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View Full Version : 11/5 (CD): Breeders' Cup Friday (Post Draw Fields; ML's)


Kasept
10-27-2010, 05:28 AM
MARATHON (4:10p)

1. Atoned (N. Howard/R. Albarado) 20-1
2. Prince Will I Am (M. Nihei/J. Castellano) 4-1
3. Million Seller (G. Motion/J. Rose) 50-1
4. Eldaafer (D. Alvarado/J. Velazquez) 12-1
5. Romp (K. Mulhall/M. Garcia) 50-1
6. Gabriel's Hill (S. Benzel/J. Leparoux) 20-1
7. Awesome Gem (C. Dollase/D. Flores) 7-2*
8. Giant Oak (C. Block/J. Alvarado) 4-1
9. Bright Horizon (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh) 10-1
10. Alcomo (E. Caramori/G. Gomez) 6-1
11. Precision Break (P. Cole/J. Spencer) 6-1
12. A. U. Miner (C. Hanna/F. Pennington) 9-2



JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (4:50p)

1. Dos Lunas (J. Glenney/J. Court) 30-1
2. Tale Untold (R. Hannon/R. Moore) 15-1
3. Quiet Oasis (B. Meehan/F. Dettori) 8-1
4. Kathmanblu (K. McPeek/J. Leparoux) 10-1
5. Forest Legend (V. Oliver/R. Dominguez) 30-1
6. Arch Support (G. Contessa/E. Prado) 20-1
7. Winter Memories (J. Toner/J. Lezcano) 2-1*
8. Wyomia (D. Vella/R. Bejarano) 12-1
9. Fancy Point (W. Phipps/K. Desormeaux) 15-1
10. New Normal (M. Frostad/J. Castellano) 10-1
11. More Than Real (T. Pletcher/G. Gomez) 10-1
12. Flood Plain (J. Gosden/W. Buick) 20-1
13. Together (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh) 5-1
14. Allure D'Amour (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) 15-1
AE-15. Nina Fever (W. Ward)[/I] 50-1



FILLY & MARE SPRINT (5:30p)

1. My Jen (E. Kenneally/J. Velazquez) 15-1
2. Sara Louise (S. bin Suroor/F. Dettori) 15-1
3. Secret Gypsy (R. Werner/R. Albarado) 12-1
4. Informed Decision (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) 7-2
5. Evening Jewel (J. Cassidy/V. Espinoza) 15-1
6. Moontune Missy (E. Harty/A. Garcia) 30-1
7. Gabby's Golden Gal (B. Baffert/M. Garcia) 15-1
8. Sweet August Moon (B. Koriner/M. Smith) 30-1
9. Switch (J. Sadler/J. Rosario) 20-1
10. Rinterval (E. Reed/R. Bejarano) 20-1
11. Jessica Is Back (M. Wolfson/J. Castellano) 12-1
12. Dubai Majesty (W. Calhoun/J. Theriot) 6-1
13. Rightly So (A. Dutrow/C. Velasquez) 3-1*
14. Champagne D'oro (E. Guillot/M. Mena) 6-1
AE-15 Tidal Pool (W. Lukas) 50-1
AE-16. First Passage (M. Wolfson) 50-1



JUVENILE FILLIES (6:10p)

1. Indian Gracey (J. Hollendorfer/R. Bejarano) 15-1
2. Theysken's Theory (F. Dettori) 10-1
3. R Heat Lightning (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) 4-1
4. Awesome Feather (S. Gold/J. Sanchez) 6-1
5. Harlan's Ruby (K. McPeek/J. Leparoux) 15-1
6. Joyful Victory (A. Dutrow/R. Dominguez) 15-1
7. Izshelegal (T. Knight/M. Smith) 30-1
8. A Z Warrior (B. Baffert/M. Garcia) 7-2*
9. Delightful Mary (M. Casse/S. Bridgmohan) 8-1
10. Believe in A.P. (R. Dutrow/G. Gomez) 15-1
11. Soundwave (R. Werner/R. Albarado) 20-1
12. Tell A Kelly (J. Sadler/C. Borel) 9-2
13. Jordy Y (W. Catalano/J. Rosario) 30-1



FILLY & MARE TURF (6:50p)

1. Plumania (A. Fabre/O. Peslier) 8-1
2. Eclair de Lune (R. McAnally/J. Alvarado) 15-1
3. Miss Keller (R. Attfield/J. Castellano) 8-1
4. Keertana (T. Proctor/J. Lezcano) 30-1
5. Shared Account (G. Motion/E. Prado) 30-1
6. Harmonious (J. Sherriffs/J. Rosario) 6-1
7. Midday (H. Cecil/T. Queally) 6-5*
8. Hot Cha Cha (P. Sims/J. Graham) 30-1
9. Hibaayeb (S. bin Suroor/F. Dettori) 8-1
10. Red Desire (M. Matsunaga/C. Soumillion) 8-1
11. Forever Together (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) 10-1



DISTAFF/LADIES CLASSIC (7:30p)

1. Life at Ten (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) 7-2
2. It's Tea Time (R. Arnold/J. Leparoux) 15-1
3. Malibu Prayer (T. Pletcher/G. Gomez) 8-1
4. Milwaukee Appeal (S. Fairlie/R. Bejarano) 30-1
5. Acting Happy (R. Dutrow/J. Lezcano) 20-1
6. Persistently (C. McGaughey/A. Garcia) 12-1
7. Seeking the Title (D. Stewart/C. Borel) 30-1
8. Unrivaled Belle (B. Mott/K. Desormeaux) 8-1
9. Acoma (D. Carroll/R. Albarado) 20-1
10. Blind Luck (J. Hollendorfer/J. Rosario) 9-5*
11. Havre de Grace (A. Dutrow/J. Rose) 4-1

philcski
10-27-2010, 10:01 AM
21 entries for the F&M Sprint (and a SUPER betting race). 4 years in and this has become such a well received division. Fantastic!

randallscott35
10-27-2010, 10:03 AM
21 entries for the F&M Sprint (and a SUPER betting race). 4 years in and this has become such a well received division. Fantastic!

Start all 21.

Scav
10-27-2010, 10:03 AM
Steve, is the (*) mean their preference?

Sightseek
10-27-2010, 10:09 AM
I'm actually more excited for the Distaff than the Classic, but I'm a huge Blind Luck fan. :o

knickslions2
10-27-2010, 10:13 AM
21 entries for the F&M Sprint (and a SUPER betting race). 4 years in and this has become such a well received division. Fantastic!

Should be a wild race

RockHardTen1985
10-27-2010, 10:43 AM
Anyone down on the Ladies Classic group? I know it seems like everyone is running, but it just seems so plain/not that good.

RockHardTen1985
10-27-2010, 10:51 AM
I think Im in love......13. Theysken's Theory -- Juvenile Fillies Turf

Kasept
10-27-2010, 11:19 AM
Friday now corrected with un-selected horses listed in preference order and revised race order...

Kasept
10-27-2010, 11:20 AM
Steve, is the (*) mean their preference?

Yes!

gamblin4ever
10-27-2010, 11:32 AM
Anyone down on the Ladies Classic group? I know it seems like everyone is running, but it just seems so plain/not that good.

Looks like very nice betting race.

hockey2315
10-27-2010, 11:50 AM
I think Im in love......13. Theysken's Theory -- Juvenile Fillies Turf

You should want her on the dirt, not the turf. . . But please don't do this to me.

Indian Charlie
10-27-2010, 11:53 AM
You should want her on the dirt, not the turf. . . But please don't do this to me.

Better you than me.

He's picked a few horses I'm high on.

wild barry
10-27-2010, 11:56 AM
Does anyone know why the filly and mare sprint is at 7f and the breeders cup sprint is at 6f ?

Betsy
10-27-2010, 12:22 PM
I think Im in love......13. Theysken's Theory -- Juvenile Fillies Turf


She's not going to run there, she's going in the dirt race..........

hockey2315
10-27-2010, 12:29 PM
Does anyone know why the filly and mare sprint is at 7f and the breeders cup sprint is at 6f ?

Just for variety I think. It has always been at 7F.

RolloTomasi
10-27-2010, 12:32 PM
Just for variety I think. It has always been at 7F.

I thought they did that so that it could dilute two races, the BC Sprint and the BC Distaff, instead of just one.

In a similar vein, when are they going to downgrade the BC Dirt Mile to a Grade 3?

NTamm1215
10-27-2010, 12:45 PM
I thought they did that so that it could dilute two races, the BC Sprint and the BC Distaff, instead of just one.

In a similar vein, when are they going to downgrade the BC Dirt Mile to a Grade 3?

The first running of the DM was worthy of a GI since you had two horses in it (Corinthian and Discreet Cat) who had won the only other GI races at a mile in this country. Albertus Maximus bouyed the second running with a win in the Donn and Two Step Salsa came back to win the Godolphin Mile, so it's had a couple of quality runnings.

Last year's field, um, not so much.

cakes44
10-27-2010, 12:48 PM
I thought they did that so that it could dilute two races, the BC Sprint and the BC Distaff, instead of just one.

In a similar vein, when are they going to downgrade the BC Dirt Mile to a Grade 3?

The last time it was actually on dirt, it was possibly the most impressive performance of the entire BC that year. It's pretty hard to knock the quality of the race any of the last 3 years really. There are some talented horses in this year's field as well IMO.

Princess Doreen
10-27-2010, 12:50 PM
Prince Will I Am
Winter Memories
Champagne D'Oro
R Heat Lightning
Keertana
Havre de Grace

Don't confuse me with facts - my mind's made up.:)

Here comes woofie!

Fulla Sheets
10-27-2010, 02:12 PM
Is anyone beating Midday?

hockey2315
10-27-2010, 02:21 PM
I don't see why Plumania or Red Desire can't. I like what they did w/ Red Desire especially.

hockey2315
10-27-2010, 02:26 PM
Mike Welsh's stuff is usually pretty good, but what the F@#$ is this?

Sweet Gypsy (Filly and Mare Turf, four furlongs in 47.40 seconds): The morning’s lone Breeders’ Cup worker came out shortly after the renovation break with jockey Robby Albarado aboard. Showing her usual speed, Sweet Gypsy zipped through an opening quarter and three-eighths in 23 and change and 34 and change, although she did tire some through a final furlong in 12.70 and during an ordinary gallop-out when pulling up five-eighths in 1:02.55. As noted earlier, although the track was listed as fast for the work there was still some moisture in it; Secret Gypsy’s only two off-the-board finishes on dirt came on wet tracks, raising the question as to whether she might have finished stronger today over a little firmer ground.

Fulla Sheets
10-27-2010, 02:56 PM
I don't see why Plumania or Red Desire can't. I like what they did w/ Red Desire especially.

I disagree with Red Desire. I thought in her last she had a perfect trip and couldnt get by Changing Skies. Maybe Im missing something, but I think she is a toss.

hockey2315
10-27-2010, 03:07 PM
I disagree with Red Desire. I thought in her last she had a perfect trip and couldnt get by Changing Skies. Maybe Im missing something, but I think she is a toss.

There was no way she was going to run well on that soft ground first time in the U.S. She's going to turn in a much better performance in the BC - obviously you can't like her if you think she was at her best at Belmont.

hockey2315
10-27-2010, 03:25 PM
I don't see why Plumania or Red Desire can't. I like what they did w/ Red Desire especially.

I forgot about Miss Keller. She could win too.

Dahoss
10-27-2010, 03:29 PM
Obviously Blind Luck and Havre de Grace are the horses to beat in the Distaff. But I think Malibu Prayer has a shot to take them a long way. If she draws well and is ridden aggressively, she might prove tough to catch IMO.

knickslions2
10-27-2010, 03:33 PM
Obviously Blind Luck and Havre de Grace are the horses to beat in the Distaff. But I think Malibu Prayer has a shot to take them a long way. If she draws well and is ridden aggressively, she might prove tough to catch IMO.

I like Malibu Prayer's chance here.

Fulla Sheets
10-27-2010, 03:47 PM
I forgot about Miss Keller. She could win too.

I like Keertana a little too, I think she is improving and can out run most of the North Americans.

Scav
10-27-2010, 04:06 PM
I like Keertana a little too, I think she is improving and can out run most of the North Americans.

LOL

pweizer
10-27-2010, 04:32 PM
There was no way she was going to run well on that soft ground first time in the U.S. She's going to turn in a much better performance in the BC - obviously you can't like her if you think she was at her best at Belmont.

Red Desire will be my key play on Friday. She will be very dangerous in this spot.

Paul

ateamstupid
10-27-2010, 04:38 PM
You should want her on the dirt, not the turf. . . But please don't do this to me.

Took the words out of my mouth.

lemoncrush
10-27-2010, 05:03 PM
I think Im in love......13. Theysken's Theory -- Juvenile Fillies Turf

How long until you change your name to bernadini1985?

my miss storm cat
10-27-2010, 08:03 PM
http://pdfs.thoroughbreddailynews.com/generic_upload/pdf/BreedersCupFriday2010.pdf

Dahoss
10-27-2010, 09:55 PM
Is Rightly So really going to be the ML favorite? She's a real nice filly, but I will be shocked if she wins. Unless the track is as biased as it was for her Ballerina win.

blackthroatedwind
10-27-2010, 10:05 PM
You should want her on the dirt, not the turf. . . But please don't do this to me.

She's running on the dirt.

blackthroatedwind
10-27-2010, 10:06 PM
Is Rightly So really going to be the ML favorite? She's a real nice filly, but I will be shocked if she wins. Unless the track is as biased as it was for her Ballerina win.

I won't cry when she beats me, as I like her, but she feels like one of the biggest bet againsts on the entire card ( outside of anyone the VI likes ).

hockey2315
10-27-2010, 10:40 PM
She's running on the dirt.

I know, and I'll be betting her. I think I was thrown off by the part that was quoted where it says "Juvenile Fillies Turf" - thought he was saying he liked her there. I guess that's to delineate the other race she's being considered for. If she takes to the dirt, I think she towers over anything I've seen in the U.S. so far this year. I'll probably back up with the Delightful Mary and Tell A Kelly, though.

hockey2315
10-27-2010, 10:41 PM
I won't cry when she beats me, as I like her, but she feels like one of the biggest bet againsts on the entire card ( outside of anyone the VI likes ).

Kind of sucks that Nicole H isn't going to get in. . . I don't know if I would've liked her--haven't looked closely enough--but she'd be an interesting wild card.

RolloTomasi
10-27-2010, 11:12 PM
The first running of the DM was worthy of a GI since you had two horses in it (Corinthian and Discreet Cat) who had won the only other GI races at a mile in this country. Albertus Maximus bouyed the second running with a win in the Donn and Two Step Salsa came back to win the Godolphin Mile, so it's had a couple of quality runnings.

Last year's field, um, not so much.

I'll give you Corinthian, who was an in-and-outer--making it arguable that the race sucked. In fact, if he was more consistent, he probably would have been in the Classic. IIRC, wasn't Discreet Cat toast by the time of the BC?

As for Albertus Maximus, he was a listed stakes winner at the time of his victory. Granted he won the Donn a few months after the fact. But he didn't follow it up with anything else after getting injured in Dubai. Two Step Salsa winning the Godolphin Mile? That's that race that Grey Memo and Festival Of Light won, right?

Last year we had Furthest Land. The race is getting worse and worse.

This year's race reads like a good rendition of the Longacres Mile. In other words, a Grade 3.

blackthroatedwind
10-27-2010, 11:15 PM
Kind of sucks that Nicole H isn't going to get in. . . I don't know if I would've liked her--haven't looked closely enough--but she'd be an interesting wild card.

I hear you but horses like that never win. She is good though.....really good.

I don't like Theysken's Theory. I understand the appeal, but over time these kinds of horses are pseudo wise guy horses that just don't win. Plus, I'm not thrilled with her last race. I know it got a good rating but I'm dubious.

The problem is we tend to decide the horses we have seen aren't that good, so we overrate the new faces, and these new faces are rarely real value. And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.

I haven't really done much work on the race....but I'm very dubious of Theysken's Theory.

chucklestheclown
10-27-2010, 11:53 PM
And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.


Funny but w/o seeing the PPs yet I like her too.

chucklestheclown
10-28-2010, 12:09 AM
http://pdfs.thoroughbreddailynews.com/generic_upload/pdf/BreedersCupFriday2010.pdf

Thanks again MMSC!

hockey2315
10-28-2010, 12:14 AM
I hear you but horses like that never win. She is good though.....really good.

I don't like Theysken's Theory. I understand the appeal, but over time these kinds of horses are pseudo wise guy horses that just don't win. Plus, I'm not thrilled with her last race. I know it got a good rating but I'm dubious.

The problem is we tend to decide the horses we have seen aren't that good, so we overrate the new faces, and these new faces are rarely real value. And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.

I haven't really done much work on the race....but I'm very dubious of Theysken's Theory.

You don't think she moved too soon last time? She has a dirt stride to me.

blackthroatedwind
10-28-2010, 12:19 AM
You don't think she moved too soon last time? She has a dirt stride to me.

I'll have to watch the race again.

Dirt stride? I'm not that clever. But, I will say, given her results over there, she appears to handle the turf just fine.

JerseyJ
10-28-2010, 06:08 AM
Funny but w/o seeing the PPs yet I like her too.

That's how you like to handicap...it's obvious looking at the PPs does you no good in terms of picking winners so why not try it without PPs. Maybe you would fare better by picking names? Saddle Colors? Pick the Grays?

Betsy
10-28-2010, 07:24 AM
I hear you but horses like that never win. She is good though.....really good.

I don't like Theysken's Theory. I understand the appeal, but over time these kinds of horses are pseudo wise guy horses that just don't win. Plus, I'm not thrilled with her last race. I know it got a good rating but I'm dubious.

The problem is we tend to decide the horses we have seen aren't that good, so we overrate the new faces, and these new faces are rarely real value. And the obvious, like R Heat Lightning ( funny coincidence she has almost the same name as Theysken's Theory's dam ), often pay better than they should.

I haven't really done much work on the race....but I'm very dubious of Theysken's Theory.

If it matters, she's considered a very good filly overseas - one of the favorites for the Guineas. Her trainer said recently that her last was a good race, but not her best and she's thriving now. Perhaps she didn't handle the soft ground so well.......she is a big filly and considered to have a ton of potential by the Euros. She's the same as AZ Warrior to me (who I like a lot in the race); if she handles the dirt, she'll be very tough. Of course, just because she's bred for it doesn't mean she'll take to it.

NTamm1215
10-28-2010, 07:43 AM
It's kind of interesting that Theyskens' Theory has a half brother in Belmont's 1st race on Friday.

blackthroatedwind
10-28-2010, 08:06 AM
It's kind of interesting that Theyskens' Theory has a half brother in Belmont's 1st race on Friday.

Theysken's Theory had to have been a buyback, as her owner bought the dam a few days after Stevie Wonderboy won the Juvenile.

That's another reason she will be overbet. The " brother won the BC Juvie " plotline will be beaten to death.

philcski
10-28-2010, 08:12 AM
Is Rightly So really going to be the ML favorite? She's a real nice filly, but I will be shocked if she wins. Unless the track is as biased as it was for her Ballerina win.

I think so. It's a very contentious group but she makes the most sense as who will be bet. That said, I'm against her- there is so much speed in here. My initial impression is this race is melting down.

Kind of sucks that Nicole H isn't going to get in. . . I don't know if I would've liked her--haven't looked closely enough--but she'd be an interesting wild card.

She is some talent. Yet another case of synthetics masking true ability.

hockey2315
10-28-2010, 10:11 AM
Mike Welsh's stuff is usually pretty good, but what the F@#$ is this?

Sweet Gypsy (Filly and Mare Turf, four furlongs in 47.40 seconds): The morning’s lone Breeders’ Cup worker came out shortly after the renovation break with jockey Robby Albarado aboard. Showing her usual speed, Sweet Gypsy zipped through an opening quarter and three-eighths in 23 and change and 34 and change, although she did tire some through a final furlong in 12.70 and during an ordinary gallop-out when pulling up five-eighths in 1:02.55. As noted earlier, although the track was listed as fast for the work there was still some moisture in it; Secret Gypsy’s only two off-the-board finishes on dirt came on wet tracks, raising the question as to whether she might have finished stronger today over a little firmer ground.

More idiocy - in Brad Free's little graded handicap thing on DRF for the Friday races, he has the "last race" for all horses coming out of the Darley Alcibiades listed as the Danny Alcibiades. Danny was a good man. . . I'm glad they named a race after him.

Travis Stone
10-28-2010, 10:45 AM
Can anyone confirm the max starters for the Juvenile Turf races? I've been told/read both 12 and 14. I think it's 14 based on a quick news search, but can't find anything official.

robfla
10-28-2010, 10:54 AM
Can anyone confirm the max starters for the Juvenile Turf races? I've been told/read both 12 and 14. I think it's 14 based on a quick news search, but can't find anything official.

I read 14.... link to follow

edit: http://bcwc2010.com/the-races/

Each race is limited to fourteen starters and if the race has more than 14 horses pre-enter, a field selection system is used to determine the starters for each race.

RockHardTen1985
10-28-2010, 11:18 AM
Obviously Blind Luck and Havre de Grace are the horses to beat in the Distaff. But I think Malibu Prayer has a shot to take them a long way. If she draws well and is ridden aggressively, she might prove tough to catch IMO.

The Mott wont be glued to her?

Travis Stone
10-28-2010, 11:49 AM
Steve Crist's story in the DRF print advance says...

Also, there will be a maximum of 14 starters in all races, whereas some turf races had been limited to 12 in the past.

Betsy
10-28-2010, 01:06 PM
Theysken's Theory had to have been a buyback, as her owner bought the dam a few days after Stevie Wonderboy won the Juvenile.

That's another reason she will be overbet. The " brother won the BC Juvie " plotline will be beaten to death.

She was a buyback......

Just curious: what's the difference between AZ Warrior, who you thought was a contender in the Frizette if she preferred dirt, and this filly?

robfla
10-28-2010, 01:23 PM
Steve Crist's story in the DRF print advance says...
Also, there will be a maximum of 14 starters in all races, whereas some turf races had been limited to 12 in the past.

I believe that has to do with a turf course other than that of CD

Dahoss
10-28-2010, 02:25 PM
The Mott wont be glued to her?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USkLlJCnR2c

RockHardTen1985
10-28-2010, 08:22 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=USkLlJCnR2c

That track was insane speed, no?

Dahoss
10-28-2010, 08:25 PM
That track was insane speed, no?

No.

chucklestheclown
10-29-2010, 04:21 AM
That's how you like to handicap...it's obvious looking at the PPs does you no good in terms of picking winners so why not try it without PPs. Maybe you would fare better by picking names? Saddle Colors? Pick the Grays?

You must be a Glen Beck Fan. I consistently cash.:$:

dpkovalesky
10-30-2010, 07:23 PM
when is the draw? tues?

jms62
10-31-2010, 06:46 AM
when is the draw? tues?

It would be really great if they can do this 1 week in advance so horseplayers have the full weekend before to handicap.

RockHardTen1985
10-31-2010, 09:31 AM
when is the draw? tues?

I thought Fridays card would be out Monday.

NTamm1215
10-31-2010, 09:42 AM
The draw for both days is Tuesday but the BC Advance kind of covers everything, right? These really aren't races where you have to make huge adjustments for post position or jockeys.

I mean, I know countless people nationwide are waiting to see who's in the Ack Ack, Dream Supreme, and Jimmy V Classic on Saturday.

Princess Doreen
10-31-2010, 10:23 AM
I remember reading somewhere, and naturally can't find it now, that Friday's races will be drawn on Tuesday and Saturday's on Wednesday.

NTamm1215
10-31-2010, 10:29 AM
I remember reading somewhere, and naturally can't find it now, that Friday's races will be drawn on Tuesday and Saturday's on Wednesday.

They're drawing both on Tuesday.

-BT-
10-31-2010, 06:36 PM
i understand she's run against males and won in dubai on the poly, and she ran a close 3rd to vodka last year, but one race since may.... i wasn't impressed with her flower bowl at all, not sure if she didn't like the surface or what...but i've heard a lot of buzz on her.

can anyone tell me the reason everyone seems to be high on her?


-bt-

PatCummings
10-31-2010, 09:07 PM
i understand she's run against males and won in dubai on the poly, and she ran a close 3rd to vodka last year, but one race since may.... i wasn't impressed with her flower bowl at all, not sure if she didn't like the surface or what...but i've heard a lot of buzz on her.

can anyone tell me the reason everyone seems to be high on her?


-bt-

Don't you find it humorous that you knock the fact she only had one race since May and then say you weren't impressed with it at all. It was a prep.

The connections pointed to the F&M Turf in July and did what, to my knowledge, no other Japanese horse has ever done in BC history, ship early and get a leg-stretching prep in the US. She beat Buena Vista in 2009 who will be a favorite in the Japan Cup, then ran 4th to her over a mile (well short of her best distance) in May...in 1:32.2. FWIW, Buena Vista ran 2000 last night in 1:58.2 over goodish going.

She bled in training and really wasn't possible to go in Japan, so instead of retiring her, they took a really good horse and got her some Lasix and said - let's go make some more money.

Not thrilled KD is on her, but she will be the single horse I bet most during the weekend, by far.

chucklestheclown
10-31-2010, 10:34 PM
Not thrilled KD is on her, but she will be the single horse I bet most during the weekend, by far.

Not Soumillion?

-BT-
11-01-2010, 09:41 AM
Don't you find it humorous that you knock the fact she only had one race since May and then say you weren't impressed with it at all. It was a prep.
The connections pointed to the F&M Turf in July and did what, to my knowledge, no other Japanese horse has ever done in BC history, ship early and get a leg-stretching prep in the US. She beat Buena Vista in 2009 who will be a favorite in the Japan Cup, then ran 4th to her over a mile (well short of her best distance) in May...in 1:32.2. FWIW, Buena Vista ran 2000 last night in 1:58.2 over goodish going.

She bled in training and really wasn't possible to go in Japan, so instead of retiring her, they took a really good horse and got her some Lasix and said - let's go make some more money.

Not thrilled KD is on her, but she will be the single horse I bet most during the weekend, by far.

none the less i wasn't overly impressed with her prep, i thought the horse had no excuse to lose that race. well, i guess we'll have to agree do disagree. The horse is a complete fade for me.

-bt-

pweizer
11-01-2010, 10:21 AM
Don't you find it humorous that you knock the fact she only had one race since May and then say you weren't impressed with it at all. It was a prep.

The connections pointed to the F&M Turf in July and did what, to my knowledge, no other Japanese horse has ever done in BC history, ship early and get a leg-stretching prep in the US. She beat Buena Vista in 2009 who will be a favorite in the Japan Cup, then ran 4th to her over a mile (well short of her best distance) in May...in 1:32.2. FWIW, Buena Vista ran 2000 last night in 1:58.2 over goodish going.

She bled in training and really wasn't possible to go in Japan, so instead of retiring her, they took a really good horse and got her some Lasix and said - let's go make some more money.

Not thrilled KD is on her, but she will be the single horse I bet most during the weekend, by far.


Pat--what are your thoughts on the route Espoir City took to the Breeders Cup?

Paul

Travis Stone
11-01-2010, 10:23 AM
Pat--what are your thoughts on the route Espoir City took to the Breeders Cup?

Paul

He'll have to beat Etched...

pweizer
11-01-2010, 10:40 AM
He'll have to beat Etched...

I would take that head to head matchup...

Paul

PatCummings
11-01-2010, 12:54 PM
Pat--what are your thoughts on the route Espoir City took to the Breeders Cup?

Paul

I similarly think the race in Japan was a true prep for the Classic (as Red Desire's Flower Bowl), and know that they pointed him to the Classic at the same time Red Desire was as well...but not happy that they didn't bring him here earlier to acclimate, and unimpressed with the trackwork I saw on Sunday.

Red Desire ran a huge race, and was asked for a ton, in the Maktoum Challenge in Dubai and came back to flop (relatively) in the Dubai World Cup. Seeing her take the Flower Bowl in stride was what I was looking for if I hoped to bet her on BC day.

dalakhani
11-01-2010, 10:06 PM
What do you guys think of Shared Account's chances to hit the board?

RockHardTen1985
11-01-2010, 10:09 PM
What do you guys think of Shared Account's chances to hit the board?


I would give her almost no chance. The 2 Euros, Red Desire and Harmonious all look much better. Forever Together's running style could lead her to a clunk up third over SA IMO.

Kasept
11-02-2010, 01:22 PM
DISTAFF/LADIES CLASSIC (7:30p)

1. Life at Ten (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) 7-2
2. It's Tea Time (R. Arnold/J. Leparoux) 15-1
3. Malibu Prayer (T. Pletcher/G. Gomez) 8-1
4. Milwaukee Appeal (S. Fairlie/R. Bejarano) 30-1
5. Acting Happy (R. Dutrow/J. Lezcano) 20-1
6. Persistently (C. McGaughey/A. Garcia) 12-1
7. Seeking the Title (D. Stewart/C. Borel) 30-1
8. Unrivaled Belle (B. Mott/K. Desormeaux) 8-1
9. Acoma (D. Carroll/R. Albarado) 20-1
10. Blind Luck (J. Hollendorfer/J. Rosario) 9-5*
11. Havre de Grace (A. Dutrow/J. Rose) 4-1

Kasept
11-02-2010, 01:31 PM
MARATHON (4:10p)

1. Atoned (N. Howard/R. Albarado) 20-1
2. Prince Will I Am (M. Nihei/J. Castellano) 4-1
3. Million Seller (G. Motion/J. Rose) 50-1
4. Eldaafer (D. Alvarado/J. Velazquez) 12-1
5. Romp (K. Mulhall/M. Garcia) 50-1
6. Gabriel's Hill (S. Benzel/J. Leparoux) 20-1
7. Awesome Gem (C. Dollase/D. Flores) 7-2*
8. Giant Oak (C. Block/J. Alvarado) 4-1
9. Bright Horizon (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh) 10-1
10. Alcomo (E. Caramori/G. Gomez) 6-1
11. Precision Break (P. Cole/J. Spencer) 6-1
12. A. U. Miner (C. Hanna/F. Pennington) 9-2

randallscott35
11-02-2010, 01:33 PM
MARATHON (4:10p)

1. Atoned (N. Howard/R. Albarado) 20-1
2. Prince Will I Am (M. Nihei/J. Castellano) 4-1
3. Million Seller (G. Motion/J. Rose) 50-1
4. Eldaafer (D. Alvarado/J. Velazquez) 12-1
5. Romp (K. Mulhall/M. Garcia) 50-1
6. Gabriel's Hill (S. Benzel/J. Leparoux) 20-1
7. Awesome Gem (C. Dollase/D. Flores) 7-2*
8. Giant Oak (C. Block/J. Alvarado) 4-1
9. Bright Horizon (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh) 10-1
10. Alcomo (E. Caramori/G. Gomez) 6-1
11. Precision Break (P. Cole/J. Spencer) 6-1
12. A. U. Miner (C. Hanna/F. Pennington) 9-2

Atoned is 20-1? How wide can robbie go from the rail? Sign me up.

blackthroatedwind
11-02-2010, 01:35 PM
DISTAFF/LADIES CLASSIC (7:30p)

1. Life at Ten (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) 7-2
2. It's Tea Time (R. Arnold/J. Leparoux) 15-1
3. Malibu Prayer (T. Pletcher/G. Gomez) 8-1
4. Milwaukee Appeal (S. Fairlie/R. Bejarano) 30-1
5. Acting Happy (R. Dutrow/J. Lezcano) 20-1
6. Persistently (C. McGaughey/A. Garcia) 12-1
7. Seeking the Title (D. Stewart/C. Borel) 30-1
8. Unrivaled Belle (B. Mott/K. Desormeaux) 8-1
9. Acoma (D. Carroll/R. Albarado) 20-1
10. Blind Luck (J. Hollendorfer/J. Rosario) 9-5*
11. Havre de Grace (A. Dutrow/J. Rose) 4-1

It's Tea Time at 15:1?

That's funny.

Indian Charlie
11-02-2010, 01:38 PM
I was kinda hoping the new thing we'd be seeing from Zenyatta was a sudden entry of her into the Marathon.

Oh well.

randallscott35
11-02-2010, 01:45 PM
It's Tea Time at 15:1?

That's funny.

Somehow Arnold gets bet too often in KY.

Kasept
11-02-2010, 01:46 PM
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (4:50p)

1. Dos Lunas (J. Glenney/J. Court) 30-1
2. Tale Untold (R. Hannon/R. Moore) 15-1
3. Quiet Oasis (B. Meehan/F. Dettori) 8-1
4. Kathmanblu (K. McPeek/J. Leparoux) 10-1
5. Forest Legend (R. Dominguez) 30-1
6. Arch Support (G. Contessa/E. Prado) 20-1
7. Winter Memories (J. Toner) 2-1*
8. Wyomia (D. Vella/R. Bejarano) 12-1
9. Fancy Point (W. Phipps/K. Desormeaux) 15-1
10. New Normal (M. Frostad/J. Castellano) 10-1
11. More Than Real (T. Pletcher/G. Gomez) 10-1
12. Flood Plain (J. Gosden/W. Buick) 20-1
13. Together (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh) 5-1
14. Allure D'Amour (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) 15-1
AE-15. Nina Fever (W. Ward)[/I] 50-1

blackthroatedwind
11-02-2010, 01:51 PM
Somehow Arnold gets bet too often in KY.

Not enough in this race to make a 250:1 shot 15:1. Overall, however, you're probably right.

The Indomitable DrugS
11-02-2010, 01:51 PM
JUVENILE FILLIES TURF (4:50p)

1. Dos Lunas (J. Glenney/J. Court) 30-1
2. Tale Untold (R. Hannon/R. Moore) 15-1
3. Quiet Oasis (B. Meehan/F. Dettori) 8-1
4. Kathmanblu (K. McPeek/J. Leparoux) 10-1
5. Forest Legend (R. Dominguez) 30-1
6. Arch Support (G. Contessa/E. Prado) 20-1
7. Winter Memories (J. Toner) 2-1*
8. Wyomia (D. Vella/R. Bejarano) 12-1
9. Fancy Point (W. Phipps/K. Desormeaux) 15-1
10. New Normal (M. Frostad/J. Castellano) 10-1
11. More Than Real (T. Pletcher/G. Gomez) 10-1
12. Flood Plain (J. Gosden/W. Buick) 20-1
13. Together (A. O'Brien/J. Murtagh) 5-1
14. Allure D'Amour (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) 15-1
AE-15. Nina Fever (W. Ward)[/I] 50-1

Probably the only real big losers of todays draw.

pweizer
11-02-2010, 01:56 PM
Probably the only real big losers of todays draw.

Also Rightly So and Chamberlain Bridge.

Paul

Dahoss
11-02-2010, 01:56 PM
Tale Untold is 15-1 ML, while Together is 5-1? I don't really get that one.

Kasept
11-02-2010, 01:59 PM
FILLY & MARE SPRINT (5:30p)

1. My Jen (E. Kenneally/J. Velazquez) 15-1
2. Sara Louise (S. bin Suroor/F. Dettori) 15-1
3. Secret Gypsy (R. Werner/R. Albarado) 12-1
4. Informed Decision (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) 7-2
5. Evening Jewel (J. Cassidy/V. Espinoza)
6. Moontune Missy (E. Harty/A. Garcia) 30-1
7. Gabby's Golden Gal (B. Baffert/M. Garcia) 15-1
8. Sweet August Moon (B. Koriner/M. Smith) 30-1
9. Switch (J. Sadler/J. Rosario) 20-1
10. Rinterval (E. Reed/R. Bejarano) 20-1
11. Jessica Is Back (M. Wolfson/J. Castellano) 12-1
12. Dubai Majesty (W. Calhoun/J. Theriot) 6-1
13. Rightly So (A. Dutrow/C. Velasquez) 3-1*
14. Champagne D'oro (E. Guillot/M. Mena) 6-1
AE-15 Tidal Pool (W. Lukas) 50-1
AE-16. First Passage (M. Wolfson) 50-1

PatCummings
11-02-2010, 02:01 PM
Red Desire will be my key play on Friday. She will be very dangerous in this spot.

Paul

I'm with you Paul - my day will rise and fall with her, and I'm willing to let it be that way.

The Indomitable DrugS
11-02-2010, 02:06 PM
FILLY & MARE SPRINT (5:30p)

1. My Jen (E. Kenneally/J. Velazquez) 15-1
2. Sara Louise (S. bin Suroor/F. Dettori) 15-1
3. Secret Gypsy (R. Werner/R. Albarado) 12-1
4. Informed Decision (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) 7-2
5. Evening Jewel (J. Cassidy/V. Espinoza)
6. Moontune Missy (E. Harty/A. Garcia) 30-1
7. Gabby's Golden Gal (B. Baffert/M. Garcia) 15-1
8. Sweet August Moon (B. Koriner/M. Smith) 30-1
9. Switch (J. Sadler/J. Rosario) 20-1
10. Rinterval (E. Reed/R. Bejarano) 20-1
11. Jessica Is Back (M. Wolfson/J. Castellano) 12-1
12. Dubai Majesty (W. Calhoun/J. Theriot) 6-1
13. Rightly So (A. Dutrow/C. Velasquez) 3-1*
14. Champagne D'oro (E. Guillot/M. Mena) 6-1
AE-15 Tidal Pool (W. Lukas) 50-1
AE-16. First Passage (M. Wolfson) 50-1

Switch at 20/1 is a joke. She'll be a whole lot shorter.

NTamm1215
11-02-2010, 02:07 PM
Switch at 20/1 is a joke. She'll be a whole lot shorter.

And run like she should be 100-1.

Antitrust32
11-02-2010, 02:11 PM
Switch at 20/1 is a joke. She'll be a whole lot shorter.

Will Sara Louise at 15-1 be an okay bet?

The Indomitable DrugS
11-02-2010, 02:11 PM
And run like she should be 100-1.

Why? Her dirt race wasn't bad.

The Indomitable DrugS
11-02-2010, 02:13 PM
Will Sara Louise at 15-1 be an okay bet?

Off of only a single uninspiring race this year? Not for me.

Antitrust32
11-02-2010, 02:14 PM
Off of only a single uninspiring race this year? Not for me.

she likes churchill and the field seems to royally suck.

Is Informed Decision a toss on dirt?

NTamm1215
11-02-2010, 02:22 PM
Why? Her dirt race wasn't bad.

Granted it was probably a lot farther than she wants to go but I didn't think much of her dirt race. The pace was decent but she folded up and Gulfstream isn't exactly a track known for exposing distance-challenged horses.

Sadler is 1 for 11 with graded stakes horses going synth to dirt with Mona De Momma being the lone exception and there have been numerous small price losers. I guess 15-1 would be a decent enough price on her but I'm just not high on her chances to win.

VOL JACK
11-02-2010, 02:23 PM
21 entries for the F&M Sprint (and a SUPER betting race). 4 years in and this has become such a well received division. Fantastic!

I was all for it and the dirt mile.
The Juvy turfs have been ok too.

The Marathon is garbage and is probably in its final year or two.

VOL JACK
11-02-2010, 02:25 PM
Switch at 20/1 is a joke. She'll be a whole lot shorter.

I was shocked at that ML.
I thought off the Zenyatta running line she would 6,8-1ml.

The Indomitable DrugS
11-02-2010, 02:27 PM
she likes churchill and the field seems to royally suck.

Is Informed Decision a toss on dirt?

I would make my largest win bet in BC history if the race was 7fs on synthetic.

It's not - and Informed Decision can beat me.

Dahoss
11-02-2010, 02:28 PM
Off of only a single uninspiring race this year? Not for me.

I think she's going to get a lot out of that start. She really only ran for a furlong or so in the Gallant Bloom. The Godolphin horses really haven't been firing off the long layoffs here like they had in years past. But some have run a lot better second back. Plus she is getting a giant jock upgrade.

I think she has a very good shot in here.

cakes44
11-02-2010, 02:29 PM
So what is the ML on Evening Jewel?

ateamstupid
11-02-2010, 02:31 PM
I think she's going to get a lot out of that start. She really only ran for a furlong or so in the Gallant Bloom. The Godolphin horses really haven't been firing off the long layoffs here like they had in years past. But some have run a lot better second back. Plus she is getting a giant jock upgrade.

I think she has a very good shot in here.

I think the Gallant Bloom in general is better than the figs suggest. I like Moontune Missy to hit the board at a high number too.

randallscott35
11-02-2010, 02:32 PM
I think the Gallant Bloom in general is better than the figs suggest. I like Moontune Missy to hit the board at a high number too.

Possible. I like cutbacks though. Evening Jewel is one of the ones.

Dahoss
11-02-2010, 02:42 PM
I think the Gallant Bloom in general is better than the figs suggest. I like Moontune Missy to hit the board at a high number too.

I like her a bit as well...but I liked her a lot more last time and that head cost me a grand. It's a fascinating race and I can't see using any horse less than double digit odds. IMO all of the favorites have major holes in them.

The Indomitable DrugS
11-02-2010, 02:43 PM
Granted it was probably a lot farther than she wants to go but I didn't think much of her dirt race. The pace was decent but she folded up and Gulfstream isn't exactly a track known for exposing distance-challenged horses.

It was a nice race for a mile from a lightly raced horse.

They ran three 9f routes that day:

Devil May Care went her mile in 1:35.59

Rule went his mile in 1:36.09 on a 2 length lead in the Fla Derby before caving in late.

Unrivalled Belle went her mile in 1:36.25 on a 1.5 length lead

Basically - Switch ran her mile in the same time as Rule did in the Florida Derby .. and she was mixing it up with a pack of pretty good in-form 3yo filly milers like Amen Hall and Christine Daae.

analyizethis
11-02-2010, 03:11 PM
FILLY & MARE TURF (6:50p)

1. Midday (H. Cecil/T. Queally)
2. Eclair de Lune (R. McAnally/J. Alvarado)
3. Plumania (A. Fabre/O. Peslier) -- Turf
4. Red Desire (M. Matsunaga/C. Soumillion) -- Turf
5. Forever Together (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux)
6. Miss Keller (R. Attfield/J. Castellano)
7. Shared Account (G. Motion/E. Prado)
8. Hot Cha Cha (P. Sims/J. Graham)
9. Keertana (T. Proctor/J. Lezcano)
10. Hibaayeb (S. bin Suroor)
11. Shared Account (G. Motion/E. Prado)

HELP! Shared Account listed twice in F & M Turf, no Harmonious.

chucklestheclown
11-02-2010, 03:14 PM
HELP! Shared Account listed twice in F & M Turf, no Harmonious.

She is a super-horse.

Kasept
11-02-2010, 03:50 PM
HELP! Shared Account listed twice in F & M Turf, no Harmonious.

It hasn't been revised yet (posts, final jock or odds).

Kasept
11-02-2010, 04:01 PM
JUVENILE FILLIES (6:10p)

1. Indian Gracey (J. Hollendorfer/R. Bejarano) 15-1
2. Theysken's Theory (F. Dettori) 10-1
3. R Heat Lightning (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez) 4-1
4. Awesome Feather (S. Gold/J. Sanchez) 6-1
5. Harlan's Ruby (K. McPeek/J. Leparoux) 15-1
6. Joyful Victory (A. Dutrow/R. Dominguez) 15-1
7. Izshelegal (T. Knight/M. Smith) 30-1
8. A Z Warrior (B. Baffert/M. Garcia) 7-2*
9. Delightful Mary (M. Casse/S. Bridgmohan) 8-1
10. Believe in A.P. (R. Dutrow/G. Gomez) 15-1
11. Soundwave (R. Werner/R. Albarado) 20-1
12. Tell A Kelly (J. Sadler/C. Borel) 9-2
13. Jordy Y (W. Catalano/J. Rosario) 30-1

Kasept
11-02-2010, 04:07 PM
FILLY & MARE TURF (6:50p)

1. Plumania (A. Fabre/O. Peslier) 8-1
2. Eclair de Lune (R. McAnally/J. Alvarado) 15-1
3. Miss Keller (R. Attfield/J. Castellano) 8-1
4. Keertana (T. Proctor/J. Lezcano) 30-1
5. Shared Account (G. Motion/E. Prado) 30-1
6. Harmonious (J. Sherriffs/J. Rosario) 6-1
7. Midday (H. Cecil/T. Queally) 6-5*
8. Hot Cha Cha (P. Sims/J. Graham) 30-1
9. Hibaayeb (S. bin Suroor/F. Dettori) 8-1
10. Red Desire (M. Matsunaga/C. Soumillion) 8-1
11. Forever Together (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) 10-1

The Indomitable DrugS
11-02-2010, 04:17 PM
FILLY & MARE TURF (6:50p)

1. Plumania (A. Fabre/O. Peslier) 8-1
2. Eclair de Lune (R. McAnally/J. Alvarado) 15-1
3. Miss Keller (R. Attfield/J. Castellano) 8-1
4. Keertana (T. Proctor/J. Lezcano) 30-1
5. Shared Account (G. Motion/E. Prado) 30-1
6. Harmonious (J. Sherriffs/J. Rosario) 6-1
7. Midday (H. Cecil/T. Queally) 6-5*
8. Hot Cha Cha (P. Sims/J. Graham) 30-1
9. Hibaayeb (S. bin Suroor/F. Dettori) 8-1
10. Red Desire (M. Matsunaga/C. Soumillion) 8-1
11. Forever Together (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) 10-1

How can you not like 10/1 on Forever Together while breaking from the 11 hole - winless for the last year and a half and off of two horrible performances.

NTamm1215
11-02-2010, 04:19 PM
It was a nice race for a mile from a lightly raced horse.

They ran three 9f routes that day:

Devil May Care went her mile in 1:35.59

Rule went his mile in 1:36.09 on a 2 length lead in the Fla Derby before caving in late.

Unrivalled Belle went her mile in 1:36.25 on a 1.5 length lead

Basically - Switch ran her mile in the same time as Rule did in the Florida Derby .. and she was mixing it up with a pack of pretty good in-form 3yo filly milers like Amen Hall and Christine Daae.

I see what you're saying I'm just not keen on her in this spot. It's a tremendously wide open race and the Z crowd will guarantee she and Rinterval are overbet I think.

Betsy
11-02-2010, 04:38 PM
Can't complain too badly, though I hate the #1 post for Biondetti.

The Indomitable DrugS
11-02-2010, 04:38 PM
I see what you're saying I'm just not keen on her in this spot. It's a tremendously wide open race and the Z crowd will guarantee she and Rinterval are overbet I think.

Most of the "Z crowd" seem to think the horse is like some kind of equine drama queen who is more concerened with dancing in the pre-race and pricking her ears for the photo finish camera than anything else.

Put her in with Ohio breds at Thistle or with Indy Cars at the Brickyard and the result will be the same... a well timed narrow Zenyatta win.

I doubt a whole lot of them are planning their Friday around betting Switch and Rinterval.

VOL JACK
11-02-2010, 05:16 PM
I see what you're saying I'm just not keen on her in this spot. It's a tremendously wide open race and the Z crowd will guarantee she and Rinterval are overbet I think.

How do you explain Rinterval taking no money in her last start at Kee?

my miss storm cat
11-02-2010, 05:16 PM
FILLY & MARE TURF (6:50p)

1. Plumania (A. Fabre/O. Peslier) 8-1
2. Eclair de Lune (R. McAnally/J. Alvarado) 15-1
3. Miss Keller (R. Attfield/J. Castellano) 8-1
4. Keertana (T. Proctor/J. Lezcano) 30-1
5. Shared Account (G. Motion/E. Prado) 30-1
6. Harmonious (J. Sherriffs/J. Rosario) 6-1
7. Midday (H. Cecil/T. Queally) 6-5*
8. Hot Cha Cha (P. Sims/J. Graham) 30-1
9. Hibaayeb (S. bin Suroor/F. Dettori) 8-1
10. Red Desire (M. Matsunaga/C. Soumillion) 8-1
11. Forever Together (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) 10-1

This is a really nice field but ummm 6/5 on Midday?

With Plumania and Red Desire in the same field?

Ummm okaaaay.

NTamm1215
11-02-2010, 05:51 PM
How do you explain Rinterval taking no money in her last start at Kee?

Rinterval should and will be a longshot in the F/M Sprint. The question to me boiled down to whether Switch is a good bet at what will be her closing odds (I'm guessing somewhere in the neighborhood of 12-1).

Mike
11-02-2010, 07:39 PM
I'm seeing Evening Jewel at 15-1 in Filly and Mare Sprint

SOREHOOF
11-02-2010, 08:17 PM
I'd love to see 15-1 on Friday!

VOL JACK
11-02-2010, 08:18 PM
Rinterval should and will be a longshot in the F/M Sprint. The question to me boiled down to whether Switch is a good bet at what will be her closing odds (I'm guessing somewhere in the neighborhood of 12-1).

I would take 12-1 all day on her.

mbahadur
11-02-2010, 08:25 PM
FILLY & MARE SPRINT (5:30p)

1. My Jen (E. Kenneally/J. Velazquez) 15-1
2. Sara Louise (S. bin Suroor/F. Dettori) 15-1
3. Secret Gypsy (R. Werner/R. Albarado) 12-1
4. Informed Decision (J. Sheppard/J. Leparoux) 7-2
5. Evening Jewel (J. Cassidy/V. Espinoza)
6. Moontune Missy (E. Harty/A. Garcia) 30-1
7. Gabby's Golden Gal (B. Baffert/M. Garcia) 15-1
8. Sweet August Moon (B. Koriner/M. Smith) 30-1
9. Switch (J. Sadler/J. Rosario) 20-1
10. Rinterval (E. Reed/R. Bejarano) 20-1
11. Jessica Is Back (M. Wolfson/J. Castellano) 12-1
12. Dubai Majesty (W. Calhoun/J. Theriot) 6-1
13. Rightly So (A. Dutrow/C. Velasquez) 3-1*
14. Champagne D'oro (E. Guillot/M. Mena) 6-1
AE-15 Tidal Pool (W. Lukas) 50-1
AE-16. First Passage (M. Wolfson) 50-1

Some nice prices in here.

If you can live with the long layoff and believe that the Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs was too far for her, Gabby's Golden Gal's last was a Grade 1 win (with Garcia on board and she beat Proviso) and she won a Grade 1 at a mile on the dirt in New York. You also have Baffert moving from synthetic to dirt and she should like the distance. Also lightly raced this year (similar to Midnight Lute). And I think she can rate behind the speed. With Baffert though, I am wondering if she will stay at 15-1.

I also would love Evening Jewel at double digit odds in here.

hockey2315
11-02-2010, 08:29 PM
Gabby's Golden Gal is no Midnight Lute. It's a shame that Champagne d'Oro got that bad post. . . she wasn't my top choice, but I was starting to warm to her a bit. Jessica Is Back is the value - her 7f performance in the Fleur de Lis might win this.

RockHardTen1985
11-02-2010, 09:24 PM
I'm seeing Evening Jewel at 15-1 in Filly and Mare Sprint

She never runs a bad race, has speed and is a turf to dirt turnback. I LOVE HER.

Indian Charlie
11-02-2010, 11:03 PM
She never runs a bad race, has speed and is a turf to dirt turnback. I LOVE HER.

The ol' infamous turf to dirt and cutback in distance combo move!!

That bangup second to Caracortado the last time she sprinted, ten months ago, that's bonus!!

ateamstupid
11-02-2010, 11:54 PM
The ol' infamous turf to dirt and cutback in distance combo move!!

That bangup second to Caracortado the last time she sprinted, ten months ago, that's bonus!!

If she were adding blinkers, switching trainers, changing sexes and running backwards, he'd love her even more.

Indian Charlie
11-02-2010, 11:57 PM
If she were adding blinkers, switching trainers, changing sexes and running backwards, he'd love her even more.

Actually, if she switched trainers, she'd be running in the distaff.

chucklestheclown
11-03-2010, 05:19 AM
I doubt a whole lot of them are planning their Friday around betting Switch and Rinterval.

I doubt they are old enough to bet.

chucklestheclown
11-03-2010, 05:20 AM
How do you explain Rinterval taking no money in her last start at Kee?

See ^^^

Kasept
11-03-2010, 05:23 AM
Actually, if she switched trainers, she'd be running in the distaff.
I/C,

That's not true and you aren't judging her fairly because of a pronounced disdain for Cassidy. On dirt, Cassidy feels, probably rightly, that 9f strains the outer limit of her ability. It's unreasonable to expect her to gut out a mile and an eighth on or near the lead with Acting Happy, Malibu Prayer, Life at Ten and Havre de Grace all involved with her, and still have something left to hold off Blind Luck. She couldn't do that with much lesser in the Oaks, and it's likely she wouldn't be able to do it Friday.

The F&M Turf is over her head right now too.. So what did that leave for her? I can tell you that Mott was not far away from putting Unrivaled Belle in the F&M Sprint as well, so you can understand how these decisions are made. Also, how can you negatively judge her potential for success on a turn back to 7f, (in start #14 on a dirt track she seemed to relish earlier in the year), on a result from her 4th career start 11 months ago at Hollywood when she faced colts as a 2yo. This race is probably the spot that could produce her best result at this point recognizing that there is a big difference between a 6f and 7f sprint. Does she have 6f sprinter speed? No. Does she have the kind of speed that can be effectively used at seven eighths? Yes. Next year as a 4yo, she could be better suited to try the F&M Turf or the Distaff, but right now, I think the F&M Sprint makes sense.

All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

herkhorse
11-03-2010, 05:25 AM
Steve, what do you think of Sara Louise?

ateamstupid
11-03-2010, 05:44 AM
All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

Really? From the 14-hole with no competitive race other than the Test, which was a decidedly weak renewal? You nailed her at 39-1 so I'm pretty surprised you'd be satisfied with 5-1 in this spot.

Kasept
11-03-2010, 05:44 AM
Steve, what do you think of Sara Louise?

Honestly Tom.. at this time I have no feel for her betability or liklihood for success. (Gus loves her in here I know.) I generally stay away from horses in situations like hers, but the 'real' BC Sprint has been one race where abbreviated campaigns or 'ouchy' types can be held together or pointed for one almighty effort. Desert Stormer and Lit de Justice won and Kela was 2nd having last started in August of their respective years for instance, and Fenstermaker hadn't started Precisionist since June in '85!

Second off the layoff here from what I think was a good group in the Gallant Bloom, can't be viewed as anything but positive. And also on the plus side is that she has the 2 races that are easily good enough to win this if she's right, and the 2 very favorable results on this strip as a 2yo with Romans. You're getting 15-1, and she is sure to have a pace to run into... Can't blame anyone for latching on to her.

Kasept
11-03-2010, 05:51 AM
Really? From the 14-hole with no competitive race other than the Test, which was a decidedly weak renewal? You nailed her at 39-1 so I'm pretty surprised you'd be satisfied with 5-1 in this spot.

I think she's the horse to key around. Nothing wrong with the 14 going 7f, as she and Rightly So will clear. She has that elongated sprint specialist edge I like (Maryfield-style), and in this instance, I think Guillot has done a very good job preparing her. She didn't care for the going at KEE and still was only beat 2L, and has looked terrific getting ready for this.

ateamstupid
11-03-2010, 05:54 AM
I think she's the horse to key around. Nothing wrong with the 14 going 7f, as she and Rightly So will clear. She has that elongated sprint specialist edge I like (Maryfield-style), and in this instance, I think Guillot has done a very good job preparing her. She didn't care for the going at KEE and still was only beat 2L, and has looked terrific getting ready for this.

I think that the only way she and Rightly So clear is if they go very fast early. Secret Gypsy and Gabby's Golden Gal are gunning too IMO. If so, C'D is either four-wide or on a fast pace or both. More than anything though, I think this is the most wide open race on the card, which is why it's hard for me to take either of the two outside horses at 5-1 and under.

knickslions2
11-03-2010, 07:49 AM
I/C,

That's not true and you aren't judging her fairly because of a pronounced disdain for Cassidy. On dirt, Cassidy feels, probably rightly, that 9f strains the outer limit of her ability. It's unreasonable to expect her to gut out a mile and an eighth on or near the lead with Acting Happy, Malibu Prayer, Life at Ten and Havre de Grace all involved with her, and still have something left to hold off Blind Luck. She couldn't do that with much lesser in the Oaks, and it's likely she wouldn't be able to do it Friday.

The F&M Turf is over her head right now too.. So what did that leave for her? I can tell you that Mott was not far away from putting Unrivaled Belle in the F&M Sprint as well, so you can understand how these decisions are made. Also, how can you negatively judge her potential for success on a turn back to 7f, (in start #14 on a dirt track she seemed to relish earlier in the year), on a result from her 4th career start 11 months ago at Hollywood when she faced colts as a 2yo. This race is probably the spot that could produce her best result at this point recognizing that there is a big difference between a 6f and 7f sprint. Does she have 6f sprinter speed? No. Does she have the kind of speed that can be effectively used at seven eighths? Yes. Next year as a 4yo, she could be better suited to try the F&M Turf or the Distaff, but right now, I think the F&M Sprint makes sense.

All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

Glad to hear you also like Champagne d'Oro. I really like that horse here.

Indian Charlie
11-03-2010, 09:28 AM
I/C,

That's not true and you aren't judging her fairly because of a pronounced disdain for Cassidy. On dirt, Cassidy feels, probably rightly, that 9f strains the outer limit of her ability. It's unreasonable to expect her to gut out a mile and an eighth on or near the lead with Acting Happy, Malibu Prayer, Life at Ten and Havre de Grace all involved with her, and still have something left to hold off Blind Luck. She couldn't do that with much lesser in the Oaks, and it's likely she wouldn't be able to do it Friday.

The F&M Turf is over her head right now too.. So what did that leave for her? I can tell you that Mott was not far away from putting Unrivaled Belle in the F&M Sprint as well, so you can understand how these decisions are made. Also, how can you negatively judge her potential for success on a turn back to 7f, (in start #14 on a dirt track she seemed to relish earlier in the year), on a result from her 4th career start 11 months ago at Hollywood when she faced colts as a 2yo. This race is probably the spot that could produce her best result at this point recognizing that there is a big difference between a 6f and 7f sprint. Does she have 6f sprinter speed? No. Does she have the kind of speed that can be effectively used at seven eighths? Yes. Next year as a 4yo, she could be better suited to try the F&M Turf or the Distaff, but right now, I think the F&M Sprint makes sense.

All of this said, I'm likely picking Champagne d'Oro in the race as she is the most likely winner and a square price anywhere close to the ML. But I'm including Evening Jewel.

There are several reasons I think the the Distaff is the spot to go. First off, I think Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle to overcome than anything in the Distaff. Even beyond Champagne, the sprint is a better and tougher field.

Next, she really hasn't been trained up to a sprint to end her season, has she? She's been running very effectively at longer distances. Who in their right mind uses the QEII as a prep for a grade one sprint??!

As for her ability to sprint vs. going 9 on dirt, well, if you can use the reasoning that she might have improved since her December sprint, I don't think it's a stretch to say she might have improved since the Oaks in what was essentially early May.

Her race in the Oaks, she sat off the lead and I see no reason why that wouldn't happen again. Also, I don't think Blind Luck is going to win the Distaff anyways. I think she's a toss.

That all being said, if she were my horse, I'd probably have run her in the Cal Cup and ran QT in the BC mile. I don't think there are any spots that she fits well in the BC.

However, with that, I believe it's entirely possible she'd have cashed a nice check in the Distaff. The Sprint though, I think the race would need to fall apart for her to make any noise at all.

NTamm1215
11-03-2010, 09:46 AM
There are several reasons I think the the Distaff is the spot to go. First off, I think Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle to overcome than anything in the Distaff. Even beyond Champagne, the sprint is a better and tougher field.

Next, she really hasn't been trained up to a sprint to end her season, has she? She's been running very effectively at longer distances. Who in their right mind uses the QEII as a prep for a grade one sprint??!

As for her ability to sprint vs. going 9 on dirt, well, if you can use the reasoning that she might have improved since her December sprint, I don't think it's a stretch to say she might have improved since the Oaks in what was essentially early May.

Her race in the Oaks, she sat off the lead and I see no reason why that wouldn't happen again. Also, I don't think Blind Luck is going to win the Distaff anyways. I think she's a toss.

That all being said, if she were my horse, I'd probably have run her in the Cal Cup and ran QT in the BC mile. I don't think there are any spots that she fits well in the BC.

However, with that, I believe it's entirely possible she'd have cashed a nice check in the Distaff. The Sprint though, I think the race would need to fall apart for her to make any noise at all.

I understand you don't like Blind Luck (I'm still stunned you called her a newer version of Octave) but I can't see how Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle than anything in the Distaff. I find that very far fetched.

Cassidy has terrific numbers with cutbacks (16%, $2.90 over last five years) and her defeat in the Oaks made it clear, at least to me, that she's going to need basically everything to go right to win at 9fs because it did for her and she was still beaten.

CSC
11-03-2010, 10:35 AM
This is a really nice field but ummm 6/5 on Midday?

With Plumania and Red Desire in the same field?

Ummm okaaaay.

There's one Euro that no one has mentioned that I am really looking fwd to betting. On another note, I wonder if Stoute will truly scratch Workforce if the course remains too hard this week.

ateamstupid
11-03-2010, 10:41 AM
There's one Euro that no one has mentioned that I am really looking fwd to betting. On another note, I wonder if Stoute will truly scratch Workforce if the course remains too hard this week.

Oh you big tease. Don't leave the world waiting.

Indian Charlie
11-03-2010, 11:50 AM
I understand you don't like Blind Luck (I'm still stunned you called her a newer version of Octave) but I can't see how Champagne d'Oro is a bigger hurdle than anything in the Distaff. I find that very far fetched.

Cassidy has terrific numbers with cutbacks (16%, $2.90 over last five years) and her defeat in the Oaks made it clear, at least to me, that she's going to need basically everything to go right to win at 9fs because it did for her and she was still beaten.

I do like Blind Luck. I projected her to be the best 3yo filly going into this year from last. I just don't think this crop of 3yo fillies is very good.

Besides Champagne, the sprint field is a lot tougher, and for lack of a better word, saltier.

She never has shown a propensity for sprinting, and cutting her back after a year of running long, seems, well, a bit far fetched to me.

Indian Charlie
11-03-2010, 11:51 AM
There's one Euro that no one has mentioned that I am really looking fwd to betting. On another note, I wonder if Stoute will truly scratch Workforce if the course remains too hard this week.

Don't forget, that a hard turf course here, in Europe, it means it's got six inches of water floating on top of the grass.

RockHardTen1985
11-03-2010, 08:36 PM
Im falling truly madly deeply in love with Unrivaled Belle. In her last 4 starts she has.... Defeated every ones WORLD BEATER ON THE SQUARE... Then 3 times in a row, was put on the total chase in 5,5 and 6 horse fields. She was forced to chase/press early, and one could argue all 3 of the track she caught on those days were playing 2 speed. She did all the dirty work in those races and a lot of her kick was sucked out of her. She draws perfect, absolutely perfect in this race. I pray Kent does not ingage Malibu Prayer... Let Life At Ten, Havre De Grace or Acting Happy engage that one early. Maybe this is the same situation, just a bigger field, but I just hope Kent has learned and stalks, instead of pressing. The fact is, she will likely be 10x the price that she was in her last race. How can she be bet? She has lost on the square to the Pletcher filly's who both show up in this spot..... Maybe Joey S is wrong again, but the bottom line is at 10x the price of her last race, and maybe 10x the price of the chalk who needs to come from the clouds Im giving UB a giant shot to get first jump and win this race.

hockey2315
11-03-2010, 09:04 PM
What was Unrivaled Belle's excuse last time? She's exposed imo.

RockHardTen1985
11-03-2010, 09:06 PM
What was Unrivaled Belle's excuse last time? She's exposed imo.

Shes just chasing and pressing these short fields... Grant it, it could happen again, but is L@T gonna let MP go? Why does he even enter both?
I just think based on price, shes worth a play... She draws perfect.

hockey2315
11-03-2010, 09:13 PM
She had an easy trip last time and came up empty. She's been dull.

Dahoss
11-03-2010, 09:14 PM
Why does he enter both? Why not? Don't you think they learned their lesson with Life At Ten in the Personal Ensign, thus the rating in the Beldame?

RockHardTen1985
11-03-2010, 09:19 PM
Why does he enter both? Why not? Don't you think they learned their lesson with Life At Ten in the Personal Ensign, thus the rating in the Beldame?

L@T not more accomplished? Is she not the one that they want to win this with? PE was a one time situation, you know better. 10f and an insane ride. She flew early at Belmont when she popped UB.
My 2 things with UB are, a much better price. Not a little better, we are talking like 10x better. And hopefully a better trip in a bigger field, where shes not forced to press.

hockey2315
11-03-2010, 09:23 PM
Shes just chasing and pressing these short fields... Grant it, it could happen again, but is L@T gonna let MP go? Why does he even enter both?
I just think based on price, shes worth a play... She draws perfect.

Different owners dude. And obviously, like Hoss said, they're not sending Life At Ten again. . .

the_fat_man
11-03-2010, 09:25 PM
L@T not more accomplished? Is she not the one that they want to win this with? PE was a one time situation, you know better. 10f and an insane ride. She flew early at Belmont when she popped UB.
My 2 things with UB are, a much better price. Not a little better, we are talking like 10x better. And hopefully a better trip in a bigger field, where shes not forced to press.

This is very sound thinking. Bet on a horse that only can with an absolutely perfect trip. Not only does there need to be a strong front duel but none of the closers can fire.

Dahoss
11-03-2010, 09:26 PM
L@T not more accomplished? Is she not the one that they want to win this with? PE was a one time situation, you know better. 10f and an insane ride. She flew early at Belmont when she popped UB.
My 2 things with UB are, a much better price. Not a little better, we are talking like 10x better. And hopefully a better trip in a bigger field, where shes not forced to press.

Your theory is they only want to win the race with Life At Ten? I would hope you know better than that. How many horses does Pletcher have with Evans? You don't think he'd like to win a Breeders Cup race for him?

Don't you think they learned from the PE? Why rate last time if they weren't trying to do something different? If you think the plan is to have them dueling with each other...I don't know what to say. That's insane.

RockHardTen1985
11-03-2010, 09:28 PM
Different owners dude. And obviously, like Hoss said, they're not sending Life At Ten again. . .

I know who the owners are.

hockey2315
11-03-2010, 09:29 PM
I know who the owners are.

How many times has Pletcher run two horses in a race?

RockHardTen1985
11-03-2010, 09:30 PM
Your theory is they only want to win the race with Life At Ten? I would hope you know better than that. How many horses does Pletcher have with Evans? You don't think he'd like to win a Breeders Cup race for him?

Don't you think they learned from the PE? Why rate last time if they weren't trying to do something different? If you think the plan is to have them dueling with each other...I don't know what to say. That's insane.

Fine I dont like her, Ill take BL at 8-5 in a decent at best paced race.

RockHardTen1985
11-03-2010, 09:32 PM
This is very sound thinking. Bet on a horse that only can with an absolutely perfect trip. Not only does there need to be a strong front duel but none of the closers can fire.

Who do you like?

Dahoss
11-03-2010, 09:34 PM
Fine I dont like her, Ill take BL at 8-5 in a decent at best paced race.

Haha...dude, like who you want. I just don't understand your thinking in regards to the Pletcher horses and instead of providing a cogent arguement, it's like you're throwing crap at the wall.

I like Malibu prayer a bit and most think she has no shot. Who cares? Stop taking EVERYTHING personally.

RockHardTen1985
11-03-2010, 09:36 PM
Haha...dude, like who you want. I just don't understand your thinking in regards to the Pletcher horses and instead of providing a cogent arguement, it's like you're throwing crap at the wall.

I like Malibu prayer a bit and most think she has no shot. Who cares? Stop taking EVERYTHING personally.

Im tossing Blind Luck.
Im using MP also.
Might stand w/ MP and UB.

hockey2315
11-03-2010, 09:38 PM
I'd hate to be alive in any kind of meaningful Pk4 and not have the two three-year-olds.

Dahoss
11-03-2010, 09:42 PM
I'd hate to be alive in any kind of meaningful Pk4 and not have the two three-year-olds.

I don't see how you could not have at least one if not both covered in any multi race exotic. Especially because the F&M Turf doesn't seem like a race you need to spread too much.

hockey2315
11-03-2010, 09:44 PM
I don't see how you could not have at least one if not both covered in any multi race exotic. Especially because the F&M Turf doesn't seem like a race you need to spread too much.

All my Pk4s will finish Red Desire, Plumania w/ Blind Luck, Havre de Grace.

I'll probably regret chucking Midday, but love Red Desire to the point where I'm basically singling her and only using Plumania because she's a high price.

chucklestheclown
11-03-2010, 09:59 PM
All my Pk4s will finish Red Desire, Plumania w/ Blind Luck, Havre de Grace.

I'll probably regret chucking Midday, but love Red Desire to the point where I'm basically singling her and only using Plumania because she's a high price.

Wow. You'd use Plumania from the one-hole but not Hibaayeb at the same odds?
Good Luck.

Kasept
11-03-2010, 10:00 PM
She had an easy trip last time and came up empty. She's been dull.

She's a major loon. A creepy and edgy horse that get spooked by the P.A. system. She never engages in her pre-race antics in the mornings when things are quiet. You're right to assume she won't allow herself to succeed in most situations and go against her. She can jump up and beat you, but there are more reliable entities in here or prices with upside to marry yourself to Unrivaled Belle. In her favor, she's had a good 2 weeks.

hockey2315
11-03-2010, 10:00 PM
Hibaayeb sucks, Plumania doesn't. Since when is the one hole a bad thing? It amazes me how many ridiculous post-related posts there have been on this site since the draw.

hockey2315
11-03-2010, 10:01 PM
She's a major loon. A creepy and edgy horse that get spooked by the P.A. system. She never engages in her pre-race antics in the mornings when things are quiet. You're right to assume she won't allow herself to succeed in most situations and go against her. She can jump up and beat you, but there are more reliable entities in here or prices with upside to marry yourself to Unrivaled Belle. In her favor, she's had a good 2 weeks.

The lights and crowd won't be fun for her either.

Dahoss
11-03-2010, 10:02 PM
Hibaayeb sucks, Plumania doesn't. Since when is the one hole a bad thing? It amazes me how many ridiculous post-related posts there have been on this site since the draw.

Consider the source

hockey2315
11-03-2010, 10:06 PM
Consider the source

I know. I don't understand how someone can frequent a horse related message board, brag about not using PPs, and appear so completely off base at all times. What's the point?

Kasept
11-03-2010, 10:07 PM
The lights and crowd won't be fun for her either.

Glad you brought up the lights.. By rights, they shouldn't be a problem for any horse as they all have jogged or worked under them here as it doesn't get light till 7:45+. Churchill has the lamps lit all morning so the horses have had a chance to get used to them if they weren't previously.

hockey2315
11-03-2010, 10:09 PM
Glad you brought up the lights.. By rights, they shouldn't be a problem for any horse as they all have jogged or worked under them here as it doesn't get light till 7:45+. Churchill has the lamps lit all morning so the horses have had a chance to get used to them if they weren't previously.

Did you see the Willcox Inn incident this AM? Heard it was minor and Stidham wasn't concerned. . . but I'm not down there so can't be 100% sure. I love him in that race.

Kasept
11-03-2010, 10:15 PM
Did you see the Willcox Inn incident this AM? Heard it was minor and Stidham wasn't concerned. . . but I'm not down there so can't be 100% sure. I love him in that race.

I didn't... There was a crush of horses that came out at once.

ateamstupid
11-03-2010, 11:42 PM
All my Pk4s will finish Red Desire, Plumania w/ Blind Luck, Havre de Grace.

I'll probably regret chucking Midday, but love Red Desire to the point where I'm basically singling her and only using Plumania because she's a high price.

Midday's win over Plumania last time out was as decisive as a 3/4 length win can be. Red Desire's the only one who can beat her.

hockey2315
11-03-2010, 11:50 PM
Plumania's trip in that race was similar to Goldikova's in the Foret - tougher (very barely).

You may be the only person on here w/ a bigger chip on their shoulder than me :)

Dahoss
11-03-2010, 11:52 PM
You may be the only person on here w/ a bigger chip on their shoulder than me :)

I resent that.

ateamstupid
11-04-2010, 12:03 AM
Plumania's trip in that race was similar to Goldikova's in the Foret - tougher (very barely).

You may be the only person on here w/ a bigger chip on their shoulder than me :)

She sat up on an extremely slow pace the entire way. That's the only reason she held off Sarafina, who was stuck at the rear. Midday beats her every time, especially with a quicker pace. What's the chip on my shoulder? That Red Desire's the only one who can beat Midday?

hockey2315
11-04-2010, 12:06 AM
She sat up on an extremely slow pace the entire way. That's the only reason she held off Sarafina, who was stuck at the rear. Midday beats her every time, especially with a quicker pace. What's the chip on my shoulder? That Red Desire's the only one who can beat Midday?

I didn't see the race that way, but I'll defer.

Don't play dumb with the second part.

ateamstupid
11-04-2010, 12:10 AM
I didn't see the race that way, but I'll defer.

Don't play dumb with the second part.

I really don't know what you mean. I have opinions like the rest of you nerds.

hockey2315
11-04-2010, 12:12 AM
I really don't know what you mean. I have opinions like the rest of you nerds.

How was the "decisive 3/4 length win" thing not an allusion to our Goldikova/Paco Boy discussion earlier?

ateamstupid
11-04-2010, 12:14 AM
How was the "decisive 3/4 length win" thing not an allusion to our Goldikova/Paco Boy discussion earlier?

It honestly wasn't.

hockey2315
11-04-2010, 12:18 AM
Fair enough. . . Red Desire cruises anyways.

RockHardTen1985
11-04-2010, 01:39 AM
I don't see how you could not have at least one if not both covered in any multi race exotic. Especially because the F&M Turf doesn't seem like a race you need to spread too much.

I dont want either... Simple. I am totally against. I think either Todd, UB is more likely.

RockHardTen1985
11-04-2010, 01:41 AM
How was the "decisive 3/4 length win" thing not an allusion to our Goldikova/Paco Boy discussion earlier?

She wont beat Midday, stick to the 2. Dont waste with the third. Its Midday and Red Desire all day. Id use Harmonious over the other Euro.

chucklestheclown
11-04-2010, 10:42 AM
I know. I don't understand how someone can frequent a horse related message board, brag about not using PPs, and appear so completely off base at all times. What's the point?
I don't "brag" about not using PPs...I just rarely use them. I bet what I know and what I don't know I supplement by using other things...including the PPs.
I know that though I know Plumania's record and feel sorry for her I'll not use her.

Dahoss
11-04-2010, 10:51 AM
I dont want either... Simple. I am totally against. I think either Todd, UB is more likely.

What are you against though? What about them are you against....explain your opinion.

ateamstupid
11-04-2010, 10:53 AM
I don't "brag" about not using PPs...I just rarely use them. I bet what I know and what I don't know I supplement by using other things...including the PPs.
I know that though I know Plumania's record and feel sorry for her I'll not use her.

You feel sorry for her? What does that mean?

RockHardTen1985
11-04-2010, 10:56 AM
What are you against though? What about them are you against....explain your opinion.

I have said it 10x. The race is pretty paceless. I think it plays into MP and UB. Is it crazy to take a stand and say BL wont be able to pass them all? The other one is an afterthought for me. SHe got 10 pounds last time, the better trip and barley did it. I dont have any clever idea, other then the 2 likely favorites 10,11 are not much better then some of the others.

chucklestheclown
11-04-2010, 11:00 AM
You feel sorry for her? What does that mean?

It means she did not do well in her last race and they don't know why. They're just throwing darts here.

Dahoss
11-04-2010, 11:04 AM
I have said it 10x. The race is pretty paceless. I think it plays into MP and UB. Is it crazy to take a stand and say BL wont be able to pass them all? The other one is an afterthought for me. SHe got 10 pounds last time, the better trip and could not do it. I dont have any clever idea, other then the 2 likely favorites 10,11 are not much better then some of the others.

How did she not do it last time? She won the race right?

I think it is crazy to take a stand against them both...but I also don't think the plan is for the two Pletcher's to duel. Maybe I'm looking at the race all wrong. We'll see.

Dahoss
11-04-2010, 11:04 AM
They're just throwing darts here.

Pot meet kettle

RockHardTen1985
11-04-2010, 11:05 AM
How did she not do it last time? She won the race right?

I think it is crazy to take a stand against them both...but I also don't think the plan is for the two Pletcher's to duel. Maybe I'm looking at the race all wrong. We'll see.

I know she won, I typed wrong...
I dont think the Todds are going to duel I just thought they would be up on a slow pace, making them more likely then a close. Your not looking at it wrong.

ateamstupid
11-04-2010, 11:05 AM
It means she did not do well in her last race and they don't know why. They're just throwing darts here.

Pretty sure you're making that up.

chucklestheclown
11-04-2010, 11:07 AM
Pretty sure you're making that up.

Pretty sure I know more about her than you do. Look at the Timeform stuff yet?

Dahoss
11-04-2010, 11:09 AM
Oh my god

RockHardTen1985
11-04-2010, 11:11 AM
Oh my god

This is to Chuckles, right?

ateamstupid
11-04-2010, 11:12 AM
I have said it 10x. The race is pretty paceless. I think it plays into MP and UB. Is it crazy to take a stand and say BL wont be able to pass them all? The other one is an afterthought for me. SHe got 10 pounds last time, the better trip and barley did it. I dont have any clever idea, other then the 2 likely favorites 10,11 are not much better then some of the others.

I really disagree that it's paceless. Acting Happy is most likely going to try and steal it, Malibu Prayer needs to be very close and Unrivaled Belle does too. They won't be suicidal fractions, but they'll be respectable. Regardless, Blind Luck has made a habit out of winning from off modest paces. She's also tractable. Bejarano had her too far out of it in the Oaks and she still won. I think Rosario realizes she has more tactical speed than that and he'll keep her in good position.

Havre de Grace just keeps improving and I really think she drew ideally for the race. Good luck.

ateamstupid
11-04-2010, 11:14 AM
Pretty sure I know more about her than you do. Look at the Timeform stuff yet?

I don't think you do. Wertheimer et Frere and Andre Fabre aren't sending her to America if they're not sure what her deal is. I don't think she's going to win, but it's not because she ran badly in the Arc and 'they're throwing darts'.

Dahoss
11-04-2010, 11:19 AM
This is to Chuckles, right?

Of course...so when people pm you about it later, tell them.

hockey2315
11-04-2010, 11:56 AM
Pretty sure I know more about her than you do. Look at the Timeform stuff yet?

It was a giant field and she never got a chance to run. Please stop posting here. You're by far the biggest joke on this entire site. You make Smooth Operator look like a genius.

my miss storm cat
11-04-2010, 02:05 PM
Indian Gracie is out...

chucklestheclown
11-04-2010, 05:25 PM
It was a giant field and she never got a chance to run. Please stop posting here. You're by far the biggest joke on this entire site. You make Smooth Operator look like a genius.

LOL...I'm betting Zenyatta too. Only a fool wouldn't.

chucklestheclown
11-04-2010, 05:33 PM
I don't think you do. Wertheimer et Frere and Andre Fabre aren't sending her to America if they're not sure what her deal is. I don't think she's going to win, but it's not because she ran badly in the Arc and 'they're throwing darts'.

If you are worried look at what they said immediately after. I'm not worried, she's a toss for me.

chucklestheclown
11-04-2010, 05:36 PM
Oh my god

Where is god? Is he/she/it busy handicapping? Shouldn't god already know who's going to win?

pweizer
11-04-2010, 05:43 PM
Indian Gracie is out...

Where did you see this?

Paul

Dahoss
11-04-2010, 05:58 PM
Where is god? Is he/she/it busy handicapping? Shouldn't god already know who's going to win?

Don't quit your day job.

chucklestheclown
11-04-2010, 06:04 PM
Don't quit your day job.

Good job with Rahystrada. Hope all your CD picks are that good.

my miss storm cat
11-04-2010, 06:10 PM
Where did you see this?

Paul

Sorry should have posted the link...

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/59700/indian-gracey-out-of-bc-juvenile-fillies

Dahoss
11-04-2010, 06:17 PM
Good job with Rahystrada. Hope all your CD picks are that good.

Didn't bet him actually. But thanks. Why don't you do everyone a favor and go play in traffic.

chucklestheclown
11-04-2010, 06:32 PM
Didn't bet him actually. But thanks. Why don't you do everyone a favor and go play in traffic.

I have a private machine.

Dahoss
11-04-2010, 06:34 PM
I'm the biggest jagoff on the internet.

FTFY

chucklestheclown
11-04-2010, 06:38 PM
FTFY

You're a Prince. You betting that nag too?

philcski
11-04-2010, 07:21 PM
Good job with Rahystrada. Hope all your CD picks are that good.

Maybe you should rewatch the race and take a look at the trip he got. Never actually got a chance to run thanks to the pinhead on his back.

CSC
11-05-2010, 08:27 AM
Euro Pick
Midday prefers a bit of give in the ground and it doesn’t look like she is going to get it today, at 6/5 she offers very little value. Plenty of legitimate chances in this race, Red Desire, Harmonious to name a few, respect both but I will go to France, the French have produced excellent females the past few years and, Plumania fits the bill in here, she should like the faster ground and will be forwardly placed, and one must always respect a Andre Fabre trained horse. Can see her going off from anywhere from 7-1 upwards to 10-1 today, which is excellent value, she is my best bet on today’s card. Back Plumania big at a price.

philcski
11-05-2010, 11:03 AM
Rightly So out. No reason given yet. AE's probably will have the opportunity to get in.

hockey2315
11-05-2010, 11:17 AM
Rightly So out. No reason given yet. AE's probably will have the opportunity to get in.

Can they be un-scratched at this point?

Another value killer.

hockey2315
11-05-2010, 11:32 AM
Zayat Stables' Rightly So (Read the Footnotes) has been scratched from today's GI Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint after an examination by the Breeders' Cup Veterinary Panel Friday morning. "The [veterinarians] came back to the barn and they looked at her again. They were not happy with the way she was moving and said they would not allow her to run today," said trainer Anthony Dutrow. The four-year-old GI Ballerina S. winner was installed as the 3-1 morning line favorite for the race. Dutrow added, "I am sure that whatever is wrong with Rightly So, we will get to the bottom of it and take care of it and then go on from there. It's disappointing, but this is all part of the game."

robfla
11-05-2010, 11:56 AM
Rightly So out. No reason given yet. AE's probably will have the opportunity to get in.

The AE's were previously scratched



Race 1 3 PLUTONIUM scratched

Race 2 10 OLYMPIST jockey changed to James Lopez

Race 3 3 DON'T PUT IT BACK scratched
5 LATIGO SHORE scratched

Race 4 2 STREAM CAT scratched

Race 5 No Changes

Race 6 15 NINA FEVER scratched

Race 7 13 RIGHTLY SO scratched
15 TIDAL POOL scratched
16 FIRST PASSAGE scratched

Race 8 1 INDIAN GRACEY scratched

Race 9 No Changes

Race 10 No Changes

Kasept
11-05-2010, 11:58 AM
Didn't bet him actually. But thanks. Why don't you do everyone a favor and go play in traffic.

The famed "CtC", as he was referred to at the Thoro-Graph board where he was banned long ago, has posted his last here.

Between the departures of the troll and the Anti-Semite, I've hit an exacta without placing a bet today...

ateamstupid
11-05-2010, 11:59 AM
The famed "CtC", as he was referred to at the Thoro-Graph board where he was banned long ago, has posted his last here.

Between the departures of the troll and the Anti-Semite, I've hit an exacta without placing a bet today...

:tro:

hockey2315
11-05-2010, 12:00 PM
The famed "CtC", as he was referred to at the Thoro-Graph board where he was banned long ago, has posted his last here.

Between the departures of the troll and the Anti-Semite, I've hit an exacta without placing a bet today...

Woohoooo

Dahoss
11-05-2010, 12:28 PM
Between the departures of the troll and the Anti-Semite, I've hit an exacta without placing a bet today...

:$::$:

Indian Charlie
11-05-2010, 12:43 PM
The famed "CtC", as he was referred to at the Thoro-Graph board where he was banned long ago, has posted his last here.

Between the departures of the troll and the Anti-Semite, I've hit an exacta without placing a bet today...

Not at all a complaint in any way, but I am real curious how you know that Chuckles was someone from the TG board?

IP?

Pedigree Ann
11-05-2010, 12:45 PM
Euro Pick
Midday prefers a bit of give in the ground and it doesn’t look like she is going to get it today, at 6/5 she offers very little value. Plenty of legitimate chances in this race, Red Desire, Harmonious to name a few, respect both but I will go to France, the French have produced excellent females the past few years and, Plumania fits the bill in here, she should like the faster ground and will be forwardly placed, and one must always respect a Andre Fabre trained horse. Can see her going off from anywhere from 7-1 upwards to 10-1 today, which is excellent value, she is my best bet on today’s card. Back Plumania big at a price.

And her best races have been at the left-turning course Saint-Cloud, as opposed to Longchamp and Chantilly, which are right-turning.

Kasept
11-05-2010, 01:12 PM
Not at all a complaint in any way, but I am real curious how you know that Chuckles was someone from the TG board?

IP?
He was Chuckles the Clown there. (And I believe still at Ragozin.) My patience is at an end with non-contributing buffoonery.

Indian Charlie
11-05-2010, 01:17 PM
He was Chuckles the Clown there. (And I believe still at Ragozin.) My patience is at an end with non-contributing buffoonery.

Frankly, you've been way too patient.

Morty, for instance!

Bigsmc
11-05-2010, 01:23 PM
He was Chuckles the Clown there. (And I believe still at Ragozin.) My patience is at an end with non-contributing buffoonery.

Is contributing buffoonery still okay?

Your darts are quite accurate today Mr Byk. Any truth to the rumor that the exacta could turn into a Super Hi 5 by the end of the weekend?

Loving Crider @ 8-1 here.....

ateamstupid
11-05-2010, 01:24 PM
Frankly, you've been way too patient.

Morty, for instance!

http://i400.photobucket.com/albums/pp86/shawnhutch2008/stop-snitching.jpg

FGFan
11-05-2010, 01:26 PM
http://i400.photobucket.com/albums/pp86/shawnhutch2008/stop-snitching.jpg

:D:p:{>:

cakes44
11-05-2010, 02:53 PM
Euro Pick
Midday prefers a bit of give in the ground and it doesn’t look like she is going to get it today, at 6/5 she offers very little value. Plenty of legitimate chances in this race, Red Desire, Harmonious to name a few, respect both but I will go to France, the French have produced excellent females the past few years and, Plumania fits the bill in here, she should like the faster ground and will be forwardly placed, and one must always respect a Andre Fabre trained horse. Can see her going off from anywhere from 7-1 upwards to 10-1 today, which is excellent value, she is my best bet on today’s card. Back Plumania big at a price.

I just don't understand the idea of Midday hating the firm ground. Did the turf at SA have any give last year?

slotdirt
11-05-2010, 03:23 PM
That's the way to start the Breeders Cup! Castellano almost takes down half the field, and Borel starts throwing punches!

ateamstupid
11-05-2010, 03:24 PM
Pinhead Fight!

Antitrust32
11-05-2010, 03:26 PM
omg why am I not watching this? Who won the marathon?

ateamstupid
11-05-2010, 03:28 PM
omg why am I not watching this? Who won the marathon?

Eldaafer. But that fight was easily more entertaining.

slotdirt
11-05-2010, 03:35 PM
Castellano making a right turn into about four horses. I'd have to say I'd take Borel in a bare knuckles winner's circle throwdown with Javier any day of the week.

the_fat_man
11-05-2010, 03:35 PM
How much better is Castellano than Velasquez?

cakes44
11-05-2010, 05:23 PM
Sweet ground-saving trip on Delightful Mary by Bridgmohan.

Rileyoriley
11-05-2010, 05:32 PM
Jess Jackson probably working on buying Awesome Feather now. DON'T SELL HER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:)

GPK
11-05-2010, 05:36 PM
Wait a second...there are Jews on Nerdy Trail. Well I wish I would have none sooner.

Indian Charlie
11-05-2010, 06:32 PM
DT has the highest population of Jews per capita anywhere in the world outside of Israel.

RockHardTen1985
11-05-2010, 06:58 PM
Is contributing buffoonery still okay?

Your darts are quite accurate today Mr Byk. Any truth to the rumor that the exacta could turn into a Super Hi 5 by the end of the weekend?

Loving Crider @ 8-1 here.....


I fear I could be next... Im trying to stay around though.

Indian Charlie
11-05-2010, 11:03 PM
I fear I could be next... Im trying to stay around though.

I think Byk secretly likes having you around on pins and needles!