Least & Most Vulnerable Favorites?

[Sightseek]

While I know some smart ass is going to comment that the fields haven't been officially posted yet (and we haven't even discussed the weather :eek: ), but I am sure we are all busy handicapping when we should be out Trick or Treating...which favorites in the Breeder's Cup do you see as being the least and most vulnerable?

(I fear this will become another Z thread :( )

[ateamstupid]

Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta
Rightly So
Tell a Kelly
Uncle Mo
Workforce
Girolamo

I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak.

[randallscott35]

Faves I don't like.

-Winter Memories
-Uncle Mo
-Blind Luck
-Big Drama and Giarlomo
-Zenyatta.

The others don't say avoid or the faves will be near 5-1.

[GPK]

Faves I don't like.

-Winter Memories
-Uncle Mo
-Blind Luck
-Big Drama and Giarlomo
-Zenyatta.

The others don't say avoid or the faves will be near 5-1.

Rand, why don't you like Winter Memories?

[Scav]

Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta
Rightly So
Tell a Kelly
Uncle Mo
Workforce
Girolamo

I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak.

While I am probably using Giant Oak, his exercise rider was helping us out this summer and he told us he is the biggest hanger. Said that he just drops the bit when he gets towards the lead and while he has talent, just wont' pass horses.

[randallscott35]

Rand, why don't you like Winter Memories?

Very tough to take a filly at a short price in this race when you don't know what to make of the Euros. Her last was really really big as well. Yes she gets 4 weeks from it but the number power of Interactif last year should show that stringing enormous turf efforts back to back for 2 year olds is difficult IMO. Thus I wouldn't say she can't get a piece but the risk reward will leave her off Pick 4s and doubles for me.

[ateamstupid]

I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.

[randallscott35]

I think Midday is going to lose and she'll be 4-5.

[randallscott35]

I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.

That's what makes horse racing great. It won't bother me in the slightest.

[GPK]

Very tough to take a filly at a short price in this race when you don't know what to make of the Euros. Her last was really really big as well. Yes she gets 4 weeks from it but the number power of Interactif last year should show that stringing enormous turf efforts back to back for 2 year olds is difficult IMO. Thus I wouldn't say she can't get a piece but the risk reward will leave her off Pick 4s and doubles for me.

Fair enough. I think she can move forward, but that's just my opinion. If she turns out half as good as her dam, she will be pretty good.

[ateamstupid]

That's what makes horse racing great. It won't bother me in the slightest.

Really? If you have $40 winners in the other three legs and miss a Pick 4 because you left off a completely logical $6 horse, that won't irk you at all? I find that pretty hard to believe.

[pweizer]

While I am probably using Giant Oak, his exercise rider was helping us out this summer and he told us he is the biggest hanger. Said that he just drops the bit when he gets towards the lead and while he has talent, just wont' pass horses.

I can't believe Giant Oak will go favored. However, if so, he has to be the most vulnerable favorite of all times. When is the last time he won a race? Seriously, I can't find it on the page. It must have been two years ago.

This says a lot about Giant Oak but even more about the silliness of the marathon as a division.

Paul

[randallscott35]

Really? If you have $40 winners in the other three legs and miss a Pick 4 because you left off a completely logical $6 horse, that won't irk you at all? I find that pretty hard to believe.

Believe it. I don't structure bets the same way many do.

[randallscott35]

I can't believe Giant Oak will go favored. However, if so, he has to be the most vulnerable favorite of all times. When is the last time he won a race? Seriously, I can't find it on the page. It must have been two years ago.

This says a lot about Giant Oak but even more about the silliness of the marathon as a division.

Paul

Offshore he is favored. I can't understand why but then I can't understand the idea of a dirt marathon race anyway. I don't think I'm betting this race at all.

[ateamstupid]

Believe it. I don't structure bets the same way many do.

You're so mysterious. Pretty sure you're lying. You'd be looking for a ledge. How many times does one have three $40 winners in one Pick 4? A handful per lifetime? And throwing that away by excluding a $6 horse would eat you alive just like it would anyone else.

[randallscott35]

You're so mysterious. Pretty sure you're lying. You'd be looking for a ledge. How many times does one have three $40 winners in one Pick 4? A handful per lifetime? And throwing that away by excluding a $6 horse would eat you alive just like it would anyone else.

40, try 70 or 90 dollar winners. It happens. No ledges. One thing I'm really good at is turning the page...No joke, its the truth.

[ateamstupid]

40, try 70 or 90 dollar winners. It happens. No ledges. One thing I'm really good at is turning the page...No joke, its the truth.

Sure. You're just so awesome that you'll find five $100 winners in a row the next day. I get it.

[randallscott35]

Sure. You're just so awesome that you'll find five $100 winners in a row the next day. I get it.

Why the animosity? I don't play that many multirace wagers. When I do, they are usually oddly put together. It's what works for me. To each his own.

[pweizer]

Offshore he is favored. I can't understand why but then I can't understand the idea of a dirt marathon race anyway. I don't think I'm betting this race at all.

I hope he goes favored. I am not sure I will be this race either but at first glance, Awesome Gem looks interesting to me. While no win machine himself, he has won graded stakes races and he has faced much better consistently than will line up for the marathon.

Paul

[randallscott35]

I hope he goes favored. I am not sure I will be this race either but at first glance, Awesome Gem looks interesting to me. While no win machine himself, he has won graded stakes races and he has faced much better consistently than will line up for the marathon.

Paul

True about him but he settles for pieces far too often...I'm just passing it.

[RockHardTen1985]

Most Vulnerable
Zenyatta
Rightly So
Tell a Kelly
Uncle Mo
Workforce
Girolamo

I think just about every favorite is vulnerable. If I had to pick three that are least likely to lose, it'd probably be Winter Memories, Midday and either Goldikova or Giant Oak.

I dont like Giant Oak at all.....
Rightly So I agree, but Im not sure she will be favorite.
Tell a Kelly totally agree, but is she going to be favorite over GOAT and Euro?
Uncle Mo looks tough.
Workforce looks really tough.
Girolamo looks strong to me also.

[RockHardTen1985]

I can't possibly fathom someone leaving Winter Memories out of a Pick 4 completely. She's easily the most likely winner IMO, and even if you don't think so, if you get 3/4 because you left out a $6 horse, you really should be smacked.

Im not sure of my pick 4 strategy yet, but I might be tossing her in pick 3's and trying to press the Euros... Who simply might be better.

[ateamstupid]

Im not sure of my pick 4 strategy yet, but I might be tossing her in pick 3's and trying to press the Euros... Who simply might be better.

Which euros 'might' be better and why?

[RockHardTen1985]

I think Midday is going to lose and she'll be 4-5.

I dont think she will be 4-5. She wont fall under 1-1.

[RockHardTen1985]

Which euros 'might' be better and why?

Food Plain,Together and Theyskens Theory.

[ateamstupid]

I dont like Giant Oak at all.....
Rightly So I agree, but Im not sure she will be favorite.
Tell a Kelly totally agree, but is she going to be favorite over GOAT and Euro?
Uncle Mo looks tough.
Workforce looks really tough.
Girolamo looks strong to me also.

Uncle Mo doesn't do it for me. Obviously very talented, but he's yet to show he can rate and it's tough to take that kind of price on a horse with two starts against a lot of speed. Workforce, likewise, has raced five times since debuting last September, won one of the weaker Arcs I can remember, now has to turn around relatively quickly and ship across the pond. Not for me. I'll use defensively, but I'll try to beat him with Behkabad and to a lesser extent Debussy and Winchester.

[ateamstupid]

Food Plain,Together and Theyskens Theory.

Theyskens' Theory is running in the JF, Flood Plain is nothing special and did you watch Together's Tattersalls race? Not the kind of performance I want to take a short price after. Tale Untold's the only Euro that interests me, but Winter Memories wins rather easily in my mind.

[RockHardTen1985]

Theyskens' Theory is running in the JF, Flood Plain is nothing special and did you watch Together's Tattersalls race? Not the kind of performance I want to take a short price after. Tale Untold's the only Euro that interests me, but Winter Memories wins rather easily in my mind.


Maybe Im reaching? Im just not thrilled at taking even money on a 2yr old american grass filly. Tale Untold is the one I dont like.

I know we are not supposed to use turf beyers, but dident Allure D' Amour run almost the same race as Winter Memories?

[ateamstupid]

Maybe Im reaching? Im just not thrilled at taking even money on a 2yr old american grass filly. Tale Untold is the one I dont like.

I know we are not supposed to use turf beyers, but dident Allure D' Amour run almost the same race as Winter Memories?

She won't be anywhere near even money, and she's scary good. I think it's more likely More Than Real beats her than Together or Flood Plain.

[Indian Charlie]

Uncle Mo doesn't do it for me. Obviously very talented, but he's yet to show he can rate and it's tough to take that kind of price on a horse with two starts against a lot of speed. Workforce, likewise, has raced five times since debuting last September, won one of the weaker Arcs I can remember, now has to turn around relatively quickly and ship across the pond. Not for me. I'll use defensively, but I'll try to beat him with Behkabad and to a lesser extent Debussy and Winchester.

Uncle Mo has shown perfectly well that he can rate. He rated very easily on the lead in both starts. Especially last time, he had that other horse trying for the lead, but he was very well within himself, then drew off.

[JerseyJ]

If Giralamo goes off favored I think he is the most vulnerable favorite on the card on Saturday. I think I can make a case for pretty much anyone in the Sprint other than Pashito the Che and Wise Dan. I think whomever wins that race is going to have to have a bit of a rating gear and I am going to bet a little on Hamazing Destiny who has been pretty damn good when running over a fast strip at 6F with a reasonable break. If he can get that and run his "A" race he should be right there off his 107 figure at CD at 6F.

As for least vulnerable favorite on Saturday I don't really see any way that Workforce loses as long as he shows up with his normal races, except for the dud he threw in the King George, his Epsom Derby and Arc are just way too good, and in a P4 situation he is a stand horse for me. Goldikova is a close second but not first because although Paco Boy has never beaten her, he's been closer to her than the others have been to Workforce.

As for horse who I think is the most likeliest winner on Saturday I would say it's Grand Adventure, who I think crushes if he runs back to his Nearctic or Connaught Cup. I think Frostad has found what he wants to do and that's sprint on the grass, he can run any way you ask him to and yeah he lost to Silver Timber last year but this year's Silver Timber has lost a step while this year's Grand Adventure has clearly improved big time.

On Friday, I think the most vulnerable favorite is Winter Memories if she goes off at the odds most expect. In fact I think the Juvenile Fillies turf may the be the most open race on the entire card on Friday, and think it's a scramble with Allure D'Amour, Fancy Point, Flood Plain, Kathmanblu, More Than Real, New Normal, Quiet Oasis, Tale Untold, and Together all having races that are as good as Winter Memories. I have to say I like New Normal's progression and think her last was very, very good.

I think the least vulnerable Friday favorite is Midday who's best race is probably too good for all in here, including Red Desire, and North America's best hope, which to me is Miss Keller who I will be using in both slots underneath Midday with various others. I just think if Midday shows up with her best, it's going to be awfully tough to beat her. To me Plumania is just ok, and our F&M Turf horses are just not very good to be quite frank.

I think the most likeliest winner on Friday is obviously Midday but the decent priced horse who I think has the best upset chance on Friday is Secret Gypsy who fired a big shot the last time she went 7F at Churchill Downs and is in very good form coming in, and should sit a really nice trip in here off Rightly So and can power home in the stretch and make them come get her in a wide open renewal of the Filly and Mare Sprint.

[ateamstupid]

Uncle Mo has shown perfectly well that he can rate. He rated very easily on the lead in both starts. Especially last time, he had that other horse trying for the lead, but he was very well within himself, then drew off.

Rate behind horses. It's foolish to assume they can do it, especially when they're so lightly raced. I disagree that he rated so well by the way in the Champagne. He could've easily let I'm Steppin' it Up go on with it, but he didn't want to. If he goes :22 and :45 in the Juvy, he'll get dusted in the stretch.

[Indian Charlie]

Rate behind horses. It's foolish to assume they can do it, especially when they're so lightly raced. I disagree that he rated so well by the way in the Champagne. He could've easily let I'm Steppin' it Up go on with it, but he didn't want to. If he goes :22 and :45 in the Juvy, he'll get dusted in the stretch.

He looked pretty relaxed though, which is a good indicator that he'll be able to rate, if needed.

[ateamstupid]

He looked pretty relaxed though, which is a good indicator that he'll be able to rate, if needed.

He appears to have a high cruising speed, and I have to look at the pace in the Juvy more closely, I'm just saying if he's under the gun from the start because he wants to go, it won't be Mountain Town trying to reel him in. He's got a boatload of talent, but at 6-5 or so, I think he's poor value.

[keithting]

Most vulnerable - Goldikova

Least vulnerable - Blind Luck

[Indian Charlie]

He appears to have a high cruising speed, and I have to look at the pace in the Juvy more closely, I'm just saying if he's under the gun from the start because he wants to go, it won't be Mountain Town trying to reel him in. He's got a boatload of talent, but at 6-5 or so, I think he's poor value.

No doubt the value won't be there. That race looks pretty hard to play.

The Peruvian horse is interesting though. I read somewhere that he beat three year olds in his last start, which is pretty unusual!

[lemoncrush]

Maybe Im reaching? Im just not thrilled at taking even money on a 2yr old american grass filly. Tale Untold is the one I dont like.

I know we are not supposed to use turf beyers, but dident Allure D' Amour run almost the same race as Winter Memories?

I'm sure everyone saw the Miss Grillo. Winter Memories was running second to last in the 1-1/16 race, when they were went an ordinary 49 and change for the half. She had to go 6 or 7 wide and still effortlessly won.
She doesn't even have to move up off of that performance to win next Friday, if you ask me. She already proved she doesn't need a perfect trip to win.

[Clip-Clop]

Least-
Uncle Mo
Blind Luck
Most-
Zenyatta (way past vulnerable)
Goldi (still the likely winner, just a tough looking race)

[hockey2315]

I know we are not supposed to use turf beyers, but dident Allure D' Amour run almost the same race as Winter Memories?

I want to believe you know better than this.

[richard]

I'm comfortable with Quality Road as a solid fav .

[declansharbor]

I'm comfortable with Quality Road as a solid fav .


Cue the tomatoes.

[Dahoss]

I'm comfortable with Golden Missile behind me .

FTFY

[RockHardTen1985]

I want to believe you know better than this.

Dont, BRO.

[NTamm1215]

Winter Memories is going to be overbet off of a race that really might not be much, if at all better than Kathmanblu's Jessamine or the Natalma.

[declansharbor]

Off topic...

Does anyone possess a link where I could find out what the best wagers of past year's BC's have been? (i.e. - rolling p3's, DD's, ex, tri's . . .)

Any help would be greatly appreciated. thank you in advance.

[Indian Charlie]

Off topic...

Does anyone possess a link where I could find out what the best wagers of past year's BC's have been? (i.e. - rolling p3's, DD's, ex, tri's . . .)

Any help would be greatly appreciated. thank you in advance.

www.google.com

[declansharbor]

www.google.com

Zenyatta

[CharlieR]

Off topic...

Does anyone possess a link where I could find out what the best wagers of past year's BC's have been? (i.e. - rolling p3's, DD's, ex, tri's . . .)

Any help would be greatly appreciated. thank you in advance.

I have not downloaded a copy yet for this year, but the express bet wagering guide usually has some of the info you are looking for.

[PatCummings]

Off topic...

Does anyone possess a link where I could find out what the best wagers of past year's BC's have been? (i.e. - rolling p3's, DD's, ex, tri's . . .)

Any help would be greatly appreciated. thank you in advance.

Call me crazy, but isn't that like handicapping the fifth race with the fourth race past performances? Inconsequential.

[Travis Stone]

Call me crazy, but isn't that like handicapping the fifth race with the fourth race past performances? Inconsequential.

Looking over past payoffs in the BC is somewhat inconsequential because everything pays well, but getting your head wrapped around the insane value of various wagers is good for the mindset.

I have a binder with past BC charts and refer to it each year to remember things that worked, didn't etc. Plus, to remind myself at how valuable wagers like the P4 and Trifecta are.

[chucklestheclown]

Off topic...

Does anyone possess a link where I could find out what the best wagers of past year's BC's have been? (i.e. - rolling p3's, DD's, ex, tri's . . .)

Any help would be greatly appreciated. thank you in advance.

Here's a start:
http://www.brisnet.com/library/software/allnews/oct10brs.pdf

After you crack page 8 please give me a shout.

[knickslions2]

I'm comfortable with Quality Road as a solid fav .

LOL I hope he is the favorite. Means plenty of money to win

[santana]

LOL I hope he is the favorite. Means plenty of money to win



Wont Zenyatta be th chalk ?

[jwkniska]

most vulnerable... any fav that draws in the double digit starting holes.

[knickslions2]

Wont Zenyatta be th chalk ?

I would think.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Winter Memories is going to be overbet off of a race that really might not be much, if at all better than Kathmanblu's Jessamine or the Natalma.

Street Chimes disappointed mightily yesterday, and I would say moves the Natalma back a considerate amount in how it is viewed vs. some other preps. Also, that doesn't bode well for Pluck who ran a second slower than the girls did that day. That's just my opinion, of course.

[-BT-]

I hope he goes favored. I am not sure I will be this race either but at first glance, Awesome Gem looks interesting to me. While no win machine himself, he has won graded stakes races and he has faced much better consistently than will line up for the marathon.

Paul

i was thinking the same thing paul, i'm willing to toss the last 2 races if i can get a square price on this guy. Plus, as you mentioned, this is a step down from what he's been facing.

-bt-

[cakes44]

i was thinking the same thing paul, i'm willing to toss the last 2 races if i can get a square price on this guy. Plus, as you mentioned, this is a step down from what he's been facing.

-bt-

Agreed that he stands out on class, but this 1 3/4 miles thing is a whole different animal. I'd like him more if someone like Sheppard was his trainer.

[hockey2315]

Street Chimes disappointed mightily yesterday, and I would say moves the Natalma back a considerate amount in how it is viewed vs. some other preps. Also, that doesn't bode well for Pluck who ran a second slower than the girls did that day. That's just my opinion, of course.

Pluck's bad. I don't think New Normal can be downgraded by anything Street Chimes does because of the nature of her performance.

[hockey2315]

Winter Memories is going to be overbet off of a race that really might not be much, if at all better than Kathmanblu's Jessamine or the Natalma.

I'm not sure what races you were watching.

That being said, I'm betting the Reddam horse.

[NTamm1215]

Street Chimes disappointed mightily yesterday, and I would say moves the Natalma back a considerate amount in how it is viewed vs. some other preps. Also, that doesn't bode well for Pluck who ran a second slower than the girls did that day. That's just my opinion, of course.

Pluck is a disaster, if he wins, I lose triumphantly.

I'm not going to put too much into Street Chimes' 5th place finish yesterday since it seems like she wants to go a mile at most. She was also a little closer to the pace yesterday and it fell apart altogether. Perhaps I'm being too liberal with it, but I'll pay to find out. I thought that More Than Real and New Normal were the two best in the Natalma by more than the finishing margins and More Than Real is more likely to move forward in a race with a contested pace.

We'll see about it all but I'm not going to necessarily upgrade Winter Memories because Excited came back to run well or downgrade More Than Real because Street Chimes didn't.

[NTamm1215]

I'm not sure what races you were watching.

That being said, I'm betting the Reddam horse.

You have some chip on your shoulder.

[hockey2315]

You're right about that. . . but I do respect your opinion.

I just don't see how anyone can think Kathmanblu and Winter Memories are equals.

[NTamm1215]

You're right about that. . . but I do respect your opinion.

I just don't see how anyone can think Kathmanblu and Winter Memories are equals.

I didn't really say they were equals and certainly like Winter Memories' prospects for being a good 3YO quite a bit more. Too many good McPeek 2YOs have turned into duds.

Kathmanblu ran against the bias at Saratoga in a race where I thought she should legitimately have been 60-1. She finished well after a slightly troubled break. The Jessamine was not a particularly strong race but she completely collapsed the race off the turn with that move.

My point was that the odds separation between Winter Memories and Kathmanblu is probably going to be so vast because of Winter Memories' last race. In my opinion, it was not so vastly better than Kathmanblu's Jessamine, facilitating a price difference of 5/2 vs. 8 or 10-1.

[hockey2315]

My point was that the odds separation between Winter Memories and Kathmanblu is probably going to be so vast because of Winter Memories' last race. In my opinion, it was not so vastly better than Kathmanblu's Jessamine, facilitating a price difference of 5/2 vs. 8 or 10-1.

That's a fair point. I guess I just prefer other higher priced alternatives to WM.

[Princess Doreen]

While I am probably using Giant Oak, his exercise rider was helping us out this summer and he told us he is the biggest hanger. Said that he just drops the bit when he gets towards the lead and while he has talent, just wont' pass horses.

17 races in the past 2 years with nary a win - five 2nds and two 3rds, and he's the favorite to win the Marathon? I must be missing something.:confused:

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

forever together
and mine that bird
will get none of my plays..they both look done..

[NTamm1215]

forever together
and mine that bird
will get none of my plays..they both look done..

Careful out on that limb:)

[hockey2315]

forever together
and mine that bird
will get none of my plays..they both look done..

Can either of them be close to favorites?

[JerseyJ]

I'm not sure what races you were watching.

That being said, I'm betting the Reddam horse.

Yeah she looked impressive, but against the clock it wasn't much better than others in here that I have alluded to. As well I think Winter Memories last race was also very much a bit of having an extremely weak field behind her...I mean seriously, Arch Support was 2nd. Arch Support has zero ability whatsoever. Winter Memories is going to be a short price and there are plenty of ways to go to take her on.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Careful out on that limb:)

ok zenyatta,goldikova

[Kasept]

FRIDAY

MOST: While I respect her immensely, how can Rightly So not be a vulnerable fave in the F&M Sprint? I suppose there is a distinct chance she gets edged in the wagering ultimately by Informed Decision, who has been making an increased case for herself daily, but the point is that this 7f dash looks like a spot ripe for something off the pace and at at least a square price.. (On that front, Champagne d'Oro & Evening Jewel are certainly in my grid.)

LEAST: Nick Luck from Racing UK, whom you can hear on today's ATR during all of Hour 3, feels Midday won't lose, and says that Europe collectively backs that thought. But I'm inclined to think Blind Luck has a lot going for her in a spot where she gets a pace to chase on a track she relished during the spring.


SATURDAY

MOST: With the arrival of the Euros (equine and human) and under increased scrutiny, Workforce appears a very vulnerable fave. For openers, those close to the scene say he's not going to like the hard surface. Second, and probably more importantly, he is built more for gracious Woodbine/Arlington/Belmont style grass courses, as opposed to Churchill's more narrow and rather hairpin oval.

LEAST: Goldikova. As I wrote in the Xpressbet Guide, if her story continues with a 3rd Mile victory, there won't be an accomplishment in Cup history more monumental. And as a coda, Luck said on air today that Wertheimer & Frere have hinted that they may bring the mare back in '11..

[hockey2315]

FRIDAY
LEAST: Nick Luck from Racing UK, whom you can hear on today's ATR during all of Hour 3, feels Midday won't lose, and says that Europe collectively backs that thought. But I'm inclined to think Blind Luck has a lot going for her in a spot where she gets a pace to chase on a track she relished during the spring.

Didn't it seem like a lot of the Europeans last year were disparaging Midday? I think they have a tough time objectively evaluating their own horses when coming over here. Red Desire and Plumania should be stubborn foes for her.

I'm with you on Blind Luck. Earlier this year I was very much against her, but she has proven to be an excellent horse who always fires.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

ok zenyatta,goldikova

workforce was flattered in the arc, goldikova in my opinion will have to deal with paco boy with a better trip and priviso..

[Kasept]

Didn't it seem like a lot of the Europeans last year were disparaging Midday? I think they have a tough time objectively evaluating their own horses when coming over here. Red Desire and Plumania should be stubborn foes for her.

I'm with you on Blind Luck. Earlier this year I was very much against her, but she has proven to be an excellent horse who always fires.

I was surprised Nick was so adamant about Midday. I like Red Desire myself as well off her scary looking presence on the track here and having discovered through Haskin's conversation with the Japanese that she went virtually untrained into the Flower Bowl.

[letswastemoney]

I was surprised Nick was so adamant about Midday. I like Red Desire myself as well off her scary looking presence on the track here and having discovered through Haskin's conversation with the Japanese that she went virtually untrained into the Flower Bowl.

I wish I factored that in before I singled her in all my tickets for the Flower Bowl :)

[brockguy]

Didn't it seem like a lot of the Europeans last year were disparaging Midday? I think they have a tough time objectively evaluating their own horses when coming over here. Red Desire and Plumania should be stubborn foes for her.

I'm with you on Blind Luck. Earlier this year I was very much against her, but she has proven to be an excellent horse who always fires.

I think Midday is a very solid favourite.. I can't see Plumania beating her. In the Vermeille, I thought she got the run of the race and couldn't beat Midday. Also stepping down in trip from 12f to 11f wont help her bridge that gap imo.

I do agree that Red Desire will be difficult to beat and in my view, the only legit threat to Midday. I'd be willing to bet that she comes on leaps and bounds from her US debut.

[cakes44]

FRIDAY

MOST: While I respect her immensely, how can Rightly So not be a vulnerable fave in the F&M Sprint? I suppose there is a distinct chance she gets edged in the wagering ultimately by Informed Decision, who has been making an increased case for herself daily, but the point is that this 7f dash looks like a spot ripe for something off the pace and at at least a square price.. (On that front, Champagne d'Oro & Evening Jewel are certainly in my grid.)

Sorry about your luck as I love Evening Jewel. Victor Espinoza and one of his patented early moves scares me though.

[hockey2315]

Jessica Is Back.

[VOL JACK]

FRIDAY

MOST: While I respect her immensely, how can Rightly So not be a vulnerable fave in the F&M Sprint? I suppose there is a distinct chance she gets edged in the wagering ultimately by Informed Decision, who has been making an increased case for herself daily, but the point is that this 7f dash looks like a spot ripe for something off the pace and at at least a square price.. (On that front, Champagne d'Oro & Evening Jewel are certainly in my grid.)

LEAST: Nick Luck from Racing UK, whom you can hear on today's ATR during all of Hour 3, feels Midday won't lose, and says that Europe collectively backs that thought. But I'm inclined to think Blind Luck has a lot going for her in a spot where she gets a pace to chase on a track she relished during the spring.


SATURDAY

MOST: With the arrival of the Euros (equine and human) and under increased scrutiny, Workforce appears a very vulnerable fave. For openers, those close to the scene say he's not going to like the hard surface. Second, and probably more importantly, he is built more for gracious Woodbine/Arlington/Belmont style grass courses, as opposed to Churchill's more narrow and rather hairpin oval.

LEAST: Goldikova. As I wrote in the Xpressbet Guide, if her story continues with a 3rd Mile victory, there won't be an accomplishment in Cup history more monumental. And as a coda, Luck said on air today that Wertheimer & Frere have hinted that they may bring the mare back in '11..

I agree with all of this except the part about Champagne D'Oro coming from off the pace....:confused:

[Clip-Clop]

I agree with all of this except the part about Champagne D'Oro coming from off the pace....:confused:

Off the pace that gets set, maybe. Square price? I hope so, I think they just gave her a nice work in her last to set this up. Never expected to win that one.

[RockHardTen1985]

Im giving Harmonious a long look if she goes in the Filly N Mare Turf. Midday is a stone cold A, but Im not in love with anyone else....

[Thunder Gulch]

I think Midday is a single...can't really find one for Saturday.

[Kasept]

I agree with all of this except the part about Champagne D'Oro coming from off the pace....:confused:

True. Relatively "off the pace" for Champagne... Stalking the first flight.