4/5: AQU; SA; IL Derby; Ashland [Archive]

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Kasept

04-05-2008, 02:49 AM

As big, and as important a day of racing, as there is on the calendar... Off to Aqueduct early.. Enjoy the intense action that will help go a long way towards setting up the Kentucky Derby starting grid...

AQUEDUCT

6th: OC/N2X, 4+, 7f (P6, P3, DD)

Most Likely: #7 Lucky Island 2-1 WON
Best Value: #3 My Golden Opinion 8-1 2nd
Next Best: #1e Asmussen entry 3-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #9 SCR

$2 Exacta (7-3) Paid $23.20
$2 Trifecta (7-3-1) Paid $58.00

7th: 48th Bay Shore (Gr. II), 3yo, 7f ($400k All-Stakes P4, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Gattopardo 3-1: Tullock's LRL: invader fast, sharp, tough.. 2nd
Best Value: #7 Jockey Ridge 6-1: Tagg bay has misfired just once; Adds Edgar.. 3rd
Exotics Add: #6 SCR

8th: 96th Excelsior H. (Gr. III), 3+, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Wafi City 3-1: Anything near last takes this.. 6th
Best Value: #5 Temporary Saint 12-1: Bona fide Levine-Moss claim.. WON
Next Best: #2 Magna Graduate 9-2: Ignore blinker flop of defending champ.. 4th
Exotics Add: #6 Naughty New Yorker 6-1: Comfortable on the main, wet.. 5th

9th: 84th Wood Memorial (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (P3, DD, Super)

2. Texas Wildcatter (Coa/Pletcher) 5-1: Deserved Gotham win; Coa plus on forward-moving stalker..

3. Spurrier (Elliott/Pletcher) 15-1: Late nom steady developer; Class testee OK super filler..

1. Court Vision (Gomez/Mott) 6-1: 3rd Don't over-estimate Gomez factor; Must go now..

4. First Commandment (Luzzi/Martin, C.) 30-1: Connections taking swing on now colt; 9f a plus..

5. War Pass (Velasquez, C./Zito) 6-5: 2nd Eyes on champ off Tampa fiasco; Expect better but going against..

6. Roman Emperor (Rose/Klesaris) 15-1: Doffs goggles; Needs firm footing for best shot; Will like trip..

7. Giant Moon (Chavez/Schosberg) 12-1: 4th Bay hated Gotham slop, shut down early; Pace against him..

8. Tale of Ekati (Prado/Tagg) 9-2: WON Shows identical pattern as Nobiz last year; Logical inclusion..

1A. Inner Light (Lopez/Mott) 6-1: IEAH sacrifices nice colt as rabbit for Vision; CC will send..

9. Anak Nakal (Garcia/Zito) 20-1: Finds third venue this annum; Add blinks and needs form reversal..

SELECTIONS:

1. #2 Texas Wildcatter 8th
2. #8 Tale of Ekati WON
3. #5 War Pass 2nd
4. #6 Roman Emperor 7th

$2 Exacta (8-5) Paid $52.50

10th: 108th Carter H. (Gr. I), 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Spring at Last 5-2: Gomez poised turning back Donn winner.. 8th
Best Value: #5 Ryan's for Real 15-1: Dangerous on best with move to Capuano.. 7th
Next Best: #9 Bustin Stones 3-1: Will be underlay; Up against heavy pace pressure.. WON
Exotics Add: #2 King of the Roxy 8-1: Honest overachiever 2nd/break.. 6th

$1 P3 $603.50

<$50 All-Stakes P4:

7: 2-3-7-8
8: 1-2-5-9
9: 2-5-8
10: 6

4x4x3x1 = $48

11th: NYB-MSW, 3+, 6.5f (Super)

Most Likely: #9 Motor Patrol 5-2 WON
Best Value: #8 El Tamberito 6-1 2nd
Next Best: #3 Coop to the Hoop 7-2 3rd
Exotics Add: #6 Tribolet 4-1 6th

$2 Pick 3 (8-9-9) 3 Correct Paid $223.50
$2 Exacta (9-8) Paid $22.00
$2 Trifecta (9-8-3) Paid $66.00

<$200 P6 Play:

6: 1-3-7-9
7: 3-7
8: 5-9
9: 2-5-8
10: 6
11: 3-9

4x2x2x3x1x2 = 96 x $2 = $192

GULFSTREAM

8th: Pan American (Gr. II), 4+, 12f-T (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #1 Drilling for Oil 4-1: McPeek left him in FL for this.. 2nd
Best Value: #7 French Vintage 6-1: Now with Serpe; Needs pace target.. 4th
Next Best: #4 Fracas 5-2: Arrived too late in Munoz & Tagg adds blinks.. 7th
Exotics Add: #8 Precious Passion 6-1: Hartmann red was used strangely last.. WON

$2 Exacta (8-1) Paid $166.00

KEENELAND

9th: Ashland (Gr. I), 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Proud Spell 8-5: Jones miss has exuded class from start; Poly the lone issue.. 3rd
Best Value: #4 Bsharpsonata 5-1: Salzman bay proving tough and versatile.. 2nd
Next Best: #6 Country Star 9-5: Had better be ready for fight in return; Underlaid.. 5th
Super Add: #2 Little Belle 6-1: KMc's Darley homebred by AP Indy better with each run.. WON

$2 Exacta (2-4) Paid $177.40
$2 Trifecta (2-4-5) Paid $454.00

HAWTHORNE

7th: Illinois Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 9f (P4, Super)

Most Likely: #5 Denis of Cork 2-1: Yanked about by 'advisors', perfect colt tuning for Kentucky.. 5th
Next Best: #4 Atoned 4-1: Pletcher bringing sophs back slowly; Main threat.. 4th
Best Value: #7 Real Appeal 8-1: Amoss upset KEE opener stake Friday; A 'now' horse.. 7th
Exotics Add: #6 Golden Spikes 5-1: Alternating efforts and can nurse front end.. 2nd

OAKLAWN

10th: 62nd Oaklawn H. (Gr. II), 4+, 9f (

Most Likely: #5 Circular Quay 3-1: Fired HOL bullet readying for this.. 4th
Best Value: #7 Silver Lord 12-1: Borel climbs on after Lanerie couldn't stay aboard.. 7th
Next Best: #4 Heatseeker 2-1: Poly-turfer looks underlaid on quirky Arky strip.. 2nd
Exotics Add: #2 Tiago 7-2: Gets pace to chase; Last saw fast dirt in '07 Belmont.. WON

SANTA ANITA

4th: 26th Potrero Grande (Gr. II), 4+, 6.5f (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #4 Surf Cat 2-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 El Roblar 4-1 3rd
Next Best #5 Greg's Gold 7-2 WON

$2 Exacta (5-4) Paid $17.20
$2 Trifecta (5-4-1) Paid $60.40

5th: CLM, 4+, 6.5f-DHT (P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #3 Forest Danz 6-1 2nd
Best Value: #8 Saxophone 12-1 11th
Next Best: #4 Trail Mix 12-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #12 Chadlington 8-1 9th

6th: 71st Santa Anita Derby (Gr. I), 3yo, 9f (P6, P3, DD, Super)

1. Yankee Bravo (Solis/Gallagher) 4-1: 4th OK 3rd in LA, adds blinks, saves ground in acid test; Include in exotics..

2. Signature Move (Baze M/Guillot) 30-1: Bad 10th in LA, working well for return; Needs speed boost..

3. Coast Guard (Talamo/Hofmans) 20-1: 3rd Hated Ess Eff going from first jump; Looks fit, sharp back home..

4. Bob Black Jack (Migliore/Kasparoff) 6-1: 2nd Trainer audibled staying home; Too much pace pressure here though..

5. Colonel John (Nakatani/Harty) 2-1: WON Defacto West Coast soph leader gets tune up for Lu'ville; Tactical..

6. On the Virg (Baze T/Pletcher) 15-1: Pletcher Pulpit red on upswing and hits board with forward progress..

7. Shore Do (Sutherland/Koriner) 20-1: Looked like something as juvy; Has not progressed a step..

8. El Gato Malo (Flores/Dollase C) 5-2: Adeptly handled by Dollase thus far; Backed up a bit in 9f Sham..

9. Polonius (Espinoza/Pender) 10-1: Sprint-bred bay was super acing mile turf stake last; Exotics bottom feeder?

10. Meetingwithdestiny (Rosario/O'Neill) 30-1: O'Neill gelding diploma-ed 6th career start; Appears overmatched..

11. Rosso Corsa (Quinonez/Vienna) 50-1: Recent Cal-bred MCLM winner here for no good apparent reason..

SELECTIONS:

1. #5 Colonel John WON
2. #8 El Gato Malo 5th
3. #3 Coast Guard 3rd
4. #6 On the Virg 6th

7th: 49th Arcadia (Gr. II), 4+, 1m-T (P3, DD)

Most Likely: #3 Daytona 7-5 WON
Best Value: #5 Golden Balls 9-2 3rd
Next Best: #4 Artiste Royale 3-1 4th

8th: MSW, 3yo, 6f (P4, P3, DD, Super)

Most Likely: #9 Premium Quality 4-1 2nd
Best Value: #1 Holy Humor 30-1 6th
Next Best: #11 Tangled Tango 3-1 WON
Exotics Add: #5 El Legado 4-1 5th

$2 Exacta (11-9) Paid $51.00

9th: 28th Providencia (Gr. II), 3yo-F, 1m-T (P3, DD, Super)

Best Value: #5 THEODORA 8-1 6th
Most Likely: #4 Missit 5-1 WON
Next Best: #8 Gorgeous Goose 7-2 4th
Exotics Add: #10 Starry Pursuit 6-1 8th

10th: ALW/N$Y, 4+, 6.5f (DD, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Albertus Maximus 5-2 3rd
Best Value: #3 Paul's Hope 5-1 2nd
Next Best: #8 Euroglide 7-2 5th

11th: OC/N1X, F&M-4+, 6.5f-DHT (Super High 5)

Most Likely: #11 Gentle Gale 7-2 2nd
Best Value: #3 Wonderous Event 12-1 9th
Next Best: #9 Ransom Captive 6-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #10 Lemon Chiffon 5-1 4th
Hi 5 Play: #7 Tutta Bella 6-1 WON

$2 Exacta (7-11) Paid $39.80
$1 Trifecta (7-11-9) Paid $192.40

<$300 P6 Play:

6: 5-8
7: 3-4-5
8: 1-9
9: 4-5
10: 6
11: 3-9-10-11

2x3x2x2x1x4 = 96 x $2 = $192

SAM HOUSTON

7th: Connally Turf H. (Gr. II), 9f-T (P3, Super)

Most Likely: #6 Going Ballistic 7-2
Best Value: #3 Scrappy Roo 8-1 WON
Next Best: #4 Student Council 3-1

$2 Exacta (3-6) Paid $72.00

Good luck!
Steve

bulllea

04-05-2008, 06:15 AM

Thanks for the picks and have a great day!!

Bulllea

kenny p

04-05-2008, 06:55 AM

Steve, Are you going to Big A today? KP

Kasept

04-05-2008, 07:59 AM

Steve, Are you going to Big A today? KP
Kenny

On our way. Have to stop in Great Neck first. See you there...

Storm Cadet

04-05-2008, 08:37 AM

Steve

Hope to see ya there.

Great day ahead...horses and hoops...nothing better!! :D

Ron

ontheoutside

04-05-2008, 10:22 AM

i have a question steve
without using your own picks
who do u think is the one who consistently gives out winners here?ill tell you why
im going into hopsital for double kneereplacement
today i put in 5000 into my o t b account
when i get out in 5 days
ill be housebound for about 6 to 9 weeks
now i dont bet alot but i do like action
may 40 dollars a race
is there someone that posts here that you have real confidence in that i could use there top pick and see where i go for 9 weeks?
p s
steve dont think im tossing you
i have a plan to use your value play and who i get out of the pickers here and bet exactas in every race
not much just a 5 dollar box
but by no means im tossing you because im not
and if you think your the one i should follow with my big plays[40 a race] then by all means i will thanks steve
would love to get input about this i got 1 week to get finalized until they start cutting eveywhere on my body

TheSpyder

04-05-2008, 10:34 AM

You picked a great time for knee replacement because Hooves picks at Keeneland are uncanny. Easily the best here. Bigs at Tampa would be second.

Spyderi have a question steve
without using your own picks
who do u think is the one who consistently gives out winners here?ill tell you why
im going into hopsital for double kneereplacement
today i put in 5000 into my o t b account
when i get out in 5 days
ill be housebound for about 6 to 9 weeks
now i dont bet alot but i do like action
may 40 dollars a race
is there someone that posts here that you have real confidence in that i could use there top pick and see where i go for 9 weeks?
p s
steve dont think im tossing you
i have a plan to use your value play and who i get out of the pickers here and bet exactas in every race
not much just a 5 dollar box
but by no means im tossing you because im not
and if you think your the one i should follow with my big plays[40 a race] then by all means i will thanks steve
would love to get input about this i got 1 week to get finalized until they start cutting eveywhere on my body

AeWingnut

04-05-2008, 10:53 AM

swedejxn

04-05-2008, 11:02 AM

I agree with Spyder... some of these 'cappers are fantastic with certain tracks... Bigs and Hooves are killers at those tracks... others are great on different surfaces... Poly and I do NOT get along at all... I'm interested in what Steve has to throw out at this Question... You can always do as I do...
Do your homework and when a decent horse, at a decent price, shows up on one of these Guru's "play" lists... lay some money out...

and remember... if'n you gonna have all this time on your hands (plenty of time to 'cap) and you feel good about a play or a whole card... Post 'em on the site and get your input that way. Someone always has a comment or two... this way we all win....

Hope you heal up fast

Willie

Benny Leger

04-05-2008, 11:07 AM

You picked a great time for knee replacement because Hooves picks at Keeneland are uncanny. Easily the best here. Bigs at Tampa would be second.

Spyder

Hooves is as tough as they come at a track that's difficult to cap (KEE)...But I'll take BigsMC and TBD for my $ BTW...nice job yesterday on the late PK4 at KEE Hooves...some unbelieveable picks !!!

swedejxn

04-05-2008, 11:12 AM

AQ pick 6

1-3-7
3-5
2-3-4-9
2-5-6
1-6-8
8

SA pick 6

3-5-8
4-7
3-11
2-7
4-5-6
3-10-11

Scav

04-05-2008, 11:18 AM

In the Oaklawn Handicap, I get the feeling that Buzzard's Bay will run well. He likes this track and should be decent odds, get a great post for Oaklawn also.

Scav

04-05-2008, 11:20 AM

and you may want to do a search on who jcs11204 (or something like) likes. The guy is poison. Go against whoever he likes.

with me you have a 50/50 chance with jcs.. none. ;)

If you won at a 50% clip (a 50/50 chance), you would be a gachillionaire.

AeWingnut

04-05-2008, 12:17 PM

not investing too much today. Just making picks for the sake of making picks :(

Aqu Race 7 The Bay Shore (note: #6 scr - may help #5)

#4 Laysh Laysh Laysh 8-1
#3 Gattopardo 3-1
#5 Go Go Shoot 4-1
#7 Jockey Ridge 6-1

the bet $1 tri 4 w/ 3,5,7 and 4,5 w/ 3,4,5 w/ 3,4,5,7 $14 investment

Aqu Race 8 The Excelsior

#5 Temporary Saint 12-1
#1 Malibu Moonshine 15-1
#3 Night Lite 3-1
#4 Angliana 6-1

10 cent superfecta 1,3,4,5 box $2.40 investment

Aqu Race 9 The Wood Memorial (note: I liked Court Vision until pg1985 picked him)

#2 Texas Wildcatter 5-1
#6 Roman Emporer 15-1
#8 Tale of Ekati 9/2
#3 Spurrier 15-1

what no War Pass ? They are already working on excuse #2

the bet $6 win on 2 exacta All with 2 and 3,6,8, w/ 3,6,8 w/2. $20 invested

Aqu Race 10 Carter H

#6 Spring At Last 5/2
#8 Premium Wine 10-1
#9 Bustin Stones 3-1
#10 Exexcutive Fleet 10-1

$1 exacta 9, 10 w/ 6,8,9,10 10 cent super 9,10 w/6,8 w/6,8,9,10 w/ 1,2,6,8,9,10 $8.40 investment

and my $1 pick 4 bet

Leg 1: 4,5
Leg 2: 5
Leg 3: 2,6
Leg 4: 9

$4 investment

AeWingnut

04-05-2008, 12:50 PM

If you won at a 50% clip (a 50/50 chance), you would be a gachillionaire.

ok, make it a 10% chance
:o

declansharbor

04-05-2008, 01:21 PM

Daytona on the cutback to a mile is an absolute single for me in pick 3's.

SA for 7$
5- 3,4,9
6- 1,5,6
7- 3

SA for 1$
5- 1,4,8,12
6- 1,3,5,6
7- 3

AQU for 3$
8- 2,9
9- 2,6,8
10- 6

WP on Salinja (8th at KEE), On the Virg (6th at SA), and Roman Emporer (9th at AQU).

Best of luck to those playing today!! Will have a week long hiatus if none of these hit.... Go Daytona!!!

Bogey

04-05-2008, 02:08 PM

Scav

04-05-2008, 02:29 PM

Declan, you've been on Daytona ever since he started his streak. Nice job. Good Luck today

Why aren't you at Hawthorne?

Bogey

04-05-2008, 02:33 PM

Why aren't you at Hawthorne?Tom, trust me, I'm kicking himself big time. Beautiful day and Denis of Cork. Knock 'em dead.

Scav

04-05-2008, 02:35 PM

Tom, trust me, I'm kicking himself big time. Beautiful day and Denis of Cork. Knock 'em dead.

It is beautiful outside, and I am stuck inside doing all these BS projects....

track looks fair so far, although the rail looks a tad bid tight at Hawthorne, nothing surprising though.

Bogey

04-05-2008, 02:37 PM

It is beautiful outside, and I am stuck inside doing all these BS projects....

track looks fair so far, although the rail looks a tad bid tight at Hawthorne, nothing surprising though.I agree with the track condition, I've been to the last 3 runnings and it was freezing. Go Figure

2Hot4TV

04-05-2008, 02:39 PM

In the Oaklawn Handicap, I get the feeling that Buzzard's Bay will run well. He likes this track and should be decent odds, get a great post for Oaklawn also.
Local clocker says he will run back to his old graded stakes winning form. He said Buzzard Bay wants dirt.

letswastemoney

04-05-2008, 02:42 PM

Turf to SA synthetic angle strikes again. 20-1 shot wins the 2nd race. I put $2 to win on him lol

skippy3481

04-05-2008, 02:42 PM

AQ pick 4
1-3-5-7
2-3-9
2-5-8
6-9

letswastemoney

04-05-2008, 02:58 PM

Does anyone else think that the pace setup of the Bayshore completely works in Laysh Laysh Laysh's favor?? I like him here.

Coach Pants

04-05-2008, 03:03 PM

AQU Race 7
Pick 4
3,5,7
3,5,9
2,5,8
1,8,9
$81

Tough card.

letswastemoney

04-05-2008, 03:12 PM

Does anyone else think that the pace setup of the Bayshore completely works in Laysh Laysh Laysh's favor?? I like him here. damn i suck

Coach Pants

04-05-2008, 03:17 PM

Super horse from a Super trainer on Super Saturday.

Super.

Pick 3 Race 8
3,5,9
2,8
1,8,9
$4 = $72

AeWingnut

04-05-2008, 03:54 PM

damn i suck

so do I . Laysh Laysh Lameshit does too

the winner was logical
guess that's why he was 3/2 and why I didn't include him
:mad:

tiggerv

04-05-2008, 04:00 PM

Wood

Texas Wildcatter - big win bet

Never ran at all...moving on

SA P6
3,5,8
3
1,3,9,10,11
4,8,10
8
10,11

$180

declansharbor

04-05-2008, 04:31 PM

Salinja's score in the 8th at KEE allows me to give even more back into the p3 pools. Going against El Gato Malo, again...

SA-1$
6- 1,3,5,6
7- 3
8- 5,6,9,11
2$
6- 1,5,6
7- 3
8- 1,8,9

best of luck to those playing today!!

Coach Pants

04-05-2008, 04:58 PM

Super horse from a Super trainer on Super Saturday.

Super.

Pick 3 Race 8
3,5,9
2,8
1,8,9
$4 = $72 $1,207.00 x 2 = $2,414.00
:cool:

declansharbor

04-05-2008, 05:02 PM

Thats how you do's it, Coach..That's how you do's it....Great cappin...

Am hedging yet another p3, because with Col. john winning, it looks like chalk fest..Playing this one for 4$....
7- 3
8- 5,9,11
9- 3,4,5

tiggerv

04-05-2008, 05:04 PM

Nice job coach

Coach Pants

04-05-2008, 05:14 PM

Thanks guys!

I was lucky Ekati stumbled to the finish line first.

hoovesupsideyourhead

04-05-2008, 06:53 PM

:cool:
:D :D :eek:

way to go coach

AeWingnut

04-05-2008, 07:31 PM

Thanks guys!

I was lucky Ekati stumbled to the finish line first.

good call

nice hit etc

hoovesupsideyourhead

04-05-2008, 08:06 PM

way to go steve..nice job today.......

Kasept

04-06-2008, 05:39 AM

way to go steve..nice job today.......
Thx Matt-O.. It was a terrific afternoon out at AQU. Had a really nice day...

jms62

04-06-2008, 07:24 AM

Than I suppose you added Bustin Stones to your personal P4.. If so nice score! What are your thoughts on the lack of Superfecta in the Wood ?

swedejxn

04-06-2008, 07:43 AM

great job coach

Coach Pants

04-06-2008, 07:46 AM

Thanks swede.

Congrats Steve-O! You had a bang-up day!!

Kasept

04-06-2008, 08:19 AM

Thanks swede.

Congrats Steve-O! You had a bang-up day!!
Pants..

Thanks! Saw your juicy score-out too... Well done. (B H Evar!)

Kasept

04-06-2008, 08:29 AM

Than I suppose you added Bustin Stones to your personal P4.. If so nice score! What are your thoughts on the lack of Superfecta in the Wood ?
JMS,

Wrote the other day about the nonsensical Superfecta rules that NYRA is saddled with. Why it's so hard for the legislation to change/ammend them is beyond me. Crist screams about this all the time. It's silly... and yesterday's card showed why with full, competitive fields and large mutuels. Can't imagine what more super offerings would add to the handle.

Didn't get the P4 bet in! Key to day for me was Temporary Saint whom I devoured with a win bet and wheeled in exactas. Had several triples on the day as well including the bookend straight triples to start and finish the P6 races (which were bets I wouldn't have made had the girlfriend not been in tow) and the Bay Shore (though I really wanted it with Gattopardo on top).

Hope everyone did well yesterday.. Thought I was able to point in some good directions.

jms62

04-06-2008, 01:00 PM

Great Score on one of the Top 5 racing days of the year in my opinion... I did very well yesterday having a win bet on Recapturetheglory. I also hit Supers for a buck each on the Illinois and Santa Anita.. Thought the Illinois would pay more having a 33 dollar winner and the favorite running out... But with 7 horses I'm sure there was a lot of dime players who bought the race by boxing 6 or even 7 horses. I may be in the minority but I think the dime players are really eating into the payouts. I know it is a lot of dead money but people can get a huge position at a fraction of the cost, a position they would never even consider if they had to pay 10x more.