SentToStud
07-14-2006, 10:16 AM
Races 7-11.... Back to front. I'm assuming fast/good-to-firm.
R 11. Don't think Fog loses here. He ran too well here last year and while he picks up 2 lb vs Kelly's (and Fog has not won carrying 125), I don't see it mattering. I also think Kelly's LAnding is in a tough and tight spot from the inside and don't think he can pass three or four horses for a 1-2 finish as I think he needs to do. I also toss Pomeroy for the same reason along with the layoff. His entrymate Chandtrue looks too cheap as do Universal, Joey and BB Best..Post and pace also stops Mister Fotis. He does his best just off it and that's not going to happen. This leaves Nightmare Affair, Friendly Island, Gold Storm and Gaff. I see Friendly as a Pletcher underlay and while he's the inside speed, I see him as the pace loser. The tough toss for me is Gaff. Did not have a super-smooth trip but ran very well his last. But I don't think he's fast enough early to avoid getting the worst trip of all the contenders. Weigelia will trip out well inside/2nd-flight and absolutely loves the track. Ditto for Nightmare. Gold Storm probably gets the best trip just off Fog and Friendly Island, is very fast, can rate and has run very well everywhere he's raced other than Churchill where after the race he laid off 13 months. That race is a toss for me. His BCS race was a good one as he was widest on the early pace, was still right there at the 1/8 pole and didn't stop badly.
P-5 single: Fog
P-5 Wider: Fog, Gold Storm
Tri play:
1st: Fog
2nd: Nightmare Affair/Weigelia/Gold Storm
3rd: Nightmare/Weigelia/Gold Storm
1st: Gold Storm
2nd: Fog
3rd: Nightmare/Weigelia
R 10
P-5 Single: Dubai Escapade.
Hot Storm looks too cheap. I toss Leave me Alone for lack of form and loss of early speed. Malibu, Ebony and Annika I also toss although I can see Malibu picking up some late pieces. I'm going to use Prospective Saint for second here. Wolfson ALWAYS gets a piece of this card and she looks like she'll get a clean inside trip.
Ex: Dubai Escapade over Prospective Saint.
R9:
P-5 : Bling, Northern Soldier
Pace, post, trip, ride and maybe just beaten by a better horse last time cost Bling. Clear trip and he's going to get a soft second quarter. I do think Northern Storm has a decent chance to stay with Bling and run him down and I will bet Northern to win at 7/2+. The rest look overmatched to me.
R8:
Leaning toward the locals and the first flight. Gn Rummy, Bow Out, Sgt Bert, Kaufy, DirtyMo, and Marleys are my class/pace tosses. I'm tossing Justice for trip. He's nice and classy, but he's going to be a short price and has a huge fondness for not finishing up and his guaranteed wide trip imo leaves him short at the end. I don't see much to separate Mountain (Gleaves claim... hot as a pistol now and can improve off prior trainer), Whata Soldier (likely favorite but not unbeatable) and Western Kind (better post/trip this time vs last 2 at CD). Kopper Kilgoar is in super form and I won't leave Hills out of this at a price.
P5: Love My Mountain, Whata Soldier, Kopper Kilgoar, Western Kind.
R 7:
Tosses are Mykindofsaint, Rich Fantasy, A Sea Trippi Bayou's Lassie (class, speed). G City Gal is a tough p-5 toss, but a toss nonetheless. She's been life and death to beat cheaper and while she's had some excuse in both losses she's very beatable here and will not be worth her price. Victorina has a big shot, but has to pass a few to get up and is trip vulnerable. I like Morner here a lot. Awesome race 2-back at CD and not badly beaten by Joint Effort, Gasia, and Ermine... all at longer distances. Sprinting is her best and she's going to walk to the lead from the outside.
P5 Single: Morner
P5 Wider: Morner, Victorina.
good luck at the Summit.
R 11. Don't think Fog loses here. He ran too well here last year and while he picks up 2 lb vs Kelly's (and Fog has not won carrying 125), I don't see it mattering. I also think Kelly's LAnding is in a tough and tight spot from the inside and don't think he can pass three or four horses for a 1-2 finish as I think he needs to do. I also toss Pomeroy for the same reason along with the layoff. His entrymate Chandtrue looks too cheap as do Universal, Joey and BB Best..Post and pace also stops Mister Fotis. He does his best just off it and that's not going to happen. This leaves Nightmare Affair, Friendly Island, Gold Storm and Gaff. I see Friendly as a Pletcher underlay and while he's the inside speed, I see him as the pace loser. The tough toss for me is Gaff. Did not have a super-smooth trip but ran very well his last. But I don't think he's fast enough early to avoid getting the worst trip of all the contenders. Weigelia will trip out well inside/2nd-flight and absolutely loves the track. Ditto for Nightmare. Gold Storm probably gets the best trip just off Fog and Friendly Island, is very fast, can rate and has run very well everywhere he's raced other than Churchill where after the race he laid off 13 months. That race is a toss for me. His BCS race was a good one as he was widest on the early pace, was still right there at the 1/8 pole and didn't stop badly.
P-5 single: Fog
P-5 Wider: Fog, Gold Storm
Tri play:
1st: Fog
2nd: Nightmare Affair/Weigelia/Gold Storm
3rd: Nightmare/Weigelia/Gold Storm
1st: Gold Storm
2nd: Fog
3rd: Nightmare/Weigelia
R 10
P-5 Single: Dubai Escapade.
Hot Storm looks too cheap. I toss Leave me Alone for lack of form and loss of early speed. Malibu, Ebony and Annika I also toss although I can see Malibu picking up some late pieces. I'm going to use Prospective Saint for second here. Wolfson ALWAYS gets a piece of this card and she looks like she'll get a clean inside trip.
Ex: Dubai Escapade over Prospective Saint.
R9:
P-5 : Bling, Northern Soldier
Pace, post, trip, ride and maybe just beaten by a better horse last time cost Bling. Clear trip and he's going to get a soft second quarter. I do think Northern Storm has a decent chance to stay with Bling and run him down and I will bet Northern to win at 7/2+. The rest look overmatched to me.
R8:
Leaning toward the locals and the first flight. Gn Rummy, Bow Out, Sgt Bert, Kaufy, DirtyMo, and Marleys are my class/pace tosses. I'm tossing Justice for trip. He's nice and classy, but he's going to be a short price and has a huge fondness for not finishing up and his guaranteed wide trip imo leaves him short at the end. I don't see much to separate Mountain (Gleaves claim... hot as a pistol now and can improve off prior trainer), Whata Soldier (likely favorite but not unbeatable) and Western Kind (better post/trip this time vs last 2 at CD). Kopper Kilgoar is in super form and I won't leave Hills out of this at a price.
P5: Love My Mountain, Whata Soldier, Kopper Kilgoar, Western Kind.
R 7:
Tosses are Mykindofsaint, Rich Fantasy, A Sea Trippi Bayou's Lassie (class, speed). G City Gal is a tough p-5 toss, but a toss nonetheless. She's been life and death to beat cheaper and while she's had some excuse in both losses she's very beatable here and will not be worth her price. Victorina has a big shot, but has to pass a few to get up and is trip vulnerable. I like Morner here a lot. Awesome race 2-back at CD and not badly beaten by Joint Effort, Gasia, and Ermine... all at longer distances. Sprinting is her best and she's going to walk to the lead from the outside.
P5 Single: Morner
P5 Wider: Morner, Victorina.
good luck at the Summit.