Horses to follow next time out for 2013

[Calzone Lord]

* Brians Fancy ( http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?track_id=FG&raceDate=20130121&raceNumber=07&day_evening=D&country=USA )

Brians Fancy, normally a forwardly placed horse and one without any prior history of gate problems, as you can see in the link above, he propped at the start of the 7th race at FG on Jan 21st.

We've seen much adieu about horses blowing the break by several lengths and winning ... however, that normally happens in meltdown races (+20's or more) where blowing the break can actually be an advantage.

This race was a -13 and Brians Fancy had no chance and was caught wide the entire way around the turn to boot.


* Iron Joe T ( http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?track_id=GG&raceDate=20130120&raceNumber=09&day_evening=D&country=USA and http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?track_id=GG&raceDate=20130207&raceNumber=07&day_evening=D&country=USA )

Was involved in a breakaway pace war on Jan 20th at Golden Gate. That race was an unbelievable +46, so he was a great 6th that day.

In one of the more extreme cases of over-compensation you'll ever see, he was taken extremely wide and wrangled back to dead last in a MUCH slower paced route race next time out. He rallied to be in a photo for 2nd at 7.9/1 odds, he would have won with any kind of rational trip that day.

[Calzone Lord]

A few layoff horses I've been waiting on before getting into this years work...

* Prophet's Song: Ran a sneaky awesome race last time out -- was in a vicious head-to-head speed duel through very fast fractions in a race that was a +29. Dueled with a horse who ultimately finished last beaten 20 lengths at 6/1 odds. Was outside in that duel and about 3 wide on the turn as well.

Especially dangerous on the cut-back in distance. She will destroy any speed horse that dares go with her early.


* Skattle Seattle - was last seen getting assassinated in a breakaway duel in a race that was a +46. Big look next time out, either on the cutback or in a spot where no one will test him for the early lead.


* Dawn's Charm: Rocketship maiden win! Last time out she helped meltdown the Beholder race. MUST cut-back! This will be a disaster if they continue to try and stretch her out, she's just way too fast.


* Oil Rig: Got a very bizarre ride last time out. Broke slow and was absolutely gunned to the outside of a total run-off horse to engage in a wicked duel. This one eventually stopped and finished dead last. Will improve a lot with a more rational ride. The race was good for the class level and as long as he stays with Kobiskie.


* Niederzel: Got absolutely no pace help at all and won with one of those wide power moves that Zenyatta would pull off against junk in these type of race shapes.

Very impressive win at 4/1 odds to make a wide power move into the teeth of very slow fractions.


* Mykukubird - Sneaky huge performance last time out. Won a head-to-head breakaway speed duel with a 7/2 shot eventual 11th place finisher in a brutally fast paced race. Was still going very well after 5.5 furlongs and hit a wall in deep stretch. Huge look on the cutback, especially if it is a race with less pace. Was hard urged early so may not need a real big cutback.

* Hope Restored - Ran a sneaky excellent race when best of a WILD 3-way breakaway dueling group that had more than 10 lengths on the horse who was racing in 4th early. Huge look on the cut-back.


* Mentor Cane - Completely ludicrous move stretching him out last time out. Ran off with his mouth open and posted crazy fractions. Must obviously cutback to sprints.

[geeker2]

Horse name Which Market
Notes troubled trip
Activity type Entry
Activity date 02-23-2013
Track Gulfstream Park
Surface Turf
Distance 1 Mile
Race number 8
Purse $57,500
Claim price $62,500
Individual claim price Not Entered for Tag
Race type Allowance Optional Claiming
Post position 5
Jockey Velazquez J R
Race entry http://www.drf.com/race-entries/GP/USA/2013-02-23/D/8


LORD - I would be interested in your view of this horses last effort. I thought he had all sorts of trouble.

[Calzone Lord]

LORD - I would be interested in your view of this horses last effort. I thought he had all sorts of trouble.

Are you talking about the Jan 12th race?

He was a little wide, but had a pretty clear trip.

He can certainly win that race Saturday, he's got the numbers, but I don't see much trouble last time.

[geeker2]

Are you talking about the Jan 12th race?

He was a little wide, but had a pretty clear trip.

He can certainly win that race Saturday, he's got the numbers, but I don't see much trouble last time.

Yes that race and thanks for your view of it. I kind of thought he got blocked in mid stretch.

[pweizer]

* Brians Fancy ( http://www1.drf.com/displayVideo.do?track_id=FG&raceDate=20130121&raceNumber=07&day_evening=D&country=USA )

Brians Fancy, normally a forwardly placed horse and one without any prior history of gate problems, as you can see in the link above, he propped at the start of the 7th race at FG on Jan 21st.

We've seen much adieu about horses blowing the break by several lengths and winning ... however, that normally happens in meltdown races (+20's or more) where blowing the break can actually be an advantage.

This race was a -13 and Brians Fancy had no chance and was caught wide the entire way around the turn to boot.




Brian's Fancy came back to run tonight at Delta Downs. He opened up 9-5 off of a 10-1 morning line. He went off at 5-1, was forwardly placed, but never made the lead and came up empty to finish 4th.

The race was won by the favorite but it was a strung out field.

Paul

[pweizer]

Let me offer a horse from my watch list entered today at Aqueduct.

Tancredi (# 5, 5/2) is entered Aqueduct on Friday, February 22nd, 2013 in Race 7.

YOUR NOTES: was behind the wire to wire winner on a speed favoring scenario last out and behind another wire to wire winner two back as well. Encountered significant trouble in last.

Doug--thoughts on this one?

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

I certainly don't disagree with anything you said. He's in a very paceless spot today.

Might even find himself on the early lead.

[tabs]

3 minutes to post and Tancredi is 8/5 - bit of an underlay I think :)

Maybe too much money reading these posts!

I'll play the "Money Only" at 3-1

gl

[Calzone Lord]

Let me offer a horse from my watch list entered today at Aqueduct.

Tancredi (# 5, 5/2) is entered Aqueduct on Friday, February 22nd, 2013 in Race 7.

YOUR NOTES: was behind the wire to wire winner on a speed favoring scenario last out and behind another wire to wire winner two back as well. Encountered significant trouble in last.

Doug--thoughts on this one?

Paul


Nice Job Paul.

The 7/2 looks good on Iron Joe T here at Santa Anita.

There's no pace at all in this race, either. If the connections are smart, they let him go to the lead.

[Calzone Lord]

Fu_ck Yeah, Iron Joe T. got up for the win at 4/1!

I told Jeff Bonde on Twitter the other day to send him to the lead!

[pweizer]

Fu_ck Yeah, Iron Joe T. got up for the win at 4/1!

I told Jeff Bonde on Twitter the other day to send him to the lead!

Excellent call. He had a good race dynamic following four speed horses but was wide throughout and at least five wide on the far turn. And a great price to boot.

Paul

[Vegaskid]

Great call on Iron Joe T (Calzone Lord) and Tancredi (pweizer)!!!

:$::D:$:

[NTamm1215]

* Dawn's Charm: Rocketship maiden win! Last time out she helped meltdown the Beholder race. MUST cut-back! This will be a disaster if they continue to try and stretch her out, she's just way too fast.


You're absolutely right. Unfortunately, she's going in the Las Virgenes next week against Beholder.

[letswastemoney]

Mykukubird is entered on Friday at Hawthorne, but there is some other speed in the race.

Still a good play?

[Calzone Lord]

Mykukubird is entered on Friday at Hawthorne, but there is some other speed in the race.

Still a good play?

The 4 month layoff is a concern ... and I'd like her a lot better if she can avoid a speed duel with Annie's Showtime ... but yeah, 20/1 morning line odds look very generous.

[pweizer]

The 4 month layoff is a concern ... and I'd like her a lot better if she can avoid a speed duel with Annie's Showtime ... but yeah, 20/1 morning line odds look very generous.

Pounded late to 6/5 but got no pressure and cruised to a six length win.

Another Doug Special. Well played.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Pounded late to 6/5 but got no pressure and cruised to a six length win.

Another Doug Special. Well played.

Paul

Thanks. Scratched from the Friday race into an easier spot today.

[Calzone Lord]

So far, 4 of them have run back and 2 of them have won their next start.

Obviously, I can fully understand why someone gave this thread just a 2-star rating.

The first winner only paid $10 and todays winner was just 6/5 even though he win by a huge margin.

Niederzel goes tomorrow at Keeneland to try and make it 3-for-5 next out.

[pweizer]

So far, 4 of them have run back and 2 of them have won their next start.

Obviously, I can fully understand why someone gave this thread just a 2-star rating.

The first winner only paid $10 and todays winner was just 6/5 even though he win by a huge margin.

Niederzel goes tomorrow at Keeneland to try and make it 3-for-5 next out.

He was 3-1 with zero minutes to post so someone pounded him late.

Did you also notice in the Blue Grass that the 1 went from 15-1 to 9-1 in the last flash?

You bring some steam my friend...

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

He was 3-1 with zero minutes to post so someone pounded him late.

Did you also notice in the Blue Grass that the 1 went from 15-1 to 9-1 in the last flash?

You bring some steam my friend...

Paul


I doubt it was me.

LOL -- if someone bet the rail horse in the Blue Grass down from 15/1 to 9/1 in the final minute all because of me -- I think they want to do more to me than just 2-star some of my threads.

[letswastemoney]

I couldn't bet her at odds that low. But many days when I read your posts, I keep wondering why a place like DRF hasn't hired you yet. I seem to learn more from them than most of what I read on here.

[pweizer]

I couldn't bet her at odds that low. But many days when I read your posts, I keep wondering why a place like DRF hasn't hired you yet. I seem to learn more from them than most of what I read on here.

Totally agree. This was a great thread.

Paul

[3kings]

I couldn't bet her at odds that low. But many days when I read your posts, I keep wondering why a place like DRF hasn't hired you yet. I seem to learn more from them than most of what I read on here.

Well said. This is a great thread. Why would someone take the time and effort to rate a thread poorly. Just someone with a petty jealousy of Doug.

[pweizer]

Another unbelievable performance today Doug with Neiderzel at 4-1. Much the best.

Tremendous work once again. Nobody does it better.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Another unbelievable performance today Doug with Neiderzel at 4-1. Much the best.

Tremendous work once again. Nobody does it better.

Paul

Thanks Paul.

I am glad I have a loyal fan or two. This one was only bet down from 5/1 to 4/1 at the last minute.

[letswastemoney]

Thanks for Skattle Seattle! 7/1!

[cassie]

also thanks for skittle seatle 1st at golden gate wire to wire

[Calzone Lord]

Thanks guys. Skattle Seattle paid $17.20 to win.

The horses in this thread are now 4-for-6 next time out, for a decent 66.67% win percentage. Three of the four have paid double digit win mutuals.

Obviously, I'm still beyond befuddled why anyone would 1-star this thread, but oh well.

[pweizer]

Excellent work again. I was at Keeneland today and didn't pay attention to any other track so I missed this one.

Posting winner after winner without seeing the field or conditions the horses run back in is amazing.

Paul

[pweizer]

Hope Restored in at Mountaineer tonight in the nightcap.


Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Hope Restored looked home free in deep stretch.

Ended up getting nailed in the final jumps by a deep closer.

Finished 2nd beaten a neck at 9/2. Three lengths clear of the eventual 3rd place finisher.

[pweizer]

That was a very tough beat. He dispatched the rest of the speed with ease. Another excellent call.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

Could be a while for the few remaining ones to run back ... they aren't even working and haven't worked in months.

I am ecstatic to finally be finished with almost all of my 2yo sales work.

After that, I'll be able to get back to work on this and have several hundred bet backs by the end of May. I will post one or two from each region again.

[pweizer]

Awesome. I look forward to it.

Paul

[Calzone Lord]

* Mentor Cane - Completely ludicrous move stretching him out last time out. Ran off with his mouth open and posted crazy fractions. Must obviously cutback to sprints.

Mentor Cane returned off a 7-month layoff at Belmont Park, and crushed a maiden field at 2/1 odds. 97 Beyer.

So far, 8 horses in this 'Horses to Follow Next Time Out' thread have run back ... 5 of them won their next start, and another lost a photo at 9/2 odds.

8-5-1-0 (63% wins) and three of the five winners paid double digit win mutuels.

Of the 10 horses named, only Dawn's Charm and Oil Rig have not run back.

[TheSpyder]

Which proves you need to quit fooling around and come up with more of these gems. I've caught two of them!

Thanks!

Spyder from SC