Kasept
08-28-2013, 06:47 AM
Last week of Saratoga is upon us as another summer season has whistled by. Intense Travers Weekend wrapped Monday with a few odd winners that tripped a $65k carryover. Track was sealed Monday afternoon as rain was moving in, so be aware of potential for a very slick strip today, at least early on..
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, 2yo, 9f (P3, DD)
Babies going 9f so fitness and aptitude key to group with modest-dubious accomplishments up to now..
Most Likely: #3 Commissioner 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #1 Flying Joe 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Souper Lucky 4-1 2nd
2nd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Talent N Passion and Dixie Sparkle line up shoulder to shoulder and while Talent N Passion is faster, Paco Lopez picking up Dixie Sparkle likely means she'll press as best she can. They could be flying early in a duel. A loose Talent N Passion will result in a wire win..
Most Likely: #1 Talent N Passion 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Miss Da Point 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Liz Lemon 8-1 4th
3rd: NY-MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Rosie's Song 2-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Prize Taken 6-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Jupiter Moon 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Glass Aly 4-1 3rd
4th: My Flag, 3yo-F, 9f (P3, DD)
Personal Ensign was run Sunday and here's event named for her 4x G1 winning daughter by Easy Goer. Might have been more appropriate to have this back at Belmont seeing as how My Flag won BC Juvy Fllies, CCAO & Gazelle downstate and never ran particularly well at the Spa (5/0-0-2)..
Most Likely: #3 Sister State 2-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Toasting 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Profetiza 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Flash Forward 3-1 WON ($6.30)
5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)
$65k P6 C/O starts here..
End of early P4 and start of P6 sees Clement return Bluegrass Flash (Bluegrass Cat), half to recent DMR Oaks winner Discreet Marq (Discreet Cat). Horse to beat after he dwelt at start of debut and moved few beats early (VIDEO (http://www.nyra.com/saratoga/videos/race-replay/STD/2013/20130808/5/pan/)). AE Cool It, The Mooche and John Bailey all exit same heat..
Most Likely: #6 Bluegrass Flash 5-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Gridley Here 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Tapidor 7-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Rewrite History 8-1 9th
<$24 P4 Play:
2: 1-4-7
3: 3 (6-7)
4: 3-4-5-6
5: 6
Main (3 in 3rd): 2x1x4x1 = 12 x $1.50 = $18
Back-up (6-7 in 3rd): 3x1x4x1 = 12 x .50 = $6
6th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (G/S, P3, DD)
Hushion-Broman-Bernardini FTS Sleek (9-5) the obvious starting point here, but a couple big price firsters with potential (Selenite; On a Snowy Evening) are lurking and 2nd timers Canal Six and Cryptic Comet obviously can compete for top slots..
Most Likely: #1 Sleek 9-5 7th
Next Best: #8 Canal Six 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Miss Narcissist 5-2 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #2 Selenite 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 On a Snowy Evening 20-1 4th
7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Tricky, well-matched group but why not take shot with Clement first out winner Viva Allegiance (10-1) who won easily and gets ideal inside draw for this? Lezcano needs to be replaced with wrist injury that will sideline him a month..
Best Value: #1 Viva Allegiance 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Holiday's Jewel 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Caribean Beat 4-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Ceci N Red 20-1 5th
8th: 9th P. G. Johnson, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
C. Brown candidates are potent 1-2 punch, but note that horses exiting Colonial closing day stakes card have come back strong after legging up over arduous lawn and that gives La Mejor Fiesta a price look here on stretchout that should suit him..
Most Likely: #6 La Reine Bourbon 3-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Granny Mc's Kitten 5-2 WON ($5.70)
Best Value: #5 SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Candy Kitty 7-2 5th
9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (DD)
No shortage of pace here..
Most Likely: #4 Sneaky Kitten 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Gimme Credit 4-1 5th
Best Value: #12 SCR
Exotics Use: #8 Alarmed Ndangerous 5-1 3rd
10th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 8.5f-T
Best Value: #12 Indian Red 6-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Present Course 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Alvear 8-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Lasso 7-2 WON ($11.20)
<$150 P6 Play:
5: 6
6: 1
7: 1-7-10
8: 1-6
9: 3-4
10: 2-4-5-6-10-12
1x1x3x2x2x6 = 72 x $2 = $144
<$75/<$40 P4 Play:
7: 1-7-10
8: 1-6
9: 3-4
10: 2-4-5-6-10-12
3x2x2x6 = $72 ($36 for .50)
Good luck!
Steve
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, 2yo, 9f (P3, DD)
Babies going 9f so fitness and aptitude key to group with modest-dubious accomplishments up to now..
Most Likely: #3 Commissioner 5-2 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #1 Flying Joe 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #7 Souper Lucky 4-1 2nd
2nd: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Talent N Passion and Dixie Sparkle line up shoulder to shoulder and while Talent N Passion is faster, Paco Lopez picking up Dixie Sparkle likely means she'll press as best she can. They could be flying early in a duel. A loose Talent N Passion will result in a wire win..
Most Likely: #1 Talent N Passion 2-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Miss Da Point 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Liz Lemon 8-1 4th
3rd: NY-MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Rosie's Song 2-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Prize Taken 6-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Jupiter Moon 10-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Glass Aly 4-1 3rd
4th: My Flag, 3yo-F, 9f (P3, DD)
Personal Ensign was run Sunday and here's event named for her 4x G1 winning daughter by Easy Goer. Might have been more appropriate to have this back at Belmont seeing as how My Flag won BC Juvy Fllies, CCAO & Gazelle downstate and never ran particularly well at the Spa (5/0-0-2)..
Most Likely: #3 Sister State 2-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Toasting 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Profetiza 6-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Flash Forward 3-1 WON ($6.30)
5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)
$65k P6 C/O starts here..
End of early P4 and start of P6 sees Clement return Bluegrass Flash (Bluegrass Cat), half to recent DMR Oaks winner Discreet Marq (Discreet Cat). Horse to beat after he dwelt at start of debut and moved few beats early (VIDEO (http://www.nyra.com/saratoga/videos/race-replay/STD/2013/20130808/5/pan/)). AE Cool It, The Mooche and John Bailey all exit same heat..
Most Likely: #6 Bluegrass Flash 5-2 8th
Best Value: #1 Gridley Here 12-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Tapidor 7-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Rewrite History 8-1 9th
<$24 P4 Play:
2: 1-4-7
3: 3 (6-7)
4: 3-4-5-6
5: 6
Main (3 in 3rd): 2x1x4x1 = 12 x $1.50 = $18
Back-up (6-7 in 3rd): 3x1x4x1 = 12 x .50 = $6
6th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (G/S, P3, DD)
Hushion-Broman-Bernardini FTS Sleek (9-5) the obvious starting point here, but a couple big price firsters with potential (Selenite; On a Snowy Evening) are lurking and 2nd timers Canal Six and Cryptic Comet obviously can compete for top slots..
Most Likely: #1 Sleek 9-5 7th
Next Best: #8 Canal Six 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Miss Narcissist 5-2 WON ($7.10)
Best Value: #2 Selenite 12-1 3rd
Super Add: #3 On a Snowy Evening 20-1 4th
7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Tricky, well-matched group but why not take shot with Clement first out winner Viva Allegiance (10-1) who won easily and gets ideal inside draw for this? Lezcano needs to be replaced with wrist injury that will sideline him a month..
Best Value: #1 Viva Allegiance 10-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Holiday's Jewel 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #10 Caribean Beat 4-1 6th
Super Add: #8 Ceci N Red 20-1 5th
8th: 9th P. G. Johnson, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
C. Brown candidates are potent 1-2 punch, but note that horses exiting Colonial closing day stakes card have come back strong after legging up over arduous lawn and that gives La Mejor Fiesta a price look here on stretchout that should suit him..
Most Likely: #6 La Reine Bourbon 3-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Granny Mc's Kitten 5-2 WON ($5.70)
Best Value: #5 SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Candy Kitty 7-2 5th
9th: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (DD)
No shortage of pace here..
Most Likely: #4 Sneaky Kitten 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Gimme Credit 4-1 5th
Best Value: #12 SCR
Exotics Use: #8 Alarmed Ndangerous 5-1 3rd
10th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 8.5f-T
Best Value: #12 Indian Red 6-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Present Course 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Alvear 8-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Lasso 7-2 WON ($11.20)
<$150 P6 Play:
5: 6
6: 1
7: 1-7-10
8: 1-6
9: 3-4
10: 2-4-5-6-10-12
1x1x3x2x2x6 = 72 x $2 = $144
<$75/<$40 P4 Play:
7: 1-7-10
8: 1-6
9: 3-4
10: 2-4-5-6-10-12
3x2x2x6 = $72 ($36 for .50)
Good luck!
Steve