Paddy O to Classic O

[tjfla]

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20101021/SPORTS1405/101021033/-1/groupblogs/Horse-racing-Paddy-O-Prado-to-run-in-America-s-richest-race


Love to see the odds on him.

[NTamm1215]

Great decision. He has an excellent chance to run last.

[RockHardTen1985]

Great decision. He has an excellent chance to run last.

Bold.

[hockey2315]

He's obviously pretty unlikely to hit the board, but I can't really fault their reasoning. They better hope it pours.

[RockHardTen1985]

He's obviously pretty unlikely to hit the board, but I can't really fault their reasoning. They better hope it pours.

The reasson is like I said 4 days ago. He cant compete in the turf, so why not take a wild shot for a bigger purse?
It says so much about American Racing. He is 100% clearly our best 3yr old turf horse. Its really pathetic.

[knickslions2]

He has no shot in this race unless its a monsoon

[Port Conway Lane]

What is so great about him on a sloppy track ?

[RockHardTen1985]

What is so great about him on a sloppy track ?

LOL nothing... They are all making his plod run in the Derby into something.

[the_fat_man]

You're all forgetting the BIG ASS factor. Romans has the biggest ASS (luck) in racing this side of Nick Zito. Look at all the rail trips his winners got @ SAR.

Is it so far fetched that:

a) it rains torrentially
b) a few horses go down in the race
c) those that stay up get ridiculously wide trips
d) POP skims the rail and wins going away

stranger things have happened and I'd think twice before dismissing ASS LUCK the size of Romans' :rolleyes:

[knickslions2]

LOL nothing... They are all making his plod run in the Derby into something.

Now now look at him again and you'll see he is good in the slop.

[dalakhani]

Why can't he hit the board? He loves the track and he has improved since the last time he ran on it.

[RockHardTen1985]

Now now look at him again and you'll see he is good in the slop.

I know, that 1 race makes him good. Kinda like MTB good, right?

[Port Conway Lane]

Why can't he hit the board? He loves the track and he has improved since the last time he ran on it.

I'm not so sure there is any evidence he loves the track or the slop. Both starts at Churchill were in the slop and the one out of the money was his debut sprinting.
He most definitely has improved.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

PoP has no shot in a totally wide open and sub-par edition of the BC Classic.

He would be better served in the Turf mile - the Turf - or the Dirt Mile.

His big turn move in the Derby came in a 27.07 fourth 1/4 mile - it was an optical illusion. Maybe not as much of an optical illusion as Ice Box and Make Music For Me's big late moves through a 52.87 last half mile ... but still. He showed his true dirt colors in the Preakness.

The 2010 Kentucky Derby basically consisted of two races. An absolutely strong dash to the half mile pole in brilliant time over a slower than par track .. and a sinking ship final half mile of pure stagger.

The top five finishers after 6fs were:
1. Conveyance
2. Sidney's Candy
3. Noble's Promise
4. Super Saver
5. Discreetly Mine

Just pretend the last half mile of that race never even happened and everyone would be better off for it.

Make Music For Me went from 20th beaten 24 lengths after six furlongs - to 4th beaten 4.75 lengths at the wire. If that POS can make up 19.25 lengths in the final half mile .. you know the pace fig wasn't lying. That horse had never been more than 5 lengths off of the early pace in his career - and Rosario had him 24.75 lengths back and in last after just a quarter mile. Really smart ride as it played out.

[Travis Stone]

I don't blame them. I won't bet him, but I don't blame them... and I'm pleased to get another body in the race to help juice those exotics if some fun stuff happens.

[RockHardTen1985]

PoP has no shot in a totally wide open and sub-par edition of the BC Classic.

He would be better served in the Turf mile - the Turf - or the Dirt Mile.

His big turn move in the Derby came in a 27.07 fourth 1/4 mile - it was an optical illusion. Maybe not as much of an optical illusion as Ice Box and Make Music For Me's big late moves through a 52.87 last half mile ... but still. He showed his true dirt colors in the Preakness.

The 2010 Kentucky Derby basically consisted of two races. An absolutely strong dash to the half mile pole in brilliant time over a slower than par track .. and a sinking ship final half mile of pure stagger.

The top five finishers after 6fs were:
1. Conveyance
2. Sidney's Candy
3. Noble's Promise
4. Super Saver
5. Discreetly Mine

Just pretend the last half mile of that race never even happened and everyone would be better off for it.

Make Music For Me went from 20th beaten 24 lengths after six furlongs - to 4th beaten 4.75 lengths at the wire. If that POS can make up 19.25 lengths in the final half mile .. you know the pace fig wasn't lying. That horse had never been more than 5 lengths off of the early pace in his career - and Rosario had him 24.75 lengths back and in last after just a quarter mile. Really smart ride as it played out.

When you speak people listen.

[Cannon Shell]

That Zenyatta is sure scaring them off. Guys are lining up to run turf horses against her...

Personally I think drugs is right. The dirt mile is hardly a stellar field and he would have a big shot on the cutback. I still can't believe musket man isnt running in the mile. That race was made for horses like him.

[Coach Pants]

Doubt it rains. It's drier than Ann Moss' hoo ha here.

[Indian Charlie]

The reasson is like I said 4 days ago. He cant compete in the turf, so why not take a wild shot for a bigger purse?
It says so much about American Racing. He is 100% clearly our best 3yr old turf horse. Its really pathetic.

He clearly is not our best 3yo turf horse.

Or, better put, it's not clear at all he's our best 3yo turf horse.

[Indian Charlie]

I don't know. I think it is conceivable that Ploddy slow Ploddo could have cashed a check in the Turf race.

I don't see him finishing in the top 5-6 in the Classic. Though I guess we should wait to see the actual field.

[RockHardTen1985]

He clearly is not our best 3yo turf horse.

Or, better put, it's not clear at all he's our best 3yo turf horse.

LOLOLOL... I hate POP, been clear about it. Who is even close to him?

[Coach Pants]

no One. Nunya First Said It Dur

[Indian Charlie]

LOLOLOL... I hate POP, been clear about it. Who is even close to him?

Potentially, either of the two Sadler candy horses.

Certainly at 9f or less, Sidney's Candy would destroy Ploddy so Slowdo.

[Dahoss]

Potentially, either of the two Sadler candy horses.

Certainly at 9f or less, Sidney's Candy would destroy Ploddy so Slowdo.

I don't think Paddy O Prado is much either. But, at the same time, I'm sort of surprised at how Sidney's Candy has become such a revered turf horse based on one race where he beat nothing.

I know you aren't really saying it, but I've seen it on boards for the last few weeks. I've even seen some that like him in the Mile. I'd like to see him run another good race on turf before crowning him yet and going into the mile without a prep doesn't bode well for him IMO.

[Indian Charlie]

I don't think Paddy O Prado is much either. But, at the same time, I'm sort of surprised at how Sidney's Candy has become such a revered turf horse based on one race where he beat nothing.

I know you aren't really saying it, but I've seen it on boards for the last few weeks. I've even seen some that like him in the Mile. I'd like to see him run another good race on turf before crowning him yet and going into the mile without a prep doesn't bode well for him IMO.

I'm just saying that it really isn't much of a stretch to say that SC might be the better turf horse. Yeah, he beat nothing, but you can say that about Ploddy el Slowmo too.

And, unlike with el Slowmo, SC might be an awesome horse on turf. He certainly has more upside to him.

I agree on the lack of prep. Something smells fishy there.

The mile is by miles the most interesting race on the card.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Paddy O' Prado is a very respectable horse as far as 3yo North American turf males go relative to what we've seen in that division since the days of Kitten's Joy and Artie Schiller.

[knickslions2]

I know, that 1 race makes him good. Kinda like MTB good, right?

Look deeper my friend

[randallscott35]

Since I'm not impressed with the Classic division I think this is the right decision.

[hockey2315]

Pretty sure they're paying more for SC than was offered for Paddy. . . Not sure either are worth it.

Hossy - I'm probably one of the people you had in mind w/ the SC thing. It's not that I think he's a good bet in the mile (he can't super high, right?), but the chance of him freaking or just being that good and beating the chalk if she's off her game seems more likely than Paco Boy beating her. Have to do more homework, though.

[Sightseek]

I actually like the decision.

[tjfla]

I liked the part that said he WILL have a 4 yr old campaign.

Anyone wanna take a stab at his odds?

[Smooth Operator]

Paddy O' Prado is a very respectable horse as far as 3yo North American turf males go relative to what we've seen in that division since the days of Kitten's Joy and Artie Schiller.


Disgraceful that this country can't consistently produce turfers which can compete with the Euros


We're hell at churning out distance-challenged dirt speedballs, tho.............

[NTamm1215]

There are about 8-9 probables in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Does Paddy O' Prado have a very good chance against horses like Behkabad or Workforce? Not really, but to say that he has "no chance" or doesn't stack up even in a small way is foolish.

His Preakness is a much better indication of his dirt ability than his Derby in my opinion and this decision is foolish. I'll be absolutely stunned if he's in the superfecta.

[randallscott35]

There are about 8-9 probables in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Does Paddy O' Prado have a very good chance against horses like Behkabad or Workforce? Not really, but to say that he has "no chance" or doesn't stack up even in a small way is foolish.

His Preakness is a much better indication of his dirt ability than his Derby in my opinion and this decision is foolish. I'll be absolutely stunned if he's in the superfecta.

5 million reasons, I agree he has no chance but damned if the Classic doesn't look like a Grade 2 this year.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

top royelle in her day would crush them all

[geeker2]

Dale was on ATR

Sounded like he would be happy with a 2nd or 3rd as it would help his post racing career. He didn't sound like 1st was that realistic. Said he thought winning the Turf race would not do that much for his stallion fees...but a good effort in the Classic would.

[randallscott35]

Dale was on ATR

Sounded like he would be happy with a 2nd or 3rd as it would help his post racing career. He didn't sound like 1st was that realistic. Said he thought winning the Turf race would not do that much for his stallion fees...but a good effort in the Classic would.

Not unlike his handshake deal with Frankel at Lonestar to follow Zapper around the track and collect for second.

[NTamm1215]

Not unlike his handshake deal with Frankel at Lonestar to follow Zapper around the track and collect for second.

Does your comedy act travel?

[randallscott35]

Does your comedy act travel?

Do you have a memory? This is not news.

[NTamm1215]

Do you have a memory? This is not news.

I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. Was this story posted in the Enquirer?

[randallscott35]

I have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. Was this story posted in the Enquirer?

Talked about in 2004 but after Frankel died, more came out about it...whether it was Ramsey or Romans, the impact is the same. This is a Haskin article
http://cs.bloodhorse.com/blogs/horse-racing-steve-haskin/archive/2010/07/13/the-ghost-and-mr-frankel.aspx

[Dahoss]

Hossy - I'm probably one of the people you had in mind w/ the SC thing. It's not that I think he's a good bet in the mile (he can't super high, right?), but the chance of him freaking or just being that good and beating the chalk if she's off her game seems more likely than Paco Boy beating her. Have to do more homework, though.

I actually didn't even know you liked him. I was thinking about another board. I just get skeptical with run off performances like his, especially on turf.

[Cannon Shell]

Disgraceful that this country can't consistently produce turfers which can compete with the Euros


We're hell at churning out distance-challenged dirt speedballs, tho.............

The 2 best euro sires of recent times, Sadlers Wells and Danehill are both American breds, born in KY.

[RockHardTen1985]

There are about 8-9 probables in the Breeders' Cup Turf. Does Paddy O' Prado have a very good chance against horses like Behkabad or Workforce? Not really, but to say that he has "no chance" or doesn't stack up even in a small way is foolish.

His Preakness is a much better indication of his dirt ability than his Derby in my opinion and this decision is foolish. I'll be absolutely stunned if he's in the superfecta.

Nick-
What race has he run that puts him within 5 lenghts of Workforce? I dont think its foolish at all to say he had 0 chance in the Turf. I honestly might be more stunned if he went top 4 in the turf then in the Classic, where IMO its the big 4 and EVERYONE ELSE, and what are the odds that everyone of the big 4 def. fire?

[NTamm1215]

Nick-
What race has he run that puts him within 5 lenghts of Workforce? I dont think its foolish at all to say he had 0 chance in the Turf. I honestly might be more stunned if he went top 4 in the turf then in the Classic, where IMO its the big 4 and EVERYONE ELSE, and what are the odds that everyone of the big 4 def. fire?

Go watch the Preakness again. He's not a dirt horse, it's simple. Workforce won what was billed as one of the weakest Arcs in years. He's not some invincible force from Europe. Behkabad is a nice horse too but these horses are not nearly as highly regarded as the Euros we had in the 2005-2009 Turf editions.

He plugged along for third in a historically terrible Derby run over a quagmire where he got a spectacular pace setup. His dirt ability was exposed in Maryland and I can't see why that was a fluke.

[RockHardTen1985]

Go watch the Preakness again. He's not a dirt horse, it's simple. Workforce won what was billed as one of the weakest Arcs in years. He's not some invincible force from Europe. Behkabad is a nice horse too but these horses are not nearly as highly regarded as the Euros we had in the 2005-2009 Turf editions.

He plugged along for third in a historically terrible Derby run over a quagmire where he got a spectacular pace setup. His dirt ability was exposed in Maryland and I can't see why that was a fluke.

So we agree that he is impossible on dirt, and you just give him more credit then I do on turf. Fair enough. Im wrong a lot with these types, like Gio Ponti I have lost a lot trying to beat POP. Last summer at Toga when someone on DT told me he was a lock, I lost a lot of $ chasing him. Maybe thats why I hate him and Im being stubburn.

[Travis Stone]

Go watch the Preakness again.

Did anyone who ran well in the Derby run well in the Preakness though?

I understand their decision, however, with six horses in the Turf, I think you take your shot there.

[NTamm1215]

Did anyone who ran well in the Derby run well in the Preakness though?

I understand their decision, however, with six horses in the Turf, I think you take your shot there.

The correlation between the horses that ran well in the Derby and their poor efforts in the Preakness is that basically they all stink, were beneficiaries of strong pace setups or positive trips, or loved slop.

[Merlinsky]

Did anyone who ran well in the Derby run well in the Preakness though?

I understand their decision, however, with six horses in the Turf, I think you take your shot there.

Couldn't it be argued that even though he didn't hit the board, given what Lookin' at Lucky went through, he "ran well" as far as the Derby was concerned? A lot of horses in his situation would've either given up or tried and fallen completely apart because they didn't have the goods to overcome the obstacles. He kept trying and got a lot farther than you'd expect.