10/7: Keeneland (Opening Day; 3rd-10th)

[Kasept]

Took a sound beating at Belmont Thursday as poor decisions and jump up winners quashed virtually every attempt. The day's key price ideas -- Roses for the Star, Eternal Ruler and Scootles -- all ran decent races, but invariably fell short or were overhauled to finish 3rd, 3rd and 2nd respectively. P6 carried for another day to reach $103k, but opening card at Keeneland draws my primary attention. As if alluring scenarios at New York and Kentucky weren't enough, Santa Anita carried Thursday as well and has a $42k jackpot to start their sextet. Hope I didn't bury you too badly Thursday, and that we can score some on the challenging Keeneland opening slate to go into the big holiday weekend on the uptick!


KEENELAND


PRE-SCRATCHES


3rd: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Mimi's Special Six 12-1 7th
Next Best: #5 Mutually Benefit 5-2 WON ($4.40)
Exotics Use: #2 Niji's Grand Girl 4-1 3rd
Super Add: #7 Lily Again 4-1 6th


4th: CLM, 3yo-F, 6.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Ratoath Special 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Nina Fever 7-5 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Golden Phoenix 6-1 6th
Super Add: #7 Second Street City 5-2 WON ($8.80)


5th: ALW/N2L, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Very big SCR here with #3 Bet to Win opting out..

Best Value: #2 Ready to Unleash 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Banded 5-1 5th
Next Best: #7 Fan Out 3-1 3rd


6th: MSW, 2yo, 7f (.50 P5, P3, DD, Super)

Nice cast for this including return of Animal Kingdom half bro Thursby and maddening Saratoga disappointment Seve..

Best Value: #4 Golden Ticket 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #5 Optionality 4-1 5th
Exotics Use: #3 Seven Lively Sins 3-1 WON ($6.00)
Super Add: #9 Seve 8-1 4th


7th: ALW/C, 3+, 1m-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Moryba 6-1 WON ($7.60)
Next Best: #8 Yankee Fortune 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Cherokee Artist 6-1 6th
Super Add: #11 Timbucto 30-1 7th


8th: 159th Phoenix (G3), 3+, 6f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Aikenite 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #7 Cool Bullet 10-1 5th
Next Best: #1 Flashpoint 8-5 4th
Super Add: #4 Hoofit 15-1 WON ($25.60)


9th: 60th Alcibiades (G1), 2yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Eye-crossing assembly of baby girls with Biofuel sister Tu Endie Wei coming in as well-heralded filly to beat. Note Bernadini daughter Venetian Sonata is a full sister of emerging Indy Derby winner Wilburn, and Arnold trainee New Wave is a half to General Quarters..

Most Likely: #4 Tu Endie Wei 6-1 7th
Best Value: #7 Stephanie's Kitten 12-1 WON ($21.60)
Next Best: #6 Egg Drop 8-1 10th
Super Add: #1 Puttthebabiesdown 12-1 3rd


10th: ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #2 Pleasant Run 4-1 3rd
Best Value: #12 David D 10-1 9th
Next Best: #7 Sour 7-2 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Why Pretend 20-1 12th
Hi-5 Play: #6 Gutsy Call 5-1 WON ($12.40)


<$75 P5 Play:

6: 4-5
7: 4-8
8: 1-6-7
9: 4-7
10: 1-2-6-7-12

2x2x3x2x5 = 120 x .50 = $60


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 4-8
8: 1-6-7
9: 1-4-6-7
10: 1-2-6-7-12

2x3x4x5 = 120 x .50 = $60


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

KEE SCR/CHG'S (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechangesKEE-USA.html)

[Kasept]

Big SCR of Bet to Win out of the KEE 5th..

[MaTH716]

If Gales is ever going to show up again, today would be the day. Texieria sucking it up in the playoffs and Eddie Kenneally wins the opener and pays $22 bucks......................

[3kings]

If Gales is ever going to show up again, today would be the day. Texieria sucking it up in the playoffs and Eddie Kenneally wins the opener and pays $22 bucks......................

lol
I used the #9 in my P3 and was laughing about Gales when I put the wager in.
Keeneland 1 0.50 P3 (PWHL) 8, 9, 11, 12 / 1, 8, 10 / 1, 2, 5, 7 $24.00

[The Bart]

pk 4

2) 10 11
3) 2 6 7
4) 3 7 8 9
5) all

$72 pre scratches

[Kasept]

Didn't like Bret Calhoun's CHEERLEADER into Alcibiades, but 25-1 crazy price off her fast debut win. Sire Flashy Bull seeks 1st synth hit and has Flassy Lassie in here too.

POST SCRIPT: Came down to 13-1...

[jms62]

Didn't like Bret Calhoun's CHEERLEADER into Alcibiades, but 25-1 crazy price off her fast debut win. Sire Flashy Bull seeks 1st synth hit and has Flassy Lassie in here too.

This may be the hardest race ever to handicap... Boxing 1-4-8-11 in Exacta and just watching... Nice call with Hoofit Steveo

[Kasept]

Nice call with Hoofit Steveo

Thanks, but I didn't use Hoofit in my main P4 play. Did at least snare a decent double out of him with Stephanie's Kitten.

[Kasept]

One thing to take away from the Alcibiades is continuing struggle of Flashy Bull progeny on synthetic. Flashy Lassie and Cheerleader 13th and 14th there as Flashy Bull continues 0-fer as a sire on the rubber...