Lukas Handicapping Angle

[Rupert Pupkin]

Lukas will not turn a horse out no matter what. He will keep injecting them and keep running them even with serious injuries. He will not stop running a horse until it is physically impossible for the horse to run. I don't follow the small tracks but I'm sure there are plenty of guys out there that do the exact same thing with $5,000 claimers. I'm not condonig it even with $5,000 claimers but I'm sure that there are guys that won't turn out a $5,000 claimer because they don't think it's economical. However, I am not aware of any trainer aside from Lukas that treats good horses in this way.
If you look at any normal trainer out there whether it's Pletcher, Baffert, Ellis, Canani, etc. if they have a decent horse and the horse has an injury, they will turn the horse out. In most cases, the horse will come back as good as ever. With all of these trainers, you will see their horses come back from 6 month layoffs, 9 month layofffs, and even 12+ month layoffs and come back as good as ever and have really good campaigns. You will never see this with a Lukas horse. The reason is because he won't turn the horse out until the horse is os badly hurt that the horse will never be the same. That is why you will never see a D Wayne horse come back from a layoff and have a successful campaign. When one of his horses stops running, they usually never run again. If they do make it back, they are usually so far gone that they don't last for more than 1 or 2 races.
So the Lukas handicapping angle is to know that if you ever see a Lukas horse coming back from a layoff, that horse will never be the same horse again. As I said, once in a great while he may get 1 or 2 races out of the horse but that does not happen that often and that is the best case scenario. You know that the horse is not coming back sound. That is definitely good information to have.

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

I agree with you 100% that guy ran GOING WILD last year in all 3 legs of the triple crown and got beat a combine 128 lengths then didn't even give the horse any time off he kept him in NY and ran him in Graded races sprinting what a joke. This guy is not the trainer he used to be and when he gets a good horse he puts them in way over their head.

[seconditis]

I couldn't agree more. I do think however, this guys is the exact same guy he was before. He has been destroying and killing horses his whole life. Nobody noticed before because he still had enought expensive horses bought for him that would win and cover up all the terrible things this man did.

[Danzig]

This guy is not the trainer he used to be and when he gets a good horse he puts them in way over their head.

yeah, like this horse:

Breeders Cup 2005 Winners
Juvenile Fillies - 2YO Fillies - 1 1/16 miles
Folklore/ D Wane Lukas/ E. Prado/ 1:43.85

[Suffolk Shippers]

I agree with you 100% that guy ran GOING WILD last year in all 3 legs of the triple crown and got beat a combine 128 lengths then didn't even give the horse any time off he kept him in NY and ran him in Graded races sprinting what a joke. This guy is not the trainer he used to be and when he gets a good horse he puts them in way over their head.

It's one thing to take your shot in the Kentucky Derby just because it is what is. It's another thing to take a horse and grind him into the ground against vastly superior competition in the rest of the Triple Crown series, when he is clearly over matched. Hell, Giacomo was overmatched come Belmont time. Going Wild was a joke, Lucas is losing his luster very quickly.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Folklore is finished. She will never run again. She didn't even make it to her 3 year old year. What would you rather do, would you arther win the BC Juvenille Filly and and have your horse never race again or would you rather not win that race but have your filly win some major 3 year old and possible 4 year old races. I know how I would answer that question. I would rather have the horse healthy and running rather than winning the one huge 2 year old race and then never running again.

[Danzig]

Folklore is finished. She will never run again. She didn't even make it to her 3 year old year. What would you rather do, would you arther win the BC Juvenille Filly and and have your horse never race again or would you rather not win that race but have your filly win some major 3 year old and possible 4 year old races. I know how I would answer that question. I would rather have the horse healthy and running rather than winning the one huge 2 year old race and then never running again.

she ran once at three, a third place, and then the stress fracture....

he could have bypassed the bc race, she could have still come up with an injury and been retired. she won when she was ready. and now she's worth a hell of a lot more, and her foals will sell for tons more since she was named top 2 yo filly.

remember when zito had five live horses at the end of their two year old season, several of which would have been on a lot of people tickets had they run bc day? and he bypassed the race to 'save' them for the derby. remember how well they all did? he could have had a bcj champ, instead he had no 2 yo champ, and no 3 yo either.

according to lukas, folklore could have come back after a layoff. but they were afraid she would be compromised, not as good. hell, you'd think you'd praise him for not running another into the ground, bringing her back after an injury! the guy can't win!

[Rupert Pupkin]

If I remember correctly, I think there was a lot of suspsicion about Folklore's condition going into that Santa Anita race. I think she only had a few works going in. I don't think she came out of the BC very well.
I don't remeber what her injury was but it was a serious injury. She is a valuable horse and they didn't think she would ever be the same again. There was no way they were going to bring her back.

[seconditis]

THis is classic. We talk about the way Lukas runs young horses into the ground and you come back with FOLKLORE, an amazing horse trained by LUKAS that, you guessed it, career is over after her 2 year old season.

I am still wating for someone to explain why Lukas went from great to SH@% in such a hurry? and why do all of his stats and horses for that matter go way downhill once they turn 4? LUKAS supporters help me out with these 2 questions and I'll jump on board with ya.

[Danzig]

folklore was diagnosed with a stress fracture, one that several vets said she could come back from. rather than chance it, they retired her.

[Pointg5]

Nothing gets Richi going like old Lukey, he must have a voodoo doll that looks like DWL that Richi stick pins in...

[seconditis]

That is fine Danzig. I will lay off FOLKLORE. But where I come from you don't get credit or bonus points for doing the "right thing". You do however get drilled for doing the "wrong thing" over and over for years.

As the great Chris Rock once said "Black people are always trying to take credit for some stupd shi$ like "I take care of my kids!!!!" you are supposed to you dumb mother fuc$%&!, what you want a cookie?"

[Danzig]

second, my biggest gripe is that a trainer has a horse break down and everyone says rip...but lukas has one break down, and he's villified. as if he's the only one to ever have one go down. what about horatio nelson? how many have screamed about an evidently stiff horse going to post, and then breaking down and losing his life? um, NONE. why? because he's trained by obrien, who apparently can do no wrong. why does he get a pass? what does he do differently? well, apparently other trainers get a pass for the simple reason that they AREN'T dwl. lukas has put up numbers unheard of, has been on top of the game for years. trained not one, but two of the top earning distaffers in the history of the sport. countless champs, how many tc winners- including the record for tc wins in a row--six i believe. winners of how many bc races? how many graded stakes? how much purse money? trained how many other top trainers?

you know, i just read something interesting about woody stephens. he's treated as a demi god for his wins, including running conquistador cielo back in the belmont only five days after his met mile score....but do you know that pre-race, everyone begged for him not to run, including CC's owner! ah, but he was right, wasn't he? if dwl tried something like that, he'd be run out of town on a rail. people bitch about going wild...what were the odds on charismatic in the derby? how about giacomo? you know, sometimes longshots win! go figure. dwl ran a longshot horse in the derby. yeah, cause he obviously doesn't know jack about how to win that race, right?
do you know that spain paid over $100 to win in her bc distaff....good thing he didn't listen to the naysayers regarding her and that race!

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

yeah, like this horse:

Breeders Cup 2005 Winners
Juvenile Fillies - 2YO Fillies - 1 1/16 miles
Folklore/ D Wane Lukas/ E. Prado/ 1:43.85


Did You Realize she never won another race and then he broke her down, I think out of all the horses to win a BC race last year, she was the 1st one to run back. What other horses out of that Filly race came back and won? I don't think Wild Fit has won. Stevie Wonderboys time in the Juvenile was like 12 lenghts faster than folklore it was a weak JF BC.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Do you know for a fact that several vets said that Folklore could come back and be the same horse? I find that very hard to believe. If several vets thought she could come back and be the same horse, they would have probably brought her back.
I would not believe everything trainers say. When Lukas's horse broke down before the 2005 Derby, Lukas totally tried to downplay the injury. On an interview on TVG he said that "these things happen all the time during Derby week, a cracked sesamoid, a quarter crack, a bruised foot, etc." He was trying to play to the people that don't know anything. How could he compare a bruised foot or a quarter crack with a broken sesamoid. It was the most ridiculous thing I've ever heard. He was basicaly saying that a broken sesamoid is no big deal and that horses pull out of the Derby a few days before the race with these nagging injuries all the time.

[Danzig]

from what i read, they said she could resume training after a break. but that they didn't want to compromise her, so she was retired. they didn't want to chance her not being as good, and i'm sure her third in her one race this year probably had something to do with that. we all know top two year olds don't always continue on at three. look at the past several winners of the bc filly race--SFF only showed flashes of her early brilliance, than there was halfbridled and sweet catomine to name a few.

as for wild fit, she's a closer, they don't always get there in time. i remember right after, when she was bought for big bucks for her potential as a broodmare saying they paid WAY too much for her, based on her pedigree....she's a flash in the pan imo. that race is one indication of a good race result not necessarily meaning it's a good horse.

[seconditis]

Danzig, I am wiling to admit Lukas gets more abuse than the rest, but do you really think it is just out of spite? Maybe so, but you still have not touched on the subject as to why he can't train older horses and why is he terrible now?

[DiscreetCat=Monster]

Danzig, I am wiling to admit Lukas gets more abuse than the rest, but do you really think it is just out of spite? Maybe so, but you still have not touched on the subject as to why he can't train older horses and why is he terrible now?


I don't remember the last older horse Lukas had. I guess owners are taking note and quite giving him all these millions of dollars worth of horses and then considering themselves lucky if the horse makes it to the end of his 3yo year without breaking down.

[seconditis]

AS long as he keeps running in baby races I'm happy. People still bet his horses blind and hard even though he's winning at a 4% clip. Best value around Lukas in a baby race, all other horses have value.

[Danzig]

I don't remember the last older horse Lukas had. I guess owners are taking note and quite giving him all these millions of dollars worth of horses and then considering themselves lucky if the horse makes it to the end of his 3yo year without breaking down.

orientate maybe? four year old winner of the bc sprint in '02, named champ sprinter.
azeri was older when she ran for him. definitely a champ. some said they liked her better when facing colts, while others liked her only running and winning against west coast mares.


why is he not as good now? hell, he's old. maybe he's tired. maybe the drive isn't there. who knows? happens to the best of them. how many did willie shoemaker win in his prime? how about when he was 'over the hill'? became the oldest jock to win the derby on ferdinand, so some of it was still there--much like dwl still winning a big one now and then. it happens.

all i know is people have been slinging mud at dwl for years, most of my life! but he's done so much. and he's not the only to lose horses, to suffer breakdowns, to win some, to lose others. to have high priced horses who did nada, it happens to everyone in the biz. but he's under a microscope...
but it's like bailey, people liked to bash on him...then he retired so eventually someone else will be wearing the bulls eye. much like lukas, when he's gone the venom will be directed elsewhere--baffert gets a lot of grief, maybe it'll be his turn.

[Rupert Pupkin]

I was the first one to say that horse in Europe should not have run. If Fallon thought the horse didn't feel right, the horse should have been scratched. I don't know all the details, but if Fallon thought the horse was lame and O'Brien insited on running the horse, then O'Brien is totally to blame.
With regards to Lukas, he obviously is going to get more criticism when one of his horses breaks down than other tainers and rightfully so. He is known for running horses that are dead-lame. He runs his horses no matter what. When one of his horses breaks down, it is usually not a fluke. I don't know much about Michael Matz, but I don't think he breaks down a lot of horses. It appears that what happened to Barbaro was a fluke thing. Why would anyone crticize Matz? That's a totally different situation from Lukas, who breaks down so many that some insurance companies will not insure his horses.
An analogy would be to compare a 50 year old man who has had 4 automobile accidents in his life to another 50 year old guy that has had 25 automobile accidents and was drunk for all of them. Danzig would say, "Why are they criticizing this guy with the 25 drunk driving accidents. That other guy has had accidents too. Why don't you criticize him?" The reason is obvious. In the case of the guy with the 4 crashes, there is nothing you can say. People have accidents even if they're really careful. With the other guy who has 25 accidents, these accidents were preventable. When you drive drunk, you greatly increase your chances of getting in an accident.
When you are a trainer, you greatly increase the chances of having your horses break down, if you keep injecting the horses and force them to run when they are hurt. That's why D Wayne's horses keep breaking down. That's why D Wayne gets so much criticism. Why is that so hard for you to understand?

[Ruhlmann]

About the only older horse I remember Lukas having was Steinlen. BC Miler Champ and Horse of the year, I think. It's not so much how many horses broke down with Lukas because he had lots of horses which raised his percentage to have more break down. His thoughts are more with the owners that "broke down". Gene Klien, WT White, and Bob Lewis were major clients with deep pockets. When those guys died, I bet a little bit of D Wayne went with him. While watching the week before the Derby by Yum this year, you sensed a different D Wayne. Still with an opinion, but not about his horse. He was undercover. The man has seen it and done it all. At 70, I think he deserves all respect and let that sleepy dog be.

[Danzig]

what is so hard to understand is where you come up with an analogy like that!
i'm not stupid richi (unlike your new moniker, sheesh). i don't belond to a dwl fan club, i was never a fan. by the same token i don't understand why others are so quick to pile on. he's the big guy, an easy target. hell, fire away. i'm sure lukas will dry his tears with $100 bills....

[Rupert Pupkin]

He's not the big guy. He can't win a race. The big guys are Pletcher and Frankel.
My analogy was perfect. Do you understand what an analogy is? I love people who always will say that an analogy is not good but they don't explain why it's not good. The anology was perfect. I explained why the analogy was a good analogy. It was a good analogy because in both cases you had individuals engaging in reckless, high-risk behavior. If you are constantly driving drunk, you are going to get in a lot of accidents. If you are constanly running horses that are hurt, you're going to have a lot of horses break down. It's that simple.
With regard to the poster who said that Lukas' percentage of breakdowns is high because he has a lot of horses, that is totally inaccurate. A trainer that has a lot of horses will have a higher total number of breakdowns, but he will not have a higher percenatge of breakdowns. If one trainer has 1,000 horses over a 20 year period and 50 of those horses break down, that means that 5% of his horses broke down. If another guy had 400 horses and he had 20 horses break down, then that would also be 5%. These guys would have an equal number of breakdowns in terms of percentages.

[Rupert Pupkin]

The notion that Lukas is only criticized because he is a big trainer is absurd. If people just wanted to criticize someone because they were on top, they would be knocking Pletcher and Frankel. Lukas is criticized for legitimate reasons. As I said before, he is the only trainer out there that will just keep running a horse even after the horse has a serious injury. He will not turn a horse out. That is why he is criticized. That is why you never see his horses come back and do well of layoffs.
If a groom or assitant trainer goes up to Todd Plethcer or Bob Baffert and tells them that a horse is starting to get a bad tendon, the horse will get some time off. If one of Lukas' assistants or grooms tells him that the horse is starting to get a tendon, Lukas ignores it. He says, "Oh that's nothing. That's not a big deal. This horse can keep running." I heard one story where an assistant trainer told Lukas that a horse had some swelling in his tendon. Lukas told the assistant that he was wrong and that it was just a cosmetic thing.

[seconditis]

Rupert, my point exactly. If you are a great trainer you can win with million dollar yearlings or what you have to work with. I could understand if this guy went from 25% winner on the big circuits to 10% if he wasn't buying every horse he wanted. He went from 25% to 3% after he didn't have every expensive horse in the country.

He did revolutinize the sport, but not as a great trainer. He did it by selling big owners into buying every horse he wanted, and have the best trainers working for him (Pletcher) making sure they won.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Lukas still gets great horses. He used to outspend everyone by 50x. Now he just outspends them by 10x. He was at the 2 year old sales last year spending more than anyone. I was sitting right next to him at Barretts last year. He was buying the best horses at the sale for $500,000 a piece. In addition, he bought some really expensive yearlings. He bought one yearling for the Lewises for around $2 million. If a trainer has a $2 million bankroll for a yearling sale, that is a lot of money. You can get some really nice horses for $200,000 a piece. That would buy you 10 really nice yearlings. There are very few trainers that have a $2 million bankroll for a single sale. I would estimate that less than 1% of trainers have that kind of money to spend. Lukas had way more money than that. He spent $2 million on a single horse.
In addition to all the expensive horses he bought last year, he also got a lot of really nice home-breds. He got a bunch of Storm Cats.
It's absurd to say that he doesn't get good horses any more and that he doesn't spend much money any more. It is simply not true. He doesn't have nearly as much money to spend as he used to, but he still has more than 99% of the other trainers.

[Scurlogue Champ]

I honestly have never seen someone so dedicated to making sure everyone knows about something.

It is almost as if Lukas is running for governor and you are his opponent's campaign manager.

Why do you make so much of an effort running Lukas and his horsemanship into the ground? You did it on ESPN, and you are doing it again.

Is there a personal vendetta? I'm sure there are plenty of trainers out there who are idiots that you could attack, it's not like it takes any real education to get your trainers license.

What is your huge problem with Lukas? If it is so severe, why didn't you just go up and tell him what he was doing wrong when you were "sitting right next to him at the Barretts last year?"

I don't understand how, if he has been committing these egregious errors for so long, that all these expert horsemen haven't just walked over and said "Listen Wayne, you are doing this all wrong. Let us professionals who make it on day rates alone show you what is going on here."

I am serious here Richi. Is there something personal, and how has it gotten so bad that no one will tell him?

[Rupert Pupkin]

As I said in a previous post, I don't know what goes on at smaller tracks with $5,000 horses. I'm sure there is a lot of really bad stuff going on in terms of lame horses being forced to run horses breaking down. There is even bad stuff going on at Santa Anita with the cheaper horses. However, Lukas is the only trainer that I am aware that treats good horses like $5,000 claimers. When I say that he treats them like $5k claimers, I am talking about the way he refuses to turn them out and will keep running them even with serious injuries. He basically won't turn them out until they are physically incapable of running. I don't know any other trainer that does that. That is why I can't stand him. He is an absolute butcher.
To answer your question, I highly doubt that many trainers go up to Lukas or any other trainer and tell them that they don't know how to train. That doesn't happen in any field. A doctor doesn't go up to another doctor and tell him that he is a lousy doctor.
The things I tell you about Lukas are not a secret. Everyone on the backstretch will tell you the same thing I'm telling you. Ever since we have had these debates, has anyone in the busines that posts on these boards ever disputed anything that I have said about Lukas? The answer is no. People like Honu and Landson have never had a problem with anything that I have said about Lukas. Whenever they have chimed in to the discussion, they have always agreed with everyting I have said.

[Dunbar]

With regard to the poster who said that Lukas' percentage of breakdowns is high because he has a lot of horses, that is totally inaccurate. A trainer that has a lot of horses will have a higher total number of breakdowns, but he will not have a higher percenatge of breakdowns. If one trainer has 1,000 horses over a 20 year period and 50 of those horses break down, that means that 5% of his horses broke down. If another guy had 400 horses and he had 20 horses break down, then that would also be 5%. These guys would have an equal number of breakdowns in terms of percentages.

Okay, but do you have the numbers for Lukas? What % of his horses have actually broken down? What's the average for Frankel, Baffert, Pletcher, etc? Lukas has been the focus of attention going back to before Union City. Once someone gets a bad rep, people tend to remember absolutely every bad thing that happens.

Someone mentioned in passing that Halfbridled and Sweet Catomine didn't have much success in their 3-yr-old seasons either. But no one thinks for a minute that Mandella and Canani are to blame. However, as soon as Folklore is mentioned, well, that's another data point against Lukas.

Rupert, I don't doubt your observations about the way Lukas treats his horses, but I question the conclusion. You are saying that a higher percentage of Lukas's horses break down. Do you have numbers to support that claim?

--Dunbar

[Rupert Pupkin]

As I have stated before, his percentages of breakdowns is so high that that there are insurance companies that will not insure his horses. I don't have the numbers but the insurance companies have them. In addition, he has more horses get eased and pulled up than anyone. The numbers are stagerring. I don't remember what the exact figure was but his number of horses that ease is around 3x or 4x times higher than the average trainer. The numbers confirm what everyone in the business already knows.

[Buffymommy]

The dude is 70 years old. Give the guy a break! Are you as good at 70 as you are at say 40 or 50? Dang. The dude had no where to go but down. And for those critizing how he trains horses back in his heyday, do you honestly think that the other trainers around weren't doing the same exact thing he was? Not all but more than not.

Give the guy a break. He is in his 70s and starting to slow down. The dude was on top of the world at one time. I still remember when Winning Colors won the Kentucky Derby. (LOVED THAT FILLY as well as his other top filly Lady's Secret). The man has had champions. You may not like how he got there, but he got there nonetheless. Others were probably doing the same things he was training and they didn't get there, he did.

Give the Lukas bashing a rest will ya? Do we have to discuss it every week?

[miraja2]

I generally agree with the Lukas-bashers, but I don't think Going Wild ran in all 3 legs of the TC last year. My memory may be failing me, but I think he only ran in the Derby and the Preakness. I am almost positive that he did not run in the Belmont.

[eurobounce]

Lukas was never known to train older horses. His drive was to win TC races and that is all. All owners know this. Back in the 80's and 90's you gave your horse to Lukas if you wanted to win a TC race. Lukas has had some good older horses--Spain, Cat Thief to name a couple. But Lukas is old school and I don't know how you can argue his success. The thing about Lukas that is so neat is the success of his prodigy. Not only did he train several champions but he was also the mentor to some of the best trainers in the game today. To me, that is a sign of a good trainer.

[Dunbar]

As I have stated before, his percentages of breakdowns is so high that that there are insurance companies that will not insure his horses. I don't have the numbers but the insurance companies have them. In addition, he has more horses get eased and pulled up than anyone. The numbers are stagerring. I don't remember what the exact figure was but his number of horses that ease is around 3x or 4x times higher than the average trainer. The numbers confirm what everyone in the business already knows.

Again, this could be a combination of selective memory and the number of horses he trains. I don't know how many he is training now, but he used to have an empire. Of course he was going to have 3x to 4x the number of eases as an "average trainer". I know you are asserting that his percentage is also much higher, but, well, I'd like to see figs that support that assertion.

As far as the insurance companies, go...this sounds like 2nd or 3rd hand info. Do we know if it is the big insurance companies that won't insure him?

Again, I am not doubting your observations that Lukas will run horses that shouldn't be running. But I'd need more than anecdotal evidence before I'd condemn him for actually breaking down a higher percentage of horses than his peers.

--Dunbar

[Rupert Pupkin]

Dunbar, I'm not sure I understand your question regarding his percentage of horses that ease. The information is straight forward. Not only is it easy to see from observation, but the numbers show it to be true. How often do you see a Mandella, Pletcher, Frankel, Clement, or Ellis horse ease? It is extremely rare. You see Lukas horses easing all the time. There is no innocent explanation for it. He constantly runs horses that are so lame that they don't even finish the race. By the way, I believe that the figures included any horse that got beat by over 30 lengths.
With regard to the insurance companies, I know for sure that one of the biggest companies will not insure his horses.
I am really baffled at some of the questions that you guys come up with. You know that I love analogies so I will give you another one. We see the same guy stumble out of a bar every night. It is obvious that he is an alcholic. Not only do we see him stumble out of the bar every night but we know that he has over 10 DUI arrests. You would be asking me "How can we be sure he is an alcoholic? Are you sure that the average person doesn't have 10 DUIs? How do you know that the police don't just have it in for this guy? are you sure that people are exaggerating about this guy? I'm sure that everybody has gotten drunk before."
This is what your questions and comments sound like. I don't know what you guys ae looking for. Everything I'm telling you is true. Everyone in the business that has ever chimed into these debates has said the same thing. All the evidence supports what I'm telling you. I don't know what else there is to say. If you don't want to believe it then don't believe it.

[videogirl10]

i have a question....if lukas's horses aren't being insured b/c of his problems, then why do owners still go to him? wouldn't they want their high priced horses insured? and if he isn't doing a good job, then why do owners send their horses to him?

[1st_Saturday_in_May]

D.W. Lukas 2006 statistics

215 starters - 15 win - 32 place - 33 show - $1,117,622

6.97% winners (lowest among top 100 trainers in nation per Equibase)
37.2% in the money (96th among top 100 trainers in nation per Equibase)

Hate to say it, but if this is the best he can do with clients like Beverly Lewis and Overbrook maybe it is time for him to hang it up. Yes, he did get Folklore a win in the BCJF, but for me two horses in the past four Triple Crowns really show me that this guy is just reaching. Both Going Wild and Ten Cents a Shine were TROUNCED in the final KD preps with no excuses yet he continued on to the Derby and when the were crushed there, he went to the Preakness. Why, who knows? I personally will not be betting this guy at all anymore...

[Rootdog1]

I can back up the insurance statement. His DNF rates are the highest of any top/middle tier trainer, and most owners that use him pay a premium for insurance. Why he still gets horses is a great question......he still sells the dream and has enough history/reputation for those believers out there.

[Rupert Pupkin]

RootDog, If there is any way you could get those exact figures, it would be great if you could post them. As I said, I don't know the exact figure but I know that his percenatge of horses that ease was around 3x or 4x higher than average.
I'm sure that some people would like to know the exact figures.

[Unbridled]

You have stated your case tirelessly about Lukas running lame horses and having horses eased far more times then his elite company, but do you really think he does what he pleases with these horses without consulting his big time owners. I don't think so? This game is all about results and winning and if you can not identify with that then I digress. Rup- if you like analogies so much then here is one for you- Joe Paterno arguably one of the greatest college coaches and classy guys is basically told win or else in 2004; well program had two great back to back years. His team last year flew under the radar the whole season until the year end Bowl games. Now with Lukas- if someone had to light a fire under his asss to get him to start producing don't you really think he would do this under most circumstances. Yes by injecting steroids into horses and yes by injecting their knees and running them through the lameness they can not feel, but will eventually break down and go lame. The driving force in this game is all about results- Why then would Coolmore give this 13 million Forestry filly too Pletcher? It's results plain and simple. Now if they hit the jackpot with this filly the residual value of Forestry goes through the roof. Who owns Forestry? You guessed it Coolmore.

Coolmore paid 16 million for a Forestry colt, not a filly. The Jones' raced Forestry and own him. He stands at Taylor Made.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Monipenny, Lukas' biggest ownners the last few years have been and Bob and Beverly Lewis. You could not have better ownes than that. The Lewises are not demanding. They don't put pressure on Lukas. They let him do whatever he wants.
I do agree with you that some of the lessser trainers may get pressured by demanding owners. These trainers may be pressurd to do things that they don't want to do. That is not the case with Lukas.

[Scurlogue Champ]

He just finally got a win at Churchill.

Ex Caelis

[Cajungator26]

Coolmore paid 16.2 million for a Forestry colt, not a filly. The Jones' raced Forestry and own him. He stands at Taylor Made.

Exactly. He's also the leading 3rd crop sire of stakes winners and sire of Discreet Cat. I'm not surprised that Coolmore paid over 16 million for one of his colts. Do you know who the dam of that colt is by?

[Rupert Pupkin]

You're not surprised that someone paid $16 million for a horse at a 2 year olds in training sale? You should be shocked. Everyone there was shocked. The previous record was $5 million. If the horse would have sold for $6 million, even that would have seen surprising. To see a horse sell for $16 million was shocking.

[Cajungator26]

You're not surprised that someone paid $16 million for a horse at a 2 year olds in training sale? You should be shocked. Everyone there was shocked. The previous record was $5 million. If the horse would have sold for $6 million, even that would have seen surprising. To see a horse sell for $16 million was shocking.

Nothing surprises me in this day and age... $16 mil is pocket change to an organization like Coolmore.

[Unbridled]

Exactly. He's also the leading 3rd crop sire of stakes winners and sire of Discreet Cat. I'm not surprised that Coolmore paid over 16 million for one of his colts. Do you know who the dam of that colt is by?


Unbridled, what a coincidence! Here's a link to his pedigree:

http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2006/0228/153.pdf

I was wrong, they paid $16 million.

[Cajungator26]

Unbridled, what a coincidenc! Here's a link to his pedigree:

http://www.fasigtipton.com/catalogs/2006/0228/153.pdf

I was wrong, they paid $16 million.

That colt has one hell of a pedigree. I hope to God he can run... LOL

[Rupert Pupkin]

I'm not going to go into any details about the transaction for that Forrestry colt. If someone else who is in the business wants to chime in and explain what actually happened they can. I will tell you one thing. They did not pay $16 million for that horse. There is a lot of funny business that goes on at these sales. Pretty much everyone in the business knows that they did not pay $16 million for that horse. I'll leave it at that.

[oracle80]

I'm not going to go into any details about the transaction for that Forrestry colt. If someone else who is in the business wants to chime in and explain what actually happened they can. I will tell you one thing. They did not pay $16 million for that horse. There is a lot of funny business that goes on at these sales. Pretty much everyone in the business knows that they did not pay $16 million for that horse. I'll leave it at that.

LOL!! Richi I know as well, but I'm not going there either. Made for great press though!!!

[Rupert Pupkin]

Oracle, How is Wonder Lady Ann doing? I know you said she had a breathing problem last time. Did it require surgery? Were they able to fix it?

[Scurlogue Champ]

I would like to hear the story of what they really paid.

How about a PM?

[seconditis]

Come on Richie and Oracle, I'm dying for the true story. Why does it need to stay secret?

[Rupert Pupkin]

I'll e-mail you guys. Give me your e-mail addresses.

[Scurlogue Champ]

xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

[Danzig]

i took the bidding war on the forestry colt to just be more of the feud that started a couple years ago between those two. be interesting to know the rest of the story.
oracle, you have my email...i am very discreet, would like to hear about the deal behind the deal.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Unbridled,
I tried to answer your message but it wouldn't work for some reason. It kept saying that I wasn't loggen in. Anyway, you were right on the money. What you said in the e-mail was correct.

[seconditis]

Richie hook me up, bigler25@hotmail.com

[eurobounce]

The way that money is transferred in horse racings is one of the weirdest in all of sports. But like Oracle said---$16mm makes for a good story. I think it would be safe to assume that you can cut that $16mm in half--lol.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Alright Monipenny I will e-mail you. This is the last e-mail I am doing on the subject. My hotmail acoount does not save my sent messages so I have to keep re-typing this e-mail.

[Dunbar]

Alright Monipenny I will e-mail you. This is the last e-mail I am doing on the subject. My hotmail acoount does not save my sent messages so I have to keep re-typing this e-mail.

Rupert, isn't there is a little box under the message that you check if you want to save the message? "Copy Message to Sent Folder"

That's the way mine has always shown up.

--Dunbar

[oracle80]

Come on Richie and Oracle, I'm dying for the true story. Why does it need to stay secret?


It doesn't, but repeating "rumors" about zillionaires on a website is a very good way to get yourself in hot water. I'm like Col. Klink, I know nothing.

[eurobounce]

That was funny. Cracking the Da Vinci code is easier to crack than the trail of some of these deals--lol. But like Oracle--I know nothing.

[PSH]

You think Lucas' horses are reading Derby Trail?
Two winners the last two days. Yes, favorites but winners nontheless.

Whittingham said never knock a horse until he is dead
Maybe the same should apply to trainers....

Just a thought...

By the way, i am not a Wayne fan

[oracle80]

LOL!! I was thinking the same thing when he won the race just now. he must have read Derbytrail and decided to show Playa a thing or two. lol

[ezrabrooks]

You think Lucas' horses are reading Derby Trail?
Two winners the last two days. Yes, favorites but winners nontheless.

Whittingham said never knock a horse until he is dead
Maybe the same should apply to trainers....

Just a thought...

By the way, i am not a Wayne fan

Whittingham said never knock a horse until he is dead... I don't know if he really said it...but god I like it.. Good one!!

Ez

[Rupert Pupkin]

DWL was due to start winning a couple of races. He was 0 for 34 at Churchill going into this week. I wouldn't hold a short-term slump against someone. Anyone can have a short-term slump. I would be more concerned with his record for the year. For the year, he has over 200 starts and his winning percentage is 7%. That's really bad. I'm not expecting him to have a good year but I would expect him to do better than he's doing. By the end of the year, I think he'll have his winning percentage up to 10% or so. I think he was at 12% last year.
Just to be clear about my position on DWL, I do think he was the MVP of trainers in the 1980s. It doesn't really matter how he did it. The bottom line is that he did do it. To be a really successful trainer, it takes a lot more than just being a good trainer. Here are some of the important components to being really successful as a trainer: 1. Having good assisstants. 2. Having good vets. 3. Knowing how to use the vets properly. 4. Having good people skills. This would include keeping your owners happy, being a good public relations guy, being a good self-promoter, etc. 5. Being able to raise money. 6. Being well organized and knowing how to delegate. 7. Being good at picking out young horses, etc.
There are so many components. I'm sure you guys could come with 20 more of them. Anyway, the bottom line is that DWL did these things better than any other trainer in the 1980s. I have to give him credit for that.
On the other hand, there are many ways of judging success. Here is a hypothetical. Tell me who was more successful between Trainer A and Trainer B. Let's suppose that Trainer A gets his owners to spend $20 million. They end up winning some really big races and they get a few million dollars in purses. Overall though, they end up losing $5 million. Trainer B gets his owners to spend $2 million. They win a few big races but not nearly as many as Trainer A's owners. However, Trainer B's owners end up with a small profit. Who was more successful between Trainer A and Trainer B? It depends how you measure success. You could say that Trainer A was more successful because he won more big races and his horses earned more in purses. On the other hand, you could say that Trainer B was more successful becasue his owners made a profit.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Going back to my previous post, I would have to say that the great majority of trainers out there don't really care how their owners do. Most trainers just want to make as much money as they can and they could care less how their owners do.
There are a few trainers out there that are really conscientious and really ethical and they treat the owner's money like it is their own money. I have this one trainer who is like that. He will see a horse that he loves at a sale and yet he won't let the owner buy it becasue he thinks the price is too high. The owner will want to bid $400,00 for the horse but the trainer won't let the owner go higher than $300,000 on the horse. There are so few trainers like this. Most trainers would not care how much the owner spends on the horse. Most trainers just want the horse and hope that the owner will pay whatever price it takes to get the horse. My one trainer who is so conscientious is very philosphical about the subject. I asked him why he would stop an owner from bidding on a horse that they both really like. Here is what he said: "If I let my owner overpay for horses, the owner will lose money in the long run. If he loses a lot of money, he will eventually quit the business. I want to keep him as an owner for a long time, so I will do everything I can to make sure that he makes money so he will last in the business." There are very few trainers with this kind of attitude.

[Dunbar]

Going back to my previous post, I would have to say that the great majority of trainers out there don't really care how their owners do. Most trainers just want to make as much money as they can and they could care less how their owners do.
There are a few trainers out there that are really conscientious and really ethical and they treat the owner's money like it is their own money. I have this one trainer who is like that. He will see a horse that he loves at a sale and yet he won't let the owner buy it becasue he thinks the price is too high. The owner will want to bid $400,00 for the horse but the trainer won't let the owner go higher than $300,000 on the horse. There are so few trainers like this. Most trainers would not care how much the owner spends on the horse. Most trainers just want the horse and hope that the owner will pay whatever price it takes to get the horse. My one trainer who is so conscientious is very philosphical about the subject. I asked him why he would stop an owner from bidding on a horse that they both really like. Here is what he said: "If I let my owner overpay for horses, the owner will lose money in the long run. If he loses a lot of money, he will eventually quit the business. I want to keep him as an owner for a long time, so I will do everything I can to make sure that he makes money so he will last in the business." There are very few trainers with this kind of attitude.

Very good stuff, Rupert. A nice example of how doing the right thing can also make good monetary sense (for both trainer and owner) in the long run.

--Dunbar

[Danzig]

of course there are also instances where the owner decides to overbid what the trainer feels should be the top price. that gets you stories like cecil peacock and brother derek. there's also the record colt that sold for 16million. one half of the pinhooking partnership said stop when they bid around 350k, the other continued and they got the colt. now, of course those stories don't happen every day, but they do happen. and yeah, there are a lot of shady dealers out there. read a story some months ago about a broker who convinced a guy to spend a lot of money on a lot of crap horses, rather than trying to buy a few nice ones. the owner got out of the business, due to the cost of trying to keep so many horses in training.

it's not a business for the faint of heart. how would anyone like to have been william young, eventual owner of overbrook farm? well, we know the ending....but at the very beginning, a friend talked him into buying a yearling--his first purchase as a t'bred owner. colt died the next day. several hundred grand down the tubes. luckily he stayed in the game.

[Rupert Pupkin]

of course there are also instances where the owner decides to overbid what the trainer feels should be the top price. that gets you stories like cecil peacock and brother derek. there's also the record colt that sold for 16million. one half of the pinhooking partnership said stop when they bid around 350k, the other continued and they got the colt. now, of course those stories don't happen every day, but they do happen. and yeah, there are a lot of shady dealers out there. read a story some months ago about a broker who convinced a guy to spend a lot of money on a lot of crap horses, rather than trying to buy a few nice ones. the owner got out of the business, due to the cost of trying to keep so many horses in training.

it's not a business for the faint of heart. how would anyone like to have been william young, eventual owner of overbrook farm? well, we know the ending....but at the very beginning, a friend talked him into buying a yearling--his first purchase as a t'bred owner. colt died the next day. several hundred grand down the tubes. luckily he stayed in the game.
What you're saying is correct. Some owners will buy horses against a trainer's wishes. In addition, there are some owners that want to win some big races and they don't care how much they spend to make to happen. In my previous post, I was really referring to cases where the trainer makes all the decisions. But evn in those cases, you can't really blame the trainer for spending huge money and overpaying for horses if the owner tells him that money is no object.

[Danzig]

if you have the right trainer, you can leave it up to him or her. problem is that there are a lot of naive people who get taken. of course that happens quite often all over, so obviously it will happen in racing as well.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Did you guys catch the interview with Kiaran McLaughlin on TVG. He was talking about the 7 years that he worked for Lukas. He basically said that he learned a lot about how to meet owners and how to be organized. He never said anything about learning training methods. I'm glad he was honest. As I've said before, none of the guys that worked for Lukas train anything like Lukas. Their styles are completely different.
Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that these guys were not lucky to work for Lukas. Quite to the contrary. They were extremely fortunate to work for Lukas. Lukas teaches you the most important things. He teaches you how to to be successful. He teaches you the business aspect of how to be a succesful trainer which is the most imprtant thing. None of thse guys needed lessons on how to train. Guys like Pletcher, McLaughlin, and Hennig were already excellent horsemen. That is why Lukas hired them. Lukas hires the best. He always hired guys that were capable of running things when he wasn't there. He always hired the best and the brightest. He wouldn't hire some beginner that didn't know their stuff.
When you look at guys like Pletcher, McLAughlin, Hennig, Stewart, etc. I think that all of these guys owe much of their success to Lukas because he taught them all the intangibles of how to be a successful trainer.

[Kasept]

When you look at guys like Pletcher, McLAughlin, Hennig, Stewart, etc. I think that all of these guys owe much of their success to Lukas because he taught them all the intangibles of how to be a successful trainer.

R/P,

Pletcher and Hennig owe SOME of their success to DWL... I'd say they owe MUCH more of it to their trainer fathers.

In addition, Kieran and Dale Romans also got their starts at the same time as Hennig in Mark's dad's barn. (Kieran is married to Mark's sister).

Kieran also owes something to Del Carroll, who helped him when he was struggling right at the start of his training career...

But they ALL do look to DWL as the guy that taught them how to run a big time professional operation.

Steve

[Rupert Pupkin]

R/P,

Pletcher and Hennig owe SOME of their success to DWL... I'd say they owe MUCH more of it to their trainer fathers.

In addition, Kieran and Dale Romans also got their starts at the same time as Hennig in Mark's dad's barn. (Kieran is married to Mark's sister).

Kieran also owes something to Del Carroll, who helped him when he was struggling right at the start of his training career...

But they ALL do look to DWL as the guy that taught them how to run a big time professional operation.

Steve
Yes, I agree with you 100%. There are alot of fans out there that don't know that. Many of the fans think that DWL taught these guys how to train. In reality, when thse guys were working for DWL, he was actually learning from them when it came to the actual horses.