10/23: Belmont (NY Showcase Day-$19k C/O)

[Kasept]

Laid off action Friday on the heels of an exciting Thursday anchored by road map to mega-score in Brass Hat's Sycamore. Buff Bradley had presaged the 9yo's effort on Wednesday's ATR, and the only other horse that figured from my viewpoint was Attfield's Musketier. Those two, coupled with value inclusions Southern Anthem (Insane 50-1 ML; 54-1 at post) and Tajaweed (20-1 ML; 8-1 PT), lit the exotics tote for a $233 exacta, $800 tri and $6,912 super (all $1). Earlier at Belmont, the 4th kicked the day off in another of those delightful state bred ALW turf routes with a $350 trifecta bingo made possible by tossing the favorites. Caught an nice exacta in the nightcap and the late P4 for a slight $95. Hope you did well Thursday and are looking forward to NY bred Showcase Day at Belmont which usually produces some overlay returns. Hopefully, one of those overlays will be Dee Tee's Ausable Chasm in the Maid of the Mist! Heading to Belmont now and towards Kentucky after the races. ATR begins 'Live from Churchill' coverage Monday at 9am! Enjoy the weekend..


BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

What is supposed to be so great about City Train? At 2-1? State-bred turf route? What do we do team? Look elsewhere!

Most Likely: #7 Fortissi More 8-1 3rd
Best Value: #6 Mr. Hooker 15-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Thunder Chief 6-1 7th
Super Add: #4 John Wyatt 9-2 6th


2nd: 33rd Hudson-NY, 3+, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Endless Circle 2-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Driven by Success 9-5 4th
Best Value: #8 Be Bullish 6-1 2nd
Super Add: #5 General Maximus 4-1 WON ($12.20)


3rd: NY-MSW, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Stray Bullet 4-1 3rd
Next Best: #1 (POE) Life's Measure 5-2 6th
Exotics Use: #13 Soinlovewithuiam 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #6 SCR


4th: 17th Maid of the Mist-NY, 2yo-F, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Having a state bred affords taking shots in races like this, so Dee Tee will try again with Ausable Chasm today in event won by a daughter of her second dam (Beautiful America). Leparoux never gave the filly a chance to settle in the Touching Beauty, and I'm hopeful that Castro will suit her and sit a relaxed stalking trip tucked behind the early runners (1, 7, 10). A board hit is the goal..

Most Likely: #1 Sentimental Lass 5-2 WON ($5.30)
Next Best: #6 Upper East Sider 6-1 7th
Best Value: #5 Ausable Chasm 30-1 8th
Super Add: #3 Readygetsgold 20-1 4th


5th: NY-MSW, 2yo, 7f-T (P6, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #1 Raffie's Choice 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #2 Alarmist 7-2 8th
Exotics Use: #3 Check the Cities 3-1 5th
Super Add: #12 Adirondack Summer 6-1 WON ($8.50)


<$75 P4 Play::

2: 3-7
3: 1-5-13
4: 1-5-6-8
5: 1-2-3

2x3x4x3 = $72


6th: 32nd Mohawk-NY, 3+, 9f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Straight Story 7-5 2nd
Best Value: #4 Pocket Cowboys 5-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #1e Ownership entry 2-1 4th/10th
Super Add: #5 SCR


7th: 17th Sleepy Hollow-NY, 2yo, 7f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

If Bandbox is as good in his home state as he was in West Virginia, he'll be tough to beat. But there are some forward-looking players here..

Most Likely: #6 Bandbox 3-1 WON ($3.30)
Best Value: #1 Crea's Law 12-1 3rd
Next Best: #9 Hysterical Cat 6-1 8th
Super Add: #4 Luxury Appeal 5-1 2nd


8th: 32nd Iroquois-NY, F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #8 R Betty Graybull 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #6 Sapphire Sky 7-2 10th
Exotics Use: #10 Meese Rocks 9-2 WON ($10.40)
Super Add: #11 Lovely Lil 5-1 4th


9th:35th Empire Classic-NY, 3+, 9f (DD, Super)

What a terrific race..

Most Likely: #2 (POE) Friend or Foe 3-1 WON/6th ($4.60)
Next Best: #7 Stormy's Majesty 4-1 10th
Best Value: #8 Giant Moon 6-1 7th
Super Add: #5 Ichabad Crane 8-1 2nd


10th: 30th Ticonderoga-NY, F&M-9f-IT (Super)

Best Value: #8 Paraiba 12-1 8th
Next Best: #2 Chestoria 7-2 6th
Exotics Use: #1 You Go West Girl 3-1 WON ($8.40)
Super Add: #11 Chorus Music 8-1 2nd


<$100 P6 Play::

5: 1-2-3-12
6: 3
7: 1-6
8: 6-8
9: 2
10: 1-2-8

4x1x2x2x1x3 = 48 x $2 = $96


<$75 P4 Play::

7: 1-6
8: 6-8-10-11
9: 2-7-8
10: 1-2-8

2x4x3x3 = $72

$1 Pick 4 (3/6/8-10-2/6-1/5/12/13) Paid $101.00


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S; http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp

[Dahoss]

I'm not complaining, because General Maximus was just better than Be Bullish today. But I will never understand jockeys. Cohen quarter horses BB out of the gate to make the lead. Then when he makes it, he tries to slow them down. Then as horses come up to him, he asks again, but by the time he asks, General Maximus had gotten the jump.

How many times does he think he can ask the horse?

[hockey2315]

I'm not complaining, because General Maximus was just better than Be Bullish today. But I will never understand jockeys. Cohen quarter horses BB out of the gate to make the lead. Then when he makes it, he tries to slow them down. Then as horses come up to him, he asks again, but by the time he asks, General Maximus had gotten the jump.

How many times does he think he can ask the horse?

I find this extremely annoying as well - you give up your advantage of being on the lead if you let everyone else catch up.

[Dahoss]

I find this extremely annoying as well - you give up your advantage of being on the lead if you let everyone else catch up.

Yep and I don't even think it would have mattered in this case. Be Bullish doesn't like to win and I left a lot of money on the table by not covering him underneath. That's my mistake. But like you said, if your advantage is the front, use it.

[NTamm1215]

The Terranova Pick 3 was awfully light. Figures $690 on a parlay and pays $292. Not a redboard, I didn't have it.

[Fulla Sheets]

WTF was Jose Lezcano doing with Midnight Billy?

[ateamstupid]

WTF was Jose Lezcano doing with Midnight Billy?

The job Chavez was supposed to do with Spa City Fever.

[Gaines2b]

Nice job on P4, Steve.
And as usual, picks are structured for large possibilities.
Thanks.