3/12: Gulfstream (7-11); Tampa Bay (9-12); Oaklawn (7-10); Santa Anita (5-10)

[Kasept]

Was inexcusably sloppy putting Friday plays together before 12p showtime, costing every chance to cash significantly in the highly bettable Santa Anita carryover sequence. P6 paid supremely nice $100k to three winners, and the review of the skein that Rick Hammerle and I undertook on ATR pointed you in the right direction in every leg. For my tickey, omission of Puype -- twice -- was the difference between something good, something special and the nothing received. Firster Shezabigbroad was bet like she couldn't lose in the 5th, and then ran like it, and though I used her in the P4 going three wide, I went just 2 deep on the sextet and felt foolish watching her romp home at even money. Perennial hanger Stoneside came through as advertised on the stretchout in the 6th, and El Martillo was indeed the right other horse with Uh Oh Bango in the feature. But the nightcap cost the conso ($600+) and the P4 as one of the very possible winners, Puype's Line One, hit us like a sucker punch. Did catch a couple P3's and broke even on the FG P4 earlier in the afternoon, but the day felt like a gigantic opportunity missed. Hope you did OK. There's countless spots this Saturday to make a pile! Should be a very good raceday...


GULFSTREAM


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P5, P3, DD, Super)

Deep and potentially productive MSW to start the P5, with several notable pedigrees involved. Albertrani FTS #7 Bayamo is yet another Bernardini, this one out of Known Fact mare Banshee Winds which makes him a half brother of the wonderful Banshee Breeze. Smilin' Phil Serpe brings Police Chatter back for a first time 3yo/second career start, 8 months after this brother of Tout Charmant and Forest Grove found Boys at Toscanova in his 5f debut at Belmont. 5-2 favorite Ninja Blade, a Windmill Manor homebred half brother of stake stalwart My Jen, has managed to run into Dialed In, Travelin Man and Arch Traveler in his three career tries..

Most Likely: #3 Ninja Blade 5-2 2nd
Best Value: #9 Police Chatter 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #12 Redeemed 6-1 WON ($14.80)
Super Add: #6 Ripples n' Waves 10-1 5th


8th: 1st Timely Writer, 3yo, 1m (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Certainly no drama involved with 3yo season debut of juvy Champion Uncle Mo, as Team Todd choose to utilize one turm mile as first step toward Louisville. Anything less than an authoritative, geared down romp will likely be viewed askance..

Most Likely: #1 Uncle Mo 3-5 WON ($2.10)
Best Value: #6 Rattlesnake Bridge 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Rocking Out 4-1 4th


9th: 25th Palm Beach (G3), 3yo, 9f-Outer Turf (P3, DD, Super)

Solid, well matched set of sophs for this. Pluck will SCR for the 1m spot at TAM today (7th)..

Most Likely: #5 Queen'splatekitten 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 Newsdad 10-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Master Dunker 6-1 6th
Super Add: #10 Rafe 15-1 8th


10th: 67th Gulfstream Park H. (G2), 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

This is an exceptionally good group and flies in the face of the braying naysayers and nattering nabobs that yearn for the alleged good ol' days when there were 14 Champions lined up in every handicap division race ever run..

Best Value: #4 Duke of Mischief 6-1 4th
Next Best: #1 Rule 3-1 6th
Exotics Use: #7 Soaring Empire 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #5 Jackson Bend 8-1 5th


11th: MDN CLM, 3yo-F, 8.5f-Outer Turf (Super)

Most Likely: #2 Green's Hard Ten 7-2 WON ($5.20)
Best Value: #3 Miss Kitten 5-1 11th
Next Best: #5 Zeffee 6-1 5th
Super Add: #8 Fly Bye Wildcat 8-1 6th


<$50 P5 Play:

7: 3-9-12
8: 1
9: 5-6-9
10: 1-4-5-6-7
11: 2-3

3x1x3x5x2 = 90 x .50 = $45


<$75 P4 Play:

8: 1
9: 2-4-5-6-7-9
10: 1-3-4-5-6-7
11: 2-3-5-8

1x6x6x4 = 144 x .50 = $72



TAMPA BAY DOWNS


POST-SCRATCHES


9th: 13th Hillsborough (G3), F&M-4+, 9f-T (P4, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Cherokee Queen 5-1 4th
Next Best: #5 Zagora 5-2 2nd
Exotics Use: #3 Keertana 7-2 3rd
Super Add: #9 Askbut I Won'ttell 4-1 5th


10th: Suncoast, 3yo-F, 1m-40y (P3, DD, Super)

Three fillies involved here are on the Kentucky Oaks Future Wager -- Miss Smarty Pants (50-1), Royal Delta (20-1, Wyomia (50-1) -- and above and beyond them, missies like Niji's Grand Girl, Third Chance, Her Smile and Devilish Lady have run races that make them competitive in this spot. Trickier-than-it-looks event..

Most Likely: #8 Royal Delta 7-2 9th
Best Value: #4 Wyomia 8-1 WON ($15.20)
Next Best: #1 Miss Smarty Pants 4-1 6th
Super Add: #5 Blue Eyed Sweetie 12-1 8th


11th: 31st Tampa Bay Derby (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Thanks in part to the self-important machinations over Uncle Mo's 3yo debut, we are left with a less than vintage edition of this race which has seen a surge in its' importance over the past several years. Bretheren comes back off his Sam Davis score, and if the Super Saver sib exhibits the same '2nd off the break' prowess Pletcher sophs have flashed in recent winters, he should dust this cast of empty resume Derby Trail auditioning types..

Most Likely: #10 Bretheren 1-1: Outside draw a non-issue; His to lose.. 3rd
Next Best: #7 Free Entry 7-2: Solid as 3yo; Tries two turns.. 6th
Best Value: #3 Beamer 10-1: Still owns upside; Ran sneaky 4th in Davis.. 4th
Super Add: #5 Too Experience 8-1: Just one bad race in career; Took to TAM.. 7th


12th: CLM, 4+, 8.5f-T (Super, Super Hi-5)

Would love to come up with something clever here, but just think you have to play it straight with the obvious players..

Most Likely: #4 Marcello 3-1 2nd
Best Value: #9 On Joline 8-1 9th
Next Best: #8 Al Nasr Dream 7-2 WON ($7.20)
Super Add: #7 Stanley G. 8-1 8th
Hi-5 Play: #5 Dr Rico 6-1 3rd


<$50 P4 Play:

9: 3-5-7-8-9
10: 1-4-5-8
11: 10
12: 4-5-7-8-9

5x4x1x5 = 100 x .50 = $50



OAKLAWN PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


7th: 24th Honeybee (G3), 3yo-F, 8.5f (P4, Super)

Similarly to the Suncoast at TAM, five of these 9 are in the "KOFW". As good a race as the San Felipe is for the Derby boys, this filly prep event is the day's top test for lily seekers, and has any number of story lines..

Most Likely: #3 Joyful Victory 4-1 WON ($5.00)
Best Value: #4 Holy Heavens 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Rigoletta 5-2 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Dixie City 7-2 3rd


8th: MSW, 3yo, 8.5f (P3)

Most Likely: #5 Shertzer 9-2 5th
Next Best: #9 Zoebear 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Duca 5-1 WON ($9.20)
Exotics Use: #10 Admiral Rocket 6-1 3rd


9th:52nd Razorback (G3), 4+, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 It Happened Again 5-1 WON ($9.40)
Next Best: #2 Win Willy 2-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Winslow Homer 9-5 6th
Super Add: #6 Thiskyhasnolimit 5-1 2nd


10th CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (Super):

Most Likely: #2 Dirty Cerday 9-2 WON ($)
Best Value: #10 Moneyonthegrass 6-1 5th
Next Best: #12 Muhaaseb 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #3 Garcia's Letter 12-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 3-4
8: 1-5-9
9: 2-5-7
10: 2-3-10-12

2x3x3x4 = $72 $1 P4 (3/7/9-1-5-2) Paid $274.20



SANTA ANITA


POST-SCRATCHES


Another fun card at Santa Anita, which as Rick Hammerle has noted in recent weeks, has found its' stride in the second half of the stand. As discussed above, the Friday carryover sequence was challenging and rewarding for those that got through it, and today's sextet, in addition to the two stakes, is just as strong and harrowing..


5th: MSW, 3yo, 6.5f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Beyond those that have been out on track already, a few well-bred firsters to seriously consider including #8 Just Meteor (Mandella, 9-2), #7 Dancing Joy (Powell, 6-1) and Kirkorian/Shirreffs' son of the great Starrer (#3 Guest Star)..

Most Likely: #10 Photo Shopped 7-2 6th
Best Value: #4 First Blue Angel 12-1 7th
Exotics Use: #6 Cloud Man 8-1 WON ($29.00)
Super Add: #9 Eric the Ram 5-1 5th


6th: 74th Santa Margarita H. (G1), F&M-4+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Looks once again like Always a Princess will try to parlay pace and form edge into third straight stake score. Even money Switch has proven versatile though, and her sprinter's gear will come in handy if Rosario wants to engage Garcia early. And in a case of musical pilots, note that Bejarano acquires the square priced Vision in Gold, who rallied and wired winning her last pair. With the added presence of St. Trinians, there is very little value to be built into your exotics plays, unless you try to fit plausable 'first dirt' underneath candidate Hemera (15-1) onto ducats..

Most Likely: #4 Switch 1-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 Always a Princess 3-1 DNF
Best Value: #7 Hemera 15-1 5th
Super Add: #5 Vision in Gold 5-1 3rd


7th: CLM, F&M-4+, 6.5f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Bella Roja 7-2 5th
Best Value: #4 Higher Incentive 15-1 4th
-Next Best: #2 Rule the Storm 4-1 WON ($9.00)
Super Add: #6 Manhattan Beach 5-1 8th


8th: 74th San Felipe (G2), 3yo, 8.5f (P3, DD, Super)

Amazing how West Coast 3yo picture went from bereft of talent to intriguing in a matter of 3-4 weeks. Stake placements by Jakesam, Surrey Star and Premier Pegasus, emergence of Albergatti, Runflatout and Bench Points, and returns of Jaycito and Awesome Patriot, make this edition of the traditional Santa Anita Derby prep completely fascinating..

Most Likely: #2 Runflatout 4-1: Sadler masterful stretching 'em out.. 10th
Best Value: #1 Albergatti 6-1: Gomez sticks with pedigreed player.. 9th
Next Best: #9 Jaycito 7-2: First time Baffert & Garcia on; Working sharp.. 2nd
Super Add: #4 Awesome Patriot 12-1: Improved in dirt bow; Price is right.. 6th


9th: OC/N3X, F&M-4+, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Catchy Tune 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #6 Gripsholm Castle 8-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Andina 4-1 WON ($6.20)
Super Add: #4 Prytania 6-1 8th


10th: CLM/N2L, 4+, 6f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Gallatin's Run 9-5 WON ($3.80)
Best Value: #5 Scored 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Lichtenstein 3-1 4th
Exotics Use: #11 Sweepemup 7-2 -
Hi-5 Play: #10 Jolly Ollie 15-1 -


<$75 P4 Play:

7: 2-4-5-6
8: 1-2-9
9: 2-6-9
10: 5-9

4x3x3x2 = $72


Good luck!
Steve

[miraja2]

This is an exceptionally good group and flies in the face of the braying naysayers and nattering nabobs that yearn for the alleged good ol' days when there were 14 Champions lined up in every handicap division race ever run..

:tro:

[Coach Pants]

GULFSTREAM


PRE-SCRATCHES


10th: 67th Gulfstream Park H. (G2), 4+, 1m (DD, Super)

This is an exceptionally good group and flies in the face of the braying naysayers and nattering nabobs that yearn for the alleged good ol' days when there were 14 Champions lined up in every handicap division race ever run..

Best Value: #4 Duke of Mischief 6-1
Next Best: #1 Rule 3-1
Exotics Use: #7 Soaring Empire 5-2
Super Add: #5 Jackson Bend 8-1




What about the people who complain about s.hitheads like Pletcher who ruin a pick 4 sequence with their cowardice? The sequence is a pass because if Soaring Empire wins this race and Uncle Mo wins then the payout is complete garbage. And sorry I'm not taking chances with horses coming off layoffs that will more than likely be underlaid in the multis to begin with.

But keep hope alive. It's all about the pretty horsies.

[Kasept]

What about the people who complain about s.hitheads like Pletcher who ruin a pick 4 sequence with their cowardice? The sequence is a pass because if Soaring Empire wins this race and Uncle Mo wins then the payout is complete garbage. And sorry I'm not taking chances with horses coming off layoffs that will more than likely be underlaid in the multis to begin with.

But keep hope alive. It's all about the pretty horsies.
Coach,

Can't argue about the Timely Writer placement, as Gulfstream shouldn't have made it part of the P4 sequence. They could have easily used the 2nd or 4th in that slot instead.

My point is that the GP Handicap is a terrific race under any evaluation and bodes well for the season in the division.

[Coach Pants]

Coach,

Can't argue about the Timely Writer placement, as Gulfstream shouldn't have made it part of the P4 sequence. They could have easily used the 2nd or 4th in that slot instead.

My point is that the GP Handicap is a terrific race under any evaluation and bodes well for the season in the division.
I'm not disagreeing with that. It's a good race.

How difficult would it be for GP to put the Timely Pletcher Workout Mentally Handicapped race last and make the race before the last leg of the pick 5 and 4?

That Austrian must be a complete nightmare to work for. Is there anyone in his circle of advisers that has any common sense and balls?

[mclem0822]

Steve, i think you meant to single Brethren in race 11, not race 10? Good Luck today.
Michael

[Kasept]

Steve, i think you meant to single Brethren in race 11, not race 10? Good Luck today.
Michael

Thx Mike. Just addressed that. Flip-flopped the Suncoast/TB Derby in the P4 grid initially.

BOL today!

[Kasept]

I'm not disagreeing with that. It's a good race.

How difficult would it be for GP to put the Timely Pletcher Workout Mentally Handicapped race last and make the race before the last leg of the pick 5 and 4?

That Austrian must be a complete nightmare to work for. Is there anyone in his circle of advisers that has any common sense and balls?

You're right. That was the solution... running the Mo race last and ending the multi sequences a race ahead. That's actually an issue that Tim Ritvo can address.

[Kasept]

TAM SCR/CHG'S (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechangesTAM-USA.html)

Am guessing that Tampa changes ARE NOT finished.. There is still the AE issue of #14 Stepaside that is unaddressed as an example. (UPDATE: Stepaside now SCR'd...)

IF ADVANCE BETTING.... With all the stakes today, because horses can SCR at will out of stakes, be sure to check back at whatever venue you're playing as there could be changes into the early afternoon.

[freddymo]

You're right. That was the solution... running the Mo race last and ending the multi sequences a race ahead. That's actually an issue that Tim Ritvo can address.

I think you have to place the Derby fav and most significant racing story(2011) in the sweet spot of the card. You cant have him go in the 4th race and you cant have him in the last race. If you fix this stuff the other 100 days a year this wouldnt be a big deal. Not everybody plays pik 4's and everybody who loves racing wants to see Uncle Mo.

[mclem0822]

Just clicked on the Tampa changes again, Stepaside has scratched.

[Kasept]

Just clicked on the Tampa changes again, Stepaside has scratched.

Yup. Had already noted it.. THX

[atolunch]

Steve,

In the Gulf P4, in race 9, you have the #10 Rafe as fourth choice, but go 6 deep and omit him, did you intend to leave off?

Looks like a great day of racing.

Thanks as always for your time and insights, and best of luck.

Here's to a monster day!!

[Kasept]

Steve,

In the Gulf P4, in race 9, you have the #10 Rafe as fourth choice, but go 6 deep and omit him, did you intend to leave off?

Looks like a great day of racing. Thanks as always for your time and insights, and best of luck.

Here's to a monster day!!

Larry,

Thx... In this instance, I did intend to leave him off. I think he's worth using underneath only in-race to boost tris/supers, and prefered to cover some others as win candidates for the multis (whom I'm against otherwise).

Going to be a fun day and evening! BOL!

[Kasept]

TAM SCR/CHG'S (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechangesTAM-USA.html)

GP SCR/CHG'S (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechangesGP-USA.html)

SA SCR/CHG'S (http://www.santaanita.com/liveracing/2011/03/12)

OP SCR/CHG'S (http://www.equibase.com/static/latechanges/html/latechangesOP-USA.html)

[Kasept]

Fooling around with General Consensus, a healthy overlay at 17-1 and climbing, in this Hillsborough at TAM..

[Kasept]

Best. TB Derby. EVER!

[justindew]

Best. TB Derby. EVER!

Weirdest track in America.

[Kasept]

Weirdest track in America.

I think you can chalk that hideous race up to the quality of the particpants. What's the over/under on the top pair's fig? 79.5?

[justindew]

I think you can chalk that hideous race up to the quality of the particpants. What's the over/under on the top pair's fig? 79.5?

I was thinking 75.

As to the other point, yeah, this bunch wasn't strong. But it seems like there is always some former claimer or a horse who just finished 10th hitting the board in TBD's 3-year-old stakes.

[justindew]

I think you can chalk that hideous race up to the quality of the particpants. What's the over/under on the top pair's fig? 79.5?

...and neither of the top 2 is nominated to the TC, in case you were wondering.

[tjfla]

Best. TB Derby. EVER!

Now they just gotta supplement him:D

[Kasept]

...and neither of the top 2 is nominated to the TC, in case you were wondering.


Gosh thanks! I've always wondered what that cute crown with the horsey on it was in the past performances..

[Kasept]

I was thinking 75.

As to the other point, yeah, this bunch wasn't strong. But it seems like there is always some former claimer or a horse who just finished 10th hitting the board in TBD's 3-year-old stakes.

Not so much in recent years.

[justindew]

Gosh thanks! I've always wondered what that cute crown with the horsey on it was in the past performances..

This is my last post.

[Kasept]

This is my last post.

:tro:

I should send you a new tee shirt for that!

[justindew]

:tro:

I should send you a new tee shirt for that!

The one I bought before worked its way into my gym rotation, and is now about 3 sizes too small. Of course the cause could have been all them weights I done lifted.

The overall quality, however, was about 10 times better than all the crap I accumulated from Churchill Downs over the years.

How do you continue to offer such top quality attire at bargain basement prices, Steve?

[Kasept]

SA C/O: $134k

[asudevil]

Best. TB Derby. EVER!

Solid visit to Oldsmar for Ramon. :rolleyes: