Breeders Cup Day 2 thoughts [Archive]

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The Indomitable DrugS

11-04-2009, 01:12 AM

* Juvie Turf: Interactif is the only American I will consider using in the top two slot in exotics. I will use Euro's in the top two slots and American horses in the 3rd and 4th slots. The theory being only Interactif is likely good enough to win among our horses. The Euro's will either run very well or totally bomb. The Americans are much more likely to run their race... but their race is likely not good enough.

* Turf Sprint: I think California Flag is the clear best of the speed ... Diamondrella the clear best of the closers ... I will stick my neck out in multi-wins with just those two and hope that the pace goes to an extreme. Either way too fast or way too slow. This is a race where almost everyone will be speading. My favorite type of races to be aggressive with in multi-wins.

* Sprint: I hate betting 3yo's in this race ... and I've always hated betting Eastern horses in the sprint ... but I love Capt Candyman Can.

* Juvenile: Vale of York and Radiohead and longer priced Euro's for the top slot in exotics. All American horses in the 3rd and 4th slots in exotics.

* Mile: Euro's in the tops slots and Americans underneath in exotics. This is like playing bingo. Remember the good old days when you always had a very strong opinion in every single BC race?

* Dirt Mile: Garret Gomez might really regret taking off Furthest Land. I love Furthest Land. Will bet him and make one-way savor exacta with a Euro on top of him.

* Turf: How the hell do the Euro's not win this race?

* Classic: I will not form an opinion on Zenyatta until I see how Life is Sweet and Lethal Heat run in the Distaff. If those two make up the exacta in the Distaff ... Zenyatta becomes very scary.

If Life Is Sweet and Lethal Heat both run out of the money in the Distaff... Zenyatta would have no shot in hell of winning this and might miss the entire Superfecta.

I don't want Summer Bird at all... and though I will use Aidan O' Brien in the 1st slot in exotics .. I won't use him in slots 2, 3 or 4.

Why can't Quality Road carry his form to synthetic from a pedigree standpoint? His sire is the same sire as last years Classic winner Raven's Pass - and his dam sire is a great turf sire.

I'm playing against the three favorites and using Colonel John, Twice Over, Gio Ponti, Einstein, and Quality Road. No QR for the 3rd and 4th slots due to running style. No CJ for the top slot.

Indian Charlie

11-04-2009, 04:05 AM

You love CCC in the sprint?

Frankly, I don't believe that at all.

First, as you said, you don't like three year olds and sprinters in this race.

Second, you've always been pretty lukewarm towards CCC.

Most importantly, Gayego is perhaps your favorite sprinter since FS from a few years back, and before that, I have no idea. He comes into the race off an insanely impressive prep, and now all of a sudden you are off him?

While CCC certainly has a better chance of winning than the RHT1985 love horse does, he seems really way up against it in here.

At this point, Gayego seems like the best play (from a chance of winning vs price) on the day to me.

Maybe I should look over the pps first though!

The Indomitable DrugS

11-04-2009, 04:36 PM

Perhaps you're confusing Gayego with Georgie Boy??

Capt Candyman Can's dirt form towers over these ... and Candy Ride has been a solid synthetic sire .. CCC's synthetic race last time out was strong ... and he projects even a better setup this time and figures to be a much better price.

Indian Charlie

11-04-2009, 04:46 PM

robfla

11-06-2009, 05:58 PM

* Classic: I will not form an opinion on Zenyatta until I see how Life is Sweet and Lethal Heat run in the Distaff. If those two make up the exacta in the Distaff ... Zenyatta becomes very scary. .

Zenyatta just got moved way up

10 pnt move up

11-06-2009, 06:04 PM

Zenyatta just got moved way up

I just think it shows how worthless her figures are, LIS had a 93 and 91 coming in but was compromised by the paces in both races, she came home quick in both of them, thats the figure that matters.

RockHardTen1985

11-06-2009, 07:21 PM

I just think it shows how worthless her figures are, LIS had a 93 and 91 coming in but was compromised by the paces in both races, she came home quick in both of them, thats the figure that matters.

She also ran a 105 over the track.... That was good enough to basicley crush these, and she did just that.

SCUDSBROTHER

11-06-2009, 10:59 PM

Drugs, are you really counting on Baffert getting shut out? I'll be surprised. It's possible, but I would not count on this.

Left Bank

11-07-2009, 10:38 AM

Sightseek

11-07-2009, 11:43 AM

I'm watching at home today maybe,but If the television coverage is anything like yesterdays was,I guess I will be heading to the OTB to see it.I don't see why the camera has to be constantly moved to different shots throughout the race.The ladies classic yesterday was horrible.

I agree. The HD picture was awesome, but they should stick to traditional shots and possibly get creative in replays if it's a tight finish or something happened in the body of the race.

Showing the horses in the paddock would be nice too instead of all the chatter and other things they were showing yesterday.

Coach Pants

11-07-2009, 11:46 AM

I'm putting $50 wp on Richard's Kid. My only wager for the BC.

CSC

11-07-2009, 11:50 AM

I see Cost of Freedom as one of the best bets today, his best which is not unlikely here would definitely put him into a top 3 mix.

GenuineRisk

11-07-2009, 03:08 PM

DrugS, thank you for Vale of York. Fantastic call.

GPK

11-07-2009, 04:21 PM

Furthest Land:$:

You're the best I know Doug

3kings

11-07-2009, 04:32 PM

Great job Doug with Furthest Land, I hope you pounded it.

VOL JACK

11-07-2009, 09:58 PM

Great breeders cup Drugie:tro: :$: ...I give anything to see the call girls you had on each arm after Life is Sweet and Futhest Land won. :D

The Indomitable DrugS

11-09-2009, 10:54 AM

The Indomitable DrugS

11-09-2009, 11:03 AM

DrugS, thank you for Vale of York. Fantastic call.

You're Welcome.

I know most will say coming up with him was all luck ... but I was VERY impressed with Vale Of York's last two races.

* In the Royal Lodge Stakes two races back .. the final time for a Mile was 1:39.55 ... on the very same day at the same distance over the same course ... the older Rip Van Winkle needed 1:38.82 to soundly beat the very highly regarded pair of BC Mile runners Zancinto and Delegator.

Not only did Vale of York's race produce a super fast time .. but reading the chart commets ...

The winner Joshua Tree's comment "Held up early, came wide"

2nd place Waseet's commet "Held up early"

4th place High Twelve comment "slowly into stride. Last of group"

Vale of York's comment for running 3rd was "Raced keenly tracking leaders, ridden to challenge 2f out, drifted right and every chance over 1f out, soon hampered by winner, kept on but no extra"

There are no pace fractions I could find ... but it was obvious Vale of York was clearly against the race shape .. and he still only ran a few lengths slower than supposed super freak older miler Rip Van Winkle.

* In the Grand Criterium in his final BC Juvie Prep .. Vale Of York was 2nd by a neck in a race that went in 1:38.90 seconds. Same day, same track, same distance ... older superstar miler Gladiatorus won a Group 1 race by 4.5 lengths over an undefeated horse in just 1:38.00. They also had a Group Stake for older fillys and mares go 1:39.40 that same day.

Again.. not only a supersonic fast race ... but Vale Of York was also against the race shape.

The winner Hearts of Fire's comment "held up, 9th straight"

3rd place finisher Mata Keranjag comment "held up, 8th straight"

Vale of York's comment as the 2nd place finisher "Led 1 1/2f, 2nd straight, led 3f out, headed inside final furlong, ran on"

Clearly against the race shape. The horses racing 1-2-3-4 early on finished 2nd, 8th, 6th, and 10th .. and all well backed at odds of 7/2, 5/1, 9/1, and 9/1.

I wouldn't try and make speed figures for Europe races .. but considering which older horses ran the same day as him - and the final times ... he came into the BC Juvie at 30/1 odds even though he had the fields most dominant speed figures .. and he was totally against the race shape in those dominant fig races.

I was really crying about the ride he got early on in the race. Vale of York was like gunned out of the gate, than checked and steadied real hard on heels. I was obviously very biased, and need to see the race again, but I was very pissed off with the rider early on ... but after the race .. he's now offically the first Arab guy I ever wanted to kiss on the mouth.

The Indomitable DrugS

11-09-2009, 11:06 AM

Great breeders cup Drugie:tro: :$: ...I give anything to see the call girls you had on each arm after Life is Sweet and Futhest Land won. :D

Yeah ... as cheap as I am with my cash ...it allowed me to upgrade from dates with street hookers to dates with call girls.

Sightseek

11-09-2009, 11:17 AM

Super explaination on how you came up with Vale! :tro:

philcski

11-09-2009, 12:05 PM

Thanks guys.

Everything worked out great and I just absolutely killed them in the P3s and P4s all day long.

Vale of York's win was really big for me. A total absolute game changer because of where the race was positioned on the days card.

Betting horses profitably is as much about clever and creative betting strategy as it is about clever and creative sound handicapping.

My approach to betting the Turf Sprint (I talked about the strategy in the 1st post) turned out to be an absolute masterpiece...the difference between a very good day and a great day. It allowed me to catch Dancing in Silks in the BC Sprint on a spread with a still affordable ticket. Can't say I liked DiS much, but he did have the fields best last race Beyer - and had proved he can win without the lead.

great job all weekend. ****in killed it. the only other person that even MENTIONED Vale of York was Sniper (who also had him as his top selection.)

Dancing in Silks wasn't impossible by any means. if you ignored the morning line... it was a wide open field. he was my 4th choice behind Fatal Bullet, Capt, and Gayego. I didn't like Cal Flag at ALL, which really cost me.

brianwspencer

11-09-2009, 12:18 PM

great job all weekend. ****in killed it. the only other person that even MENTIONED Vale of York was Sniper (who also had him as his top selection.)

Dancing in Silks wasn't impossible by any means. if you ignored the morning line... it was a wide open field. he was my 4th choice behind Fatal Bullet, Capt, and Gayego. I didn't like Cal Flag at ALL, which really cost me.

Gotta Have Her would have made my day ridiculously profitable...unfortunately I played against California Flag entirely and Gotta Have Her got in just enough trouble to keep it from being interesting.

slotdirt

11-09-2009, 12:19 PM

I tried to completely kick out the favorite with Vale of York, and failed. Nice job, DrugSy.

DaTruth

11-09-2009, 12:24 PM

You're Welcome.

I know most will say coming up with him was all luck
.

You did your homework. It wasn't luck. Great job.

Antitrust32

11-09-2009, 12:44 PM

great job all weekend. ****in killed it. the only other person that even MENTIONED Vale of York was Sniper (who also had him as his top selection.)

Dancing in Silks wasn't impossible by any means. if you ignored the morning line... it was a wide open field. he was my 4th choice behind Fatal Bullet, Capt, and Gayego. I didn't like Cal Flag at ALL, which really cost me.

Hey! I picked Vale of York in the BC Contest! (granted I only picked because of the Euro longshot angle and I have an ex who lives in York)

Thought for sure I was going to win the BC Contest when Vale of York won and Corageous Cat ran 2nd next out.. great job mira and RHT!

tector

11-09-2009, 12:58 PM

VoY was my salvation for a modest profit on the day, just because I had him on some back-up tickets. But I certainly did not crush him, or the day--congrats Drugs!

Where did you wind up playing? I was at Green Valley Ranch, which is one of the Station properties. Very comfortable.

I was a LONG day. Had to be at the book by 8am to get a good seat. Then all day horse racing. Then hopped in the car around 5:00pm and went to the Rio to watch the WSOP. Stayed there until 2:45am, when I was just semi-conscious (they finished up--down to two players--at 5:50am). Back to the hotel and sleep around 3:30am.

I am too old for this crap!

philcski

11-09-2009, 01:16 PM

Gotta Have Her would have made my day ridiculously profitable...unfortunately I played against California Flag entirely and Gotta Have Her got in just enough trouble to keep it from being interesting.

Mine too. She was my top choice in that race as well

The Indomitable DrugS

11-13-2009, 03:33 AM

Where did you wind up playing? I was at Green Valley Ranch, which is one of the Station properties. Very comfortable.

I was a LONG day. Had to be at the book by 8am to get a good seat. Then all day horse racing. Then hopped in the car around 5:00pm and went to the Rio to watch the WSOP. Stayed there until 2:45am, when I was just semi-conscious (they finished up--down to two players--at 5:50am). Back to the hotel and sleep around 3:30am.

I am too old for this crap!

Is Green Valley Ranch on or off the strip? I don't think I saw that one.

I was most comfortable in the Ballagio's racebook ... the chairs they have are the bomb. Liked it better than the other ones I saw ... The Rio, Ceaser's Palace, and The Orleans.

The most annoying thing by far was trying to watch a football game on Sunday. All of the racebooks and sportsbooks I went to ... NOT A SINGLE ONE would let you watch football on your personal mini-tv.

They didn't show the Pats game locally - so I couldn't get it in the room... they showed the Cards/Bears game and Colts/Texans game ... so it was impossible to watch the game and horses simultaniously on Sunday.

I had to walk over to the Sports book and strain my neck watching it because every chair was taken.

Food was either great but kind of expensive or good but cheap...depending on where you went.

I was at a buffet and I see an old black guy with a big gold cross .. and two females. One a REAL hot young very light skinned probably white girl .. the other a middle aged asain girl. I swear to God I've seen this guy on tv before but I wasn't sure where. I kept thinking he was connected to boxing somehow...I had to see this guy on a HBO fight telecast somewhere or something. After about ten minutes .. it hit me ... it was Joe Jackson and I saw him on Larry King.

I wish I had my cell phone on me for that .. I would have loved to have got a picture with him and sent it to a few people.

I got to see real actual street hookers for the first time in my life. There were two black girls dressed super trashy prancing around on the sidewalk by the Burger King at 4AM - it was in between where The Palms and Orleans are and where the casino with the roller coaster in front of it is.

I got some cool pics on my cell phone ... but next time I go I have to bring a real camera and take some pics and talk to some of these people.

I was so locked in on the horses and wanting to see my game on Sunday .. and because of how well things went betting on Saturday I needed to be wasting money drinking with strippers and feeling good the rest of the time after that.

But it would have been real epic if I brought a camera and took some pictures and did a story post with them.

Kasept

11-13-2009, 05:03 AM

Doug,

Tremendous work.. Other than using Furthest Land in P3's, which salvaged the day, I stumbled around Saturday.

No streetwalkers in Erie huh?

dalakhani

11-13-2009, 08:31 AM

This is amazing work. Congrats!

BTW, Caesars lets you watch the games at the private tvs. Bellagio does have those wonderful leather chairs that you can just sink into. They also comp pretty well for your play on the horses. The only thing there is that they cut so much into the book to make more room for poker that it feels really congested in there.

The Indomitable DrugS

11-13-2009, 11:38 AM

BTW, Caesars lets you watch the games at the private tvs. Bellagio does have those wonderful leather chairs that you can just sink into.

Yeah, but the private TV's at Caesars are all reserved on Sunday. I can see reserving a few of them ... but all of them?

Yep - the chairs at the Bellagio are the best.

The Indomitable DrugS

11-13-2009, 11:41 AM

Doug,

Tremendous work.. Other than using Furthest Land in P3's, which salvaged the day, I stumbled around Saturday.

No streetwalkers in Erie huh?

Thanks.

It's possible we might have some over on Holland Street. I've heard people say that before ... but I never go through there in the middle of the night.

I'm probably the only person alive deranged enough to want to ask them for a picture with them ... just so I can send it to people.

Sightseek

11-13-2009, 11:44 AM

The photo would make great Christmas cards.

dalakhani

11-13-2009, 12:25 PM

Yeah, but the private TV's at Caesars are all reserved on Sunday. I can see reserving a few of them ... but all of them?

Yep - the chairs at the Bellagio are the best.

You would be surprised how little handle they wanted. There were 3 of us (me, husband and friend) and they only wanted 2-3k handle per day...total. The private tables are where they want the big bucks (15-20k per day or big time diamond club).

GBBob and philly both recommended caesars and i was not disappointed. I loved it. I usually will stay at bellagio or wynn but I have a new appreciation for Caesars. As a funny side note, we saw Pete Rose in there...TWICE. Being there for BC was understandable but betting philly park on a monday at 9:30 a.m. PST was a little sad.

GBBob

11-13-2009, 12:29 PM

[QUOTE=The Indomitable DrugS]Yeah, but the private TV's at Caesars are all reserved on Sunday. I can see reserving a few of them ... but all of them?

Yep - the chairs at the Bellagio are the best.[/QUOT

You would be surprised how little handle they wanted. There were 3 of us (me, husband and friend) and they only wanted 2-3k handle per day...total. The private tables are where they want the big bucks (15-20k per day or big time diamond club).

GBBob and philly both recommended caesars and i was not disappointed. I loved it. I usually will stay at bellagio or wynn but I have a new appreciation for Caesars. As a funny side note, we saw Pete Rose in there...TWICE. Being there for BC was understandable but betting philly park on a monday at 9:30 a.m. PST was a little sad.

Scavs saw him there Sunday afternoon

Scav

11-13-2009, 12:45 PM

[QUOTE=dalakhani]

Scavs saw him there Sunday afternoon

He was yelling at the screen for a first half cover of some kind in the ATL/Wash game. Then he was yapping about Ventura costing him when I was talking to him.

At one point I saw him have about 5-7k in 100's sitting in front of him. I would like to comment on how hilarious he was dressed. He had some half cowboy boots on with some gangsta full white cincy reds hat, and some tricked out glasses with chinese dragons on them.

philcski

11-13-2009, 12:55 PM

You would be surprised how little handle they wanted. There were 3 of us (me, husband and friend) and they only wanted 2-3k handle per day...total. The private tables are where they want the big bucks (15-20k per day or big time diamond club).

GBBob and philly both recommended caesars and i was not disappointed. I loved it. I usually will stay at bellagio or wynn but I have a new appreciation for Caesars. As a funny side note, we saw Pete Rose in there...TWICE. Being there for BC was understandable but betting philly park on a monday at 9:30 a.m. PST was a little sad.

Did you see his little sports memorabilia store in the Forum Shops?

The Indomitable DrugS

11-13-2009, 12:59 PM

As a funny side note, we saw Pete Rose in there...TWICE. Being there for BC was understandable but betting philly park on a monday at 9:30 a.m. PST was a little sad.

I can't make fun of him for that ....

I was behind all day Monday until Kaper Lake first time for Scott Lake in a dirt sprint. I was amazed he paid 5/1 against that field. He didn't exactly perform like Shake You Down though .. was very fortunate to win.

I was hanging around the sports book on Monday Night conflicted about should I watch the football game and root for Pittsburgh because Denver is 1 game up on NE and has a tiebreaker for a playoff bye week- or should I go out and see more naked girls.

Everyone was saying "The Over has cashed every single Monday Night game but one." ... They were also telling me the over had moved like 2.5 points higher for this game from where it opened at. So.. it sounded like fish were driving the total up and not rational thinking by sharp people.

So, I get to thinking .. wait a second .. the Pats are the only NFL team I watch .. and Denver's D did such a masterful job at disguising coverages against them. They basically shut them out in the 2nd half. This game is in Denver ... that game was in Denver.

Why does this game have to go over?

So, I stand around by the betting lines close to kickoff listening and asking people who they like .... and a flood of dummy's come in to bet mostly on Pittsburgh ..and almost everyone who plays a total likes the over.

That cinches it for me ... all the squares like the over... I'll stay here bet the under and watch the game.

There's NOTHING more miserable than watching a game when you have the under. You're basically rooting for handoffs up the middle, holding penalties so long as the team isn't backed up, and a false start by the O-line after a running play by the offense is like the equivlant of hitting a home run in baseball.

I should have the stupid bet won ... but an injury by a Pittsburgh player saves 40 seconds of clock...because when there is an injury with under 2 minutes to go .. the players team gets charged with a timeout. After that, instead of running and icing up the win and ending the game ... Pittsburgh decides to throw a TD to Hines Ward.

Now, I basically feel like defeat is inevitable. Pittsburgh's D is either going to soften up and give a charity TD in the final minute because they're so far ahead ... or shaky Orton will throw a pick six to that hairy bastard from USC in the Steelers secondary.

Orton throws an INT and the Pittsburgh player takes a first step and move like he's determined to take it to the house .. than finally goes to the ground after he sees he won't have an easy TD return.

I won the bet, and it really wasn't even a decent sized bet to get excited about, but it still took all the fun out of watching the game.

I'm not a football bettor .. I know the game, and know how to watch it, but have no idea how to handicap it. If I ever bet an under again ... I swear I will not watch the game.

cakes44

11-13-2009, 01:12 PM

There's NOTHING more miserable than watching a game when you have the under.

Now that is SPOT ON.

Indian Charlie

11-13-2009, 03:32 PM

The last sports bet I made was the under in the NYG/Baltimore Super Bowl.

That was a sick loss.

philcski

11-13-2009, 04:03 PM

There's NOTHING more miserable than watching a game when you have the under.

I bet the under a LOT for the reasons you state. Vegas HAS to shade the line towards the over... because all the money goes there. In general you get about 3 points in value on the under.

That being said... it ain't entertainment. I'd rather watch the Buffalo Bills stumble through another depressing loss than actually watch a game I have money on the under in.

GPK

11-13-2009, 07:09 PM

3kings

11-13-2009, 07:51 PM

[QUOTE=GBBob]

He was yelling at the screen for a first half cover of some kind in the ATL/Wash game. Then he was yapping about Ventura costing him when I was talking to him.

At one point I saw him have about 5-7k in 100's sitting in front of him. I would like to comment on how hilarious he was dressed. He had some half cowboy boots on with some gangsta full white cincy reds hat, and some tricked out glasses with chinese dragons on them.

I see him every time I go to Vegas also. He does a signing every Sat. in the memorabilia store in the Forum shops. It may be every Sunday too. He ate lunch in the Stage Deli every weekend before he signed but I think the Deli closed. Last time I saw him he was sitting at a table right next to a still intoxicated Nicki and Paris Hilton with their entourage. What a contrast, but this is the stuff that makes Vegas great.