Dahoss
11-05-2010, 10:21 PM
Not going to be around at all tomorrow, so am going to put these up now. Just put the bets in. Good luck everyone.
2nd- That was some effort by Nicole H last time. I probably would have picked her had she drawn into the F&M Sprint, so of course I like her here. Dirt is obviously her game and I think she wins and wins big here. Will be using Happy Week underneath. She can run from off the pace, which will be a good thing here with the presence of a decent amount of speed and I think she gets up for second.
4th- Looks like there is a potential for a quick pace here with Typhoon Slew and Madman Diaries. I like both of Michale Stidham's horses in here. Willcox Inn is bred strongly for the grass underneath, as her dam is a half to a couple of millionaires, Cetewayo and Dynaforce. He was a good looking winner first out against a return winner and finished up well last time. Might be able to pick them up late. His uncoupled stablemate could not have been more impressive breaking his maiden first out on the grass against a couple of next out winners. He won like a good thing and it made sense to try him on some synth stakes. He tried the overland route last out and might have moved a bit early. I think he is very dangerous getting back on grass and for good measure, Rosie has won with 15 of 44 mounts for Stidham. I'm betting them both to win and using them in multi's with Utley and Matoba.
5th- I don't see how this race doesn't fall apart. So many need the lead types and I think something has to give. I like Supreme Summit. Gets Gomez who has won on him before. Should be coming best of all late and Puype is 25% synth to dirt. Wise Dan could be any kind and if he can avoid a regression, can win. Hamazing Destiny is probably outclassed here. But, he's run his best races at Churchill, including a narrow loss vs eventual Forego winner Here Comes Ben 3 back. Gets a giant jock switch and could surprise at a giant price. Also using Girolamo in multi's.
6th- I like Central City in here, although I'm not crazy about him being inside. He still ran big last time off the layoff and if he breaks will be in a good spot. Silver Timber should be coming best of all and his rabbit will be making his job easier. Rose Catherine has done nothing wrong and she's one of my favorite horses in training. Might be able to work out a nice trip from the second flight. Grand Aventure had to wait a bit last time and it cost him. Should also be coming well late.
7th- Not crazy about the layoff, but I think Boys in Tosconova is best.
8th- I think the decision to go to the mile is the right one and I think Gio Ponti is going to reward his connections with a win. I know some thought his Shadwell was blah, but I thought Dominguez had him well in hand. He's most effective at a mile and the long stretch at Churchill should only help. What can you say about Goldikova other than she's great. Will be a deserving favorite and might actually be better this year than the last two. Paco Boy gets another chance to turn the tables on Goldikova.
9th- Hurricane Ike for me in here. 3rd off the layoff, two turns to one ran a big race in the Derby Trial over this track and should be able to work out a good spot right off of the lead. Here Comes Ben hasn't done anything wrong this year. Was super impressive getting up last time and will be very tough in here. Theskyhasnolimit moved a but early last time and fought hard down the lane against one of the favorites in the Classic. Also cutting back and returning to a track he's had a lot of success on. Vineyard Haven seemed to dislike running inside last time and he did at Laurel last year also. Draws outside and his best wins this. The question is what does he have left?
10th- I don't really like Workforce in here, but I will include him in pick 4's. I'm betting Dangerous Midge. Blinkers and lasix go on. He romped last time against a horse who won a group 1 next out and should the best price of the Euros. Behkabad had a tough go last time and is a must use. Also using Al Khali who does always seem to find trouble but he's been very good lately.
11th- Win or lose Zenyatta is a great mare. I just don't think she will be able to run much faster early and have the same effective kick and that is what she will have to do in here. I like Blame, Fly Down and Lookin at Lucky. Blame ran like he needed his last and by most accounts has been training well. His trainer has won with his first 4 starters at the meet, which means the barn is feeling good and that is often contagious. Fly Down ran well last time behind a strong frint running performance and should get plenty of pace to run at. Zito has had an unlucky year, this might be a bright spot. Lookin At Lucky made a fan out of me with his performance in the Haskell and I think his last was a decent prep. Gets first run and is going to be tough.
Bets
2nd-
$50 win 2
$10 exacta 2-9
4th-
.50 pick 4
3,6,7,11/ 2,3,4,9/ 2,5,9,11/ 2
$15 win 7,11
$1 exacta box 3,6,7,8,11
5th-
$1 pick 3
2,3,4,9/ 2,5,9,11/ 2
$1 exacta box 2,3,4,9,12
$40 win 9
6th-
$1 pick 3
2,5,9,11/ 2/ 3,6,10
$10 double
2,5,9,11/ 2
$30 win 2
8th-
.50 pick 4
3,6,10/ 5,7,9,12/ 5,6,7,8/ 5,6,12
$60 win 3
$20 exacta 6,10/ 3
9th-
.50 pick 3
5,7,9,12/ 5,6,7,8/ 5,6,12
$5 double
5,7,9,12/ 8
$20 win 9
$1 exacta ALL/9
10th-
$5 double
5,7,8/ 5,6,12
$5 exacta box 5,7,8
$50 win 8
11th-
$5 exacta box 5,6,12
$75 win 5
.10 super
5,6,12/ 5,6,7,12/ 3,4,5,6,7,9,12/ 3,4,5,6,7,9,12
2nd- That was some effort by Nicole H last time. I probably would have picked her had she drawn into the F&M Sprint, so of course I like her here. Dirt is obviously her game and I think she wins and wins big here. Will be using Happy Week underneath. She can run from off the pace, which will be a good thing here with the presence of a decent amount of speed and I think she gets up for second.
4th- Looks like there is a potential for a quick pace here with Typhoon Slew and Madman Diaries. I like both of Michale Stidham's horses in here. Willcox Inn is bred strongly for the grass underneath, as her dam is a half to a couple of millionaires, Cetewayo and Dynaforce. He was a good looking winner first out against a return winner and finished up well last time. Might be able to pick them up late. His uncoupled stablemate could not have been more impressive breaking his maiden first out on the grass against a couple of next out winners. He won like a good thing and it made sense to try him on some synth stakes. He tried the overland route last out and might have moved a bit early. I think he is very dangerous getting back on grass and for good measure, Rosie has won with 15 of 44 mounts for Stidham. I'm betting them both to win and using them in multi's with Utley and Matoba.
5th- I don't see how this race doesn't fall apart. So many need the lead types and I think something has to give. I like Supreme Summit. Gets Gomez who has won on him before. Should be coming best of all late and Puype is 25% synth to dirt. Wise Dan could be any kind and if he can avoid a regression, can win. Hamazing Destiny is probably outclassed here. But, he's run his best races at Churchill, including a narrow loss vs eventual Forego winner Here Comes Ben 3 back. Gets a giant jock switch and could surprise at a giant price. Also using Girolamo in multi's.
6th- I like Central City in here, although I'm not crazy about him being inside. He still ran big last time off the layoff and if he breaks will be in a good spot. Silver Timber should be coming best of all and his rabbit will be making his job easier. Rose Catherine has done nothing wrong and she's one of my favorite horses in training. Might be able to work out a nice trip from the second flight. Grand Aventure had to wait a bit last time and it cost him. Should also be coming well late.
7th- Not crazy about the layoff, but I think Boys in Tosconova is best.
8th- I think the decision to go to the mile is the right one and I think Gio Ponti is going to reward his connections with a win. I know some thought his Shadwell was blah, but I thought Dominguez had him well in hand. He's most effective at a mile and the long stretch at Churchill should only help. What can you say about Goldikova other than she's great. Will be a deserving favorite and might actually be better this year than the last two. Paco Boy gets another chance to turn the tables on Goldikova.
9th- Hurricane Ike for me in here. 3rd off the layoff, two turns to one ran a big race in the Derby Trial over this track and should be able to work out a good spot right off of the lead. Here Comes Ben hasn't done anything wrong this year. Was super impressive getting up last time and will be very tough in here. Theskyhasnolimit moved a but early last time and fought hard down the lane against one of the favorites in the Classic. Also cutting back and returning to a track he's had a lot of success on. Vineyard Haven seemed to dislike running inside last time and he did at Laurel last year also. Draws outside and his best wins this. The question is what does he have left?
10th- I don't really like Workforce in here, but I will include him in pick 4's. I'm betting Dangerous Midge. Blinkers and lasix go on. He romped last time against a horse who won a group 1 next out and should the best price of the Euros. Behkabad had a tough go last time and is a must use. Also using Al Khali who does always seem to find trouble but he's been very good lately.
11th- Win or lose Zenyatta is a great mare. I just don't think she will be able to run much faster early and have the same effective kick and that is what she will have to do in here. I like Blame, Fly Down and Lookin at Lucky. Blame ran like he needed his last and by most accounts has been training well. His trainer has won with his first 4 starters at the meet, which means the barn is feeling good and that is often contagious. Fly Down ran well last time behind a strong frint running performance and should get plenty of pace to run at. Zito has had an unlucky year, this might be a bright spot. Lookin At Lucky made a fan out of me with his performance in the Haskell and I think his last was a decent prep. Gets first run and is going to be tough.
Bets
2nd-
$50 win 2
$10 exacta 2-9
4th-
.50 pick 4
3,6,7,11/ 2,3,4,9/ 2,5,9,11/ 2
$15 win 7,11
$1 exacta box 3,6,7,8,11
5th-
$1 pick 3
2,3,4,9/ 2,5,9,11/ 2
$1 exacta box 2,3,4,9,12
$40 win 9
6th-
$1 pick 3
2,5,9,11/ 2/ 3,6,10
$10 double
2,5,9,11/ 2
$30 win 2
8th-
.50 pick 4
3,6,10/ 5,7,9,12/ 5,6,7,8/ 5,6,12
$60 win 3
$20 exacta 6,10/ 3
9th-
.50 pick 3
5,7,9,12/ 5,6,7,8/ 5,6,12
$5 double
5,7,9,12/ 8
$20 win 9
$1 exacta ALL/9
10th-
$5 double
5,7,8/ 5,6,12
$5 exacta box 5,7,8
$50 win 8
11th-
$5 exacta box 5,6,12
$75 win 5
.10 super
5,6,12/ 5,6,7,12/ 3,4,5,6,7,9,12/ 3,4,5,6,7,9,12