Kasept
06-15-2011, 07:06 AM
BELMONT PARK
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Super cancelled..
Most Likely: #5 Chairman Tucker 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Wise Stop 4-1 WON ($6.70)
Next Best: #4 Masala 2-1 2nd
$1 Exacta (1-4) Paid $11.40
2nd: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
A lot of speed signed on here, and the 8-5 fave seems versatile..
Super cancelled..
Most Likely: #4 Dawly 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Tatao's Widcat 5-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #6 Ultimo Principle 4-1 5th
$1 Exacta (3-4) Paid $15.30
3rd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Arena Elvira 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Ask the Moon 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Ailalea 5-2 5th
4th: MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)
$1.1MM P6 Carryover starts here..
Top pair exit same race and seem to have little seperating them. (Empiricist was further back in that event as well, and then competed in an OTT heat.) Imaging has faced serious foes in FL this winter and figures as the most likely upsetter if the faves fail. Halefellow Wellmet will get play and I won't fault those including him. But I wouldn't trust the ACRC debut fig, and the horse behind him there (Bellhouse) is a chronic case that can't win..
Most Likely: #7 Clear Attempt 9-5 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #3 Colossal Gift 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Imaging 5-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Empiricist 10-1 3rd
$1 Exacta (7-3) Paid $6.50
$1 Trifecta (7-3-8) Paid $31.50
$1 Superfecta (7-3-8-5) Paid $100.20
5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #8 Fleeting Glance 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Grace and Courage 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Must Be Love 5-1 WON ($9.60)
Super Add: #3 Olive Eye 8-1 9th
$1 Exacta (1-2) Paid $18.00
$1 Trifecta (1-2-8) Paid $55.00
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 3-4-6
3: 1-2-5
4: 3-5-7-8
5: 1-2-3-8
3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
With the 7th to follow, this middle pair of races are the most difficult portion of the sequence to negotiate. Several here have efforts on their page that can win this, and there are trainer shifts and other karma moves to consider in this chess match of a sprint. Was Able Bellamy just mudlarking in his April win? How much of a move up can you expect from Prince of Danger going to Fawkes from Tesher and facing Empire breds for the first time? How about the first start at 3 for Our Brave Warrior now with Hushion? Turf to dirt a positive move for Trombetta (Decision Point), and gelding did break his maiden on the strip. Is Jungle Rain an AQI Inner jump up only? Many more issues like these to decipher..
Most Likely: #6 Able Bellamy 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Prince of Danger 6-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #10 Our Brave Warrior 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Jungle Rain 7-2 5th
$1 Exacta (9-6) Paid $35.25
$1 Pick 3 (7/1/9) Paid $91.00
7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)
Not a lot of wisdom to impart here as there are almost no auto-tosses out of this brain-bending group. Trips will determine outcome, so you have to cast your lot and hope for the best..
Best Value: #11 Mustang Fever 10-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Ms Stilleto 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Lemon Punch 5-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Downtown Hottie 15-1 5th
8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)
Turf sprint that seems to have a fairly well-defined pecking order. AE #13 Saratoga Steve (5-1) has drawn in and needs to be respected..
Most Likely: #11 Upper Afleet 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #13 Saratoga Steve 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Tudor King 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Backcountry Boy 20-1 10th
9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super)
#8 R Clever Cat 8-5 a SCR!
Best Value: #6 Windsor Star 15-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Vintage Heirloom 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Tillie's Girl 12-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Copious Notes 6-1 WON ($9.80)
<$200 P6 Play:
4: 3-5-7
5: 2-8
6: 6-9
7: 7-11
8: 11-13
9: 3-6
3x2x2x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
<$75 P4 Play:
6: 5-6-9-10
7: 5-7-11
8: 10-11-13
9: 3-4-6-11
4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
Good luck!
Steve
POST-SCRATCHES
1st: CLM, 3+, 6f (P3, DD)
Super cancelled..
Most Likely: #5 Chairman Tucker 5-2 5th
Best Value: #1 Wise Stop 4-1 WON ($6.70)
Next Best: #4 Masala 2-1 2nd
$1 Exacta (1-4) Paid $11.40
2nd: CLM, 3yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD)
A lot of speed signed on here, and the 8-5 fave seems versatile..
Super cancelled..
Most Likely: #4 Dawly 8-5 2nd
Best Value: #3 Tatao's Widcat 5-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #6 Ultimo Principle 4-1 5th
$1 Exacta (3-4) Paid $15.30
3rd: OC/N3X, F&M-3+, 1m (P3, DD)
Most Likely: #5 Arena Elvira 8-5 3rd
Best Value: #2 Ask the Moon 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1 Ailalea 5-2 5th
4th: MSW, 3+, 10f-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)
$1.1MM P6 Carryover starts here..
Top pair exit same race and seem to have little seperating them. (Empiricist was further back in that event as well, and then competed in an OTT heat.) Imaging has faced serious foes in FL this winter and figures as the most likely upsetter if the faves fail. Halefellow Wellmet will get play and I won't fault those including him. But I wouldn't trust the ACRC debut fig, and the horse behind him there (Bellhouse) is a chronic case that can't win..
Most Likely: #7 Clear Attempt 9-5 WON ($4.50)
Next Best: #3 Colossal Gift 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #5 Imaging 5-1 4th
Super Add: #8 Empiricist 10-1 3rd
$1 Exacta (7-3) Paid $6.50
$1 Trifecta (7-3-8) Paid $31.50
$1 Superfecta (7-3-8-5) Paid $100.20
5th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 6f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #8 Fleeting Glance 7-2 3rd
Next Best: #2 Grace and Courage 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Must Be Love 5-1 WON ($9.60)
Super Add: #3 Olive Eye 8-1 9th
$1 Exacta (1-2) Paid $18.00
$1 Trifecta (1-2-8) Paid $55.00
<$75 P4 Play:
2: 3-4-6
3: 1-2-5
4: 3-5-7-8
5: 1-2-3-8
3x3x4x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
6th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
With the 7th to follow, this middle pair of races are the most difficult portion of the sequence to negotiate. Several here have efforts on their page that can win this, and there are trainer shifts and other karma moves to consider in this chess match of a sprint. Was Able Bellamy just mudlarking in his April win? How much of a move up can you expect from Prince of Danger going to Fawkes from Tesher and facing Empire breds for the first time? How about the first start at 3 for Our Brave Warrior now with Hushion? Turf to dirt a positive move for Trombetta (Decision Point), and gelding did break his maiden on the strip. Is Jungle Rain an AQI Inner jump up only? Many more issues like these to decipher..
Most Likely: #6 Able Bellamy 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 Prince of Danger 6-1 WON ($9.20)
Next Best: #10 Our Brave Warrior 5-1 4th
Exotics Use: #5 Jungle Rain 7-2 5th
$1 Exacta (9-6) Paid $35.25
$1 Pick 3 (7/1/9) Paid $91.00
7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)
Not a lot of wisdom to impart here as there are almost no auto-tosses out of this brain-bending group. Trips will determine outcome, so you have to cast your lot and hope for the best..
Best Value: #11 Mustang Fever 10-1 10th
Next Best: #7 Ms Stilleto 3-1 WON ($5.20)
Exotics Use: #5 Lemon Punch 5-1 7th
Super Add: #1 Downtown Hottie 15-1 5th
8th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 6f-IT (DD, Super)
Turf sprint that seems to have a fairly well-defined pecking order. AE #13 Saratoga Steve (5-1) has drawn in and needs to be respected..
Most Likely: #11 Upper Afleet 5-2 2nd
Next Best: #13 Saratoga Steve 5-1 3rd
Best Value: #10 Tudor King 6-1 5th
Exotics Use: #1 Backcountry Boy 20-1 10th
9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 6f-T (Super)
#8 R Clever Cat 8-5 a SCR!
Best Value: #6 Windsor Star 15-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Vintage Heirloom 5-1 2nd
Exotics Use: #11 Tillie's Girl 12-1 6th
Super Add: #4 Copious Notes 6-1 WON ($9.80)
<$200 P6 Play:
4: 3-5-7
5: 2-8
6: 6-9
7: 7-11
8: 11-13
9: 3-6
3x2x2x2x2x2 = 96 x $2 = $192
<$75 P4 Play:
6: 5-6-9-10
7: 5-7-11
8: 10-11-13
9: 3-4-6-11
4x3x3x4 = 144 x .50 = $72
Good luck!
Steve