2/5 (GP 7): Turf Sprint Project -- R1

[Kasept]

Pick 1 horse as your winner with brief thoughts on attributes or what appeals to you about why the runner can or will win...

Any comments on the race are welcome of course...

We will feature 2 of these turf sprints or so per week for a while to see if collectively we can spot trends or angles that can be considered uniform in these tricky races.


PP'S: http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/mcpeek_137838.pdf

Thurs. 2/5: GULFSTREAM 7th (4:12)

5 Furlongs (Turf) | Fillies and Mares | 4 Year Olds And Up Claiming ($35,000 - $30,000) | Purse: $23,000

1 Blood Diamonds Leparoux J R 122 $35,000 L
2 Judge's Pride Ortiz J F 115 $30,000 L
3 Classic Lake Marquez C H Jr 120 $30,000 L
4 Dances for Tips Ramirez M R 120 $30,000 L
5 Kit Cat Caton Cruz M R 122 $35,000 L
6 Tickle Me Tick Monserrate J A Jr 115 $35,000 L
7 Girl Glitter Fuentes R D 120 $30,000 L
8 Stormy Lake (ARG) Desormeaux K J 122 $35,000 L
9 Mymissjuliac Coa E M 122 $35,000 L
10 Split the Clouds Bridgmohan J V 122 $35,000 L
11 Regal Bird Velazquez J R 122 $35,000 L
12 Miss Shangai Trujillo E 122 $35,000 Blk-Off L
AE Macumbira Toribio A R 122 $35,000 L

[swedejxn]

This should be very interesting.... Let's get the first variable out of the way...
3/4 inch of rain overnight... Breezy and Sunny for the rest of the week...
Lawn should be perfect by Thursday!

[swedejxn]

Stormy Lake is my choice... ran well for a half on Grass in first race... Ran good race in dirt sprint last... While not showing a huge kick may have learned to rate a bit during the winter... McPeek hot/ Jock/trainer hot.. McPeek 25% and + ROI on dirt to turf move...

am worried about Kit Cat turning loose and not looking back after two route efforts ... Same scenario when breaking Mdn...

wouldn't leave out

[Bobby Fischer]

Stormy lake if I had to pick a winner here. Mcpeek and Robbins have had a pretty good thing going. She did fail the keeneland test... she isn't anywhere near a lock.

[GBBob]

I would give MymissJuliac a look..Has the speed that this turf course has been favoring, ran against similar last time out, returning to possible preferred surface and Coa stays on. Could improve.

[Gate Dancer]

Lots of 'pop and stop' speed in here, but I will go with the outside post of Miss Shanghai............Ward is having a nice meet, Elvis rides back and all the other speed is inside of her (obviously). The blinkers come off in a positive trainer move (33%) and dirt to turf also hits at 19%. She should get a clean break and either clear or potentially stalk.

Very interested to see how Split The Clouds runs here...........dam has already gotten one turf winner and curious bringing her down to GP from Tam after the allowance effort. A duplicate running style of her first race could be effective here. She is a full sister to High Altitude, who has had some success in So. Florida.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

I would give MymissJuliac a look..Has the speed that this turf course has been favoring, ran against similar last time out, returning to possible preferred surface and Coa stays on. Could improve.
:tro: :tro:
mine too..second off the layoff.jock/trainer combo very good..

[ateamstupid]

This should be very interesting.... Let's get the first variable out of the way...
3/4 inch of rain overnight... Breezy and Sunny for the rest of the week...
Lawn should be perfect by Thursday!

At Gulfstream? I don't think so..

[declansharbor]

Anyone think Blood Diamonds can win it off the bench?

The other horse that intrigues me at what will presumably be decent odds is Dances For Tips. This ones early footing will have her forwardly placed. If on the pace, one could only hope for her to run Kit Kat Caton off her feet and hold off the stalkers.

[3kings]

I'll take Split the Clouds. Ran a nice debut that fits with these. Last race was gunned for the lead and faded badly. Has a chance for improvement 2nd off the layoff and should be a big price.

[TheSpyder]

Not a race where one really sticks out, but, for me, the overriding consideration is pace where there are so many horses vieing for the lead. I'm looking for a horse that has something in their tank down the stretch and the only one there for me is #1 Blood Diamonds. Been working regularly for the return, gets a magor jockey improvement, trainer good at bring them back off the bench, and shows she can make a late move. Also, the 6 month layoff may have allowed the horse to develop further.

Spyder

[Bobby Fischer]

Stormy lake if I had to pick a winner here. Mcpeek and Robbins have had a pretty good thing going. She did fail the keeneland test... she isn't anywhere near a lock.

who said guessing along with owners/trainers/VETS would be easy :confused:

[GPK]

I think Girl Glitter gives a much better account of herself here at what is sure to be boxcar odds.

[ArlJim78]

its not a race where i see a standout and won't play, but if i have to name only one horse i'd say Miss Shangai is the closest one. she has the type of gas I look for in a turf sprint, I like that Elvis rides back with an equipment change. i'm thinking she leads after 4F, the only question is if she get used up too much from the outside.

[MaTH716]

I like Miss Shangai. Second off the layoff, equipment change for a high percentage trainer. Breaking from the outside I think she will get a clear path to the lead and go wire to wire.

[Danzig]

i like miss shangai, altho i don't like her post. if she breaks well, i think she could hold on for the win.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Keep coming back to Stormy Lake. So, the race is useless to me.

[pmacdaddy]

I will look at Kit Cat Katon at a price. Won last time cutting Turf Route / Sprint. That 74 Beyer is as good as anyone else has shown on grass.

[ateamstupid]

I like Miss Shangai. Second off the layoff, equipment change for a high percentage trainer. Breaking from the outside I think she will get a clear path to the lead and go wire to wire.

Just hope that Trujillo doesn't stiff her like Little Miss Julien.

I'm going five-wide in the pick four: 1,5,8,9,12 with 1, 8 and 12 as the keys. If the race is won on the front end, it'll be by Kit Cat Katon. The others will have to come from off the pace. Gun to my head I'd take the 1 or the 12.

[the_fat_man]

Just hope that Trujillo doesn't stiff her like Little Miss Julien.

She had a perfect setup her previous race and had the length of the stretch to go by one of the dueling speeds and didn't.

[asudevil]

Stormy Lake....McPeek

[ateamstupid]

She had a perfect setup her previous race and had the length of the stretch to go by one of the dueling speeds and didn't.

Go ahead and tell me why he choked her down suddenly in the last 1/16th. I never said she'd have won, but he cost her 3rd and I want to know why he abruptly pulled her up like that. There wasn't any traffic.

[the_fat_man]

Go ahead and tell me why he choked her down suddenly in the last 1/16th. I never said she'd have won, but he cost her 3rd and I want to know why he abruptly pulled her up like that. There wasn't any traffic.

I caught a single viewing of that race, and my focus was on the 5, who I needed for (at least) 2nd.

[Kasept]

Remember what we're trying to accomplish here... Not so much trying to find 'typical' race angles as much as trying to decipher what kind of horse, style, trip, etc. wins these turf sprints...

It looks like there is plenty of early lick in here... GIRL GLITTER is a 5f specialist that can be on pace in halves run <:45... KIT CAT CATON is one of the cutback candidates that Stan Gold looks to have been racing into shape, stretching out in anticipation of a return to one turn. Can get the half in :44 and change on best... Rebecca Maker's other horse REGAL BIRD, (she has BLOOD DIAMONDS in as well), and WW's MISS SHANGAI both get :45 half miles.

Given these early pace types, it sure seems like STORMY LAKE will get the trip she wants tucking in behind Kit Cat and Glitter early. Blood Diamonds, who may have a tiny class edge if ready off the break, and MYMISSJULIAC also figure to be in draft and pounce mode.

We'll dissect this afterwards too... Want to spend as much time figuring out what happened as we do anticipating the result.

[NTamm1215]

This race looks to go through Stormy Lake. However, there might be some ways to make money with her.

BLOOD DIAMONDS- The class drop is respectable but it seems like Becky Maker's other runner is the one to watch in here. Polytrack form is not always on par with turf and this gal needed a race to get going early in '08. Next time might be the right time.

JUDGE'S PRIDE- Empire bred pushed the pace going long last time in her first start since an early December run on the inner. She wired a field of NY bred MSW runners at the Spa in August '07 at a huge price, so speed going short has been her game in the past. The bug boy has the call today and he will undoubtedly push her hard from the gate, however, she looks to be much slower early than a number of runners in here.

CLASSIC LAKE- Plodder is in deep even with the pace expected to be hot. Orseno shows positive numbers with horses cutting back in distance, but thsi gal may end up in a different zip code after three furlongs. Tough to endorse going short.

DANCES FOR TIPS- Another who was unsuccessfully stretched out in her last two, but do note that her maiden win came sprinting on the weeds when she ran Laurel MSW ladies off their feet. Her speed has been dulled by the last two, so it's tough to imagine she can make an impact today.

KIT CAT CATON- Another from the stretched out sprinter brigade who's cutting back and this turnback worked once before as she broke her maiden when shortening up from a 1 1/16 effort over the Calder lawn. She ran into trouble in her first two efforts against winners and was then over her head last time out. Improvement should not come as a surprise.

TICKLE ME TICK- She still hasn't crossed under the wire first in 12 career starts and the turf seems to be a white flag in terms of her dirt ability. If you like her, demand a HUGE price.

GIRL GLITTER- Interesting daughter of Glitterman finally tried the weeds last time after being washed off during the summer at Calder. She has plenty of early zip and the trainer has done her no favors of late running her against males and then open sellers last time out. She's going 3rd off a 90+ day layoff, dropping in class, and might be able to outbreak her rivals to the inside.

STORMY LAKE- Dropped in for a tag to get her maiden win after she didn't stack up with MSW runners in Kentucky. Her debut came on the turf at Kentucky Downs and she chased the pace for a bit and then faltered. That form is occasionally tough to use as a gauge for actual ability because of the odd configuration. She seems to be on her game now, has no problem going short and starts for a barn that has been absolutely spectacular at the meet.

MYMISSJULIAC- Fawkes trainee goes 2nd off a layoff and exits a 3rd place effort against similar on the main where she broke slowly and was beaten to the early lead. She's posted two good workouts since that effort and now gets back to the surface over which she earned her only win. A stalk and pounce trip would make her very dangerous.

SPLIT THE CLOUDS- First try on turf for daughter of Mount McKinley. She broke her maiden at first asking on the turf at Tampa way back in late March and her first start off the long break was a tad disappointing. She was, however, very fresh and was given an overly aggressive ride. Now that some of the rust is gone she should be set for a better effort.

REGAL BIRD- Well-bred daughter of Grand Slam was pounded down to 5/2 against similar claimers on the main track and she was never involved. It's now back to the grass, over which she has 1 exacta finish in two tries. She wired the field in her maiden score but has little chance of getting the early edge here, that coupled with the downward spiral she's in makes her tough to back.

MISS SHANGAI- Ward is removing the blinkers from this gal as she has been a pop and stop maven over the last four months. The far outside post is always advantageous for a speed horse but there has to be considerable doubt about whether she can cross and clear. Connections will earn her plenty of support, so she'll be short in the value department.

My pick is STORMY LAKE, but KIT CAT CATON and GIRL GLITTER are good longshots for the exacta.

Good luck!

NT

[ateamstupid]

Bar shoes on front for Blood Diamonds. Like her a little less now.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Remember what we're trying to accomplish here... Not so much trying to find 'typical' race angles as much as trying to decipher what kind of horse, style, trip, etc. wins these turf sprints...

Given these early pace types, it sure seems like STORMY LAKE will get the trip she wants

I agree. Afterwards, if she doesn't win, then, we take the jock into an open field, and we ........(sorry, that's must be "Curious George Goes to the Races with Hitler.")

[ateamstupid]

I think Stormy Lake is gonna be underlaid. Her lone turf start was far from anything great, and she experienced a pretty big figure jump for her last win. Sophisticated Lass had a similar jump to run second that day, and she returned to be fifth in a similar spot yesterday. It's also Stormy Lake's first time against winners and she has all of one race that makes her competitive with these. Turf sprinting is probably her game and I wouldn't be shocked to see her win, but at 3-1 or so, I'll pass.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I think Stormy Lake is gonna be underlaid.....Turf sprinting is probably her game and I wouldn't be shocked to see her win, but at 3-1 or so, I'll pass.


Yep. I agree ,sir. Can't play with her(too low,) or against her. It's a useless race.

[Bogey]

I landed on Kit Cat Caton for the obvious reasons previously mentioned on this thread by others.

I've struggled with these turf sprints, but I've had a little success lately with cutback runners. Theses races are becoming more and more popular, so there's a necessity to find a solution. IMO, it makes it double tough when the races are run in NY, especially NY Breds.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

For one thing, the fact that J.V. gets back on a horse that totally bombed as a favorite(against some of these) is a big red light(for me) as far as playing this race goes. Unless I know all about the why in that, I can't begin to select a winner of this race. They are gunna consider it their business, and so I am surprised anyone bets a penny on the race(without knowing about that situation.) "Switching to the grass" just isn't enough for me.

[TitanSooner]

I'll play Mymissjuliac. Throw out her last race which was first out against winners where she broke a bit slow and her maiden breaker is contentious enough. Would like to see Coa sit right off the 7 & 12 (and maybe 13) and pounce down the lane.

good luck all

[ateamstupid]

Holy crap.

[GBBob]

wow..glad he is ok

[ateamstupid]

Anyone think Blood Diamonds can win it off the bench?

The other horse that intrigues me at what will presumably be decent odds is Dances For Tips. This ones early footing will have her forwardly placed. If on the pace, one could only hope for her to run Kit Kat Caton off her feet and hold off the stalkers.

Great call DH.

[TitanSooner]

Anyone think Blood Diamonds can win it off the bench?

The other horse that intrigues me at what will presumably be decent odds is Dances For Tips. This ones early footing will have her forwardly placed. If on the pace, one could only hope for her to run Kit Kat Caton off her feet and hold off the stalkers.
:tro: :tro: :tro:

[MaTH716]

Nice call Mike.

[declansharbor]

Thanks guys. If only I would've bet her.

...but she wasnt in for the full tag. :rolleyes:

[Bobby Fischer]

great call declans harbor
she sure prefers the short turf sprint!

Are all Landson Robbins horses leaving McPeek?

mcpeek won just about everything on turf this week other than the Robbins filly stormy lake 2 wednesday , the 3rd today

[Danzig]

great call declans harbor
she sure prefers the short turf sprint!

Are all Landson Robbins horses leaving McPeek?

mcpeek won just about everything on turf this week other than the Robbins filly stormy lake 2 wednesday , the 3rd today

from what i've read, it doesn't appear that he's moving all of them. according to one article, mr. robbins doesn't like the gulfstream preps for 3 yo's, and wants danger to society to prep in new york. that he is concerned about getting graded earnings, and didn't like the gap between the fla derby and the ky derby. so he sent the horse to dutrow.