Weekend Beyers

[Kasept]

PRM-PrM Cornhusker H (G2): Shadowbdancing 94 (T. Gore/E. Razo)
PRM-Iowa Derby (G3): Concord Point 107 (B. Baffert/M. Garcia)
PRM-Iowa Oaks (G3): Seeking the Title 93 (D. Stewart/C. Borel)
PRM-Iowa Sprint H: Majesticperfection 117 (S. Asmussen/S. Bridgmohan)
PRM-Saylorville S: Secret Gypsy 101 (R. Werner/J. Theriot)
PRM-Iowa Distaff S: Wynning Ride 92 (B. Baffert/M. Garcia)

BEL-Mother Goose S (G1): Devil May Care 97 (T. Pletcher/J. Velazquez)

MTH-Boiling Springs S (G3): Strike It Rich 89 (C. Clement G. Gomez)
MTH-Lighthouse S: Malibu Prayer 107 (T. Pletcher/G. Gomez)
MTH-Blue Sparkler S: Way With Words 89 (M. Eppler/E. Castro)
MTH Crank It Up S: Greeley's Rocket 87 (W. Calhoun/J. Rose)

WO-King Edward S (G2): Grand Adventure 104 (M. Frostad/P. Husbands)
WO-Victoria Park S: Exhi 100 (T. Pletcher/R. Albarado)
WO-My Dear S: Final Mesa 92 (W. Ward/E. Coa)

AP-Arlington Sprint H: Chamberlain Bridge 100 (W. Calhoun/J. Theriot)

CD-Debutante S (G3): Just Louise 68 (D. Romans/R. Albarado)
CD-Kelly's Landing S: Here Comes Ben 103 (C. Lopresti/A. Solis)

HOL-Beverly Hills H (G3): Turning Top 89 (S. Callaghan/B. Blanc)
HOL-Kerlan Memorial H: My Summer Slew 97 (C. Dollase/A. Quinonez)

IND-Snack S: Mr Consolidator (R. Patrick/O. Mojica)

PID-Leemat S: Zoeling 93 (D. Matthews/F. Geroux)
PID-Northern Fling S: Ariana D 85 (M. Scherer/H. Vega)

[Coach Pants]

Wow... The Debutante is laughable.

[hockey2315]

Capital Account ran a 104.

[hockey2315]

In semi-related news. . . I'm pretty sure Afleet Express' allowance beyer from last month has been downgraded all the way from the prelim fig that was 110+ to a 101. . . It stopped in the middle for a while (and was listed at that level - 104 or 105 maybe - when the PP's for his last race were out). I'm starting to agree with all the Beyer-bashers - not because I think the figs are bad, but because their application/calculation has become a complete joke.

[the_fat_man]

In semi-related news. . . I'm pretty sure Afleet Express' allowance beyer from last month has been downgraded all the way from the prelim fig that was 110+ to a 101. . . It stopped in the middle for a while (and was listed at that level - 104 or 105 maybe - when the PP's for his last race were out). I'm starting to agree with all the Beyer-bashers - not because I think the figs are bad, but because their application/calculation has become a complete joke.

Today we have Serling exposing Castellano, and the NYRA stewards for continually allowing him to HERD. Castellano wasn't allowed to do this at WO, Serling points out.:rolleyes: (They slapped him like the bitch he is.)

And now, we have a diehard devotee starting to rethink his paradigm.

What's next?

[blackthroatedwind]

Today we have Serling exposing Castellano, and the NYRA stewards for continually allowing him to HERD. Castellano wasn't allowed to do this at WO, Serling points out.:rolleyes: (They slapped him like the bitch he is.)

And now, we have a diehard devotee starting to rethink his paradigm.

What's next?

You posting sanely?

[the_fat_man]

You posting sanely?

I'm complementing you and you get paranoid again. You really need to get some help about that.

P.S. I also caught your comment on trips and traps about Shrewd One where you comment that it doesn't matter how fast they were going. So, SETUP does trump numeric pace, then, huh? But if that's the case, what happens to "no trips in slow races"?

[randallscott35]

Andy makes a point that needs to be made about jockeys getting hometown calls which screws up things in DQs consistently. On Belmont day Bravo should've come down in that turf sprint but Monmouth looked the other way. It's gross and it needs to stop...I realize they recently took him down in another race I believe. He needs days as he is careless. He doesn't deserve a Jersey discount.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm complementing you and you get paranoid again. You really need to get some help about that.

P.S. I also caught your comment on trips and traps about Shrewd One where you comment that it doesn't matter how fast they were going. So, SETUP does trump numeric pace, then, huh? But if that's the case, what happens to "no trips in slow races"?

I was joking.

However, after this post perhaps I should reconsider.

I'll have to review that T&T to find out what I was REALLY saying.

[blackthroatedwind]

Andy makes a point that needs to be made about jockeys getting hometown calls which screws up things in DQs consistently. On Belmont day Bravo should've come down in that turf sprint but Monmouth looked the other way. It's gross and it needs to stop...I realize they recently took him down in another race I believe. He needs days as he is careless. He doesn't deserve a Jersey discount.


They aren't hometown calls....at least in NY. They are different interpretations of rules.

I will never get why people always insinuate that stewards have some ulterior motives. You may disagree with them, they may be " wrong, " but that doesn't imply some sort of imbalance. They simply see things differently...right or wrong.

[blackthroatedwind]

I'm complementing you and you get paranoid again. You really need to get some help about that.

P.S. I also caught your comment on trips and traps about Shrewd One where you comment that it doesn't matter how fast they were going. So, SETUP does trump numeric pace, then, huh? But if that's the case, what happens to "no trips in slow races"?


OK, now I know what you were referring to.

What I was saying was that, basically, while the pace appears relatively slow ( I would guess it was actually on the fair to fast side ), I'm not overly concerned with that, as from a dynamics standpoint, it collapsed. Part of that may have been very much related to the contestants as well.

However, this was FAR from a " slow " race....so, sorry, I hate to end today's hot streak for you, but this was not a " no trips in slow races " situation. In fact, not even close.

[the_fat_man]

However, this was FAR from a " slow " race....so, sorry, I hate to end today's hot streak for you, but this was not a " no trips in slow races " situation. In fact, not even close.

You're a good enough handicapper/race watcher to understand that pace is one factor that can influence the way a race is run. Other ways are: a horse whose run would alter the dynamics of the race getting a trouble trip; a horse or horses making premature moves; whether or not the winner is 'escorted' to the wire; and, probably most importantly, the 'type' of race it is.

You obviously know all this because, quite often, in between giving us the full trouble line data, you also make some noteworthy comments about the dynamics of a given race and how that affects the evalution of a given horse.

In fact, you appear to be doing this quite often and I suspect that sooner (and not later) RACE TYPES will play a central role in your handicapping.

On a related noted, and to see how COMPETENT stewards operate, check out the replay of WO 6/23/10 R4. I had an exacta box 1-7 and it appeared to be good UNTIL the 4 came out and caused the 2 to cut off the 7. In NY they take the 4 down.

[blackthroatedwind]

Race shapes, going forwards and backwards, are a central part of my handicapping. Plus, it's fun to decipher and try to predict.

I'll try to watch the WO race, though they aren't on racereplays.com.

[Kasept]

PRM-PrM Cornhusker H (G2): Shadowbdancing 94 (T. Gore/E. Razo)
PRM-Iowa Derby (G3): Concord Point 107 (B. Baffert/M. Garcia)
PRM-Iowa Oaks (G3): Seeking the Title 93 (D. Stewart/C. Borel)

[RockHardTen1985]

PRM-PrM Cornhusker H (G2): Shadowbdancing 94 (T. Gore/E. Razo)
PRM-Iowa Derby (G3): Concord Point 107 (B. Baffert/M. Garcia)
PRM-Iowa Oaks (G3): Seeking the Title 93 (D. Stewart/C. Borel)

107 for Concord Point, besides Eskendereya is that the highest 3 yr old route beyer this year?

[Kasept]

Eskendereya AQU 03 Apr 1 1/8M 109
Concord Point PrM 26 Jun 1 1/16M 107
Eskendereya GP 20 Feb 1 1/8M 106
All Due Respect (f) HOL 06 Jun 1 1/16M 104
Blind Luck (f) OP 02 Apr 1 1/16M 104
Super Saver CD 01 May 1 1/4M 104
Tidal Pool (f) OP 18 Feb 1M 103
Lookin At Lucky PIM 15 May 1 3/16M 102
Endorsement SUN 28 Mar 1 1/8M 101
First Dude PIM 15 May 1 3/16M 101
Hurricane Ike CD 24 Apr 1M 101
Jackson Bend PIM 15 May 1 3/16M 101
Tiz the One GP 14 Mar 1M 101
Amen Hallelujah (f) GP 27 Feb 1M 100
Devil May Care (f) GP 20 Mar 1 1/8M 100

[RockHardTen1985]

Eskendereya AQU 03 Apr 1 1/8M 109
Concord Point PrM 26 Jun 1 1/16M 107
Eskendereya GP 20 Feb 1 1/8M 106
All Due Respect (f) HOL 06 Jun 1 1/16M 104
Blind Luck (f) OP 02 Apr 1 1/16M 104
Super Saver CD 01 May 1 1/4M 104
Tidal Pool (f) OP 18 Feb 1M 103
Lookin At Lucky PIM 15 May 1 3/16M 102
Endorsement SUN 28 Mar 1 1/8M 101
First Dude PIM 15 May 1 3/16M 101
Hurricane Ike CD 24 Apr 1M 101
Jackson Bend PIM 15 May 1 3/16M 101
Tiz the One GP 14 Mar 1M 101
Amen Hallelujah (f) GP 27 Feb 1M 100
Devil May Care (f) GP 20 Mar 1 1/8M 100


Thanks Steve.
What did you think of his effort? I burnt some money on him earlier in the year, but he has always been on my radar, even if only because its a Baffert.
Do you think he is the real deal? Did he beat much? Any plans on where to next, Saratoga likely?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Shadowbdancing won a 300K Grade 2 for older males with a 94.

Yeah - that was some field.

[Kasept]

Thanks Steve.
What did you think of his effort? I burnt some money on him earlier in the year, but he has always been on my radar, even if only because its a Baffert.
Do you think he is the real deal? Did he beat much? Any plans on where to next, Saratoga likely?
Thought it was OK... Have to watch it again.

Baffert on Concord Point's next steps tomorrow morning at 10:30a on ATR.

[alysheba4]

does it seem like a low number for devil:confused:

[hockey2315]

not at all

[The Indomitable DrugS]

does it seem like a low number for devil:confused:

It's a respectable figure for a Gr 1 stakes winning 3yo filly. Blind Luck and Evening Jewel ran 94's in the KY Oaks.

I also think the Mother Goose was a race DMC can improve on going forward.

[Kasept]

WO-King Edward S (G2): Grand Adventure 104 (M. Frostad/P. Husbands)
WO-Victoria Park S: Exhi 100 (T. Pletcher/R. Albarado)

MTH-Blue Sparkler S: Way With Words 89 (M. Eppler/E. Castro)
MTH Crank It Up S: Greeley's Rocket 87 (W. Calhoun/J. Rose)

HOL-Kerlan Memorial H: My Summer Slew 97 (C. Dollase/A. Quinonez)

[Left Bank]

Race shapes, going forwards and backwards, are a central part of my handicapping. Plus, it's fun to decipher and try to predict.

I'll try to watch the WO race, though they aren't on racereplays.com.

http://www.youtube.com/user/WEGReplays
Woodbine replay channel

[blackthroatedwind]

Thanks.

Good channel too. Thanks for alerting me to it.

[blackthroatedwind]

On a related noted, and to see how COMPETENT stewards operate, check out the replay of WO 6/23/10 R4. I had an exacta box 1-7 and it appeared to be good UNTIL the 4 came out and caused the 2 to cut off the 7. In NY they take the 4 down.

But they did, and rightfully so, take the 4 down. You don't think they would have in NY? I think they would have....and you know I'm not being a " homer " here.

[the_fat_man]

I also think the Mother Goose was a race DMC can improve on going forward.

Does this mean that the Lawyer Ron elixir is back?:rolleyes:

Seriously, she won impressively but how in the world does she get a better trip?

Perfect trip in the Bonnie Miss. Perfect trip Saturday. Does she have an 'against the grain' effort in her?

[cmorioles]

Shadowbdancing won a 300K Grade 2 for older males with a 94.

Yeah - that was some field.

I have a hard time believing that is the best those horses could do. The times seem consistent with the Derby and the Oaks, but this one just seems off. I may have to do some hand timing, especially considering this isn't a distance that has been run since the same race the year prior.

[blackthroatedwind]

Does this mean that the Lawyer Ron elixir is back?:rolleyes:

Seriously, she won impressively but how in the world does she get a better trip?

Perfect trip in the Bonnie Miss. Perfect trip Saturday. Does she have an 'against the grain' effort in her?

Yes, the Frizette. She made a premature move in a collapsing pace and still won.

[RockHardTen1985]

Does this mean that the Lawyer Ron elixir is back?:rolleyes:

Seriously, she won impressively but how in the world does she get a better trip?

Perfect trip in the Bonnie Miss. Perfect trip Saturday. Does she have an 'against the grain' effort in her?

Wont a horse with her style pull a perfect trip more times then not? Especially with a guy like JV who does not know where the rail is, the clear, close range stalking trip is what she is likely to pull.

[the_fat_man]

Yes, the Frizette. She made a premature move in a collapsing pace and still won.

She was inside the 2nd horse and got the jump on her as that one got stuck behind horses and took a while to change leads in the lane. I don't think that move was premature and she certainly got a better trip than the runner up. The same way she got a better trip than Biofuel.

When she tried to make a genuine against the grain run in the Silverbulletday, she got gutted.

[blackthroatedwind]

She was inside the 2nd horse and got the jump on her as that one got stuck behind horses and took a while to change leads in the lane. I don't think that move was premature and she certainly got a better trip than the runner up. The same way she got a better trip than Biofuel.

When she tried to make a genuine against the grain run in the Silverbulletday, she got gutted.

I don't agree.

The Silverbulletday is clearly a throwout.

[the_fat_man]

Wont a horse with her style pull a perfect trip more times then not? Especially with a guy like JV who does not know where the rail is, the clear, close range stalking trip is what she is likely to pull.

That's very true. But there's a difference between having the speed/ability to sit behind the pacesetter and then be able to hold off the closers and what happened in the Mother Goose or the Bonnie Miss.

Consider for a moment what happens if Biofuel doesn't break bad and then isn't asked on the turn.

[RockHardTen1985]

I don't agree.

The Silverbulletday is clearly a throwout.

She totally freaked at the gate, gave them a hard time loading and from watching the replay she never at any point settled.

[RockHardTen1985]

That's very true. But there's a difference between having the speed/ability to sit behind the pacesetter and then be able to hold off the closers and what happened in the Mother Goose or the Bonnie Miss.

Consider for a moment what happens if Biofuel doesn't break bad and then isn't asked on the turn.

Im trying to understand but not seeing it. I think DMC is much better then Biofuel, and actually wants to go longer so I dont see Biofuel making up the ground on her at Saratoga "CCOA, Alabama"

[the_fat_man]

She totally freaked at the gate, gave them a hard time loading and from watching the replay she never at any point settled.

In other words, she tried to make an early run against a loose horse and threw up her lunch.

But she certainly had no trouble sitting behind 3 horses that were going at it in the Bonnie Miss and strutting her stuff late.

[cmorioles]

In other words, she tried to make an early run against a loose horse and threw up her lunch.

But she certainly had no trouble sitting behind 3 horses that were going at it in the Bonnie Miss and strutting her stuff late.

You completely discount the gate incident? That doesn't make much sense, and also the fact the race was first of a couple month layoff and clearly not a goal of the connections make it a toss.

[the_fat_man]

You completely discount the gate incident? That doesn't make much sense, and also the fact the race was first of a couple month layoff and clearly not a goal of the connections make it a toss.

All I'm saying is that the horse can win with good trips and has yet to win with a bad trip. If she's so good, where's her 'adversity' race. Where's her Rachel Alexandra Preakness or Woodward race? Hell, where's her race where she got a worse trip than the runner up?

I didn't see the SBD, so I have no idea what happened at the gate. I do know, however, that the start (and what happened subsequently) pretty much eliminated Biofuel in the MG.

[cmorioles]

All I'm saying is that the horse can win with good trips and has yet to win with a bad trip. If she's so good, where's her 'adversity' race. Where's her Rachel Alexandra Preakness or Woodward race? Hell, where's her race where she got a worse trip than the runner up?

I didn't see the SBD, so I have no idea what happened at the gate. I do know, however, that the start (and what happened subsequently) pretty much eliminated Biofuel in the MG.

I don't think she is all that great, but what 3yo really is?

The trouble before the race was pretty substantial.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Yes, the Frizette. She made a premature move in a collapsing pace and still won.

Wow! I just got sort of like a by proxy reply from BindTortureWound.

I feel so acknowledged.

[Left Bank]

Thanks.

Good channel too. Thanks for alerting me to it.

Could you convince NYRA to make a channel like this???

[blackthroatedwind]

We give free access to our replays through our website and have for years.

We use our Youtube page for plenty of other stuff.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I have a hard time believing that is the best those horses could do. The times seem consistent with the Derby and the Oaks, but this one just seems off. I may have to do some hand timing, especially considering this isn't a distance that has been run since the same race the year prior.

CJ --- those horses royally suck.

The winner went 6 Beyer points slower than American Lion did in the Ill Derby - and AL had to run straight into a heavy head wind for the extra 1/16th. His other win this year was at Fonner Park.

Look at the horse who was 3rd in the race. Horrid.

I think the clear cut favorite in the betting was beaten like 26 lengths at Lone Star in a stake last time out.

The young chick who spams facebook with a combo of horse pics and quotes from things she says to her dog - she LOVED Brass Hat in the race... and he was like the 2nd choice even though he hasn't run on dirt in forever.

Slew's Tizzy isn't total garbage - but he was off like a 2 year layoff.

I don't know man ... I think anyone of the 3 different 3yo's from the 3yo male stakes would have had a good look in there.

[cmorioles]

CJ --- those horses royally suck.



I agree, and using only speed figures I can see how a 94 would look reasonable. But, the pace was average at best and it is highly unlikely in my opinion the winner would only run a 94 with those moderate fractions.

It is a tough call, and the pathetic last race on the card doesn't make it any easier.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I hear ya ... I'm not taking as techincal a view on it as you.

Do you think maybe the other route races that day should be a few points faster? I guess the two other stakes were won by lightly raced improving 3yo's

[cmorioles]

I hear ya ... I'm not taking as techincal a view on it as you.

Do you think maybe the other route races that day should be a few points faster? I guess the two other stakes were won by lightly raced improving 3yo's

It is possible. The PrM races have a history of coming back weird for years now.