BC Day 2 Plays

[justindew]

I could not have been more wrong about the first three BC races on Friday, but still had a shot at a big day, being alive to Discreet Cat and Wanderin' Boy in the Pick 4. That's horse racing. Hopefully, one of my attempts to cash a big ticket will pay off on Saturday.

Juvenile Fillies

($100) Win A to the Croft

($240) $1 Pick 4:

Smarty Deb
Proud Spell
A to the Croft

with

War Pass
Pyro
Globalization
Old Man Buck
Tale of Ekati

with

Honey Ryder
Nashoba's Key
Argentina
Danzon

with

Midnight Lute
Idiot Proof
Benny the Bull
Greg's Gold


Juvenile Colts

$264 (.10) Superfecta

Globalization, Old Man Buck
with All
with All
with All

(Oddly, the computers at Rosecroft Raceway, where I made my bets, gave me all 13 horses, even though Dixie Chatter is already scratched and the field is down to 12. So I'm already getting a refund.)


F&M Turf

($100) Win Danzon


Sprint

No Bets


Mile

($20) Win Host

($84) Pick 4

All

with

Balance
Lady Joanne
Lear's Princess
Octave
Indian Vale
Unbridled Belle

with

Dylan Thomas

with

Street Sense


Distaff

($100) Win Octave


Turf

($10) Win Fri Guy (I know, I know.)


Classic

(yet-to-be-determined amount) Win Street Sense


Pick 6

($96)

Argentina, Danzon
Midnight Lute, Idiot Proof
Host, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Excellent Art
Balance, Octave
Dylan Thomas
Street Sense, Tiago

Feel free to laugh openly. I know I am really reaching with a few of these, like Host. But they way I see it, there aren't many days in horse racing when you can take $1,000 and possibly turn it into $50,000 or more with just a little luck.

Good luck everybody. Happy Breeders' Cup!

[miraja2]

I like Globalization a bit in the Juvy but that is a pretty agressive play with him as one of two on top of a big super.
I wouldn't want to place a $264 wager that depended on him or Old Man Buck in the top spot in that race.
I'm using Globalization and a couple of others underneath Tale of Ekati and Pyro in that one.

[Cannon Shell]

I give 8 horses a chance in the mile but Host is not one of them. What is so appealing about him?

[justindew]

I give 8 horses a chance in the mile but Host is not one of them. What is so appealing about him?

I really wouldn't say he's "appealing". That's why I only put $20 on him, although I did use him in my Pick 6. Here's what I like, and like is a strong word:

-Grade 1 winner at the distance
-Winner over this track
-Solid closer
-Pletcher, who has to start winning on BC Day at some point
-30-1 or higher
-I don't like anyone else

[trifecta124]

I'm going 3 deep in each race.

Early Pick 4

Juvenile Fillies: Phantom Income, Irish Smoke, A To The Croft
Juvenile: War Pass, Kodiak Kowboy, Pyro
Filly & Mare Turf: Honey Ryder, Wait A While, Precious Kitten
Sprint: Midnight Lute, Attila's Storm, Commentator

Late Pick 4

Mile: After Market, Nobiz Like Shobiz, Silent Name
Distaff: Lady Joanne, Lear's Princess, Octave
Turf: Red Rocks, Better Talk Now, Dylan Thomas
Classic: Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, Diamond Stripes

[miraja2]

I really wouldn't say he's "appealing". That's why I only put $20 on him, although I did use him in my Pick 6. Here's what I like, and like is a strong word:

-Grade 1 winner at the distance
-Winner over this track
-Solid closer
-Pletcher, who has to start winning on BC Day at some point
-30-1 or higher
-I don't like anyone else
I doubt if he actually goes off at 30/1. My guess would be he is more in the 15/1 - 20/1 range by post time.
I agree that his ability to turn on the kick late (which he did over this track, at this distance, earlier in the year) makes him a very live longshot, but I can't really get a feel for this race at all. That and my general inability to handicap turf races makes this a skip race for me.

[Cannon Shell]

I really wouldn't say he's "appealing". That's why I only put $20 on him, although I did use him in my Pick 6. Here's what I like, and like is a strong word:

-Grade 1 winner at the distance
-Winner over this track
-Solid closer
-Pletcher, who has to start winning on BC Day at some point
-30-1 or higher
-I don't like anyone else
Would seem to be the only reason that I could agree on. Would be a major fluke but at least you will get good odds. I'm thinking 50-1 or more in a 14 horse field. Though i do like him more than Icy Atlantic and My Typhoon who will be overbet because of her stupid name.

[Cannon Shell]

I thought his race at Woodbine was a lot better than it looked. He was absolutely flying late. It was an odd trip. Mid pack, dropped back to last and then flying late. He's probably not good enough, but he'll be 30-1 minimum. I also thought it looked like speed was having a hard time there on the turf today. Host's best efforts have been when making one run and with Gomez up, i see that happening. It's a longshot, but I think he fits. Who is so scary in there?
It is not that anyone is scary but he may get shuffled back with the speed on the outside. Plus he is not really that good. I believe that his win over the track is rendered meaningless due to the obviously different condition of the course. I'm not trying to talk you off him but I have heard several people say they like this horse and i cant see it. I think the Euro, Jeremy , may be a play at 10-1 or higher. Not buying into Excellent Art from the outside.

[miraja2]

I thought his race at Woodbine was a lot better than it looked. He was absolutely flying late. It was an odd trip. Mid pack, dropped back to last and then flying late. He's probably not good enough, but he'll be 30-1 minimum. I also thought it looked like speed was having a hard time there on the turf today. Host's best efforts have been when making one run and with Gomez up, i see that happening. It's a longshot, but I think he fits. Who is so scary in there?
You really think he will be 50-1? If he is anywhere close to that I will have to change my mind and play the race and bet on him.
I think when people see the way the course is playing and the way he ran there last time they will actually bet him down from his 30-1 ML because there isn't anybody else that wonderful in here. At 20-1, I don't like him at all. At 40-1, I think he is very interesting.

[justindew]

I like Globalization a bit in the Juvy but that is a pretty agressive play with him as one of two on top of a big super.
I wouldn't want to place a $264 wager that depended on him or Old Man Buck in the top spot in that race.
I'm using Globalization and a couple of others underneath Tale of Ekati and Pyro in that one.

If this bet hits, the return will be well into the thousands for a dime.

[miraja2]

If this bet hits, the return will be well into the thousands for a dime.
Well I suppose that is true, and looking at the bets you spelled out in this thread, you obviously have MUCH deeper pockets than I do.

[justindew]

Don't think he'll be 50-1, although he might. He might get lost in the betting. Even at 20-1 I have to make a win bet on him.

Damn, I though EVERYONE would laugh at me for my Host pick, not just Chuck and Andy (although Andy hasn't laughed yet, but he will). Maybe I should toss a few more bucks on him.

[Cannon Shell]

Dont forget in 14 horse fields money is spreadout hence the longer than usual odds. I think Remarkable News is really bred for a soft turf.

[justindew]

Well I suppose that is true, and looking at the bets you spelled out in this thread, you obviously have MUCH deeper pockets than I do.

Not necessarily. I haven't bet much at all since the Belmont Stakes. Just a few Pick 6s and some plays on Travers Day. Maybe a few other days here and there. Plus, the NFL has been good to me this year.

[Cannon Shell]

Damn, I though EVERYONE would laugh at me for my Host pick, not just Chuck and Andy (although Andy hasn't laughed yet, but he will). Maybe I should toss a few more bucks on him.
Not laughing...just trying to figure out the reasoning why I have seen at least 2 posters here and three guys at Keeneland talking about or picking a horse that I expected no one to pick. I would laugh at George Washington though. And Fry Guy gets a chuckle.

[Cannon Shell]

Honestly on a firm turf I think he has no shot. But it is and will be a bog. Speed looked like it was tiring very bad on the turf today and Gomez is overly patient if anything. He has a shot.
I think speed tired on in the juvy because the pace was fast despite Trevors call. They went the second half slower than the 1st which is not like usual on turf.

[miraja2]

Dont forget in 14 horse fields money is spreadout hence the longer than usual odds. I think Remarkable News is really bred for a soft turf.
He is a bit interesting.
In his last start he didn't look like the same horse that ran at Pimlico and CD this spring, but the manner in which he gave way down the stretch looked like the classic case of a horse just needing a race. He certainly could be a factor.

[Cannon Shell]

He is a bit interesting.
In his last start he didn't look like the same horse that ran at Pimlico and CD this spring, but the manner in which he gave way down the stretch looked like the classic case of a horse just needing a race. He certainly could be a factor.
I was actually just baiting because his breeding is totally obscure to all except Johan Santana and Hugo Chavez. I woul like him if you cut his post in half. Though if he leaves hard and other take back may be sitting third while not too wide on first turn. Impossibly tough race.

[miraja2]

Not necessarily. I haven't bet much at all since the Belmont Stakes. Just a few Pick 6s and some plays on Travers Day. Maybe a few other days here and there. Plus, the NFL has been good to me this year.
I really like Street Sense as well. But I am splitting the money I am betting on that race between a straight win bet on him, and an exacta box with him and Curlin.
Curlin still scares me.

[miraja2]

Impossibly tough race.
Couldn't agree more.

[Cannon Shell]

Couldn't agree more.
I cant figure out how it will be run and the field is so close together...

I hate Dylan Thomas but cant come up with anything there either...except No Fri Guy or Transduction Gold.

[Cannon Shell]

I really like Street Sense as well. But I am splitting the money I am betting on that race between a straight win bet on him, and an exacta box with him and Curlin.
Curlin still scares me.
Street Sense by a neck over AGS with Curlin making a too late, Easy Goer type move for third

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think Remarkable News is really bred for a soft turf.

Wow.....this explanation ought to be good.

His obscure sire Chayim's biggest accomplishment was being the sales topper at the '92 Barretts March 2yo sale - and winning a couple dirt sprints in southern Cal.

The dam was by the sire Alhajras (who never hit the board in two lifetime starts) and was 2-for-12 racing in the hotbed of thoroughbred stardom that is Hugo Chavez land.

His 2nd dam Inspiring was a hopeless Slew O' Gold who never ran first or second from seven tries.

I think Remarkable News' breeding is just plain soft.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I was actually just baiting because his breeding is totally obscure to all except Johan Santana and Hugo Chavez.

And now I see I took the bait.


Thanks for wasting my time.....


It's not like I had anything better to do on a Friday night I guess.

[justindew]

This might be the first time that one of my posts hasn't turned into a battle of personal attacks between two other DTers within the first 20 replies.

[miraja2]

I cant figure out how it will be run and the field is so close together...

I hate Dylan Thomas but cant come up with anything there either...except No Fri Guy or Transduction Gold.
I am going to toss Better Talk Now and the two you mentioned and use the other five in the late pick-3. I think the rain makes Shamdinan a potential threat, despite his last two dull efforts.

[Cannon Shell]

It was fast, you're right. Speed came back in the other turf race too though. Could have just been closers were better anyway. Either way, value wise, it's probably the race of the day. And I agree, very tough to gauge.
Value is the most misused word in the betting lexicon. Value is only important when you win. The races with the most value are the ones you get more money back in than you put in. Betting on losers who are good prices will get you broke in a hurry. If you love a horse and his price is too short and there are no exotic plays that make sense, skip the race. Too many guys go against the horse they think will win because they dont like his price. The horse they like wins, they lose but they feel good about themselves because the got value. Makes no sense. That is the Cannon Shell betting editorial of week.





I say this because i can already see me sitting there with $500 worth of losing tickets after this race saying...you know I shoulda had that....

[Cannon Shell]

I am going to toss Better Talk Now and the two you mentioned and use the other five in the late pick-3. I think the rain makes Shamdinan a potential threat, despite his last two dull efforts.
I keep having this vision of BTN 10 wide passing them all...makes no sense but who the **** knows this year...

I also had a vision that it was going to rain at this BC though I thought it may be cold too...passed up freebie tickets... best call of the year

[Cannon Shell]

Thanks for the lesson.
May the force be with you...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Thanks for the lesson.

I was hoping for a Hossy training editorial for the week.....


all this time I could have been sending desperate text messages to Emily begging for her to give me a 7th chance.

[justindew]

I'm a little surprised that I have not heard anyone pick Nashoba's Key or Octave tomorrow. But then again, I haven't been listening that closely.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The weeks not over.

Of that I am thankfull.

[Cannon Shell]

I was hoping for a Hossy training editorial for the week.....

all this time I could have been sending desperate text messages to Emily begging for her to give me a 7th chance.
Three words














Dont do it....

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Three words














Dont do it....

Since your wisdom and versatility has so few boundries.....Any advice on how I can win back Emily's heart?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

And one of these days I'll need a full version of the Emily stuff. I only have bits and pieces and I'm nosey. I also am way more pathetic IMO with my ex, so it could be fun.

Nah, I doubt it will be fun.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I will be shocked if Octave wins...seriously.

As would I.


The Distaff is all about Hystericalady!!!

[Cannon Shell]

Since your wisdom and versatility has so few boundries.....Any advice on how I can win back Emily's heart?
Tell her you hate her and she is a worthless bitch....sometimes it works and if it doesn't....you dont have to try anymore

[miraja2]

I'm a little surprised that I have not heard anyone pick Nashoba's Key or Octave tomorrow. But then again, I haven't listening that closely.
I fully expect Octave to put in her usual solid effort and finish 3rd or 4th. In that race I am using Ginger Punch and Lear's Princess.
Lady Joanne and Balance are the ones that scare me a bit. Octave just doesn't win enough.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Tell her you hate her and she is a worthless bitch....sometimes it works and if it doesn't....you dont have to try anymore

It didn't work.....

And that explains my current situation.

[miraja2]

As would I.


The Distaff is all about Hystericalady!!!
She is certainly better on the dirt than on the poly, and if Bear Now wasn't in the race I would like her chances.
With Bear Now in, I think Castro will have her involved early and then she will be out of gas in the final furlong.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I fully expect Octave to put in here usual solid effort and finish 3rd or 4th. In that race I am using Ginger Punch and Lear's Princess.
Lady Joanne and Balance are the ones that scare me a bit. Octave just doesn't win enough.


What is with this parade of otherwise astute people overlooking tomorrow's biggest gift?

I'm starting to wonder if I have a different form of this race than everyone else....because on the pp's i'm using....Hystericalady is a cinch.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I think Castro will have her involved early and then she will be out of gas in the final furlong.

Bear Now isn't going to burn her up....

Hystericalady is much better suited to the nine furlong distance than many people think.

[Cannon Shell]

It didn't work.....

And that explains my current situation.
Moveon.com

[miraja2]

What is with this parade of otherwise astute people overlooking tomorrow's biggest gift?

I'm starting to wonder if I have a different form of this race than everyone else....because on the pp's i'm using....Hystericalady is a cinch.
I don't see it. She didn't show much the other time she tried this distance, and while that race was on synthetic, I don't like horses that have distance questions AND seem likely to be involved in a speed battle early.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I don't see it. She didn't show much the other time she tried this distance, and while that race was on synthetic, I don't like horses that have distance questions AND seem likely to be involved in a speed battle early.

Here's my in a nutshell summary of Hystericalady's dominance.

"Hystericalady has run Beyers of 105, 108, and 105 in her last three races over natural dirt. Not a single horse in this entire field has run a figure of 105 or better all year long.

It's true that she is a 4 length Grade 1 winning sprinter - but don't hold it against her ability to stay, she's made four lifetime starts around two turns on natural dirt - they've resulted in Beyers of 110 (at age 3) and Beyers of 105 and 105 at age four - winning those three races by a combined 18 lengths. The other race - she injured herself in and was out for eight months.

She's by Distorted Humor (who's sired such horses as Derby winner Funny Cide, Travers winner Flower Alley, Whitney winner Commentator, and Haskell winner Any Given Saturday) her dam was a Grade 2 winner in America at nine furlongs on dirt - as well as a multiple Group 1 winning marathoner in her native Chile."

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Moveon.com

Sorry man, I'm all in favor of starting a war with Iran....

Just as long as I'm not asked to fight in it of course.

[Coach Pants]

I'm a little surprised that I have not heard anyone pick Nashoba's Key or Octave tomorrow. But then again, I haven't been listening that closely.
Octave is my second choice.

[Coach Pants]

I'm in fifth in the contest but lost money on the day. Is something wrong with me or the contest point structure?

[SniperSB23]

I will be shocked if Octave wins...seriously.

Shocked or sick? Cause I'd be a little of both.

[IrishofNDMan]

Had a pretty good opening day yesterday, just missing on some good hits. In the contest I had all 3 winners yesterday, just didn't play my pick 3 ticket right costing me $795 for a $1. Also missed out on the tri in the Juvy Turf, with Cannonball somehow nipping me out for third. Better things to come today I hope!

[justindew]

I'm placing a $50 win bet on Forefathers.

[PSH]

Curlin 5-1 Win and Place

PSH

[justindew]

I just made a win bet on Diamond Stripes, $100.

[PSH]

Curlin 5-1 Win and Place

PSH

Touchdown!!!!!!!!!!!!
Curlin!!!!!!!!!

[philcski]

As would I.


The Distaff is all about Hystericalady!!!

I also took a big swing with her... would have made my year, let alone weekend. A photo I will lament for a LONG time.