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View Full Version : Belmont today/ my plays and info


oracle80
06-01-2006, 10:57 AM
race 1- #8 Brantley is a strong bet here. In her debut she was grabbed a hold of early after breaking a little slow. Made a move outside and ran evenly. Pletcher is 33% in 2nd starts and this filly is bred to run the longer distance much better today. Her sheet number that day was better than ANYTHING these have ever run. Add in the second start improvement and anything better than even money is a gift.
Race 2- We are going to go against the expected favorite #1 Audacious Chloe. In her debut she set moderate fractions and was still run down at the wire going 4 1/2 in rather average time. My clocker says #5 Velvet Charm is working like a very good race horse. Debuting with Lasix and gets the good outside post. Lets make it a Cold dd.
Race 4- Great reports on #3 Pletcher's One Tough Belle and #4 Zip of Fools. Use both in pik-3's and pik-4's and play an exacta box if there is any value there. Clocker says of the rest that only Donk's horse, #5, has shown anything at all, but far behind the other two.

Race 6- We don't like the favored #12 Bianca Diva and won't be including her in the top spot in exactas or pik-4's.
#3 Lady Jove worked like a real runner before her Saratoga debut last year where she flashed speed and was then laid off. Returned in May and middle moved into a very hot pace set by a runaway huge figure running winner. Drops in for a tag today and my clocker says has worked much improved since her last start. Trainer Alexander owns the horse so the drop is not a negative. Trainers like to drop down into winning spots but are often prevented from doing so by owners. Since he owns here he is taking an edge in placing her.
#4 LC Tornado ran a nice figure in her debut while racing wide and a bit green. Drops down for a tag in her 2nd start and adds blinkers. Flashed speed in her debut and with the blinkers could be cutting the pace. Use her on top.
use #'s 5 and 12 underneath in exactas.

Race 7- Hard race to play on its own merits so we will be spreading out in the pik-4. We will be using #'s 1,3,4,5,7,11 in this very hard turf sprint for Ny bred filles and mares.

race 8- very hard race as well. Problem here is that most of teh top contenders absolutely need the lead to win and all will be gunning. One could shake loose but they could also melt each othe as well. Noone has a figure edge either so we will be spreading out here as well looking for a price.
We will be using #'s 1,3,4,5,8,9

Race 9- which brings us to todays best bet and single in the Pik-4. #5 Mister Zee made his debut for Carlos Martin two starts back in a maiden claiming grass race. He caught a heaily favored MSW dropdown of Clements' named Hanging Curve and made a huge charging wide move while failing to change leads and ran a huge figure 2nd. Last year under Biancone's tutelage he caught very tough field in MSW's and a stakes race.
He ran back after the grass race in a rained off the turf race. Closed well enough for 4th. His main competitors #'s 2 and 4 were late scratches this morning and Mister Zee's sheet numbers layed over these in the first place. Carlos loves him today.

The pik-4 play is 3,4
1,3,4,5,7,11
1,3,4,5,8,9
5
72 dollars for each buck and I suggest you play it.
Good luck!!

Scav
06-01-2006, 11:08 AM
I need to quit my job so I can start playing during the day....

jpops757
06-01-2006, 11:18 AM
Makes me want to forget my few chores and go to LS but if I do Ill stay late and miss the Mavs tonight. Thanks for the recap Ora.

Cajungator26
06-01-2006, 11:18 AM
I need to quit my job so I can start playing during the day....

Ditto on that...

whorstman
06-01-2006, 11:19 AM
Man, I wish I could too, can't get outa work. I would love some insight into tomorrow's Churchill plays. Probably going for happy hour again. :cool:

PSH
06-01-2006, 11:22 AM
Oracle:

Still like Faith in the 3rd, the 2 horse at Belmont?

Sounds like you have a lot of conviction today and are expecting a potential big day.... I will be right with you.


Best of Luck,

PSH

hoovesupsideyourhead
06-01-2006, 11:37 AM
race 1- #8 Brantley is a strong bet here. In her debut she was grabbed a hold of early after breaking a little slow. Made a move outside and ran evenly. Pletcher is 33% in 2nd starts and this filly is bred to run the longer distance much better today. Her sheet number that day was better than ANYTHING these have ever run. Add in the second start improvement and anything better than even money is a gift.
Race 2- We are going to go against the expected favorite #1 Audacious Chloe. In her debut she set moderate fractions and was still run down at the wire going 4 1/2 in rather average time. My clocker says #5 Velvet Charm is working like a very good race horse. Debuting with Lasix and gets the good outside post. Lets make it a Cold dd.
Race 4- Great reports on #3 Pletcher's One Tough Belle and #4 Zip of Fools. Use both in pik-3's and pik-4's and play an exacta box if there is any value there. Clocker says of the rest that only Donk's horse, #5, has shown anything at all, but far behind the other two.

Race 6- We don't like the favored #12 Bianca Diva and won't be including her in the top spot in exactas or pik-4's.
#3 Lady Jove worked like a real runner before her Saratoga debut last year where she flashed speed and was then laid off. Returned in May and middle moved into a very hot pace set by a runaway huge figure running winner. Drops in for a tag today and my clocker says has worked much improved since her last start. Trainer Alexander owns the horse so the drop is not a negative. Trainers like to drop down into winning spots but are often prevented from doing so by owners. Since he owns here he is taking an edge in placing her.
#4 LC Tornado ran a nice figure in her debut while racing wide and a bit green. Drops down for a tag in her 2nd start and adds blinkers. Flashed speed in her debut and with the blinkers could be cutting the pace. Use her on top.
use #'s 5 and 12 underneath in exactas.

Race 7- Hard race to play on its own merits so we will be spreading out in the pik-4. We will be using #'s 1,3,4,5,7,11 in this very hard turf sprint for Ny bred filles and mares.

race 8- very hard race as well. Problem here is that most of teh top contenders absolutely need the lead to win and all will be gunning. One could shake loose but they could also melt each othe as well. Noone has a figure edge either so we will be spreading out here as well looking for a price.
We will be using #'s 1,3,4,5,8,9

Race 9- which brings us to todays best bet and single in the Pik-4. #5 Mister Zee made his debut for Carlos Martin two starts back in a maiden claiming grass race. He caught a heaily favored MSW dropdown of Clements' named Hanging Curve and made a huge charging wide move while failing to change leads and ran a huge figure 2nd. Last year under Biancone's tutelage he caught very tough field in MSW's and a stakes race.
He ran back after the grass race in a rained off the turf race. Closed well enough for 4th. His main competitors #'s 2 and 4 were late scratches this morning and Mister Zee's sheet numbers layed over these in the first place. Carlos loves him today.

The pik-4 play is 3,4
1,3,4,5,7,11
1,3,4,5,8,9
5
72 dollars for each buck and I suggest you play it.
Good luck!!
its gonna be HOT AND MUGGY...first lasix may sweat some up...

hoovesupsideyourhead
06-01-2006, 11:55 AM
after what mike said about the first at belmont ..i can safely toss penna horse cuz corny aint up,mott should be in the money...

Hoisttheflag
06-01-2006, 11:58 AM
I like that $460,000 Montbrook in the second too.

hoovesupsideyourhead
06-01-2006, 12:04 PM
you can keep that gift gogo strikes again.....lol:) :)

PSH
06-01-2006, 12:06 PM
Looks Like Brandon ran out of gas - had every chance...:(
Did back him up with the exacta which pretty much saved me...

oracle80
06-01-2006, 12:10 PM
Looks Like Brandon ran out of gas - had every chance...:(
Did back him up with the exacta which pretty much saved me...

Every chance? PSH you need to go back to race watching school and check again. That 2nd quarter move was absolutely teh stupidest thing I have ever witnessed. Do you ever nreak down fractional times? Read the other thread.

PSH
06-01-2006, 12:22 PM
Oracle:

Did not see the fractions, i am at work and glancing on the side....
Understand how you are mad and also i obviously would have preferred a winner. Please don't take it out on me... The jock Gomez is the culprit ..

Yes, i do know a thing or two about pace....

oracle80
06-01-2006, 12:30 PM
Oracle:

Did not see the fractions, i am at work and glancing on the side....
Understand how you are mad and also i obviously would have preferred a winner. Please don't take it out on me... The jock Gomez is the culprit ..

Yes, i do know a thing or two about pace....

Fair enough PSH but if you had no idea about the fractions then how closely could you have watched the race and how would you know what kind of chance she had? When you get a chance, watch the replay and note the 2nd quarter move, the time that quarter went in(mile and an eigth race for maiden fillies).

PSH
06-01-2006, 12:50 PM
Oracle 80:

When i watched the race originially i was not paying attention to the fractions - just saw him on the lead and pretty much ran out of gas although continued to be quite game...

Just looked at the replay and understand what you said....

Yes, Johnny V would have won that race....

Sorry all around because i would have won much more if he had won...

Hopefully, no hard feelings going forward....

Looks like the horse in the 9th is the major play at hopefully 3-2...

oracle80
06-01-2006, 01:05 PM
Oracle 80:

When i watched the race originially i was not paying attention to the fractions - just saw him on the lead and pretty much ran out of gas although continued to be quite game...

Just looked at the replay and understand what you said....

Yes, Johnny V would have won that race....

Sorry all around because i would have won much more if he had won...

Hopefully, no hard feelings going forward....

Looks like the horse in the 9th is the major play at hopefully 3-2...


PSH never any hard feelings. Carlos told me that he had some problems behind that he has worked on and that if the numbers have him as the best(which is what i told him) that he oughta be very hard to beat. YOu can bet him and the best part is that we won't get "Gomezed". LOL!!!!

oracle80
06-01-2006, 02:39 PM
race 1- #8 Brantley is a strong bet here. In her debut she was grabbed a hold of early after breaking a little slow. Made a move outside and ran evenly. Pletcher is 33% in 2nd starts and this filly is bred to run the longer distance much better today. Her sheet number that day was better than ANYTHING these have ever run. Add in the second start improvement and anything better than even money is a gift.
Race 2- We are going to go against the expected favorite #1 Audacious Chloe. In her debut she set moderate fractions and was still run down at the wire going 4 1/2 in rather average time. My clocker says #5 Velvet Charm is working like a very good race horse. Debuting with Lasix and gets the good outside post. Lets make it a Cold dd.
Race 4- Great reports on #3 Pletcher's One Tough Belle and #4 Zip of Fools. Use both in pik-3's and pik-4's and play an exacta box if there is any value there. Clocker says of the rest that only Donk's horse, #5, has shown anything at all, but far behind the other two.

Race 6- We don't like the favored #12 Bianca Diva and won't be including her in the top spot in exactas or pik-4's.
#3 Lady Jove worked like a real runner before her Saratoga debut last year where she flashed speed and was then laid off. Returned in May and middle moved into a very hot pace set by a runaway huge figure running winner. Drops in for a tag today and my clocker says has worked much improved since her last start. Trainer Alexander owns the horse so the drop is not a negative. Trainers like to drop down into winning spots but are often prevented from doing so by owners. Since he owns here he is taking an edge in placing her.
#4 LC Tornado ran a nice figure in her debut while racing wide and a bit green. Drops down for a tag in her 2nd start and adds blinkers. Flashed speed in her debut and with the blinkers could be cutting the pace. Use her on top.
use #'s 5 and 12 underneath in exactas.

Race 7- Hard race to play on its own merits so we will be spreading out in the pik-4. We will be using #'s 1,3,4,5,7,11 in this very hard turf sprint for Ny bred filles and mares.

race 8- very hard race as well. Problem here is that most of teh top contenders absolutely need the lead to win and all will be gunning. One could shake loose but they could also melt each othe as well. Noone has a figure edge either so we will be spreading out here as well looking for a price.
We will be using #'s 1,3,4,5,8,9

Race 9- which brings us to todays best bet and single in the Pik-4. #5 Mister Zee made his debut for Carlos Martin two starts back in a maiden claiming grass race. He caught a heaily favored MSW dropdown of Clements' named Hanging Curve and made a huge charging wide move while failing to change leads and ran a huge figure 2nd. Last year under Biancone's tutelage he caught very tough field in MSW's and a stakes race.
He ran back after the grass race in a rained off the turf race. Closed well enough for 4th. His main competitors #'s 2 and 4 were late scratches this morning and Mister Zee's sheet numbers layed over these in the first place. Carlos loves him today.

The pik-4 play is 3,4
1,3,4,5,7,11
1,3,4,5,8,9
5
72 dollars for each buck and I suggest you play it.
Good luck!!


YESSIR!!!! Exacta crushed, trifecta nailed, and live to the pik-4 in a spread ticket while the favorite I didnt like finished well off the board. Straight cold exacta as given out.

Skip away
06-01-2006, 02:43 PM
cool, pat yourself on your back. Poch loved that horse as well, but he tends to shy away from horses under 8/1. :eek:

oracle80
06-01-2006, 02:48 PM
cool, pat yourself on your back. Poch loved that horse as well, but he tends to shy away from horses under 8/1. :eek:
Skip Away, I was excited about a nice hit. Hope some others had it. I don't know exactly where Poch fits in this thread but I know him and hes a good guy. I guess if he had him you should have posted it before it went off. I hope he crushed it good.

Skip away
06-01-2006, 02:51 PM
He doesnt "crush horses" very often oracle. He tends to stick to his job for making the money he needs. Hes smart enough to know that people dont make money in the long haul gambling. He does have the occasional score but it wont be on a weekday, typically he bets more at Saratoga and on the Big days.

Glad you hit this, we thought $7 was rather generous as well :cool:

oracle80
06-01-2006, 02:53 PM
He doesnt "crush horses" very often oracle. He tends to stick to his job for making the money he needs. Hes smart enough to know that people dont make money in the long haul gambling. He does have the occasional score but it wont be on a weekday, typically he bets more at Saratoga and on the Big days.

Glad you hit this, we thought $7 was rather generous as well :cool:

Well I had the exacta cold and thought that 31 bucks and change was even better!!! Now rolling in the pik-4's, ask Brian what he likes in the last three at Belmont.

PSH
06-01-2006, 02:54 PM
Nice Hit Oracle.
Had win and place on the winner and a small exacto box.
Also played your pick 4 ticket....

It looks like it will come down to Carlos and the 9th.

Back on track and keeping our fingers crossed.

Good Luck:)

Skip away
06-01-2006, 03:06 PM
At the moment he is out and I doubt I will hear from him before 5pm, so good luck with your pick 4. :)

Skip away
06-01-2006, 03:54 PM
Oracle, I like the 7 horse in the last at Belmont but will be rooting for your 5. Take it down! ;)

oracle80
06-01-2006, 03:58 PM
Oracle, I like the 7 horse in the last at Belmont but will be rooting for your 5. Take it down! ;)
Damnit, was 2nd at 44-1 in the 7th. tesher never has a horse ready off the layoff and hes just gotta buck that today. I suspected she might be live when he named Gomez. Not much in prices in the two spread races but the payout still represents a decent creation of value. If you put 72 bucks to win on the 5 here at even money(cost of the pik-4 singling her), you would get back 144 bucks. For the same 72 bucks the way we played it youd be getting back over 200 bucks. Thaats the goal of this bet, to create value on your single by having the payout represent more than you would have gotten if you took the same investment and made a win bet on the single.
I think he rolls.

Skip away
06-01-2006, 04:11 PM
I went with #7 .

oracle80
06-01-2006, 04:14 PM
I went with #7 .
nice call but Prado oughta be gelded for that ride he gave the 5

Skip away
06-01-2006, 04:16 PM
Thanks, I thought your 5 looked okay but not worth the 4/5, where did those odds come from? Must be a lot of angry people but its horse racing. 7 crushes em :p

oracle80
06-01-2006, 04:18 PM
Thanks, I thought your 5 looked okay but not worth the 4/5, where did those odds come from? Must be a lot of angry people but its horse racing. 7 crushes em :p
Well considering he rode him like he was Secretariat instead of a maiden claimer I guess he looked at the tote board himself.
I never woulda bet him to win at 3-5. I dont make those kind of plays. Singling a horse in a pik wager is different.

PSH
06-01-2006, 04:18 PM
Thanks Skip Away for the saver on the 7.. Boxed him with Oracle' 5 which saved me in the Pick 4.....

Net net up for the day. Thanks for the ride gentleman. Could have been a really good day if we caught the opener and nightcap.

Good night

PSH

Skip away
06-01-2006, 04:20 PM
Oracle- That pick 4 was sweet, too bad you didnt use the 7 and spread less in the others. That wasnt the kind of race to single a horse in. Would have been an awfully nice score for you, better luck in LA.

oracle80
06-01-2006, 04:23 PM
Oracle- That pick 4 was sweet, too bad you didnt use the 7 and spread less in the others. That wasnt the kind of race to single a horse in. Would have been an awfully nice score for you, better luck in LA.

I disagree with the spread summation. To add one more horse in the last race would have doubled the ticket. Its easy to say now but those two races in between were murder. And to be honest, to cut the ticket in those races would have meant going 3X3 instead of 6x6, no way Im gonna use Tesher's horse off the layoff first time back in a sprint only going 3 deep, no way no how.

Skip away
06-01-2006, 04:26 PM
I played mister zee on oaks day and wasnt impressed. he put in a huge late run but to me didnt look like a horse that should be 4/5 today off that race and a so so effort on the dirt. I hate closers, they are always at the mercy of the jockey and the pace. No thanks, not at 4/5. Those are the types that you let beat you.

The_Wizard
06-01-2006, 07:58 PM
nice call but Prado oughta be gelded for that ride he gave the 5

Keep blaming the jockeys. By August you will have gone through them all.

Dunbar
06-01-2006, 11:28 PM
He tends to stick to his job for making the money he needs. Hes smart enough to know that people dont make money in the long haul gambling.

Tell that to Jim Bentner who made millions betting Hong Kong races.

Check out the posters MathBoy, bigplayer, and DD' on bj21.com. These guys are full-time pros who average over 100K/year from gambling. (not from racing, however)

To generalize that "people don't make money in the long haul gambling" is an error.

--Dunbar