Chuchill Post Positions

[The Indomitable DrugS]

A lot was made of how well horses breaking from the rail post did in the last BC held at Churchill. They took four of the five BC races held on dirt.

In general, post positions are a bigger deal on CD's turf course.

Horses with wide posts in turf races are more disadvantaged there than on most other turf courses. Going back as far as I can ...

Post 8: 161-for-1,774 (9.0% winners)
Post 9: 127-for-1,473 (8.6% winners)
Post 10: 83-for-1,082 (7.7% winners)
Post 11: 14-for-238 (5.9% winners)
Post 12: 2-for-152 (1.3% winners)
Post 13: 0-for-12
Post 14: 0-for-8

Posts 12 and outward are just 2-for-172. Both wins came at the distance of 8.5fs. One of the two winners won his next start at the same distance on the turf and paid $13.20 ... the other was a 1st time turfer who was switched to dirt and ran 4th at 36/1 in a Grade 2 stakes on dirt next out.

I'd be extremely happy if Goldikova draws post 14 in the BC Mile. Lure drew post 14 at CD in his bid for a BC Mile three peat in '94 .. and he ended up 9th beaten 9.5 lengths as the 4/5 favorite.

Tight Spot won the first 8 turf races of his career - he drew the 12 hole in the BC Mile at CD and faded to a share of 9th at 5/2 but was still named Champion turf horse that year.

I'm not saying it's a death sentence. North East Bound almost stole the Mile from the 14 hole at CD in 2000. However, he did clear the field before the first turn - and got away with an unpressured 47 4/5 half mile. He also won the Makers Mark Mile in his next turf start with a 108 Beyer and paid $13.80 to win.

Miss Alleged won the 1991 BC Turf from the 12 hole - that win came before the cutoff in the above stats. She won her next start in the Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup against males and paid $7.80 to win the following month.

At the very least - nothing is gift wrapped when you start out there on the CD lawn. You really have to earn it.

When you see those turf courses where the outer posts are no disadvantage - and sometimes even an advantage - you assume stuff like maybe the turns are banked a certain way to help the wides or maybe the ground is better the further off the rail you go .. not at Churchill.

[randallscott35]

Good info. Lets pray they don't ruin the track surface like they did last time.

[randallscott35]

Where was the rail in the above data?

[hockey2315]

How far back is as far as you can go? Do you have posts 1-7 handy?

[Thunder Gulch]

The data above indicates only the extreme outside are severely disadvantaged. Post 10 at 7.7% so it should be less than 10% if the field size is 10+.

[Indian Charlie]

Tight Spot won the first 8 turf races of his career - he drew the 12 hole in the BC Mile at CD and faded to a share of 9th at 5/2 but was still named Champion turf horse that year.



His post had nothing to do with his defeat.

Or maybe I should say it was not the primary cause of his defeat.

I was probably his biggest fan back then. I made a point of waiting for him to try turf, and when switched to turf, I bet him every single start he made up until the BC mile.

The reason I say that is to stress just how much I followed this horse.

To me, going into the mile, he was a toss because one, I felt that his best distances would be going from 9 to 10f, and two, he missed his prep race and if I recall he had missed some works as well. Come to think of it, I was pretty pissed off, as a fan of his, that he was being dropped from a 10f race to a flat mile. I'd rather have seen him go 12f at that point.

Also, his best weapon was his speed, and if he was allowed to cruise along in moderate fractions, he was next to impossible to beat. I didn't see that happening in the mile, especially with the outside draw.



To this day, if asked to list the top 5 turf horses that raced primarily in this country (that I've seen run that is), he'd be on that list.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The data above indicates only the extreme outside are severely disadvantaged. Post 10 at 7.7% so it should be less than 10% if the field size is 10+.

Avg field size for post 10 would be 10.38 - that means that post #10 should win at 9.63% - considering the thousand race plus sample size - it's clear that post 10 is at a disadvantage.

Avg field size for post 9 would be 10.01 - thus post 9 should win 9.99%

Avg field size for post 8 would be 9.67 - thus post 8 should win at 10.34%

Avg field size for post 11 would be 11.72 - thus post 11 should win at 8.53%

Avg field size for post 12 would be 12.13 - thus post 12 should win at 8.24%

Basically ....

Post 8: should win 10.34% - wins 9.0% (disadvantaged by 1.34%)

Post 9: should win 9.99% - wins 8.6% (disadvantaged by 1.39%)

Post 10: should win 9.63% - wins 7.7% (disadvantaged by 1.93%)

Post 11: should win 8.53% - wins 5.9% (disadvantaged by 2.63%)

Post 12: should win 8.24% - wins 1.3% (disadvantaged by 6.96%)

Post 13: should win 7.32% - wins 0%

Post 14: should win 7.14% - wins 0%

[cmorioles]

Avg field size for post 10 would be ...

What does "would be" mean? Was it the average field size, or are you guessing?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

What does "would be" mean? Was it the average field size, or are you guessing?

No - it's a calculation. No guessing

1,082 horses started from post 10 and the total number of horses who ran in those 1,082 races was 11,230.

[tjfla]

Drugs is this for the Turf or both the Turf and the Turf Mile?

[cmorioles]

No - it's a calculation. No guessing

1,082 horses started from post 10 and the total number of horses who ran in those 1,082 races was 11,230.

I figured, but would be wasn't clear to my slow mind.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Drugs is this for the Turf or both the Turf and the Turf Mile?

It would apply to all the turf races. Not distance specific.

If the right horse draws out there they'll still bet it.

The year Lure was 9th beaten 9.5 lengths at 4/5 in the Mile from post 14. Paradise Creek was 3rd beaten 3 lengths to Tiekkenan from post 13 at 4/5 odds in the Turf.

They made Gorella 3/1 from post 13 in the Mile the last time the BC was at CD and she got thumped.

[cmorioles]

It would apply to all the turf races. Not distance specific.

If the right horse draws out there they'll still bet it.

The year Lure was 9th beaten 9.5 lengths at 4/5 in the Mile from post 14. Paradise Creek was 3rd beaten 3 lengths to Tiekkenan from post 13 at 4/5 odds in the Turf.

They made Gorella 3/1 from post 13 in the Mile the last time the BC was at CD and she got thumped.

I find it very hard to believe post is much of a factor at 1 1/2 miles. The Mile, absolutely, but not the Turf. The sample size has to be extremely small. Lumping distances isn't a good idea.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I find it very hard to believe post is much of a factor at 1 1/2 miles. The Mile, absolutely, but not the Turf. The sample size has to be extremely small. Lumping distances isn't a good idea.

Well - 12 furlongs is 3 turns on the CD turf course... but yeah - very small sample size for that distance ... compared to the massive when lumped together.

12fs CD Turf

Post
1 5-for-23 (22%)
2 3-for-23 (13%)
3 3-for-23 (13%)
4 3-for-23 (13%)
5 1-for-23 (04%)
6 4-for-22 (18%)
7 2-for-19 (11%)
8 0-for-16 (00%)
9 1-for-13 (08%)
10 1-for-12 (08%)
11 0-for-6 (00%)
12 0-for-3 (00%)
13 0-for-2 (00%)

[zippyneedsawin]

A lot was made of how well horses breaking from the rail post did in the last BC held at Churchill. They took four of the five BC races held on dirt.

In general, post positions are a bigger deal on CD's turf course.

Horses with wide posts in turf races are more disadvantaged there than on most other turf courses. Going back as far as I can ...

Post 8: 161-for-1,774 (9.0% winners)
Post 9: 127-for-1,473 (8.6% winners)
Post 10: 83-for-1,082 (7.7% winners)
Post 11: 14-for-238 (5.9% winners)
Post 12: 2-for-152 (1.3% winners)
Post 13: 0-for-12
Post 14: 0-for-8

Posts 12 and outward are just 2-for-172. Both wins came at the distance of 8.5fs. One of the two winners won his next start at the same distance on the turf and paid $13.20 ... the other was a 1st time turfer who was switched to dirt and ran 4th at 36/1 in a Grade 2 stakes on dirt next out.

I'd be extremely happy if Goldikova draws post 14 in the BC Mile. Lure drew post 14 at CD in his bid for a BC Mile three peat in '94 .. and he ended up 9th beaten 9.5 lengths as the 4/5 favorite.

Tight Spot won the first 8 turf races of his career - he drew the 12 hole in the BC Mile at CD and faded to a share of 9th at 5/2 but was still named Champion turf horse that year.

I'm not saying it's a death sentence. North East Bound almost stole the Mile from the 14 hole at CD in 2000. However, he did clear the field before the first turn - and got away with an unpressured 47 4/5 half mile. He also won the Makers Mark Mile in his next turf start with a 108 Beyer and paid $13.80 to win.

Miss Alleged won the 1991 BC Turf from the 12 hole - that win came before the cutoff in the above stats. She won her next start in the Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup against males and paid $7.80 to win the following month.

At the very least - nothing is gift wrapped when you start out there on the CD lawn. You really have to earn it.

When you see those turf courses where the outer posts are no disadvantage - and sometimes even an advantage - you assume stuff like maybe the turns are banked a certain way to help the wides or maybe the ground is better the further off the rail you go .. not at Churchill.



post 10 for Goldikova.. I personally don't think it will be a problem for her.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

post 10 for Goldikova.. I personally don't think it will be a problem for her.

Basically - according to the numbers - in 1 out of every 50 or so turf races - a horse breaking from post position 10 is best but doesn't win solely because of its draw. There's a big sample size behind that.

She's basically starting with a bit of a disadvantage - sometimes they can work good trips out from there .. other times things happen where the tiny disadvantage turns into a much bigger one ... I don't think that draw is a big factor but it sure doesn't help her.

[JJP]

Goldikova is a go-against IMO. Bad post; who really was best in last year's Mile? When they go 45 1/5 and 1:08 and change, you really have to downgrade Goldikova's close to win. Gladatorius and Cowboy Cal were the pace setters and they finished 9th and 10th. Courageous Cat probably ran the best race.

Then you look at her form this year; she beats Paco Boy by a neck, a neck and a half length. They are basically even and Goldi will be 1-1 and Paco Boy 9-2 or so? I also think Gio Ponti will beat her. Looks like a great even money to play against.

[philcski]

Good info. Lets pray they don't ruin the track surface like they did last time.

I know it's been beaten to death but even though there was 4 winners with saddlecloth #1, the rail bias was overstated. Only Street Sense stayed on the rail the entire time (and all he did was become the first BCJ champ to win the Kentucky Derby.)

BCJF: Dreaming of Anna was a strong favorite and drifted 4 wide on the first turn and the 2nd and 3rd finishers ran outside for at least part of the race.
BCJ: Street Sense stayed on the rail, but the 2nd and 3rd place finishers rallied from far back in the middle of the track.
Sprint: Thor's Echo was 3w despite being the 1. Friendly Island rode the rail as the 2. Nightmare Affair was 3-4w most of the race.
Distaff: Round Pond was on the inside most of the race, but the next three were the 12,13, and 14 and finished on the middle of the track.
Classic: The entire superfecta was out in the middle of the track, and the winner was widest of all.

[Indian Charlie]

If there's one thing I'm confident of, it's that Gio Ponti won't win the mile.

[VOL JACK]

I know it's been beaten to death but even though there was 4 winners with saddlecloth #1, the rail bias was overstated. Only Street Sense stayed on the rail the entire time (and all he did was become the first BCJ champ to win the Kentucky Derby.)

BCJF: Dreaming of Anna was a strong favorite and drifted 4 wide on the first turn and the 2nd and 3rd finishers ran outside for at least part of the race.
BCJ: Street Sense stayed on the rail, but the 2nd and 3rd place finishers rallied from far back in the middle of the track.
Sprint: Thor's Echo was 3w despite being the 1. Friendly Island rode the rail as the 2. Nightmare Affair was 3-4w most of the race.
Distaff: Round Pond was on the inside most of the race, but the next three were the 12,13, and 14 and finished on the middle of the track.
Classic: The entire superfecta was out in the middle of the track, and the winner was widest of all.

there was no bias...that day
All 3 races on the undercard that day went wire2wire.
Which made me get off Street Sense and Circular Quay in the Juvy.
the rest of the card was fair.

[SundaySilence]

In general, post positions are a bigger deal on CD's turf course.

Horses with wide posts in turf races are more disadvantaged there than on most other turf courses. Going back as far as I can ...

Post 8: 161-for-1,774 (9.0% winners)
Post 9: 127-for-1,473 (8.6% winners)
Post 10: 83-for-1,082 (7.7% winners)
Post 11: 14-for-238 (5.9% winners)
Post 12: 2-for-152 (1.3% winners)
Post 13: 0-for-12
Post 14: 0-for-8



2 for 2 today, both chalk. Any idea how many of the other 152 went off favored ?