Why Won't Quality Road Win The Classic?

[tanner12oz]

i started looking at stuff today for the classic and so based upon quick analysis i like quality road...not sold on zenyatta (if you disagree take it to ya zenyatta thread) lookin at lucky has issues, rail trip has issues...lots of question marks out there....quality road seems like hes gonna be healthy, run his race and hit the wire first...at favorable odds...i expect 6/1-8/1 ballpark

[freddymo]

Yep and well pickeled to boot

[knickslions2]

i started looking at stuff today for the classic and so based upon quick analysis i like quality road...not sold on zenyatta (if you disagree take it to ya zenyatta thread) lookin at lucky has issues, rail trip has issues...lots of question marks out there....quality road seems like hes gonna be healthy, run his race and hit the wire first...at favorable odds...i expect 6/1-8/1 ballpark

Can't see it. Its Zenyatta, Blame and Lucky coming down the stretch.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Better be concrete.

[RockHardTen1985]

i started looking at stuff today for the classic and so based upon quick analysis i like quality road...not sold on zenyatta (if you disagree take it to ya zenyatta thread) lookin at lucky has issues, rail trip has issues...lots of question marks out there....quality road seems like hes gonna be healthy, run his race and hit the wire first...at favorable odds...i expect 6/1-8/1 ballpark

Like last year, Ill be using 2 horses to end all pick 3's and 4's.... Z and QR.

[knickslions2]

Like last year, Ill be using 2 horses to end all pick 3's and 4's.... Z and QR.

You really think QR can win this? Unless there is a major change in who will be there I will be surprised.

[RockHardTen1985]

You really think QR can win this? Unless there is a major change in who will be there I will be surprised.

Yea I do. I think the other speeds are horrible, he will sit 3rd or 4th and I dont see it being that hot up front. Haynesfield is not going 22.3-46... He is going more like 48, just crawling.... QR gives them the slip turning for home, then is he good enough?

[Danzig]

blame beat him at 1 1/8th, i don't see a different result when it's longer and they're talking about building QR's stamina.

[JohnGalt1]

Not if he goes psycho at the gate.

[knickslions2]

Yea I do. I think the other speeds are horrible, he will sit 3rd or 4th and I dont see it being that hot up front. Haynesfield is not going 22.3-46... He is going more like 48, just crawling.... QR gives them the slip turning for home, then is he good enough?

The pace will still be pretty good up front and the 1 1/4 seems too long for him.

[classhandicapper]

I don't think we can tell until we see the final entries, post position draw, and quite possibly even how the track is playing. There was an inside bias at CD a few years ago that impacted the results.

I think it's fair to say that 10F is unlikely to be his optimal distance and the typical BC field will be so loaded with quality speed/pressers that QR is going to find himself in deep waters in the last furlong. However, he wasn't so abysmal at 10F last year to think he couldn't win if the race comes up weaker than expected or he makes the lead easier than expected on a track that's carrying speed.

He was a short and rushed horse for the Travers, but carried his speed a little better the next time despite losing to Summer Bird who was an excellent and peaking rival at the time. In addition, horses without the stamina to get 10f as 3YOs sometimes develop it as 4YOs.

Finally, in his loss to Blame this year I think there is some evidence that the rail was not the best place to be that day. It wasn't until Blame swung out that he wore down QR late while QR was still inside.

Personally, I'm probably going to play against him at the probable odds and likely pace scenario, but I don't hate him as much as some people.

[NTamm1215]

Him not being around is helping everyone forget how bad QR's Woodward was. He stalked the pace then had quite the laborious finish while pulling away from a group that included 3 horses who have been absolutely pummeled in their next start.

He's going to be an underlay in the BCC and horses like Morning Line, First Dude, Haynesfield, Espoir City (while not having serious win chances) are going to make his job a lot tougher.

[RockHardTen1985]

Him not being around is helping everyone forget how bad QR's Woodward was. He stalked the pace then had quite the laborious finish while pulling away from a group that included 3 horses who have been absolutely pummeled in their next start.

He's going to be an underlay in the BCC and horses like Morning Line, First Dude, Haynesfield, Espoir City (while not having serious win chances) are going to make his job a lot tougher.

Your naming horses who have no problem with 24-48 splits. There is no crazy speed horse thats going to duel him out in this spot. When does he not rate? Ok his finish in the Whitney sucked, still good enough for a big beyer.... Did he rate though or did he runoff?

[hockey2315]

Quality Road isn't the same horse that he once was. He could've been really, really good, but they've never been able to keep him 100% healthy. He won't be a factor.

[RockHardTen1985]

Quality Road isn't the same horse that he once was. He could've been really, really good, but they've never been able to keep him 100% healthy. He won't be a factor.

For someone who admits to a horrible cold streak, mostly because of bad opinions this is a bit bold. Lets be realistic. Another neck and he is the 3-1 or less, SECOND CHOICE. Now he gets gunned down by Blame, and hes going to be at least 5 or 6-1.

[hockey2315]

For someone who admits to a horrible cold streak, mostly because of bad opinions this is a bit bold. Lets be realistic. Another neck and he is the 3-1 or less, SECOND CHOICE. Now he gets gunned down by Blame, and hes going to be at least 5 or 6-1.

I just noticed this comment. First off, my coldest opinions are better than your best. . . Anyways - I was being self deprecating in that post so as not to look overly douchey when essentially redboarding.

Let's be realistic? Have you ever been realistic?

It's not about the neck loss to Blame. It's about the fact that he couldn't win there with an easy lead, and that he came back to lumber home against a field that would make even John Shireffs blush. It's about the fact that a supposedly healthy horse--who has never been particularly sound in his life--is being trained up to a race that's at a distance beyond what is optimal for him (the 100% QR at Gulfstream would have no problem with the distance) against a field that will have more speed in it than when he spit the bit in the Whitney. If you think a three point odds jump from what he probably was pre-Whitney (he might be higher if people wise up) and what he'll be now after all that has happened is a fair price, by all means go ahead and bet. I'm a self proclaimed Zenyatta hater, but I'd take 2-1 on her before I'd take 8-1 on him.

Blame coming up empty next out doesn't exactly bode well for him. Maybe none of them will win, or First Dude will finally find a field he can beat.

[RockHardTen1985]

I just noticed this comment. First off, my coldest opinions are better than your best. . . Anyways - I was being self deprecating in that post so as not to look overly douchey when essentially redboarding.

Let's be realistic? Have you ever been realistic?

It's not about the neck loss to Blame. It's about the fact that he couldn't win there with an easy lead, and that he came back to lumber home against a field that would make even John Shireffs blush. It's about the fact that a supposedly healthy horse--who has never been particularly sound in his life--is being trained up to a race that's at a distance beyond what is optimal for him (the 100% QR at Gulfstream would have no problem with the distance) against a field that will have more speed in it than when he spit the bit in the Whitney. If you think a three point odds jump from what he probably was pre-Whitney (he might be higher if people wise up) and what he'll be now after all that has happened is a fair price, by all means go ahead and bet. I'm a self proclaimed Zenyatta hater, but I'd take 2-1 on her before I'd take 8-1 on him. So I guess that head loss i

Blame coming up empty next out doesn't exactly bode well for him. Maybe none of them will win, or First Dude will finally find a field he can beat.

Blah Blah Blah.... Your best opinion is about the same as mine, we both know that. The shots at my opinion are OLD. I only said anything about your opinion because you made the comment to me about 2 weeks ago, then again on the board....Your QR bashing is so confident, I just thought I would remind you... Not intended to start anything, I think you know I respect your opinion. Blame came up empty, Hmmm.... Well QR next out still ran a beyer better then half the field. So whats it really mean? He wont be 8-1, NO WAY. So I guess that head loss is the difference in him being co chalk and in your words 8-1. A head, thats it, he holds on he is coming in 5-5 the flashy speedy Pletcher. Now hes 8-1?

[Travis Stone]

There are zero scenarios given the field right now where I think Quality Road can win, especially at anything close to single digits... and I'm a fan of the horse and his performances throughout his career.

[Indian Charlie]

There are zero scenarios given the field right now where I think Quality Road can win, especially at anything close to single digits... and I'm a fan of the horse and his performances throughout his career.

What about jocks on other horses letting QR get loose on the lead?

Not that I think QR will win, but hey, I've seen those jocks do some pretty stupid things.

[alysheba4]

What about jocks on other horses letting QR get loose on the lead?

Not that I think QR will win, but hey, I've seen those jocks do some pretty stupid things......thats what they should try. get the lead right out of there.....use the horses best asset,his natural speed.

[Thunder Gulch]

He is the fastest horse in the race. Everyone questions the last 1/8th and that may indeed prove to be his undoing, but I give him a big shot.

[johnny pinwheel]

He is the fastest horse in the race. Everyone questions the last 1/8th and that may indeed prove to be his undoing, but I give him a big shot.

i agree, the last 50 yards could be it...but he could find himself with slow fractions and get brave. speed is always a threat, haynesfield just proved it. but, i don't agree with the original thread. what are looking at lucky's issues????? he wins too much???? don't get it, i think LAL will be overlooked a little. hes pretty much the only 3 yo that belongs with these unless a foreign entity arrives.

[ArlJim78]

I'm not high on QR for the classic. As others have mentioned, his last race did not inspire confidence, especially with the way Blame came back last time. Considering the quality and size of the field, the distance, and the presence of other speeds, I don't see how he gets such an easy trip that he can also carry his speed for that extra furlong.

[Travis Stone]

Unless significant defections occur, I see no chance Quality Road is lone speed.... unless lone speed is a one length lead going 22 change, 44 change... and him getting 10 furlongs short of a bias going that fast against this group? I don't see it.

[tjfla]

Unless significant defections occur, I see no chance Quality Road is lone speed.... unless lone speed is a one length lead going 22 change, 44 change... and him getting 10 furlongs short of a bias going that fast against this group? I don't see it.

Travis nice article u wrote-are u gonna update it some? Love to see what u think the odds will be and pace will set up like

[NTamm1215]

Travis nice article u wrote

Don't feed his ego.

[RockHardTen1985]

i agree, the last 50 yards could be it...but he could find himself with slow fractions and get brave. speed is always a threat, haynesfield just proved it. but, i don't agree with the original thread. what are looking at lucky's issues????? he wins too much???? don't get it, i think LAL will be overlooked a little. hes pretty much the only 3 yo that belongs with these unless a foreign entity arrives.


If you think the master plan is to put him on the lead your wrong. He will be stalking 3rd or 4th around the track. Then when its time to run, hopefully the push button QR is back.

[Travis Stone]

Travis nice article u wrote-are u gonna update it some? Love to see what u think the odds will be and pace will set up like

Thanks! Yes I will... and I'll even devote a section of it to ntamm1215!

[Travis Stone]

What about jocks on other horses letting QR get loose on the lead?

Not that I think QR will win, but hey, I've seen those jocks do some pretty stupid things.

Definitely a possbility, always is. I don't think I see it here though. Who is going to let Quality Road loose out there?

Based on Steve's list, here are horses with early speed and/or pressing speed...

Espoir City
Etched
First Dude
Haynesfield
Morning Line
Quality Road

... even if one or to stumble/defect, there's still plenty of gas.

[2Hot4TV]

Not if he goes psycho at the gate.

I think Churchill Downs is a NO FLY ZONE.

[2Hot4TV]

So you dont think that the weights will make a differance going 1 1/4 miles on the dirt?

Qr will carry 126
LAL will carry 122
Z will carry 123

Quality Road has a problem with giving the 3yo LAL 4 lbs and Zenyatta gets 3lbs.

QR just might be off the board.

[NTamm1215]

So you dont think that the weights will make a differance going 1 1/4 miles on the dirt?

Qr will carry 126
LAL will carry 122
Z will carry 123

Quality Road has a problem with giving the 3yo LAL 4 lbs and Zenyatta gets 3lbs.

QR just might be off the board.

If Quality Road loses I'm confident it will have next to nothing to do with weight.

[tanner12oz]

the horse is game and has a killer instinct...he hits the board and damnit i still think he can win!

[Indian Charlie]

the horse is game and has a killer instinct...he hits the board and damnit i still think he can win!

That's the great thing about horse racing. You can backup your opinion and even profit from it!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Definitely a possbility, always is. I don't think I see it here though. Who is going to let Quality Road loose out there?

Based on Steve's list, here are horses with early speed and/or pressing speed...

Espoir City
Etched
First Dude
Haynesfield
Morning Line
Quality Road

... even if one or to stumble/defect, there's still plenty of gas.

I don't think a fast pace will bother Quality Road ...in fact, a fast pace might bother Zenyatta a lot more than QR as counter intuitve as that sounds.

Here is what I mean ... these are two very fast paced races...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxfpmHO2_Hc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34G-d7oF150&feature=related

Zenyatta absolutely crawled home over a surface notorious for lightening fast come home times the one and only time in her life when she faced a very fast pace.

Temple City is an example of what can happen when a synthetic router moves to dirt and sees a brutally fast pace.

[hockey2315]

I don't think a fast pace will bother Quality Road ...in fact, a fast pace might bother Zenyatta a lot more than QR as counter intuitve as that sounds.

Here is what I mean ... these are two very fast paced races...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxfpmHO2_Hc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34G-d7oF150&feature=related

Zenyatta absolutely crawled home over a surface notorious for lightening fast come home times the one and only time in her life when she faced a very fast pace.

Temple City is an example of what can happen when a synthetic router moves to dirt and sees a brutally fast pace.

They should've taken Zenyatta down in that one.

[Princess Doreen]

I think it's between Zenyatta and Looking at Lucky.

[Thunder Gulch]

Fastest Horse in the Race

[alysheba4]

wonder what a 2 tri Q.R. / BLAME / Z.....would pay

[Indian Charlie]

$0

[Port Conway Lane]

wonder what a 2 tri Q.R. / BLAME / Z.....would pay

(the $2 exacta probable)X(field size-2)divided by 2.

[chucklestheclown]

(the $2 exacta probable)X(field size-2)divided by 2.

Thank you.

[Revidere]

I don't think a fast pace will bother Quality Road ...in fact, a fast pace might bother Zenyatta a lot more than QR as counter intuitve as that sounds.

Here is what I mean ... these are two very fast paced races...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pxfpmHO2_Hc

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34G-d7oF150&feature=related

Zenyatta absolutely crawled home over a surface notorious for lightening fast come home times the one and only time in her life when she faced a very fast pace.

Temple City is an example of what can happen when a synthetic router moves to dirt and sees a brutally fast pace.

Race1: Comparing the surface and field in November to what Quality Road faced in the Donn is apples and oranges. A conveyor belt strip with Past The Point and Kiss the Kid et al. vs. what he'll face at the top of the stretch, on a track that will be deeper than Gulfstream on a fall evening where wind may be in his face with the likes of Blame, Zenyatta and Lookin at Lucky coming at him.

Race 2: Zenyatta's Vanity in 2008 was only her 6th start, in very humid conditions. She washed out badly and was never comfortable in the paddock. Even with that, she moved earlier than in any other start to that point and sustained her run for over a half mile in what was arguably her worst (not closest) race.

[Travis Stone]

Tough Tiz's Sis galloped-out past Zenyatta... I thought that was interesting.

[slotdirt]

But Zenyatta knows to just do enough every time! She's never blowing after a race, and she only lets horses finish as close to her as she wants. The only thing she hasn't quite done yet is master a beef Wellington, but that takes time and she's been consulting with Gordon Ramsay.

[slotdirt]

P.S. - people are acting like Churchill isn't a highway from time to time on big racing days. You think Monarchos was able to go 1:59 on hay and oats?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Tough Tiz's Sis galloped-out past Zenyatta... I thought that was interesting.

That race of Zen's reminded me a little of Afleet Alex's Derby - when he was 11th early and 8+ lengths behind a torrid pace ... he moved a little earlier than he should have considering the pace .. and because of the uncomfortably hot pace and early move he was unable to wear down a dead tired Closing Argument - and unable to hold off Giacomo.

In the Belmont - Rose just waited in 9th behind a crawl - and the slow pace didn't matter because he was so much better than those in front of him.

I'm going to look at my pace figures when the BC Classic draws .. but I think Zenyatta's last few pace figures would have her maybe as much as 25 lengths off of the pace. She'd be in another area code... and Smith simply isn't going to let her completely lose contact with the field - and let horses like Blame and Lookin At Lucky get a 12 length jump on her. Obviously she's going to have to work a whole lot harder early just to keep contact with the field... and who knows what that does to her in the stretch.

You see a horse like Temple City win a stakes race and beat Richard's Kid at Del Mar a few weeks before RK sweeps the Pacific Classic and Goodwood ... Temple City goes to Hawthorne and runs into a torrid pace. He was 9 lengths off of that pace, but it was still SO MUCH faster than he's comfortable going - that the horse just fell apart and was beaten 91 lengths. They're going to run Temple City back in the BC Marathon now - where he would probably open up a 20 length early lead if he went as fast early as he did when he was 9 lengths back at the first pace call at HAW last time.

[Revidere]

P.S. - people are acting like Churchill isn't a highway from time to time on big racing days. You think Monarchos was able to go 1:59 on hay and oats?

And where did Monarchos come from? After a 1/2 in 44 4/5, he was 13th, 13 lengths out of it. So, even though it was a highway, it did not carry the speed any further.

[Linny]

If QR goes to the lead and tries to slow the pace he lets other speed horses like Haynesfield, Espoir City, Morning Line and First Dude into the race. He creates a crush on the front end.
The way to take those runners out is to go fast enough early to discourage them. Then, if he takes that approach, what happens when real quality closers like Z, LaL and Blame all come running?
QR was not exactly covered in glory by the comeback performances of horses exiting the Woodward, which may have been the weakest renewal ever of that event. The 2nd and 3rd place runners were each last in their follow up races and clearly have no BC aspirations.

[Travis Stone]

That race of Zen's reminded me a little of Afleet Alex's Derby - when he was 11th early and 8+ lengths behind a torrid pace ... he moved a little earlier than he should have considering the pace .. and because of the uncomfortably hot pace and early move he was unable to wear down a dead tired Closing Argument - and unable to hold off Giacomo.

In the Belmont - Rose just waited in 9th behind a crawl - and the slow pace didn't matter because he was so much better than those in front of him.

I'm going to look at my pace figures when the BC Classic draws .. but I think Zenyatta's last few pace figures would have her maybe as much as 25 lengths off of the pace. She'd be in another area code... and Smith simply isn't going to let her completely lose contact with the field - and let horses like Blame and Lookin At Lucky get a 12 length jump on her. Obviously she's going to have to work a whole lot harder early just to keep contact with the field... and who knows what that does to her in the stretch.

You see a horse like Temple City win a stakes race and beat Richard's Kid at Del Mar a few weeks before RK sweeps the Pacific Classic and Goodwood ... Temple City goes to Hawthorne and runs into a torrid pace. He was 9 lengths off of that pace, but it was still SO MUCH faster than he's comfortable going - that the horse just fell apart and was beaten 91 lengths. They're going to run Temple City back in the BC Marathon now - where he would probably open up a 20 length early lead if he went as fast early as he did when he was 9 lengths back at the first pace call at HAW last time.

Good stuff. How she reacts to all this remains to be seen, especially on dirt, with dirt closers ahead of her and potential bad or wide trips not considered.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The 2nd and 3rd place runners were each last in their follow up races and clearly have no BC aspirations.

Far too much is being made of that.

Both of those horses ran too bad to be true.

Mythical Power ran a 50 Beyer in the Kelso and was dead last at every single call ... he looked like a wounded animal.

Tranquill Manner was beaten 22 lengths by Haynesfield and was noticeably off with his action. He ran like a 70 Beyer. One start before the Woodward, he beat Birdrun who came back and ran excellent.

Is that supposed to mean that Quality Road would have been beaten by Tizway by 23 lengths - and beaten by Haynesfield by 17 lengths?

The track was extremely slow in the 2nd half of the Saratoga meet ... for whatever unknown reason, you're more apt to see horses get screwed up after racing on slower than par dirt tracks.