Kasept
03-08-2008, 04:40 AM
One of American racing's best regional days is on tap this aft at NoLa, with perhaps the best card assembled anywhere yet this year. The Louisiana Derby has a wonderful heritage, dating back to 1920 when it was run at old Jefferson Park, and has produced a number of local legends including Black Gold (1924), Taylor's Special (1984), Risen Star (1988) and Petionville (1995). Funny Cide forced himself into serious Rose Run consideration with a strong showing in the LA Derby in 2003, and Grindstone won this race on his road to Louisville in 1996.
It should be a fabulous afternoon with many stars or emerging runners on a stakes-laden undercard and culminating with Pyro's attempt to continue his campaign towards Derby 134.
FAIR GROUNDS
5th: 57th Duncan Kenner, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, Super)
MOST LIKELY: #3 EUROEARS 2-1: Calhoun red perfect in 5; Needs best..WON
Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #6 Semaphore Man 7-2: Von Hemel 6yo never misfires.. 2nd
Exotics Add: #2 Noonmark 3-1: Fired big at GP, got rest.. 3rd
6th: 83rd New Orleans H., 4+, 9f (P4, P3, Super)
BEST VALUE: #5 BRASS HAT 9-2: Should love long stretch that mirrors CD.. 4th
MOST LIKELY: #3 Grasshopper 2-1: Farish-Howard bulldog targeted this.. 2nd
Next Best: #2 Silver Lord 5-1: Can take them long way up front.. DNF
Exotics Add: #7 Magna Graduate 5-1: Todd returns to blinkers (2/07) 2nd off break.. 5th
7th: 16th Mervyn Munoz Jr. H., 4+, 9f-T (P6, P3, Super)
MOST LIKELY: #10 Daytona 3-1: Tough to argue against Hendricks' scrappy red.. 3rd
BEST VALUE: #4 Jazz Quest 10-1 Has been different horse since Xmas eve.. 5th
Next Best: #8 Proudinsky 7-2: Frankel expecting big effort from 5yo.. WON
Exotics Add: #2 Yate's Black Cat 15-1: Saves ground under Kent; Exotics booster.. 8th
8th: 42nd FG Oaks, 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, P3)
MOST LIKELY: #1 Indian Blessing 3-5: Hard for rival to beat her here.. 2nd
Next Best: #2 Proud Spell 6-5: Gets no help from supporting cast today.. WON
Best Value: #3 Acacia 10-1 3rd
9th: 95th Louisiana Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, Super)
1. Stevil (Castro/Zito) 15-1: Zito grey won at first asking and has met toughies since; Stalker-closer type not worst exotics stab in group as long FG stretch will suit..
2. My Pal Charlie (Leparoux/Stall) 20-1: Interesting proposition from Al Stall with Indian Charlie bay who may be getting good now; Last was sharp, and fact he gets first jump on J Be K gives shot at board hit; Using.. 2nd
3. Pyro (Bridgmohan/Asmussen) 7-5: 5/2-2-1 career mark with 3 beats only at hands of War Pass says it all; Though anxious to be fully convinced, am prepared to side with those that believe Winchell's Pulpit homebred is 100% bona fide under any scenario; Imposing here.. WON
4. J Be K (Desormeaux/Asmussen) 12-1: From the owner who brought you Fountain of Youth runners Z Humor (8 days rest) and Halo Najib (13 days) comes this immensely talented Silver Deputy colt fresh from a 6f win off a 6 month break; Will lead turning for home, and will need to be Curlinesque to win from that point..
5. Unbridled Vicar (Lanerie/Geier) 20-1: Hard trying Vicar gelding never worse than 4th (Risen Star) in 7 career efforts, and looks like the type that needs two tries at each level to move forward; Tafel (Street Sense) homebred was flattered by Denis of Cork's Southwest, and is fully capable of another Suoperfecta finish here..
6. Tale of Ekati (Prado/Tagg) 7-2: Futurity winner from Tagg makes anticipated 3yo debut, and given expectation of just 2 pre-Derby tries, expect Barclay to have him close to 100%; Fipke homebred may not love 10f at CD come May, but this oval and trip right up his alley; Speed to attend pace and kick to compete late; Most likely upsetter..
7. Blackberry Road (Albarado/Carroll) 10-1: Hard luck Dogwood colt picks up Albarado after series of tough trip beats under Borel; Trainer Carroll (Denis of Cork) with embarassment of springtime riches as this Gone West dark bay looks ready to break through at any time; Many rooting for.. 4th
8. Yankee Bravo (Solis/Gallagher) 4-1: Undefeated Yankee Gentleman colt cost $17k at F-T/KY July '06, and debuted nicely with rally in budget MDN event at cut-rate UK oval; US exploits under Paddy perfect, but have doubts about ability on dirt strip where speed is a necessity; Underlay.. 3rd
9. Majestic Warrior (Gomez/Mott) 9-2: Regally-bred Steinbrenner bay not only makes anticipated return here, but son of Dream Supreme also asked to 2-turn route for first time; Has earnings from rich Hopeful win in 2nd career start at Spa, so doubt Mott is asking for best first back; Will watch one..
SELECTIONS:
1. #3 Pyro 7-5 WON
2. #6 Tale of Ekati 7-2 6th
3. #5 Unbridled Vicar 20-1 9th
4. #2 My Pal Charlie 20-1 2nd
.50 P5 Play:
5: 2-3-6-(7 SCR)
6: 2-3-5
7: 2-4-7-8-10
8: 1-2
9: 3
3x3x5x2x1 = 90/2 = $45
P4 Play:
6: All
7: All
8: 1
9: 3
6x10x1x1 = $60
10th: 22nd Bienville, F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (P3, Super)
MOST LIKELY: #7 Jazzy 4-1: Working great for return; Back with GoGo.. 2nd
BEST VALUE: #11 Tres Dream 10-1: Bred for lawn and dangerous.. 4th
Next Best: #6 Smitty's Sunshine 5-1: Defending champ aced prep for this.. 5th
Exotics Add: #3 Bewitching Miss 15-1: In career best form; Will be boxcars.. 6th
11th: OC/N1x, 4+, 1m (DD, Super)
MOST LIKELY: #8 Le Dauphin 3-1 4th
BEST VALUE: #5 King of Speed 9-2 8th
Next Best: #6 Sonoma Cat 4-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #1 A P Dreamer 6-1 6th
12th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-40y (Super)
Best Value: #11 Evade 6-1 3rd
Most Likely: #3 Proud Kentuckian 9-2 WON
Next Best: #6 Fort Apache 3-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #8 Square Deal 4-1 7th
P6 Play:
7: 4-7-8-10
8: 1 `
9: 3
10: 3-6-7-11
11: 5-8
12: 3-6-11
4x1x1x4x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192
<$50 P4 Play:
9: 3
10: 1-3-6-10-11
11: 5-6-8
12: 3-6-11
1x5x3x3 = $45
Good luck!
Steve
It should be a fabulous afternoon with many stars or emerging runners on a stakes-laden undercard and culminating with Pyro's attempt to continue his campaign towards Derby 134.
FAIR GROUNDS
5th: 57th Duncan Kenner, 3+, 6f (P5, P3, Super)
MOST LIKELY: #3 EUROEARS 2-1: Calhoun red perfect in 5; Needs best..WON
Best Value: #7 SCR
Next Best: #6 Semaphore Man 7-2: Von Hemel 6yo never misfires.. 2nd
Exotics Add: #2 Noonmark 3-1: Fired big at GP, got rest.. 3rd
6th: 83rd New Orleans H., 4+, 9f (P4, P3, Super)
BEST VALUE: #5 BRASS HAT 9-2: Should love long stretch that mirrors CD.. 4th
MOST LIKELY: #3 Grasshopper 2-1: Farish-Howard bulldog targeted this.. 2nd
Next Best: #2 Silver Lord 5-1: Can take them long way up front.. DNF
Exotics Add: #7 Magna Graduate 5-1: Todd returns to blinkers (2/07) 2nd off break.. 5th
7th: 16th Mervyn Munoz Jr. H., 4+, 9f-T (P6, P3, Super)
MOST LIKELY: #10 Daytona 3-1: Tough to argue against Hendricks' scrappy red.. 3rd
BEST VALUE: #4 Jazz Quest 10-1 Has been different horse since Xmas eve.. 5th
Next Best: #8 Proudinsky 7-2: Frankel expecting big effort from 5yo.. WON
Exotics Add: #2 Yate's Black Cat 15-1: Saves ground under Kent; Exotics booster.. 8th
8th: 42nd FG Oaks, 3yo-F, 8.5f (DD, P3)
MOST LIKELY: #1 Indian Blessing 3-5: Hard for rival to beat her here.. 2nd
Next Best: #2 Proud Spell 6-5: Gets no help from supporting cast today.. WON
Best Value: #3 Acacia 10-1 3rd
9th: 95th Louisiana Derby (Gr. II), 3yo, 8.5f (P4, P3, Super)
1. Stevil (Castro/Zito) 15-1: Zito grey won at first asking and has met toughies since; Stalker-closer type not worst exotics stab in group as long FG stretch will suit..
2. My Pal Charlie (Leparoux/Stall) 20-1: Interesting proposition from Al Stall with Indian Charlie bay who may be getting good now; Last was sharp, and fact he gets first jump on J Be K gives shot at board hit; Using.. 2nd
3. Pyro (Bridgmohan/Asmussen) 7-5: 5/2-2-1 career mark with 3 beats only at hands of War Pass says it all; Though anxious to be fully convinced, am prepared to side with those that believe Winchell's Pulpit homebred is 100% bona fide under any scenario; Imposing here.. WON
4. J Be K (Desormeaux/Asmussen) 12-1: From the owner who brought you Fountain of Youth runners Z Humor (8 days rest) and Halo Najib (13 days) comes this immensely talented Silver Deputy colt fresh from a 6f win off a 6 month break; Will lead turning for home, and will need to be Curlinesque to win from that point..
5. Unbridled Vicar (Lanerie/Geier) 20-1: Hard trying Vicar gelding never worse than 4th (Risen Star) in 7 career efforts, and looks like the type that needs two tries at each level to move forward; Tafel (Street Sense) homebred was flattered by Denis of Cork's Southwest, and is fully capable of another Suoperfecta finish here..
6. Tale of Ekati (Prado/Tagg) 7-2: Futurity winner from Tagg makes anticipated 3yo debut, and given expectation of just 2 pre-Derby tries, expect Barclay to have him close to 100%; Fipke homebred may not love 10f at CD come May, but this oval and trip right up his alley; Speed to attend pace and kick to compete late; Most likely upsetter..
7. Blackberry Road (Albarado/Carroll) 10-1: Hard luck Dogwood colt picks up Albarado after series of tough trip beats under Borel; Trainer Carroll (Denis of Cork) with embarassment of springtime riches as this Gone West dark bay looks ready to break through at any time; Many rooting for.. 4th
8. Yankee Bravo (Solis/Gallagher) 4-1: Undefeated Yankee Gentleman colt cost $17k at F-T/KY July '06, and debuted nicely with rally in budget MDN event at cut-rate UK oval; US exploits under Paddy perfect, but have doubts about ability on dirt strip where speed is a necessity; Underlay.. 3rd
9. Majestic Warrior (Gomez/Mott) 9-2: Regally-bred Steinbrenner bay not only makes anticipated return here, but son of Dream Supreme also asked to 2-turn route for first time; Has earnings from rich Hopeful win in 2nd career start at Spa, so doubt Mott is asking for best first back; Will watch one..
SELECTIONS:
1. #3 Pyro 7-5 WON
2. #6 Tale of Ekati 7-2 6th
3. #5 Unbridled Vicar 20-1 9th
4. #2 My Pal Charlie 20-1 2nd
.50 P5 Play:
5: 2-3-6-(7 SCR)
6: 2-3-5
7: 2-4-7-8-10
8: 1-2
9: 3
3x3x5x2x1 = 90/2 = $45
P4 Play:
6: All
7: All
8: 1
9: 3
6x10x1x1 = $60
10th: 22nd Bienville, F&M-4+, 5.5f-T (P3, Super)
MOST LIKELY: #7 Jazzy 4-1: Working great for return; Back with GoGo.. 2nd
BEST VALUE: #11 Tres Dream 10-1: Bred for lawn and dangerous.. 4th
Next Best: #6 Smitty's Sunshine 5-1: Defending champ aced prep for this.. 5th
Exotics Add: #3 Bewitching Miss 15-1: In career best form; Will be boxcars.. 6th
11th: OC/N1x, 4+, 1m (DD, Super)
MOST LIKELY: #8 Le Dauphin 3-1 4th
BEST VALUE: #5 King of Speed 9-2 8th
Next Best: #6 Sonoma Cat 4-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #1 A P Dreamer 6-1 6th
12th: MSW, 3yo, 1m-40y (Super)
Best Value: #11 Evade 6-1 3rd
Most Likely: #3 Proud Kentuckian 9-2 WON
Next Best: #6 Fort Apache 3-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #8 Square Deal 4-1 7th
P6 Play:
7: 4-7-8-10
8: 1 `
9: 3
10: 3-6-7-11
11: 5-8
12: 3-6-11
4x1x1x4x2x3 = 96 x $2 = $192
<$50 P4 Play:
9: 3
10: 1-3-6-10-11
11: 5-6-8
12: 3-6-11
1x5x3x3 = $45
Good luck!
Steve