Tampa Wednesday 02-20-08

[Bigsmc]

Pick 4

Race 7:

2 - Cape Konerko - Heading in the right direction.
5 - Move It Ya - Both wins on a "good" track, can he handle a fast one? Scratched
7 - E T to the Moon - Ness off the claim.

Race 8:

1 - A Week Gift - Nice work after debut win. Scott 18% 2nd out.
8 - Repent's Gem - On the engine under Mike Allen. Scratched

Race 9:

1 - Touchdown Peyton - Dropping plodder needs a meltdown.
2 - Jumbo Sky - Ness had a race to figure this one out. Won't be 6w today.
7 - Roman Valor - Picks up the lifetime condition. Two back off the turfer was a good one.

Race 10:

8 - Bayou Jazz - Off 60 days after a nice CRC effort. Legged up at Payson with some decent works.
7 - Conchita - Just missed in her first Tampa outing. Nice blowout on Feb. 16.
4 - Glimmering Hope -Firing bullets for Joan Scott. Well backed in her debut where she ran an even 4th.
10 - Lady Tiffany - Will need to rate as Scocca will be gunning with the 6 - Apple Valley Girl

Small Ticket:

2,7/1/1,2/4,7,8,10 = $16

Big Ticket:

2,4,6,7,8/1/1,2,7/4,6,7,8,10 = $75

GL to all.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Bomb central here at Tampa lately and it may very well continue on today, with 2 conditioned claiming events and a Maiden Special Weight contest involved it the Pick 4 today…

Race 7 3yo Clm 16K N3L 6F

3 Inside Zone – Close in alw tries, drops to conditioned 16 and should have the trip to get CC Yang his first win of the meet WON
5 Move it Ya – Finally spotted at the right level – GP ship in drew off last; Red Hot Rosie in the irons and Andrade nice stats off the layoff/ when won last SCRATCHED
7 ET to the Moon – Ness / Centeno…Hard to really believe how this guy is able to move horses up off the claim, but the stats don’t lie…Not crazy about the climb from mdn8 to here, and any other trainer would be a toss for me, but gotta use 4th
2 Cape Korenko – Steadily moving up in class and form, fits here especially if the speed falls apart


Race 8 Fillies 3yo ALW 20200 N1X 1mi TURF

AE12 La Corredora – Classy El Corredor filly found a home on the weeds and Velez is top notch; enough pace here to play right into her hands SCRATCHED
3 Sara’s Hot Shot – Improvement in the saddle and a respectable effort against the boys last out – working bullets in the morning and well meant coming from off the pace 3rd
AE13 Trizelle – Well connected Malibu Moon filly from the Motion barn ships back in after being overly matched for her first effort against winners – 13 post is no bargain, but Centeno back aboard finds a nice spot here SCRATCHED
6 Indy’s Ahoyka – Rosairo got her 2nd win of the meet :eek: aboard last closing like a fiend after going 4 wide into the stretch 2nd
8 Repents Gem – If she takes to the grass, should have it all her own way on the front end SCRATCHED
For scratches move up: 1 A Wee Gift,
and the 2 Be My Gal WON

Race 9 4yo and Up Clm16K N3L 1 1/16 mi
7 Roman Valor – 2 for 25 lifetime; 0 for 9 on the dirt; 6% trainer that’s 0-19 turf to dirt…hard to find something to like about this one – considering he just missed 2 back at the same condition and gets Willie Martinez back – going to use and should be a nice price 2nd
1 Touchdown Peyton -This guy has burned me since he got here, but the drop out of AOC 32 to conditioned 16 should be more than enough to get him home this time – not a whole lot of experience over the dirt, but has handled it more than adequately
2 Jumby Sky – Ness / Centeno; others more likely but not going to get beat leaving them off WON
6 Vicar in the House – Not crazy about the jock choice, but it’s slim pickin’s on a rare Wednesday card – just missed last should factor

Race 10 3yo Fillies Md Sp Wt 20G 1mi TURF
7 Conchita – Hard to imagine anyone else, but this is Tampa and these are maidens…hard to single, but a logical one WON
10 Lady Tiffany – Smart Strike Filly see firm turf for the first time – should give Conchita a run for her money 4th
8 Bayou Jazz – Centeno aboard this very well bred (Dixieland Band/Gone West mare) filly, hard to ignore 2nd


Big ticket: 2,3,7//1,2,3,6//1,2,6,7//7,8,10 = 144.00 328.40
Small: 2,3,7//1,3,6//1,2,6,7//7,10 = 72.00

[tiggerv]

Race 7 – I think it's the most wide open of the P4. Going 5 deep with backups and I think 7 of these have a shot at it

A) 3 Inside Zone – With any other connections this horse would be 2-1 WON
A) 7 ET To The Moon – With any other connections this horse would be 8-1. Should be a B/C on my ticket but I can't fight the power of Ness
A) 2 Cape Konerko – Repeat effort of last puts this one right there. Improvement gives him a big chance
B) 8 Coping With Us – Pace factor at a minimum, should improve now back with fellow claimers
A) 5 Move It Ya – Should be enough pace for this one to close - Scratched

Race 8 – Several AE on the sidelines that will change this ticket if they draw in

A) 1 A Wee Gift – Love 2nd time starters, like the turf pedigree, like the connections
A) 2 Be My Gal – Should like the slight cut back in distance and a realistic pace to press WON
B) 6 Indy's Ahyoka – Showed big improvement on turf last out but it may have been the distance more than the surface. Couldn't they find a better jock?
B) 3 Sara's Hot Shot - Added
B) 7 Are You Worthy - Adding based on Doc's recommendation
A) 8 Repent's Gem – Best form and figures but I have no idea why moving to turf - Scratched

Race 9 – Wide open race where I don't like anybody. I will take the 2 class droppers and the super trainer.

A) 1 Touchdown Peyton – Well at least he will get the distance right? Still bitter this horse cost me a P4 at Saratoga this year when he won that marathon.
A) 7 Roman Valor – Turf pedigree with a dismal record but has been facing much better. He could win by 5 or finish last.
A) 2 Jumby Sky – Ness/Centeno. Powerless to their magic. WON

Race 10 – Strong maiden turfer with 3 standouts.

A) 7 Conchita – Only worry is the slight cutback to 8F WON
A) 10 Lady Tiffany – No shame fading in yielding turf last out. Should be right there
B) 8 Bayou Jazz – Ran even last out but draws Centeno

Playing the 4A ticket for $2 all backup combos for $1

Paid 328.40 x 2 = $656.80

[docicu3]

Race 8 – Several AE on the sidelines that will change this ticket if they draw in


) 6 Indy's Ahyoka[/B] – Showed big improvement on turf last out but it may have been the distance more than the surface. Couldn't they find a better jock?

It's pretty Tiggerv hard to bail on a jock that won with her last out and has a $2.70 ROI with the trainer and a 15% win rate on turf.....

I am a little surprised that all three of you (Bigs and Elvis) want no part of the #7 "You Are Worthy" with Garcia aboard for Hyatt who has insane #'s at Tampa and Turf ....small sample but stick out nonetheless


KEY TRAINER DATA - Hyatt, Freddie

Category Starts.........................................Win %..ITM%.. ROI

Overall........................................... ... 166...17.5 47.0 2.85

At TAM............................................. 161.....18.0 47.8 2.90

With Garcia, Jesse Jimenez.....................26...19.2 61.5 4.02

Turf.......................................... .......41..19.5...48.8...3.28

Dirt to Turf...........................................19 26.3 57.9 4.28

First time Turf.....................................12 33.3 58.3 7.58

First time Route..................................10 40.0 60.0 11.30

[tiggerv]

It's pretty Tiggerv hard to bail on a jock that won with her last out and has a $2.70 ROI with the trainer and a 15% win rate on turf.....

I am a little surprised that all three of you (Bigs and Elvis) want no part of the #7 "You Are Worthy" with Garcia aboard for Hyatt who has insane #'s at Tampa and Turf ....small sample but stick out nonetheless

The comment on Rosario was more of a joke than anything because I try not to make a habit of betting on jocks that are 2 for their last 80 and have an ROI of -.92 over the last year even if they had a 27 dollar winner last out that gives an inflated ROI with the trainer.

You Are Worthy does have some positives but I also see a horse that arguably has the worst turf pedigree in the field. She is not only moving dirt to turf but also sprint to route. Finally I think the jump from maiden claimers to first level allowance is huge. Had she come out of a better maiden race I might be more inclined to put her on the ticket. Certainly there is some value if she floats up from the ML odds since she could improve big 2nd out.

[guido75]

Hey Guys,

I got involved with this crazy game just last spring thanks to my good friend Gales. I have had WAY more losses then wins, but I will say You guys have Tampa down to a science. The few bright spots in my recent playing have been picks 3's and a few tri's from your posts. I fully admit There is more red then black in overall profit but it is amazing how you guys have this track down. Just wanted to say thanks and keep up the great work. Grateful to the posts on Tampa.

Guido

[Rudeboyelvis]

Race 8 – Several AE on the sidelines that will change this ticket if they draw in


) 6 Indy's Ahyoka[/B] – Showed big improvement on turf last out but it may have been the distance more than the surface. Couldn't they find a better jock?

It's pretty Tiggerv hard to bail on a jock that won with her last out and has a $2.70 ROI with the trainer and a 15% win rate on turf.....

I am a little surprised that all three of you (Bigs and Elvis) want no part of the #7 "You Are Worthy" with Garcia aboard for Hyatt who has insane #'s at Tampa and Turf ....small sample but stick out nonetheless


KEY TRAINER DATA - Hyatt, Freddie

Category Starts.........................................Win %..ITM%.. ROI

Overall........................................... ... 166...17.5 47.0 2.85

At TAM............................................. 161.....18.0 47.8 2.90

With Garcia, Jesse Jimenez.....................26...19.2 61.5 4.02

Turf.......................................... .......41..19.5...48.8...3.28

Dirt to Turf...........................................19 26.3 57.9 4.28

First time Turf.....................................12 33.3 58.3 7.58

First time Route..................................10 40.0 60.0 11.30
Doc - I like both of the firsters in here, but I like the 2 AE's better - if they don't draw in, I'm going to add the 1 and possibly the 7.
Like Tiggerv mentioned, pedigree. Forbidden Apple on top of Homebuilder doesn't scream turf nor two turns. Freddie's turf stats, while impressive, negate the fact that JJ is struggling in the saddle so far and is going to have his hands full against more talented, experienced horses here.
All that said, he probably win and now I need to find a way to include :D

[Rudeboyelvis]

Hey Guys,

I got involved with this crazy game just last spring thanks to my good friend Gales. I have had WAY more losses then wins, but I will say You guys have Tampa down to a science. The few bright spots in my recent playing have been picks 3's and a few tri's from your posts. I fully admit There is more red then black in overall profit but it is amazing how you guys have this track down. Just wanted to say thanks and keep up the great work. Grateful to the posts on Tampa.

Guido

Thanks Guido. I know he doesn't post much, but tell Marty we all said hey and hopefully we'll see you guys in Saratoga :cool:

[Rudeboyelvis]

Scratches

2/20/2008

Race # Horse # Name
6 2 Mis Max
6 11 Sweet Timber
6 12 Casupa
6 13 Holiday Blaze
6 14 So Elegant
7 5 Move It Ya
8 8 Repent's Gem
8 12 La Corredora
8 13 Trizelle
8 14 Ghazia
9 4 Here to Please
10 11 New Englander
10 12 Sweet Soleil
10 13 Cervesa Especial
10 14 Malitzin

[docicu3]

Doc - I like both of the firsters in here, but I like the 2 AE's better - if they don't draw in, I'm going to add the 1 and possibly the 7.
Like Tiggerv mentioned, pedigree. Forbidden Apple on top of Homebuilder doesn't scream turf nor two turns. Freddie's turf stats, while impressive, negate the fact that JJ is struggling in the saddle so far and is going to have his hands full against more talented, experienced horses here.
All that said, he probably win and now I need to find a way to include :D


While I agree the pedigree for turf just plain sucks, I have just learned with this place, and a few other second tier tracks, to pay attention to up and coming trainers who are showing they seem to know what they are doing.
A good example of this is the Sherman kid in No Cal who seems to be able to get anything to run any distance and surface!!! BTW who I disagree with frequently but on this I agree, puts out this thought all the time here.

"Don't ask a horse who has run bupkus on dirt to run great on turf especially after multiple dirt defeats"......It stands to reason that a horse who won first out and broke last in a field of 12 and BLEW AWAY THE FIELD 6 WIDE should have more than a suspicion that the horse is live!! Watch that race if you can..

With Repent's Gem and the AE's out now I can't see how you leave this horse out of the running to win, #1 A Wee Gift and #2 Be My Gal and the #6 Indy's Ahyoka are the others who will be on my P4's and 3's.
P4 post to follow

[pmacdaddy]

Home sick as a dog today. No Big A, much to my dismay.

Time for me to delve into Tampa a bit...

Good Luck!

[docicu3]

Centeno at 10-1 on 2nd timer.....wish I had looked at the early races today before I came home in the snow.....oh well plenty of time for all

GL DT today....lets take some of this cash from these warmer folks!!

[fantini33]

Here we go...

Race #4) $5 Pick 3---- 2 / 3 5 / 4 5 6 9 ---$40

Race #7) $1 Pick 4---- 2 3 4 7 8 / 1 3 / 1 2 7 / 7 8 ---$60
Race #7) $1 Pick 4---- 2 / 1 3 / 1 2 7 / 4 6 7 8 10 ---$30

Good luck to all!

[fantini33]

Anyone have Pick 3 will pays available?

Live 5x to the 4 5 6 9.

Thanks.

[pmacdaddy]

4 - $739
5 - $135
6 - $288
9 - $411

From NYRA Site. Think those are $2.

I will try pk 3 starting here 5,6,10 / 2,7 / 1

Good Luck!

[fantini33]

Thanks man. Hope to roll one in!

[tiggerv]

Thanks man. Hope to roll one in!

Good Luck

[the_fat_man]

Centeno at 10-1 on 2nd timer.....wish I had looked at the early races today before I came home in the snow.....oh well plenty of time for all




Lovely ride by Morales in that one.

[pmacdaddy]

Short pick4 ticket for some action

R7 - 2,7
R8 - 1
R9 - 1,2,6,7
R10 - 4,7,8,10

[tiggerv]

CC Yang with his first winner

[Coach Pants]

Race 8
Be My Gal

Should love the grass.

[Mortimer]

Whatevah you say.

[pmacdaddy]

Race 8
Be My Gal

Should love the grass.

Nice one.

[tiggerv]

Race 8
Be My Gal

Should love the grass.

9/2 was a gift on her. Great call.

[Coach Pants]

Whatevah you say.
:rolleyes:

[Mortimer]

Hard Rockin Robyn

Should love the dirt.

Can get the distance.


Has nice feet.

[Mortimer]

:rolleyes:


Hey...I did say whatever you say.










Jesus.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Race 8
Be My Gal

Should love the grass.

Sweet - nice call PP

[Coach Pants]

Thanks guys

Race 9

Small wager on the 8. Not sold on the top choices in this one.

[tiggerv]

Jamie Ness is magical

[Coach Pants]

Cole Norman Jr.

[Mortimer]

Phooey.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Nice one, Tiggerv

[tiggerv]

Nice one, Tiggerv

You too RBE. Lets get em again tomorrow.

[Bigsmc]

Pick 4

Race 7:

2 - Cape Konerko - Heading in the right direction.
5 - Move It Ya - Both wins on a "good" track, can he handle a fast one? Scratched
7 - E T to the Moon - Ness off the claim.

Race 8:

1 - A Week Gift - Nice work after debut win. Scott 18% 2nd out.
8 - Repent's Gem - On the engine under Mike Allen. Scratched

Race 9:

1 - Touchdown Peyton - Dropping plodder needs a meltdown.
2 - Jumbo Sky - Ness had a race to figure this one out. Won't be 6w today.
7 - Roman Valor - Picks up the lifetime condition. Two back off the turfer was a good one.

Race 10:

8 - Bayou Jazz - Off 60 days after a nice CRC effort. Legged up at Payson with some decent works.
7 - Conchita - Just missed in her first Tampa outing. Nice blowout on Feb. 16.
4 - Glimmering Hope -Firing bullets for Joan Scott. Well backed in her debut where she ran an even 4th.
10 - Lady Tiffany - Will need to rate as Scocca will be gunning with the 6 - Apple Valley Girl

Small Ticket:

2,7/1/1,2/4,7,8,10 = $16

Big Ticket:

2,4,6,7,8/1/1,2,7/4,6,7,8,10 = $75

GL to all.

Well, scratches decimated those tickets....

[tiggerv]

Have you looked at tomorrows card yet Bigs? I think I am going to pass. A chalky turf sprint, two 8K claimers and then a MC8000.

[Bigsmc]

Have you looked at tomorrows card yet Bigs? I think I am going to pass. A chalky turf sprint, two 8K claimers and then a MC8000.

Nope, I've been driving all day and just got to my hotel room and checked today's charts.

I'm going to check it out right now. Not sure if I have the energy to put ticket together.

I'm in Spyder territory....SC

[Rudeboyelvis]

Nope, I've been driving all day and just got to my hotel room and checked today's charts.

I'm going to check it out right now. Not sure if I have the energy to put ticket together.

I'm in Spyder territory....SC

Wondered about ya Bigs - not like you to not update your picks when you can help it :)

Safe travels, dude.

Good luck tomorrow everybody - I'm heading over to the east coast for the weekend, going to try and talk the wife into Gulfstream Sunday for the FOY on the way back to Tampa (doubt it :D ) but will be hit or miss this weekend whether I'll get a chance to post picks or not... Entering Wicked Sweet on Saturday for Tuesday...sick I missed getting her in that 8k this past Tuesday - the pace she needed and the horse that came in last in our 10k start took it (Red Chili Knees)

[Bigsmc]

Wondered about ya Bigs - not like you to not update your picks when you can help it :)

Safe travels, dude.

Good luck tomorrow everybody - I'm heading over to the east coast for the weekend, going to try and talk the wife into Gulfstream Sunday for the FOY on the way back to Tampa (doubt it :D ) but will be hit or miss this weekend whether I'll get a chance to post picks or not... Entering Wicked Sweet on Saturday for Tuesday...sick I missed getting her in that 8k this past Tuesday - the pace she needed and the horse that came in last in our 10k start took it (Red Chili Knees)

Saw her sis won the first today. 2nd out. Paid $21.

[Coach Pants]

Congrats on another hit, tiggerv & elvis.

[docicu3]

Nice hit today Tiggr and Elvis well done!!