Kasept
12-31-2007, 07:02 AM
Caught the chalky P4 at the Big A Sunday ($65/$1) but can only point to bad judgement, ticket stucture and budget choice for missing the pocket change P6 ($2,675). Those that wonder why there is so much consternation over 'supertrainers' like Steve Asmussen need only look at how I was taken in by his Staid in the first leg of the sextet.
On her way to career maiden status, Staid had run well enough two back to make me think she was primed for a big effort for the high profile connections in an attempt to get her diploma before turning 3yo Tuesday. Her running style looked like a plus; her 9-2 morning line looked like a solid value if you believed it was to be her day; and Asmussen is in the midst of a year end push to nab the trainer wins title from Scott Lake.
But trying to single her was a foolhardy gambit in a race where there were at least two others in Contessa's Quixotic Lassie and Albertrani's Crane Bay that I believed capable. Firster Chicks Are Better was the Exotics Add, and probably deserved to win the race. A $236.25 trifecta was a reward for the overall race opinion, but Staid ran a non-threatening 5th.
The "Asmussen Factor" skews horseplayer judgement and slim-jims your bankroll. Just as Todd Pletcher's runners went crazily overbet during his protracted cold streak between August-October, the ominous presence of Asmussen runners, and/or erratic-performing Contessa 'move ups', amounts to an unwanted added test of mettle and deduction.
Leaving my 7th race 3rd choice Quick and Easy off the play was strictly a budgetary decision and doomed the run at a consolation in the "6" as racing came to a close for 2007 in New York. Overall, it was a very good year in the Empire State on the oval, and with the franchise battle looking to come to a satisfying conclusion with a settlement announcement sometime Monday, 2008 should be even better.
Santa Anita has a P6 carry on New Year's Eve, and it looks mighty tough with three cheap events comprising the first half the skien. But what the hell... Let's play it anyway!
SANTA ANITA
Rolling Doubles through R7; .10 Supers in all...
3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3)
Best Value: #1 Stormy Tuesday 10-1 7th
Most Likely: #8 Zee Topper 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Lady Disdain 3-1 WON
Exotics Add: #4 Megan's Mia 10-1 5th
4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P3)
Best Value: #1 Beltline Jack 6-1 8th
Most Likely: #7 Ghost Actor 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 War Scandal 3-1 7th
Exotics Add: #6 The Rye Man 5-1 5th
5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6.5f (P4,P3)
Best Value: #10 Golden Gorilla 6-1 3rd
Most Likely: #2 Distinctive Afleet 5-2 7th
Next Best: #6 The Royals Court 7-2 2nd
Exotics Add: #4 Mr. Excessive 3-1 5th
6th: CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P3)
Best Value: #1 Princess Traci 5-1 8th
Most Likely: #2 Elsie Jo 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Clever Lady 4-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #3 Onefunsonofagun 8-1 2nd
7th: 3rd Impressive Luck H., 3+, 6.5-DHT
NOTE: With SCR of T.D. Vance, add #3 Double Action 15-1.. 7th
Best Value: #6 Canteen 12-1 6th
Most Likely: #1 SCR
Next Best: #8 Quietly Mine 5-2 4th
Exotics Add: #5 Night Chapter 4-1 3rd
8th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f
Best Value: #7 CHEROKEE TEAR 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #3 L. A. Phil 7-2 7th
Next Best: #5 Stand Tall 6-1 4th
Exotics Add: #6 South Coast 5-1 5th
High 5 Play: #9 Cactus Lightening 15-1 2nd
<$150 P6 Play:
3: 1-8
4: 1-7
5: 2-6-10
6: 1-2-9
7: 3-8
8: 7
2x2x3x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144
<$50 P4 Play:
5: 2-4-6-10
6: 1-2-3
7: 3-8
8: 3-7
4x3x2x2 = $48
Good luck!
Steve
On her way to career maiden status, Staid had run well enough two back to make me think she was primed for a big effort for the high profile connections in an attempt to get her diploma before turning 3yo Tuesday. Her running style looked like a plus; her 9-2 morning line looked like a solid value if you believed it was to be her day; and Asmussen is in the midst of a year end push to nab the trainer wins title from Scott Lake.
But trying to single her was a foolhardy gambit in a race where there were at least two others in Contessa's Quixotic Lassie and Albertrani's Crane Bay that I believed capable. Firster Chicks Are Better was the Exotics Add, and probably deserved to win the race. A $236.25 trifecta was a reward for the overall race opinion, but Staid ran a non-threatening 5th.
The "Asmussen Factor" skews horseplayer judgement and slim-jims your bankroll. Just as Todd Pletcher's runners went crazily overbet during his protracted cold streak between August-October, the ominous presence of Asmussen runners, and/or erratic-performing Contessa 'move ups', amounts to an unwanted added test of mettle and deduction.
Leaving my 7th race 3rd choice Quick and Easy off the play was strictly a budgetary decision and doomed the run at a consolation in the "6" as racing came to a close for 2007 in New York. Overall, it was a very good year in the Empire State on the oval, and with the franchise battle looking to come to a satisfying conclusion with a settlement announcement sometime Monday, 2008 should be even better.
Santa Anita has a P6 carry on New Year's Eve, and it looks mighty tough with three cheap events comprising the first half the skien. But what the hell... Let's play it anyway!
SANTA ANITA
Rolling Doubles through R7; .10 Supers in all...
3rd: CLM, F&M-3+, 1m (P6, P3)
Best Value: #1 Stormy Tuesday 10-1 7th
Most Likely: #8 Zee Topper 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #5 Lady Disdain 3-1 WON
Exotics Add: #4 Megan's Mia 10-1 5th
4th: CLM, 3+, 8.5f (P3)
Best Value: #1 Beltline Jack 6-1 8th
Most Likely: #7 Ghost Actor 7-2 2nd
Next Best: #8 War Scandal 3-1 7th
Exotics Add: #6 The Rye Man 5-1 5th
5th: MDN CLM, 2yo, 6.5f (P4,P3)
Best Value: #10 Golden Gorilla 6-1 3rd
Most Likely: #2 Distinctive Afleet 5-2 7th
Next Best: #6 The Royals Court 7-2 2nd
Exotics Add: #4 Mr. Excessive 3-1 5th
6th: CLM, 2yo-F, 6f (P3)
Best Value: #1 Princess Traci 5-1 8th
Most Likely: #2 Elsie Jo 8-1 4th
Next Best: #9 Clever Lady 4-1 3rd
Exotics Add: #3 Onefunsonofagun 8-1 2nd
7th: 3rd Impressive Luck H., 3+, 6.5-DHT
NOTE: With SCR of T.D. Vance, add #3 Double Action 15-1.. 7th
Best Value: #6 Canteen 12-1 6th
Most Likely: #1 SCR
Next Best: #8 Quietly Mine 5-2 4th
Exotics Add: #5 Night Chapter 4-1 3rd
8th: S/ALW, 3+, 7f
Best Value: #7 CHEROKEE TEAR 5-1 WON
Most Likely: #3 L. A. Phil 7-2 7th
Next Best: #5 Stand Tall 6-1 4th
Exotics Add: #6 South Coast 5-1 5th
High 5 Play: #9 Cactus Lightening 15-1 2nd
<$150 P6 Play:
3: 1-8
4: 1-7
5: 2-6-10
6: 1-2-9
7: 3-8
8: 7
2x2x3x3x2x1 = 72 x $2 = $144
<$50 P4 Play:
5: 2-4-6-10
6: 1-2-3
7: 3-8
8: 3-7
4x3x2x2 = $48
Good luck!
Steve