Any horses/win bets in this year's BC

[Gander]

Are there any horses you are looking forward to making win bets on or using as singles in vertical wagers in any of the races?

Its usually a really good day to make win bets because you are getting like 5 or 6/1 on horses that usually are no more than 5/2 or 3/1.

[cakes44]

I'll do you one better. I will likely hammer an Informed Decision/Ventura ex box regardless of who else is in the field and without even looking at the form.

[VOL JACK]

Im looking forward to betting against Zen&Zen.

[Gander]

I'll do you one better. I will likely hammer an Informed Decision/Ventura ex box regardless of who else is in the field and without even looking at the form.

I thought Ventura is running in the BC Mile? After she spanked that nice field in Woodbine, I thought it was pretty much a no brainer she is going to this race instead of trying to defend in the filly/mare sprint?

[Scav]

I'll do you one better. I will likely hammer an Informed Decision/Ventura ex box regardless of who else is in the field and without even looking at the form.

Exactly....

[pweizer]

Besides the fact that this exacta will pay about $8, the Godolphin runners pointed to that race are no slouches.

Paul

[Cannon Shell]

I'm waiting until PG1985 gives me his advice before i do anything

[jms62]

The value Breeders cup day is in Rolling the P3's. I usually play a large caveman and a few more isolated plays per race.

[Sightseek]

I'm waiting until PG1985 gives me his advice before i do anything

Solid strategy. :$:

[richard]

I will play Jung Man Scott .

[jms62]

I will play Jung Man Scott .
If I recall he is out.. Injuried last out

[richard]

ohh i'm sorry to hear that but thanks. hope he recovers . a fracture of his right front to be repaired surgically, according to a note on pedigreequery. it says there that ieah also bought into him .

[smuthg]

I thought Ventura is running in the BC Mile? After she spanked that nice field in Woodbine, I thought it was pretty much a no brainer she is going to this race instead of trying to defend in the filly/mare sprint?

I think you'd be crazy to pass up any of the sprint races for a shot at Goldikova.

[Gander]

I think you'd be crazy to pass up any of the sprint races for a shot at Goldikova.

I think Ventura would give Goldikova all she could handle.

[RockHardTen1985]

I'm waiting until PG1985 gives me his advice before i do anything
I will play Cowboy Cal and Court Vision in the mile. Zensational cant lose, and he might be 7-5 with the likes of Fatal Bullet and Gayego... Wont bet him to win but will single him in every pick 3 that I cant. Just as Well might have a shot in the turf. Zenyatta will win the Classic if she runs there.

[RolloTomasi]

Assuming he duplicates his last, Gayego looks like a near certainty in the Sprint.

Haven't seen the East coast contenders, but since they haven't tasted the Pro-Ride anyways, I think Lookin At Lucky will be tough to beat in the Juvenile at this point.

It will be interesting to see if Parading ends up in the Dirt Mile. Not sure why he's been so eager in his last two, but if he can settle a little further off the pace, it might give his jock a better shot of timing his move to a more appropriate point in the race. He's been bet down in his last 2, I'm sure he'll be a very round number if McGaughey enters him.

[RolloTomasi]

I will play Cowboy Cal and Court Vision in the mile. Zensational cant lose, and he might be 7-5 with the likes of Fatal Bullet and Gayego... Wont bet him to win but will single him in every pick 3 that I cant. Just as Well might have a shot in the turf. Zenyatta will win the Classic if she runs there.

Cowboy Cal ran huge over the weekend, but have to think the effort might have put him over the top. His 0-for record in Grade 1 races, plus his vulnerability down the lane, make him sketchy at best in the Mile. The Dirt Mile would be a better fit in terms of class, experience (2 for 2 at Santa Anita), and race setup.

[RockHardTen1985]

Assuming he duplicates his last, Gayego looks like a near certainty in the Sprint.

Haven't seen the East coast contenders, but since they haven't tasted the Pro-Ride anyways, I think Lookin At Lucky will be tough to beat in the Juvenile at this point.

It will be interesting to see if Parading ends up in the Dirt Mile. Not sure why he's been so eager in his last two, but if he can settle a little further off the pace, it might give his jock a better shot of timing his move to a more appropriate point in the race. He's been bet down in his last 2, I'm sure he'll be a very round number if McGaughey enters him.

Agree about Looking at Lucky, he might be 6-5 or lower. DRF article said if Parading did not win his last, SHug was shipping him back East and no Breeders Cup.
How can Gayego be a near lock? What about Zensational?

[RolloTomasi]

Agree about Looking at Lucky, he might be 6-5 or lower. DRF article said if Parading did not win his last, SHug was shipping him back East and no Breeders Cup.
How can Gayego be a near lock? What about Zensational?

He might have a change of heart as far as the Dirt Mile is concerned, but the Classic is probably out.

Seems like many people are viewing the Dirt Mile as a secondary race (eg Dick Mandella with Crown Of Thorns) to avoid the real heavy hitters. This only validates that ultimately the race probably takes away from both the Sprint and the Classic.

Beyond the "preview" races at Oak Tree and Belmont, the Breeder's Cup is even ruining their own original championship races.

[cakes44]

Agree about Looking at Lucky, he might be 6-5 or lower. DRF article said if Parading did not win his last, SHug was shipping him back East and no Breeders Cup.
How can Gayego be a near lock? What about Zensational?

There's almost always $$ to be made trying to beat speedballs like Zensational in the BC Sprint. I'll be staying the heck away from him. If he wins that race with his style, he'll have to be an absolute monster. Maybe he is?

[Gander]

There's almost always $$ to be made trying to beat speedballs like Zensational in the BC Sprint. I'll be staying the heck away from him. If he wins that race with his style, he'll have to be an absolute monster. Maybe he is?

I doubt he is. For a horse with such excellent early speed, he sure does have a tendency to not break alertly, but use his speed to rush up and get the lead shortly thereafter. He hasnt faced anybody with any good early speed, so the jury is still very much out. To me, this is a horse you have to bet against, or just watch and have a hot fudge sundae.

Hard to envision a wire to wire win if the field is as big and as loaded with early speed as it has been rumored.

[RolloTomasi]

How can Gayego be a near lock? What about Zensational?

I would be looking to beat Zensational even if he was pointing for the Damascus (3yo, 7f) on the undercard.

[RockHardTen1985]

I doubt he is. For a horse with such excellent early speed, he sure does have a tendency to not break alertly, but use his speed to rush up and get the lead shortly thereafter. He hasnt faced anybody with any good early speed, so the jury is still very much out. To me, this is a horse you have to bet against, or just watch and have a hot fudge sundae.

Hard to envision a wire to wire win if the field is as big and as loaded with early speed as it has been rumored.


I think he rolls and is 100% the goods...
And what the f on Sunday?

[NTamm1215]

Horses like Zensational who have a lot of hype and not a great deal of substance are the very type that you can make a great deal of money beating.

In the Pat O'Brien he faced a woefully bad field of five where the next best horse was Noble Court, whose biggest accomplishment in 2009 was a win in the Ack Ack, a race that featured one of the most remarkable pace collapses in the history of racing. Zensational was the only speed and got away with a first quarter in :23.

In the Bing Crosby he once again faced a pace-challenged field as Delta Storm was the only horse who could keep him even remotely honest. He ran hard to clear and stayed clear in a solid effort.

The race that impressed me from him more than any other was the Friday night optional claimer where he stalked and took over through maniacal fractions. That, however, can't look as good when you consider the caliber of horses he was holding off late.

He's going to face incredible early pressure from the word go even if the other speed is simply Fatal Bullet. I am very interested in betting against him if he's going to be asked to withstand early pressure and still stand up late.

NT

[Gander]

I like Church Service in the Marathon. I think the euros will be greatly overbet in here given one won this race last year (and Muhannak is right back to defend his title). Watch the finish of Church Service from last year.
Big Booster also has to be mentioned but I think Church Service is a bit better on this surface.

[NTamm1215]

I like Church Service in the Marathon. I think the euros will be greatly overbet in here given one won this race last year (and Muhannak is right back to defend his title). Watch the finish of Church Service from last year.
Big Booster also has to be mentioned but I think Church Service is a bit better on this surface.

He's not running...

No repeat bid for Church Service

Church Service finished second in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Marathon here, but will not start in that race this year, Mitchell said. Church Service is winless in five starts this year, including an eighth-place finish in the Washington Park Handicap at Arlington Park last month.

"He needed a break," Mitchell said. "I would have loved to have run him in the Marathon, but he came back from Chicago kind of beat up and worn out."

http://www.drf.com/news/article/107837.html

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Horses like Zensational who have a lot of hype and not a great deal of substance are the very type that you can make a great deal of money beating.

In the Pat O'Brien he faced a woefully bad field of five where the next best horse was Noble Court, whose biggest accomplishment in 2009 was a win in the Ack Ack, a race that featured one of the most remarkable pace collapses in the history of racing. Zensational was the only speed and got away with a first quarter in :23.

In the Bing Crosby he once again faced a pace-challenged field as Delta Storm was the only horse who could keep him even remotely honest. He ran hard to clear and stayed clear in a solid effort.

The race that impressed me from him more than any other was the Friday night optional claimer where he stalked and took over through maniacal fractions. That, however, can't look as good when you consider the caliber of horses he was holding off late.

He's going to face incredible early pressure from the word go even if the other speed is simply Fatal Bullet. I am very interested in betting against him if he's going to be asked to withstand early pressure and still stand up late.

NT

I really dont see a sceniro where he gets beat. We shall see.

[Kasept]

Isn't Zensational similar to Henny Hughes? Henny was viewed as a very likely winner in his BC Sprint, and it took exactly the time for the latch to spring for his race to be over.

[RockHardTen1985]

I like Church Service in the Marathon. I think the euros will be greatly overbet in here given one won this race last year (and Muhannak is right back to defend his title). Watch the finish of Church Service from last year.
Big Booster also has to be mentioned but I think Church Serviasce is a bit better on this surface.
People always talk about the Euros being overbet, they are 90% of the time just flat out better.... Look at last year, I belive an Americans best shot in the turf is Just as Well and best shot in the Classic is Zenyatta, and that is not saying much.

[Gander]

He's not running...

No repeat bid for Church Service

Church Service finished second in the 2008 Breeders' Cup Marathon here, but will not start in that race this year, Mitchell said. Church Service is winless in five starts this year, including an eighth-place finish in the Washington Park Handicap at Arlington Park last month.

"He needed a break," Mitchell said. "I would have loved to have run him in the Marathon, but he came back from Chicago kind of beat up and worn out."

http://www.drf.com/news/article/107837.html

NT

Ugh, thanks for the update.

[Gander]

People always talk about the Euros being overbet, they are 90% of the time just flat out better.... Look at last year, I belive an Americans best shot in the turf is Just as Well and best shot in the Classic is Zenyatta, and that is not saying much.

I wasnt talking about the turf or the Classic. Just the Marathon. And I dont think much of last year's winner coming back with another dream trip win like that.

[Gate Dancer]

I was interested in Family Foundation in the Bourbon Stakes last Saturday and will stay interested in him in he goes in the Juv Turf.

[RockHardTen1985]

I was interested in Family Foundation in the Bourbon Stakes last Saturday and will stay interested in him in he goes in the Juv Turf.


This is the race that IMO is ripe for a Euro... With this Pletcher horse getting a ton of attention, I am excited to see the Euros for this.... I also think Todd has another horse, a Giants Causeway that might be pretty dam good.

[randallscott35]

Isn't Zensational similar to Henny Hughes? Henny was viewed as a very likely winner in his BC Sprint, and it took exactly the time for the latch to spring for his race to be over.

Ding ding ding. Huge play against for me.

[the_fat_man]

Isn't Zensational similar to Henny Hughes? Henny was viewed as a very likely winner in his BC Sprint, and it took exactly the time it took for the latch to spring for his race to be over.

I think this horse is better than HH. But it's hard to tell how good he really is because when I watch his races, I'm always left thinking that he didn't win 'cleanly' and that he'd have won much easier and by a wider margin with a cleaner trip. Even his last race, where he changed leads and stayed righty the entire stretch, he was drifting periodically on the backstretch and switching leads early. His footwork seems to be getting better, however. Though, Espinoza is definitely NOT the jock I'd want up on him. Doubtful this horse is able to stay straight on the backstretch in a large field which could compromise his chances.

I don't know who else is pointed for the Sprint but if there's some more pace in the race, and they decide to go with Z, rather than rate him just off it, I don't see why Noble Court wouldn't have as good a chance as any of the others. (Assuming he's going, of course.)

[brianwspencer]

I was interested in Family Foundation in the Bourbon Stakes last Saturday and will stay interested in him in he goes in the Juv Turf.

Interesting. I think he's the goods, so I'm with you.

[RockHardTen1985]

I think this horse is better than HH. But it's hard to tell how good he really is because when I watch his races, I'm always left thinking that he didn't win 'cleanly' and that he'd have won much easier and by a wider margin with a cleaner trip. Even his last race, where he changed leads and stayed righty the entire stretch, he was drifting periodically on the backstretch and switching leads early. His footwork seems to be getting better, however. Though, Espinoza is definitely NOT the jock I'd want up on him. Doubtful this horse is able to stay straight on the backstretch in a large field which could compromise his chances.

I don't know who else is pointed for the Sprint but if there's some more pace in the race, and they decide to go with Z, rather than rate him just off it, I don't see why Noble Court wouldn't have as good a chance as any of the others. (Assuming he's going, of course.)


I told someone earlier I thought Z was better "faster" then LITF and HH and the person told me I was crazy.

[RolloTomasi]

I was interested in Family Foundation in the Bourbon Stakes last Saturday and will stay interested in him in he goes in the Juv Turf.

You can trace just about every stakes horse Glen Hill Farm ever bred in that horse's pedigree, top and bottom.

[randallscott35]

I told someone earlier I thought Z was better "faster" then LITF and HH and the person told me I was crazy.
He's never run a figure close to either. Not one.

[RockHardTen1985]

He's never run a figure close to either. Not one.

I think your confused... This is also the synthetic era now, and Z is a freak on it. I think Zensationals top beyer is a 111... I dont remember LITF running anything that high.

[brianwspencer]

I think your confused... This is also the synthetic era now, and Z is a freak on it. I think Zensationals top beyer is a 111... I dont remember LITF running anything that high.

Except for that 116, if I recall. And that 109 as a 2-year old.

[RockHardTen1985]

Except for that 116, if I recall. And that 109 as a 2-year old.
Your probablly right, I said I dont remember and Im not paying for his pp's on drf. Im trying to find them on formulator but its not working.

[Gander]

LITF was much faster (to date) than Zensational but then again, the Zen Master has yest to be in a race that forces his hand. So you never know, he may have one in him that could rival a 115 like number. I think XTra Heat was much faster too. I was never a big Henny Hughes fan.

The thing that Zensational has going for him is the surface, and lack of significant high quality challengers that have shown an ability to run well on this crap. Henny Hughes was facing top flight dirt sprinters on a dirt track. Fatal Bullet looks like the other synthetics lover, but I think it kind of hurts both of their chances given their styles of running are exactly the same. I wasnt that impressed with Fatal Bullet's race on Friday either. I would use Zensational at 6/5 before I used Fatal Bullet at 3/1.

I will either be taking a shot against him or just passing the race.

How about Kodiak Kowboy and his chances? Perfect running style for the crap, and I believe he had a few races on it early in his career, maybe at Keeneland?

[RockHardTen1985]

LITF was much faster (to date) than Zensational but then again, the Zen Master has yest to be in a race that forces his hand. So you never know, he may have one in him that could rival a 115 like number. I think XTra Heat was much faster too. I was never a big Henny Hughes fan.

The thing that Zensational has going for him is the surface, and lack of significant high quality challengers that have shown an ability to run well on this crap. Henny Hughes was facing top flight dirt sprinters on a dirt track. Fatal Bullet looks like the other synthetics lover, but I think it kind of hurts both of their chances given their styles of running are exactly the same. I wasnt that impressed with Fatal Bullet's race on Friday either. I would use Zensational at 6/5 before I used Fatal Bullet at 3/1.

I will either be taking a shot against him or just passing the race.

How about Kodiak Kowboy and his chances? Perfect running style for the crap, and I believe he had a few races on it early in his career, maybe at Keeneland?
Beyer wise, I think Zensationals top is a 111 and hes been in between 104-111... the key IMO is he's so lightly raced, how does he not stilll have room to improve... If someone could post LITF/HH pp's it would be appreciated.

[Sightseek]

Except for that 116, if I recall. And that 109 as a 2-year old.

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/lostinthefog.pdf

http://www.drf.com/bc/2009/pps/Zensational.pdf

[RockHardTen1985]

http://www.drf.com/row/pps/lostinthefog.pdf

http://www.drf.com/bc/2009/pps/Zensational.pdf


Thanks for the PPS.

So at Bay Meadows and Calder LITF ran 2 beyers higher then Z's top. I think Z is better.
Zensational has won 3 Grade 1's, LITF 1.
I will take that anyday.

[NTamm1215]

Thanks for the PPS.

So at Bay Meadows and Calder LITF ran 2 beyers higher then Z's top. I think Z is better.
Zensational has won 3 Grade 1's, LITF 1.
I will take that anyday.

That's an absolutely idiotic measuring stick.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

That's an absolutely idiotic measuring stick.

NT

So then what would you measure them by? Read how Crist felt about LITF, even trip after easy trip vs no ones.

[NTamm1215]

So then what would you measure them by? Read how Crist felt about LITF, even trip after easy trip vs no ones.

I wouldn't measure them by anything because comparisons like this are dumb. There's absolutely no way to do it intelligently. They both got good at the right time and had very little competition that was worth noting. One flopped in the biggest race of his life, we'll see how the other one does.

The only race where LITF got away with anything ridiculous was at CrC but otherwise, when you go :44 and change you often make your own trip.

NT

[Cannon Shell]

That's an absolutely idiotic measuring stick.

NT
It is but I've seen it used here alot by others who dont get called out. Please mind your own business, work on the spelling and leave him alone. I need his views in the rest of the races and we have about 10 more categories to go.

[eajinabi]

Rip Van Winkle

[DerbyCat]

I wouldn't measure them by anything because comparisons like this are dumb. There's absolutely no way to do it intelligently. They both got good at the right time and had very little competition that was worth noting. One flopped in the biggest race of his life, we'll see how the other one does.

The only race where LITF got away with anything ridiculous was at CrC but otherwise, when you go :44 and change you often make your own trip.

NT


I wouldn't say he "flopped", I'd say he had a cancerous tumor the size of a football and still ran his guts out, the fact he was on the track that day still trying to win was kind of amazing.

[RockHardTen1985]

It is but I've seen it used here alot by others who dont get called out. Please mind your own business, work on the spelling and leave him alone. I need his views in the rest of the races and we have about 10 more categories to go.


Chuck I wont take this anymore. My handicapping skills are improving, check the selections room, this weekend I did well. Everything posted well ahead of time.

[Gate Dancer]

I was interested in Family Foundation in the Bourbon Stakes last Saturday and will stay interested in him in he goes in the Juv Turf.

FYI.......
Family Foundation is running in the 7th race at Calder on Saturday the 14th in the Arthur I Appleton Juvenile Turf.