3/19: AQU Selections ($236k C/O)

[Kasept]

Quarter-mill pot to start Aqueduct Carry Wednesday should swell to over 7 figures. Opportunity to review card started on traditionally dark Palm Sunday, though extra time has hardly helped on virtually impossible sequence that is made more difficult with the anticipation of inclement weather. The Ozone Park forecast:

Today: A steady rain this morning. Showers continuing this afternoon. High near 55F. Winds SSE at 15 to 25 mph. 1 to 2 inches of rain expected. Winds could occasionally gust over 40 mph.

Big money ticket will likely be required to bring down this sextet, but let's try to wade through the events...


AQUEDUCT


4th: CLM, 4+, 6f (P6, P3)

Tough way to start skien with cheapest tag level runners.. Several wheel back quick off good efforts which is actually a frequent play against with $5-10k claimers..

Most Likely: #1a Kong's Revenge 3-1: Either appealling on best (SCR #1).. 3rd
Best Value: #5 Remorse 6-1: Is at least consistant.. 4th
Next Best: #6 Explosive Count 2-1: Required to use; 10yo back quick.. WON
Exotics Add: #10 My Apology 5-1: Arroyo going well; Got freshener.. 10th


5th: CLM, 3yo-F, 1m-70y (P3, G/S, Super)

Straightforward two-turner for quarter fillies which drew field of N2L runners that have not shown any quality other than earning diplomas..

Most Likely: #6 E. Judith 6-1: Toss last; Has some speed.. 3rd
Best Value: #3 Naima 12-1: Bush miss had it tough in Jan. return.. 7th
Next Best: #1 Charming Mandate 3-1: A. Dutrow first off claim.. 6th
Exotics Add: #9 Chanced 7-2: Scored MDN-breaker with drop last.. 2nd


6th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 1m-70y (P4, DD, Super)

State-bred special weights with variety of knocks and question marks.. Bush's Ambidaxtrous as viable a single as any on card..

Most Likely: #4 Ambidaxtrous 3-1: Bush tabs Pino for in/out red.. 4th
Best Value: #6 Sunset Heights 4-1: Albertrani-Dominguez? 5 of 10.. 2nd
Next Best: #3 Gullible Gal 2-1: Distant 2nd last to stake runner today.. WON
Exotics Add: 7 Maria's Muse 5-1: Schosberg miss made lead last out.. 5th


7th: S/HCP, 4+, 8.5f (P3)

Excellent Starter event with well-matched bunch; Cant fault those taking swing with Contessa pair as single..

Most Likely: #2 Mithaal 2-1: Another option for single; SCR #2b.. 8th
Best Value: #1a Fit Faze 10-1: #1 Wood Winner SCR loves wet; Flies late.. 3rd
Next Best: #4 Untopable 9-2: 2nd off break and return was solid.. 2nd
Exotics Add: #7 SCR)


8th: The Andover Way, 3yo-F, 1m-70 (DD)

Doubt 2-1 ML fave from Carlos Martin gets through a half in :48.2 today.. Contessa-Cassidy number Sweet Vendetta improving steadily and ran best race yet in stake last: Looms play and as single for multis..

Most Likely: #4 Sweet Vendetta 5-2: Has come alive with blinks.. WON
Best Value: #6 Blew Me Away 6-1: Scored in slop; Note '1st trainer' #'s.. 4th
Next Best: #2 Serious Vow 2-1: No easy lead today; Playing against.. 3rd
Exotics Add: #5 Violent Behavior 15-1: 3 straight W's; Has upside, value.. 6th


9th: NYB-MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (Super)

Tough way to finish card with non-descript group of Empire gals.. Will stick with 2 obvious plays for '6' andspread wider in '4'..

Most Likely: #10 Sweet Slam 6-1 5th
Best Value: #7 Vladimira 6-1 3rd
Next Best: #8 Count This Senora 9-2 WON
Exotics Add: #4 Shirley Law 20-1 7th


<$300/<$150 P6 Plays:

4: 1-5-6-10
5: 1-2-3-4-6-9
6: 4 (3-6)
7: 2
8: 4
9: 7-10

4x6x3x1x1x2 = 144 x $2 = $288
4x6x1x1x1x2 = 48 x $2 = $96


P4 Play:

6: 3-4-6-7
7: 1-2-4-9
8: 4
9: 4-7-8-10

4x4x1x4 = $64


Good luck!
Steve

[Bogey]

Aqueduct

R4

#6 Explosive Count - Old guy loves the mud.
#1 Jacobson entry
#5 Remorse
#9 Statesman
#10 My Apology

R5

#2 Desert Scent
#6 E. Judith
#7 Mesa Girl
#9 Changed

R6

#4 Ambidaxtrous
#7 Maria's Muse
#3 Gullible Gal
#9 Narragansett Beach

R7

#7 Phil the Brit - According to his recent pattern, he's ready to fire a good one.
#2 Contessa Entry
#5 Bailero (Arg)

R8

#4 Sweet Vendetta
#6 Blew Me Away

R9

#2 Evaluator

PK6 - 1 5 6 9 10 / 2 6 7 9 / 4 7 / 2 5 7 / 4 / 2 = $240

Good Racing Luck

[docicu3]

Any chance the jocks refuse to compete today due to the weather. It has not taken much to "stay home from school" for these folks the last year or so and frankly the "gusts of wind to 40 MPH" seems to threaten the riders more than a rising water level on the inner.

Having said that I can't see a sealed inner at Aqu playing to anything other than "Inside Early Speed" today ,if they run, which all of a sudden strikes me as a great name for a NY Bred who debuts in the winter at Aqu. Probably time to play the name game once again on the board one day soon.

Perhaps the Cobler Gobbler who's entry in the 9th ,Weekwee seems live to me, may one day trot out a MSW DT stable winner named "IES" just for weather racing days like this one.


.......of course now one of our sages here will come up with a past horse already named IES and this was all a waste of a coffee break!!

GL to those who put the Dead Presidents on the line today.........

[tdtony]

steve in the 7th phil the brit is the 7 horse
in the 9th sweet slam is the 10 horse

[Kasept]

4TH
1 (poe) Raceland Early
11 Bazooka Bob Early

7TH
1 (poe) Wood Winner Early
2B Jacks Express Early
7 Phil the Brit Early

8TH
3 City by Sea Early

9TH
2 Evaluator Early
3 Weekwee Early
5 Lagniappe Early

[ArlJim78]

is the track going to be a mess today? if so i think i'm sitting this one out and stick to TB.

[zippyneedsawin]

is the track going to be a mess today? if so i think i'm sitting this one out and stick to TB.

it's listed as sloppy, so I'd say yes.

[ArlJim78]

it's listed as sloppy, so I'd say yes.
thanks

[Kasept]

steve in the 7th phil the brit is the 7 horse
in the 9th sweet slam is the 10 horse
Thx Tony! Took care of it...

[Kasept]

Eddie Barker told Dave Grenig it was his intention, had Explosive Count won today, to retire him as a Half-Millionaire. We'll see...

That was scary in the shadow of the wire as it looked like he took a funny step.

[Mike]

Too bad for the scratch of City by the Sea in the 8th, as it will most likely pull down the odds of longshot Violent Behavior, whom I liked to begin with, especially if wet