Kasept
08-21-2013, 06:31 AM
Was rolling along through Monday card until like most others, was tripped up by a pair of difficult winners in the late double. The after effect of $39.20 She's Not Lazy (hard-to-like) and $46.00 Luminuese (impossible-to-like) was a $22k P4 (.50!) and $61k carryover into today's challenging action. There were a number of good ideas up until the late double and I hope everyone did well. Travers Week and the final fortnight of the season are here and the cards leading into today's Travers Day draw are terrific..
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)
All firsters so you're looking for win-early pedigrees, win-early outfits and sharp gate workers..
Best Value: #4 Court Dancer 6-1 WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #2 Margaret Ownzit 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Isabelle 6-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Fee and Sugar 3-1 6th
2nd: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Bit of a chess match from a pace standpoint..
Best Value: #2 Nothing But Air 5-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Queen Mercury 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Tanglewood Tale 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Super Add: #3 Quiet Sunshine 8-1 6th
3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Hard to separate 2-3-4-5-6 in this turf dash set.
Most Likely: #3 Dust Em Mick 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Imanindianoutlaw 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Regal Joanne 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Sweet Sway 5-1 3rd
4th: Dance of Life, 3yo, 1m-IT (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Winning Cause 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 One More Cat 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Sayaad 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Hamp 12-1 5th
5th: OC-S-ALW, 3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)
$61k P6 C/O starts here..
Most Likely: #5 Point Taken 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #7 Tuvia's Force 2-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Giant Indian 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Cinnamon Beach 12-1 7th
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 2-6-7
3: 3-4-5-6
4: 1-3-4-6-7
5: 5-7
3x4x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
$.50 P4 (6-2/6-3-5) Paid $25.60
6th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)
If unfamiliar with Penn National workout times, the breezes Fly Solo has been turning in are sharp. Gets back on proper surface for her too. Kind of cool that Adam Kitchingman comes to town with a few including major King's Bishop player Let Em Shine..
Most Likely: #4 Fly Solo 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1a (POE) I'm Smokin Hot 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Chessrate 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 With Diamonds 7-2 WON ($5.60)
7th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
SCR of Easement complicates this..
Most Likely: #6 Apex 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #8 Cowboy Prince 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Foggy Road 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Let's Have Us One 7-2 3rd
8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Ruslana 2-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Zindaya 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Ireland 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Zip On 8-1 4th
9th: 36th Albany-NY, 3yo, 9f (DD)
Amberjack looks for Big Apple Triple which is frequently more difficult than anticipated..
Most Likely: #4 Amberjack 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Go Get the Basil 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Escapefromreality 7-2 WON ($8.30)
Exotics Use: #2 Smooth Bert 5-1 3rd
10th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 9f-IT
Thoroughly odd group. Taking shots..
Best Value: #2 Disaster Relief 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Cielo Soleggiato 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Horse Latitudes 7-2 WON ($14.20)
Super Add: #10 Hezro 10-1 2nd
<$150 P6 Play:
5: 5-7
6: 4
7: 6
8: 1-2-3-5-6
9: 4
10: 2-4-6-8-10
2x1x1x5x1x5 = 50 x $2 = $100
<$50 P4 Play:
7: 4-6-7-8
8: 1-2-3-5-6
9: 4
10: 2-4-6-8-10
4x5x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
Back-up (w/ Go Get the Basil):
7: 4-6-7-8
8: 3-6
9: 6
10: 2-4-6-8-10
4x2x1x5 = 40 x .50 = $20
Good luck!
Steve
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)
All firsters so you're looking for win-early pedigrees, win-early outfits and sharp gate workers..
Best Value: #4 Court Dancer 6-1 WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #2 Margaret Ownzit 5-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #6 Isabelle 6-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Fee and Sugar 3-1 6th
2nd: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Bit of a chess match from a pace standpoint..
Best Value: #2 Nothing But Air 5-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Queen Mercury 3-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Tanglewood Tale 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Super Add: #3 Quiet Sunshine 8-1 6th
3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Hard to separate 2-3-4-5-6 in this turf dash set.
Most Likely: #3 Dust Em Mick 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Imanindianoutlaw 5-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Regal Joanne 5-2 WON ($5.40)
Exotics Use: #4 Sweet Sway 5-1 3rd
4th: Dance of Life, 3yo, 1m-IT (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #1 Winning Cause 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 One More Cat 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Sayaad 5-2 WON ($6.80)
Exotics Use: #4 Hamp 12-1 5th
5th: OC-S-ALW, 3+, 9f (P6, P3, DD)
$61k P6 C/O starts here..
Most Likely: #5 Point Taken 3-1 WON ($5.60)
Next Best: #7 Tuvia's Force 2-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Giant Indian 15-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Cinnamon Beach 12-1 7th
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 2-6-7
3: 3-4-5-6
4: 1-3-4-6-7
5: 5-7
3x4x5x2 = 120 x .50 = $60
$.50 P4 (6-2/6-3-5) Paid $25.60
6th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)
If unfamiliar with Penn National workout times, the breezes Fly Solo has been turning in are sharp. Gets back on proper surface for her too. Kind of cool that Adam Kitchingman comes to town with a few including major King's Bishop player Let Em Shine..
Most Likely: #4 Fly Solo 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #1a (POE) I'm Smokin Hot 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #2 Chessrate 10-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 With Diamonds 7-2 WON ($5.60)
7th: MCLM/$40k, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
SCR of Easement complicates this..
Most Likely: #6 Apex 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Best Value: #8 Cowboy Prince 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Foggy Road 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Let's Have Us One 7-2 3rd
8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Ruslana 2-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Zindaya 5-1 2nd
Best Value: #2 Ireland 15-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Zip On 8-1 4th
9th: 36th Albany-NY, 3yo, 9f (DD)
Amberjack looks for Big Apple Triple which is frequently more difficult than anticipated..
Most Likely: #4 Amberjack 4-5 2nd
Best Value: #6 Go Get the Basil 6-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Escapefromreality 7-2 WON ($8.30)
Exotics Use: #2 Smooth Bert 5-1 3rd
10th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 9f-IT
Thoroughly odd group. Taking shots..
Best Value: #2 Disaster Relief 12-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Cielo Soleggiato 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #4 Horse Latitudes 7-2 WON ($14.20)
Super Add: #10 Hezro 10-1 2nd
<$150 P6 Play:
5: 5-7
6: 4
7: 6
8: 1-2-3-5-6
9: 4
10: 2-4-6-8-10
2x1x1x5x1x5 = 50 x $2 = $100
<$50 P4 Play:
7: 4-6-7-8
8: 1-2-3-5-6
9: 4
10: 2-4-6-8-10
4x5x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50
Back-up (w/ Go Get the Basil):
7: 4-6-7-8
8: 3-6
9: 6
10: 2-4-6-8-10
4x2x1x5 = 40 x .50 = $20
Good luck!
Steve