Kasept
08-17-2013, 06:06 AM
Saturday looms as tremendous a day of racing as players and fans will find all year. The cards at Saratoga (Alabama/Sword Dancer), Arlington (Million Day) and Del Mar (Oaks and more) -- let alone some excellent spots elsewhere around North America's ovals -- are terrific. Enter the day off another grind-it-out afternoon at Saratoga that included a modest $229 late P4 hit made possible by $20 Ballistic Sue's courageous turf sprint win. Hope everyone did well and are ready for a spectacular afternoon and evening!
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Baffling opener with a number of droppers involved. One element to grab on to is lack over overwhelming pace. Colorme Kitten and My Daughter's Song are the fast ones early..
Most Likely: #6 Ideal Place 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 My Daughter's Song 10-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Colorme Kitten 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Miss Sweet Afleet 10-1 7th
2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Predictably premium MDN group with a couple working particularly well. Watch board for additional clues..
Most Likely: #3 Tapiture 3-1: Asmussen barn rife with 2yo's.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Crescent 5-2: Owns experience.. 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Rebranded 7-2: Rail never a bargain.. 3rd
Best Value: #7 Permanent Campaign 6-1: Added ground may suit.. 5th
3rd: NY-MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
My Italian Ices (9-2) can be on loose lead. Ocala Jim owns my favorite triple whammy (Dropping down, cutting back, turf to dirt)..
Best Value: #5 My Italian Ices 9-2 7th
Next Best: #6 Ocala Jim 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Pete and David 4-1 5th
Super Add: #7 My Teddy Bear 15-1 3rd
4th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)
Sliver and Onions takes next step and seems prudent to believe that he's pretty darn good until proven otherwise..
Most Likely: #6 Sliver and Onions 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Magic Harbor 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Golden Lad 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Midnight Taboo 9-2 WON ($8.70)
5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)
Thoroughly wide open that features some hard-knocking of 7yo's (Minnie Punt, Perfect Footprint, Livingston Street that have won 25 races and a bit under $1,000,000 between them. Throw in 6yo Thunder Brew and Westside Corral and it's 35 wins and $1,500,000..
Best Value: #10 Annawon 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Westside Corral 3-1 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Thunder Brew 6-1 11th
Super Add: #1 Minnie Punt 4-1 4th
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 1-3-4-7
3: 3-5-6
4: 2-3-6
5: 1-6-9-10
4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Nicely matched field of state bred turf sprinters. Another open event..
Best Value: #8 Lord of Love 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Iron Power 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Ginger's Joe 30-1 11th
Super Add: #6 The Big Deluxe 8-1 9th
7th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)
Another fun betting affair..
Most Likely: #6 Gold Megillah 7-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Lawyer Jim 10-1 WON ($13.20)
Best Value: #1 Attenborough 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Tater Downs 4-1 2nd
8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)
Another intriguing set and since not part of the P4, we can play against iffy-on-lawn 7-2 fave Now and Then..
Most Likely: #6 Royal Blessing 4-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Ambersand 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Sandyinthesun 30-1 WON ($49.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Master Wesley 5-1 6th
9th: 39th Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Terrific edition of this event which frequently suffers from date share with Arlington Million. Race starts with Man O'War players (Boisterous-Twilight Eclipse-Exclusive Strike-Optimizer-Al Khali) and fans from there. Big Blue Kitten needs to be respected and note that a big effort from will reflect positively on Real Solution in the Million later. Alan Goldberg & Richard Santulli bring 4yo filly Tannery to this spot which is enough to make you look twice at her. Euro import Nutello is an unknown quantity who was better at 3..
Most Likely: #10 Boisterous 5-2 8th
Best Value: #9 Exclusive Strike 15-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Twilight Eclipse 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Tannery 20-1 4th
10th: 133rd Alabama (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (P3, DD)
Hard to see Princess getting beat, but remember that 10f is a new trip for these. Lightly raced Carnival Court adds Lasix and may be the one to reel in late..
Most Likely: #4 Princess of Sylmar 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #5 Carnival Court 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Fiftyshadesofhay 2-1 2nd
11th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)
Not a great advertisement for Bernardini in this $25k blue light special as Darley gives away $750,000 Pentagram and Repole shops $350,000 So Outspoken..
Most Likely: #12 Tiu 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Ryvit 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Fiddlers Tango 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 So Outspoken 5-2 WON ($8.40)
12th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f
Most Likely: #3 Native Singer 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Mr. G Zee 12-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Shot to Win 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Bernardo 10-1 3rd
<$75 P4 Play:
9: 4-9-10
10: 4 (5)
11: 6-9-10-12
12: 3-7-9-10
Main ($1-Princess): 3x1x4x4 = $48
Back-up (.50-Carnival): 3x1x4x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
ARLINGTON PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
7th: 2nd American St. Leger, 3+, 13.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Wigmore Hall 7-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Najjaar 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Dandino 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Suntracer 8-1 2nd
8th: 37th Secretariat (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #9 Jack Milton 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Draw Two 6-1 4th
Next Best: #13 Tattenham 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Stormy Len 15-1 2nd
9th: 24th Beverly D (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Dank 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #6 Marketing Mix 2-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Solid Appeal 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Gifted Girl 12-1 2nd
10th: 31st Arlington Million (G1), 3+, 10f-T ((P3, DD)
Most Likely: #13 Grandeur 7-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Real Solution 10-1 WON ($18.80)-Elevated from 2nd
Next Best: #7 Indy Point 9-2 13th
Exotics Use: #10 The Apache 6-1 2nd-DQ'd from Win
<$50 P4 Play:
7: 4-5-7-8
8: 9-12-13
9: 3-4-5-6
10: 1-13
4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
DEL MAR
PRE-SCRATCHES
7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Best Value: #5 Master Cip 10-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Germany Bay 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Carbonite 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Real Conundrum 10-1 5th
8th:57th Del Mar Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD)
Best Value: #2 Discreet Marq 5-1 WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #6 Kitten's Dumplings 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Emotional Kitten 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Wishing Gate 7-2 2nd
9th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F,
Best Value: #9 My Lucky Rose 5-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Heaven and Earth 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #3 In Dad's Honor 9-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Too Obvious 6-1 4th
10th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #1 Corlett Drive 5-1 -
Best Value: #3 Atlantic Swing 15-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Warren's Veneda 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Star Vesta 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Branding 7-2 -
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 5-11
8: 1-2-4-6-9
9: 1-3-8-9-10
10: 1-3-4
2x5x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75
Good luck!
Steve
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Baffling opener with a number of droppers involved. One element to grab on to is lack over overwhelming pace. Colorme Kitten and My Daughter's Song are the fast ones early..
Most Likely: #6 Ideal Place 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #4 My Daughter's Song 10-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Colorme Kitten 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Miss Sweet Afleet 10-1 7th
2nd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P4, P3, DD)
Predictably premium MDN group with a couple working particularly well. Watch board for additional clues..
Most Likely: #3 Tapiture 3-1: Asmussen barn rife with 2yo's.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Crescent 5-2: Owns experience.. 8th
Exotics Use: #1 Rebranded 7-2: Rail never a bargain.. 3rd
Best Value: #7 Permanent Campaign 6-1: Added ground may suit.. 5th
3rd: NY-MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
My Italian Ices (9-2) can be on loose lead. Ocala Jim owns my favorite triple whammy (Dropping down, cutting back, turf to dirt)..
Best Value: #5 My Italian Ices 9-2 7th
Next Best: #6 Ocala Jim 2-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Pete and David 4-1 5th
Super Add: #7 My Teddy Bear 15-1 3rd
4th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)
Sliver and Onions takes next step and seems prudent to believe that he's pretty darn good until proven otherwise..
Most Likely: #6 Sliver and Onions 3-1 5th
Best Value: #2 Magic Harbor 8-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Golden Lad 7-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Midnight Taboo 9-2 WON ($8.70)
5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)
Thoroughly wide open that features some hard-knocking of 7yo's (Minnie Punt, Perfect Footprint, Livingston Street that have won 25 races and a bit under $1,000,000 between them. Throw in 6yo Thunder Brew and Westside Corral and it's 35 wins and $1,500,000..
Best Value: #10 Annawon 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #9 Westside Corral 3-1 WON ($12.40)
Exotics Use: #6 Thunder Brew 6-1 11th
Super Add: #1 Minnie Punt 4-1 4th
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 1-3-4-7
3: 3-5-6
4: 2-3-6
5: 1-6-9-10
4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Nicely matched field of state bred turf sprinters. Another open event..
Best Value: #8 Lord of Love 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Iron Power 6-1 8th
Exotics Use: #9 Ginger's Joe 30-1 11th
Super Add: #6 The Big Deluxe 8-1 9th
7th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P6, P3, DD)
Another fun betting affair..
Most Likely: #6 Gold Megillah 7-2 6th
Next Best: #5 Lawyer Jim 10-1 WON ($13.20)
Best Value: #1 Attenborough 20-1 7th
Exotics Use: #12 Tater Downs 4-1 2nd
8th: OC/N1X, 3+, 9.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)
Another intriguing set and since not part of the P4, we can play against iffy-on-lawn 7-2 fave Now and Then..
Most Likely: #6 Royal Blessing 4-1 4th
Next Best: #2 Ambersand 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 Sandyinthesun 30-1 WON ($49.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Master Wesley 5-1 6th
9th: 39th Sword Dancer (G1), 3+, 12f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Terrific edition of this event which frequently suffers from date share with Arlington Million. Race starts with Man O'War players (Boisterous-Twilight Eclipse-Exclusive Strike-Optimizer-Al Khali) and fans from there. Big Blue Kitten needs to be respected and note that a big effort from will reflect positively on Real Solution in the Million later. Alan Goldberg & Richard Santulli bring 4yo filly Tannery to this spot which is enough to make you look twice at her. Euro import Nutello is an unknown quantity who was better at 3..
Most Likely: #10 Boisterous 5-2 8th
Best Value: #9 Exclusive Strike 15-1 9th
Next Best: #4 Twilight Eclipse 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Tannery 20-1 4th
10th: 133rd Alabama (G1), 3yo-F, 10f (P3, DD)
Hard to see Princess getting beat, but remember that 10f is a new trip for these. Lightly raced Carnival Court adds Lasix and may be the one to reel in late..
Most Likely: #4 Princess of Sylmar 3-5 WON ($3.00)
Best Value: #5 Carnival Court 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Fiftyshadesofhay 2-1 2nd
11th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 8.5f-IT (DD)
Not a great advertisement for Bernardini in this $25k blue light special as Darley gives away $750,000 Pentagram and Repole shops $350,000 So Outspoken..
Most Likely: #12 Tiu 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Ryvit 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Fiddlers Tango 20-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 So Outspoken 5-2 WON ($8.40)
12th: NY-MSW, 3+, 7f
Most Likely: #3 Native Singer 3-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Mr. G Zee 12-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Shot to Win 4-1 9th
Exotics Use: #9 Bernardo 10-1 3rd
<$75 P4 Play:
9: 4-9-10
10: 4 (5)
11: 6-9-10-12
12: 3-7-9-10
Main ($1-Princess): 3x1x4x4 = $48
Back-up (.50-Carnival): 3x1x4x4 = 48 x .50 = $24
ARLINGTON PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
7th: 2nd American St. Leger, 3+, 13.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Wigmore Hall 7-2 5th
Best Value: #7 Najjaar 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 Dandino 9-5 WON ($3.60)
Exotics Use: #5 Suntracer 8-1 2nd
8th: 37th Secretariat (G1), 3yo, 10f-T (P5, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #9 Jack Milton 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 Draw Two 6-1 4th
Next Best: #13 Tattenham 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Stormy Len 15-1 2nd
9th: 24th Beverly D (G1), F&M-3+, 9.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #4 Dank 7-2 WON ($8.40)
Next Best: #6 Marketing Mix 2-1 4th
Best Value: #3 Solid Appeal 10-1 6th
Exotics Use: #5 Gifted Girl 12-1 2nd
10th: 31st Arlington Million (G1), 3+, 10f-T ((P3, DD)
Most Likely: #13 Grandeur 7-2 7th
Best Value: #1 Real Solution 10-1 WON ($18.80)-Elevated from 2nd
Next Best: #7 Indy Point 9-2 13th
Exotics Use: #10 The Apache 6-1 2nd-DQ'd from Win
<$50 P4 Play:
7: 4-5-7-8
8: 9-12-13
9: 3-4-5-6
10: 1-13
4x3x4x2 = 96 x .50 = $48
DEL MAR
PRE-SCRATCHES
7th: OC/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Best Value: #5 Master Cip 10-1 10th
Next Best: #11 Germany Bay 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #12 Carbonite 8-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Real Conundrum 10-1 5th
8th:57th Del Mar Oaks (G1), 3yo-F, 9f-T (P3, DD)
Best Value: #2 Discreet Marq 5-1 WON ($11.40)
Next Best: #6 Kitten's Dumplings 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #4 Emotional Kitten 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Wishing Gate 7-2 2nd
9th: Cal-MSW, 2yo-F,
Best Value: #9 My Lucky Rose 5-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Heaven and Earth 7-2 9th
Exotics Use: #3 In Dad's Honor 9-2 7th
Super Add: #10 Too Obvious 6-1 4th
10th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 1m (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #1 Corlett Drive 5-1 -
Best Value: #3 Atlantic Swing 15-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Warren's Veneda 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Exotics Use: #2 Star Vesta 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #8 Branding 7-2 -
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 5-11
8: 1-2-4-6-9
9: 1-3-8-9-10
10: 1-3-4
2x5x5x3 = 150 x .50 = $75
Good luck!
Steve