Kasept
08-08-2012, 04:52 AM
SARATOGA RACE COURSE
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Physical Delivery 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Kitty Panda 6-1 WON ($7.70)
Next Best: #2 Spinit to Winit 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Aunt Tipsy 8-1 6th
2nd: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Jess Not Jesse 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best #1 Bay Park Boy 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Silent Pipe 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Saints Alive 6-1 3rd
3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)
Funky set..
Best Value: #3 Spicy Devine 6-1 5th
Next Best: #1 My Emma 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Open Mic 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Mizz's Midas Touch 4-1 8th
4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Momentum Investor 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Side Party Ralph 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Big Red Talent 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Rock N Glamour 12-1 7th
5th: 10th NYSS-Cab Calloway, 3yo-R, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)
King Kreesa is better than these but will have company on the front end. Vulnerable only if pressed in waves by foes..
Most Likely: #3 King Kreesa 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Goodtime Boy 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Western Tryst 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Sleepy Freud 10-1 3rd
<$72 P4 Play:
2: 1-3-8
3: 1-2-3-4-5-8-9-10
4: 2-4-8
5: 3
3x8x3x1 = $72� ($36 for .50)
6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, DD)
Deep group and luckily not in a P4. Gets especially compelling if you have doubts about Union Victory's invincibility as Andy Serling suggested on ATR Tuesday. Note that this is not a straight N2L..
Most Likely: #8 Union Victory 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Malibu Holiday 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Royal Start 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Wedding in Sorano 15-1 6th
7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Other than Runnin Bayou, this field is literally within 3 lengths of each other based on recent form. Tough start to P4 that will come down to trip. Post Pattern is the marginal horse-to-beat, but I'll work off prices like 6-1 Why Not Whisky (2nd as a 3yo after 8 mo. break) and Call Up the Chief (15-1) who continues to improve since becoming a turfer and being introduced to Irad Ortiz. Don't lose track of #11 (AE) Nelson Avenue (15-1) should he draw in DOES DRAW IN. As plausible as the rest at fat number..
Most Likely: #4 Why Not Whisky 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Call Up the Chief 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Post Pattern 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Mr Cowboy 4-1 4th
Super Add: #11 Nelson Ave. 15-1 3rd
8th: Mandy's Gold, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)
Return of 2yo Champion My Miss Aurelia and indications are that she'll pick up where she left off. At the same time, at 2-5, this is not a case of tomato cans she's facing with Well Kept, Srumdiddlyumptious, Delightful Quality and Ullapool all solid missies and nearly the whole cast interested in being on or near the lead. Appreciate that Asmussen got a full 6f spin into My Miss Aurelia as final tune up..
Most Likely: #6 My Miss Aurelia 2-5 WON ($2.50)
Best Value: #1 Well Kept 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Delightful Quality 6-1 2nd
By the way... If George and Lori Hall never win another race, it's because they named a horse Srumdiddlyumptious..
9th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (DD)
Unfortunately have to SCR #5 Toy Cannon from this spot due to a splint that popped up and will sideline him 7-10 days..
Most Likely: #2 In My Eyes 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 John Joe 12-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #6 Hysterical Cat 9-2 5th
10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T
Most Likely: #4 Santonio d'Oro 3-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Griffin Rock 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Master of Markets 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Star Walk 20-1 10th
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 1-3-4-5-6-11
8: 6
9: 2-4-6-10
10: 1-3-4-8-9-11
6x1x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
DEL MAR
POST-SCRATCHES
3rd (6:00pm ET): CLM, 4+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)
$257k P6 C/O starts here..
As discussed with him on ATR Tuesday, the opener of the Carryover sequence goes through Ron Ellis (Smokey Lonesome; Megastar) with Ted West (Atticus Jack) lurking..
Most Likely: #2 Smokey Lonesome 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #5 Megastar 9-2 6th
Next Best: #9 Atticus Jack 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #Mr. Candy Bar 8-1 8th
4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 War Excess 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Suances Vixen 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #7 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Bull Rush 8-1 6th
5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Would love to single Queen Mercury or narrow to her and Bila Shaka but Brooklyn Rose broke maiden on this quirky strip and did it off a break at that. Arrgh..
Most Likely: #7 Queen Mercury 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Bila Shaka 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Brooklyn Rose 8-1 WON ($12.80)
Super Add: #13 Warren's Performer 5-1 5th
6th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
With Risky Reward out, it appears Unusual Jazz is going to get in and he may be highly reliable back in with Cal-breds..
Most Likely: #12 UNUSUAL JAZZ 4-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Excessive Assault 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Swift Eagle 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Dugan Bill 4-1 10th
7th: 44th Sorrento (G3), 2yo-F, 6.5f (DD)
Obviously Executiveprivilege is the key to many sextet tries..
Most Likely: #7 Executiveprivilege 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #2 Renee's Titan 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Speedinthruthecity 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Switch to the Lead 6-1 3rd
8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #2 Dance Team 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Renee's Queen 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Jerry'shoneycarol 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Wishing Gate 6-1 WON ($12.60)
<$150 P6 Play:
3: 2-5-9
4: 1-3-7
5: 7-9
6: 12
7: 7
8: 2-3-5-12
3x3x2x1x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144
<$75 P4 Play:
5: 7-8-9
6: 7-8-12
7: 7
8: 2-3-5-12
3x3x1x4 = 36 x $2 = $72 ($36 for $1; $18 for .50)
$2 Pick 4 (8/2,5,8,13,14/3,7/12) Paid $563.40
Good luck!
Steve
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 5f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Physical Delivery 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #6 Kitty Panda 6-1 WON ($7.70)
Next Best: #2 Spinit to Winit 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Aunt Tipsy 8-1 6th
2nd: CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P4, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 Jess Not Jesse 5-2 WON ($4.80)
Next Best #1 Bay Park Boy 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Silent Pipe 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #6 Saints Alive 6-1 3rd
3rd: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 5.5f (P3, DD)
Funky set..
Best Value: #3 Spicy Devine 6-1 5th
Next Best: #1 My Emma 5-2 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #8 Open Mic 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Mizz's Midas Touch 4-1 8th
4th: MDN CLM, 3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Momentum Investor 9-5 2nd
Best Value: #2 Side Party Ralph 8-1 5th
Next Best: #4 Big Red Talent 6-1 6th
Exotics Use: #9 Rock N Glamour 12-1 7th
5th: 10th NYSS-Cab Calloway, 3yo-R, 1m-IT (P6, P3, DD)
King Kreesa is better than these but will have company on the front end. Vulnerable only if pressed in waves by foes..
Most Likely: #3 King Kreesa 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #5 Goodtime Boy 6-1 6th
Next Best: #7 Western Tryst 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Sleepy Freud 10-1 3rd
<$72 P4 Play:
2: 1-3-8
3: 1-2-3-4-5-8-9-10
4: 2-4-8
5: 3
3x8x3x1 = $72� ($36 for .50)
6th: CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (G/S, DD)
Deep group and luckily not in a P4. Gets especially compelling if you have doubts about Union Victory's invincibility as Andy Serling suggested on ATR Tuesday. Note that this is not a straight N2L..
Most Likely: #8 Union Victory 5-2 WON ($4.00)
Best Value: #2 Malibu Holiday 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Royal Start 7-2 4th
Super Add: #1 Wedding in Sorano 15-1 6th
7th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD)
Other than Runnin Bayou, this field is literally within 3 lengths of each other based on recent form. Tough start to P4 that will come down to trip. Post Pattern is the marginal horse-to-beat, but I'll work off prices like 6-1 Why Not Whisky (2nd as a 3yo after 8 mo. break) and Call Up the Chief (15-1) who continues to improve since becoming a turfer and being introduced to Irad Ortiz. Don't lose track of #11 (AE) Nelson Avenue (15-1) should he draw in DOES DRAW IN. As plausible as the rest at fat number..
Most Likely: #4 Why Not Whisky 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #3 Call Up the Chief 15-1 6th
Next Best: #5 Post Pattern 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Mr Cowboy 4-1 4th
Super Add: #11 Nelson Ave. 15-1 3rd
8th: Mandy's Gold, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD)
Return of 2yo Champion My Miss Aurelia and indications are that she'll pick up where she left off. At the same time, at 2-5, this is not a case of tomato cans she's facing with Well Kept, Srumdiddlyumptious, Delightful Quality and Ullapool all solid missies and nearly the whole cast interested in being on or near the lead. Appreciate that Asmussen got a full 6f spin into My Miss Aurelia as final tune up..
Most Likely: #6 My Miss Aurelia 2-5 WON ($2.50)
Best Value: #1 Well Kept 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #3 Delightful Quality 6-1 2nd
By the way... If George and Lori Hall never win another race, it's because they named a horse Srumdiddlyumptious..
9th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (DD)
Unfortunately have to SCR #5 Toy Cannon from this spot due to a splint that popped up and will sideline him 7-10 days..
Most Likely: #2 In My Eyes 6-1 3rd
Best Value: #4 John Joe 12-1 6th
Next Best: #10 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #6 Hysterical Cat 9-2 5th
10th: MDN CLM, 3+, 8.5f-T
Most Likely: #4 Santonio d'Oro 3-1 4th
Best Value: #9 Griffin Rock 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Master of Markets 4-1 7th
Exotics Use: #1 Star Walk 20-1 10th
<$75 P4 Play:
7: 1-3-4-5-6-11
8: 6
9: 2-4-6-10
10: 1-3-4-8-9-11
6x1x4x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
DEL MAR
POST-SCRATCHES
3rd (6:00pm ET): CLM, 4+, 8.5f-T (P6, P3, DD)
$257k P6 C/O starts here..
As discussed with him on ATR Tuesday, the opener of the Carryover sequence goes through Ron Ellis (Smokey Lonesome; Megastar) with Ted West (Atticus Jack) lurking..
Most Likely: #2 Smokey Lonesome 5-2 WON ($6.40)
Best Value: #5 Megastar 9-2 6th
Next Best: #9 Atticus Jack 7-2 7th
Exotics Use: #Mr. Candy Bar 8-1 8th
4th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #3 War Excess 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #1 Suances Vixen 5-1 WON ($11.00)
Next Best: #7 Late SCR
Exotics Use: #4 Bull Rush 8-1 6th
5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Would love to single Queen Mercury or narrow to her and Bila Shaka but Brooklyn Rose broke maiden on this quirky strip and did it off a break at that. Arrgh..
Most Likely: #7 Queen Mercury 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #9 Bila Shaka 7-2 3rd
Exotics Use: #8 Brooklyn Rose 8-1 WON ($12.80)
Super Add: #13 Warren's Performer 5-1 5th
6th: Cal-OC/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
With Risky Reward out, it appears Unusual Jazz is going to get in and he may be highly reliable back in with Cal-breds..
Most Likely: #12 UNUSUAL JAZZ 4-1 6th
Best Value: #7 Excessive Assault 15-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Swift Eagle 7-2 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #10 Dugan Bill 4-1 10th
7th: 44th Sorrento (G3), 2yo-F, 6.5f (DD)
Obviously Executiveprivilege is the key to many sextet tries..
Most Likely: #7 Executiveprivilege 4-5 WON ($2.80)
Best Value: #2 Renee's Titan 12-1 4th
Next Best: #6 Speedinthruthecity 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #8 Switch to the Lead 6-1 3rd
8th: MSW, 2yo-F, 1m-T (Super Hi-5)
Most Likely: #2 Dance Team 5-2 3rd
Next Best: #3 Renee's Queen 3-1 6th
Best Value: #5 Jerry'shoneycarol 6-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Wishing Gate 6-1 WON ($12.60)
<$150 P6 Play:
3: 2-5-9
4: 1-3-7
5: 7-9
6: 12
7: 7
8: 2-3-5-12
3x3x2x1x1x4 = 72 x $2 = $144
<$75 P4 Play:
5: 7-8-9
6: 7-8-12
7: 7
8: 2-3-5-12
3x3x1x4 = 36 x $2 = $72 ($36 for $1; $18 for .50)
$2 Pick 4 (8/2,5,8,13,14/3,7/12) Paid $563.40
Good luck!
Steve