View Full Version : Favorites get murdered in post draw
Lookin at Lucky(Far outside), Goldikova(Far outside), Zensational(1 hole) and Mastercraftman(1 hole)
OUCH...
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 04:13 PM
Lookin at Lucky(Far outside), Goldikova(Far outside), Zensational(1 hole) and Mastercraftman(1 hole)
OUCH...
Zensational will be fine... He has UNLIMITED SPEED.
randallscott35
11-03-2009, 04:16 PM
Zensational will be fine... He has UNLIMITED SPEED.
God's gift to the mush.
Bigsmc
11-03-2009, 04:20 PM
God's gift to the mush.
As a service to the rest of the wagering world, I'm hoping he puts all of his picks on one post.
The Indomitable DrugS
11-03-2009, 04:21 PM
The 1 hole has 8 wins going 6fs at Santa Anita this meet. It's the most winningest post at the distance. It also has 10 second place finishes...more than any other post. That's 18-for-50 in the exacta this meet.
I realize he's speed...and your options are limited tactically from there ... but when you draw the most winningest and most placingist post of the meet at the distance ... you're probably not getting murdered by the draw.
As long as the track is fair ... I doubt posts will matter at all in any of the synth races.
The 1 hole has 8 wins going 6fs at Santa Anita this meet. It's the most winningest post at the distance. It also has 10 second place finishes...more than any other post. That's 18-for-50 in the exacta this meet.
I realize he's speed...and your options are limited tactically from there ... but when you draw the most winningest and most placingist post of the meet at the distance ... you're probably not getting murdered by the draw.
As long as the track is fair ... I doubt posts will matter at all in any of the synth races.
Pace wise though, he is getting no breather and will be on go from start to finish, I don't think he can win that way, I thought he would have a chance if Fatal Bullet was inside and he could put the pressure on him, but they are both cooked now
jms62
11-03-2009, 04:27 PM
Now the 1 hole in the turf sprint is whole different issue. 1 Winner... Outside in Turf routes has also been tough so Goldikova got the worst of it.
randallscott35
11-03-2009, 04:27 PM
Pace wise though, he is getting no breather and will be on go from start to finish, I don't think he can win that way, I thought he would have a chance if Fatal Bullet was inside and he could put the pressure on him, but they are both cooked now
Precisely. I like FB a lot but this is a tough spot for him b/c of Zensational. I really don't know who I like as much as I don't like Zen and FB probably gets cooked.
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 04:28 PM
The 1 hole has 8 wins going 6fs at Santa Anita this meet. It's the most winningest post at the distance. It also has 10 second place finishes...more than any other post. That's 18-for-50 in the exacta this meet.
I realize he's speed...and your options are limited tactically from there ... but when you draw the most winningest and most placingist post of the meet at the distance ... you're probably not getting murdered by the draw.
As long as the track is fair ... I doubt posts will matter at all in any of the synth races.
I Looked all that up first, but I had to stick to my style.
Now the 1 hole in the turf sprint is whole different issue. 1 Winner... Outside in Turf routes has also been tough so Goldikova got the worst of it.
That is because the outside posts are good down the hill, they are actually somewhat considered the inside because of that first bend. Outside horse with speed in any other race then this one down the hill is golden. But this race is like non other, insane fractions.....
That is because the outside posts are good down the hill, they are actually somewhat considered the inside because of that first bend. Outside horse with speed in any other race then this one down the hill is golden. But this race is like non other, insane fractions.....
Insane fractions? Thanks Capt. Obvious
The Indomitable DrugS
11-03-2009, 04:40 PM
Does anyone have a link to the fields?
Does anyone have a link to the fields?
Not yet, I was going to wait for Byk to do them in his formatty fun way but if he isn't doing it till later I can type it all out if he wants me to
brockguy
11-03-2009, 04:46 PM
Lookin at Lucky(Far outside), Goldikova(Far outside), Zensational(1 hole) and Mastercraftman(1 hole)
OUCH...
no worries for Goldi.. I told you not to use Mastercraftsman.. I doubt he even gets placed in the mile!!
Antitrust32
11-03-2009, 04:55 PM
so Zenyatta is actually going to the Classic. WOW.
Fulla Sheets
11-03-2009, 05:02 PM
so Zenyatta is actually going to the Classic. WOW.
I have a dumb question.
If Zenyatta is beat by Summer Bird in the Classic, does this mean Rachel Alexandra will be the HOY? She has already beaten Summer Bird by 8 lengths in the Haskel, even though it was on a completely different surface. Or has the Rachel-Zenyatta thing been over for a while now?
TitanSooner
11-03-2009, 05:03 PM
I have a dumb question.
If Zenyatta is beat by Summer Bird in the Classic, does this mean Rachel Alexandra will be the HOY? She has already beaten Summer Bird by 8 lengths in the Haskel, even though it was on a completely different surface. Or has the Rachel-Zenyatta thing been over for a while now?
most votes were cast in early September.. this one's over.
randallscott35
11-03-2009, 05:12 PM
Karelian 6-1??? What planet is Jon White on.
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 05:16 PM
Karelian 6-1??? What planet is Jon White on.
Where are you seeing this?
randallscott35
11-03-2009, 05:16 PM
Where are you seeing this?
bloodhorse
smuthg
11-03-2009, 05:17 PM
Lookin at Lucky(Far outside), Goldikova(Far outside), Zensational(1 hole) and Mastercraftman(1 hole)
OUCH...
now Careless Jewel on the rail... WOW
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 05:21 PM
The dirt mile morning line is AS BAD AS IT GETS.
The dirt mile morning line is AS BAD AS IT GETS.
Are you going to do an official RHT1985 picks thread.
I would really appreciate it if possible, and by tomorrow night also
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 05:26 PM
Are you going to do an official RHT1985 picks thread.
I would really appreciate it if possible, and by tomorrow night also
Im waiting for fridays card to be drawn... I will have all my pick 3's up within an hour after its posted on formulator.
randallscott35
11-03-2009, 05:28 PM
Im waiting for fridays card to be drawn... I will have all my pick 3's up within an hour after its posted on formulator.
Waiting with baited breath.
Im waiting for fridays card to be drawn... I will have all my pick 3's up within an hour after its posted on formulator.
Outstanding...
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 05:31 PM
Outstanding...
The 8 has a giant shot in the Juvy...
randallscott35
11-03-2009, 05:32 PM
The 8 has a giant shot in the Juvy...
You remind me of David Johanssen in Let It Ride....giving blood by the 6th race.
letswastemoney
11-03-2009, 05:34 PM
is there a link to the full ML for all the races?
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 05:37 PM
You remind me of David Johanssen in Let It Ride....giving blood by the 6th race.
You have to admit with the chalk drawing so poorly you want to look for alternatives... I think the 8 is the alternative, you should get 6 or 7-1 on him.
You have to admit with the chalk drawing so poorly you want to look for alternatives... I think the 8 is the alternative, you should get 6 or 7-1 on him.
On BC Day, that isn't an alternative, that is an alternative favorite...
randallscott35
11-03-2009, 05:38 PM
You have to admit with the chalk drawing so poorly you want to look for alternatives... I think the 8 is the alternative, you should get 6 or 7-1 on him.
Rock, I don't even know who the 8 is in that race. I'm just thinkng of who you remind me of.
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 05:39 PM
On BC Day, that isn't an alternative, that is an alternative favorite...
Well he could be higher... Im just guessing he will get bet, first out on turf he ran well and that 90 beyer last time was decent.
Well he could be higher... Im just guessing he will get bet, first out on turf he ran well and that 90 beyer last time was decent.
It was a slop race, slop numbers mean nothing
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 05:42 PM
It was a slop race, slop numbers mean nothing
Well I hope everyone thinks that and he goes off at 15-1.... I thought his run 1st out was sneaky good.
Well I hope everyone thinks that and he goes off at 15-1.... I thought his run 1st out was sneaky good.
Your sneaky good
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 05:43 PM
Your sneaky good
I really am, and Im glad you are starting to realize it.
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 05:44 PM
Visit is making me think INTERCONTINENTAL
randallscott35
11-03-2009, 05:47 PM
Visit is making me think INTERCONTINENTAL
I just threw up in my mouth.
jwkniska
11-03-2009, 05:47 PM
is there a link to the full ML for all the races?
http://breederscup.com/content.aspx?id=43051
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 05:48 PM
I just threw up in my mouth.
Stop, we both know you did not do that.
I dont really like her, Im just saying. Im only playing pick 3's, so I will use her with a few others.
tiznowthegreat
11-03-2009, 06:08 PM
no worries for Goldi.. I told you not to use Mastercraftsman.. I doubt he even gets placed in the mile!!
Would be curious for you to elaborate on your opinion on Mastercraftsman. He looks to completely outclass this field.
Sightseek
11-03-2009, 06:19 PM
Visit is making me think INTERCONTINENTAL
I think Juddmonte is more likely to see victory with Midday.
brockguy
11-03-2009, 06:21 PM
Would be curious for you to elaborate on your opinion on Mastercraftsman. He looks to completely outclass this field.
I think he is now too slow for a mile. While his early wins looks alright, his Irish 2000 Guineas win was in bottomless ground so it put such an emphasis on stamina rather than speed.
His best trip IMO is 10f. The usual rule of thumb for a turfer that I follow is that you want them running on the synthetics or dirt over a trip just further than their optimal (think Ravens Pass, Henrythenavigator, Giants Causeway etc)
He is a grinder to me, I can see him running the exact same type of race as Duke Of Marmalade (who was IMO, also dropping down from his optimal trip in the Classic last year). I will avoid him completely..
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 06:22 PM
I think he is now too slow for a mile. While his early wins looks alright, his Irish 2000 Guineas win was in bottomless ground so it put such an emphasis on stamina rather than speed.
His best trip IMO is 10f. The usual rule of thumb for a turfer that I follow is that you want them running on the synthetics or dirt over a trip just further than their optimal (think Ravens Pass, Henrythenavigator, Giants Causeway etc)
He is a grinder to me, I can see him running the exact same type of race as Duke Of Marmalade (who was IMO, also dropping down from his optimal trip in the Classic last year). I will avoid him completely..
Furthest Land at 20-1 is CRAZY.
Thunder Gulch
11-03-2009, 06:58 PM
The rail has an impact value well over 1.00 in almost every race except the turf sprints. I don't know why everyone thinks being there is a bad thing. Pace scenarios aside, that's the place to be. It was just a couple years back when half the winners were on the rail.
On the other hand, Goldlikova and Looking at Lucky are seriously compromised and will have to be much the best- which they may be.
RockHardTen1985
11-03-2009, 07:00 PM
The rail has an impact value well over 1.00 in almost every race except the turf sprints. I don't know why everyone thinks being there is a bad thing. Pace scenarios aside, that's the place to be. It was just a couple years back when half the winners were on the rail.
On the other hand, Goldlikova and Looking at Lucky are seriously compromised and will have to be much the best- which they may be.
I think Goldikova is in serious TROUBLE.
brockguy
11-03-2009, 07:02 PM
I think Goldikova is in serious TROUBLE.
:)
randallscott35
11-03-2009, 07:13 PM
Goldikova won't have a problem with her style. If she can drop back I don't see it making a difference. I do think the field is better this time though.
GBBob
11-03-2009, 07:28 PM
:)
Wheatabix
philcski
11-03-2009, 07:49 PM
The 8 has a giant shot in the Juvy...
DUDE...
take a break. Take a drink of water, or beer, or Jack. you are going wayyy too fast. You've got 4.5 days until the gates open for this race. How about formulating some thoughts, weighing them in your mind, and making a better decision Friday night or Saturday morning??? There is no reason to have a final opinion at this point.
VOL JACK
11-03-2009, 07:52 PM
Furthest Land at 20-1 is CRAZY.
Please dont F this play up for me.
tiznowthegreat
11-03-2009, 07:54 PM
I think he is now too slow for a mile. While his early wins looks alright, his Irish 2000 Guineas win was in bottomless ground so it put such an emphasis on stamina rather than speed.
His best trip IMO is 10f. The usual rule of thumb for a turfer that I follow is that you want them running on the synthetics or dirt over a trip just further than their optimal (think Ravens Pass, Henrythenavigator, Giants Causeway etc)
He is a grinder to me, I can see him running the exact same type of race as Duke Of Marmalade (who was IMO, also dropping down from his optimal trip in the Classic last year). I will avoid him completely..
I would agree that a mile might not be his best trip but I don't think against these that he has to be at his best trip. Duke of Marmalade last year had been facing slightly better than what he faced in last years classic. I think Mastercraftsmen is facing MUCH worse than what he has been facing and what he beat earlier this year in a couple G1 at a mile. He probably is better at longer than a mile, but I do think he is good enough at a mile to handle these. I guess my main thought is that it seems like he doesn't have to be at his best trip to beat these.
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