10/20: Belmont Park (4th-9th); Keeneland (Late P4)

[Kasept]

BELMONT PARK


POST-SCRATCHES


4th: MSW, 3+, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

De Price has not only run races good enough to win, he's run races good enough to win STAKES! It's remarkable, and a terrible indication of his liklihood to breakthrough anywhere, because he is a horse that refuses to pass a leader. These kind of horses can be tricked into winning sometimes through rides that get them to the wire before they have a chance to find a leader type to get behind. Edgar Prado gets a chance today, and maybe he can cajole this talented but maddening Aldebaran colt to a win, but you are obligated to look for alternatives to him as win candidates and multi-race includes..

Best Value: #4 Avenging Spirit 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #5 De Price 1-1 3rd
Exotics Use: #2 Cinnamon Beach 10-1 4th
Super Add: #6 Sunrise Smarty 4-1 WON ($7.40)


5th: The Scoot, F&M-3+, 10f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Queen Martha 3-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Daveron 7-2 WON ($7.70)
Best Value: #6 Mystic Miracle 12-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Liberally 6-1 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 3-5 with 3-5-6-7 with 1-3-5-6-7-8 with 1-3-5-6-7-8 (2x3x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)


6th: NY-MSW, F&M-3+, 7f-T (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Considerate 7-2 WON ($5.60)
Best Value: #5 Strikealinethruit 12-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Nice and Naughty 3-1 7th
Super Add: #9 Rennina 8-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-5) Paid $16.70
$1 Trifecta (4-5-9) Paid $100.50


7th: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Timuquana 5-2 5th
Best Value: #8 Truffles 5-1 8th
Next Best: #1 Cedar Grove 7-2 WON ($11.60)
Super Add: #6 Gorgelicious 8-1 4th


8th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 8.5f-T (DD)

Most Likely: #7 Chick in Slacks 4-1 WON ($9.30)
Next Best: #1a (POE) Song for Pupcake 2-1 4th/2nd
Exotics Use: #6 Proven Right 10-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Guiseppina 8-1 8th


9th: CLM/N1Y, 3+, 6f (Super)

Best Value: #5 Lookin at Her 4-1 2nd
Next Best: #2 The Zipster 5-2 WON ($3.50)
Exotics Use: #7 SCR
Super Add: #9 Four Star General 15-1 6th


<$75 P4 Play::

6: 3-4-5-9
7: 4
8: 1-6-7
9: 2-4-5-6-7-9

4x1x3x6 = $72



KEENELAND


POST-SCRATCHES


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 9f (.50 P4/P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Fantasma 7-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Deceive 9-2 10th
Next Best: #1 (POE) Beautiful Song 4-1 WON ($10.20)
Super Add: #8 Lone Tigress 12-1 12th


7th: CLM/N2L, 3+, 8.5f (.50 P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Trippo 9-2 3rd
Best Value: #4 Nikki's Sandcastle 10-1 5th
Next Best: #3 Perfect Edge 5-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Threeforall 15-1 10th


8th: ALW/N2L, 2yo-F, 1m-T (DD, Super)

Best Value: #10 Bellaridge 10-1 2nd
Next Best: #11 Holidaysatthefarm 3-1 WON ($6.60)
Exotics Use: #9 Catch That Kitten 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 A Brilliant Idea 5-2 6th


9th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 7f (Super, Super Hi-5)

Most Likely: #9 Au Dixie 3-1 2nd
Next Best: #4 Lady Symphony 7-2 10th
Best Value: #3 Sa Da Ve 5-1 12th
Exotics Use: #12 Umgababa 10-1 5th
Super Add: #2 Jazz Dancer 20-1 7th


<$75 P4 Play::

6: 1-3-6
7: 3-4-6-7-9
8: 9-10-11
9: 3-4-9

3x5x3x3 = 135 x .50 = $67.50


Good luck!
Steve

[Kasept]

BEL SCR/CHG'S (http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/BEL-changes.asp)

[Kasept]

KEE SCR/CHG'S (http://www.keeneland.com/racing/Lists/Scratches/AllItemsalt.aspx)

[ateamstupid]

What was with that flash in the 2nd? 9 went from 15-1 to 3-1 and the 7 went from 5-1 to 6-5 in one flash with about 10 minutes to post. Not sure I've ever seen that at NYRA.

[knickslions2]

5th: The Scoot, F&M-3+, 10f-IT (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Queen Martha 3-1 7th
Next Best: #3 Daveron 7-2 WON
Best Value: #6 Mystic Miracle 12-1 5th
Super Add: #7 Liberally 6-1 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 3-5 with 3-5-6-7 with 1-3-5-6-7-8 with 1-3-5-6-7-8 (2x3x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)

Steve you should know better than to leave a D'Oro horse out of these:)

[Kasept]

Steve you should know better than to leave a D'Oro horse out of these:)

I cannot for the life of me strike up a successful, uniform, coherent approach to these .10 supers.. It's frustrating. It isn't costing a lot, and one hit in about 8-10 should cover losses, but until I strike upon a format that works, I'm tearing my hair out.

[lazytom]

steve- i'm laughing because you always say that after you play that 10cent super bet -

[jms62]

I cannot for the life of me strike up a successful, uniform, coherent approach to these .10 supers.. It's frustrating. It isn't costing a lot, and one hit in about 8-10 should cover losses, but until I strike upon a format that works, I'm tearing my hair out.

Can I suggest a 5 horse Box for 12.00

[cal828]

Steve, why don't we do some dime super contests with the race of the day. There are some pretty inventive people here that can show us some ways to bet these things.

[Kasept]

steve- i'm laughing because you always say that after you play that 10cent super bet -

I just can't get to the bottom of them. I know there's a way to approach them and I'll find a workable format.

[Kasept]

Can I suggest a 5 horse Box for 12.00

I don't know. The problem with 5 horse box is that ANYONE can finish 4th in most races. Yesterday at BEL there was the Lotruglio 100-1+ 'Babe' horse that was 4th and made the play work. Doubt you catch that horse in the 5 horse box. And of course with a box in general you are placing equal weight that any of the 5 can win. Is that really what you want? I think you need to key off 1 or 2 horses at the top of the play and then fan out and drop the "ALL" net in the bottom rung.

[Kasept]

Steve, why don't we do some dime super contests with the race of the day. There are some pretty inventive people here that can show us some ways to bet these things.

We can do that... Will have the ROTD Contest do Supers when there is at least 8 horse fields!

[atolunch]

If you decide to do the Super contest, can I suggest a $36 budget? That give the flex for a 5 horse box if you're so inclined, as well as a multitude of key options and the flex to hit the All button. Many of those with 8+ horses in a race can be signers as well for the .10 Super wager.

Its one of my favorite wagers, FWIW.

[jms62]

I don't know. The problem with 5 horse box is that ANYONE can finish 4th in most races. Yesterday at BEL there was the Lotruglio 100-1+ 'Babe' horse that was 4th and made the play work. Doubt you catch that horse in the 5 horse box. And of course with a box in general you are placing equal weight that any of the 5 can win. Is that really what you want? I think you need to key off 1 or 2 horses at the top of the play and then fan out and drop the "ALL" net in the bottom rung.

Problem being when the high priced horse doesn't finish 4'th.. Papertrade it for awhile and I think you will hit around 20-25%.. You are fishing for the pick occasional score