Kasept
08-14-2013, 04:35 AM
Fair amount of rain in the area Tuesday doffs the non-stake grass races Wednesday, but the precip was needed for the courses as we move into the final 3 weeks of the meet. Ended Week 4 Monday missing a huge opportunity in the early P4 ($1,740), where Chad Brown anchor leg firster Due Diligence virtually assured that the sequence only required negotiation of the P3 that came before. Sensing that the opener was a mess, the all button worked well snaring 8-1 Elusive Act. But 25 minutes later, itwas a moot point. Short fields have been a curiously difficult hurdle for me this meet and while willing to try and beat Magical Moon, I couldn't see Jewel of a Cat getting past her, Lignite or first turf Little Sandy. This was the second bonus quad of the meet that I'm especially disappointed I missed having gone in feeling like the sequence had particular potential. It's usually essential to snare 3-4 of these a season to help guarantee a profit and after a nice opening quarter of the meet, I've been leaking money back over the past fortnight. Let's dig in the heels and attack Week 5 and the weekly Del Mar Wednesday carryover!
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Nothing clever to offer with the faves looking better than the prices. Rosie's Song may be free-wheeling up front..
Most Likely: #4 Rosie's Song 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Prize Taker 4-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Soul Opposition 3-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Isn'tshewonderful 7-2 5th
2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #10 Howaboutwe WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #3 Hard Rumor 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Carolinian 2nd
3rd: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)
Best Value: #4 Velocci 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Mr. Style 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Navajo Ca Lo 5-1 3rd
4th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)
As highlighted by Andy Serling Tuesday on ATR, KMc's Shadwell returnee Asiya may be pretty good and gets 1st Lasix too (30%; $3.53)..
Most Likely: #5 Asiya 9-5 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #3 Here's Zealicious 4-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Momentary Magic 7-2 5th
5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Cynical Storm 2-1: Here since June and drilling well.. WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #3 Mallory Street 6-1: Shopped spots, lands here; Sharp for bow.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Delightful Liz 4-1: T. Dutrow Limehouse prepping nicely at Fair Hill.. 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Trautman 5-2 4th
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 3-8-10
3: 4-5-6
4: 5 (1-3)
5: 2-3-4
Main: 3x3x1x3 = $27 $1 P4 (2/4/5/7/9/10-2/5/7/8-5-2) Paid $51.00
Backup: 3x3x2x3 = 54 x .50 = $27
6th: Stroll, 3yo, 9f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)
Really nice assembly of cut below graded stakes 3yo turfers and seemingly wide open. I'll Call, already one that looked to be forwardly placed, adds blinkers. Don't see a whole lot of other speed here, so whomever gets aggressive could get rewarded. Don't be shy about watch the board and shopping for prices here. There has to be one in here that gets lost on the board..
Most Likely: #5 Winning Cause SCR
Next Best: #8 I'll Call 6-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Readyshakego 30-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Java's War SCR
7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)
Best Value: #6 Swakopmund 3rd
Next Best: #7 Holiday's Jewel 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Currency Union WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #5 Starship Gambler
8th: Troy, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Best Value: #8 Hogy 9-2 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #4 Great Mills 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Strong Impact 7-2 3rd
9th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 9f (DD)
Good set up here for mid-pack/closer types..
Best Value: #3 Warrior Up 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Horned Frog 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Nevada 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Thunder Quay 7-2 3rd
10th: MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF
Most Likely: #10 My Perfect Valentine 3rd
Next Best: #15 High Inflation 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Your Lion Eyes 5th
Super Add: #8 Brickhouse Baby WON ($13.20)
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 6-7-11
8: 4-8
9: 2-3-4-6
10: 7-8-10-15
3x2x4x4 = 96 x ,.50 = $48
DEL MAR
PRE-SCRATCHES
3rd: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)
$255k C/O starts here..
Belvoir firster Spritzy may not have to be much too best these. Gets Bejarano too..
Best Value: #6 Spritzy 5-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Calameera 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Secret Memo 7-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Scary Fast 5-2 3rd
4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Bonita Star 4-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Bas 8-1 WON ($20.60)
Next Best: #1 Pawn Shop 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Katy's Kitty 5-1 6th
5th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)
Pretty respectable set of older maiden state breds. Pace appears likely to get hot. Add 2 & 7 to deep plays..
Most Likely: #4 Tiz a Kiss 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #3 Hot and Pleasing 10-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Sidepocket Run 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Coconut Cream Pie 7-2 8th
6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)
#8 Unbridled Giant 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #6 Frenemy 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Somewhere With You 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 In a Wine Tizzy 6-1 4th
7th: Green Flash H., 3+, 5f-T (DD)
Most Likely: #4 Distinctiv Passion 5-2 3rd-DQ'd from Win
Best Value: #3 Circa'sgoldengear 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Sirocco Strike 4-1 WON ($16.40)-Elevated from 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Strong Wind 6-1 2nd-Elevated from 3rd
8th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #8 Dolphin Shorts 5-1 WON ($15.20)
Best Value: #4 Reclusive 15-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Janes Ship 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Party Bus 7-2 3rd
<$150 P6 Play:
3: 5-6-8-10
4: 1-6-8
5: 4
6: 6-8
7: 4
8: 3-4-8
4x3x1x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144 $2 Pick 6 (5/8/4/8/1/8) Paid $581.40 (5OF6)
<$75 P4 Play:
5: 2-3-4-6-7-9
6: 6-8
7: 1-3-4-5
8: 3-4-8
6x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 4 (4/8/1/8) Paid $351.85
Good luck!
Steve
SARATOGA
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD)
Nothing clever to offer with the faves looking better than the prices. Rosie's Song may be free-wheeling up front..
Most Likely: #4 Rosie's Song 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #5 Prize Taker 4-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Soul Opposition 3-1 WON ($10.80)
Exotics Use: #6 Isn'tshewonderful 7-2 5th
2nd: NY-MSW, 2yo, 5.5f-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #10 Howaboutwe WON ($5.40)
Next Best: #3 Hard Rumor 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Carolinian 2nd
3rd: MCLM/$20k, 3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)
Best Value: #4 Velocci 6-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Mr. Style 8-5 WON ($4.00)
Exotics Use: #6 Navajo Ca Lo 5-1 3rd
4th: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P3, DD)
As highlighted by Andy Serling Tuesday on ATR, KMc's Shadwell returnee Asiya may be pretty good and gets 1st Lasix too (30%; $3.53)..
Most Likely: #5 Asiya 9-5 WON ($4.50)
Best Value: #3 Here's Zealicious 4-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Momentary Magic 7-2 5th
5th: MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #2 Cynical Storm 2-1: Here since June and drilling well.. WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #3 Mallory Street 6-1: Shopped spots, lands here; Sharp for bow.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Delightful Liz 4-1: T. Dutrow Limehouse prepping nicely at Fair Hill.. 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Trautman 5-2 4th
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 3-8-10
3: 4-5-6
4: 5 (1-3)
5: 2-3-4
Main: 3x3x1x3 = $27 $1 P4 (2/4/5/7/9/10-2/5/7/8-5-2) Paid $51.00
Backup: 3x3x2x3 = 54 x .50 = $27
6th: Stroll, 3yo, 9f-IT (G/S, P3, DD)
Really nice assembly of cut below graded stakes 3yo turfers and seemingly wide open. I'll Call, already one that looked to be forwardly placed, adds blinkers. Don't see a whole lot of other speed here, so whomever gets aggressive could get rewarded. Don't be shy about watch the board and shopping for prices here. There has to be one in here that gets lost on the board..
Most Likely: #5 Winning Cause SCR
Next Best: #8 I'll Call 6-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Readyshakego 30-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Java's War SCR
7th: OC/S-ALW, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF (P4, P3, DD)
Best Value: #6 Swakopmund 3rd
Next Best: #7 Holiday's Jewel 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Currency Union WON ($8.00)
Super Add: #5 Starship Gambler
8th: Troy, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Best Value: #8 Hogy 9-2 WON ($6.40)
Next Best: #4 Great Mills 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Strong Impact 7-2 3rd
9th: OC/S-ALW, 3+, 9f (DD)
Good set up here for mid-pack/closer types..
Best Value: #3 Warrior Up 6-1 8th
Next Best: #4 Horned Frog 5-2 4th
Exotics Use: #2 Nevada 3-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 Thunder Quay 7-2 3rd
10th: MCLM/$25k, F&M-3+, 1m-OFF THE TURF
Most Likely: #10 My Perfect Valentine 3rd
Next Best: #15 High Inflation 2nd
Exotics Use: #7 Your Lion Eyes 5th
Super Add: #8 Brickhouse Baby WON ($13.20)
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 6-7-11
8: 4-8
9: 2-3-4-6
10: 7-8-10-15
3x2x4x4 = 96 x ,.50 = $48
DEL MAR
PRE-SCRATCHES
3rd: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)
$255k C/O starts here..
Belvoir firster Spritzy may not have to be much too best these. Gets Bejarano too..
Best Value: #6 Spritzy 5-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Calameera 3-1 WON ($7.40)
Exotics Use: #8 Secret Memo 7-2 4th
Super Add: #10 Scary Fast 5-2 3rd
4th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #6 Bonita Star 4-1 5th
Best Value: #8 Bas 8-1 WON ($20.60)
Next Best: #1 Pawn Shop 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Katy's Kitty 5-1 6th
5th: Cal-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m (P4, P3, DD)
Pretty respectable set of older maiden state breds. Pace appears likely to get hot. Add 2 & 7 to deep plays..
Most Likely: #4 Tiz a Kiss 5-2 WON ($7.20)
Best Value: #3 Hot and Pleasing 10-1 5th
Next Best: #9 Sidepocket Run 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Coconut Cream Pie 7-2 8th
6th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 1m (P3, DD)
#8 Unbridled Giant 5-2 WON ($6.20)
Next Best: #6 Frenemy 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #3 Somewhere With You 10-1 9th
Exotics Use: #1 In a Wine Tizzy 6-1 4th
7th: Green Flash H., 3+, 5f-T (DD)
Most Likely: #4 Distinctiv Passion 5-2 3rd-DQ'd from Win
Best Value: #3 Circa'sgoldengear 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Sirocco Strike 4-1 WON ($16.40)-Elevated from 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Strong Wind 6-1 2nd-Elevated from 3rd
8th: MCLM/$20k, F&M-3+, 6.5f (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #8 Dolphin Shorts 5-1 WON ($15.20)
Best Value: #4 Reclusive 15-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Janes Ship 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #10 Party Bus 7-2 3rd
<$150 P6 Play:
3: 5-6-8-10
4: 1-6-8
5: 4
6: 6-8
7: 4
8: 3-4-8
4x3x1x2x1x3 = 72 x $2 = $144 $2 Pick 6 (5/8/4/8/1/8) Paid $581.40 (5OF6)
<$75 P4 Play:
5: 2-3-4-6-7-9
6: 6-8
7: 1-3-4-5
8: 3-4-8
6x2x4x3 = 144 x .50 = $72 $0.50 Pick 4 (4/8/1/8) Paid $351.85
Good luck!
Steve