5/29-30 (BEL): Vagrancy (G2); NYB Stakes; Met (G1), Sands Pt. (G2)

[Kasept]

9th (5:17) Vagrancy H. (G2)

6 1/2 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Rightly So Velasquez C 114 L
2 Hour Glass Cohen D 117 L
3 Tar Heel Mom Garcia Alan 119 L
4 Malibu Prayer Velazquez J R 117 L
5 Hold That Prospect Chavez J F 115 L
6 Lady Alexander Castellano J J 115 L
7 Saarlight Coa E M 114 L

[Kasept]

8th (4:44) Kingston S.

1 1/16 Miles (Turf) | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Minnie Punt Lezcano J 116 L
2 Gimme Credit Castellano J J 118 L
3 Extra Zip Chavez J F 118 L
4 Cash'n in Dixie Coa E M 116 L
5 Banrock Desormeaux K J 123 L
6 Uncle T Seven Maragh R 116 L
7 Writingonthewall Prado E S 116 L
8 Star of New York Santiago V 116 L
MTO Dr. D. F. C. 116 L



9th (5:17) Mount Vernon S.

1 1/16 Miles (Inner turf) | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $100,000

1 Paraiba Prado E S 115 L
2 You Go West Girl Lezcano J 117 L
3 Tulipmania Desormeaux K J 115 L
4 Our Golden Dream Castellano J J 115 Blk-Off L
5 Stormy Relations Dominguez R A 115 L
6 Chestoria Cohen D 117 L
7 Akilina Maragh R 119 L
MTO Big Brownie Hill C 115 L

[Alan07]

9th (5:15) Sands Point S. (G2)

1 1/8 Miles (Inner Turf) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Ultimate Class Castellano J J 117 L
2 More Is Better Velasquez C 117 L
3 Hit It Rich Desormeaux K J 117 L
4 Check the Label Dominguez R A 121 L
5 Khancord Kid Maragh R 120 L
6 Strike It Rich Hill C 117 L
7 Crescenda Coa E M 117 L
8 Negligee Velazquez J R 117 Blk-On L



10th (5:50) Metropolitan H. (G1)

1 Mile | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $500,000

1 Convocation Desormeaux K J 114 L
2 Tizway Maragh R 115 L
3 Musket Man Dominguez R A 117 L
4 Warrior's Reward Borel C H 118 L
5 Kensei Prado E S 116 L
6 You and I Forever Castellano J J 116 L
7 Quality Road Velazquez J R 124 L
8 Le Grand Cru Velasquez C 115 L

[clyde]

Where are the stinking pp's for the Met Mile,AL??

[NTamm1215]

Can we get Gales on here to tell us about how Musket Man is going to run huge? Or is he just going to get beat by Warrior's Reward for the 3rd time and Quality Road too?

NT

[Indian Charlie]

Can we get Gales on here to tell us about how Musket Man is going to run huge? Or is he just going to get beat by Warrior's Reward for the 3rd time and Quality Road too?

NT

I kinda want a cameo by xx1985 to give us all this exacta.

[Kasept]

A. Jerkens this morning. Le Grand Cru blowout gets the best of 39 bullet..

Le Grand Cru :47.11 B 1/39 (http://www.drf.com/static/workouts/29/wBEL29.html)

[Left Bank]

Damn,I thought Musket Man was gonna take him at the end there.What a race!

[fpsoxfan]

Impressive! Way to go Quality Road.

[Travis Stone]

This should be interesting... Quality Road is hands-down the leader for Horse of the Year at this point. Now there's plenty of time to go, and yes, he's not a 10f horse, but lots of funky scenarios could manifest themselves between now and the end to help elevate the interest level with the whole Rachel/Zenyatta thing losing steam.

[DaTruth]

This should be interesting... Quality Road is hands-down the leader for Horse of the Year at this point. Now there's plenty of time to go, and yes, he's not a 10f horse, but lots of funky scenarios could manifest themselves between now and the end to help elevate the interest level with the whole Rachel/Zenyatta thing losing steam.

Quality Road will be the leader for Horse of the Year when he crosses the Rockies again.

[letswastemoney]

The Mosses are wasting a lot of time running Zenyatta in the Vanity if they want HOTY.

If their goal is to just relax and hold the streak record though, kudos to the Mosses.

[Smooth Operator]

Didn't catch the Met

How did QR's effort stack up against the gold standard performance (GZ) for the race?



Never mind … think we already know the answer…

[booner]

Didn't catch the Met

How did QR's effort stack up against the gold standard performance (GZ) for the race?



Never mind … think we already know the answer…

Hard to match Ghostzapper's performance. One of my favorite races.

[ateamstupid]

Didn't catch the Met

How did QR's effort stack up against the gold standard performance (GZ) for the race?



Never mind … think we already know the answer…

You're right, Ghostzapper is totally going to beat out Quality Road for HOY now.

I'm as big of a GZ fan as anyone, but since you didn't see the race, QR was absolutely terrific today. He battled through a contentious pace, completely broke the heart of Warrior's Reward around the turn and still had more than enough to hold off the perfect-trip Musket Man in 1:33.11. Face it, your girl's actually going to have to come run in some real races if Shirreffs wants HOY over this monster.

With all of that said, I don't think QR wants to run a step further than nine furlongs, so if he makes it to the BCC as the favorite, I'll be betting against him.

[paulo537]

Can we get Gales on here to tell us about how Musket Man is going to run huge? Or is he just going to get beat by Warrior's Reward for the 3rd time and Quality Road too?

NT

How do you think Musket Man ran?

[Travis Stone]

I've been trying to figure out what Warrior's Reward was doing so close to the pace, and moving with 3/8's to go, when we've seen how he excels in his most recent few starts.

[philcski]

Didn't catch the Met

How did QR's effort stack up against the gold standard performance (GZ) for the race?



Never mind … think we already know the answer…

It was damn close.

And I'm a huge Ghostzapper guy.

For what it's worth- it should be a 121 Beyer.

[Smooth Operator]

The usual post-race tard-fest over at TC


So MM gets a 118 or so, phil?

[philcski]

The usual post-race tard-fest over at TC


So MM gets a 118 or so, phil?

Correct... although I wouldn't be surprised if they revise the number down because it was a closer margin, even though they shouldn't.

[NTamm1215]

Correct... although I wouldn't be surprised if they revise the number down because it was a closer margin, even though they shouldn't.

They absolutely shouldn't. Musket Man is a nice horse and he ran a huge race.

NT

[NTamm1215]

How do you think Musket Man ran?

I think he ran a phenomenal race, he got a beautiful ride and ran clearly the best race of his career.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

I've been trying to figure out what Warrior's Reward was doing so close to the pace, and moving with 3/8's to go, when we've seen how he excels in his most recent few starts.

Borel must have an evil twin that rides outside of CD. That was a silly ride to be kind.

[blackthroatedwind]

It looks like the raw number is 114 which makes sense given a 98 for Miner's Reserve and 104 for Driven by Success.

[Betsy]

It looks like the raw number is 114 which makes sense given a 98 for Miner's Reserve and 104 for Driven by Success.

Does the raw figure mean that it's just a preliminary figure and will be adjusted? I would have figured a BSF of at least 100 based on the fact that the races prior to Miner's Reserve seemed slow.

In any case, it was nice to see him run back to his maiden win. I never liked him running in the Florida Derby, but I expected him to do better than he did; I suppose he just hated the mud at CD.

[Port Conway Lane]

Did someone mention Dunkirk ?

[philcski]

It looks like the raw number is 114 which makes sense given a 98 for Miner's Reserve and 104 for Driven by Success.

I get similar numbers for those two (99 & 104)... which would give QR a 120 or 121 because 1:33.11 should be 16 or 17 points faster than 1:21.75. It should be a -14 point variant for the day so the first race gets a 69 and the 3rd a 56.

[blackthroatedwind]

I get similar numbers for those two (99 & 104)... which would give QR a 120 or 121 because 1:33.11 should be 16 or 17 points faster than 1:21.75. It should be a -14 point variant for the day so the first race gets a 69 and the 3rd a 56.

Sorry, but I don't see how a 1:33 corresponds to a 1:20 1/5 which is basically what you are saying.

[philcski]

Sorry, but I don't see how a 1:33 corresponds to a 1:20 1/5 which is basically what you are saying.

Correct, that is what I'm saying... a 1:34 corresponds to a 1:21.25, and a 1:35 corresponds to a 1:22 1/5- so I don't think I'm wrong by much.

[blackthroatedwind]

That doesn't work for me....especially given that Quality Road went about 1:20 4/5.

[blackthroatedwind]

By the way, Phil, not to seem disagreeable, but you do realize the numbers posted at 10pm tonight are highly unlikely to have been massaged in any way?

[philcski]

That doesn't work for me....especially given that Quality Road went about 1:20 4/5.

I agree with you that he went about 1:20 4/5. But that being said... the time chart is what it is, and a 1:33.11 is a 134 raw figure, and they clearly used a 14 point variant on the rest of the card.

I think you have a valid point that the time chart parallel might be incorrect at that level, however, and that would explain the difference.

By the way, Phil, not to seem disagreeable, but you do realize the numbers posted at 10pm tonight are highly unlikely to have been massaged in any way?

Well, how long do you think it takes the figure maker to determine the final level? First cut shouldn't take more than a half hour for Beyers. It isn't Thorograph where every runners' path has to be scrutinized, etc.

[blackthroatedwind]

I've done enough thinking for one day....I will stick with what I know.

It's not really a timing thing, per se, right now.

[VOL JACK]

Borel must have an evil twin that rides outside of CD. That was a silly ride to be kind.

:tro:

[philcski]

All in all, I don't think anyone needs a number to know what an incredible performance that was anyways.

Tizway also ran monster.

[blackthroatedwind]

Agreed.

Tizway is a terrific horse. I was particularly happy he ran so well.

[richard]

"And Musket Man is firing at Quality Road !" Great stretch call by Durkin.

[Sightseek]

"And Musket Man is firing at Quality Road !" Great stretch call by Durkin.

Thought it was great too.

What a horse!

[OldDog]

Great stretch run by Musket Man, tremendous overall race by Quality Road, and a wonderful call by Tom Durkin. I had to pull to the side of the road so I wouldn't crash.

[blackthroatedwind]

One amusing sidenote to the Met considering a certain posters inane ramblings on this board was the contrast in rides. While the great Calvin Borel ( great because he was won three KY Derbys ) was butchering Warrior's Reward, the overrated Ramon Dominguez was giving as fine a ride as possible on Musket Man. One minimized his mount's chances and the other maximized his.

[Coach Pants]

Ramon Dominguez is the greatest. He's above criticism because he puts family first and rides the inner meet instead of moving to Florida. No other jockeys have families. It's good he put his family first.

[tiggerv]

The Borel ride was awful. He wasn't going to win anyway, but I hate burning money on a horse that isn't given a fair chance because of a retarded ride. While I'm at it, screw Castellano too for his great ride in the 8th to head bob me out of all the multi-race bets.

[VOL JACK]

The Borel ride was awful. He wasn't going to win anyway, but I hate burning money on a horse that isn't given a fair chance because of a retarded ride. While I'm at it, screw Castellano too for his great ride in the 8th to head bob me out of all the multi-race bets.

I don't miss many live photo calls but, I blew that one.
I thought for certain the 6 won and was hoping the 2 (the winner) got the bob for place.:zz:

[ateamstupid]

I don't miss many live photo calls but, I blew that one.
I thought for certain the 6 won and was hoping the 2 (the winner) got the bob for place.:zz:

Me too. I bet the 6 to win fairly heavy and skipped away from the monitor counting my money. When I saw the 2 placed up top I could've thrown a baby off a skyscraper.

[Cannon Shell]

Me too. I bet the 6 to win fairly heavy and skipped away from the monitor counting my money. When I saw the 2 placed up top I could've thrown a baby off a skyscraper.

we need to talk

[ateamstupid]

we need to talk

Don't be silly honey.

[philcski]

From Crist's blog...

--Saving the best for last: Quality Road. His Met Mile victory, where he turned back three challenges en route to a 1:33.11 mile off a 114-day layoff, stamped him as the best male racehorse in this country since Curlin retired. Next stop: possibly the Suburban July 3, or straight to the Whitney Aug. 7, then possibly the Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic.

His Met clocking equalled Langfuhr's from 1997 as the second fastest ever behind Honour and Glory's 1:32.81 in 1996. It's a little tougher to be as precise about a speed figure: The Belmont track was not particularly quick earlier in the day, and then there were four straight grass races before the Met, by which time the track seemed much quicker. If you gave the race the same variant as the earlier ones on the card, the Met would get a Beyer Speed Figure of 123, which would leave runners-up Musket Man, Tizway and Convocation with implausibly high career tops. Instead, the race has been given a preliminary BSF of 114.

[Gaining Ground]

From Crist's blog...

--Saving the best for last: Quality Road. His Met Mile victory, where he turned back three challenges en route to a 1:33.11 mile off a 114-day layoff, stamped him as the best male racehorse in this country since Curlin retired. Next stop: possibly the Suburban July 3, or straight to the Whitney Aug. 7, then possibly the Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup and Breeders' Cup Classic.

His Met clocking equalled Langfuhr's from 1997 as the second fastest ever behind Honour and Glory's 1:32.81 in 1996. It's a little tougher to be as precise about a speed figure: The Belmont track was not particularly quick earlier in the day, and then there were four straight grass races before the Met, by which time the track seemed much quicker. If you gave the race the same variant as the earlier ones on the card, the Met would get a Beyer Speed Figure of 123, which would leave runners-up Musket Man, Tizway and Convocation with implausibly high career tops. Instead, the race has been given a preliminary BSF of 114.

isn't the rest of that sentence pretty important as well?

[westcoastinvader]

Impressive! Way to go Quality Road.


Nice race by Quality Road. I limited my wagers and just had the 3 and 8 in tri boxes hoping for a score in case Quality Road faltered.

I thought "no way" at the time I could make much money playing Quality Road, though in retrospect the $6.10 to $1 exacta payout with Musket Man makes me say "woulda coulda shoulda."


Pretty race. Velazquez positioned QR to where he never had to look at another horse's tail during the race, and had his choice of track position the entire route.

Grip it and rip it.

[philcski]

isn't the rest of that sentence pretty important as well?

Yes, because it explains the rationale of lowering the figure. However, that wasn't the discussion point- it was what the number would have been if they didn't adjust it. If you read through the posts you'll see that I said they would take it down because of the margins.

[tiggerv]

Me too. I bet the 6 to win fairly heavy and skipped away from the monitor counting my money. When I saw the 2 placed up top I could've thrown a baby off a skyscraper.

I didn't realize how much I had invested on the 6 until she lost.

As far as the Met goes, I don't think anybody needs an accurate BSF to know that QR is a monster, Musket Man and Tizway ran huge, and Borel should stick to Churchill.

[pointman]

I don't miss many live photo calls but, I blew that one.
I thought for certain the 6 won and was hoping the 2 (the winner) got the bob for place.:zz:

I had money on the 6 too, and I honestly believe that the only point of that bob that the 2 was ahead was at the wire, a milisecond before and after it looked like the 6 was ahead to me.

[cmorioles]

Yes, because it explains the rationale of lowering the figure. However, that wasn't the discussion point- it was what the number would have been if they didn't adjust it. If you read through the posts you'll see that I said they would take it down because of the margins.

While in the end you guessed correctly, it was for the wrong reason. Beyer doesn't use the standard one turn mile chart for races at Belmont. He has not for the whole meet. I'm pretty sure he didn't last year either but I don't remember 100%, so don't quote me on that. He adds about 8 points to the standard chart.

So, if using the regular one turn speed chart, the difference between Quality Road and Driven by Success should be about 12 points, not 16 or 17. But with the different chart in use for Belmont, the figure is actually about 20 points higher. Do you honestly believe the race figure should be 124? I know that I don't. Given that the Met was run in isolation from other dirt races, I think using the horses in the Met is much more accurate than using the other races on the card when you have to decide between the two.

To further befuddle people, the first race was split from the others as well, but I think this is a bad mistake by Hopkins/Beyer. The pace was very fast and the winner still went wire to wire. They gave the race a 77...poor work on that one in my opinion. It is probably a good approximation of the winner, but it makes the ones behind him look better than they actually ran by 10 or 11 points.

[philcski]

While in the end you guessed correctly, it was for the wrong reason. Beyer doesn't use the standard one turn mile chart for races at Belmont. He has not for the whole meet. I'm pretty sure he didn't last year either but I don't remember 100%, so don't quote me on that. He adds about 8 points to the standard chart.

So, if using the regular one turn speed chart, the difference between Quality Road and Driven by Success should be about 12 points, not 16 or 17. But with the different chart in use for Belmont, the figure is actually about 20 points higher. Do you honestly believe the race figure should be 124? I know that I don't. Given that the Met was run in isolation from other dirt races, I think using the horses in the Met is much more accurate than using the other races on the card when you have to decide between the two.

To further befuddle people, the first race was split from the others as well, but I think this is a bad mistake by Hopkins/Beyer. The pace was very fast and the winner still went wire to wire. They gave the race a 77...poor work on that one in my opinion. It is probably a good approximation of the winner, but it makes the ones behind him look better than they actually ran by 10 or 11 points.

Thanks CJ for the excellent info.

About adding 8 points to the Belmont miles, I didn't know that and I have no idea why. If there were ONE place where a 7F time can be compared to a 1 turn mile at face value it's there, since the runups are equal. If anything, compared to say CD (which has virtually no runup at a mile), I would think that you would want to SUBTRACT something.

As for splitting the variants, I would have left it as is on all of them. If he ran a 121 or 124 or whatever on paper, leave it as such and let the bettor decide whether the horses can repeat that number. Maybe that's just me, but I don't try to make the numbers "fit" what I think the horses can do, but what they actually did. If there's a real reason I think something is wrong (like for example the timer ch on the Withers I was sure of) then I'll take liberties but otherwise I think the more you tinker the more you end up putting your own opinions into the number. Trip and pace were NOT supposed to be a part of the Beyer equation. Seems like the guy who does the CD numbers agrees with me (for the most part) whereas Hopkins doesn't.

[philcski]

While in the end you guessed correctly, it was for the wrong reason. Beyer doesn't use the standard one turn mile chart for races at Belmont. He has not for the whole meet. I'm pretty sure he didn't last year either but I don't remember 100%, so don't quote me on that. He adds about 8 points to the standard chart.

So, if using the regular one turn speed chart, the difference between Quality Road and Driven by Success should be about 12 points, not 16 or 17. But with the different chart in use for Belmont, the figure is actually about 20 points higher. Do you honestly believe the race figure should be 124? I know that I don't. Given that the Met was run in isolation from other dirt races, I think using the horses in the Met is much more accurate than using the other races on the card when you have to decide between the two.

To further befuddle people, the first race was split from the others as well, but I think this is a bad mistake by Hopkins/Beyer. The pace was very fast and the winner still went wire to wire. They gave the race a 77...poor work on that one in my opinion. It is probably a good approximation of the winner, but it makes the ones behind him look better than they actually ran by 10 or 11 points.

Also, on the "raw chart" I have (excluding the Belmont adjustment), DBS' 1:21.75 = 118 and QR's 1:33.11 = 134, do you disagree with that?

[cmorioles]

I agree it is a tough call of when to split and not. However, when a race is isolated and surrounded by turf races on both sides like the Met, more times than not if the horses in the race indicate the track changed speeds it probably did. I'm not saying every time, since there really isn't a way to know until later. But most times, Beyer does a good job in those spots.

On the raw figures, I have them as 120 and 132, but it is done using a computer. The Beyer charts I've seen published tend to go awry as times get extremely fast or slow. I agree about Hopkins, he is probably the worst of the group.