Kasept
01-12-2008, 05:03 AM
Outstanding action at New Orleans and Arcadia today with Gr. III Soph Stakes kicking off roads to the Louisiana and Santa Anita Derbies..
FAIR GROUNDS
Rolling P3's through R9; .10 Supers in all
4th: F.W. Gaudin Memorial, 4+, 6f ($2 P6)
Best Value: #3 Gunfight 9-2: Last sharp; Gets pace.. 8th
Most Likely: #2 Semaphore Man 5-2: Away since top level dash.. 3rd
Next Best: #1 Stormin Baghdad 3-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #7 Sumfun 6-1 7th
5th: Col. E. R. Bradley H. (Gr. III), 4+, 8.5f-T (.50 P5)
Best Value: #8 SAVE BIG MONEY 6-1: Day's Best Value Play; Turns table.. 4th
Most Likely: #4 Sterwins 7-2: ITM 7 of last 8; Versatile Canuck prepped here.. 3rd
Next Best: #10 Optimer 8-1 9th
Exotics Add: #3 Gold Sound 12-1 8th
6th: Louisiana H., 4+, 8.5f (.50 P4)
Best Value: #3 Crossword 4-1: Typical steady improver for Howard.. 5th
Most Likely: #5 STEVE'S DOUBLE 3-1: Sharp since Toga upset.. 4th
Next Best: #2 Port Clyde 6-1 9th
Exotics Add: #8 Prom Shoes 15-1 2nd
.10 SUPER PLAY: 3-5/3-5/1-2-4-7-8/1-2-4-7-8 (2x1x5x4 = 40 x .30 = $12.00)
7th: Dr. A.B. Leggio Memorial, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T
Best Value: #4 Cat On a Cloud 8-1: Werner grey offers value; Close to top pair last.. 7th
Most Likely: #7 Smitty's Sunshine 7-2: Now a mare, always runs her race.. 5th
Next Best: #3 Flying Circle 3-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #8 Saorise Cat 12-1 6th
8th: Tiffany Lass, 3yo-F, 1m (.50 P4)
Best Value: #7 Highest Class 9-2: Light has come on; Half to Epsom Oaks heroine.. 3rd
Most Likely: #1 Jolie the Cat 4-1: Stretches out off big fig MDN score.. WON
Next Best: #2 Diamondaire 7-2: Beat highly-regarded Stidham filly last.. 4th
Exotics Add: #3 Tizaqueena 3-1: Different highly-regarded Stidham filly an underlay here.. 2nd
9th: The LeComte (Gr. III), 3yo, 1m
1. Texas Fever (Theriot/Stidham) 122 (4-1): Critics cite initial dirt try coming now, but star quality Stidham runner cut out for the main and has worked lights out for spot; BC Juvy Turf try a horror show, but Stonerside homebred just kept coming with sneaky great effort; $60k in Graded gelt already, and the one we're watching most closely looking towards Louisville..
2. The Darp (Albarado/Werner) 116 (8-1): Proud Citizen bay from talented Werner appreciated 2nd turn when demolishing MSW foes third career outing; May be the type that needs experience with each step forward, but faced good ones sprinting and figures to get forward placing here that should translate to good trip; Value will be there and leaning towards using $130k KEE Nov. Yearling liberally..
3. He's Eze (Rivera/Oliver) 122 (12-1): Calder invader exits traditional 2yo Miami wars and besting of Hutch hero Smooth Air when last seen sticks out on PP's; Solid conditioner Oliver rested Silver Deputy stalker for graded debut, and got local a.m. tour Monday; Repeat of Jack Price effort puts him in money today..
4. Star Guitar SCRATCHED
5. Z Fortune (Bridgmohan/Asmussen) 120 (6-1): NY-bred impressed in blowout BEL unvieling in October and followed it with facile Empire ALW score on Big A Inner; Sees open and graded company for first time, and would be no surprise if son of Siphon becomes Zayat Derby prospect #17 by day's end..
6. Blackberry Road (Borel/Carroll) 116 (7-2): $235k more than Dogwood typically spends under gavel, and D. Carroll hopeful has done little wrong on real main tracks building 6/1-1-2-1 record; Hard-pressed to swallow 7-2 ML on Gone West colt that seems a tad over-rated..
7. Mad Flatter (Graham/Thornbury) 118 (6-1): Homebred bay by Flatter earned diploma on sealed CD slop ahead of off-turf ALW score this oval; Steady figure earner could jump up, but doubt he beat much in the two wins and folded the one time he was confronted in the stretch; Leaning elsewhere..
8. Macho Again (Leparoux/Stewart) 118 (9-2): Stewart rolling at NOLA and Macho Uno grey looks like "this year's model" of Flashy Bull for West Point Derby interests; Debutted 2nd in Spa MSW that has produced glut of real horses, and neckjob to Monba in juvy season-ender hinted at good things ahead; Stalker type stands to lose ground early, but could make presence felt late under good rally rider Leparoux..
9. Star Defender (Mena/Asmussen) 116 (12-1): Should probably fear "2nd" Asmussen runner, but $400k Jess Jackson purchase looks hopeless versus these off 2yo form that featured stops at Ellis, Remington and Zia Park; Vindication bay oddly spotted unless he's grown wings since November..
SELECTIONS:
1. #1 Texas Fever 7th
2. #2 The Darp 5th
3. #3 He's Eze 3rd
4. #5 Z Fortune WON
.50 All-Stakes P4 Play:
6: 3-5
7: 3-4-7
8: 1-2-7
9: 1-2-3
2x3x3x3 = $54/.50 = $27
.50 All-Stakes P5 Play:
5: 4-8
6: 3-5
7: 3-4-7
8: 1-2
9: 1-2-3-5-6-8
2x2x3x2x6 = $144/.50 = $72
10th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m (DD)
Best Value: #7 SCR
Most Likely: #3 Mister Fusaichi 7-2
Next Best: #8 Written in Stone 4-1
Exotics Add: #1 Romeo Niner 15-1
11th: MSW, 3yo, 6f
Best Value: #7 Smirk 12-1
Most Likely: #9 Mr. Serious 4-1
Next Best: #3 Seeking the Lead 9-2
Exotics Add: #4 Champ Gator 5-1
.50 Late P4 Play:
8: 1-2
9: 1-2-3-5
10: 1-3-8
11: 3-7-9
2x4x3x3 = 72/.50 = $36
SANTA ANITA
5th: San Raphael (Gr. III), 3yo, 1m
1. El Gato Malo (Flores/Dollase, C.) 119 (3-1): West Coast West Point interest under direction of '07 breakthrough conditioner Dollase; Owns pair of open length scores comin in and should sit trip behind Pletcher product gated adroit; May not want classic distance but El Corredor gelding certainly suited for today's tour; Using..
2. Talk of a Cat (Gomez/Pletcher) 116 (5-2): $625k Coolmore buy at Saratoga Select Sale was OK in debut behind 'Racecar' and Mad Flatter before wiring HOL foes in zippy time; Gives 2 turns a try and may well find self alone and loose; Another good for today and questionable going 9f+..
3. Sierra Sunset (Espinoza/Bonde) 122 (5-1): Stoutly-campaigned Cal-bred has visited 5 coastal venues (including Santa Rosa) en route to 8/3-2-1-$190k marks; Ran deceptively solid HOL Futurity with he, Indian Sun and Massive Drama finishing 6th, 5th and 3rd respectively less 2L apart; Honest enough Bertrando bay from Bonde seems tactical, but hard to gauge fit with added pace factors signed on and his questionable finishing ability..
4. Overbid (Baze M./Guillot) 116 (6-1): $450k Pulpit from Guillot spots group a lot of experience with maiden-breaking debut lone outing; Tend to think finding 2nd turn and stakes foes off the one start a lot to ask; Looking elsewhere..
5. Indian Sun (Solis/Hendricks) 116 (15-1): Brother Derek team visits third graded stake in a row sporting classic development arc for young horses; Shows 2 sets of paired tries and logical next step could find him in the money mix at a bonus price; Hendricks knows this path from '05 Derby run, and Injun Chuck bay looks like one of the ones here sure to run his race; Exotics booster..
6. Massive Drama (Bejarano/Baffert) 119 (2-1): Pricey Zayat buy from Kafwain is steadily slipping backwards on the fig scale as distances increase, a distressing sign; 2-1 an impossible price to embrace this time of year with young 3yo's developing at rapid rates, but sharp works from Baffert charge makes him difficult to toss totally; Using defensively only..
7. Spinning Sound (Baze T./Gallagher) 116 Blk-On (30-1): Gallagher import has disappointed in prior pair, first 2 NA, with off board finishes in Logan and Generous; Moves to sythetic possible cause for optimism given maiden hit over Lingfield's PolyTrack last summer; Couple that with addition of goggles, and 30-1 doesn't look so bad; For deep exotic plays..
SELECTIONS:
1. #1 El Gato Malo WON
2. #2 Talk of a Cat 5th
3. #5 Indian Sun 2nd
4. #6 Massive Drama 3rd
7th: San Pasqual (Gr. II), 4+, 8.5f
Best Value: #1 Thousand Words 12-1: 12-1 on Frankel-Juddmonte import?
Most Likely: #3 Heatseeker 7-2: Native Diver win best yet; Got respite..
Next Best: #5 Racketeer 5-2
Exotics Add: #2 Molengao 4-1
10th: San Fernando (Gr. II), 4yo, 8.5f
Best Value: #2 Big Bad Leroybrown 15-1: Cal-bred grey rarely runs a bad one; Fits..
Most Likely: #7 Tiago 5-2: Goodwood winner may not be fully cranked for return..
Next Best: #1 Ravel 7-2
Exotics Add: #8 Frank the Barber 15-1
Good luck!
Steve
FAIR GROUNDS
Rolling P3's through R9; .10 Supers in all
4th: F.W. Gaudin Memorial, 4+, 6f ($2 P6)
Best Value: #3 Gunfight 9-2: Last sharp; Gets pace.. 8th
Most Likely: #2 Semaphore Man 5-2: Away since top level dash.. 3rd
Next Best: #1 Stormin Baghdad 3-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #7 Sumfun 6-1 7th
5th: Col. E. R. Bradley H. (Gr. III), 4+, 8.5f-T (.50 P5)
Best Value: #8 SAVE BIG MONEY 6-1: Day's Best Value Play; Turns table.. 4th
Most Likely: #4 Sterwins 7-2: ITM 7 of last 8; Versatile Canuck prepped here.. 3rd
Next Best: #10 Optimer 8-1 9th
Exotics Add: #3 Gold Sound 12-1 8th
6th: Louisiana H., 4+, 8.5f (.50 P4)
Best Value: #3 Crossword 4-1: Typical steady improver for Howard.. 5th
Most Likely: #5 STEVE'S DOUBLE 3-1: Sharp since Toga upset.. 4th
Next Best: #2 Port Clyde 6-1 9th
Exotics Add: #8 Prom Shoes 15-1 2nd
.10 SUPER PLAY: 3-5/3-5/1-2-4-7-8/1-2-4-7-8 (2x1x5x4 = 40 x .30 = $12.00)
7th: Dr. A.B. Leggio Memorial, F&M-3+, 5.5f-T
Best Value: #4 Cat On a Cloud 8-1: Werner grey offers value; Close to top pair last.. 7th
Most Likely: #7 Smitty's Sunshine 7-2: Now a mare, always runs her race.. 5th
Next Best: #3 Flying Circle 3-1 2nd
Exotics Add: #8 Saorise Cat 12-1 6th
8th: Tiffany Lass, 3yo-F, 1m (.50 P4)
Best Value: #7 Highest Class 9-2: Light has come on; Half to Epsom Oaks heroine.. 3rd
Most Likely: #1 Jolie the Cat 4-1: Stretches out off big fig MDN score.. WON
Next Best: #2 Diamondaire 7-2: Beat highly-regarded Stidham filly last.. 4th
Exotics Add: #3 Tizaqueena 3-1: Different highly-regarded Stidham filly an underlay here.. 2nd
9th: The LeComte (Gr. III), 3yo, 1m
1. Texas Fever (Theriot/Stidham) 122 (4-1): Critics cite initial dirt try coming now, but star quality Stidham runner cut out for the main and has worked lights out for spot; BC Juvy Turf try a horror show, but Stonerside homebred just kept coming with sneaky great effort; $60k in Graded gelt already, and the one we're watching most closely looking towards Louisville..
2. The Darp (Albarado/Werner) 116 (8-1): Proud Citizen bay from talented Werner appreciated 2nd turn when demolishing MSW foes third career outing; May be the type that needs experience with each step forward, but faced good ones sprinting and figures to get forward placing here that should translate to good trip; Value will be there and leaning towards using $130k KEE Nov. Yearling liberally..
3. He's Eze (Rivera/Oliver) 122 (12-1): Calder invader exits traditional 2yo Miami wars and besting of Hutch hero Smooth Air when last seen sticks out on PP's; Solid conditioner Oliver rested Silver Deputy stalker for graded debut, and got local a.m. tour Monday; Repeat of Jack Price effort puts him in money today..
4. Star Guitar SCRATCHED
5. Z Fortune (Bridgmohan/Asmussen) 120 (6-1): NY-bred impressed in blowout BEL unvieling in October and followed it with facile Empire ALW score on Big A Inner; Sees open and graded company for first time, and would be no surprise if son of Siphon becomes Zayat Derby prospect #17 by day's end..
6. Blackberry Road (Borel/Carroll) 116 (7-2): $235k more than Dogwood typically spends under gavel, and D. Carroll hopeful has done little wrong on real main tracks building 6/1-1-2-1 record; Hard-pressed to swallow 7-2 ML on Gone West colt that seems a tad over-rated..
7. Mad Flatter (Graham/Thornbury) 118 (6-1): Homebred bay by Flatter earned diploma on sealed CD slop ahead of off-turf ALW score this oval; Steady figure earner could jump up, but doubt he beat much in the two wins and folded the one time he was confronted in the stretch; Leaning elsewhere..
8. Macho Again (Leparoux/Stewart) 118 (9-2): Stewart rolling at NOLA and Macho Uno grey looks like "this year's model" of Flashy Bull for West Point Derby interests; Debutted 2nd in Spa MSW that has produced glut of real horses, and neckjob to Monba in juvy season-ender hinted at good things ahead; Stalker type stands to lose ground early, but could make presence felt late under good rally rider Leparoux..
9. Star Defender (Mena/Asmussen) 116 (12-1): Should probably fear "2nd" Asmussen runner, but $400k Jess Jackson purchase looks hopeless versus these off 2yo form that featured stops at Ellis, Remington and Zia Park; Vindication bay oddly spotted unless he's grown wings since November..
SELECTIONS:
1. #1 Texas Fever 7th
2. #2 The Darp 5th
3. #3 He's Eze 3rd
4. #5 Z Fortune WON
.50 All-Stakes P4 Play:
6: 3-5
7: 3-4-7
8: 1-2-7
9: 1-2-3
2x3x3x3 = $54/.50 = $27
.50 All-Stakes P5 Play:
5: 4-8
6: 3-5
7: 3-4-7
8: 1-2
9: 1-2-3-5-6-8
2x2x3x2x6 = $144/.50 = $72
10th: ALW/N1X, 4+, 1m (DD)
Best Value: #7 SCR
Most Likely: #3 Mister Fusaichi 7-2
Next Best: #8 Written in Stone 4-1
Exotics Add: #1 Romeo Niner 15-1
11th: MSW, 3yo, 6f
Best Value: #7 Smirk 12-1
Most Likely: #9 Mr. Serious 4-1
Next Best: #3 Seeking the Lead 9-2
Exotics Add: #4 Champ Gator 5-1
.50 Late P4 Play:
8: 1-2
9: 1-2-3-5
10: 1-3-8
11: 3-7-9
2x4x3x3 = 72/.50 = $36
SANTA ANITA
5th: San Raphael (Gr. III), 3yo, 1m
1. El Gato Malo (Flores/Dollase, C.) 119 (3-1): West Coast West Point interest under direction of '07 breakthrough conditioner Dollase; Owns pair of open length scores comin in and should sit trip behind Pletcher product gated adroit; May not want classic distance but El Corredor gelding certainly suited for today's tour; Using..
2. Talk of a Cat (Gomez/Pletcher) 116 (5-2): $625k Coolmore buy at Saratoga Select Sale was OK in debut behind 'Racecar' and Mad Flatter before wiring HOL foes in zippy time; Gives 2 turns a try and may well find self alone and loose; Another good for today and questionable going 9f+..
3. Sierra Sunset (Espinoza/Bonde) 122 (5-1): Stoutly-campaigned Cal-bred has visited 5 coastal venues (including Santa Rosa) en route to 8/3-2-1-$190k marks; Ran deceptively solid HOL Futurity with he, Indian Sun and Massive Drama finishing 6th, 5th and 3rd respectively less 2L apart; Honest enough Bertrando bay from Bonde seems tactical, but hard to gauge fit with added pace factors signed on and his questionable finishing ability..
4. Overbid (Baze M./Guillot) 116 (6-1): $450k Pulpit from Guillot spots group a lot of experience with maiden-breaking debut lone outing; Tend to think finding 2nd turn and stakes foes off the one start a lot to ask; Looking elsewhere..
5. Indian Sun (Solis/Hendricks) 116 (15-1): Brother Derek team visits third graded stake in a row sporting classic development arc for young horses; Shows 2 sets of paired tries and logical next step could find him in the money mix at a bonus price; Hendricks knows this path from '05 Derby run, and Injun Chuck bay looks like one of the ones here sure to run his race; Exotics booster..
6. Massive Drama (Bejarano/Baffert) 119 (2-1): Pricey Zayat buy from Kafwain is steadily slipping backwards on the fig scale as distances increase, a distressing sign; 2-1 an impossible price to embrace this time of year with young 3yo's developing at rapid rates, but sharp works from Baffert charge makes him difficult to toss totally; Using defensively only..
7. Spinning Sound (Baze T./Gallagher) 116 Blk-On (30-1): Gallagher import has disappointed in prior pair, first 2 NA, with off board finishes in Logan and Generous; Moves to sythetic possible cause for optimism given maiden hit over Lingfield's PolyTrack last summer; Couple that with addition of goggles, and 30-1 doesn't look so bad; For deep exotic plays..
SELECTIONS:
1. #1 El Gato Malo WON
2. #2 Talk of a Cat 5th
3. #5 Indian Sun 2nd
4. #6 Massive Drama 3rd
7th: San Pasqual (Gr. II), 4+, 8.5f
Best Value: #1 Thousand Words 12-1: 12-1 on Frankel-Juddmonte import?
Most Likely: #3 Heatseeker 7-2: Native Diver win best yet; Got respite..
Next Best: #5 Racketeer 5-2
Exotics Add: #2 Molengao 4-1
10th: San Fernando (Gr. II), 4yo, 8.5f
Best Value: #2 Big Bad Leroybrown 15-1: Cal-bred grey rarely runs a bad one; Fits..
Most Likely: #7 Tiago 5-2: Goodwood winner may not be fully cranked for return..
Next Best: #1 Ravel 7-2
Exotics Add: #8 Frank the Barber 15-1
Good luck!
Steve