Kasept
08-15-2013, 06:15 AM
After all the talk this summer regarding steward decisions, had to face down one Wednesday night that ended up costing real money. Edwin Maldonado and Distinctiv Passion were taken down from the Green Flash win at Del Mar, a move that was the difference between a P6 hit of an estimated $22k (parlay) and a conso of $580. Did Distinctiv Passion have to come down? Maybe not. But Maldonado's steady left hand whipping caused the winner to clearly come out 3+ paths and into Gary Stevens and Strong Wind.
While it may not have been decisive in terms of the outcome of the individual race, the desire to see the stewards uniformly adjudicate incidents of this kind demands understanding and acceptance of the decision despite the impact on one's self. And yes, it's the biggest negative financial impact I've experienced from a steward call in the 20+ years I've played.. Now the good news; it was a great night at Del Mar with a variety of bonus mutuels that more than offset all the P6 investments of the past 4 Wednesdays. To me, the key to the P6 and other good results was finding $20.60 Bas in the 4th race, a filly that was more lightly raced than the rest of the field and had an effort 2 back that made her eligible to upset. The $350 P4 was boosted by Mike Mitchell's Dolphin Shorts ($15.20) in the finale. Hope everyone did well.
Jumper Double opens the Spa action Thursday after a Wednesday slate that was rendered humdrum by the off turf SCR's and a parade of chalk. Having walked over the main track to watch the turf stake 6th, can tell you that the strip was very tight which aided on pace runners with no one coming from further than 1.5 lengths behind to win. I think you can expect the surface to be more fair Thursday..
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: OC/N2L, 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)
Best Value: #7 Cognashene 20-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Total Command 4-1 DNF-Rider fell
Exotics Use: #4 Apse 8-1 WON ($14.60)
Super Add: #10 Kingdom 3-1 2nd
2nd: Michael Walsh Novice S., 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Cat Feathers 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Alajmal 20-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Barnstorming 5-2 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Extraextraordinary 5-1 3rd
3rd: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P4, P3, DD)
Pure Sensation is likely out of the debut v. Corfu and goes in as non-favorite..
Most Likely: #3 Pure Sensation 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Divine Energy 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Pecorino 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Enthrone 10-1 5th
4th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)
Yeesh.. Other than outsiders (2-3), field separated by less than lengths. Using all 5 of these in multis..
Most Likely: #1 Sneaky Blowout 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Speechmaker 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Brabbham 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 All That 4-1 WON ($10.60)
5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Flowing Mane 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Mr. Starr's Report 15-1 WON ($20.80)
Next Best: #10 Saved the Best 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Summer Sands 6-1 4th
6th: CLM ($100k), 3yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Much Stronger 3-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #8 Jumpinofftheedge 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Perilous Indian 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Ration 8-1 4th
$25 P4 Play:
3: 3
4: 1-4-5-7-8
5: 3-5-6-7-10
6: 5
1x5x5x1 = $25
7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Flying K C 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Hot Squeeze 10-1 WON ($14.40)
Next Best: #7 Hangingwithsonny 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 May Shares 4-1 2nd
8th: 34th West Point-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Really good edition of this..
Most Likely: #2 Lubash 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Mr. Vegas 10-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Kharafa 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Hangover Kid 6-1 WON ($13.80)
9th: OC/C, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)
Stakes quality field and plenty tough to decipher..
Most Likely: #3 Slumber 4-1 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #5 Teaks North 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Sky Blazer 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Reflecting 6-1 3rd
10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (DD)
Most Likely: #6 LATE SCR
Best Value: #9 Beer Garden 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Monument Hill 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Tiz Gianni 10-1 9th
11th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 5.5f-T
Most Likely: #8 Show Some Lovin 7-2 WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #1 Freight 4-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Southern Safari 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Hoboken Joe 3-1 5th
<$50 P4 Play:
8: 1-2-8-10
9: 3-4-5
10: 6-9
11: 1-8-9-10
4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
Good luck!
Steve
While it may not have been decisive in terms of the outcome of the individual race, the desire to see the stewards uniformly adjudicate incidents of this kind demands understanding and acceptance of the decision despite the impact on one's self. And yes, it's the biggest negative financial impact I've experienced from a steward call in the 20+ years I've played.. Now the good news; it was a great night at Del Mar with a variety of bonus mutuels that more than offset all the P6 investments of the past 4 Wednesdays. To me, the key to the P6 and other good results was finding $20.60 Bas in the 4th race, a filly that was more lightly raced than the rest of the field and had an effort 2 back that made her eligible to upset. The $350 P4 was boosted by Mike Mitchell's Dolphin Shorts ($15.20) in the finale. Hope everyone did well.
Jumper Double opens the Spa action Thursday after a Wednesday slate that was rendered humdrum by the off turf SCR's and a parade of chalk. Having walked over the main track to watch the turf stake 6th, can tell you that the strip was very tight which aided on pace runners with no one coming from further than 1.5 lengths behind to win. I think you can expect the surface to be more fair Thursday..
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: OC/N2L, 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)
Best Value: #7 Cognashene 20-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Total Command 4-1 DNF-Rider fell
Exotics Use: #4 Apse 8-1 WON ($14.60)
Super Add: #10 Kingdom 3-1 2nd
2nd: Michael Walsh Novice S., 4+, 19f-National Fences (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Cat Feathers 6-1 4th
Best Value: #6 Alajmal 20-1 6th
Next Best: #8 Barnstorming 5-2 WON ($13.80)
Exotics Use: #2 Extraextraordinary 5-1 3rd
3rd: MSW, 2yo, 5f (P4, P3, DD)
Pure Sensation is likely out of the debut v. Corfu and goes in as non-favorite..
Most Likely: #3 Pure Sensation 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #7 Divine Energy 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Pecorino 3-1 3rd
Super Add: #5 Enthrone 10-1 5th
4th: MSW, 3+, 9f (P3, DD)
Yeesh.. Other than outsiders (2-3), field separated by less than lengths. Using all 5 of these in multis..
Most Likely: #1 Sneaky Blowout 3-1 4th
Best Value: #5 Speechmaker 5-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Brabbham 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #7 All That 4-1 WON ($10.60)
5th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Flowing Mane 3-1 3rd
Best Value: #5 Mr. Starr's Report 15-1 WON ($20.80)
Next Best: #10 Saved the Best 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Summer Sands 6-1 4th
6th: CLM ($100k), 3yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Much Stronger 3-1 WON ($3.40)
Best Value: #8 Jumpinofftheedge 20-1 6th
Next Best: #4 Perilous Indian 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Ration 8-1 4th
$25 P4 Play:
3: 3
4: 1-4-5-7-8
5: 3-5-6-7-10
6: 5
1x5x5x1 = $25
7th: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Flying K C 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #8 Hot Squeeze 10-1 WON ($14.40)
Next Best: #7 Hangingwithsonny 6-1 7th
Exotics Use: #5 May Shares 4-1 2nd
8th: 34th West Point-NY, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Really good edition of this..
Most Likely: #2 Lubash 5-2 4th
Best Value: #1 Mr. Vegas 10-1 7th
Next Best: #10 Kharafa 3-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Hangover Kid 6-1 WON ($13.80)
9th: OC/C, 3+, 9.5f-T (P3, DD)
Stakes quality field and plenty tough to decipher..
Most Likely: #3 Slumber 4-1 WON ($6.00)
Next Best: #5 Teaks North 2-1 6th
Exotics Use: #4 Sky Blazer 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #1 Reflecting 6-1 3rd
10th: OC/N2X, 3+, 1m-IT (DD)
Most Likely: #6 LATE SCR
Best Value: #9 Beer Garden 6-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Monument Hill 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Tiz Gianni 10-1 9th
11th: MCLM/$25k, 3+, 5.5f-T
Most Likely: #8 Show Some Lovin 7-2 WON ($8.30)
Next Best: #1 Freight 4-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Southern Safari 12-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #10 Hoboken Joe 3-1 5th
<$50 P4 Play:
8: 1-2-8-10
9: 3-4-5
10: 6-9
11: 1-8-9-10
4x3x2x4 = 96 x .50 = $48
Good luck!
Steve