Kasept
08-02-2006, 05:21 AM
We enter Week Two at the Spa under a blanket of heat the likes of which we don't see in these parts too, too often. The question came up yesterday on ATRAB whether Saratoga has ever cancelled due to excessive heat, and I don't believe there has ever been such a shelving...
Week One wrapped up Monday with a beautiful afternoon, a day we would have prefered to see Saturday. Personally, it was a good first week at the windows with a +$320 bankroll on just 8 wagers. Hopefully by next season, through the fast-moving miracles of technology, we'll have a way to communicate with readers on a minute by minute basis, as wagering opportunities and final plays are very different by post time than they are at "deadline"...
Outrageous overlays were EVERYWHERE at the Spa the first 6 days, and making last second decisions and changes to the selections is the difference between prodit and loss. Monday, Just in Fun was our second choice in the 1st race at 12-1. By post time, he was an insane 32-1. At that price, it was time to abandon exotic wagers and bet straight. In Friday's first, I was happy to play the exacta box with my first race picks, but got excited about Planets Aligned at 13-1 (ML 10-1) and keyed him in the tris over the 1-4-5-7. The result was $1's worth of the $720 trifecta. As previously discussed, had I realized there was a Superfecta being offered, I might have made the meet a guaranteed winner with half of the $8,400 return...
The point is, with so much money in the pools, horses go underbet, and you have to adjust your approach to take advantage of the overlays...
SELECTIONS -- Saratoga, Wednesday, August 2 ($57k Carryover)
1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 9f
1. #2 Suave Queen 8-5: So obvious that she likely gets beat
2. #5 Sunshine Johanne 5-1: Also takes a drop for Quick; Adds Mig
A. #4 Most Charming 8-1: SUF shipper for Gorham adds GoGo
B. #1e Lake entry 4-1: Have to figure Lake gets untracked soon
2nd: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T
1. #4 Fortissi More 20-1: More Than Ready colt gets grass stud Corny
2. #1 Graduating Class 6-1: Serpe's hot
A. #2e Romans entry 7-2: Like Lake, figure Romans due to break out
B. #7 Tobruk 8-1: My man Sciacca's red moved up with surface switch last
C. #9 Al Basha 5-1: Hard to leave off Penna playa
3rd: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f
1. #5 Ladina 10-1: Happy to grab 10-1 on Matz' gal ready to move forward
2. #2 Dina 7-2: J. Jerkens gets her back to prefered surface
A. #1 She's Indy Money 9-2: Missy from Mott has done little wrong
B. #6 Ex Caelis 2-1: DWL is looking good so far; Poised for nice meet
4th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T
1. #6 Bachelornumberone 7-2: "If I was a racehorse and you were a jockey..."
2. #7 Roscommon Express 2-1: Leo and the son-in-law
A. #10 General Congress 10-1: Lostritto gelding adds Coa
B. #8 Sugar Slam 3-1: Interesting Grand Slam import in hands of Dutrow
5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Superfecta)
1. #10 My Own Story 3-1: Less afraid to bet outside post on the inner
2. #2 Gospel Singer 6-1: Ignore MTH fiasco; Gomez rode her well at BEL
A. #5 Princess Langfuhr 9-2: Odd that Kent doesn't ride after good effort last
B. #6 Litethenight 7-2: Possible favorite back quick; Has reacted to good tries
LONGHOT ALERT/SUPER BOOSTER: #7 Fair Maiden (15-1) is very appealing
6th: MSW, 2yo, 5f
Brutal MSW in the middle of the '6' and to start the '4'...
1. #4 Elusive Value 4-1: Elusive Quality grey working quick
2. #8 Wollaston Bay 8-1: Sciacca's red has advantage of start but lousy post
A. #1e Schwartz entry 8-1: Ownership entry from man who likes to win here
B. #2 Quasicobra 5-1: Rail at 5f a plus: Leparoux-Biancone no negative either
LONGSHOT ALERT: #7 Straight Romance (12-1) from Tagg intriguing in inscrutable heat.. #6 Westwon (8-1) hard to exclude stirring Lukas as well!
7th: The Ashado, $70,000, F&M-3+, 9f
Good group in overnight stake named for a gal I never cared for..
1. #4 In the Gold 7-2: Prado? That's a twist.. Give Gazelle winner another try
2. #1 Yolanda B. Too 9-5: Figure classy W. Pointer ready before many owners
3. #2 Summerly 8-5: '05 Oaks winner finally back; Scratched for this
8th: NYB-Cab Calloway, $150,000, 3yo, 9f-IT
1. #2 Metro Meteor 3-1: Rice is on way to good meet; Corny rides her well
2. #6 Running Dog 5-2: J. Jerkens' red gelding rarely misses a good check
A. #7 Classic Impact 12-1: Generous tote on Mdn winner that gets Javier
B. #4 Oedipus O'Neal 5-1: 2nd Contessa candidate gets a bit of pace pressure
9th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (Superfecta race)
1. #3 Shuffling Madness 5-2: NY Derby runner-up from friends Gioia, Carroll
2. #2 Hunter's Tale 12-1: Sweet tote on solid 6yo from Leah with Johnny V
A. #1e Bond entry 8-1: Good pair of family-owned/bred Raffie's Majestys
B. #6 S. Cherry Legacy 10-1: Slick Lecesse brings one from FL; Adds Eibar
C. #5 Pay Attention 9-2
<$100 P6 Play:
4: 4
5: 2-10
6: 4-6-8
7: 1-4
8: 2-7
9: 2-3
1x2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96
Good luck..
Steve
Week One wrapped up Monday with a beautiful afternoon, a day we would have prefered to see Saturday. Personally, it was a good first week at the windows with a +$320 bankroll on just 8 wagers. Hopefully by next season, through the fast-moving miracles of technology, we'll have a way to communicate with readers on a minute by minute basis, as wagering opportunities and final plays are very different by post time than they are at "deadline"...
Outrageous overlays were EVERYWHERE at the Spa the first 6 days, and making last second decisions and changes to the selections is the difference between prodit and loss. Monday, Just in Fun was our second choice in the 1st race at 12-1. By post time, he was an insane 32-1. At that price, it was time to abandon exotic wagers and bet straight. In Friday's first, I was happy to play the exacta box with my first race picks, but got excited about Planets Aligned at 13-1 (ML 10-1) and keyed him in the tris over the 1-4-5-7. The result was $1's worth of the $720 trifecta. As previously discussed, had I realized there was a Superfecta being offered, I might have made the meet a guaranteed winner with half of the $8,400 return...
The point is, with so much money in the pools, horses go underbet, and you have to adjust your approach to take advantage of the overlays...
SELECTIONS -- Saratoga, Wednesday, August 2 ($57k Carryover)
1st: CLM, F&M-3+, 9f
1. #2 Suave Queen 8-5: So obvious that she likely gets beat
2. #5 Sunshine Johanne 5-1: Also takes a drop for Quick; Adds Mig
A. #4 Most Charming 8-1: SUF shipper for Gorham adds GoGo
B. #1e Lake entry 4-1: Have to figure Lake gets untracked soon
2nd: NYB-MSW, 2yo, 8.5f-T
1. #4 Fortissi More 20-1: More Than Ready colt gets grass stud Corny
2. #1 Graduating Class 6-1: Serpe's hot
A. #2e Romans entry 7-2: Like Lake, figure Romans due to break out
B. #7 Tobruk 8-1: My man Sciacca's red moved up with surface switch last
C. #9 Al Basha 5-1: Hard to leave off Penna playa
3rd: ALW/N2X, F&M-3+, 9f
1. #5 Ladina 10-1: Happy to grab 10-1 on Matz' gal ready to move forward
2. #2 Dina 7-2: J. Jerkens gets her back to prefered surface
A. #1 She's Indy Money 9-2: Missy from Mott has done little wrong
B. #6 Ex Caelis 2-1: DWL is looking good so far; Poised for nice meet
4th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 8.5f-T
1. #6 Bachelornumberone 7-2: "If I was a racehorse and you were a jockey..."
2. #7 Roscommon Express 2-1: Leo and the son-in-law
A. #10 General Congress 10-1: Lostritto gelding adds Coa
B. #8 Sugar Slam 3-1: Interesting Grand Slam import in hands of Dutrow
5th: MDN CLM, F&M-3+, 8.5f-IT (Superfecta)
1. #10 My Own Story 3-1: Less afraid to bet outside post on the inner
2. #2 Gospel Singer 6-1: Ignore MTH fiasco; Gomez rode her well at BEL
A. #5 Princess Langfuhr 9-2: Odd that Kent doesn't ride after good effort last
B. #6 Litethenight 7-2: Possible favorite back quick; Has reacted to good tries
LONGHOT ALERT/SUPER BOOSTER: #7 Fair Maiden (15-1) is very appealing
6th: MSW, 2yo, 5f
Brutal MSW in the middle of the '6' and to start the '4'...
1. #4 Elusive Value 4-1: Elusive Quality grey working quick
2. #8 Wollaston Bay 8-1: Sciacca's red has advantage of start but lousy post
A. #1e Schwartz entry 8-1: Ownership entry from man who likes to win here
B. #2 Quasicobra 5-1: Rail at 5f a plus: Leparoux-Biancone no negative either
LONGSHOT ALERT: #7 Straight Romance (12-1) from Tagg intriguing in inscrutable heat.. #6 Westwon (8-1) hard to exclude stirring Lukas as well!
7th: The Ashado, $70,000, F&M-3+, 9f
Good group in overnight stake named for a gal I never cared for..
1. #4 In the Gold 7-2: Prado? That's a twist.. Give Gazelle winner another try
2. #1 Yolanda B. Too 9-5: Figure classy W. Pointer ready before many owners
3. #2 Summerly 8-5: '05 Oaks winner finally back; Scratched for this
8th: NYB-Cab Calloway, $150,000, 3yo, 9f-IT
1. #2 Metro Meteor 3-1: Rice is on way to good meet; Corny rides her well
2. #6 Running Dog 5-2: J. Jerkens' red gelding rarely misses a good check
A. #7 Classic Impact 12-1: Generous tote on Mdn winner that gets Javier
B. #4 Oedipus O'Neal 5-1: 2nd Contessa candidate gets a bit of pace pressure
9th: NYB-OC/N2X, 3+, 9f (Superfecta race)
1. #3 Shuffling Madness 5-2: NY Derby runner-up from friends Gioia, Carroll
2. #2 Hunter's Tale 12-1: Sweet tote on solid 6yo from Leah with Johnny V
A. #1e Bond entry 8-1: Good pair of family-owned/bred Raffie's Majestys
B. #6 S. Cherry Legacy 10-1: Slick Lecesse brings one from FL; Adds Eibar
C. #5 Pay Attention 9-2
<$100 P6 Play:
4: 4
5: 2-10
6: 4-6-8
7: 1-4
8: 2-7
9: 2-3
1x2x3x2x2x2 = 48 x $2 = $96
Good luck..
Steve