Kasept
08-04-2012, 05:08 AM
P6 and P4 tries were in vain Friday as part of a humdrum performance overall. $136 triple ($1) in the Honorable Miss kept losses in the modest range. Big weekend of inviting action looms!
SARATOGA RACE COURSE
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Feel obligated to try and beat Stopshoppingmaria. Yes it's an $82k pot, but if she was right, wouldn't there be a stakes opportunity for her somewhere?
Best Value: #5 Powhattan Princess 15-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Stopshoppingmaria 1-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Buleria 12-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Vuitton 5-1 2nd
2nd: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
This is a very treacherous P4 sequence featuring 3 maiden affairs and one of those NYB ALW's I love as price producers. There are some vulnerable favorites in each race, so the potential is high for big returns..
Most Likely: #4 Tritap 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #10 In Speght Ofitall 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 D'Tiger 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Cape Glory 7-2 2nd
3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)
#9 Unlikely Scenario DOES draw in..
Best Value: #5 Horse Feldhaus 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 El Duro 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Unlikely Scenario 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Boss Man Rocket 4-1 8th
4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)
Lots of prices to like. #11 (AE) Gossip Column (7-2) is a danger if drawing in (And DOES get in).. #12 (AE) Toy Cannon will SCR for a 9f-T ALW next Saturday..
Most Likely: #11 Gossip Column 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Tapitdar 8-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Windaful 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Kharafa 8-1 5th
5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #9 Balance the Books 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Fredricksburg 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Winning Cause 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Summer Shiner 12-1 3rd
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 4-5-9-10
3: 5-6-9
4: 2-3-11
5: 1-5-9-10
4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)
Best Value: #1 Lord of Love 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Polizotto 2-1 WON ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Riverdance Rock 7-2 DNF (Saddle slip)
Super Add: #3 Northern Tripp 8-1 8th
7th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Palace Malice 1-1 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #1 Coolusive 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Thane 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Hightail 12-1 3rd
8th: 9th De La Rose, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)
This could be an explosive spot or an event where the ML choices dominate and perform to expectation and since it isn't in a P4 sequence, it's a spot where you should be swinging for the fences. While #1 La Cloche (7-2), #5 Julie's Love (3-1) and #10 Dealbata (5-2) are all worthy of respect and capable in this spot, #4 Dancing to Town (20-1), #7 Dancinginherdreams (12-1), #8 Eye Candy Annie (20-1) and/or #9 Trix in the City (12-1) have potential to turn this great little stake into a meet-maker..
Best Value: #4 Dancing to Town 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Julie's Love 3-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Dancinginherdreams 12-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Late SCR
9th: 10th Prioress (G1), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Have gone round & round on this group and feel like it's a spot to reach out for something different. Unless Agave Kiss is back to her pre-Victory Ride fiasco best, it's an open affair. Jazzy Idea's dirt tries at LRL last year in the MD Juvy and at CT last time were good enough to tinker with here. She's especially intriguing given the potential for this to melt down..
NOTE: The SCR of Jamaican Smoke now leaves Agave Kiss pretty well alone on the lead..
Most Likely: #6 Agave Kiss 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Jazzy Idea 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Tu Endie Wei 6-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Judy the Beauty 5-1 2nd
10th: 85th Whitney H. (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)
To pull a line from Altman's 'The Player' -- one of the best movies ever made about movie-making -- this year's Whitney has "No stars.. just talent". As discussed the last three days on ATR, I can not resist the 20-1 number on Hunters Bay despite Reade Baker's 0 for 7 mark this strip. He has the right style for this and if the pace is average, he should have first run on the closers. Given that Baker (who saddles Tu Endie Wei in the Prioress) has hit the board in 3 of those 7 Spa visits, he may be more appropriate for keys 2nd/3rd, but you're going to getting your run and a price in a group that isn't far apart from each other on paper..
Best Value: #2 Hunters Bay 20-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Ron the Greek 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Fort Larned 7-2 WON ($16.40)
Super Add: #3 Caixa Electronica 15-1 8th
11th:OC/N3L, 3+, 7f (DD)
If Dominus is ready off the lengthy break, he wins. It's actually too bad Dominus is in here because he's hard to bet against and the race would be wildly open without him..
Most Likely: #6 Dominus 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #3 Ya Gotta Have Soul 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Star Harbour 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Bernie the Maestro 5-1 8th
12th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T
Most Likely: #1 Balance the Budget 2-1 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #4 Out of Your Mind 15-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Love Man 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Not Today 3-1 2nd
<$75 P4 Play:
9: 6-7
10: 2-3-5-6-8-9
11: 3-6
12: 1-4-5-6-9-10
2x6x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
Good luck!
Steve
SARATOGA RACE COURSE
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: OC/N1X, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (P3, DD)
Feel obligated to try and beat Stopshoppingmaria. Yes it's an $82k pot, but if she was right, wouldn't there be a stakes opportunity for her somewhere?
Best Value: #5 Powhattan Princess 15-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Stopshoppingmaria 1-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Buleria 12-1 4th
Super Add: #7 Vuitton 5-1 2nd
2nd: MSW, 3+, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
This is a very treacherous P4 sequence featuring 3 maiden affairs and one of those NYB ALW's I love as price producers. There are some vulnerable favorites in each race, so the potential is high for big returns..
Most Likely: #4 Tritap 3-1 WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #10 In Speght Ofitall 6-1 5th
Next Best: #5 D'Tiger 6-1 4th
Exotics Use: #9 Cape Glory 7-2 2nd
3rd: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P3, DD)
#9 Unlikely Scenario DOES draw in..
Best Value: #5 Horse Feldhaus 6-1 6th
Next Best: #6 El Duro 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Unlikely Scenario 6-1 3rd
Super Add: #2 Boss Man Rocket 4-1 8th
4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)
Lots of prices to like. #11 (AE) Gossip Column (7-2) is a danger if drawing in (And DOES get in).. #12 (AE) Toy Cannon will SCR for a 9f-T ALW next Saturday..
Most Likely: #11 Gossip Column 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #2 Tapitdar 8-1 9th
Next Best: #3 Windaful 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Kharafa 8-1 5th
5th: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #9 Balance the Books 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #10 Fredricksburg 8-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Winning Cause 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #1 Summer Shiner 12-1 3rd
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 4-5-9-10
3: 5-6-9
4: 2-3-11
5: 1-5-9-10
4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 1m-IT (P3, DD)
Best Value: #1 Lord of Love 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #6 Polizotto 2-1 WON ($3.90)
Exotics Use: #5 Riverdance Rock 7-2 DNF (Saddle slip)
Super Add: #3 Northern Tripp 8-1 8th
7th: MSW, 2yo, 6.5f (P6, P3, DD)
Most Likely: #8 Palace Malice 1-1 WON ($2.70)
Best Value: #1 Coolusive 8-1 6th
Exotics Use: #6 Thane 4-1 4th
Super Add: #4 Hightail 12-1 3rd
8th: 9th De La Rose, F&M-3+, 1m-IT (G/S, P3, DD)
This could be an explosive spot or an event where the ML choices dominate and perform to expectation and since it isn't in a P4 sequence, it's a spot where you should be swinging for the fences. While #1 La Cloche (7-2), #5 Julie's Love (3-1) and #10 Dealbata (5-2) are all worthy of respect and capable in this spot, #4 Dancing to Town (20-1), #7 Dancinginherdreams (12-1), #8 Eye Candy Annie (20-1) and/or #9 Trix in the City (12-1) have potential to turn this great little stake into a meet-maker..
Best Value: #4 Dancing to Town 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Julie's Love 3-1 WON ($10.20)
Exotics Use: #7 Dancinginherdreams 12-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Late SCR
9th: 10th Prioress (G1), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD)
Have gone round & round on this group and feel like it's a spot to reach out for something different. Unless Agave Kiss is back to her pre-Victory Ride fiasco best, it's an open affair. Jazzy Idea's dirt tries at LRL last year in the MD Juvy and at CT last time were good enough to tinker with here. She's especially intriguing given the potential for this to melt down..
NOTE: The SCR of Jamaican Smoke now leaves Agave Kiss pretty well alone on the lead..
Most Likely: #6 Agave Kiss 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #7 Jazzy Idea 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #4 Tu Endie Wei 6-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Judy the Beauty 5-1 2nd
10th: 85th Whitney H. (G1), 3+, 9f (P3, DD)
To pull a line from Altman's 'The Player' -- one of the best movies ever made about movie-making -- this year's Whitney has "No stars.. just talent". As discussed the last three days on ATR, I can not resist the 20-1 number on Hunters Bay despite Reade Baker's 0 for 7 mark this strip. He has the right style for this and if the pace is average, he should have first run on the closers. Given that Baker (who saddles Tu Endie Wei in the Prioress) has hit the board in 3 of those 7 Spa visits, he may be more appropriate for keys 2nd/3rd, but you're going to getting your run and a price in a group that isn't far apart from each other on paper..
Best Value: #2 Hunters Bay 20-1 7th
Next Best: #6 Ron the Greek 3-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #9 Fort Larned 7-2 WON ($16.40)
Super Add: #3 Caixa Electronica 15-1 8th
11th:OC/N3L, 3+, 7f (DD)
If Dominus is ready off the lengthy break, he wins. It's actually too bad Dominus is in here because he's hard to bet against and the race would be wildly open without him..
Most Likely: #6 Dominus 8-5 WON ($3.70)
Best Value: #3 Ya Gotta Have Soul 15-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Star Harbour 5-1 9th
Exotics Use: #8 Bernie the Maestro 5-1 8th
12th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f-T
Most Likely: #1 Balance the Budget 2-1 WON ($4.90)
Best Value: #4 Out of Your Mind 15-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Love Man 5-1 5th
Exotics Use: #10 Not Today 3-1 2nd
<$75 P4 Play:
9: 6-7
10: 2-3-5-6-8-9
11: 3-6
12: 1-4-5-6-9-10
2x6x2x6 = 144 x .50 = $72
Good luck!
Steve