Breeders Cup betting??

[SilverRP]

With the day less than 2 weeks out, just like every big day, my biggest problem is deciding not so much who to bet, but how to bet. I'm normally just a small win, exacta, pick 3 better, but would like to "get out of the box" so to speak.

I'm curious to know how many of you bet the Breeders Cup. What are the best bets? Do you stay with only Pick 3's and 4's? Is it better to stay with how you normally bet?

[RockHardTen1985]

With the day less than 2 weeks out, just like every big day, my biggest problem is deciding not so much who to bet, but how to bet. I'm normally just a small win, exacta, pick 3 better, but would like to "get out of the box" so to speak.

I'm curious to know how many of you bet the Breeders Cup. What are the best bets? Do you stay with only Pick 3's and 4's? Is it better to stay with how you normally bet?

I likely wont make any win or exacta bets. Maybe some triples with the 50 cent minimum. Pick 3 mainly. A horse I would bet to win, Ill press hard in pick 3's and try to really crush it. Even if its a favorite. Pick 4's also.

[hockey2315]

Formulate your opinion, and bet accordingly and as close to that opinion as possible.

[RockHardTen1985]

Formulate your opinion, and bet accordingly and as close to that opinion as possible.

I think thats pretty obvious. I think he is talking about what type of bets.
Is it bad strategy for me to say, I wont make any win/place bets?

[hockey2315]

I think thats pretty obvious. I think he is talking about what type of bets.
Is it bad strategy for me to say, I wont make any win/place bets?

The type of bets you make should be the ones that allow you to best maximize your opinion. It think that's pretty obvious. . .

It's always a bad strategy to make win/place bets.

[knickslions2]

I like win bets and exacta bets. Plenty of value in these races.

[Bigsmc]

With the day less than 2 weeks out, just like every big day, my biggest problem is deciding not so much who to bet, but how to bet. I'm normally just a small win, exacta, pick 3 better, but would like to "get out of the box" so to speak.

I'm curious to know how many of you bet the Breeders Cup. What are the best bets? Do you stay with only Pick 3's and 4's? Is it better to stay with how you normally bet?

Yes, why change anything in your handicapping becasue the purses are larger?

The only thing I do is allow myself a bit more bankroll than any other racing day. The wagering stays exactly the same.

Unless it at Santa Anita, then my bankroll shrinks to zero and I wager elsewhere.

[chucklestheclown]

Since you are asking I would suggest you do what you normally do on day one and branch out if you have any left on Saturday. But at least do a L.Classic/Classic double.

[cal828]

If you want to experiment with some of these multirace and multihorse bets then this would, in my opinion, be the time to do it with the lower minimum bets that are being offered. However, without some practice making these bets, you might not be as effective at constructing them as with bets that are more familiar to you.

[Linny]

A small bettor can have some fun with .50 TRI's and a even the $1 P3. Be sure to do your work ahead of time. Sit down after you have done your handicapping and look at the betting menu for each race. If you like (meaning ou have a strong opinion) 2 races in a row, maybe you can use them as the end, middle and start of P3's with the speading in the other legs. Races where you have horses you really dislike might be ripe for tri's using the survivors. This is especially so if you don't have solid opinions in the races before or after and a P3 is not an option.

Don't step too far out of your normal range because if your first couple of bets don't win, you will feel like you "blew too much money" already and then might miss decent winners. Since the payoffs in the BC races are often very big, you don't need to jump way up to make money. I had a signer on a dime super last year. Also, if you have a bad day (or two) you are likely to get turned off betting the Cup and then miss out on great opportunities in future years. I prefer to stay with my usual bet denomination and spread a bit more then usual.

[jms62]

In my opinion the rolling Pick 3 by far is the best play.

[justindew]

The type of bets you make should be the ones that allow you to best maximize your opinion. It think that's pretty obvious. . .

It's always a bad strategy to make win/place bets.

Why not just tell him to only make bets that win?

[Travis Stone]

I actually think the P3 is one of the worst plays out there, although at 50-cents it's a bit more manageable.

P3's can be bankroll eaters unless you focus, drill down and play narrow tickets. The tendency is for people to play tickets like: 3 x 3 x 5 for $45, when in reality three or four $45 tickets would be better spent on the P4. Not to mention a 3x3x5 in the BC is a thin play.

[hockey2315]

Why not just tell him to only make bets that win?

Oh great. . . you're back.

These threads are so worthless every time someone starts one. I have no idea how this guy should bet the Breeders' Cup. All I can tell him is how I would bet it, but the way I bet it is based on the types of opinions that I formulate on my own. Saying that pk3s are good bets if the guy's opinion is that some longshot can get in the tri or whatever isn't going to do him any good.

Look at the two posts before this - one praising the pk3 and one condemning it. They're both right, or both wrong. It's a good bet for some people, or for some opinions, but not others.

No bet is better or worse than another without considering what is being bet. The tri is not inherently better or worse than the Pk3 when you don't know what numbers are going to fill either one.

The win/place thing was just a shot at PG, who fails to understand why betting win/place is terrible despite my many attempts to explain it to him.

[RockHardTen1985]

I actually think the P3 is one of the worst plays out there, although at 50-cents it's a bit more manageable.

P3's can be bankroll eaters unless you focus, drill down and play narrow tickets. The tendency is for people to play tickets like: 3 x 3 x 5 for $45, when in reality three or four $45 tickets would be better spent on the P4. Not to mention a 3x3x5 in the BC is a thin play.


If you think your any sort of good handicapper, and have an opinion how is 3-3-5 thin?

[hockey2315]

3x3x5 in the BC is pretty thin in most cases. . . that's why you have to find horses to lean on/single.

[randallscott35]

3x3x5 in the BC is pretty thin in most cases. . . that's why you have to find horses to lean on/single.

Brett Farve thin.

[philcski]

Oh great. . . you're back.

These threads are so worthless every time someone starts one. I have no idea how this guy should bet the Breeders' Cup. All I can tell him is how I would bet it, but the way I bet it is based on the types of opinions that I formulate on my own. Saying that pk3s are good bets if the guy's opinion is that some longshot can get in the tri or whatever isn't going to do him any good.

Look at the two posts before this - one praising the pk3 and one condemning it. They're both right, or both wrong. It's a good bet for some people, or for some opinions, but not others.

No bet is better or worse than another without considering what is being bet. The tri is not inherently better or worse than the Pk3 when you don't know what numbers are going to fill either one.

The win/place thing was just a shot at PG, who fails to understand why betting win/place is terrible despite my many attempts to explain it to him.

I would disagree that Win/Place is always a terrible bet. Sometimes it works out to be a better choice. For example, the other day at Keeneland I liked a horse that was 3-1 ML and decided (a) the odds would likely go down on her from the ML and (b) the pick 3 could offer value because both the last leg was very difficult and the first leg potentially tough. I played a 5x1x8 pick 3, and with a $21.80 horse in the last it paid $212 for a buck. Ok, not bad for a 3-1 ML- I was certainly pleased. Well my instinct was wrong on her odds as she drifted up to 5.5-1 and paid $13 to win, so for the same $40 I would have gotten $260 despite having a good result in the last. Did I make the right bet based on my opinion? Yes. Did it work out great? Yes and no. Remember that in most jurisdictions (KY excluded) there is a significant takeout penalty for playing a pick 3 versus a WPS bet.

My best suggestion is if you like a horse that is double digits, bet it to win/place and be happy with the result, or press it with an exacta. If it's less than 10-1 pick 3's (or even doubles) make sense.

[randallscott35]

You must single somewhere.

[hockey2315]

I would disagree that Win/Place is always a terrible bet. Sometimes it works out to be a better choice. For example, the other day at Keeneland I liked a horse that was 3-1 ML and decided (a) the odds would likely go down on her from the ML and (b) the pick 3 could offer value because both the last leg was very difficult and the first leg potentially tough. I played a 5x1x8 pick 3, and with a $21.80 horse in the last it paid $212 for a buck. Ok, not bad for a 3-1 ML- I was certainly pleased. Well my instinct was wrong on her odds as she drifted up to 5.5-1 and paid $13 to win, so for the same $40 I would have gotten $260 despite having a good result in the last. Did I make the right bet based on my opinion? Yes. Did it work out great? Yes and no. Remember that in most jurisdictions (KY excluded) there is a significant takeout penalty for playing a pick 3 versus a WPS bet.

My best suggestion is if you like a horse that is double digits, bet it to win/place and be happy with the result, or press it with an exacta. If it's less than 10-1 pick 3's (or even doubles) make sense.

That's not what I'm saying. Obviously win bets alone are fine. . . obviously. Win PLUS place is terrible.

[jms62]

I recall reading somewhere that the P3's average in excess of 1K on a dollar ticket. How is that a bad bet?

[VOL JACK]

I would disagree that Win/Place is always a terrible bet. Sometimes it works out to be a better choice. For example, the other day at Keeneland I liked a horse that was 3-1 ML and decided (a) the odds would likely go down on her from the ML and (b) the pick 3 could offer value because both the last leg was very difficult and the first leg potentially tough. I played a 5x1x8 pick 3, and with a $21.80 horse in the last it paid $212 for a buck. Ok, not bad for a 3-1 ML- I was certainly pleased. Well my instinct was wrong on her odds as she drifted up to 5.5-1 and paid $13 to win, so for the same $40 I would have gotten $260 despite having a good result in the last. Did I make the right bet based on my opinion? Yes. Did it work out great? Yes and no. Remember that in most jurisdictions (KY excluded) there is a significant takeout penalty for playing a pick 3 versus a WPS bet.

My best suggestion is if you like a horse that is double digits, bet it to win/place and be happy with the result, or press it with an exacta. If it's less than 10-1 pick 3's (or even doubles) make sense.

:tro::tro:

As usual 80% of my handle will be Win, Doubles, and exactas.
Plenty of :$: to be made with good opinions on those bets on Cup day.
I'm am just not comfortable putting $100-200 into tri's,supers, and p3's on multiple races.
I might play a $200 p4 if I really like a sequence and think I can beat a heavy fav.
Id' love to make a DrugS like score this year.

[randallscott35]

:tro::tro:

As usual 80% of my handle will be Win, Doubles, and exactas.
Plenty of :$: to be made with good opinions on those bets on Cup day.
I'm am just not comfortable putting $100-200 into tri's,supers, and p3's on multiple races.
I might play a $200 p4 if I really like a sequence and think I can beat a heavy fav.
Id' love to make a DrugS like score this year.

I agree with doubles.

[RockHardTen1985]

I recall reading somewhere that the P3's average in excess of 1K on a dollar ticket. How is that a bad bet?

On this day or 2 days, its far and away the best bet. Its not even close. Chalk-Chalk-Chalk is an overlay most times because of the large fields and huge pools.

[RockHardTen1985]

:tro::tro:

As usual 80% of my handle will be Win, Doubles, and exactas.
Plenty of :$: to be made with good opinions on those bets on Cup day.
I'm am just not comfortable putting $100-200 into tri's,supers, and p3's on multiple races.
I might play a $200 p4 if I really like a sequence and think I can beat a heavy fav.
Id' love to make a DrugS like score this year.

Your handle seems like its going to be a lot bigger then mine this year. Good Luck VJ.

[philcski]

That's not what I'm saying. Obviously win bets alone are fine. . . obviously. Win PLUS place is terrible.

Again, depends. I liked Friendly Island some as a crazy longshot in the Sprint back in '06. Did I think he could win at 60-1? No, not really. Bet him across the board (and keyed my top choice Bordonaro in multi's & exotics), and he paid $50 to place and $32.80 to show. How would I have felt if I just bet him to win, even though that wasn't really my opinion?

However, what I think you are getting at, would betting Zenyatta or Goldikova win PLUS place this year be a poor wager? Of course.

[Travis Stone]

I recall reading somewhere that the P3's average in excess of 1K on a dollar ticket. How is that a bad bet?

The P6 averages six figures on a $2 ticket... it's all relative...

[Dahoss]

Again, depends. I liked Friendly Island some as a crazy longshot in the Sprint back in '06. Did I think he could win at 60-1? No, not really. Bet him across the board (and keyed my top choice Bordonaro in multi's & exotics), and he paid $50 to place and $32.80 to show. How would I have felt if I just bet him to win, even though that wasn't really my opinion?

However, what I think you are getting at, would betting Zenyatta or Goldikova win PLUS place this year be a poor wager? Of course.

I think what he is getting at is bet to win and then back it up with exactas with the horse you like for second instead of betting to place. It's one of the mistakes I make more often than I should. I like a big priced horse, it finishes second to a logical horse and I'm left with nothing because I didn't take a few extra dollars and back it up.

There was a thread, probably 3 or 4 years ago that dealt with something like this. The gist of it was it was better finacially to just put your horse under the favorite than bet the horse to place.

[RockHardTen1985]

I think what he is getting at is bet to win and then back it up with exactas with the horse you like for second instead of betting to place. It's one of the mistakes I make more often than I should. I like a big priced horse, it finishes second to a logical horse and I'm left with nothing because I didn't take a few extra dollars and back it up.

There was a thread, probably 3 or 4 years ago that dealt with something like this. The gist of it was it was better finacially to just put your horse over the favorite than bet the horse to place.

A thread does not make it right. If you like a big priced horse bet it w/p. Who says the chalk is always going to win?

[blackthroatedwind]

I think what he is getting at is bet to win and then back it up with exactas with the horse you like for second instead of betting to place. It's one of the mistakes I make more often than I should. I like a big priced horse, it finishes second to a logical horse and I'm left with nothing because I didn't take a few extra dollars and back it up.

There was a thread, probably 3 or 4 years ago that dealt with something like this. The gist of it was it was better finacially to just put your horse over the favorite than bet the horse to place.

It was " under " the favorite...not over.

I realize you know why, but for those that don't, it's just takeout dispersion.

[Dahoss]

A thread does not make it right. If you like a big priced horse bet it w/p. Who says the chalk is always going to win?

The thread examined 250 races. That is a pretty large sample. Obviously I wouldn't recommend JUST playing the favorite, but that was how the thread went.

I know you have no desire to look at other ways of doing things, but some might. Say you like a horse and are going to bet $20 win/place. You're better off playing $25 or $30 to win and then using the rest playing your horse second in exactas.

I used to bet win/place, but I almost never do anymore.

[RockHardTen1985]

The thread examined 250 races. That is a pretty large sample. Obviously I wouldn't recommend JUST playing the favorite, but that was how the thread went.

I know you have no desire to look at other ways of doing things, but some might. Say you like a horse and are going to bet $20 win/place. You're better off playing $25 or $30 to win and then using the rest playing your horse second in exactas.

I used to bet win/place, but I almost never do anymore.

I look at things different, and of course I have a desire to make $/more $. I just dont think its a lock system. You play it that way, then what happens if a bomb runs 1,3 and you can get $20p $12S..... Or something bigger like Phil said $50p $30s

[Dahoss]

It was " under " the favorite...not over.

I realize you know why, but for those that don't, it's just takeout dispersion.

My bad, that was what I meant. That's what I get for trying to do more than one thing at a time.

[blackthroatedwind]

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10605

[philcski]

I think what he is getting at is bet to win and then back it up with exactas with the horse you like for second instead of betting to place. It's one of the mistakes I make more often than I should. I like a big priced horse, it finishes second to a logical horse and I'm left with nothing because I didn't take a few extra dollars and back it up.

There was a thread, probably 3 or 4 years ago that dealt with something like this. The gist of it was it was better finacially to just put your horse under the favorite than bet the horse to place.

I think the longshot win + exacta underneath logicals is a great play and obviously the one I use the most. Net pool pricing has made it less valuable relative to just win + place than it used to. In my specific example I would have struck out on the exacta because Thor's Echo was nowhere near my tickets, but on a regular basis it's the smartest play, especially in jursidictions with cheap exacta takeout like KY or NY.

[Dahoss]

I look at things different, and of course I have a desire to make $/more $. I just dont think its a lock system. You play it that way, then what happens if a bomb runs 1,3 and you can get $20p $12S..... Or something bigger like Phil said $50p $30s

I know how you look at things. Nothing will change your mind after it's made up. But others might, which is why Hockey brought it up and I added to it.

Take the case Phil brought up. Say you bet $10 across the board on Friendly Island. You would have gotten back $414. But, if you bet $15 to win and then back wheeled for $1, you would have gotten back $477.70. Say you thought there were 5 horses that were also logical (the winner being one of them) you could have bet $20 win on Friendly Island and $2 exactas with Friendly Island underneath. The $2 exacta paid $955.40.

Obviously it isn't going to work out every single time, but in the long run, I'm confident it does.

[Scav]

I know how you look at things. Nothing will change your mind after it's made up. But others might, which is why Hockey brought it up and I added to it.

Take the case Phil brought up. Say you bet $10 across the board on Friendly Island. You would have gotten back $414. But, if you bet $15 to win and then back wheeled for $1, you would have gotten back $477.70. Say you thought there were 5 horses that were also logical (the winner being one of them) you could have bet $20 win on Friendly Island and $2 exactas with Friendly Island underneath. The $2 exacta paid $955.40.

Obviously it isn't going to work out every single time, but in the long run, I'm confident it does.

The back wheel is the most under utilized part of handicapping that most people never talk about. I always forget about it because like an idiot I just hit the WP button instead.

[Dahoss]

The back wheel is the most under utilized part of handicapping that most people never talk about. I always forget about it because like an idiot I just hit the WP button instead.

I make the same mistake, but not as much as I used to. Part of it is laziness and part of it is stubborness. Not a great combo. :D

[hockey2315]

If you're betting overlays there's no reason to back-up. . . you'll win more over time. Obviously I'll box the horse I like to win w/ the logical horses if I think it's a contentious enough race or if I think there's only one horse who can beat mine I'll play that exacta straight or both ways depending on price. I'm not backing up my 6 or 8-1 shots with exactas under the chalks, because I'm not going to jump off a bridge if I run second and I'm only cutting into my (perceived) advantage.

The bottom line is that hedging kills your edge if you have one.

Look at the contest JMS and I had. We both ended up up, but were down on place bets if I remember correctly. I think the worst time to bet to place is when you're trying to beat a big favorite. You're getting a deflated place pay-off when the chalk runs second, and your EV goes down on your opinion that the favorite was beatable.

I will say, though. that if you're going to bet the Breeders' Cup w/ more enthusiasm than you normally bet on a day-to-day or weekend-to-weekend basis, then some sort of hedging/backing up to cut down on the variance is fairly safe and acceptable.

[NTamm1215]

This is a good thread in general because there are so many options with regards to Breeders' Cup betting. I agree with the exacta under the logicals in lieu of a place bet.

Last year 6 of the 14 Breeders' Cup races featured "IRS" payoffs for 10 cent supers. 11 of them paid over $250. The late Pick 4 was three solid favorites and a 21-1 shot, that could rationally be construed as an overlay, and it paid $752, reduced a few hundred dollars after Quality Road's scratch.

It's important to have a plan to be diverse, and of course, figure out what to bet after you figure out who you like.

[chucklestheclown]

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=10605

Since I didn't post here back then I read this thread. It was very interesting and I think makes clear that on BC days you should never even place a win bet.