Kasept
10-26-2007, 08:08 AM
Saturday's main Breeders' Cup events appear doomed to be run under difficult conditions with a turf course certain to be squishy at best and a main track potentially a quagmire. While the new grass strip comes well-regarded for its' draining properties, the dirt oval is notorious for its' inability to hold water and has been floated and sealed since mid-week. That reality gives pause for handicapping the 8 dirt tests with an eye on speed horses and just-off types with preferences for sloppy conditions on a surface already prone to kindness for runners of that ilk.
It may be a frustrating type of wagering day... Don't fret or panic and abandon your strategies completely under trying circumstances. Adjust appropriately based on what you're seeing and sensing and spread wider to include horses that may carry further on the rain-slicked surface than you gave them credit for when you capped initially. Remember it typically takes just one BC race hit to make your day a profiable one...
Good luck and enjoy the Cup!
BREEDERS CUP -- MONMOUTH PARK (Day 2)
Superfectas in all.. Pre-Scratches..
1st: 26th Pegasus (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f (P5, P3, DD)
Best Value: #3 Slew's Tizzy 9-2: Aced LS Derby on loose surface..
Most Likely: #5 Now a Victor 5-1: Spots experience; Trombo usually tough with these..
Exotics Use: #7 Bwana Bull 2-1: H'dorfer Gr. III winner circling back..
Super Add: #6 Helsinki 7-2: Travers show shocker bred to love it wet..
2nd: 56th Miss Woodford, 3yo-F, 6f (P3)
Head-scratcher with well-matched bunch..
Best Value: #8 Marina Ballerina 15-1: Aquainted with Lezcano and mud..
Most Likely: #7 Sheets 4-1: Scored with Robby in wet CRC Gr. III..
Exotics Use: #11 Coco Belle 6-1: Moss homebred a wire threat under GoGo..
Super Add: #12 International Fever 12-1: 2x stake winner can utilize crown for stalking trip..
3rd: The Select, 3yo, 6 (P3)
Best Value: #9 Silver Source 10-1: Can attend pace and wet not an issue..
Most Likely: #2 SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Piratesonthelake 3-1: DiVitto adept with sprinters; Scored at KY Cup..
Super Add: #5 Unbridled Trust 20-1; #6 Double Action 7-2
4th: BC JUVENILE FILLIES (Gr. I), $2MM, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3)
Fascinating race and maybe the day's best wagering opportunity with a bit of everything signed on and 3-1 Indian Blessing a vulnerable favorite..
Best Value: #9 Smarty Deb 30-1: Ignore Emerald Downs resume and focus on Smart Strike pedigree with Harwood's 4/4 red who's improved with added ground and blasted boys last; Bred to excel in slop and cleverly arrived here three weeks ago to prepare for this; Fully capable of starting Cup Day 2 off with a bang.. 5th
Most Likely: #10 Proud Spell 5-1: Jones first caught eyes working with fair sex trio last year, and Cowboy Larry thinks Proud Citizen daughter is a rare one; Has shown rating gear building 3/3 career record one-turning, including Gr. II Matron, and gives every indication of thriving with intro to 2nd turn; Has drilled great, and while wet an unknown, believe this miss to the one to build around in tough heat.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Grace Anatomy 10-1: O'Neill Alcibiades show pony arrives here as bit of a wiseguy horse after 'Street Sense '06-style' early move effort at KEE; Aldebaran-Storm Cat mare product should negotiate wet fine under new pilot Dettori, and merits consideration for any slot in superfecta; One more candidate in wide open affair.. 7th
Super Add: #8 Izarra 6-1: McAnally bay jumped forward in route debut and nearly caught Baffert pacesetter in Gr. I Oak Leaf, long a key race for BC Juvy gals; By Distorted Humor out of Broad Brush mare, may be best wet track candidate in race; Even with foe from Oak Leaf scratching, pace to chase seems assured; Big shot.. 10th
NOTES: #1 Phantom Income 30-1: Grey has been lauded by Violette since summer and righted ship at Swamp in NATC; Trainer/jock confident in two-turn aptitude (note slow 1m work 10/14) and price will be right; Live longshot.. #14 A to the Croft 10-1: Draw diminished appeal, but McPeek chestnut has GS runnered-up v. 3 top damsels, keeps Kent D. and adds blinks; For deep exotics..
5th: BC JUVENILE (Gr. I), $2MM, 2yo, 8.5f (P3)
Best Value: #1 Z Humor 12-1: Getting tired of watching Zayat runners score at will and Mott-Desormeaux railrunner may be next and at a square price; Interestingly adds blinks; will save all the ground and is bred perfectly for anticipated conditions.. 5th
Most Likely: #2 War Pass 5-2: Champagne winner not a productive BC Juvy prep angle of late, but Zito-LaPenta colt can reverse that trend making own luck on front end.. WON
Exotics Use: #7 Pyro 6-1: One of two Asmussens signed on (Kodiak Kowboy), Champagne runner-up was moving well late only to fall short of one above; Moved forward there, and though regression a concern on short turnaround, trainer has displayed ability to get them to hold form; More worried about traffic but bred well for off-going; Hard to exclude.. NOTE: Concerns surfacing of colt's readiness.. 2nd
Super Add: #9 Old Man Buck 20-1: First blush turf/poly player offers value as victim of circumstances regarding his placement; McPeek swears by Hold That Tiger red's main track aptitude, and wet may guild the lily for stalker-type that gets pilot upgrade in Bejarano; Blinkers part of surprise package candidate who is lone entrant making 3rd 8.5f start.. 6th
6th: BC F&M TURF (Gr. I), $2MM, F&M-3+, 11f-T (P6, P3)
Best Value: #9 Danzon 12-1: Royal Academy 4yo nearly stunned CD Turf Classic (Gr. I) field on Derby undercard on yielding soil; Merits consideration in top slots under Leparoux.. 10th
Most Likely: #4 PASSAGE OF TIME 7-2: Exits increasingly 'key' Prix Vermeille where third behind subsequent E.P. Taylor winner Mrs. Lindsey; Mastered off going as juvy and adds domestic rider familiar with course; Big edge.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Argentina 12-1 Better than she looks despite not winning since getting green card; Frankel miss one of few here comfortable this trip; Overlay.. 9th
Super Add: #12 Precious Kitten 30-1 West Coast doll came East and was excellent runner up to Vacare in Gr. II First Lady; Soft and added ground both question marks, but will be in front turning for home at huge price; Eligible to stay on to boost tri/super.. 8th
7th: BC SPRINT (Gr. I), $2MM, 3+, 6f (P3)
Best Value: #6 Commentator 12-1: Outstanding when right and consistantly good fresh; Zito gelding perfect on off track and motivated rider takes reins.. 7th
Most Likely: #2 Midnight Lute 2-1: Sprint favorites rarely win, and this oversize Baffert beast has a lot going against him in this spot; Hate the cutback and fact he'll have to come from out of it, but is so immensely talented that he remains impossible to exclude or stand against as the likliest winner; Respect totally.. WON
Exotics Use: #1 Smokey Stover 7-2: Aleo and Gilchrist return to the Cup with another brilliant runner in this 4yo Put It Back gelding; Should sit ideal stalking trip behind speediest of speeds and try to swing out for homestretch attack; Visited here and set track record; Square price and honest chance for the whole thing.. 9th
Super Add: #4 Talent Search 15-1 Shuman red by Catienus may get overlooked and has been in BC Sprint winning area code all year; Beat modest lot when winning Teddy Drone this strip, but did it in under 1:09.0 earning 103 BSF; One of several with exotics designs.. 3rd
NOTES: Would not toss #5 Kelly's Landing (20-1) out of hand despite absense from starting gates leading up to this; Working well for spot and Dettori scored on this gelding in desert Cup; Certainly employable in exotics.. 5th
Early P4 Play:
4: 1-4-8-9-10-12
5: 1-2
6: 4
7: 1-2-4-6
6x2x1x4 = $48
It may be a frustrating type of wagering day... Don't fret or panic and abandon your strategies completely under trying circumstances. Adjust appropriately based on what you're seeing and sensing and spread wider to include horses that may carry further on the rain-slicked surface than you gave them credit for when you capped initially. Remember it typically takes just one BC race hit to make your day a profiable one...
Good luck and enjoy the Cup!
BREEDERS CUP -- MONMOUTH PARK (Day 2)
Superfectas in all.. Pre-Scratches..
1st: 26th Pegasus (Gr. III), 3yo, 9f (P5, P3, DD)
Best Value: #3 Slew's Tizzy 9-2: Aced LS Derby on loose surface..
Most Likely: #5 Now a Victor 5-1: Spots experience; Trombo usually tough with these..
Exotics Use: #7 Bwana Bull 2-1: H'dorfer Gr. III winner circling back..
Super Add: #6 Helsinki 7-2: Travers show shocker bred to love it wet..
2nd: 56th Miss Woodford, 3yo-F, 6f (P3)
Head-scratcher with well-matched bunch..
Best Value: #8 Marina Ballerina 15-1: Aquainted with Lezcano and mud..
Most Likely: #7 Sheets 4-1: Scored with Robby in wet CRC Gr. III..
Exotics Use: #11 Coco Belle 6-1: Moss homebred a wire threat under GoGo..
Super Add: #12 International Fever 12-1: 2x stake winner can utilize crown for stalking trip..
3rd: The Select, 3yo, 6 (P3)
Best Value: #9 Silver Source 10-1: Can attend pace and wet not an issue..
Most Likely: #2 SCR
Exotics Use: #7 Piratesonthelake 3-1: DiVitto adept with sprinters; Scored at KY Cup..
Super Add: #5 Unbridled Trust 20-1; #6 Double Action 7-2
4th: BC JUVENILE FILLIES (Gr. I), $2MM, 2yo-F, 8.5f (P4, P3)
Fascinating race and maybe the day's best wagering opportunity with a bit of everything signed on and 3-1 Indian Blessing a vulnerable favorite..
Best Value: #9 Smarty Deb 30-1: Ignore Emerald Downs resume and focus on Smart Strike pedigree with Harwood's 4/4 red who's improved with added ground and blasted boys last; Bred to excel in slop and cleverly arrived here three weeks ago to prepare for this; Fully capable of starting Cup Day 2 off with a bang.. 5th
Most Likely: #10 Proud Spell 5-1: Jones first caught eyes working with fair sex trio last year, and Cowboy Larry thinks Proud Citizen daughter is a rare one; Has shown rating gear building 3/3 career record one-turning, including Gr. II Matron, and gives every indication of thriving with intro to 2nd turn; Has drilled great, and while wet an unknown, believe this miss to the one to build around in tough heat.. 2nd
Exotics Use: #12 Grace Anatomy 10-1: O'Neill Alcibiades show pony arrives here as bit of a wiseguy horse after 'Street Sense '06-style' early move effort at KEE; Aldebaran-Storm Cat mare product should negotiate wet fine under new pilot Dettori, and merits consideration for any slot in superfecta; One more candidate in wide open affair.. 7th
Super Add: #8 Izarra 6-1: McAnally bay jumped forward in route debut and nearly caught Baffert pacesetter in Gr. I Oak Leaf, long a key race for BC Juvy gals; By Distorted Humor out of Broad Brush mare, may be best wet track candidate in race; Even with foe from Oak Leaf scratching, pace to chase seems assured; Big shot.. 10th
NOTES: #1 Phantom Income 30-1: Grey has been lauded by Violette since summer and righted ship at Swamp in NATC; Trainer/jock confident in two-turn aptitude (note slow 1m work 10/14) and price will be right; Live longshot.. #14 A to the Croft 10-1: Draw diminished appeal, but McPeek chestnut has GS runnered-up v. 3 top damsels, keeps Kent D. and adds blinks; For deep exotics..
5th: BC JUVENILE (Gr. I), $2MM, 2yo, 8.5f (P3)
Best Value: #1 Z Humor 12-1: Getting tired of watching Zayat runners score at will and Mott-Desormeaux railrunner may be next and at a square price; Interestingly adds blinks; will save all the ground and is bred perfectly for anticipated conditions.. 5th
Most Likely: #2 War Pass 5-2: Champagne winner not a productive BC Juvy prep angle of late, but Zito-LaPenta colt can reverse that trend making own luck on front end.. WON
Exotics Use: #7 Pyro 6-1: One of two Asmussens signed on (Kodiak Kowboy), Champagne runner-up was moving well late only to fall short of one above; Moved forward there, and though regression a concern on short turnaround, trainer has displayed ability to get them to hold form; More worried about traffic but bred well for off-going; Hard to exclude.. NOTE: Concerns surfacing of colt's readiness.. 2nd
Super Add: #9 Old Man Buck 20-1: First blush turf/poly player offers value as victim of circumstances regarding his placement; McPeek swears by Hold That Tiger red's main track aptitude, and wet may guild the lily for stalker-type that gets pilot upgrade in Bejarano; Blinkers part of surprise package candidate who is lone entrant making 3rd 8.5f start.. 6th
6th: BC F&M TURF (Gr. I), $2MM, F&M-3+, 11f-T (P6, P3)
Best Value: #9 Danzon 12-1: Royal Academy 4yo nearly stunned CD Turf Classic (Gr. I) field on Derby undercard on yielding soil; Merits consideration in top slots under Leparoux.. 10th
Most Likely: #4 PASSAGE OF TIME 7-2: Exits increasingly 'key' Prix Vermeille where third behind subsequent E.P. Taylor winner Mrs. Lindsey; Mastered off going as juvy and adds domestic rider familiar with course; Big edge.. 3rd
Exotics Use: #7 Argentina 12-1 Better than she looks despite not winning since getting green card; Frankel miss one of few here comfortable this trip; Overlay.. 9th
Super Add: #12 Precious Kitten 30-1 West Coast doll came East and was excellent runner up to Vacare in Gr. II First Lady; Soft and added ground both question marks, but will be in front turning for home at huge price; Eligible to stay on to boost tri/super.. 8th
7th: BC SPRINT (Gr. I), $2MM, 3+, 6f (P3)
Best Value: #6 Commentator 12-1: Outstanding when right and consistantly good fresh; Zito gelding perfect on off track and motivated rider takes reins.. 7th
Most Likely: #2 Midnight Lute 2-1: Sprint favorites rarely win, and this oversize Baffert beast has a lot going against him in this spot; Hate the cutback and fact he'll have to come from out of it, but is so immensely talented that he remains impossible to exclude or stand against as the likliest winner; Respect totally.. WON
Exotics Use: #1 Smokey Stover 7-2: Aleo and Gilchrist return to the Cup with another brilliant runner in this 4yo Put It Back gelding; Should sit ideal stalking trip behind speediest of speeds and try to swing out for homestretch attack; Visited here and set track record; Square price and honest chance for the whole thing.. 9th
Super Add: #4 Talent Search 15-1 Shuman red by Catienus may get overlooked and has been in BC Sprint winning area code all year; Beat modest lot when winning Teddy Drone this strip, but did it in under 1:09.0 earning 103 BSF; One of several with exotics designs.. 3rd
NOTES: Would not toss #5 Kelly's Landing (20-1) out of hand despite absense from starting gates leading up to this; Working well for spot and Dettori scored on this gelding in desert Cup; Certainly employable in exotics.. 5th
Early P4 Play:
4: 1-4-8-9-10-12
5: 1-2
6: 4
7: 1-2-4-6
6x2x1x4 = $48