Zenyatta

[The Indomitable DrugS]

There's very little liquidity in the exchange markets right now ... but if you don't like Zenyatta ... you can get over $2,000 against her giving away 3.6-to-1 odds right now.

Here's the odds available right now in a loose market that will tighten up a lot more by Saturday.

Mine That Bird (28/1)
Colonel John (26/1)
Summer Bird (7.4-to-1)
Zenyatta (3.1-to-1)
Twice Over (15/1)
Richard's Kid (21/1)
Gio Ponti (15/1)
Einstein (26/1)
Girolamo (39/1)
Rip Van Winkle (2/1)
Regal Ransom (39/1)
Quality Road (12/1)
Awesome Gem (74/1)

[freddymo]

There's very little liquidity in the exchange markets right now ... but if you don't like Zenyatta ... you can get over $2,000 against her giving away 3.6-to-1 odds right now.

Here's the odds available right now in a loose market that will tighten up a lot more by Saturday.

Mine That Bird (28/1)
Colonel John (26/1)
Summer Bird (7.4-to-1)
Zenyatta (3.1-to-1)
Twice Over (15/1)
Richard's Kid (21/1)
Gio Ponti (15/1)
Einstein (26/1)
Girolamo (39/1)
Rip Van Winkle (2/1)
Regal Ransom (39/1)
Quality Road (12/1)
Awesome Gem (74/1)
You know you are going to lay off the other side at 3 to1

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.

[VOL JACK]

There's very little liquidity in the exchange markets right now ... but if you don't like Zenyatta ... you can get over $2,000 against her giving away 3.6-to-1 odds right now.

Here's the odds available right now in a loose market that will tighten up a lot more by Saturday.

Mine That Bird (28/1)
Colonel John (26/1)
Summer Bird (7.4-to-1)
Zenyatta (3.1-to-1)
Twice Over (15/1)
Richard's Kid (21/1)
Gio Ponti (15/1)
Einstein (26/1)
Girolamo (39/1)
Rip Van Winkle (2/1)
Regal Ransom (39/1)
Quality Road (12/1)
Awesome Gem (74/1)

WOW...Gio Ponti and Einstein look like big overlays.

[freddymo]

WOW...Gio Ponti and Einstein look like big overlays.


If Gio Pionti wins I eat the program

[hockey2315]

WOW...Gio Ponti and Einstein look like big overlays.

Yup

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Still very little liquidity... unless you hate Zenyatta chances at the 3.4-to-3.8 odds range.

http://c1.ac-images.myspacecdn.com/images02/84/l_4ee73c0a68cc4b99a66f74d564523c78.jpg


Numbers are win odds +1. Back is to win. Lay is to bet against winning.

[hockey2315]

How difficult is it to set up an account on one of these exchanges?

[jms62]

How difficult is it to set up an account on one of these exchanges?
Impossible if you live in the US. I used to do pretty well laying off odds on favorites on IBETX. They booted all US customers and I can't find an exchange that will accept them.

[philcski]

How difficult is it to set up an account on one of these exchanges?

impossible, they check your IP address and if you have a US account they won't let you bet.

we NEED Betfair in this country.

[tanner12oz]

isnt matchbook an exchange?

also i gave some 3-1 odds on zenyatta winning....i think this was a smart bet...yall agree or will i be paying come sunday?

[SundaySilence]

impossible, they check your IP address and if you have a US account they won't let you bet.

we NEED Betfair in this country.

You can use a proxy server or other means to hide your IP
www.hidemyip.com
You can come in through Canada, Germany, UK, or Asia. You pick the country.

Still will need a physical address outside US at signup.

[mbahadur]

As a fan of the sport, I would like to see:

(1) Zenyatta win the BC Classic on Saturday.

(2) Stay in training after the BC to face Rachel Alexandra on dirt before being retired to be bred in the spring (which her owners have hinted they might do). The Dubai World Cup on synthetic would be mighty tempting if she were to win the BC Classic against males.

[cakes44]

As a fan of seeing good horses race, I definitely do not want to see Zenyatta win Saturday. All it will do is make even more connections take the easiest route possible for the entire year leading up to the BC.

[KY_Sasquash]

impossible, they check your IP address and if you have a US account they won't let you bet.

we NEED Betfair in this country.

No we dont. We need a system like Betfair that's controlled by horsemen/some national industry pool that allow those types of bets and props, but keeps the money within the industry. The purse structure in Europe is whack.

[cmorioles]

I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.

I honestly don't see how anything they do could change your opinion of how Zenyatta will run in the Classic.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I honestly don't see how anything they do could change your opinion of how Zenyatta will run in the Classic.

I think they are both a great measuring stick of Zenyatta's form .. Life Is Sweet has been racing just behind Zen earlier and not quite finishing with her ... Leathal Heat has been racing a few lengths in front of Zen earlier ... and not quite finishing good enough.

If LIS and LH run a dominant 1-2 in that order .. I think it makes Zenyatta a little harder to strongly oppose.

However .. if LIS and LH both are soundly beaten and off the board ... I think it really takes some steam away from the rabid argument that Zenyatta's recent form looks markedly worse than it actually is.

I've had a lot of success over the years adjusting my opinion in situations like this. If you don't buy into it... that's fine with me. There's a lot of things I buy into even more kooky than something like that.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

zenyatta will lose.....

[JBJake]

IF Z does win, what is the the opinion of the forum? Smith said she only ran about 3 strides her last race and granted it was the same old same old she was beating but it looked pretty impressive. Typically, synthetic does not lead to large margin wins and with her style it does not seem she would ever win by a large margin. Also, it seems pretty obvious she does not like DMR so can't you discount that performance. She is 13 - 13 and from the talk it sounds like the opinion is she she has no shot. Has any filly ever won the Classic? Would this be a bigger accomplishment than RA ast SAR? Not saying she will win but she does have a good shot on this surface....and for everyone who has complained about Sheriiffs and the campaign - at least she is not sitting in barn on THE day she is supposed to be running.

[South Beach Luv]

Beyer's column in the Washington Post today:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/05/AR2009110502549.html

[Danzig]

i tend to ignore most comments, if not all, from the rider. smith also said giacomo flipped his palate in either the preakness or the belmont. he felt he needed an excuse for why the horse didn't run well. it was also untrue that anything had gone wrong with the horse.

zenyatta would be the first female to win the classic should she somehow manage to cross the line first. it's my opinion that her running style will be more of a hindrance tomorrow than in her past races, and that the field she will be joining is far, far superior to anything she has raced to this point. should she win, she would be deserving of every bit of praise....but i'll be amazed if she pulls it off. i've enjoyed watching her run, but that doesn't mean i think she's some sort of super horse. and the 13 for 13 was certainly aided by her campaign and her competition. i have more respect for a horse such as summer bird, who travelled all over, and took on all comers-even with a loss or two, than i do for a horse that's been treated as a hot house flower with huge spacing between races. i give them credit for taking her into a new realm, i didn't think it would happen.

[3kings]

I will play against Zenyatta for these reasons:

She is an underlay at 5/2
She has never run a race @ 1 1/4 mile
It's a big field and her favorite go way wide and pick them off at the end will be much more difficult.
There is not a ton of pace in the race, hurting a deep closers chances.

That being said, I don't have a great opinion on who will win, I just think there are too many things going against Zenyatta.

[Danzig]

I will play against Zenyatta for these reasons:

She is an underlay at 5/2
She has never run a race @ 1 1/4 mile
It's a big field and her favorite go way wide and pick them off at the end will be much more difficult.
There is not a ton of pace in the race, hurting a deep closers chances.

That being said, I don't have a great opinion on who will win, I just think there are too many things going against Zenyatta.


agree on all counts.

[DaTruth]

I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.

How do you feel about her now?

[mbahadur]

I'm not doing anything with Zenyatta until I see how Lethal Heat and Life Is Sweet run in the Distaff.

Nice post DrugS. So what did you learn?

Life Is Sweet had won 3 straight G1/G2 races on the Pro-Ride and then in her next four she was 7 lengths in third to Rail Trip in the Hollywood Gold Cup and finished 2.25, 4.25, and 1.75 lengths behind Zenyatta. I think the Santa Anita Pro-Ride, the extra sixteenth, and crazy pace set by Careless Jewel helped Life Is Sweet.

[10 pnt move up]

Nice post DrugS. So what did you learn?

Life Is Sweet had won 3 straight G1/G2 races on the Pro-Ride and then in her next four she was 7 lengths in third to Rail Trip in the Hollywood Gold Cup and finished 2.25, 4.25, and 1.75 lengths behind Zenyatta. I think the Santa Anita Pro-Ride, the extra sixteenth, and crazy pace set by Careless Jewel helped Life Is Sweet.

The pace was not really set by careless jewel, it was set by lethal heat, that horse running off did nothing to the pace of the rest of the horses that actually ran.

[slotdirt]

Careless Jewel served as a pretty nice rabbit for the rest of the field. I can't imagine Life is Sweet winning without her - and I had the 2.

[slotdirt]

BTW, does anybody have the will-pays to the Classic-Classic double?

[10 pnt move up]

Careless Jewel served as a pretty nice rabbit for the rest of the field. I can't imagine Life is Sweet winning without her - and I had the 2.

really, who wins then? she caught them with an eighth left.

[slotdirt]

And she loped along eleventy billion lengths back whilst the rest of the field chased a rabbit. It seems pretty clear cut to me.

Now, who's going to be Zenyatta's rabbit tomorrow? That's almost exactly how Zenyatta would have won that race today.

[10 pnt move up]

And she loped along eleventy billion lengths back whilst the rest of the field chased a rabbit. It seems pretty clear cut to me.

Now, who's going to be Zenyatta's rabbit tomorrow? That's almost exactly how Zenyatta would have won that race today.

chased, the horse ran off, they were not chasing they let her go...cmon:zz:

[slotdirt]

Seems like half the Euro races out there employ similar tactics, but with intent in most instances. That was a Euro-like race for all intents and purposes.

[10 pnt move up]

Seems like half the Euro races out there employ similar tactics, but with intent in most instances. That was a Euro-like race for all intents and purposes.

i dont think it matters that much when they run off either in those races...

it matters what happened to holy bull in the travers, that was a real rabbit...of course he still won

[RolloTomasi]

The pace was not really set by careless jewel, it was set by lethal heat, that horse running off did nothing to the pace of the rest of the horses that actually ran.

I got the impression that the rider on Proviso jumped the gun, perhaps thinking Careless Jewel was just coasting when well in front, and moved his mount very early into the fast fractions. Both Lethal Heat and Cocoa Beach followed in turn. All 3 were under a drive with still over 3f left to run.

[Pedigree Ann]

Beyer's column in the Washington Post today:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/11/05/AR2009110502549.html

This is the same guy who declared on a pre-race handicapping show that there was no way in hell that Bayakoa could run fast on the lead (at old Gulfstream) and still beat the Eastern closers like Gorgeous. FYI

[RolloTomasi]

This is the same guy who declared on a pre-race handicapping show that there was no way in hell that Bayakoa could run fast on the lead (at old Gulfstream) and still beat the Eastern closers like Gorgeous. FYI

Gorgeous was a CA horse. FYI.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Nice post DrugS. So what did you learn?

Maybe not quite as much about Zenyatta as some may think .. but we did learn something about her chances tomorrow.

I posted the following a week or so ago ...

Careless Jewel is heaven sent for Life Is Sweet.

If you're in the camp that is of the believe that Zenyatta's been made to look extremely ordinary in her last two races because of slow paces ... what does that say for Life Is Sweet - who was the only horse in the race even more disadvantaged than Zenyatta in both instances?

Life Is Sweet is very likely who I will be betting in the Distaff.



I'm not so sure Zenyatta is as much of a slave to pace as Life Is Sweet is ... however, after watching the Distaff, it should be crystal clear that Zenyatta is way better than the two extremely mediocre looking races on paper that she has run in her last two starts.

However, just because Life Is Sweet got a gift from heaven race shape in the Distaff ... doesn't mean Zenyatta will get the same in the Classic .. in fact, unless Regal Ransom and Quality Road do something really stupid .. she might be subjected to another slow pace... though probably not as slow of a pace as the one that made Life Is Sweet lose soundly to Lethal Heat twice.. and get drubbed by Cocoa Beach over the same track a few weeks ago.

Had Lethal Heat finished 2nd today ... I think that would have been a really great win for Zenyatta's chances tomorrow. That certainly didn't happen. Yet it's hardly any knock to Zenyatta's chances tomorrow either ... LH could just be long in the tooth from a tough Barry Abrams campaigin.

All in all ... I think we learned for certain..

* That Life Is Sweet is a VERY dangerous horse when she gets a strong pace. She's a very mediocre one when she gets no pace.

* We learned for 100% certain that Zenyatta is better than her last two races.

What we don't know is what kind of pace Zenyatta gets tomorrow ... surely nothing like the one Careless Jewel helped setup for LIS today.

I'm still going to try and beat Zenyatta tomorrow ... but I won't be all fired up to bet against her.

Now if you guys will excuse me for the rest of the night ... I have to go out and try and make an even bigger fool of myself in Vegas tonight than I normally do posting here.

[Dunbar]

This is the same guy who declared on a pre-race handicapping show that there was no way in hell that Bayakoa could run fast on the lead (at old Gulfstream) and still beat the Eastern closers like Gorgeous. FYI

If you have to go back 20 years to illustrate that the guy could be wrong tomorrow, it's not saying much!

--Dunbar

[tector]

Zenyatta is now likely to be more horribly overbet than even before. So I learned that you must try to beat her or sit out the race. I actually sat out the Ladies Classic today, which preserved my gigantic $3 profit (thanks, She Be Wild). (Actually I had a casino Twin Q alive into the 9th race--it started with the 5th--but could only get one of my horses in the final half).

Damn BC also distracted me from betting the Ack Ack at CD--my 10-1 choice won, naturally.

[10 pnt move up]

I got the impression that the rider on Proviso jumped the gun, perhaps thinking Careless Jewel was just coasting when well in front, and moved his mount very early into the fast fractions. Both Lethal Heat and Cocoa Beach followed in turn. All 3 were under a drive with still over 3f left to run.

I can buy that, but that was on the turn when most horses are going to make a move in that race. The pace was fair IMO.

[10 pnt move up]

Zenyatta is now likely to be more horribly overbet than even before. So I learned that you must try to beat her or sit out the race. I actually sat out the Ladies Classic today, which preserved my gigantic $3 profit (thanks, She Be Wild). (Actually I had a casino Twin Q alive into the 9th race--it started with the 5th--but could only get one of my horses in the final half).

Damn BC also distracted me from betting the Ack Ack at CD--my 10-1 choice won, naturally.

No matter how good Zenyatta is, and she is way better than the 97's beyer has been giving her, you must bet against her in this race, its pure mathematics. She is going to be overbet from what I can see (I was sure wrong on how smart the public is) and her chances of winning are no where near 33% or so.

[3kings]

This is the same guy who declared on a pre-race handicapping show that there was no way in hell that Bayakoa could run fast on the lead (at old Gulfstream) and still beat the Eastern closers like Gorgeous. FYI
How about giving an opinion before the race instead of criticizing others for something that happened years ago. :rolleyes:

[johnny pinwheel]

I can buy that, but that was on the turn when most horses are going to make a move in that race. The pace was fair IMO.
really, fair pace? it was the weirdest race of the day. they went 45 and change. horses that were 6 lenghts behind were not going to make that distance at that pace. every other race was inside speed, even the marathon winner rode the rail closing. when that horse ran off, it was a gift to the winner. the field was not that good to begin with and one of the favorites ran off. music note did not run good and was steadied a little, it left the race wide open. i would not draw any conclusions after that mess. from what i saw if the pace is normal, tactical speed is really good inside. that was the only race that fell apart, the pace was ridiculous.

[10 pnt move up]

really, fair pace? it was the weirdest race of the day. they went 45 and change. horses that were 6 lenghts behind were not going to make that distance at that pace. .

I am not sure if I can agree, take Rainbow View, widely regarded as a contender, she was close to the pace...

She went the half in 47 4/5 and 111 3/5ths.........I dont see how that would not be overcome by a horse in form, now she faded but thats not crazy pace. In fact those are about the fractions of a 2 year old filly who ended up winning earlier. Fast yes, crazy fall apart fast for the middle of the pack, I just see it different. I think the best horse, on this surface, won.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Maybe not quite as much about Zenyatta as some may think .. but we did learn something about her chances tomorrow.

I posted the following a week or so ago ...




I'm not so sure Zenyatta is as much of a slave to pace as Life Is Sweet is ... however, after watching the Distaff, it should be crystal clear that Zenyatta is way better than the two extremely mediocre looking races on paper that she has run in her last two starts.

However, just because Life Is Sweet got a gift from heaven race shape in the Distaff ... doesn't mean Zenyatta will get the same in the Classic .. in fact, unless Regal Ransom and Quality Road do something really stupid .. she might be subjected to another slow pace... though probably not as slow of a pace as the one that made Life Is Sweet lose soundly to Lethal Heat twice.. and get drubbed by Cocoa Beach over the same track a few weeks ago.

Had Lethal Heat finished 2nd today ... I think that would have been a really great win for Zenyatta's chances tomorrow. That certainly didn't happen. Yet it's hardly any knock to Zenyatta's chances tomorrow either ... LH could just be long in the tooth from a tough Barry Abrams campaigin.

All in all ... I think we learned for certain..

* That Life Is Sweet is a VERY dangerous horse when she gets a strong pace. She's a very mediocre one when she gets no pace.

* We learned for 100% certain that Zenyatta is better than her last two races.

What we don't know is what kind of pace Zenyatta gets tomorrow ... surely nothing like the one Careless Jewel helped setup for LIS today.

I'm still going to try and beat Zenyatta tomorrow ... but I won't be all fired up to bet against her.

Now if you guys will excuse me for the rest of the night ... I have to go out and try and make an even bigger fool of myself in Vegas tonight than I normally do posting here.

Life Is Sweet is not a slave to pace. The reason Life Is Sweet won today had very little to do with the pace. They could have run the half in :49 today and she still would have won. She won the El Encino last year coming from dead last into a :50 half. The reason Life Is Sweet hadn't been running well lately had nothing to do with pace. I picked her to win today(Dunbar is my witness), because she was finally staring to look like her old self again.

Santa Anita has always been her favorite track. She was practically unbeatable at Santa Anita during the winter/spring meet. She regressed a little bit at Hollywood and at Del Mar she went way down hill. She trained really poorly down there and didn't like the track at all. One of my best friends is good friends with Wygod. Going into her last race, I asked him how she was doing because I know that she is a much better filly at Santa Anita. He said she was doing a little better but still had not fully recuperated from Del Mar and was not doing nearly as well as earlier in the year. She didn't end up running particularly well that day. At that point I would have given her very little chance today. But I saw her work the other day and I thought she worked great. So I called my friend again to ask him if they thought the filly had moved forward since that last race. He told me that she had moved way forward since her last race and was training like her old self again. That's why I bet her today. I don't think the pace had anything to do with her win today. Don't get me wrong, a fast pace certainly makes things easier for her but she doesn't have to have a fast pace to win.

If you look at her winning races, you will see that when she fires, she comes home extremely fast. At Santa Anita earlier in the year, in the El Encino she came from dead last on a :50 half-mile and won. She ran her final 1/8th of a mile in :11 1/5 that day. She didn't have that explosive kick in her last race. In her last race, they went the half in :49 2/5, which was a similar pace to the El Encino, yet in her last race she only came home in around :12 2/5 or so. She just wasn't the same horse that day. And that's not really a big surprise. The connections said that she wasn't training great going into that race. Yet going into today's race, they said she was training great, like her old self.

[johnny pinwheel]

I am not sure if I can agree, take Rainbow View, widely regarded as a contender, she was close to the pace...

She went the half in 47 4/5 and 111 3/5ths.........I dont see how that would not be overcome by a horse in form, now she faded but thats not crazy pace. In fact those are about the fractions of a 2 year old filly who ended up winning earlier. Fast yes, crazy fall apart fast for the middle of the pack, I just see it different. I think the best horse, on this surface, won.
you are right, that horse loves the track. but, i still disagree about the pace. the second and third quarter were as fast or faster than the sprint run minutes before. when the horses caught up to the loose horse there was still alot of race left. by the end there were 6 tired horse and two that were still running. when 6 out of eight horses are "dead" on their feet halfway down the stretch i think the pace took something out of them. you are right though, that horse could of been bet, i didn't like her.

[Cannon Shell]

This is the same guy who declared on a pre-race handicapping show that there was no way in hell that Bayakoa could run fast on the lead (at old Gulfstream) and still beat the Eastern closers like Gorgeous. FYI
So Andy Beyer has no creditability because of his opinion of a race 20 years ago?

And what qualifies Gorgeous as an Eastern filly?