Kasept
09-23-2010, 05:54 AM
It was kind of a 'workaday' card at Belmont Wednesday to start the raceweek, as straightforward results generally dominated the slate and modest earnings had to be ground out. Upset of Tahitian Warrior by Birdrun seemed to leave no one utterly shocked, as it became clear the $2,000,000 Godolphin acquiree is best suited for sprinting only. Missed the P4's as the Birdrun and Karakorum Elektra (8th) wins eluded my plays, but caught a couple nice scores with 39-1 Delightful Vicky dead-heating 3rd in the $101.75 5th race tri, and Best Value top tab R J Hope coming through in the 7th at 5-1 ($12.00) which also produced a solid $67.50 P3. Hope you did well!
Exciting day for Dee Tee Stables as Ausable Chasm's presence in the Friendly Beauty marks our first stakes start. The Belmont feature brings together a nice group of state bred juvenile fillies going three quarters, and our Hook and Ladder miss appears to be a good fit. Rajiv Maragh, who had been scheduled to ride her in either/both of her previous starts, finally gets the leg up today. More thoughts on the race below...
BELMONT PARK
PRE-SCRATCHES
1st: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #6 Hurricane Barb 5-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Speedy's Gal 3-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #3 Thatagirl 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Eden's Exchange 7-2 3rd
2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #8 Pretend and Extend 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Labor Harmony 8-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #9 SCR
Super Add: #4 SCR
3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD)
Very confusing group..
Most Likely: #4 The Gaillimh Girl 2-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Theda's Smile 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Tarrip 8-5 3rd
4th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #1 Rummer LATE/GATE SCR
Best Value: #6 Quiet Power 15-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Awesome Merger 4-1 WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #2 Big Fearless 5-2 6th
5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)
Best of luck here with an utterly inscrutible group..
Most Likely: #9 Troop Support 6-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Miscoe Gray 20-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Yes This Is It 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Read the Email 10-1 6th
6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Classic handicapping conundrum of former stakes/allowance types like Attempted Humor, Staying On and Codeword being offered up for "buy now" prices. Do you accept those ML choices at face value on the drop or opt for the established "in form/at the level" alternatives at 10-1 or thereabout?
Best Value: #10 SCR
Next Best: #6 SCR
Exotics Use: #2 Attempted Humor 2-1 4th
Super Add: #7 SCR
7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)
Feels almost certainly like a race predisposed to chaos..
Best Value: #5 Palace Mistress 30-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Morningside Heights 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Holy Blitzer 8-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Can She Dance 4-1 4th
8th: Friendly Beauty-NY, 2yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)
By all rights, I suppose should recuse myself from a selection in this spot given Dee Tee Stables' first appearance in a stakes race via Ausable Chasm. But I thought I reflected a fair assessment in her debut and winning second start, and hope I have a clear view of her in this event as well. I can't let the race pass without a nod to the pleasure I hope everyone that has taken part in Dee Tee feels at this occasion, as even participation in a restricted stake marks yet another milestone in the group's evolution and growth. Of course, no juncture in this travail should pass without voicing of appreciation for Chuck Simon and Gary Sciacca and their generosity in making the adventure possible for so many fans and players and their families and friends. Safe trip and 'BOL' to Ausable Chasm and Rajiv Maragh today..
Best Value: #7 Ausable Chasm 10-1: Stalk & go threat at number if able to relax early.. 8th
Next Best: #8 Yawkey Way 5-2: Obvious horse to beat given Brown's careful spotting.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Saltamontes 4-1: Impressed at price in debut against questionable lot.. WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #2 Ginger Snapit 3-1: Late addition to cast; Back quick for patient barn.. 4th
9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (Super)
Most Likely: #2 Sea of Liquidity 2-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #4 Crescent Moon Dr. 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Seren Trippidy 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 All My Chips 15-1 4th
<$75 P4 Play:
6: 2-6/SCR-10/SCR
7: 3-5-6-7-8-9
8: 2-5-7-8
9: 2
1x6x4x1 = $24
Good luck!
Steve
Exciting day for Dee Tee Stables as Ausable Chasm's presence in the Friendly Beauty marks our first stakes start. The Belmont feature brings together a nice group of state bred juvenile fillies going three quarters, and our Hook and Ladder miss appears to be a good fit. Rajiv Maragh, who had been scheduled to ride her in either/both of her previous starts, finally gets the leg up today. More thoughts on the race below...
BELMONT PARK
PRE-SCRATCHES
1st: MDN CLM, 2yo-F, 7f-T (P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #6 Hurricane Barb 5-2 7th
Next Best: #1 Speedy's Gal 3-1 WON ($8.00)
Best Value: #3 Thatagirl 6-1 5th
Super Add: #4 Eden's Exchange 7-2 3rd
2nd: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #8 Pretend and Extend 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #6 Labor Harmony 8-1 WON ($12.00)
Next Best: #9 SCR
Super Add: #4 SCR
3rd: OC/N2X, F&M-3+, 10f-IT (P3, DD)
Very confusing group..
Most Likely: #4 The Gaillimh Girl 2-1 6th
Best Value: #1 Theda's Smile 12-1 4th
Next Best: #3 Tarrip 8-5 3rd
4th: NY-MDN CLM, 2yo, 6f (P6, P3, DD, Super)
Most Likely: #1 Rummer LATE/GATE SCR
Best Value: #6 Quiet Power 15-1 8th
Next Best: #8 Awesome Merger 4-1 WON ($4.20)
Super Add: #2 Big Fearless 5-2 6th
5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 7f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)
Best of luck here with an utterly inscrutible group..
Most Likely: #9 Troop Support 6-1 8th
Best Value: #4 Miscoe Gray 20-1 7th
Next Best: #7 Yes This Is It 5-2 2nd
Super Add: #6 Read the Email 10-1 6th
6th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P4, P3, DD, Super)
Classic handicapping conundrum of former stakes/allowance types like Attempted Humor, Staying On and Codeword being offered up for "buy now" prices. Do you accept those ML choices at face value on the drop or opt for the established "in form/at the level" alternatives at 10-1 or thereabout?
Best Value: #10 SCR
Next Best: #6 SCR
Exotics Use: #2 Attempted Humor 2-1 4th
Super Add: #7 SCR
7th: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)
Feels almost certainly like a race predisposed to chaos..
Best Value: #5 Palace Mistress 30-1 6th
Next Best: #3 Morningside Heights 10-1 7th
Exotics Use: #8 Holy Blitzer 8-1 9th
Super Add: #6 Can She Dance 4-1 4th
8th: Friendly Beauty-NY, 2yo-F, 6f (DD, Super)
By all rights, I suppose should recuse myself from a selection in this spot given Dee Tee Stables' first appearance in a stakes race via Ausable Chasm. But I thought I reflected a fair assessment in her debut and winning second start, and hope I have a clear view of her in this event as well. I can't let the race pass without a nod to the pleasure I hope everyone that has taken part in Dee Tee feels at this occasion, as even participation in a restricted stake marks yet another milestone in the group's evolution and growth. Of course, no juncture in this travail should pass without voicing of appreciation for Chuck Simon and Gary Sciacca and their generosity in making the adventure possible for so many fans and players and their families and friends. Safe trip and 'BOL' to Ausable Chasm and Rajiv Maragh today..
Best Value: #7 Ausable Chasm 10-1: Stalk & go threat at number if able to relax early.. 8th
Next Best: #8 Yawkey Way 5-2: Obvious horse to beat given Brown's careful spotting.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #5 Saltamontes 4-1: Impressed at price in debut against questionable lot.. WON ($7.40)
Super Add: #2 Ginger Snapit 3-1: Late addition to cast; Back quick for patient barn.. 4th
9th: MDN CLM, 3+, 7f (Super)
Most Likely: #2 Sea of Liquidity 2-5 WON ($2.60)
Best Value: #4 Crescent Moon Dr. 12-1 5th
Exotics Use: #5 Seren Trippidy 12-1 2nd
Super Add: #6 All My Chips 15-1 4th
<$75 P4 Play:
6: 2-6/SCR-10/SCR
7: 3-5-6-7-8-9
8: 2-5-7-8
9: 2
1x6x4x1 = $24
Good luck!
Steve