8/1 (MTH): Haskell (G1), Oceanport & Matchmaker (G3's)

[tjfla]

IN
Ice Box
Lookin at Lucky
First Dude
Super Saver
Afleet Again
Uptowncharleybrown
Trappe Shot
Our Dark Knight
Concord Point-- Possible

[hockey2315]

Does anybody have a prediction for what price Trappe Shot will be? This has the potential to be one of those situations that comes around very rarely.

[ateamstupid]

Does anybody have a prediction for what price Trappe Shot will be? This has the potential to be one of those situations that comes around very rarely.

Because you like him or because you hate him? It's tough to predict with such a deep field, but my guess would be at least 5-2 with all of the TC horses in. Maybe as high as 4-1 if people go nuts on Lucky.

[hockey2315]

Because I like him. I think he'll be much higher than 5-2.

[ateamstupid]

Because I like him. I think he'll be much higher than 5-2.

He's the buzz horse and the Beyer horse, he won't go off higher than 4-1. I thought you said he was a cripple?

[hockey2315]

He was, but it looks like they've got him back together. I think he's by far the most talented in the field and there are four triple crown winners/placers to take a ton of money.

[RockHardTen1985]

I have said for weeks only 2 horses can win the Haskell. Lucky or Trappe Shot. I agree with Joseph about the odds, I can see him being as low as 5-2 and as high as 9-2. Super Saver and Ice Box IMO are hopeless in this spot.

[Danzig]

you're not at all concerned with lucky having had an illness? i thought they said it would be close getting him here. at the price he'd be at, i fail to see a reason to choose him here.

how will this race unfold? pacesetters? will there be enough speed for the closers, ice box and afleet again? doesn't seem this will fit the bill for the two of them.

what to think of uptown, who fares well vs trappe shot in the mornings from what i've heard on the radio?

[Travis Stone]

I think the crop is ripe for a newcomer... everyone who ran in the first part of the year who is still around is not anything particularly special...

[Danzig]

I think the crop is ripe for a newcomer... everyone who ran in the first part of the year who is still around is not anything particularly special...

i think so too. this crop seems pretty....bland. no standout, opportunity for a payoff by beating a favorite.

[VOL JACK]

IN
Ice Box
Lookin at Lucky
First Dude
Super Saver
Afleet Again
Uptowncharleybrown
Trappe Shot
Our Dark Knight

Who is IN trained by?

[Indian Charlie]

I have said for weeks only 2 horses can win the Haskell. Lucky or Trappe Shot. I agree with Joseph about the odds, I can see him being as low as 5-2 and as high as 9-2. Super Saver and Ice Box IMO are hopeless in this spot.

I wonder what the Super Saver and Ice Box exacta is going to pay.

[Danzig]

I wonder what the Super Saver and Ice Box exacta is going to pay.

!!

[tjfla]

Who is IN trained by?

Coupled entry with Ice Box-Guess he is the rabbit:D:D

[VOL JACK]

Does anybody have a prediction for what price Trappe Shot will be? This has the potential to be one of those situations that comes around very rarely.

I suck at this...but here goes.

Ice Box...............................6-1
Lookin at Lucky...................3-1
First Dude............................10-1
Super Saver.........................6-1
Afleet Again..........................20-1
Uptowncharleybrown............20-1
Trappe Shot..........................5-2
Our Dark Knight....................12-1

[RockHardTen1985]

you're not at all concerned with lucky having had an illness? i thought they said it would be close getting him here. at the price he'd be at, i fail to see a reason to choose him here.

how will this race unfold? pacesetters? will there be enough speed for the closers, ice box and afleet again? doesn't seem this will fit the bill for the two of them.

what to think of uptown, who fares well vs trappe shot in the mornings from what i've heard on the radio?


Of the 2 Im heavily leaning towards Lucky winning this race.

[RockHardTen1985]

I suck at this...but here goes.

Ice Box...............................6-1
Lookin at Lucky...................3-1
First Dude............................10-1
Super Saver.........................6-1
Afleet Again..........................20-1
Uptowncharleybrown............20-1
Trappe Shot..........................5-2
Our Dark Knight....................12-1

NO WAY VJ. Derby winner and runner up 6-1? Trainer by Zito and Todd? NO WAY. Ice Box might be ignored a bit, but Super Saver WILL BE BET.

[tjfla]

NO WAY VJ. Derby winner and runner up 6-1? Trainer by Zito and Todd? NO WAY. Ice Box might be ignored a bit, but Super Saver WILL BE BET.

Gotta agree there SS will be bet but unless a horse with early speed enters Ice Box is just gonna be forgot about

Still would be nice to get 2 more horses in this field but who knows?

[RockHardTen1985]

Gotta agree there SS will be bet but unless a horse with early speed enters Ice Box is just gonna be forgot about

Still would be nice to get 2 more horses in this field but who knows?

Trappe Shot, Super Saver and First Dude all have early speed. I gotta think Our Dark Knight would be on the pace also.

[Indian Charlie]

Of the 2 Im heavily leaning towards Lucky winning this race.

As if you could lean any other way.


J/K!!!

[VOL JACK]

Gotta agree there SS will be bet but unless a horse with early speed enters Ice Box is just gonna be forgot about

Still would be nice to get 2 more horses in this field but who knows?

I don't think so.
Everyone know how magical Borel is at CD and, SS stunk up Pimlico.
I wouldn't surprised if the Preakness exacta is repeated here.

[RockHardTen1985]

Im saying right now, Lucky wins this race. Baffert has him ready to roll. He wins this and runs huge in the Travers, September 1st he is the clear cut leader in the 3yr old division. A division that is wide open right now.

[randallscott35]

Im saying right now, Lucky wins this race. Baffert has him ready to roll. He wins this and runs huge in the Travers, September 1st he is the clear cut leader in the 3yr old division. A division that is wide open right now.

He'll be the favorite. You aren't saying much

[RockHardTen1985]

He'll be the favorite. You aren't saying much

Randy this is not a one race prediction. Its a 3yr old championship prediction, for a class/crop that is WIDE OPEN RIGHT NOW. He might be the favorite, but he might not be. If he is, it will be around 5-2 not odds on or anything like that.

[Sightseek]

You just can't fly a horse over the Rockies that often and expect to win the Haskell.

[randallscott35]

Randy this is not a one race prediction. Its a 3yr old championship prediction, for a class/crop that is WIDE OPEN RIGHT NOW. He might be the favorite, but he might not be. If he is, it will be around 5-2 not odds on or anything like that.

Again you aren't saying much of anything here. But be my guest.

[hockey2315]

Trappe Shot won't be favored. Mine That Bird was just favored in the Firecracker. . . enough said.

[RockHardTen1985]

Again you aren't saying much of anything here. But be my guest.

Ok Randy. This is as wide open as its ever been. 3 different triple crown winners, none of the major triple crown prep winners are even relevant right now. Sometimes I think your retarded, but then its clear you cant help yourself and do it on purpose.

PS- Do you like my Avatar? I thought out of everyone you would love it the most.

[letswastemoney]

Trappe Shot won't be favored. Mine That Bird was just favored in the Firecracker. . . enough said.
I agree, they always make the Derby winner the favorite in his first race after the Triple Crown.

I can't see Super Saver going off higher than 3-1. He will take every casual dollar that's out there from people who look at the program and remember "Hey that horse won the Kentucky Derby so he must be good enough to win this race!"

[randallscott35]

I agree, they always make the Derby winner the favorite in his first race after the Triple Crown.

I can't see Super Saver going off higher than 3-1. He will take every casual dollar that's out there from people who look at the program and remember "Hey that horse won the Kentucky Derby so he must be good enough to win this race!"

I can't see a way on earth LAL isn't favored. Think about it. He was the Derby fave. He was the same price as the Derby winner in the Preakness and SS ran horribly. He's a clear 2-1 or less in here at post.

[RockHardTen1985]

I can't see a way on earth LAL isn't favored. Think about it. He was the Derby fave. He was the same price as the Derby winner in the Preakness and SS ran horribly. He's a clear 2-1 or less in here at post.

Without getting into the odds on everyone...

Lucky 2-1

Saver 5-2,3-1

Trappe Shot 3-1,7-2

Someone really good is ignored....
Likely Ice Box, who is hopeless anyway.

[randallscott35]

Without getting into the odds on everyone...

Lucky 2-1

Saver 5-2,3-1

Trappe Shot 3-1,7-2

Someone really good is ignored....
Likely Ice Box, who is hopeless anyway.

I prefer Our Dark Knight to Ice Box, yes.

[RockHardTen1985]

I prefer Our Dark Knight to Ice Box, yes.


LOL we agree on that.

[knickslions2]

Im saying right now, Lucky wins this race. Baffert has him ready to roll. He wins this and runs huge in the Travers, September 1st he is the clear cut leader in the 3yr old division. A division that is wide open right now.

Have to agree with you here. Lucky will beat these horses. I still think Twirling Candy is the best three year old but won't have enough races under his belt.

[the_fat_man]

I still think Twirling Candy is the best three year old but won't have enough races under his belt.

Based on what: running down Macias? How about this horse actually beats something, and covers a real distance of ground first? I realize there's really nothing out there but he's not even in the discussion yet.

[tjfla]

Too make it even better it seems Concord Point is possible for the race

[RockHardTen1985]

Too make it even better it seems Concord Point is possible for the race


Now he is SERIOUS. If he comes everything changes. I dont see why Bob would not send him to the Jim Dandy.

[Sightseek]

Why does everyone think Ice Box is totally hopeless? I'm unsure whether I would use him on Sunday, especially since the field hasn't even been drawn, but I don't think he is as bad as his Belmont race.

[randallscott35]

Now he is SERIOUS. If he comes everything changes. I dont see why Bob would not send him to the Jim Dandy.

As a rabbit for Lucky

[tjfla]

Ya thats where I thought he was headed too but have seen 3 websites mention him as possible for the Haskell and nothing about him to the Jim Dandy

[NTamm1215]

Have to agree with you here. Lucky will beat these horses. I still think Twirling Candy is the best three year old but won't have enough races under his belt.

Todd Schrupp, is that you?

Seriously, a 3YO who has won a restricted race at a mile on the turf? I mean, I know we all want to be the one to notice the next superstar, and that this group of 3YOs is not particularly strong but Twirling Candy has zero credentials to be mentioned as a serious 3YO right now.

NT

[knickslions2]

Todd Schrupp, is that you?

Seriously, a 3YO who has won a restricted race at a mile on the turf? I mean, I know we all want to be the one to notice the next superstar, and that this group of 3YOs is not particularly strong but Twirling Candy has zero credentials to be mentioned as a serious 3YO right now.

NT

Hey all I said is I think he is the best three year old out there. I don't expect anyone else to think that. If he can get some races under his belt he would prove me either wrong or right. He has all the tools to be a good solid horse in a weak class.

[Handicappy]

I suck at this...but here goes.

Ice Box...............................6-1
Lookin at Lucky...................3-1
First Dude............................10-1
Super Saver.........................6-1
Afleet Again..........................20-1
Uptowncharleybrown............20-1
Trappe Shot..........................5-2
Our Dark Knight....................12-1

You don't suck at choosing your Avatar that's for sure. I am anxious to see how Trappe Shot can do against these. It is a very aggressive spotting for a barn that tends to be conservative in placing horses. He certainly could be every bit as good as KMac has been saying.

[RockHardTen1985]

You don't suck at choosing your Avatar that's for sure. I am anxious to see how Trappe Shot can do against these. It is a very aggressive spotting for a barn that tends to be conservative in placing horses. He certainly could be every bit as good as KMac has been saying.

How is it aggressive at all? Im pretty sure he has the top last out beyer and won the local prep. I dont get this comment at all. Not trying to be a dick either, I just think its a super logical spot, they have been conservative enough with him facing FL Breds twice. Its time to see how good he really is.

[VOL JACK]

You don't suck at choosing your Avatar that's for sure. I am anxious to see how Trappe Shot can do against these. It is a very aggressive spotting for a barn that tends to be conservative in placing horses. He certainly could be every bit as good as KMac has been saying.

Its not aggressive at all.
They have taken the most conservative route they could up to this point in his career.
He was a mortal lock in the Woody Stephens (yes I said so beforehand) and they passed for an Allowance race.

[RockHardTen1985]

Its not aggressive at all.
They have taken the most conservative route they could up to this point in his career.
He was a mortal lock in the Woody Stephens (yes I said so beforehand) and they passed for an Allowance race.

Did you copy me word for word?

[Handicappy]

How is it aggressive at all? Im pretty sure he has the top last out beyer and won the local prep. I dont get this comment at all. Not trying to be a dick either, I just think its a super logical spot, they have been conservative enough with him facing FL Breds twice. Its time to see how good he really is.
I do agree with you and your not being a dick. The barn is usually very conservative and have been with him up to this point. The Allowance spot a couple back is one of those type of decisions I think. I do like the horse and was glad they didn't rush him as a 2 yr old. I'll be watching that's for sure. I just hope I can get 4/1 on him and the crowd dumps money elsewhere.

[tjfla]

1. Lookin At Lucky, Bob Baffert, Martin Garcia, 5/2
2. Afleet Again, Robert Reid Jr., Joe Bravo, 12/1
3. Ice Box, Nick Zito, Jose Lezcano, 9/2
4. First Dude, Dale Romans, Kent Desormeaux, 6/1
5. Our Dark Knight, Nick Zito, Elvis Trujillo 15/1
6. Super Saver, Todd Pletcher, Calvin Borel, 3/1
7. Uptowncharlybrown, Kiaran McLaughlin, Rajiv Maragh, 15/1
8. Trappe Shot, Kiaran McLaughlin, Alan Garcia, 3/1


LAL get Lucky #1 Again and seems Pleasant Prince and Concord Point went for easier races in Ohio and WV Derby

[randallscott35]

Bob hates the draw. Get a grip. Its an 8 horse field and the 1 is a great place to be at Monmouth

[Alan07]

9th (4:04) Matchmaker S. (G3)

1 1/8 Miles (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Talkin About Love Marquez C H Jr 116 L
2 Eye of Taurus Castro E 116 L
3 Yippety Yip Garcia M 116 L
4 Obsequious Fragoso P 116 L
5 Unbridled Essence Lopez P 118 L
6 Tizaqueena Maragh R 123 L
7 Cherokee Queen Trujillo E 118 L
8 Mystic Miracle Bravo J 118 L
9 Quiet Meadow Garcia Alan 116 L
10 Tottie (GB) Lezcano J 116 L
11 Giant Mover Dominguez R A 116 L



11th (5:08) Oceanport S. (G3)

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $200,000

1 Nownownow Lopez P 116 Blk-On L
2 Violon Sacre Lezcano J 118 L
3 Whatsthescript (IRE) Trujillo E 116 L
4 Strike a Deal Lopez C C 123 L
5 Cherokee Artist Dominguez R A 118 L
6 Get Serious Fragoso P 120 L
7 Roman Tiger Bravo J 120 L
8 Tybalt Maragh R 116 L



12th (5:45) Haskell Invitational S. (G1)

1 1/8 Miles | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000

1 Lookin At Lucky Garcia M 122 L
2 Afleet Again Bravo J 118 L
3 Ice Box Lezcano J 120 L
4 First Dude Dominguez R A 118 L
5 Our Dark Knight Trujillo E 118 L
6 Super Saver Borel C H 122 L
7 Uptowncharlybrown Maragh R 118 L
8 Trappe Shot Garcia Alan 118 L

[NTamm1215]

Terrific card, great job by Monmouth, I'm looking forward to the whole day.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Terrific card, great job by Monmouth, I'm looking forward to the whole day.

NT


Now your a Monmouth guy, UGH.

[ateamstupid]

Terrific card, great job by Monmouth, I'm looking forward to the whole day.

NT

Since the Haskell is the 12th, does anybody know if the Pick 5 will start in the 8th instead of the 6th?

[philcski]

Since the Haskell is the 12th, does anybody know if the Pick 5 will start in the 8th instead of the 6th?

I think it stays as the 6th- at least it did the last few years (when it started in the 5th.)

[ateamstupid]

I think it stays as the 6th- at least it did the last few years (when it started in the 5th.)

That's a terrible decision then. Imagine if the Travers wasn't part of a guaranteed Pick 4 or Pick 6.

[GoIrish]

The P5 starts with the 6th. The late P4 starts with the 11th.

[lemoncrush]

Terrific card, great job by Monmouth, I'm looking forward to the whole day.

NT

I figured the Sunday card would be loaded. Their lineup on Saturday is dreadful.

[Danzig]

1. Lookin At Lucky M. Garcia B. Baffert 5-2

2. Afleet Again J. Bravo R. Reid 12-1

3. Ice Box J. Lezcano N. Zito 9-2

4. First Dude R. Dominguez D. Romans 6-1

5. Our Dark Knight E. Trujillo N. Zito 15-1

6. Super Saver C. Borel T. Pletcher 3-1

7. Uptowncharlybrown R. Maragh K McLaughlin 15-1

8. Trappe Shot A. Garcia K. McLaughlin 3-1

[keithting]

I know that Trappe Shot is the "now horse" but...

does it bother anyone that he has not yet run 9 furlongs this late into his 3-yr old campaign?

He does have a nice race over the Monmouth oval, but he'll need to deal with that outside post.

All in all, I guess he'll be the fav in a very interesting Haskell....

[Sightseek]

Uptowncharlybrown has been scratched because of a fever. (per his facebook page)

[Danzig]

Uptowncharlybrown has been scratched because of a fever. (per his facebook page)

well, so much for that.

[AeWingnut]

You just can't fly a horse over the Rockies that often and expect to win the Haskell.

:tro: :tro: :tro:

[AeWingnut]

Uptowncharlybrown has been scratched because of a fever. (per his facebook page)

this is disappointing. I thought he was a complete toss

[Hoist Her Flag]

I'm starting to have doubts about trappe shot. Lucky and s saver for me

[letswastemoney]

I know that Trappe Shot is the "now horse" but...

does it bother anyone that he has not yet run 9 furlongs this late into his 3-yr old campaign?

He does have a nice race over the Monmouth oval, but he'll need to deal with that outside post.

All in all, I guess he'll be the fav in a very interesting Haskell....It would be very shocking to me if he was the favorite.

Granted, Super Saver and LAL do not have the fan base of Mine That Bird perhaps. But they are still Triple Crown champions and people that don't look at the PPs will choose them immediately.

[ateamstupid]

LAL opens at 3/5, the Derby winner 12-1.

[Sightseek]

Best Haskell field ever? :zz:

[Hoist Her Flag]

Those slow synthetic figures sure hurt lucky

[AeWingnut]

How in the world did Lookin at Lucky win
I thought flying over the Rockies was going to be his downfall

[2Hot4TV]

Ya think Uptowncharliebrown had a chance to beat Looking at lucky?

[randallscott35]

Ho hum. Garcia took him 3 wide in the first turn. 3 wide in the far turn and he won by daylight. Got a neg 2 in the Preakness. He got a fig equivalent or better in this IMO.

[2Hot4TV]

It would be very shocking to me if he was the favorite.

Granted, Super Saver and LAL do not have the fan base of Mine That Bird perhaps. But they are still Triple Crown champions and people that don't look at the PPs will choose them immediately.

When you pp you need to start looking at class and the NOW horse rarely (more like never) beats the dominate class and FASTER horse.

[10 pnt move up]

He is a slow synthetic horse who always beats a bunch of bad california horses

signed,

most of this board 5 months or so ago


He shat all over that field

[RockHardTen1985]

I have said for weeks only 2 horses can win the Haskell. Lucky or Trappe Shot. I agree with Joseph about the odds, I can see him being as low as 5-2 and as high as 9-2. Super Saver and Ice Box IMO are hopeless in this spot.



1-2

[randallscott35]

1-2

He was 6-5. Keep your pants on. 2nd place was a clear 5/2....Keep pants on.

[RockHardTen1985]

He was 6-5. Keep your pants on. 2nd place was a clear 5/2....Keep pants on.

$17.20 on the exacta was a GIANT OVERLAY....It would have been value at $10.

[RockHardTen1985]

He is a slow synthetic horse who always beats a bunch of bad california horses

signed,

most of this board 5 months or so ago


He shat all over that field


The beyer will be good enough, Im guessing 110-115 range.

[AeWingnut]

1-2

you want Kudos for figuring out that the 1st and second choice came in?
Really?

call me when you get an unlikely 40-1 shot to win

[booner]

Help me out fellas.....what was the order of finish? I'm at work and can't get any results.

[AeWingnut]

Help me out fellas.....what was the order of finish? I'm at work and can't get any results.

1-8-4-6

Lookin at Lucky
Trappe Shot
First Dude
Super Saver

[ateamstupid]

The beyer will be good enough, Im guessing 110-115 range.

I highly doubt that.

[RockHardTen1985]

I highly doubt that.


I dont think its crazy to say Trappe Shot ran the same race, do you?

[ateamstupid]

I dont think its crazy to say Trappe Shot ran the same race, do you?

That's subjective. What isn't subjective is the time, which was pedestrian. It wasn't a wicked fast track to begin with, and perhaps it got slower throughout the day, but a 110-115 Beyer still seems unlikely compared to the other dirt races IMO.

[brianwspencer]

He is a slow synthetic horse who always beats a bunch of bad california horses

signed,

most of this board 5 months or so ago


Was this really an epidemic 5 months ago here?

Not so sure, but don't let that stop you.

[Coach Pants]

Glad I missed out on today's wagering. Only a.ssholes get excited about 6/5 shots. They're the same type of people that wear jerseys of their favorite players.

[booner]

1-8-4-6

Lookin at Lucky
Trappe Shot
First Dude
Super Saver

Thanks!

[Danzig]

Glad I missed out on today's wagering. Only a.ssholes get excited about 6/5 shots. They're the same type of people that wear jerseys of their favorite players.

yeah, i didn't bother. couldn't come up with an alt to lucky. soon as they put the camera on bob and bodhi i changed the channel. but not too quickly to see the time. what a crop this is...yawn

[RockHardTen1985]

yeah, i didn't bother. couldn't come up with an alt to lucky. soon as they put the camera on bob and bodhi i changed the channel. but not too quickly to see the time. what a crop this is...yawn


LOL

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I dont think its crazy to say Trappe Shot ran the same race, do you?

Trappe Shot had terrible position after a slow start - and took the worst of some race riding going into the first turn.

When he was caught behind Lookin At Lucky early - it was over for him.

I hope they cut Trappe Shot back to 7 furlongs for the King's Bishop where he would be very tough to beat... but they'll probably follow the money into the Travers.

Omniscient (winner of Race #3) will get the exact same Beyer figure that Lookin At Lucky will unless the choose to split it. No way in hell it's a 115

[3kings]

Glad I missed out on today's wagering. Only a.ssholes get excited about 6/5 shots. They're the same type of people that wear jerseys of their favorite players.
:tro::tro:

[Scav]

Trappe Shot had terrible position after a slow start - and took the worst of some race riding going into the first turn.

When he was caught behind Lookin At Lucky early - it was over for him.

I hope they cut Trappe Shot back to 7 furlongs for the King's Bishop where he would be very tough to beat... but they'll probably follow the money into the Travers.

Omniscient (winner of Race #3) will get the exact same Beyer figure that Lookin At Lucky will unless the choose to split it. No way in hell it's a 115

More importantly are you still against Lucky in the Travers per your FB tout? And why?

Some things I took from the Haskell today

1) Baffert has a clue in obviously instructing Garcia to get his ass off the rail. My friend told me today that the rail hasn't been the place to be

2) Bravo sacrificed his horse to try and make Lucky move early knowing he was getting a great trip, I think it cost his horse 2nd or 3rd

3) Does Baffert have horses at Saratoga this summer? If he does, I would really like him to ship Lucky to Toga instead of going all the way back to California

[Betsy]

Trappe Shot had terrible position after a slow start - and took the worst of some race riding going into the first turn.

When he was caught behind Lookin At Lucky early - it was over for him.

I hope they cut Trappe Shot back to 7 furlongs for the King's Bishop where he would be very tough to beat... but they'll probably follow the money into the Travers.

Omniscient (winner of Race #3) will get the exact same Beyer figure that Lookin At Lucky will unless the choose to split it. No way in hell it's a 115

Do you think Trappe Shot doesn't want to go 1 1/4 or just that this was a hard race and you think he'd be better of skipping the Travers? He's a very talented colt- I was impressed, even though he was clearly 2nd best.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

More importantly are you still against him in the Travers per your FB tout? And why?

Yes. Everything went just as I hoped it would in the Haskell...however, what I saw in the other two 3yo races was less than inspiring.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Do you think Trappe Shot doesn't want to go 1 1/4 or just that this was a hard race and you think he'd be better of skipping the Travers? He's a very talented colt- I was impressed, even though he was clearly 2nd best.

I think he could get 10fs ... but I also think he's a lot better at 7fs at this stage of his development. MOTO take I would think.

[fpsoxfan]

I dont think its crazy to say Trappe Shot ran the same race, do you?

Same race as who?

[ateamstupid]

3) Does Baffert have horses at Saratoga this summer? If he does, I would really like him to ship Lucky to Toga instead of going all the way back to California

Baffert doesn't have stalls at Saratoga, but he often stables horses with John Terranova in New York.

[the_fat_man]

1) Baffert has a clue in obviously instructing Garcia to get his ass off the rail. My friend told me today that the rail hasn't been the place to be



They asked Peagram after the race what he thought whe they drew the rail yet again. He responded: "Good thing we have Martin Garcia". Didn't think about it at the time but clearly this is a dig against Gomez. Well done, Mike.

[CSC]

They asked Peagram after the race what he thought whe they drew the rail yet again. He responded: "Good thing we have Martin Garcia". Didn't think about it at the time but clearly this is a dig against Gomez. Well done, Mike.

Yeah, but he's still not as good as Rosario according to IDS, even though this is 2010, I suppose this is his breakout year if he can prove this isn't a one year abberation.

[the_fat_man]

Yeah, but he's still not as good as Rosario according to IDS, even though this is 2010, I suppose this is his breakout year if he can prove this isn't a one year abberation.

IDS?

He couldn't lick Rosario's boots. Rosario's ride on Skipshot is the ride of the year.

[CSC]

IDS?

He couldn't lick Rosario's boots. Rosario's ride on Skipshot is the ride of the year.

Short for I DrugS. You have to admit Garcia has improved this year, I don't know what Vic did with him, but he is not nearly the disaster he once was.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yeah, but he's still not as good as Rosario according to IDS, even though this is 2010, I suppose this is his breakout year if he can prove this isn't a one year abberation.

This is his breakout year?

Martin Garcia is currently 4-for-56 at Del Mar - winning at 7% with an ROI of $0.72

He was 8-for-123 - winning at 6% with an ROI of $1.03 at Del Mar last year.

Some breakout year.

The only thing that has changed is that the guy is entrenched in Baffert's barn and has picked up some caddy's from Mitchell and Sadler.

[CSC]

This is his breakout year?

Martin Garcia is currently 4-for-56 at Del Mar - winning at 7% with an ROI of $0.72

He was 8-for-123 - winning at 6% with an ROI of $1.03 at Del Mar last year.

Some breakout year.

The only thing that has changed is that the guy is entrenched in Baffert's barn and has picked up some caddy's from Mitchell and Sadler.

No one is saying he is the second coming of anything, but I think it's not accurate to use such a select sample as a 2 week old Delmar meet, you should know this. Whether you agree or not, His wins in the following races is a break out year for someone that was a no name in SO Cal just a year ago.

Haskell (2010)
Lone Star Derby (2010)
Palos Verdes Handicap (2010)
Strub Stakes (2010)
Southwest Stakes (2010)
Acorn Stakes (2010)
Hollywood Oaks (2010)
Preakness Stakes (2010)

[Rupert Pupkin]

This is his breakout year?

Martin Garcia is currently 4-for-56 at Del Mar - winning at 7% with an ROI of $0.72

He was 8-for-123 - winning at 6% with an ROI of $1.03 at Del Mar last year.

Some breakout year.

The only thing that has changed is that the guy is entrenched in Baffert's barn and has picked up some caddy's from Mitchell and Sadler.

So he's off to a cold start at Del Mar. What is more important, the fact that he's off to a slow start at Del Mar or the fact that he's won 105 races this year and is the 5th leading rider in the country in terms of money won?

Baffert can get anyone he wants to ride for him. He uses Garcia because Garcia has become one of the best riders in the country.

[cakes44]

The guy keeps good horses out of trouble...period. If he would have lost either the Preakness or Haskell with his rides in those races, I can't imagine the sh!t he would get with those wide rides.

What is his record and ROI on the turf again, Drugs?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

So he's off to a cold start at Del Mar. What is more important, the fact that he's off to a slow start at Del Mar or the fact that he's won 105 races this year and is the 5th leading rider in the country in terms of money won?

He's ridden 646 mounts this year - winning 16% (in the land of the small fields) and his ROI is $1.60 ... which means his mounts have yielded a 20% loss on every dollar bet - and he's losing more than the win takeout.


Baffert can get anyone he wants to ride for him. He uses Garcia because Garcia has become one of the best riders in the country.

Garcia is winning more races because Baffert is using him.

[the_fat_man]

Let's put things in perspective: Garcia is to Baffert what Velasquez is to Pletcher. It's not about saving ground or putting in good rides on these horses but, rather, about keeping them out of trouble so that the elixir can kick in late stretch. So, Johnny V is pretty much always wide on these horses, as, even though he's basically a EUNUCH when it comes to race riding, he knows that they'll have something xtra when they need it.

Garcia can't finish as well as JV but he doesn't need to as, most of the time, he's on speed types, and, let's face it, outside of Bejarano and Rosario, who does he really need to outfinish these days?

Baffert had a difficult choice: continue riding the Mongoloid Idiot Espinoza or the 'wait a minute while I twirl the reins' Gomez OR go to someone who can at least get the basics correct. Tough choice.:rolleyes: I mean, at this point, he'd ride Pedroza over the other 2 bozos.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The guy keeps good horses out of trouble...period. If he would have lost either the Preakness or Haskell with his rides in those races, I can't imagine the sh!t he would get with those wide rides.

What is his record and ROI on the turf again, Drugs?

He sucks on the turf because his inability to save ground gets exposed and because Baffert's barn isn't loaded with turf horses.

Here are Martin Garcia's stats in turf routes:

2010: 11-for-113 (9% wins) $1.12 ROI

2009: 6-for-109 (5% wins) $0.56 ROI

2008: 11-for-114 (9% wins) $1.00 ROI

2007: 8-for-111 (7% wins) $1.76 ROI


But hey, put him on some caddy's and let him get widest, and he's brilliant.

[Betsy]

I think he could get 10fs ... but I also think he's a lot better at 7fs at this stage of his development. MOTO take I would think.



Thanks! I'll be waiting to hear from McLaughlin........I do think they'll go Travers.

[Rupert Pupkin]

He's ridden 646 mounts this year - winning 16% (in the land of the small fields) and his ROI is $1.60 ... which means his mounts have yielded a 20% loss on every dollar bet - and he's losing more than the win takeout.




Garcia is winning more races because Baffert is using him.

How many of his 105 wins this year are for Baffert? Maybe 35?

What is the ROI of any of the top 10 jocks? I bet most of them are right around $1.68. By sheer luck, some will be slighlty higher and some will be slightly lower. I would judge a jock by watching him ride, rather than looking at his ROI.

If Garcia wins on some 25-1 shot next week, he will be winning above the takeout. All it takes is one longshot.

I love Garcia. I think he is extremely talented. He looks great on a horse and he has good instincts.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Joel Rosario's ridden almost 5,000 mounts for his entire career and he's showing a flat bet profit with them.

In 2010, he's 37-for-131 with a 28% win percentage and a $2.75 ROI in synthetic routes.

And yes - if you spend a few years watching Rosario ride and spend a few years watching Garcia ride ... one guy is like a Ruth Chris steak and the other guy is like the angus burger from burger king.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Joel Rosario's ridden almost 5,000 mounts for his entire career and he's showing a flat bet profit with them.

In 2010, he's 37-for-131 with a 28% win percentage and a $2.75 ROI in synthetic routes.

And yes - if you spend a few years watching Rosario ride and spend a few years watching Garcia ride ... one guy is like a Ruth Chris steak and the other guy is like the angus burger from burger king.

I don't care how Rosario is doing in synthetic routes this year. You're picking and choosing stats to try to strengthen your argument. Let's compare apples to apples. You said that Garcia's ROI for 2010 is $1.60. What is Rosario's ROI for 2010? What is Dominguez' ROI for 2010? What is John Velaquez' ROI for 2010?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't care how Rosario is doing in synthetic routes this year. You're picking and choosing stats to try to strengthen your argument. Let's compare apples to apples. You said that Garcia's ROI for 2010 is $1.60. What is Rosario's ROI for 2010? What is Dominguez' ROI for 2010? What is John Velaquez' ROI for 2010?

Rosario $1.86 - The single worst year of his entire career - not because he's riding any worse but because his name recognition hurts him now - where it helped him when he was considered a nobuddy a few years ago.

Dominguez - $1.61 - he's winning 25% for the year and was once king in the ROI stat for several years about 12 years ago. He hasn't tailed off badly as a rider over the last two years - another case of name recognition hurting him.

Velazquez - $1.64 - He's the Martin Garcia of the East in terms of how he rides now.

The stats are just stats - you have to actually watch how these guys ride to appreciate how unspectacular Garcia is.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

How many of his 105 wins this year are for Baffert? Maybe 35?

He's 44-for-157 with Baffert.

About 42% of his wins this year have been for the Baffert barn. About 58% of his wins have come for a trainer other than Baffert.

[westcoastinvader]

Was this really an epidemic 5 months ago here?

Not so sure, but don't let that stop you.

I'll offer a 2nd opinion that it was.

I believe there were many posters referring to him regularly as "Looking at Sucky."


Now he's won The Preakness and The Haskell.

As did Rachel Alexandra to cement her Super Star status.

[philcski]

The beyer will be good enough, Im guessing 110-115 range.

Not even close. Without going too deep into the card... I get about a 101-102.

[Rupert Pupkin]

He's 44-for-157 with Baffert.

About 42% of his wins this year have been for the Baffert barn. About 58% of his wins have come for a trainer other than Baffert.

I admit that is a high number but there are plenty of jocks out there that have a fairly high percentage of their wins from one barn. For a lot of years I bet that at least 30-35% of Johnny V's wins were for Pletcher.

I have a question for you. You say that you don't think Garcia is a very good jockey. He's 44 for 157 (42%) this year for Baffert. Do you think Baffert would have done better if he used someone else on those horses? Off the top of your head, can you come up with even one race where Garcia cost Baffert a win this year? I think Garcia has ridden lights out for Baffert this year. I highly doubt any other jock would have done better with those mounts. It would be hard to improve on 42%.

[randallscott35]

I'll offer a 2nd opinion that it was.

I believe there were many posters referring to him regularly as "Looking at Sucky."


Now he's won The Preakness and The Haskell.

As did Rachel Alexandra to cement her Super Star status.

Apparently you missed the KY Oaks last year. Oh and that Woodward thing to.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Not even close. Without going too deep into the card... I get about a 101-102.

I'll bet it's higher. I think they'll give him something in the 105-109 range.

[philcski]

Most surprising result of the day at Monmouth- a Pletcher trainee with a TG figure 2 points faster than any other pays $17.60 in an 8 horse field. WHAT?!?

[philcski]

I'll offer a 2nd opinion that it was.

I believe there were many posters referring to him regularly as "Looking at Sucky."


Now he's won The Preakness and The Haskell.

As did Rachel Alexandra to cement her Super Star status.

Well I still think he's mediocre... but the best of the crop, which says a lot about the other 3yo's.

I'll bet it's higher. I think they'll give him something in the 105-109 range.

See Drugs' post. If they don't split the variant (and they shouldn't), he gets the same figure as Omnisicent, whose previous career top was a 94 (last out). I do think he improved off that race- but not more than 4-5 lengths.

[Sightseek]

I'll bet it's higher. I think they'll give him something in the 105-109 range.

105 so far.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Both the Haskell and Jim Dandy Beyer almost certainly will be 105.

Omniscient gets whatever Lookin At Lucky gets. A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve ran back to the Delaware race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Well I still think he's mediocre... but the best of the crop, which says a lot about the other 3yo's.

I think Eskanderya was miles the best of this sad pitiful crop.

[ateamstupid]

I have a question for you. You say that you don't think Garcia is a very good jockey. He's 44 for 157 (42%) this year for Baffert. Do you think Baffert would have done better if he used someone else on those horses? Off the top of your head, can you come up with even one race where Garcia cost Baffert a win this year? I think Garcia has ridden lights out for Baffert this year. I highly doubt any other jock would have done better with those mounts. It would be hard to improve on 42%.

44-for-157 isn't 42%, it's 28%.

[Sightseek]

Both the Haskell and Jim Dandy Beyer almost certainly will be 105.

Omniscient gets whatever Lookin At Lucky gets. A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve ran back to the Delaware race.

A Little Warm got a 103.

[philcski]

I think Eskanderya was miles the best of this sad pitiful crop.

Forgot about him. Agree.

44-for-157 isn't 42%, it's 28%.

Since when?!?

[Danzig]

Forgot about him. Agree.



Since when?!?

when i do the math, it's 28.

[CSC]

That's ironic this is what I said to Indian Charlie in a post earlier in the day...I'll never be misconstrued with Issac Newton or Pythagoras, good to see I am not alone here. But come on guys and gals it's simple division :D

[Danzig]

i rounded in my head and came up with roughly one quarter...160 divided by 40...so no way 157 and 44 can be almost half.

[ateamstupid]

when i do the math, it's 28.

Pretty sure Phil was being sarcastic. It's 28%, which is about average for a jockey riding for a powerhouse barn like Baffert's.

[Danzig]

Pretty sure Phil was being sarcastic. It's 28%, which is about average for a jockey riding for a powerhouse barn like Baffert's.

could be.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Pretty sure Phil was being sarcastic. It's 28%, which is about average for a jockey riding for a powerhouse barn like Baffert's.

Yes - Rupert obviously got the 42% stuck in his head when I told him that about 42% of Martin Garcia's total wins this year have come for Baffert and 58% for other trainers not named Baffert.

Having first dibs in the Baffert barn is huge.

In 2009, when Baffert and Gomez teamed up - their record was 95-41-19-9 - for a 43.2% win percentage and a $2.38 ROI.

Gomez is a different type of rider than Garcia ... he'll save ground and every once in a while one will get trapped or stopped. Garcia will put them in a position so that if the horse is 2 lengths the best - he'll win by a half length - but he very rarely gets stopped.

[cmorioles]

Both the Haskell and Jim Dandy Beyer almost certainly will be 105.

Omniscient gets whatever Lookin At Lucky gets. A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve ran back to the Delaware race.

105 for LAL and 103 for the the Dandy.

[Rupert Pupkin]

44-for-157 isn't 42%, it's 28%.

I was mixed up. As DrugS said, I had the 42% figure in my head from the other stat. Anyway, even 28% is a great number. I can't remember Garcia blowing any for Baffert this year. I think he's ridden great for him.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Yes - Rupert obviously got the 42% stuck in his head when I told him that about 42% of Martin Garcia's total wins this year have come for Baffert and 58% for other trainers not named Baffert.

Having first dibs in the Baffert barn is huge.

In 2009, when Baffert and Gomez teamed up - their record was 95-41-19-9 - for a 43.2% win percentage and a $2.38 ROI.

Gomez is a different type of rider than Garcia ... he'll save ground and every once in a while one will get trapped or stopped. Garcia will put them in a position so that if the horse is 2 lengths the best - he'll win by a half length - but he very rarely gets stopped.

I completely agree with you that having first dibs for any of the top barns is huge. But practically all of these top trainers have great eyes and they won't use jocks that are making mistakes. The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well. We will see if Garcia lasts with Baffert. If you are right and Garcia is not a particularly good jock, he probably won't last long. If I am right and Garcia truly has become a top jock, he will probably be riding for Baffert for a long time.

By the way, the number for the Garcia/Baffert combo in 2009-2010 is 30% wins and an ROI of $2.12. That is from 194 mounts.

[Scav]

I completely agree with you that having first dibs for any of the top barns is huge. But practically all of these top trainers have great eyes and they won't use jocks that are making mistakes. The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well. We will see if Garcia lasts with Baffert. If you are right and Garcia is not a particularly good jock, he probably won't last long. If I am right and Garcia truly has become a top jock, he will probably be riding for Baffert for a long time.

By the way, the number for the Garcia/Baffert combo in 2009-2010 is 30% wins and an ROI of $2.12. That is from 194 mounts.


It is what happened with Michael Baze here, Catalano called for a reliever and called Sellers in. Baze is still getting mounts that Cat felt he rode well or horses he has been working but the others have gone to Sellers or Geroux

[dalakhani]

I completely agree with you that having first dibs for any of the top barns is huge. But practically all of these top trainers have great eyes and they won't use jocks that are making mistakes. The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well. We will see if Garcia lasts with Baffert. If you are right and Garcia is not a particularly good jock, he probably won't last long. If I am right and Garcia truly has become a top jock, he will probably be riding for Baffert for a long time.

By the way, the number for the Garcia/Baffert combo in 2009-2010 is 30% wins and an ROI of $2.12. That is from 194 mounts.

Since when does Baffert keep his riders around for a long time? He has ridden about every top jockey on the west coast at one time or another.

Garcia is an aggressive rider and rides to instructions but is very average as a whole. Yeah, he doesnt screw up the best horse in the race but he isn't going to put in a winning ride and make the difference when the horse isn't clearly the best either. Yeah, he has made a difference on lucky. Unlike Gomez, he rides the horse like he is best in the race and the horse has delivered twice. What jockey couldn't do what he has done on top of that horse in those races?

Drugs's point about his turf riding is salient. The turf is where you find out who can really ride. Garcia has not done very well there.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Since when does Baffert keep his riders around for a long time? He has ridden about every top jockey on the west coast at one time or another.

Garcia is an aggressive rider and rides to instructions but is very average as a whole. Yeah, he doesnt screw up the best horse in the race but he isn't going to put in a winning ride and make the difference when the horse isn't clearly the best either. Yeah, he has made a difference on lucky. Unlike Gomez, he rides the horse like he is best in the race and the horse has delivered twice. What jockey couldn't do what he has done on top of that horse in those races?

Drugs's point about his turf riding is salient. The turf is where you find out who can really ride. Garcia has not done very well there.

I'm not saying that Garcia will necessarily be riding #1 for Baffert forever. But if he continues to ride well for him, I would expect him to at least be riding a lot for him for the next few years. If Garcia starts giving him a lot of bad rides, he will be done in 6 months.

Garcia is still learning but I think he's geting better all the time. I think he's stepped up to another level this year. When you ride for a guy as sharp as Baffert, you're going to learn a lot because these top trainers actually teach these guys things.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well.

Baffert called Garcia something like "the best jockey out there at working horses in the morning" or something like that .. and I would assume having an agent named Pegram wouldn't hurt your cause with getting the benefit of the doubt from that specific barn.

The problem with a lot of Garcia's bad rides is that they don't pass for bad rides because they're not bad rides visually so much as they're bad rides analytically.

Gomez's ride on Lookin at Lucky in the SA Derby was only a bad one because Espinoza went above and beyond the call of duty of race riding. You think if Gomez had LAL widest on both turns he would have ran down Sidney's Candy that day?

There are going to be a lot of times where Garcia is going to come up a half length short with a clear trip - where someone like a Gomez would have won by a length on the same horse with one of his ground saving well timed good rides.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Since when does Baffert keep his riders around for a long time? He has ridden about every top jockey on the west coast at one time or another.

Garcia is an aggressive rider and rides to instructions but is very average as a whole. Yeah, he doesnt screw up the best horse in the race but he isn't going to put in a winning ride and make the difference when the horse isn't clearly the best either. Yeah, he has made a difference on lucky. Unlike Gomez, he rides the horse like he is best in the race and the horse has delivered twice. What jockey couldn't do what he has done on top of that horse in those races?

Drugs's point about his turf riding is salient. The turf is where you find out who can really ride. Garcia has not done very well there.

I bet you will see Garcia's numbers go way up on the grass. There is no reason for him not to do well on the grass. He's a good rider and he's a smart rider. He's a much better rider now than he used to be. I think some trainers are hesitant to put a young rider on their good grass horses before the young rider is really proven. Now that Garcia is starting to prove himself to people, I think I think you will see him getting better mounts on the grass and I think his numbers on the grass will go way up. Time will tell.

[westcoastinvader]

I'm not saying that Garcia will necessarily be riding #1 for Baffert forever. But if he continues to ride well for him, I would expect him to at least be riding a lot for him for the next few years. If Garcia starts giving him a lot of bad rides, he will be done in 6 months.

Garcia is still learning but I think he's geting better all the time. I think he's stepped up to another level this year. When you ride for a guy as sharp as Baffert, you're going to learn a lot because these top trainers actually teach these guys things.


I've been following Martin Garcia since I first realized he was the guy who once made a sandwich for me at the deli up the street, and then was on a horse I was looking at in the form.

I've been following thoroughbreds for 51 years. Started when my parents took me to the track at the age of 3. First thing I ever read aloud was the DRF, and THAT's a true story.

Martin Garcia has only been on thoroughbreds for about 60 months.

I've met him, and know as a fact he is a smart and intuitive guy. I do speak a good bit of albeit midwestern US learned Spanish.

I made pretty good money handicapping and wagering on Martin Garcia mounts when I realized he was a firestorm happening in the year he won a riding title over Russell Baze out here.

Martin Garcia is of course still on a learning curve at the top levels.

My only suggestion is to never get off betting a horse just because you doubt Martin Garcia.

If it's the horse's day to compete, Martin will find a way.

[Antitrust32]

Pretty sure Phil was being sarcastic. It's 28%, which is about average for a jockey riding for a powerhouse barn like Baffert's.

what I gathered was it would have been 42% of his total wins on the year, which seems to be correct. 44/105

[CSC]

I completely agree with you that having first dibs for any of the top barns is huge. But practically all of these top trainers have great eyes and they won't use jocks that are making mistakes. The only reason Baffert starting givng Garcia first dibs was because Garcia was riding great for him.

Even if a jock is lucky enough to get in with a big barn, they will be out very quick if they are giving bad rides. Baffert won't hesitate to give a guy the boot if the guy isn't riding well. We will see if Garcia lasts with Baffert. If you are right and Garcia is not a particularly good jock, he probably won't last long. If I am right and Garcia truly has become a top jock, he will probably be riding for Baffert for a long time.

By the way, the number for the Garcia/Baffert combo in 2009-2010 is 30% wins and an ROI of $2.12. That is from 194 mounts.

Rupert,

Agree about Baffert not hesitating giving a jockey the boot, throughout his training career he has had a love hate relationship with his riders, he's one of the most outspoken trainer's in the game that will not hesitate switching things up at a drop of a hat. He has used Expinoza on and off, Flores, Smith, Solis, Gomez, he even replaced HOF jock Mccarron once, used Antley for a short time so it is inevitable that Martin Garcia's time will come; however as long as they have success together and Garcia continues to develop as a rider, and more importantly do the things that Baffert likes on the track he will continue to get the choice mounts from his stable. I liken it to what happened to Alan Garcia when he broke through when he became Kieran Mclaughlin's go to rider, he got his break with him, his profile grew and he has parlayed that into better mounts with other stables. Regardless here is what Baffert said of Garcia's ride yesterday and in particular losing ground.

"He broke fine and Martin eased him to the outside," Baffert said of the winner. "I knew we’d lose a little bit of ground, but that was the winning move.

“At the three-eighths pole, that’s when you know you’ve got a good horse because they’ll be pulling you. Martin was still sitting, but when he pushed the button, the horse really took off. You can’t make that move on synthetic, but on dirt it was the winning move. That’s really what I like to see -- running fast horses on fast tracks.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Fernando Jara could have been on been LAL yesterday and nothing would change.

[CSC]

Fernando Jara could have been on been LAL yesterday and nothing would change.

That might be a stretch, remember his ride in the Donn when he was stopped cold but Invasor bailed him out BIG TIME.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Jara was a glorified sack of oats .. and not a very good judge of a lot of things - and yeah, Garcia is a little better than him I will admit ... but it doesn't take much to win on Caddy's.

[10 pnt move up]

If your hay is built on being the main rider in Baffert barn my advice would be not to get too comfortable and be very careful about flipping other trainers, what goes around comes around.

[cakes44]

Javier Santiago was running #1 call for Baffert a few years back. How's he doing now?

[MaTH716]

Javier Santiago was running #1 call for Baffert a few years back. How's he doing now?

Was he really first call? I thought the story was that he was a tall kid that Baffert stumbled upon/discovered in Puerto Rico and gave him a few mounts. I remember Santiago riding and winning a few races for him, but I think those were the days that Victor was his go to guy.

[10 pnt move up]

Was he really first call? I thought the story was that he was a tall kid that Baffert stumbled upon/discovered in Puerto Rico and gave him a few mounts. I remember Santiago riding and winning a few races for him, but I think those were the days that Victor was his go to guy.

yes for about 8 weeks or so he was.

[westcoastinvader]

Was he really first call? I thought the story was that he was a tall kid that Baffert stumbled upon/discovered in Puerto Rico and gave him a few mounts. I remember Santiago riding and winning a few races for him, but I think those were the days that Victor was his go to guy.

One difference though is that Martin Garcia has a meet riding title notch in his belt.

Albeit NorCal circuit.

But facts are facts, he bested the all time winning jockey in the world in that meet. Something rarely done in NorCal.

Take your Baze and NorCal shots all you want, and I'll agree on some.

But Martin Garcia is very solid jockey that I would put on any horse I ever own any day of the week.

If it's the horse's day, Martin will be in the thick of the finish line action.

[westcoastinvader]

For those who are saying Lookin at Lucky is just the best of a weak 3 year old crop, I'll offer THAT is EXACTLY what was said of Seattle Slew real time in 1977.

I'll wonder how things might have been if Martin Garcia was aboard Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby....


Martin has certainly gotten him nice routes in his Preakness and Haskell.

[ateamstupid]

For those who are saying Lookin at Lucky is just the best of a weak 3 year old crop, I'll offer THAT is EXACTLY what was said of Seattle Slew real time in 1977.

Come on.

[slotdirt]

Ridiculous.

[Indian Charlie]

I think the Giacamo crop was comparable to the 73 (3yo) crop, with Giacamo being the equal to the to the top one from that year.

[LARHAGE]

For those who are saying Lookin at Lucky is just the best of a weak 3 year old crop, I'll offer THAT is EXACTLY what was said of Seattle Slew real time in 1977.

I'll wonder how things might have been if Martin Garcia was aboard Lookin at Lucky in the Santa Anita Derby and Kentucky Derby....


Martin has certainly gotten him nice routes in his Preakness and Haskell.



Come on, you honestly think a mediocre Garcia would have won the Derby from the #1 hole? His Preakness and Haskell rides could have been duplicated by Barrington Harvey and been the same result, wide, premature moves against complete filth, that ride wouldn't have gotten close to Sidneys Candy. If anyone thinks Garcia is the reason Lucky has won his last two, than I have a bridge to sell, take away Baffert and Garca's numbers speak for themself. This whole thing is ridiculous, he's an average jock at best. Gomez has gotten a completely ridiculous rap here, I'd rather have him in a coma on my horse over Garcia, anyday of the week.

[3kings]

Come on, you honestly think a mediocre Garcia would have won the Derby from the #1 hole? His Preakness and Haskell rides could have been duplicated by Barrington Harvey and been the same result, wide, premature moves against complete filth, that ride wouldn't have gotten close to Sidneys Candy. If anyone thinks Garcia is the reason Lucky has won his last two, than I have a bridge to sell, take away Baffert and Garca's numbers speak for themself. This whole thing is ridiculous, he's an average jock at best. Gomez has gotten a completely ridiculous rap here, I'd rather have him in a coma on my horse over Garcia, anyday of the week.

You are in luck then, because G. Gomez has been riding like he is in a coma the last few months.

[LARHAGE]

And despite that he still outrides Garcia. Gomez is riding a lot of longshots at the elite meet in the world, Garcia is competing in short fields on Baffert caddies, take away Baffert and Garcia
would be spreading mayo on wheat.

[CSC]

And despite that he still outrides Garcia. Gomez is riding a lot of longshots at the elite meet in the world, Garcia is competing in short fields on Baffert caddies, take away Baffert and Garcia
would be spreading mayo on wheat.

Gomez may be a better rider at this stage of their careers, I will not argue that point. But in terms of the only thing that matters, results. Garcia has better results on Lookin at Lucky and has ridden him better than Gomez has, I think you would agree with this. If being a caddie was a forgone conclusion, Gomez would be riding Lookin At Lucky and for Baffert right now.

[cakes44]

Garcia has yet to ride him on synthetic. Those trips he gave him would be 0 for 2 on the stuff Gomez had to ride him on. And I don't care about the KD because Jesus would have lost from the 1-hole there, assuming he could ride horses like he rationed bread.

[the_fat_man]

To get a sense of how badly Gomez is riding presently (and, IMO, since at least last year), consider the analogy of the defensive player (linebacker or defensive back), that, while pursuing the ball carrier, is constantly adjusting his equipment. You know, his shoulder pads, his jock, pulling up his socks, etc.

Then you get a sense of how frustrating it is to watch Gomez twirl the reigns repeatedly, rather than just TAKING A HOLD, and riding to the wire.

Garcia is certainly not at the top of my jock's list, and he certainly can't finish as well as Gomez; but at least he's able to get into a finishing position -- these days, Gomez can't even do that.

Gomez, at this point, is dangerously close to becoming Edgar Prado of a few years ago; you know, when Edgar started that accelerated DECLINE, that continues.

[LARHAGE]

Garcia has yet to ride him on synthetic. Those trips he gave him would be 0 for 2 on the stuff Gomez had to ride him on. And I don't care about the KD because Jesus would have lost from the 1-hole there, assuming he could ride horses like he rationed bread.



Exactly, Garcia has done nothing for this horse that anyone else wouldn't, and a lot wouldn't have been as wide and premature. Garcia is an average jock, nothing more, nothing less.

[Travis Stone]

I think it's rare where a jockey really moves a horse up... certain horses sure, but for the most part, no shot. I don't think it's rare, however, for jockeys to move horses down. Lookin at Lucky was lengths the best on Sunday... he wins with a lot of different riders on him, but take nothing away from Garcia, because one thing he didn't do was screw-up.

[CSC]

Garcia has yet to ride him on synthetic. Those trips he gave him would be 0 for 2 on the stuff Gomez had to ride him on. And I don't care about the KD because Jesus would have lost from the 1-hole there, assuming he could ride horses like he rationed bread.

Why are you assuming he would ride a horse the same way on dirt as he would on synth? He's not Robbie Albarado, someone should have told him BC 2008 was on pro ride and not on dirt or atleast he should have noticed it was.

[the_fat_man]

Why are you assuming he would ride a horse the same way on dirt as he would on synth? He's not Robbie Albarado, someone should have told him BC 2008 was on pro ride and not on dirt or atleast he should have noticed it was.

Must've been the same person who also forgot to tell ASSman and Jackson.:rolleyes:

But, Albarado is clearly CHALLENGED. Would telling him have helped?

[the_fat_man]

I think it's rare where a jockey really moves a horse up...

Back when Cordero, Pincay, Antley, etc, were riding, I had many things to say during one of their races. 'PUT HIM IN A ****IN' DRIVE', was never one of them. Funny how this pretty much is the only thing I have to say while watching races these days. And, it doesn't really matter whether they're at major or minor venues, as the top jocks (with very, very few exceptions) don't finish any better than the poor ones. It is what it is.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Why are you assuming he would ride a horse the same way on dirt as he would on synth?

Because he does. Go watch the brilliant ride he put on St. Trinians again. After breaking into the gate and stumbling - he takes her widest on both turns despite starting from post 2.

[CSC]

Because he does. Go watch the brilliant ride he put on St. Trinians again. After breaking into the gate and stumbling - he takes her widest on both turns despite starting from post 2.

I'm sure that cost her the race. :rolleyes: Zenyatta goes into the 3 path around the turn, one less than St. Trinians, however I guess following a 60-1 Will O Way is preferable.

Edit I take that back Zenyatta took the exact path ST did around the 1st turn, if anyone wants to be anal about it, she steps in ST's hooveprints around the 1st turn. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-fJpTGaPH8

Watch for yourselves, no disputing the tape.

[CSC]

Must've been the same person who also forgot to tell ASSman and Jackson.:rolleyes:

But, Albarado is clearly CHALLENGED. Would telling him have helped?

It was a good ride if the race was on dirt.

[CSC]

Because he does. Go watch the brilliant ride he put on St. Trinians again. After breaking into the gate and stumbling - he takes her widest on both turns despite starting from post 2.

On my drive home, I really tried to understand what was so bad about Garcia's ride. Okay I'll play along, if he goes to the rail saves abit of ground around the 1st turn, she then follows Will O Way, Zardana around the track, waits for a split that may or may not occur or worst gets stopped following inferior horses...How is she going to outrun Zenyatta the last 1/8th of a mile if that magical split happens if she loses her tactical advantage? I know you referenced Awesome Gem's trip but that was against Rail Trip, not a horse that has yet to be beaten in the final 1/4 mile run of a race. Help me understand this instance of yours that Garcia's ride was dirt awful that it may have cost St. Trinians the race.

[cakes44]

Why do I get the feeling you'd defend the ride on St. Trinians ahead of some others?

[CSC]

Why can't we have a rational discussion without what I think you are inferring? The ride did not cost ST the race, that is what I, maybe we are discussing. Whether it did or not.

[Indian Charlie]

Zenyatta.

[Clip-Clop]

Haskell? Ocenaport?? Matchmaker???

It is always Zenyatta.

[CSC]

Rachel Alexander.

I didn't use her name, she still hasn't officially run in a grade 1 in 2010.

[westcoastinvader]

And despite that he still outrides Garcia. Gomez is riding a lot of longshots at the elite meet in the world, Garcia is competing in short fields on Baffert caddies, take away Baffert and Garcia
would be spreading mayo on wheat.


I'm not going to diss Gomez.

A couple years back one of my handicapping angles was that he would find a seam to get his horse through on the turn or in the stretch.

It was successful, at least as I recall with a nod to the adult beverages I might have consumed while placing the bets.

Plus, Gomez was hurt really bad in late 2008. Any jockey gets a bit of a performance pass from me at least, when that happens in this sport.

There are "five tool" baseball players.

Martin Garcia's skills are innate. No argument at all that he still has much to learn.

For those saying any jockey could have gotten Lucky home first in the Preakness and Haskell, I'll offer I remember VERY FEW Lookin at Lucky fans here in late 2009 and early 2010.

Sometimes we're all full of crap.

[ateamstupid]

what I gathered was it would have been 42% of his total wins on the year, which seems to be correct. 44/105

I understand. But Rupert thought Garcia was winning with 42% of his mounts for Baffert. It's been cleared up.

[Dahoss]

Sometimes we're all full of crap.

You really said a mouthful there.

[Coach Pants]

I remember back in 2007 when Gomez was tearing ass. I used to tip his valet $40 just to find out what Gomez had for breakfast that morning. If he had Eggs Benedict it would be a multiple win day. If he had cinnamon toast crunch it would usually be 1 win...depending on if there was a sliced banana in the bowl. If there was a slice banana in the bowl then there would be no wins.

I made a lot of money that year. Then he got hurt and I was like d'awww shucks.

[MaTH716]

I remember back in 2007 when Gomez was tearing ass. I used to tip his valet $40 just to find out what Gomez had for breakfast that morning. If he had Eggs Benedict it would be a multiple win day. If he had cinnamon toast crunch it would usually be 1 win...depending on if there was a sliced banana in the bowl. If there was a slice banana in the bowl then there would be no wins.

I made a lot of money that year. Then he got hurt and I was like d'awww shucks.

Gomez or the valet? :rolleyes:

[Coach Pants]

Gomez or the valet? :rolleyes:
The valet. The new one keeps rambling about seams and whatnot. He's a little off.

[Dahoss]

The valet. The new one keeps rambling about seams and whatnot. He's a little off.

Does the valet have a trophy wife also?

[CSC]

To get a sense of how badly Gomez is riding presently (and, IMO, since at least last year), consider the analogy of the defensive player (linebacker or defensive back), that, while pursuing the ball carrier, is constantly adjusting his equipment. You know, his shoulder pads, his jock, pulling up his socks, etc.

Then you get a sense of how frustrating it is to watch Gomez twirl the reigns repeatedly, rather than just TAKING A HOLD, and riding to the wire.

Garcia is certainly not at the top of my jock's list, and he certainly can't finish as well as Gomez; but at least he's able to get into a finishing position -- these days, Gomez can't even do that.

Gomez, at this point, is dangerously close to becoming Edgar Prado of a few years ago; you know, when Edgar started that accelerated DECLINE, that continues.

Accelerated decline...made me think, Jorge Chavez used to be one of my favorite Jockies, especially when he used to ride for Bond. I remember some nice scores on him, he rode one of my few Derby winners Monarchos, yeah my derby picks sux, but Jorge is a case of a Jock that went south very quickly.

[NTamm1215]

Accelerated decline...made me think, Jorge Chavez used to be one of my favorite Jockies, especially when he used to ride for Bond. I remember some nice scores on him, he rode one of my few Derby winners Monarchos, yeah my derby picks sux, but Jorge is a case of a Jock that went south very quickly.

He had a huge injury in FL in 2003 and that certainly set him back horribly.

NT

[CSC]

He had a huge injury in FL in 2003 and that certainly set him back horribly.

NT

Yeah never was the same after that, same with Nakatani when he was injuried at Delmar. I can't think of 2 jockies whose quality rides dropped as much as Jorge and Nak.