Kasept
08-25-2013, 05:41 AM
Travers Day spectacular as expected Saturday as 47,000+ thronged the Spa and a remarkable $41,000,000 passed through the windows. As good as the card and racing was, it was clearly impacted by speed-favoring surfaces the majority of the day, with turf front-runners particularly dominant. In the 8 grass events, only Why Not Whiskey and Sophie's Turn were able to come from well of the pace. Dirt performers needed to be in front or up close for most of the day as well and it wasn't until Capo Bastone's pace collapse King's Bishop win that a main track winner closed successfully.
Not to take away from any of the winners, but the stakes P4 sequence may be recalled as something of an oddity in retrospect, as it could be concluded that the 'best horse' may have been denied somehow in each of them. Mike Smith has had many great days in his Hall of Fame career, but this particular afternoon won't be remembered as one of them with rides on My Happy Face and Palace Malice that were unarguably poor. Capo Bastone is a nice horse that picked the right time to capitalize on his potential (Career best 102 Beyer), but Mentor Cane gutted anyone that ran with him through the first 6f of the King's Bishop and deserved a better fate. Laughing confirmed how good she is last month in the G1 Diana, but with the turf course lightening fast, was there ever a question that she would not be headed in the Ballston Spa?
Beyond the stakes, it was a curious day overall as well where you either needed to be on speeds from the start or adjust your play accordingly. To wit, in one of the more manic afternoons I can recall, I tabbed 7 winners on top and still managed to lose more than $400. Hope you enjoyed Travers Day and did OK. Another huge afternoon is on tap with Personal Ensign Day at the Spa and the superb Pacific Classic card slated at Del Mar!
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)
Time for Jim Bond or Bobby Ribaudo to get of the duck. Treasured and Quay will be up front and one or the other should hit the wire first..
Best Value: #1 Treasured 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Quay 2-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #11 Atlantic Dream 7-2 10th
Super Add: #6 Callana 5-1 4th
2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Gracer 3-1 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #2 Potosi's Silver 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Gratitude 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Mei Ling 5-1 3rd
3rd: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Knockher Off 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #4 Sayaprayerforme 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Irish Etiquette 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Acigarisjustacigar 6-1 4th
4th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Shankopotomus 5-2 WON ($3.90)
Next Best: #1 Radiohead 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Non Stop Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 St Liams Halo 6-1 3rd
5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Crafty Push 4-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Kaitlyn's Cat 6-1 WON ($7.50)
Exotics Use: #8 Seven Dreams 6-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Midnightinpositano 20-1 2nd
$50 P4 Play:
2: 1-2-4-5-7
3: 2-4
4: 1-2-6
5: 2-7-8
5x2x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
$0.50 Pick 4 (5,6,9/2,10/2,3,5,6/1,7) Paid $18.75 x 2 = $37.50
6th: Idle Rich, 3+, 9.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Imagining 9-5 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #4 Hobbs 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Atigun 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Sky Blazer 4-1 4th
7th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 What the Frost 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #6 All Mine Tonight 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Gee Linz 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Agillion 6-1 8th
8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Difficult start to late P4 with some expensive babies including Royal Delta's $1.6MM sister Crown Queen (Mott/Besilu) and $700k Nat Rea buy Zinzay (Arnold)..
Most Likely: #13 Hillhouse High 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Gondole 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Sabbatical 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Jamaica Bay 8-1 5th
9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Sachem Spirit 5-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Share Out 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Gentleman's Kitten 5-1 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #2 Overwhelming 8-1 3rd
10th: 66th Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DD)
Royal Delta imposing but Authenticity and On Fire Baby are within striking range and lots of odd things seem to happen in these high-profile events with small fields..
Most Likely: #2 Royal Delta 2-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #1 On Fire Baby 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Authenticity 7-2 2nd
11th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT
Terrific finale..
Most Likely: #10 Divine Luck 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Daddy Loves Gold 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Kitten's Queen 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Can't Explain 20-1 8th
<$75 P4 Play:
8: ALL
9: 2-3-4-6
10: 2
11: 2-10-11
10x4x1x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
DEL MAR
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Be Proud 5-2: Rates edge on experience.. 4th
Best Value: #4 Lady Bugatti 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Antiquity 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Elite Eight 15-1 7th
5th: 27th Del Mar Mile H. (G2), 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Obviously tough to beat..
Most Likely: #4 Obviously 3-5 WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #3 Silentio 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Tigah 4-1 5th
6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Bardstown 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Primal Instinct 5-2 5th
Best Value: #8 I Earned It Baby 15-1 WON ($34.60)
Exotics Use: #14 Touchdown Wilson 5-1 6th
7th: 28th Pat O'Brien (G2), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Goldencents 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Gonna Fly Now 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Fed Biz 9-2 WON ($17.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Wine Police 12-1 4th
8th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Lilbourne Eliza 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Bonnie Lesley 8-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Warren's Flasher 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Special Charm 15-1 9th
9th: 23rd Pacific Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (P3, DD)
Game On Dude appears way more comfortable on the DMR poly for this go around. Fun cast around him including defending winner Dullahan, Woodbine invader Delegation and 20-1 pair from 8/3 ALW..
Most Likely: #11 Game On Dude 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #3 Holding Glory 20-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Dullahan 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Delegation 8-1 8th
Super Add: #5 You Know I Know 20-1 3rd
10th: CLM, 3+, 1m (DD)
Best Value: #10 Bank the Eight 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Smokin Cat 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Diamond of Blue 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #12 Casa de Cambio 6-1 4th
11th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super Hi-5)
Best Value: #6 Awesome Okee 8-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Mr Lemon Tree 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Wings of Mojave 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Volkonsky 5-2 WON ($9.40)
Hi-5 Play: #9 Empty Headed 7-2 5th
<$50 P4 Play:
8: 3-4
9: 3-9-11
10: 8-9-10
11: 1-5-6-9-10
2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
Good luck!
Steve
Not to take away from any of the winners, but the stakes P4 sequence may be recalled as something of an oddity in retrospect, as it could be concluded that the 'best horse' may have been denied somehow in each of them. Mike Smith has had many great days in his Hall of Fame career, but this particular afternoon won't be remembered as one of them with rides on My Happy Face and Palace Malice that were unarguably poor. Capo Bastone is a nice horse that picked the right time to capitalize on his potential (Career best 102 Beyer), but Mentor Cane gutted anyone that ran with him through the first 6f of the King's Bishop and deserved a better fate. Laughing confirmed how good she is last month in the G1 Diana, but with the turf course lightening fast, was there ever a question that she would not be headed in the Ballston Spa?
Beyond the stakes, it was a curious day overall as well where you either needed to be on speeds from the start or adjust your play accordingly. To wit, in one of the more manic afternoons I can recall, I tabbed 7 winners on top and still managed to lose more than $400. Hope you enjoyed Travers Day and did OK. Another huge afternoon is on tap with Personal Ensign Day at the Spa and the superb Pacific Classic card slated at Del Mar!
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)
Time for Jim Bond or Bobby Ribaudo to get of the duck. Treasured and Quay will be up front and one or the other should hit the wire first..
Best Value: #1 Treasured 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Quay 2-1 WON ($7.80)
Exotics Use: #11 Atlantic Dream 7-2 10th
Super Add: #6 Callana 5-1 4th
2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Gracer 3-1 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #2 Potosi's Silver 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Gratitude 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Mei Ling 5-1 3rd
3rd: NY-MSW, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Knockher Off 1-1 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #4 Sayaprayerforme 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Irish Etiquette 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #7 Acigarisjustacigar 6-1 4th
4th: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Shankopotomus 5-2 WON ($3.90)
Next Best: #1 Radiohead 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Non Stop Late SCR
Exotics Use: #7 St Liams Halo 6-1 3rd
5th: CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Crafty Push 4-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Kaitlyn's Cat 6-1 WON ($7.50)
Exotics Use: #8 Seven Dreams 6-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Midnightinpositano 20-1 2nd
$50 P4 Play:
2: 1-2-4-5-7
3: 2-4
4: 1-2-6
5: 2-7-8
5x2x3x3 = 90 x .50 = $45
$0.50 Pick 4 (5,6,9/2,10/2,3,5,6/1,7) Paid $18.75 x 2 = $37.50
6th: Idle Rich, 3+, 9.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Imagining 9-5 WON ($4.70)
Best Value: #4 Hobbs 12-1 6th
Next Best: #1 Atigun 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Sky Blazer 4-1 4th
7th: NY-OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 What the Frost 5-2 WON ($6.60)
Next Best: #6 All Mine Tonight 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #7 Gee Linz 5-1 7th
Exotics Use: #9 Agillion 6-1 8th
8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 8.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Difficult start to late P4 with some expensive babies including Royal Delta's $1.6MM sister Crown Queen (Mott/Besilu) and $700k Nat Rea buy Zinzay (Arnold)..
Most Likely: #13 Hillhouse High 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Gondole 12-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Sabbatical 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Jamaica Bay 8-1 5th
9th: OC/N2X, 3+, 9f-IT (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Sachem Spirit 5-2 4th
Best Value: #3 Share Out 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Gentleman's Kitten 5-1 WON ($8.90)
Exotics Use: #2 Overwhelming 8-1 3rd
10th: 66th Personal Ensign (G1), F&M-3+, 9f (DD)
Royal Delta imposing but Authenticity and On Fire Baby are within striking range and lots of odd things seem to happen in these high-profile events with small fields..
Most Likely: #2 Royal Delta 2-5 WON ($3.10)
Best Value: #1 On Fire Baby 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Authenticity 7-2 2nd
11th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-IT
Terrific finale..
Most Likely: #10 Divine Luck 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #11 Daddy Loves Gold 10-1 5th
Next Best: #2 Kitten's Queen 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Can't Explain 20-1 8th
<$75 P4 Play:
8: ALL
9: 2-3-4-6
10: 2
11: 2-10-11
10x4x1x3 = 120 x .50 = $60
DEL MAR
POST-SCRATCHES
4th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Be Proud 5-2: Rates edge on experience.. 4th
Best Value: #4 Lady Bugatti 6-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Antiquity 3-1 WON ($8.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Elite Eight 15-1 7th
5th: 27th Del Mar Mile H. (G2), 3+, 1m-T (P3, DD)
Obviously tough to beat..
Most Likely: #4 Obviously 3-5 WON ($2.60)
Next Best: #3 Silentio 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Tigah 4-1 5th
6th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Bardstown 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Primal Instinct 5-2 5th
Best Value: #8 I Earned It Baby 15-1 WON ($34.60)
Exotics Use: #14 Touchdown Wilson 5-1 6th
7th: 28th Pat O'Brien (G2), 3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Goldencents 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Gonna Fly Now 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Fed Biz 9-2 WON ($17.60)
Exotics Use: #8 Wine Police 12-1 4th
8th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Lilbourne Eliza 3-1 5th
Best Value: #4 Bonnie Lesley 8-1 4th
Next Best: #11 Warren's Flasher 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Special Charm 15-1 9th
9th: 23rd Pacific Classic (G1), 3+, 10f (P3, DD)
Game On Dude appears way more comfortable on the DMR poly for this go around. Fun cast around him including defending winner Dullahan, Woodbine invader Delegation and 20-1 pair from 8/3 ALW..
Most Likely: #11 Game On Dude 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Best Value: #3 Holding Glory 20-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Dullahan 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Delegation 8-1 8th
Super Add: #5 You Know I Know 20-1 3rd
10th: CLM, 3+, 1m (DD)
Best Value: #10 Bank the Eight 8-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Smokin Cat 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #8 Diamond of Blue 5-1 WON ($6.60)
Super Add: #12 Casa de Cambio 6-1 4th
11th: Cal-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T (Super Hi-5)
Best Value: #6 Awesome Okee 8-1 9th
Next Best: #1 Mr Lemon Tree 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Wings of Mojave 8-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Volkonsky 5-2 WON ($9.40)
Hi-5 Play: #9 Empty Headed 7-2 5th
<$50 P4 Play:
8: 3-4
9: 3-9-11
10: 8-9-10
11: 1-5-6-9-10
2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
Good luck!
Steve