8/28 (SAR): Travers Day

[Kasept]

8th (3:30) Ballston Spa H. (G2)

1 1/16 Miles (Inner Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Miss Keller (IRE) Castellano J J 118 L
2 Danzon Solis A 118 L
3 Phola Dominguez R A 120 L
4 Silver Reunion Maragh R 118 L
5 Strike the Bell Prado E S 118 L
6 Scolara Desormeaux K J 118 L
7 Dynaslew Coa E M 118 L
8 Cherokee Queen Leparoux J R 118 L
9 Maram Lezcano J 118 L
10 Mekong Melody (IRE) Velazquez J R 120



9th (4:05) Victory Ride S. (G3)

6 Furlongs | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Kid Kate Prado E S 120 L
2 My Jen Leparoux J R 120 L
3 Rapport Garcia M 116 L
4 Sister Dawn Maragh R 116 L
5 Worstcasescenario Garcia Alan 120 L
6 Simply Spiteful Lezcano J 118 L
7 Beyondallboundarys Borel C H 120 L
8 Touching Beauty Castellano J J 123 L
9 Katy Now Velazquez J R 118 L



10th (4:38) Ballerina H. (G1)

7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Rightly So Velasquez C 117 L
2 Warbling Castellano J J 119 L
3 Jessica Is Back Trujillo E 122 L
4 Informed Decision Leparoux J R 119 L
5 Qualia Maragh R 115 L
6 Pretty Prolific Prado E S 117 Blk-Off L
7 Devil by Design Desormeaux K J 115 L
8 First Passage Bridgmohan J V 117 L



11th (5:10) King's Bishop S. (G1)

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Latigo Shore Dominguez R A 117 L
2 Hurricane Ike Borel C H 119 L
3 D' Funnybone Prado E S 123 L
4 Discreetly Mine Velazquez J R 123 L
5 Bulldogger Garcia M 117 L
6 Bank Merger Garcia Alan 117 L
7 In Jack's Memory Mena M 117 L



12th (5:45) 141st Travers S. (G1)

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 Miner's Reserve Cohen D 126 L
2 Trappe Shot Garcia Alan 126 L
3 Admiral Alex Desormeaux K J 126 L
4 First Dude Dominguez R A 126 Blk-On L
5 A Little Warm Velazquez J R 126 L
6 Ice Box Leparoux J R 126 L
7 Afleet Express Castellano J J 126 L
8 Fly Down Lezcano J 126 L
9 Friend Or Foe Maragh R 126 L
10 Afleet Again Velasquez C 126 L
11 Super Saver Borel C H 126 L

[fpsoxfan]

Could shape up to be a very interesting race. I really can't see anything being less than 3-1.

[dalakhani]

A decent price on the derby exacta perhaps?

[Dahoss]

Should be a great betting race. I thought I had read last week Miners Reserve was not running. With him in the race there does appear to be a decent amount of speed. I wouldn't leave Ice Box off of any tickets.

[blackthroatedwind]

Should be a great betting race. I thought I had read last week Miners Reserve was not running. With him in the race there does appear to be a decent amount of speed. I wouldn't leave Ice Box off of any tickets.

I wonder if Trickmeister's not running figured into a decision to perhaps run Miners Reserve.

[Dahoss]

I wonder if Trickmeister's not running figured into a decision to perhaps run Miners Reserve.

Makes sense. I'm just surprised Admiral Alex didn't scare more people off.

[Clip-Clop]

Makes sense. I'm just surprised Admiral Alex didn't scare more people off.

:tro:

[blackthroatedwind]

Makes sense. I'm just surprised Admiral Alex didn't scare more people off.

It is hard to believe.

Kent is going to be very disappointed after this race. However, there's still the Arc.

[slotdirt]

What's that, three Afleet Alex's in the Travers? Not a bad first crop.

[tjfla]

Gotta love IEAH,they buy Trickmeister talk him up for the race(Will beat First Dude to the lead and wire the field) then pick a easier race

Still surprised about Golden Moka,he was nominated and passed the big Canada race. Everything I been reading had him coming to the Spa?

[Alan07]

It is hard to believe.

Kent is going to be very disappointed after this race. However, there's still the Arc.

And we wonder why he is off his mounts today?

[tjfla]

1 Miner's Reserve 12/1
2 Trappe Shot 4/1
3 Admiral Alex 12/1
4 First Dude 8/1
5 A Little Warm 7/2
6 Ice Box 10/1
7 Afleet Express 7/1
8 Fly Down 8/1
9 Friend or Foe 15/1
10 Afleet Again 30/1
11 Super Saver 6/1

[randallscott35]

The Admiral/all/all :):):)

[clyde]

I wonder if Trickmeister's not running figured into a decision to perhaps run Miners Reserve.



We expect better from you.

[Alan07]

8th (3:30) Ballston Spa H. (G2)

1 1/16 Miles (Inner Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Miss Keller (IRE) Castellano J J 118 L
2 Danzon Solis A 118 L
3 Phola Dominguez R A 120 L
4 Silver Reunion Maragh R 118 L
5 Strike the Bell Prado E S 118 L
6 Scolara Desormeaux K J 118 L
7 Dynaslew Coa E M 118 L
8 Cherokee Queen Leparoux J R 118 L
9 Maram Lezcano J 118 L
10 Mekong Melody (IRE) Velazquez J R 120

9th (4:05) Victory Ride S. (G3)

6 Furlongs | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Kid Kate Prado E S 120 L
2 My Jen Leparoux J R 120 L
3 Rapport Garcia M 116 L
4 Sister Dawn Maragh R 116 L
5 Worstcasescenario Garcia Alan 120 L
6 Simply Spiteful Lezcano J 118 L
7 Beyondallboundarys Borel C H 120 L
8 Touching Beauty Castellano J J 123 L
9 Katy Now Velazquez J R 118 L


10th (4:38) Ballerina H. (G1)

7 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Rightly So Velasquez C 117 L
2 Warbling Castellano J J 119 L
3 Jessica Is Back Trujillo E 122 L
4 Informed Decision Leparoux J R 119 L
5 Qualia Maragh R 115 L
6 Pretty Prolific Prado E S 117 Blk-Off L
7 Devil by Design Desormeaux K J 115 L
8 First Passage Bridgmohan J V 117 L


11th (5:10) King's Bishop S. (G1)

7 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $250,000

1 Latigo Shore Dominguez R A 117 L
2 Hurricane Ike Borel C H 119 L
3 D' Funnybone Prado E S 123 L
4 Discreetly Mine Velazquez J R 123 L
5 Bulldogger Garcia M 117 L
6 Bank Merger Garcia Alan 117 L
7 In Jack's Memory Mena M 117 L


12th (5:45) 141st Travers S. (G1)

1 1/4 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 Miner's Reserve Cohen D 126 L
2 Trappe Shot Garcia Alan 126 L
3 Admiral Alex Desormeaux K J 126 L
4 First Dude Dominguez R A 126 Blk-On L
5 A Little Warm Velazquez J R 126 L
6 Ice Box Leparoux J R 126 L
7 Afleet Express Castellano J J 126 L
8 Fly Down Lezcano J 126 L
9 Friend Or Foe Maragh R 126 L
10 Afleet Again Velasquez C 126 L
11 Super Saver Borel C H 126 L

[Sightseek]

What a great day!

[jms62]

Great betting card...

[Clip-Clop]

Gonna be an awesome Ballerina. Looking forward to that one.

[pweizer]

1 Miner's Reserve 12/1
2 Trappe Shot 4/1
3 Admiral Alex 12/1
4 First Dude 8/1
5 A Little Warm 7/2
6 Ice Box 10/1
7 Afleet Express 7/1
8 Fly Down 8/1
9 Friend or Foe 15/1
10 Afleet Again 30/1
11 Super Saver 6/1

If these odds are even close to what we will get, I will be thrilled. I have no interest in the three horses with the lowest odds.

Paul

[Travis Stone]

Does the Travers follow suit with nearly every other 3-year-old race this year and produce a different winner? It's been a crazy year for the crop.

First Dude... I'm wondering if he has one more shot in him... he's the last horse who came close to beating Lookin at Lucky.

[randallscott35]

The whole card is absolutely terrific. Excited.

[Clip-Clop]

Does the Travers follow suit with nearly every other 3-year-old race this year and produce a different winner? It's been a crazy year for the crop.

First Dude... I'm wondering if he has one more shot in him... he's the last horse who came close to beating Lookin at Lucky.

Would not be a surprise. Most of them would not surprise me. Distance might help?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Pace projections for the Travers based solely on prior pace figures:

After 6 furlongs (4fs left to go at this point)

Leader: Miner's Reserve (1.25 lengths)

2nd place: A Little Warm (1.25 behind leader)

3rd place: Friend or Foe (3 behind leader)

4th place: Super Saver (4 behind leader)

5th place: First Dude (5 behind leader)

6th place: Trappe Shot (5.5 behind leader)

7th place: Afleet Express (5.75 behind leader)

8th place: Afleet Again (8 behind leader)

9th place: Fly Down (9.5 behind leader)

10th place: Ice Box (10.5 behind leader)

11th place: Admiral Alex (15.5 behind leader)


Obvioulsy - Miner's Reserve and A Little Warm have wildly superior early speed to the rest of this field. Because they avoided a duel last time, and each lollygagged relative to their strong speed .. they stayed on to finish 1-2 at 9fs.

First Dude has all 1's on his form in his last three races and gets blinkers - but he's been setting slowpoke paces on unpressured leads in his last 3. Even though Miner's Reserve and A Little Warm are much faster .. those two will be under strong restraint and there's no way FD will be 5 back early like his numbers say.

There's also no way Admiral Alex will be 15+ back after six furlongs - he will have to work MUCH harder to stay in a competitive spot this time.. that should impact his performance negatively and he'll be lucky to run back to that 87 he ran last time.

The distance and pace should perfectly suit Fly Down. He's my pick.

[clyde]

That's all I needed to hear.




IceBox to win.

[Payson Dave]

The Maidens on Travers day look pretty good to me... :{>:

[ateamstupid]

Two things: How come no Lisa's Booby Trap in the Victory Ride? Also, is Betsy the stable manager for Stidham? When the hell is Comedero going to get an actual test?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

That's all I needed to hear.




IceBox to win.

He's got a great chance in there. I'm using him underneath.

He beat the eventual Ohio Derby winner Pleasant Prince by a nose when he got a similar pace setup at 9fs in the Fla Derby.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Two things: How come no Lisa's Booby Trap in the Victory Ride? Also, is Betsy the stable manager for Stidham? When the hell is Comedero going to get an actual test?

Lisa's Booby Trap goes in the Riskaverse.

[philcski]

Does the Travers follow suit with nearly every other 3-year-old race this year and produce a different winner? It's been a crazy year for the crop.

First Dude... I'm wondering if he has one more shot in him... he's the last horse who came close to beating Lookin at Lucky.

I'm done with First Dude.

Since I'm not sold on A Little Warm going a mile and a quarter, I'm going with Afleet Express.


Two highly regarded 2yo's go in allowance races earlier in the card, and probably take money- and I don't like either of them in these spots. Could be good opportunities.

[miraja2]

4th place: Super Saver (4 behind leader)

That's probably how it will be, but remember last year when this colt would zip the opening half of 8f races in something like :45&2? Pletcher sure trained the speed right out of him.

[Danzig]

Two things: How come no Lisa's Booby Trap in the Victory Ride? Also, is Betsy the stable manager for Stidham? When the hell is Comedero going to get an actual test?


:D

[clyde]

He's got a great chance in there. I'm using him underneath.

He beat the eventual Ohio Derby winner Pleasant Prince by a nose when he got a similar pace setup at 9fs in the Fla Derby.



I could beat PleasantPrince.



Using another method here.

[the_fat_man]

Obvioulsy - Miner's Reserve and A Little Warm have wildly superior early speed to the rest of this field. Because they avoided a duel last time, and each lollygagged relative to their strong speed .. they stayed on to finish 1-2 at 9fs.



No speed bias help last out for these 2? How does either even sniff the wire on a fair track going 10F?

[NTamm1215]

Two things: How come no Lisa's Booby Trap in the Victory Ride? Also, is Betsy the stable manager for Stidham? When the hell is Comedero going to get an actual test?

They stupidly entered Comedero in the Select at Monmouth after Discreetly Mine crushed the Amsterdam. Stidham thought the King's Bishop would be too quick a comeback and at this point they're looking at stretching him out.

NT

[Coach Pants]

Trappe Shot

[The Indomitable DrugS]

No speed bias help last out for these 2? How does either even sniff the wire on a fair track going 10F?

No, there was no speed bias on Jim Dandy day in my opinion.

If there was, it would only further help Fly Down.. but I don't believe there was.

The only wire-to-wire winner on dirt that day was a longshot - but he won his only other dirt start despite getting involved in an absolutely destructive no holds barred speed duel with a horse who was eased after five furlongs and came right back to run three markedly improved races.

Looking at the other races - a few of them I bet that day - I didn't see anything resembling a speed bias.

[GPK]

I see Film Makers first runner is making his debut in the 3rd.

[tjfla]

With Miner's Reserve in the 1 hole,First Dude should be out front pretty easy. Doubt he wins but gotta think this sets up just like the Belmont where he hits the board.

I also am liking Fly Down in this spot(just like the Belmont),there will be more speed up front then the Jim Dandy however I could see Afleet Express come flying up as well at the end

Should be a great betting race no matter what

[CSC]

Super Saver has a bad post but if Borel can get him to slide over into a good spot and track the likely speed, he wins.

[hockey2315]

With Miner's Reserve in the 1 hole,First Dude should be out front pretty easy. Doubt he wins but gotta think this sets up just like the Belmont where he hits the board.

I also am liking Fly Down in this spot(just like the Belmont),there will be more speed up front then the Jim Dandy however I could see Afleet Express come flying up as well at the end

Should be a great betting race no matter what

Not sure I understand this logic.

[NTamm1215]

Super Saver has a bad post but if Borel can get him to slide over into a good spot and track the likely speed, he wins.

Really?

[CSC]

Really?

You don't like him? Please expand on the one word reply, really.

[NTamm1215]

You don't like him? Please expand on the one word reply, really.

I mean, you seemed to very "matter of factly" believe that Super Saver would win if he gets the rail, right?

The Derby is beginning to look like an aberration and winning it is always going to get Super Saver a lot of support at the windows. However, you have to believe he's going to rebound immensely in his 2nd start off a layoff to win this race and the price you're going to get on him doing that is just not worth it IMO.

NT

[Danzig]

Super Saver has a bad post but if Borel can get him to slide over into a good spot and track the likely speed, he wins.

i'd use him if it's sloppy...and unlike some others, he's proven at 10f. there are certainly less likely horses in here; he may well surprise some doubters on saturday.

[the_fat_man]

No, there was no speed bias on Jim Dandy day in my opinion.



Six 9F races run @ SAR 7/30, 31 & 8/01

7/30 -- was that clown race won by Persistently, where the jocks played knockouts with each other and the last move won --- we'll throw this one out

7/31 --

R2 --- the Admiral Alex race goes 3-4-1 around the track but the top 3 were within 2 length of the lead at all times

R7 -- Arcodoro wires @ huge odds. the 3rd horse was 3rd, < 3 lengths back the 1st 3 calls.

R9 -- Jim Dandy goes 2-1 (essentially a duel around the track), with nothing running late

8/01

R8 -- CUrlin stakes --- Winslow HOmer goes wire to wire in a pronounced wipeout, that went 1-2 around the track

R9 -- Ruffian -- 1-2 around the track

Now, some of these results might make good sense in terms of the setups/pace but it also appears that there was a 2-turn bias on those days.

I don't want the Jim Dandy horses back. That much is clear.

[CSC]

I mean, you seemed to very "matter of factly" believe that Super Saver would win if he gets the rail, right?

The Derby is beginning to look like an aberration and winning it is always going to get Super Saver a lot of support at the windows. However, you have to believe he's going to rebound immensely in his 2nd start off a layoff to win this race and the price you're going to get on him doing that is just not worth it IMO.

NT

Yes, maybe. I think his last 2 starts have cooled his appeal quite abit, plus he has a bad post. I'm hoping these 2 factors plus the belief that many believe the derby was aberation will offset the blind appeal of betting a derby winner. You may have a point, but he does have alot of questions to answer this race. I also think there are going to be quite a few wiseguy choices in this race, he should be a square price.

As for the rail, I can see him up on the pace but Borel just slotting himself behind the speed horses, I love horses that run an awful line and handicappers concentrating on that last race. I think he will run well this Saturday and if Borel can get him to the first turn just off the leaders and no more than 3 wide he should be able to slot him inside once they make the turn. If Pletch has him ready he should be in a prime sit and pounce position.

[RolloTomasi]

What's the likelihood Miner's Reserve actually starts? Zito, who has 2 other horses entered, seemed on the fence all week about this horse even after post positions were drawn.

Gotta think he's looking hard at the Pennsylvania Derby or elsewhere.

If he comes out Super Saver, First Dude, Afleet Express, Friend Or Foe, Trappe Shot and A Little Warm have all shown enough speed to be prominent early, so we could see 1 or 2 premature moves down the backstretch.

Personally, I think Trappe Shot, if he's still in one piece, will break out here. Whereas A Little Warm seemed to have ideal runs in his last pair, Trappe Shot has had at least some minor traffic issues to deal with and done fairly well. The 10f seems to be within range for him, too, which is ironic because he was considered for the 7f King's Bishop as well, something perhaps the connections of Afleet Express and Friend Or Foe should have seriously considered as well.

[CSC]

i'd use him if it's sloppy...and unlike some others, he's proven at 10f. there are certainly less likely horses in here; he may well surprise some doubters on saturday.

It's not a killer field, if one uses a projected beyer to win this race, he is one that can certainly hit the mark. He runs big or he flops into obscurity.

[miraja2]

What's the likelihood Miner's Reserve actually starts? Zito, who has 2 other horses entered, seemed on the fence all week about this horse even after post positions were drawn.He does have two other horses entered, but their chances would both take a serious hit if Miner's Reserve scratched for another spot.

[tjfla]

What's the likelihood Miner's Reserve actually starts? Zito, who has 2 other horses entered, seemed on the fence all week about this horse even after post positions were drawn.

Gotta think he's looking hard at the Pennsylvania Derby or elsewhere.

If he comes out Super Saver, First Dude, Afleet Express, Friend Or Foe, Trappe Shot and A Little Warm have all shown enough speed to be prominent early, so we could see 1 or 2 premature moves down the backstretch.

Personally, I think Trappe Shot, if he's still in one piece, will break out here. Whereas A Little Warm seemed to have ideal runs in his last pair, Trappe Shot has had at least some minor traffic issues to deal with and done fairly well. The 10f seems to be within range for him, too, which is ironic because he was considered for the 7f King's Bishop as well, something perhaps the connections of Afleet Express and Friend Or Foe should have seriously considered as well.


Very doubtful Miner's Reserve scratches-the reason why he is running is because Zito and the owner wanted him in the race. He was iffy last week cause he didnt have a jockey and was not sure but he had a great workout and gotta be in

Plus he helps out Fly Down big time if he runs. More speed out front

[Betsy]

Very doubtful Miner's Reserve scratches-the reason why he is running is because Zito and the owner wanted him in the race. He was iffy last week cause he didnt have a jockey and was not sure but he had a great workout and gotta be in

Plus he helps out Fly Down big time if he runs. More speed out front

He was and is still iffy. Zito said he's undecided as to whether to run MR - they are looking at the Smarty Jones for him. I don't think La Penta would want his horse entered as mostly a way to help Fly Down.

[NTamm1215]

He was and is still iffy. Zito said he's undecided as to whether to run MR - they are looking at the Smarty Jones for him. I don't think La Penta would want his horse entered as mostly a way to help Fly Down.

What about being entered as mostly a way to help Ice Box?

NT

[Danzig]

miner's reserve earned a spot here; i hope they don't opt to go elsewhere. i think he belongs more than the other two at this point.

[Linny]

A friend of mine in the media, who has been friendly with Nick for years asked him about "going with 3" on Sat, and he was snarled at. I'm not sure Zito is all that in favor of MR in this spot.

[Betsy]

What about being entered as mostly a way to help Ice Box?

NT

Does La Penta own Ice Box? Either way, he's a nice horse - I'd hate to see him be used as a rabbit.

[Betsy]

miner's reserve earned a spot here; i hope they don't opt to go elsewhere. i think he belongs more than the other two at this point.

I think Nicky likes Ice Box best.......then Fly Down. I don't think he's that enamored of MR - his quotes abou MR do not exactly radiate confidence.

I think Ice Box is overrated and although I like Fly Down a lot, he didn't show anything in the Jim Dandy.

[Indian Charlie]

I'd go with Super Saver here if they move the race to CD.

[nomad]

Travers looks relatively easy....
A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve
My money will probably go on MR as he is improving, works look good.
If he can avoid a duel with First Dude, he is much faster.
He's got the rail, not sure if that is bad or good. In top form, he could clear this field & hold off ALW. Spa's been speed-favoring.
I'll box 'em
JMO

[hockey2315]

Very easy race. You're right.

[RockHardTen1985]

Very easy race. You're right.

Will you be here?
What do you think of the pick 4? After looking at the pps Im not as excited. I might be more into the early pick 4.

[hockey2315]

Will you be here?
What do you think of the pick 4? After looking at the pps Im not as excited. I might be more into the early pick 4.

Nah working from down here. . . I think the late pk4 looks pressable.

[RockHardTen1985]

Nah working from down here. . . I think the late pk4 looks pressable.

Pressable? Hmm..
Discreetly Mine is not a toss, but Im likely to use 3. Who do you like in the Victory Ride? Are you really pressing Qualia? I think she finally busts out, but her hang job last time is really disapointing.
Back to the Victory Ride... I would say the 3,4,5,7,8,9 can all win, with the 3 being the total key to the race. Does she put them all on the chase and cause a meltdown, or does she get brave? The 8 being least likely of the ones I mentioned, but in a spread I think I would cover.

[hockey2315]

Katy Now borders on a single for me. Not sure about who, if anyone, to back up with.

Against the chalk in Ballerina. Will use Qualia and 2 or 3 others.

Discreetly Mine is basically a single. Might back up w/ someone weird like the 6. . . maybe 2.

Afleet Express, Fly Down, Trappe Shot, Friend Or Foe.

[RockHardTen1985]

Katy Now borders on a single for me. Not sure about who, if anyone, to back up with.

Against the chalk in Ballerina. Will use Qualia and 2 or 3 others.

Discreetly Mine is basically a single. Might back up w/ someone weird like the 6. . . maybe 2.

Afleet Express, Fly Down, Trappe Shot, Friend Or Foe.

Friend Or Foe is another toss for me, I forgot about him. I'm not letting Baffert beat me in the Bishop.

[ateamstupid]

Katy Now borders on a single for me. Not sure about who, if anyone, to back up with.

Against the chalk in Ballerina. Will use Qualia and 2 or 3 others.

Discreetly Mine is basically a single. Might back up w/ someone weird like the 6. . . maybe 2.

Afleet Express, Fly Down, Trappe Shot, Friend Or Foe.

Rapport looks like the speed of the speed. I'd take her heads up against Katy Now.

[iamthelurker]

I think Nicky likes Ice Box best.......then Fly Down. I don't think he's that enamored of MR - his quotes abou MR do not exactly radiate confidence.

I think Ice Box is overrated and although I like Fly Down a lot, he didn't show anything in the Jim Dandy.

Fly Down be the winner.

[Dahoss]

Afleet Express, Fly Down, Trappe Shot, Friend Or Foe.

What do you like about Friend or Foe?

[RockHardTen1985]

What do you like about Friend or Foe?


What do you like about First Dude? He has danced all the dances vs the best of this crop and has not been good enough. Now he faces some new guns plus the same horses, and a fair amount of early speed. I think he has very little chance.

[hockey2315]

What do you like about Friend or Foe?

He ran well enough to me last time that I'm tossing him in as my fourth horse. Considering the horses I'm for and the horses I'm against it makes sense to use him at a big price.

[RockHardTen1985]

He ran well enough to me last time that I'm tossing him in as my fourth horse. Considering the horses I'm for and the horses I'm against it makes sense to use him at a big price.

Why do you like Katty Now so much?
Shes logical for sure, she might even be on of my a's. But, a single?

[Dahoss]

What do you like about First Dude? He has danced all the dances vs the best of this crop and has not been good enough. Now he faces some new guns plus the same horses, and a fair amount of early speed. I think he has very little chance.

So First Dude has little chance, but Admiral Alex does? Yeah, that makes sense.

To be honest, I liked First Dude a lot more before I found out Miners Reserve was in the race. But, I think he's better than his last race. Out of the horses that will be near the lead, he's the only one I think will be around at the end and the addition of blinkers should have him more focused. As of right now I'll probably just bet Ice Box to win and use IB, First Dude, Fly Down and Afleet Express in multi's.

I'll probably eat crow, but I want no part of Trappe Shot. I don't think he wants any part of 10 furlongs.

[RockHardTen1985]

So First Dude has little chance, but Admiral Alex does? Yeah, that makes sense.

To be honest, I liked First Dude a lot more before I found out Miners Reserve was in the race. But, I think he's better than his last race. Out of the horses that will be near the lead, he's the only one I think will be around at the end and the addition of blinkers should have him more focused. As of right now I'll probably just bet Ice Box to win and use IB, First Dude, Fly Down and Afleet Express in multi's.

I'll probably eat crow, but I want no part of Trappe Shot. I don't think he wants any part of 10 furlongs.

I want to use Fly Down and Afleet Express in multis and call it a day, but I do not trust Lezcano.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

In the baby race on the Travers undercard ... Dominguez is named to ride on an Albertrani debuter by Henny Hughes out of Stormy Blues that is 12/1 on the morning line.

Stormy Blues won her debut by 16 lengths and was in a recent trivia thread..

http://c1.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/142/l_6dda47710d7b46ddbd518a1e33af54ac.png

Henny Hughes was also a very fast 2yo sprinter ... if that horse is live on the board it should be dangerous.

[hockey2315]

Why do you like Katty Now so much?
Shes logical for sure, she might even be on of my a's. But, a single?

She reminds me of a lot of 3-year-olds who do well turning back after they've failed at longer distances. She can lay close enough to track the Baffert, who will either have to go crazy again to be loose on the lead or get pestered by a few others if they try to slow her down.

[RockHardTen1985]

In the baby race on the Travers undercard ... Dominguez is named to ride on an Albertrani debuter by Henny Hughes out of Stormy Blues that is 12/1 on the morning line.

Stormy Blues won her debut by 16 lengths and was in a recent trivia thread..

http://c1.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/142/l_6dda47710d7b46ddbd518a1e33af54ac.png

Henny Hughes was also a very fast 2yo sprinter ... if that horse is live on the board it should be dangerous.

If its live is the big question. HH has been pretty bad, and it seems like his horses are showing up on turf a lot.
Im actually falling in love with the 4 in there, Im waiting for a PM from Gales to confirm.

[Indian Charlie]

If its live is the big question. HH has been pretty bad, and it seems like his horses are showing up on turf a lot.

Any IC babies on the card?

[tjfla]

First Dude has a way better chance of winning than Admiral Alex however just watch the Belmont to see what will happen. First Dude will lead them around the whole way while posting nice fractions(No Jim Dandy here where 2 horses go 3F in 2 min:p) with Miner's Reserve pushing him.

The problem with ALW and Miner's Reserve and looking at the Jim Dandy is they got away with the lead. This won't happen in this race,First Dude is going out front and he has already shown he can take the lead all the way around.

Sets up perfect for Fly Down,Afleet Express and somewhat Ice Box.

I could see Friend or Foe hitting the board tho at a nice price.

[RockHardTen1985]

Any IC babies on the card?

Im looking at the wrong race, I was talking the 5th.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Any IC babies on the card?

Yeah - if the Pletcher IC colt wins the 6th race - we could probably just concede next years triple crown to him. He's named after FreddyMo.

[Indian Charlie]

Yeah - if the Pletcher IC colt wins the 6th race - we could probably just concede next years triple crown to him. He's named after FreddyMo.

So, he's athletic, swift and smart?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

So, he's athletic, swift and smart?

More like Jewish and loaded with drugs.

[Indian Charlie]

More like Jewish and loaded with drugs.

Isn't that being redundant?

[Indian Charlie]

Yeah - if the Pletcher IC colt wins the 6th race - we could probably just concede next years triple crown to him. He's named after FreddyMo.

Repole stable.


Aren't they the ones that had one recently named "Always wrong Joey" or something like that?

Are they DT'ers?

[iamthelurker]

I want to use Fly Down and Afleet Express in multis and call it a day, but I do not trust Lezcano.

+1 for not trusting Lezcano

[clyde]

Does the Travers follow suit with nearly every other 3-year-old race this year and produce a different winner? It's been a crazy year for the crop.

First Dude... I'm wondering if he has one more shot in him... he's the last horse who came close to beating Lookin at Lucky.

We expect this from you.

[Dahoss]

I'm expecting a much better effort from Malibu Cougar in the 2nd. If you watch the head on of her last, she is forced to take up right as she is beginning to hit her best stride. Have to think she got a lot out of the debut.

[RockHardTen1985]

I'm expecting a much better effort from Malibu Cougar in the 2nd. If you watch the head on of her last, she is forced to take up right as she is beginning to hit her best stride. Have to think she got a lot out of the debut.

I think there is a standout in there.

[RockHardTen1985]

Before you tell me Im being silly because of the GOAT...
Take this info...
The 2 horses pressing her in the maiden race finished last and second to last. The day was huge AGAINST SPEED. This gal ran her EYEBALLS OUT. Im going through the charts of the day now, only 1 wire to wire winner. The early call leader finished 3rd twice... 2 races were total meltdowns even with slow paces.

[Sightseek]

I don't think I could take a stand on one horse in that race -- a few look interesting to me.

[Dahoss]

Before you tell me Im being silly because of the GOAT...
Take this info...
The 2 horses pressing her in the maiden race finished last and second to last. The day was huge AGAINST SPEED. This gal ran her EYEBALLS OUT. Im going through the charts of the day now, only 1 wire to wire winner. The early call leader finished 3rd twice... 2 races were total meltdowns even with slow paces.

Of course she'll be tough, but at 8/5 or less, I'll try and beat her.

[RockHardTen1985]

Of course she'll be tough, but at 8/5 or less, I'll try and beat her.

I might just single her and hope she gets home. 3-5 all look like spreads to me.

[Dahoss]

The 4th and 5th make it impossible for me to go near the pick 4. I'm a little interested in Johnny Two By Four in the 3rd, although that race is another head scratcher.

[RockHardTen1985]

The 4th and 5th make it impossible for me to go near the pick 4. I'm a little interested in Johnny Two By Four in the 3rd, although that race is another head scratcher.

I want the Mott to be a stud.

[freddymo]

I'm expecting a much better effort from Malibu Cougar in the 2nd. If you watch the head on of her last, she is forced to take up right as she is beginning to hit her best stride. Have to think she got a lot out of the debut.

I thought the same.. He should win or at least make an excellent account of himelf.. I thought Nolansgrant kitten in the 4th had a horrendous (trip) in his debut as well. How about Barrel of Love? The rain hopefully adjusted some of the speed bias on the turf and he looks OK, Not for Love 3 year old could be on the improve with 2 turns and fair turf course.. I am not thrilled with taking the short price horses in the 4th.. I will use the Dos Hombres as well he has a bit of a look..

[Sightseek]

A very enjoyable article:

http://www.drf.com/news/fantastic-four-crists-favorite-runnings-travers

[clyde]

^^^^ Was sent article by Ralph Geeker. Only looks at ads in Vanity Fair.

[NTamm1215]

^^^^^ Keeps making us wait for his Travers analysis even after nailing the winner of the Alabammy last week.

[clyde]

^^^^ Snarf!! ...I mean----anxious because has nearing deadline for Traverse pick.

[AlreadyHome]

Trappe Shot

NO DOUT.,, AN THE WINNER IS TRAPPE SHOT :tro::$:

FLY DOWN FOR 2ND.:$:

[clyde]

ET..this is 4 u.


And I don't need no stinking card carriers.




THE TRAVERSE




1 Miner's Reserve



Will reach down deep for something extry in the stretch....and find a hanger.



..uh,no...



crinkle...


trash can






2 Trappe' Shote'


Al false' fave'.





crinkle...


trash can






3 Captain Quigg



Paranoia strikes....gets a shot of Demerol.




..not gunna duh it..








whiiiiiiirrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!









5 A Little Warm

A little stupid as well.


Too dumb to traverse the Traverse.






crinkle...


trash can







6 Ice Box

























=:>














7 Meet ...a Mess


awful







crinkle...


trash can












8 Fly Down


Needs ZipLock.



no


crinkle...


trash can









9 Friend Or Foe


If he doesn't know, how the fucl< should we?




4 -get it





crink-el...


trash can














10 Afleet Again



again !!????





blech




crinkle...


trash can








11 Super Saver


Frequent dyers do not win the Traverse.







nyyyyyyyyyyyoooooooooow!!!!









thud










IceBox brings home the Sorbet.

[Scav]

^^^:D

[NTamm1215]

ET..this is 4 u.


And I don't need no stinking card carriers.




THE TRAVERSE




1 Miner's Reserve



Will reach down deep for something extry in the stretch....and find a hanger.



..uh,no...



crinkle...


trash can






2 Trappe' Shote'


Al false' fave'.





crinkle...


trash can






3 Captain Quigg



Paranoia strikes....gets a shot of Demerol.




..not gunna duh it..








whiiiiiiirrrrrrrrrrrrrr!!









5 A Little Warm

A little stupid as well.


Too dumb to traverse the Traverse.






crinkle...


trash can







6 Ice Box

























=:>














7 Meet ...a Mess


awful







crinkle...


trash can












8 Fly Down


Needs ZipLock.



no


crinkle...


trash can









9 Friend Or Foe


If he doesn't know, how the fucl< should we?




4 -get it





crink-el...


trash can














10 Afleet Again



again !!????





blech




crinkle...


trash can








11 Super Saver


Frequent dyers do not win the Traverse.







nyyyyyyyyyyyoooooooooow!!!!









thud










IceBox brings home the Sorbet.

:) 'Zactly what I was looking for, kind sir.

ET

[Cajungator26]

Friend or Foe for me ... classy hoss who should be good odds and is bred for 10 panels. I don't think we'll see a cold closer win this race tomorrow ... I like Ice Box as much as anyone else, but don't care for the lack of a lead change every time he's close in the stretch.

Good racing luck to everyone! :D

[GPK]

Friend or Foe for me ... classy hoss who should be good odds and is bred for 10 panels. I don't think we'll see a cold closer win this race tomorrow ... I like Ice Box as much as anyone else, but don't care for the lack of a lead change every time he's close in the stretch.

Good racing luck to everyone! :D

:rolleyes:

[clyde]

:) 'Zactly what I was looking for, kind sir.

ET



Very good deal.


Claim it as your own. Least I can do.

[clyde]

Friend or Foe for me ... classy hoss who should be good odds and is bred for 10 panels. I don't think we'll see a cold closer win this race tomorrow ... I like Ice Box as much as anyone else, but don't care for the lack of a lead change every time he's close in the stretch.

Good racing luck to everyone! :D


Steven H. Crist!

[Sightseek]

This is "pretty horsie" but Miss Keller sleeps with a stuffed animal:

http://todmarks.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Day-31-Aug-27/G0000KwkGudhaIdk/I0000wiTAT8P1mIo

[Cajungator26]

This is "pretty horsie" but Miss Keller sleeps with a stuffed animal:

http://todmarks.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Day-31-Aug-27/G0000KwkGudhaIdk/I0000wiTAT8P1mIo

Love that! How cute ... :)

[Cajungator26]

:rolleyes:

:tro:

[skippy3481]

I think english channel wins the travers after all, he was the greatest horse ever...:)

[Arletta]

This is "pretty horsie" but Miss Keller sleeps with a stuffed animal:

http://todmarks.photoshelter.com/gallery-image/Day-31-Aug-27/G0000KwkGudhaIdk/I0000wiTAT8P1mIo

OMG! that is just the most adorable damn thing! I am for sure picking her tomorrow :)

(Plus I still sleep with one :o)

[King Glorious]

Going with First Dude to wire them.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Katy Now borders on a single for me.

Something tiring about her action. See how she doesn't usually come back to race very quickly? She is either real exhausted, or sore from hitting the dirt a lil too hard. I think she needs that lesser class of fillies. I know she can do that ugly stuff, and beat lesser. That one paced stuff isn't gunna be enough to beat these. Rapport, and Beyondallboundarys are solid. There are some others that can upset on their best day. I know JV is a great jock, and the trainer packs it full of powder. Even so, If Katy fires her best, somebody will still get by her (late.) It's really tough to hold on to win graded races when you've got to use that action. Not sure what strategy i'll use yet.

If single = Rapport

If take 2= Rapport n' Beyond all

If deep=Rapport, Beyond all, K Kate, W Case, T Beauty

Was a pathetic ride by Robby on Rapport. M Garcia is a better rider in every way, and especially better on managing speed horses. I don't think they can hook up with her. He will just let her run a little more. It is Saratoga. So, I guess anybody can tire, but I wouldn't count on it. You just can't let a horse run a 21'1 first quarter at Calder. Every fraction was faster than the older girls ran that day. It shouldn't surprise anybody that she'd not be able to get the last quarter.

[pucknut]

when in doubt use class
super saver towers overs this mediocre crop of 3yo's in terms of class
you've even got optional claimers in this race
few graded stakes winners and the rest haven't won or are trying to break through late
when are you ever going to get a derby winner as the third or fourth choice in a travers
when do you see pletcher in a grade 1 as a dog
11/6,4/all
love super saver in this spot
has a race over
the haskell wasn't as bad as it looked and this horse is not in the same sentence as the travers with any of the public handicappers

super sleeper

[Dahoss]

super saver towers overs this mediocre crop of 3yo's in terms of class


He does?

[ateamstupid]

He does?

I don't agree with his reasoning, but I do like Super Saver a bit today. I think his Haskell was better than it looked, he'll sit a decent trip in behind the speed and he's one of the few proven at the distance. He's good value at ~6-1 IMO.

[Dahoss]

I don't agree with his reasoning, but I do like Super Saver a bit today. I think his Haskell was better than it looked, he'll sit a decent trip in behind the speed and he's one of the few proven at the distance. He's good value at ~6-1 IMO.

Yeah if you draw a line through the Preakness he looks a lot better. I just can't get that perfect trip in the Derby out of my mind. It should be interesting to see what Borel does out of the gate.

[alysheba4]

ice box and fly down exacta box.

[Sightseek]

Yeesh, I can't believe Cocalero picked himself back up after not just kissing the dirt once at the break, but twice.

[ateamstupid]

I'm amazed Garcia was able to stay on the horse.

[Sightseek]

The 9 is 7/2 in the 2nd?

[Sightseek]

The 9 is 7/2 in the 2nd?

Greenly wins.

[Dahoss]

Speed seems pretty good huh? :rolleyes:

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I remember that trip on Trappe Shot last time. It wasn't
that great. He could have gotten a little closer than he did to LAL. He wasn't gunna win, but he was a bit better than whatever number he got. I really hate that race today. There are easier races to predict.

[freddymo]

Greenly wins.

Apparently "THEY" knew.. I didnt

[Sightseek]

I liked this 5 in the 5th but was hoping for more than 9/2.

[Sightseek]

Wow.

[freddymo]

Wow.

Indian Charlie just busted a ...

The track is a joke..I cant wait for the TFM's rants

[Sightseek]

Indian Charlie just busted a ...

The track is a joke..I cant wait for the TFM's rants

Considering how they were bet, I don't think Uncle Mo and Alexandra Rylee were track assisted.

[Betsy]

Question: If two horses work in company and one horse blows his field apart, does it say something about the other horse or are workouts/races completely unrelated?

[Sightseek]

Question: If two horses work in company and one horse blows his field apart, does it say something about the other horse or are workouts/races completely unrelated?

Sorry, it's not really a clear answer, but depends on what the trainer is looking for in the work.

[freddymo]

Considering how they were bet, I don't think Uncle Mo and Alexandra Rylee were track assisted.

Well the first race winner drew off like he was miles the best.. While I agree the mdn's were best certainly the track amplified the situation. I am starting to think a Lil Warm is looking VERY tough.

They aren't back on the dirt for 2 hours...Baffert/Rapport are hoping the track stays put

[Betsy]

Sorry, it's not really a clear answer, but depends on what the trainer is looking for in the work.

That's a good answer - thanks!

[Betsy]

Considering how they were bet, I don't think Uncle Mo and Alexandra Rylee were track assisted.


No, but it sucks if the track is completely biased.....

[Sightseek]

Well the first race winner drew off like he was miles the best.. While I agree the mdn's were best certainly the track amplified the situation. I am starting to think a Lil Warm is looking VERY tough.

Litigation Risk must have been thought of as an ok horse before today considering the spots they put him in, Cocalero kissed the dirt and still ran well, Maximus Ruler did nothing, I've never liked Aspire.

[Sightseek]

Well the first race winner drew off like he was miles the best.. While I agree the mdn's were best certainly the track amplified the situation. I am starting to think a Lil Warm is looking VERY tough.

They aren't back on the dirt for 2 hours...Baffert/Rapport are hoping the track stays put

I don't like that horse at all. Bet heavy. :D

[Indian Charlie]

Nice win by Mo, but I'd have to guess those runners behind him were pretty sucky.

I thought that Congie horse was running a nice race, but basically while Uncle Mo ran that insane last 1/4, everyone else was also running like they were going uphill.

[Indian Charlie]

And who are these Repole people??

[Betsy]

And who are these Repole people??

I don't know who else this guy owns, but he owns another Pletcher horse, Stay Thirsty, who Uncle Mo worked with (this is why I asked the question).

14 juvenile winners for Todd at the meet - that's amazing.

[freddymo]

And who are these Repole people??

Mike Repole former exec with very good size piece of the formerly private Vitamin Water.. I young guy from Queens, NY.

[ateamstupid]

I don't know who else this guy owns, but he owns another Pletcher horse, Stay Thirsty, who Uncle Mo worked with (this is why I asked the question).

14 juvenile winners for Todd at the meet - that's amazing.

Repole is running away with the owner's title. Had two winners yesterday too.

[Betsy]

Repole is running away with the owner's title. Had two winners yesterday too.

I was just doing some research on him........what a meet he's having. He had that Tapit 2 year old SW, Never Right Joey.........Driven by Success, etc...
Nice babies he has - I think I read that Uncle Mo is being pointed to the Champagne and obviously Stay Thirsty to the Hopeful. He also owns StopspendingMaria, who I think finished 2nd in the Adirondack.

[clyde]

That's why he is being sent to The Hopeless

[westcoastinvader]

Another stakes win for Martin Garcia in The Victory Ride.

I'm guessing this is his first stakes win at Saratoga?

[freddymo]

I don't like that horse at all. Bet heavy. :D

Appreciate the heads up.. Anybody who thinks you can close on this track is nuts..

[Sightseek]

Appreciate the heads up.. Anybody who thinks you can close on this track is nuts..

Thanks...

Unfortunately it killed my double with Dynaslew. I didn't like her because of the way the horses who beat her ran last, but I did use her defensively in the exacta (didn't have the 2, so I don't think it counts as the terrible sin of redboarding :rolleyes:) and the double with the Ballerina.

[freddymo]

Thanks...

Unfortunately it killed my double with Dynaslew. I didn't like her because of the way the horses who beat her ran last, but I did use her defensively in the exacta (didn't have the 2, so I don't think it counts as the terrible sin of redboarding :rolleyes:) and the double with the Ballerina.

This should be a 1/2 2/1 boat race coming up. WHOOPIE

[freddymo]

Thanks...

Unfortunately it killed my double with Dynaslew. I didn't like her because of the way the horses who beat her ran last, but I did use her defensively in the exacta (didn't have the 2, so I don't think it counts as the terrible sin of redboarding :rolleyes:) and the double with the Ballerina.
I pre bet the card and left the track so I am stuck with a WP on Bank Merger anybody want it for 20% of what I paid?

[Sightseek]

This should be a 1/2 2/1 boat race coming up. WHOOPIE

I used Jessica & Qualia. Maybe a win bet on Rightly So?

[freddymo]

I used Jessica & Qualia. Maybe a win bet on Rightly So?

I would think only the 1 or 2 could win given the track...Who knows?

All I know is Bulldogger is going to be very tough now..

[Sightseek]

Tony Dutrow rules. Less screwed up version of Rick and not even close to being as creepy as Wolfson.

[freddymo]

Wolfson's shoes dont seem to travel well on NYRA tracks..

Getting Evan's and Moore's stock from Jerkins didn't suck for Dutrow

[Sightseek]

:D


(hopefully Qualia is ok)

[freddymo]

:D

Shocking result

[Sightseek]

Shocking result

Would have been nice if she hadn't been 9/2 breaking from the gate...

[Sightseek]

I would think only the 1 or 2 could win given the track...Who knows?

All I know is Bulldogger is going to be very tough now..

The win bet drew me even for the day -- I hope Bulldogger pulls this off...

[freddymo]

Would have been nice if she hadn't been 9/2 breaking from the gate...

I guess this is a Bulldogger's lose...I thought 63 bucks was stealing..

[freddymo]

The win bet drew me even for the day -- I hope Bulldogger pulls this off...

I am doomed with Bank Merger who really should be given a head start given the surface..

[Sightseek]

Only one dirt 2-turn race on the card today...

[Sightseek]

Hey Rollo -

Make that Grade 1 winner Discreetly Mine. :)

[Sightseek]

I am doomed with Bank Merger who really should be given a head start given the surface..

Did you WP?

[freddymo]

Did you WP?

Yes Whoopie!!! the horse is very very good..

[Betsy]

Andy, on the MSG show, said Pletcher was very concerned with the track bias. He said this before the race; afterwards, he said that Pletcher just decided that he didnt want the best horse in the race to lose because of the track. They did come home slowly, but that's understandable given the fractions. DM is very speedy, but he prefers to stalk, so I don't think his finishing fractions off of a 44 and change half are a big deal.

However, not running until the BC Sprint is a big deal...........then again, perhaps he'll need the rest as this is two big efforts in a row.

One more thing Andy said: with the slow closing fractions, no one really made up ground, so that's a big deal with regards to the Travers

[Sightseek]

Oddly, Ice Box is favored right now?

[freddymo]

Oddly, Ice Box is favored right now?

I wish exchange wagering was available

[Betsy]

Oddly, Ice Box is favored right now?

I think he's overrated..........

Miner's Reserve is close to 50-1; I don't think he's going to win, but that's nice juicy price

[King Glorious]

Realizing that one was for 3yos and the other for older females, I'd take Rightly So's race over Discreetly Mine's as the better sprint race.

[Bigsmc]

Any chance these pinheads go crazy fighting for the front and this is the one race that collapses today?

[JerseyJ]

I think it's laughable that Admiral Alex is 8-1...he should be 800-1. May take a flyer on Trappe Shot at 9/2.

[King Glorious]

Taking First Dude to finally turn the tables on Fly Down with Trappe Shot third.

[pointman]

Any chance these pinheads go crazy fighting for the front and this is the one race that collapses today?

Certainly it could happen, but Miner's Reserve has the speed to hold the rail and has to be moved up at over 30-1 right now.

[tjfla]

Agree how is Admiral Alex at 8-1? and they realize that Ice Box is a closer and no rain?

[Sightseek]

They could go crazy up front with Dude in blinks & Miners. A Little Warm is very patient...

[HaloWishingwell]

Kentucky Derby revisited 1 and 2

[tjfla]

Can someone post the results 1-4 when its over for us!!!!!

THANKS

[Sightseek]

Oh man, that sucks for Zito again.

[JerseyJ]

Super Saver sucks...3-5 he's retired after this race.

[tjfla]

What were the results?

[Bigsmc]

Can someone post the results 1-4 when its over for us!!!!!

THANKS

7
8
4
10

[Betsy]

As high as I was about DM, I am really crushed by Fly Down's loss

[Indian Charlie]

Super Saver sucks...3-5 he's retired after this race.

I doubt that.

The BCC is on the only surface he can win over.

[clyde]

The fix was in.





Again.

[clyde]

As high as I was about DM, I am really crushed by Fly Down's loss

Good.

[King Glorious]

I thought the 3yos were supposed to improve as the year goes on. Why are these getting worse? That was horrible. They walked in 2:03.28

Afleet Express by a nostril over Fly Down. First Dude was done at the top of the lane and still outfinished those that engulfed him and ran third.

[Betsy]

Good.


What is your problem? Oh wait, don't bother - we don't have all year to wait while you list your problems.

[clyde]

What is your problem? Oh wait, don't bother - we don't have all year to wait while you list your problems.


Charlee.....this character is terrible.


Go get a new one.

[clyde]

She's 2 steps away from the Godzilla freak out.

[clyde]

I'm not waiting around, but my guess is soemthing like Rickie Lee Derby Girlie is next

[westcoastinvader]

7
8
4
10

Sure looked like a dead heat to me real time.

I guess the photo was conclusive?

I turned it back to football since the other part of my Afleet Express bet was out of the $$......Trappe Shot.

[Indian Charlie]

When they did the close up in slow mo, it was pretty obvious who won.

[Cannon Shell]

I doubt that.

The BCC is on the only surface he can win over.

And if they find him a nice NW3/optional claimer on that surface he has a shot to win.

[King Glorious]

And if they find him a nice NW3/optional claimer on that surface he has a shot to win.

If for some reason Blame and Quality Road don't show up, the BC Classic would be just such a race.

[Dahoss]

Has Admiral Alex finished yet?

[tjfla]

Has Admiral Alex finished yet?

Best part was he was better odds than Afleet Express with like 19 Minutes left

[freddymo]

And if they find him a nice NW3/optional claimer on that surface he has a shot to win.

In the slop ta' boot

[Indian Charlie]

And if they find him a nice NW3/optional claimer on that surface he has a shot to win.

I'm not saying he's a lock in the BCC, but hell, this group of horses aiming to the BCC ain't much.

[Indian Charlie]

In the slop ta' boot

I don't buy the slop being the reason he won those 2 races at CD.

Hard to prove though until he runs there again and it's not wet.

[philcski]

I'm done with First Dude.

Since I'm not sold on A Little Warm going a mile and a quarter, I'm going with Afleet Express.


Two highly regarded 2yo's go in allowance races earlier in the card, and probably take money- and I don't like either of them in these spots. Could be good opportunities.

Ka-pow

[clyde]

Only you.

[NTamm1215]

I'm not saying he's a lock in the BCC, but hell, this group of horses aiming to the BCC ain't much.

He can be in the mix in the photo for 5th with the rest of the 3YOs in the BCC.

NT

[Smooth Operator]

I'm not saying he's a lock in the BCC, but hell, this group of horses aiming to the BCC ain't much.

:rolleyes:

[hockey2315]

He can be in the mix in the photo for 5th with the rest of the 3YOs in the BCC.

NT

Wanna give me odds?

[NTamm1215]

Wanna give me odds?

You like Super Saver in the BC Classic?

NT

[CSC]

You like Super Saver in the BC Classic?

NT

He's burn't toast, I'll admit it, I was wrong about him running big today.

[Smooth Operator]

Hilarious to see all those gate-to-wire jobs in the 87 or so dirt sprints at Toga today


Yeah, dirt rules :rolleyes:

[NTamm1215]

Hilarious to see all those gate-to-wire jobs in the 87 or so dirt sprints at Toga today


Yeah, dirt rules :rolleyes:

I know, dirt sucks. If it wasn't for dirt we'd all think Richard's Kid was a legitimate handicap horse, right?

[the_fat_man]

I know, dirt sucks. If it wasn't for dirt we'd all think Richard's Kid was a legitimate handicap horse, right?

Whatever you can say about POLY, and much negative has, you never get the type of **** on it that happened today at SAR. This was a joke today. Good thing they watered the track before the Travers, and, by that point, ALL the jocks were hip to the bias, so there was some early action, and the race played out reasonably fairly. But I certainly didn't bet it as I had no idea how the track would play for it. Biased DIRT, pretty much biased TURF, for most of the meet, makes for some real healthy gambling. :rolleyes:

As for RK, I'm sure that very fast dirt horse, Quality Road, would have no problem kicking RK's ass going 12F on POLY. QR is a 'legitimate handicap horse', isn't he?

[Smooth Operator]

Why do I get the feeling that there won't be a water truck in sight before the PE tomorrow … lol

[CSC]

I know, dirt sucks. If it wasn't for dirt we'd all think Richard's Kid was a legitimate handicap horse, right?

It is what it is, if you are going to make pre-conditions about grade 1's then what would you call that Woodward field last yr excluding Rachel? A grade 2...No, it goes down as a grade 1. You don't selectively downgrade a race because of the competition or the surface. It's all fair in the wash.

[Dahoss]

As for RK, I'm sure that very fast dirt horse, Quality Road, would have no problem kicking RK's ass going 12F on POLY. QR is a 'legitimate handicap horse', isn't he?

This is about as stupid as it gets.

[Dahoss]

It is what it is, if you are going to make pre-conditions about grade 1's then what would you call that Woodward field last yr excluding Rachel? A grade 2...No, it goes down as a grade 1. You don't selectively downgrade a race because of the competition or the surface. It's all fair in the wash.

I spoke too soon.

[CSC]

I spoke too soon.

Yes you did, and I answered too soon.

[NTamm1215]

As for RK, I'm sure that very fast dirt horse, Quality Road, would have no problem kicking RK's ass going 12F on POLY. QR is a 'legitimate handicap horse', isn't he?

This is dumb and beneath you.

NT

[NTamm1215]

It is what it is, if you are going to make pre-conditions about grade 1's then what would you call that Woodward field last yr excluding Rachel? A grade 2...No, it goes down as a grade 1. You don't selectively downgrade a race because of the competition or the surface. It's all fair in the wash.

Did I say anything about Grade Is? Can you possibly make a coherent statement without it having something to do with Rachel or Zenyatta?

The fact of the matter is that Richard's Kid was not even a graded stakes caliber horse on dirt. He has now won the biggest handicap race on the west coast two years in a row. Is any of that untrue?

NT

[Smooth Operator]

Lol … could you see speed merchant QR trying to go 12 panels on syn

[RockHardTen1985]

Whatever you can say about POLY, and much negative has, you never get the type of **** on it that happened today at SAR. This was a joke today. Good thing they watered the track before the Travers, and, by that point, ALL the jocks were hip to the bias, so there was some early action, and the race played out reasonably fairly. But I certainly didn't bet it as I had no idea how the track would play for it. Biased DIRT, pretty much biased TURF, for most of the meet, makes for some real healthy gambling. :rolleyes:

As for RK, I'm sure that very fast dirt horse, Quality Road, would have no problem kicking RK's ass going 12F on POLY. QR is a 'legitimate handicap horse', isn't he?


WTF? What does going 12f on **** surfaces have to do with anything? QR would eat RK alive on dirt from 1f-12f. He would also beat him on shitty rubber going up to 10f. 12f would likely be pushing it and the GOAT 1 would have him ready to fire late.

[CSC]

Did I say anything about Grade Is? Can you possibly make a coherent statement without it having something to do with Rachel or Zenyatta?

The fact of the matter is that Richard's Kid was not even a graded stakes caliber horse on dirt. He has now won the biggest handicap race on the west coast two years in a row. Is any of that untrue?

NT

Until a hour ago I think my last post about Rachel was roughly 3 months ago, when I said I would not mention her until she ran in a grade 1 this year. I'm not sure you have your timeline right or you have mistaken me for someone else but please get your facts right...

[Travis Stone]

Until a hour ago I think my last post about Rachel was roughly 3 months ago. I'm not sure you have your timeline right or you have mistaken me for someone else but please get your facts right?

How many of your 4,000 posts are Rachel related? Be honest with yourself.

[RockHardTen1985]

How many of your 4,000 posts are Rachel related? Be honest with yourself.


You should post more... 1.07 ppd is not enough for me.

[Indian Charlie]

:rolleyes:

What, do you really believe Z will even be in the BCC?

I say at best there is maybe a 40% chance she goes.

It's probably more like 15%.

[NTamm1215]

Until a hour ago I think my last post about Rachel was roughly 3 months ago, when I said I would not mention her until she ran in a grade 1 this year. I'm not sure you have your timeline right or you have mistaken me for someone else but please get your facts right...

You somehow saw fit to include the 2009 Woodward in your commentary, was that a coincidence?

[Indian Charlie]

You have to remember that CSC1985 thinks that a turf course with no water on it is yielding, or at best, soft.

He doesn't see things right.

[Dahoss]

I'd like to see Discreetly Mine and Rapport go at it going 12F on POLY. That would really be something.

[Smooth Operator]

A horse isn't legit till it proves it can go gate-to-wire in a Toga dirt sprint … lol

[Smooth Operator]

What, do you really believe Z will even be in the BCC?

I say at best there is maybe a 40% chance she goes.

It's probably more like 15%.

:rolleyes:

[RockHardTen1985]

I'd like to see Discreetly Mine and Rapport go at it going 12F on POLY. That would really be something.


Rapport might bottom him out. She did improve a ton getting on the rubber.

[the_fat_man]

This is dumb and beneath you.

NT

What's dumb and beneath me is having to play BIASED tracks on major racing days. Unlike you, and some of the others here, racing for me is about handicapping and trying to make money. So, give me a fair course OR a consistently biased course, and I'll be just fine. It doesn't really matter to me which horse shapes up better historically or which horse is 'faster' on a given surface. Until a system is in place that can accurately measure 'speed', and reconcile it, over the different surfaces, it probably shouldn't matter to you either.

[Indian Charlie]

What, do you really believe Z will even be in the BCC?

I say at best there is maybe a 40% chance she goes.

It's probably more like 15%.

:rolleyes:

I'll take that as an emphatic drooling yes.

[the_fat_man]

WTF? What does going 12f on **** surfaces have to do with anything? QR would eat RK alive on dirt from 1f-12f. He would also beat him on shitty rubber going up to 10f. 12f would likely be pushing it and the GOAT 1 would have him ready to fire late.

He had his chance and REFUSED. :rolleyes:

No Mas

[DaTruth]

What was the name of the horse who was scratched from the 2008 Santa Margarita instead of facing Nashoba's Key. Something about not being 100% ready.

[CSC]

How many of your 4,000 posts are Rachel related? Be honest with yourself.

Ask the entire forum this question how many posts include Rachel or Zenyatta? What do you think that % would be? Indian Charlie or who I affectionately coined Guano has by far the best % for Zenyatta posts.

[CSC]

You have to remember that CSC1985 thinks that a turf course with no water on it is yielding, or at best, soft.

He doesn't see things right.

You sir have no idea what you are talking about.

[Dahoss]

What was the name of the horse who was scratched from the 2008 Santa Margarita instead of facing Nashoba's Key. Something about not being 100% ready.

Excellent point. The ducking has been going on for a long time.

[hockey2315]

You like Super Saver in the BC Classic?

NT

Should've read closer. . . thought you were talking about Afleet Express.

[DaTruth]

Excellent point. The ducking has been going on for a long time.

I'd forgotten all about it (plus what a good horse Nashoba's Key was) until DrugS reminded us.

[CSC]

You somehow saw fit to include the 2009 Woodward in your commentary, was that a coincidence?

I'm not going to obfuscate or lie, I thought it was the best race to illustrate the point; however you missed the preamble about other than her, it was a grade 2 field so obviously I was complimenting her quality as gr.1 in 09.

[Danzig]

i can really see why this sport has a hard time getting new fans. many of the old fans are tiresome.
and if we can't find a reason to watch, and we're supposed to be fans, why would we expect anyone else to want to watch?

[PatCummings]

i can really see why this sport has a hard time getting new fans. many of the old fans are tiresome.
and if we can't find a reason to watch, and we're supposed to be fans, why would we expect anyone else to want to watch?

TVG's "The Late Double" - now that will attract more fans than it turns away

[Bigsmc]

What's dumb and beneath me is having to play BIASED tracks on major racing days. Unlike you, and some of the others here, racing for me is about handicapping and trying to make money. So, give me a fair course OR a consistently biased course, and I'll be just fine. It doesn't really matter to me which horse shapes up better historically or which horse is 'faster' on a given surface. Until a system is in place that can accurately measure 'speed', and reconcile it, over the different surfaces, it probably shouldn't matter to you either.

How difficult is it to recognize what is going on and adjust your thinking on the fly or take you money and play somewhere else?

[fpsoxfan]

How difficult is it to recognize what is going on and adjust your thinking on the fly or take you money and play somewhere else?

Oh..you mean like most handicappers do? What is so hard for people to understand about that. Track bias is part of the game. It's a hell of a lot easier than trying to figure out who's going to run the fastest for the final 50 yards on rubber.

[Danzig]

Oh..you mean like most handicappers do? What is so hard for people to understand about that. Track bias is part of the game. It's a hell of a lot easier than trying to figure out who's going to run the fastest for the final 50 yards on rubber.


and that is a flaw in tfm's logic. he derides bias on a dirt track, but isn't there a bias on poly? so, it seems the issue for him isn't a bias, he just prefers to bet poly. good for him-perhaps not good for everyone tho.

[slotdirt]

What's dumb and beneath me is having to play BIASED tracks on major racing days. Unlike you, and some of the others here, racing for me is about handicapping and trying to make money. So, give me a fair course OR a consistently biased course, and I'll be just fine. It doesn't really matter to me which horse shapes up better historically or which horse is 'faster' on a given surface. Until a system is in place that can accurately measure 'speed', and reconcile it, over the different surfaces, it probably shouldn't matter to you either.

why do you act like dirt tracks are the only ones with bias? Did you play Del Mar at all last weekend? A horse couldn't win on the lead if they had a 100 yard head start.

[cmorioles]

105 Beyer for the Travers.

Discreetly Mine, 93.
Rightly So, 100.
Rapport, 103.
Dynaslew, 99.

[freddymo]

105 Beyer for the Travers.

Discreetly Mine, 93.
Rightly So, 100.
Rapport, 103.
Dynaslew, 99.

So Discreetly Mine regressed 18pts gotcha.. Maybe that 111 is the product of 6.5f Spaland?

[cmorioles]

So Discreetly Mine regressed 18pts gotcha.. Maybe that 111 is the product of 6.5f Spaland?

I don't think so. Surely the scintillating fractions, which were 180 degrees from his last race, were a big part of it. It does show the bias was absolutely brutal, the closers sucked big time, or both.

I had him running 103 pace, 109 speed last time. This time, if I agree with the 93, it will be 129 pace, 93 speed. Those are actually pretty similar overall, but rare to see the same horse change so much. I think it was the bias. It caused the jockeys to sell out for the front end

[Betsy]

I don't think so. Surely the scintillating fractions, which were 180 degrees from his last race, were a big part of it. It does show the bias was absolutely brutal, the closers sucked big time, or both.

I had him running 103 pace, 109 speed last time. This time, if I agree with the 93, it will be 129 pace, 93 speed. Those are actually pretty similar overall, but rare to see the same horse change so much. I think it was the bias. It caused the jockeys to sell out for the front end

I agree - I don't think the final time is indicative necessarily of a huge regression. DM's much preferred running style is to stalk, but Todd had to call an audible and change tactics thanks to the track bias. Any horse would be cooked by those fractions, so his closing that slowly doesn't bother me. Had he run his usual stalking race, he wouldn't have been tiring like that. Steve Crist and Andy discussed this on Talking Horses. Everyone knew the race would come up slow in terms of final speed figures, but the pace guys would conclude that DM ran very well.

Unless the colt is dog tired, I hope Todd changes his mind and runs him once more before the BC

[cmorioles]

He will be hard pressed to win a 6f BC in my opinion, unless he had another prep and showed more ability.

[Betsy]

He will be hard pressed to win a 6f BC in my opinion, unless he had another prep and showed more ability.

He doesn't have enough ability?

[cmorioles]

He doesn't have enough ability?

In my opinion, he has not shown it yet. He'll be a big underlay in the BC.

[ateamstupid]

Might have been posted elsewhere, but what was Uncle Mo's fig?