8/28: Saratoga (Day 32-Travers)

[Kasept]

This is obviously a Saturday that needs little added fanfare from my keyboard. The coastal Racing Offices at Saratoga and Del Mar have authored outstanding Travers and Pacific Classic Day cards to kick off this big weekend, and horseplayers should relish the deep and challenging opportunities that abound as a result. Both meets wind down after these two days, so enjoy the great racing as we start the turn into the fall season...

Best of luck to everybody today!


SARATOGA RACE COURSE


POST-SCRATCHES


1st: ALW/N1X, 3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Aspire 3-1: Loved strip as juvy.. 9th
Best Value: #1 Six Clicks 6-1: Stalk and go candidate.. 6th
Next Best: #9 Maximus Ruler 7-2: Possible lone speed on return.. 8th
Super Add: #10 Cocolero 4-1: Reunites with debut win pilot.. 9th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 1-3-9 with 1-3-9 with 1-3-5-7-9-10 with 1-3-5-7-9-10 (3x2x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)


2nd: MSW, 2yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #7 Missyoulikecrazy 6-1: Full sis to Pretty Prolific (#6 Ballerina).. 3rd
Next Best: #6 Blazing Along 5-2: One the well meant Baffert trio today.. 6th
Exotics Use: #8 Malibu Cougar 5-1: Problematic trip in sloppy day bow.. 8th
Super Add: #4 With the Current 6-1: Swam upstream with Malibu Cougar.. 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 6-7-8 with 6-7-8 with 2-4-5-6-7-8 with 2-4-5-6-7-8 (3x2x4x3 = 72 x .10 = $7.20)


3rd: MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #4 Nolangrant'skitten 6-1: Better tote than beatable fave Forum.. 7th
Next Best: #10 Volker 6-1: Bred to enjoy move to sod, routes.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #5 Tingaleo 10-1: Ward 2/6 stretching 2yo's in grass bow.. 10th
Super Add: #11 Peb Hughes 8-1: Half to Cherokee Artist shopped for spot.. 8th


4th: NY-ALW/N1X, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

As has been the theme all meet, these state bred turf routes have been furtive opportunities for scores, and betting The Noz at 3-1 isn't the method by which you capitalize with about 8 or 9 here possible for honors..

Best Value: #9 Joey's Chance 6-1 8th
Next Best: #3 Barrel of Love 10-1 3rd-DH
Exotics Use: #11 Dos Hombres 8-1 5th
Super Add: #6 Thunder Chief 8-1 4th

.10 SUPER PLAY: 9 with 3-11 with 1-3-4-5-6-11 with All (1x2x6x9 = 108 x .10 = $10.80)


5th: MSW, 2yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #4 Free Entry 6-1: SW sib Thunders Dove was sharp 2yo.. 4th
Best Value: #7 Northern Hammer 15-1: Working well under radar; Tote bonus.. 10th
Next Best: #3 Uncle Mo 3-1: Repole/Pletcher.. Yawn.. WON ($3.80)
Super Add: #1 Research Report 4-1: Debut outfit but tough post.. 5th


<$75 P4 Play:

2: 6-7
3: 4-5-10
4: 3-9-11
5: 1-3-4-7

2x3x3x4 = $72


6th: NY-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-IT (P3, DD, Super)

Another opportunity to swing for the fences..

Best Value: #2 Neversaywhen 12-1 9th
Next Best: #5 Fourseventeen 12-1 4th
Exotics Use: #8 Chingachgook 9-5 3rd
Super Add: #7 Felice Di Notte 15-1 7th


7th: OC/C, 3+, 9.5f-T (G/S, P3, DD, Super)

Fascinating near marathon on the Mellon Course with many 'usual suspects' for this kind of event (Mott, Clement, et al..), and many other enticing price candidates..

Best Value: #2 Insider Tip 20-1 3rd
Next Best: #4 More Than Willing 12-1 10th
Exotics Use: #11 En Fuego 5-1 8th
Super Add: #9 Rescue Squad 8-1 6th


8th: 22nd Ballston Spa (G2), F&M-3+, 8.5-IT (P6, P3, DD, Super)

No Phola or Maram for me, thanks; Far too many more eligible missys at better prices in here..

Most Likely: #8 Cherokee Queen 6-1: Leparoux back after botched MTH start.. 9th
Best Value: #2 Danzon 20-1: What's not to like at that number? 4th
Exotics Use: #1 Miss Keller 7-2: Picture of consistency.. 3rd
Super Add: #10 Meking Melody 6-1: Came back a different mare at 5.. 10th


<$100 P4 Play:

5: 1-3-4-7
6: 2-5
7: 2-4-9-11
8: 1-2-8

4x2x3x4 = $96


9th: 8th Victory Ride (G3), 3yo-F, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #7 Beyondallboudarys 4-1: Shows steady growth under Amoss.. 3rd
Next Best: #3 Rapport 3-1: Speed of the speed? Garcia owns both her wins.. WON ($6.90)
Best Value: #4 Sister Dawn 6-1: Ready to explode forward in first dirt try? 7th
Super Add: #9 Katy Now 7-2: Cuts back while reuniting with Velazquez.. 4th


10th: 32nd Ballerina (G1), F&M-3+, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #2 Warbling 4-1: Compromised chances in HonMiss start.. 2nd
Best Value: #6 Pretty Prolific 12-1: 2nd start with McPeek who doffs hood (31%).. 7th
Next Best: #1 Rightly So 6-1: Seriously speedy T. Dutrow/Zayat guns from rails.. WON ($11.40)
Super Add: #8 First Passage 15-1: Problematic in/out type has punchers' chance.. 5th


11th: 26th King's Bishop (G1), 3yo, 7f (P3, DD, Super)

Hard to believe that Discreetly Mine's enormous Amsterdam effort won't cause a regression here. May still have enough to best rivals, but worth taking slight cautionary position against..

Best Value: #6 Bank Merger 8-1: Spotted field lengths and rallied.. 2nd
Next Best: #4 Discreetly Mine 6-5: Respect, but don't fear.. WON ($4.10)
Exotics Use: #2 Hurricane Ike 6-1 4th
Super Add: #1 Latigo Shore 20-1 3rd

$1 Exacta (4-6) Paid $14.90
$1 Trifecta (4-6-1) Paid $138.00
$1 Superfecta (4-6-1-2) Paid $563.50


12th: 141st Travers S. (G1), 3yo, 10f (DD, Travers-Per. Ensign Double, Super)

Cannot recall a Travers more compelling from standpoint of openess. Plethora of options and mutuels to choose from when constructing plays, and no inclusion or exclusion would be questioned. Appears an honest pace will develop at the least, and runners inclined for mid-pack/stalk and finish trips make the most sense to me. Afleet Express, Friend or Foe and Trappe Shot flashed most upside of late-developing sophs, and are the core of my approach here with the Jerkens trainee most likely to run biggest race..

Most Likely: #7 AFLEET EXPRESS 6-1 WON ($16.00)
Best Value: #9 Friend or Foe 15-1 6th
Next Best: #2 Trappe Shot 4-1 9th
Super Add: #8 Fly Down 8-1 2nd

.10 SUPER PLAY: 7 with 2-3-8-9-10 with 2-3-8-9-10 with ALL (1x5x4x8 = 160 x .10 = $16.00)


<$100 P4 Play:

9: 3-4-7-9
10: All
11: 2-4-6
12: 7

4x8x3x1 = $96 $1 Pick 4 (3-1-4-7) Paid $422.50


13th: CLM/N2L, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T (Super)

Most Likely: #5 Pretty Cozzy 9-2 WON ($8.90)
Best Value: #9 Moonlight Beauty 8-1 5th
Exotics Use: #6 Max's Runner 4-1 7th
Super Add: #2 Ben's Boots 9-2 3rd


Good luck!
Steve

[jms62]

Good Luck today Steve.. Yesterday was brutal which leads me to believe today is the day to knock it out of the park.

[Heels1989]

Best of luck everyone. 1st Travers I have missed in almost 20 years :(

Have a funny feeling Zito breaks out of his funk today.

[Kasept]

Good Luck today Steve.. Yesterday was brutal which leads me to believe today is the day to knock it out of the park.

Thx.. U2! I like the home run reference, because as it happens, I took a swing for fences approach today.

[bahughes]

lot of value today good luck

[Kasept]

SAR SCR/CHG'S (http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/SAR-changes.asp)

[jms62]

SAR SCR/CHG'S (http://www.equibase.com/premium/changes/SAR-changes.asp)

Steve.. I am seeing 1-Kid Kate Scratched in the 9th not 1-Miss Keller in the 8th.

[Bogey]

Best of luck everyone. 1st Travers I have missed in almost 20 years :(

Have a funny feeling Zito breaks out of his funk today.Heels, I kind of feel the same way and this has the look of the 2004 edition (Birdstone - The Cliff's Edge) without the darkness and thunderstorm as they crossed the finish line.

[SkinnyKid]

Good luck to all on a wonderful day of wagering...and lots of :$:

[Mike]

guess I'm swinging for the fences tOday, too, though I am trying to bet more conservatively. But, I gotta' do what I gotta' do:)

Saratoga:
Ballston Spa (3:30 p.m) -Silver Reunion
Ballerina (4:38 p.m.) -Rightly So
Travers (5:46 p.m.) - tri box A Little Warm/Trappe Shot/Admiral Alex

Del Mar
Del Mar Mile (5:50 p.m. eastern) - Moudez
Pacific Classic (7:30 p.m eastern)-Isle of Giant's


Monmouth 10th, Restoration Stakes (5:12 p.m.)- Double O Uno

Finger Lakes 8th, New York Oaks (4:19 p.m.)- D' Oratory

Louisiana Downs 10th, Honeymoon Stakes (5:54 p.m.)-Speedacious

[Kasept]

Steve.. I am seeing 1-Kid Kate Scratched in the 9th not 1-Miss Keller in the 8th.

You're right! Fixed it...

[dagolfer33]

Apparently swinging for the fences isn't far enough, swing for the stars.

[dagolfer33]

I just swung and missed at 2 pitches that were 10 feet over my head:zz::zz:

[-BT-]

it only took you one horse.... but i had to use five in the last leg of my pk4, none the less great call steve

have fun tonight

-bt-

[richard burch]

nice pick steve.....i rode your back to victory!

[pointman]

Nice job, Steve! I changed my play from the 7,8 based upon the bias. This may be the most frustrating day I have ever had playing races. :wf

[declansharbor]

Great picking today!! From Steve to the playalong-ers, superb effort!!

[lazytom]

steve - congrats - you did it again -thought it was fly down - your amazzzing- thanks for the ride - tom

[stevepopyak]

Nice work Steve !!!

[atolunch]

Great job today Steve!

Congrats, and thanks as always!!:tro::$:

[MaTH716]

Nice Job on the late quad Steve.

[asudevil]

Steve,
What baytzim you have....singling A.E....Sweet!

That was a schvitzer.

[Gaines2b]

Great job! A "nose" is as good as a mile!:tro:
Thanks.

[Kasept]

Thanks to everybody for the kind compliments. I got lucky obviously as that photo was as tight as could be. Franklly, I feel like I got one back after the excruciating Mambo in Seattle loss 2 years ago. The payoff wasn't as hefty as I was looking for with the style of the structure ($422.50), and it probably doesn't justify the the gambit's moderate probability for success, but I'll take it after wandering around blind without a cane for the first two thirds of the card Saturday.

More than anything, Travers Day was a testimony for staying on despite early losses. I was get slaughtered through the 8th race before starting to find the range when Rapport logically took the Victory Ride. It would have been nice to get any bigger price on the P4 tick with the 'all' button Ballerina, and perhaps Warbling could have reeled in Rightly So on a fairer track. And similarly, Bank Merger ($9.70) seemed to have dead aim on Discreetly Mine ($1.05) in the King's Bishop, but could not make up the length or so margin in the latest stages. When Latigo Shore ($44.70) and Hurricane Ike ($7.30) rounded out the $138 tri and $563 super in the the G1 test for sophs, I at least started to take the edge of the pounding I was taken up to that point.

Travers generated another thrilling and unforgettable stretch duel in its' 141st edition, the third such breath-taker in the last four runnings as Afleet Express and Fly Down battled gamely for 200 yards. And to say Jimmy Jerkens was a popular training winner may be the season's greatest understatement. The taciturn son of a legend had through the previous year experienced client setbacks that would have crippled many a conditioner. The loss of Ned Evans and the Moores as owners drained more than 20 horses from Jerkens' shedrow, and winning a race like the Travers has to come as welcome affirmation for a man who doesn't let many people get to know him.

It was a remarkably beautiful day at the Old Spa, and the 45,000+ that were on hand had to have had as good a time as a racetrack is capable of offering. Another 30,000 have a similar opportunity today... Hope you did well Saturday!

[PSH]

Just wanted to let you know that i really appreciate all of the hours you put in for bringing us at the races and derbytrail. I was able to take in much of the early Saratoga card yesterday for Travers Day and it looked like a spectacular day for one of the top 4 days in racing during the year (KY Derby, Belmont Stakes, Breeders Cup and Travers).

I unfortunately was not able to make my annual long journey from San Francisco to Saratoga this year so the sights from yesterday were wonderful to see.. Sorry that i am going to miss all of my friends from Saratoga this year but we have already planned a trip back next year to the SPA. The large crowd and beautiful weather was as you stated what racing is all about at the best venue in racing.

I also enjoy reading Steve Crist (i can almost taste Hattie's chicken) and following Andy Serling who both do an excellent job at the DRF and NYRA!

Best of luck today with the Dee Tee NY Bred AC and we will be keeping our fingers crossed today with Hippo Jones at Arlington.

Take care,

PSH