Breeders Cup A B X, Saturday only [Archive]

RockHardTen1985

11-01-2010, 03:08 PM

Based on how Im going to bet, horses I am standing against will be X's.
Juvy Turf-

Air Support- B
Banned-X
Biondetti-A
Deciphering Dreams-X
Dux Scholar-A
Humble And Hungry-X
Madam Diaries-X
Major Gain-X
Mantoba-B
Master of Hounds-A
Pluck-X
Premier Pegasus-X
Rouge Romance-X
Rough Sailing-X
Silver Medallion-X
Soldat-B
Typhoon Slew-X
Utley-B
Wilcox Inn-X

Dirt Mile-

Aikenite-X
Awesome Gem-X
Cool Coal Man-X
Crown Of Thorns-B
Dakota Phone-X
Gayego-B/X
Here Comes Ben-B/X
Hurricane Ike-B/X
Mad Flatter-X
Mine That Bird-X
Tizway-A
Vineyard Haven-A/B

Turf Sprint-

Bridgetown-X
California Flag-B/X
Canadian Ballet-X
Central City-X
Chamberlin Bridge-B
Due Date-B/X
Grand Adventure-B/X
Kinsale King-X
Quick Enough-X
Ravalo-X
Rose Catherine-A
Silver Timber-A
Stradivinsky-X
Tropic Storm, Waveline, Yield Bogey- X X X

Juvy

Biondetti-B/A
B@T-X
Jaycito-X
J.B's Thunder-X
J.P's Gusto-X
Madam Diaraies-X
Murjan-X
RR and RR- X X
Stay Thirsty-B
Uncle Moe-A

Mile-

Beethoven-X
Court Vision-X
Delagator-X/B
Get Stormy-X :(
Gio Ponti-X
Goldikova-A BLAH
Pace Boy-X
Proviso-B/A
Sidneys Candy- B/A
The Usual Q T-X

Sprint-

Atta Boy Roy-X
Big Drama-B/X
Cash Refund-X
Giralomo-A
Hamazing Dynasty-B
Kingsale King-X
Passhitto The Cha-X
Riley Tucker-X
Smiling Tiger X/B
Supreme Summit-X
Warriors Reward-A
Wise Dan-B

Might just stand alone with Giralomo and the Warrior and hope... They will be the favorites, but neither should be that heavy.

Turf-

Al Khali-B
Behkabad-B
Workforce-A
EVERYONE ELSE-X

Classic-

Zenyatta-A
Quality Road-A

EVERYONE ELSE-X

Indian Charlie

11-01-2010, 04:09 PM

This might be the most valuable post in Internet history.

Coach Pants

11-01-2010, 04:11 PM

Everything I Say Is Impotent

RockHardTen1985

11-01-2010, 04:14 PM

This might be the most valuable post in Internet history.

If someone wants to take the time to post every horse for Friday, Ill give my ranks on them.

Cannon Shell

11-01-2010, 05:07 PM

You shouldn't give this info out

cakes44

11-01-2010, 05:28 PM

Gutsiest move I ever saw Mav.

hoovesupsideyourhead

11-01-2010, 05:29 PM

Gutsiest move I ever saw Mav.

:tro::tro::tro:

alysheba4

11-01-2010, 05:31 PM

:Gutsiest move I ever saw Mav.:$:

Bigsmc

11-01-2010, 06:14 PM

Gutsiest move I ever saw Mav.

He's too young to know what this is Hollywood.

The plaque for the alternates is down in the ladies room.

-BT-

11-01-2010, 06:42 PM

Gutsiest move I ever saw Mav.

post of the year... pure comedy right there

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pc2k_WGm3U&feature=related

-bt-

RockHardTen1985

11-01-2010, 06:44 PM

He's too young to know what this is Hollywood.

The plaque for the alternates is down in the ladies room.

I am lost...

Fulla Sheets

11-01-2010, 06:46 PM

I am lost...

Come on even I get it.
:D:$::tro:

RockHardTen1985

11-01-2010, 06:49 PM

Come on even I get it.
:D:$::tro:

Mav? Home Alone?

tjfla

11-01-2010, 07:12 PM

THe DRF print edition is only 7 bucks. Maybe u should buy it

RockHardTen1985

11-01-2010, 07:13 PM

THe DRF print edition is only 7 bucks. Maybe u should buy it

I have the formulator both days, I printed and made copies 30 seconds after it was out... Before they started charging.

tjfla

11-01-2010, 07:14 PM

I have the formulator both days, I printed and made copies 30 seconds after it was out... Before they started charging.

Gotcha wasnt sure? I thought u were just picking names out a hat LOL

Indian Charlie

11-01-2010, 07:38 PM

post of the year... pure comedy right there

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6pc2k_WGm3U&feature=related

-bt-

Did you read the quotes??????? Pablo was pretty funny.

Dahoss

11-01-2010, 08:06 PM

I have the formulator both days, I printed and made copies 30 seconds after it was out... Before they started charging.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BmjHT5GpAYQ

Scav

11-02-2010, 09:46 AM

X'ing Dutrow's horse in the Juv is ballsy I think. Generally, IMO, good horses stretching out run their best race the first time they do it.

RockHardTen1985

11-02-2010, 10:05 AM

X'ing Dutrow's horse in the Juv is ballsy I think. Generally, IMO, good horses stretching out run their best race the first time they do it.

He is talented, but at 2-1 or 5-2 he can beat me, and Ill keep it moving if he does. Im not gonna try to crush 50$ pick 3's to Moe. If I put myself in position w/ a price and something decent to Moe and huge to my 2 b's Ill be happy pre race.

Scav

11-02-2010, 10:14 AM

He is talented, but at 2-1 or 5-2 he can beat me, and Ill keep it moving if he does. Im not gonna try to crush 50$ pick 3's to Moe. If I put myself in position w/ a price and something decent to Moe and huge to my 2 b's Ill be happy pre race.

Isn't the goal to be happy post race?

hockey2315

11-02-2010, 10:18 AM

RockHardTen1985

11-02-2010, 10:40 AM

I don't agree w/ your tossing of B@T, but I agree with your general line of thinking here. . .

If I think Uncle Moe is much better, why would I use both when the prices might be similar? I think Stay Thirsty has a shot, a lot of other dont. He will be 10-1 or close to it. Id rather use him. He stumbled, was gunned ot the top and ran OK vs B@T who pulled a dream trip.

RockHardTen1985

11-02-2010, 10:41 AM

Isn't the goal to be happy post race?

If you hit 1,2 of these pick 3's your getting paid. Especially if your going to bet the way Im going to.

hockey2315

11-02-2010, 10:43 AM

If I think Uncle Moe is much better, why would I use both when the prices might be similar? I think Stay Thirsty has a shot, a lot of other dont. He will be 10-1 or close to it. Id rather use him. He stumbled, was gunned ot the top and ran OK vs B@T who pulled a dream trip.

Stay Thirsty is slow.

Jaycito was given a terrible ride last time and still won impressively. He's very dangerous.

RockHardTen1985

11-02-2010, 10:44 AM

Stay Thirsty is slow.

Jaycito was given a terrible ride last time and still won impressively. He's very dangerous.

I guess, but I think he is slow. Stay Thirsty cant improve? Is it that plain and simple?

hockey2315

11-02-2010, 10:50 AM

I guess, but I think he is slow. Stay Thirsty cant improve? Is it that plain and simple?

Any 2yo can improve, but has he improved at all in the first three starts? He's run close to the same race each time, and that race isn't good enough.

ateamstupid

11-02-2010, 10:58 AM

Isn't the goal to be happy post race?

:tro: unless you're Randall and don't have to worry about that. He's always happy.

Tossing Boys at Tosconova and Jaycito in favor of Stay Thirsty is lunacy.

RockHardTen1985

11-02-2010, 11:00 AM

:tro: unless you're Randall and don't have to worry about that. He's always happy.

Tossing Boys at Tosconova and Jaycito in favor of Stay Thirsty is lunacy.

Thats about the same opinion as everyone else.

ateamstupid

11-02-2010, 11:01 AM

Thats about the same opinion as everyone else.

OK, Copernicus, there's a reason for that.

hockey2315

11-02-2010, 11:04 AM

Thats about the same opinion as everyone else.

Like I said, I disagree with you in this specific case, but I love what you're saying. You may be turning a corner.

ateamstupid

11-02-2010, 11:05 AM

Like I said, I disagree with you in this specific case, but I love what you're saying. You may be turning a corner.

He'll turn the other three within the hour.

RockHardTen1985

11-02-2010, 11:08 AM

OK, Copernicus, there's a reason for that.

I appreciate this, finally the respect I deserve.

lemoncrush

11-02-2010, 11:18 AM

I appreciate this, finally the respect I deserve.

Haha.... I think Mo has an excellent chance, but you're love of Stay Thirsty and your disdain for Boys of Tosconova has nothing to do with the distance, pace scenerio or any other legitimate race dynamics of the BC Juvy, which is my problem with your opinion.

It's all based on you being a "superfan" of Stay Thirsty and thinking he's going to develop into a superhorse. And, that you wanted to beat BOT in the Hopeful, and lost. So now you want to try to beat him again, and get your money back.

That's not a smart way to handicap and bet in my opinion, but good luck.

RockHardTen1985

11-02-2010, 11:20 AM

Haha.... I think Mo has an excellent chance, but you're love of Stay Thirsty and your disdain for Boys of Tosconova has nothing to do with the distance, pace scenerio or any other legitimate race dynamics of the BC Juvy, which is my problem with your opinion.

It's all based on you being a "superfan" of Stay Thirsty and thinking he's going to develop into a superhorse. And, that you wanted to beat BOT in the Hopeful, and lost. So now you want to try to beat him again, and get your money back.

That's not a smart way to handicap and bet in my opinion, but good luck.

I think UM is far and away the most likely winner. B@T had a dream trip last out, it has nothing to do with my love for Stay Thirsty. I feel he ran good enough, and yes I do think he should improve.

NTamm1215

11-02-2010, 11:23 AM

I think UM is far and away the most likely winner. B@T had a dream trip last out, it has nothing to do with my love for Stay Thirsty. I feel he ran good enough, and yes I do think he should improve.

What circumstances are going to lead to a Stay Thirsty victory?

Is he going to go to the front, get the lead and stay? Doubtful with JP's Gusto and his own stablemate in the field.

Is he going to rate and finish? He had dead aim in his debut and didn't pass the eventual winner. Wishcasting that he is suddenly going to be able to rate is a horrible idea.

The respective trips of Stay Thirsty and Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful are not enough to bridge the gap between the two. Boys at Tosconova is a much better horse right now and I don't see how you could use Stay Thirsty over him.

RockHardTen1985

11-02-2010, 11:25 AM

What circumstances are going to lead to a Stay Thirsty victory?

Is he going to go to the front, get the lead and stay? Doubtful with JP's Gusto and his own stablemate in the field.

Is he going to rate and finish? He had dead aim in his debut and didn't pass the eventual winner. Wishcasting that he is suddenly going to be able to rate is a horrible idea.

The respective trips of Stay Thirsty and Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful are not enough to bridge the gap between the two. Boys at Tosconova is a much better horse right now and I don't see how you could use Stay Thirsty over him.

Rate. THe horse he could not pass in his debut is a freak, who was cranked up.

ateamstupid

11-02-2010, 11:37 AM

My only slight concern with Boys at Tosconova is his ability to go two turns. Officer is a strict sprint influence, but there appears to be distance on the damside and he was super professional in the 7-furlong Hopeful off of just two 5-furlong races.

parsixfarms

11-02-2010, 11:37 AM

The respective trips of Stay Thirsty and Boys at Tosconova in the Hopeful are not enough to bridge the gap between the two. Boys at Tosconova is a much better horse right now and I don't see how you could use Stay Thirsty over him.

I'll preface this comment by saying that I'm not enamored with Stay Thirsty in this spot. I thought the Iroquios/KY Jockey Club route would have been perfect for him.

However, if one were forced to make a case for him vis-a-vis Boys at Tosconova, in a race likely to feature a legit pace, Stay Thirsty's conformation and pedigree might provide a basis to think he could turn the tables in a two-turn 8.5F race where BAT has not run in nearly ten weeks. I can't imagine that Stay Thirsty will be up on the pace with his more celebrated stablemate (Uncle Mo) already there, and he's actually one of the few horses in the race that has a "classic"-type pedigree.

parsixfarms

11-02-2010, 11:41 AM

NTamm1215

11-02-2010, 11:44 AM

I'll preface this comment by saying that I'm not enamored with Stay Thirsty in this spot. I thought the Iroquios/KY Jockey Club route would have been perfect for him.

However, if one were forced to make a case for him vis-a-vis Boys at Tosconova, in a race likely to feature a legit pace, Stay Thirsty's conformation and pedigree might provide a basis to think he could turn the tables in a two-turn 8.5F race where BAT has not run in nearly ten weeks. I can't imagine that Stay Thirsty will be up on the pace with his more celebrated stablemate (Uncle Mo) already there, and he's actually one of the few horses in the race that has a "classic"-type pedigree.

Stay Thirsty being kin to two slowpokes doesn't exactly make me think he's going to be a superstar going two turns.

The problem with your first sentence is that Stay Thirsty is coming off the same layoff. The biggest issue I have is that betting horses who you plan to do something that they haven't done before and really have shown no willingness to do is a terrible idea. Planning for Stay Thirsty rating and being effective is a dangerous exercise, and one for which I'd want more than 10-1.

parsixfarms

11-02-2010, 11:53 AM

Stay Thirsty being kin to two slowpokes doesn't exactly make me think he's going to be a superstar going two turns.

The problem with your first sentence is that Stay Thirsty is coming off the same layoff. The biggest issue I have is that betting horses who you plan to do something that they haven't done before and really have shown no willingness to do is a terrible idea. Planning for Stay Thirsty rating and being effective is a dangerous exercise, and one for which I'd want more than 10-1.

I prefer Boys at Tosconova of the two on Saturday, and I'd probably only rate him the third most likely winner of the race. I was simply making a case for why Stay Thirsty could turn the tables on Saturday. It wouldn't be the first time that the stretchout from 7F to 8.5F led to a change in result.

Not that they were worldbeaters, but aside from Biondetti's female family, Superfly and Andromeda's Hero are probably the most talented horses in the immediate families of any of the other Juvenile starters.

ateamstupid

11-02-2010, 12:19 PM

While his dam won the majority of her $$ going long, there's not a lot of distance in that female family.

Little Bonnet was a pretty nice horse going long, which is significant to me even if the 2nd and 3rd family's distance isn't there.

blackthroatedwind

11-02-2010, 12:23 PM

I prefer Boys at Tosconova of the two on Saturday, and I'd probably only rate him the third most likely winner of the race. I was simply making a case for why Stay Thirsty could turn the tables on Saturday. It wouldn't be the first time that the stretchout from 7F to 8.5F led to a change in result.

Not that they were worldbeaters, but aside from Biondetti's female family, Superfly and Andromeda's Hero are probably the most talented horses in the immediate families of any of the other Juvenile starters.

With all due respect, evoking the name Andromeda's Hero to defend ANY horse means that horse must have less than no merits.

jms62

11-02-2010, 12:59 PM

Uncle Mo 7/5... Good luck with that

parsixfarms

11-02-2010, 01:50 PM

With all due respect, evoking the name Andromeda's Hero to defend ANY horse means that horse must have less than no merits.

That he's the most accomplished horse in the immediate family of any member of the field in this year's BC Juvenile suggests that the Derby winner is not coming from this field.

The Indomitable DrugS

11-02-2010, 01:58 PM

That he's the most accomplished horse in the immediate family of any member of the field in this year's BC Juvenile suggests that the Derby winner is not coming from this field.

Super Saver did have the extremely accomplished Hedge Fun as a full sibling - which is probably why he won the Derby... but where were the accomplished immediate family members in Mine That Bird's pedigree?

parsixfarms

11-02-2010, 02:09 PM

Super Saver did have the extremely accomplished Hedge Fun as a full sibling - which is probably why he won the Derby...

Super Saver also had the fairly accomplished Girolamo, Daydreaming, Accelerator and Bluegrass Cat in his deep Phipps-family pedigree.

The Indomitable DrugS

11-02-2010, 02:21 PM

I know. I think you're really overstating the importance of that. A lot of Derby winners like Big Brown, Mine That Bird etc have unimpressive female families.

blackthroatedwind

11-02-2010, 02:30 PM

That he's the most accomplished horse in the immediate family of any member of the field in this year's BC Juvenile suggests that the Derby winner is not coming from this field.

I think it's irrelevent.

randallscott35

11-02-2010, 02:37 PM

Strangely enough they don't know who their siblings are.

parsixfarms

11-02-2010, 02:53 PM

I know. I think you're really overstating the importance of that. A lot of Derby winners like Big Brown, Mine That Bird etc have unimpressive female families.

You are probably right that, given commercial breeding trends, pedigree has been less of a factor in the Derby in recent years than it was historically.

What struck me about this year's Juvenile field was how light the pedigrees were, especially compared to the two juvenile turf races this year, where the fields are rather deep from a pedigree prespective.