Kasept
08-23-2013, 06:40 AM
Smallest Saratoga card in recent weeks was a lot of fun Thursday and some good ideas started with a terrific runner-up effort from 11-1 All Together in the G1 NY Turf Writers Cup. Solid prices all afternoon made for big horizontal and vertical mutuels when you connected, with the elusive P4's returning $1,260 early and $1,905 late. A $47k carryover was a remnant of the tricky P6 sequence.
Cheyenne Nation keyed a nice $114 tri and $546 super in the 6th while Kiaran McLaughlin indeed got another firster home as Sky Painter tipped the 7th race $118 triple off his $18.00 win tote. With Sugar On Top killed any multi-race momentum I had in the 8th ahead of a good finish in the turf sprint scramble nightcap. Hope everyone got something along the way. Finally got a soaking rain overnight which should help the turf courses into the big Travers Weekend that starts today with a terrific G1 Ballerina..
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)
Kowboy King a half to Regally Ready; Mischieviously a half to Gone Astray..
Most Likely: #1 Havana 2-1 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #5 Kendall's Boy 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Chomsky 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Roberto Gato 20-1 7th
2nd: Chowder's First-NY, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)
The Lumber Guy back with Hushion after disastrous winter in California and returns in this tough spot. Imposing on best and seems to be coming around based on drills, but plenty vulnerable at a short price..
Most Likely: #3 The Lumber Guy 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Palace 12-1 WON ($27.00)
Next Best: #2 N. F.'s Destiny 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Spa City Fever 10-1 4th
3rd: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Crackerjack Jones 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Driven by Solar 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Writingonthewall 4-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Dehere of the Cat 6-1 3rd
4th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 (POE) Yo Blue 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #4 Bashful Bandit 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Unbridled Logic 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Pyro City 6-1 5th
5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)
$47k P6 C/O starts here..
Quirky end to P4 and start of P6. 8-5 ML choice Ainteasybringgreen is filly v. C&G's that faced open company in debut. Feels shaky..
Most Likely: #3 Ziggy the Great 3-1 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #2 Mommas Mark 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Ainteasybringgreen 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Maybrys Challenge 7-2 7th
<$50 P4 Play:
2: 3-6
3: 1-3-4
4: 1-4-7
5: 1-2-3-5-7
2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
$0.50 Pick 4 (6/4/1,5,10/3) Paid $457.50
6th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Lutesifer 7-2 4th
Next Best: #1e Klaravich entry 5-2 WON ($8.80)
Best Value: #6 Optionality 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Spintastic 5-1 2nd
7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Not sure what is so special about 3-1 Linda Rice entry..
Most Likely: #8 Bustle 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Next Best: #9 Alwaysinmycircle 6-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Group Therapy 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Casual Elegance 6-1 9th
8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Likewise, 3-1 Elusive Rumour needs to improve to beat several here..
Most Likely: #3 Double the Energy 7-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Jitney 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Subtle 4-1 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #5 Elusive Rumour 3-1 7th
9th: 35th Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (DD)
Outstanding start to the Travers Weekend Stakes activity with deep, talented assembly of sprinting fillies & mares. Make 1-3-5-6-8 the pool of likeliest winners with Book Review an underlay as 5-2 ML fave. Dance to Bristol remarkably plucky when rallying through trouble in Honourable Miss. Versatile and 7 panels is probably her best trip..
Most Likely: #1 Dance to Bristol 3-1 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #8 Late SCR
Next Best: #6 Starship Truffles 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Glorious View 20-1 10th
10th: MSW, 3+, 9f-IT
Super competitive finale. Yeesh..
Most Likely: #2 Secretive 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Brilliant Command 15-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #11 Marine Patrol 7-2 9th
<$150 P6 Play:
5: 1-2-3-7
6: 1-4
7: 8
8: 3-7-8
9: 1-6-8
10: 2
4x2x1x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144
$2 Pick 6 (3/1/3,8,11,12/6,8,10,12,13,14,15/1/3) Paid $67.00 (5OF6)
<$50 P4 Play:
7: 5-6-7-8-9
8: 3-7-8
9: 1-6-8
10: 2-7
5x3x3x2 = 90 x .50 = $45
Good luck!
Steve
Cheyenne Nation keyed a nice $114 tri and $546 super in the 6th while Kiaran McLaughlin indeed got another firster home as Sky Painter tipped the 7th race $118 triple off his $18.00 win tote. With Sugar On Top killed any multi-race momentum I had in the 8th ahead of a good finish in the turf sprint scramble nightcap. Hope everyone got something along the way. Finally got a soaking rain overnight which should help the turf courses into the big Travers Weekend that starts today with a terrific G1 Ballerina..
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: MSW, 2yo, 5.5f (P3, DD)
Kowboy King a half to Regally Ready; Mischieviously a half to Gone Astray..
Most Likely: #1 Havana 2-1 WON ($2.80)
Next Best: #5 Kendall's Boy 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Chomsky 5-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #9 Roberto Gato 20-1 7th
2nd: Chowder's First-NY, 3+, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)
The Lumber Guy back with Hushion after disastrous winter in California and returns in this tough spot. Imposing on best and seems to be coming around based on drills, but plenty vulnerable at a short price..
Most Likely: #3 The Lumber Guy 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Palace 12-1 WON ($27.00)
Next Best: #2 N. F.'s Destiny 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1a (POE) Spa City Fever 10-1 4th
3rd: NY-OC/N2X, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Crackerjack Jones 3-1 5th
Best Value: #3 Driven by Solar 6-1 4th
Next Best: #4 Writingonthewall 4-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Dehere of the Cat 6-1 3rd
4th: CLM, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 (POE) Yo Blue 6-5 WON ($3.60)
Best Value: #4 Bashful Bandit 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #7 Unbridled Logic 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Pyro City 6-1 5th
5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)
$47k P6 C/O starts here..
Quirky end to P4 and start of P6. 8-5 ML choice Ainteasybringgreen is filly v. C&G's that faced open company in debut. Feels shaky..
Most Likely: #3 Ziggy the Great 3-1 WON ($6.70)
Best Value: #2 Mommas Mark 6-1 4th
Next Best: #7 Ainteasybringgreen 8-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #1 Maybrys Challenge 7-2 7th
<$50 P4 Play:
2: 3-6
3: 1-3-4
4: 1-4-7
5: 1-2-3-5-7
2x3x3x5 = 90 x .50 = $45
$0.50 Pick 4 (6/4/1,5,10/3) Paid $457.50
6th: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 7f (G/S, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Lutesifer 7-2 4th
Next Best: #1e Klaravich entry 5-2 WON ($8.80)
Best Value: #6 Optionality 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #3 Spintastic 5-1 2nd
7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Not sure what is so special about 3-1 Linda Rice entry..
Most Likely: #8 Bustle 4-1 WON ($7.40)
Next Best: #9 Alwaysinmycircle 6-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Group Therapy 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Casual Elegance 6-1 9th
8th: NY-OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Likewise, 3-1 Elusive Rumour needs to improve to beat several here..
Most Likely: #3 Double the Energy 7-2 6th
Best Value: #7 Jitney 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Subtle 4-1 WON ($6.70)
Exotics Use: #5 Elusive Rumour 3-1 7th
9th: 35th Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (DD)
Outstanding start to the Travers Weekend Stakes activity with deep, talented assembly of sprinting fillies & mares. Make 1-3-5-6-8 the pool of likeliest winners with Book Review an underlay as 5-2 ML fave. Dance to Bristol remarkably plucky when rallying through trouble in Honourable Miss. Versatile and 7 panels is probably her best trip..
Most Likely: #1 Dance to Bristol 3-1 WON ($5.50)
Best Value: #8 Late SCR
Next Best: #6 Starship Truffles 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Glorious View 20-1 10th
10th: MSW, 3+, 9f-IT
Super competitive finale. Yeesh..
Most Likely: #2 Secretive 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #7 Brilliant Command 15-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #11 Marine Patrol 7-2 9th
<$150 P6 Play:
5: 1-2-3-7
6: 1-4
7: 8
8: 3-7-8
9: 1-6-8
10: 2
4x2x1x3x3x1 = 72 x $2 = $144
$2 Pick 6 (3/1/3,8,11,12/6,8,10,12,13,14,15/1/3) Paid $67.00 (5OF6)
<$50 P4 Play:
7: 5-6-7-8-9
8: 3-7-8
9: 1-6-8
10: 2-7
5x3x3x2 = 90 x .50 = $45
Good luck!
Steve