View Full Version : BC: Spr; FMS; D-Mile (PP's/Odds)
Kasept
10-16-2007, 01:51 PM
Dirt Mile
10th (5:35) Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile S.
1 Mile 70 Yards | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
1 1 Discreet Cat Gomez G K bin Suroor Saeed 126 L 2-1
2 2 Lewis Michael Talamo J Catalano Wayne M 126 LA 6-1
3 3 Wanderin Boy Castellano J J Zito Nicholas P 126 L 8-1
4 4 Forefathers Hill C Mott William I 122 LA 20-1
5 5 High Finance Velazquez J R Violette, Jr. R A 126 LA 5-1
6 6 Gottcha Gold Lopez C C Plesa Edward Jr 126 L 8-1
7 7 Park Avenue Ball Bravo J Ryerson James T 126 LA 15-1
8 8 Corinthian Desormeaux K J Jerkens James A 126 L 7-2
9 9 Xchanger Dominguez R A Shuman Mark 122 LA 6-1
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Special Daily Double (Race 3) Dirt Mile / Turf Mile
Filly & Mare Sprint
8th (4:25) Breeders' Cup Filly and Mare Sprint S.
6 Furlongs | Fillies and Mares | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $1,000,000
1 1 Miss Macy Sue Razo E Jr Von Hemel Kelly 123 LA 6-1
2 2 Miraculous Miss Rose J Klesaris Steve 123 LA 15-1
3 3 Dream Rush Coa E M Violette, Jr. R A 120 LA 2-1
4 4 Maryfield Trujillo E O'Neill Doug 123 LA 15-1
5 5 Jazzy (ARG) Flores D R Hennig Mark 123 LA 20-1
6 6 Oprah Winney Gomez G K Dutrow, Jr. R E 123 L 6-1
7 7 La Traviata Leparoux J R Parisel Francois 120 L 5-2
8 8 Wild Gams Dominguez R A Perkins Ben W Jr 123 LA 10-1
9 9 Shaggy Mane Velasquez C Chatlos Donald Jr 123 L 12-1
10 10 Baroness Thatcher Desormeaux K J Parisel Francois 120 L 12-1
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) Special Daily Double (Race 1) FM Sprint / Sprint
Sprint
7th (2:35) TVG Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1)
6 Furlongs | Open | 3 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $2,000,000
1 1 Smokey Stover Gryder A T Gilchrist Greg 126 L 7-2
2 2 Midnight Lute Gomez G K Baffert Bob 126 LA 2-1
X X Attila's Storm SCR
4 4 Talent Search Fogelsonger R Shuman Mark 126 LA 15-1
5 5 Kelly's Landing Dettori L Kenneally Eddie 126 LA 20-1
6 6 Commentator Bravo J Zito Nicholas P 126 L 12-1
7 7 Idiot Proof Flores D R Sise Clifford Jr 123 L 10-1
8 8 Benny the Bull Guidry M Dutrow, Jr. R E 126 L 6-1
9 9 Bordonaro Migliore R Spawr Bill 126 LA 15-1
10 10 Greg's Gold Espinoza V Hofmans David 126 LA 9-2
11 11 Forefathers Desormeaux K J Mott William I 123 LA 20-1
Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Kasept
10-16-2007, 10:09 PM
No Surf Cat in the Dirt Mile.. or anywhere else.
Kasept
10-16-2007, 10:10 PM
La Traviata has cross-entered in the SPR and F&M SPR with the Saturday event as first preference...
Cannon Shell
10-16-2007, 10:24 PM
No Surf Cat in the Dirt Mile.. or anywhere else.
stunning..
blackthroatedwind
10-16-2007, 10:33 PM
stunning..
Headley only prefers surfaces his horses don't like....apparently.
No Surf Cat in the Dirt Mile.. or anywhere else.
He's done enough.
cakes44
10-17-2007, 06:20 AM
I think Surf Cat has run 3 races already this year. That is about his max.
NoChanceToDance
10-17-2007, 12:13 PM
Smokey Stover in the sprint.
AeWingnut
10-17-2007, 12:31 PM
whoever gets Corey Nakatani
I think I just saw the largest TG number ever. Midnight Lute with a -7 in his last race, what a monsterous performance
ArlJim78
10-17-2007, 09:13 PM
I think I just saw the largest TG number ever. Midnight Lute with a -7 in his last race, what a monsterous performance
i guess he is a bounce candidate then?
i guess he is a bounce candidate then?
I don't know, Byk was mentioning something today how he is a huge horse and they have problems over the track. That last race impressed me the day I watched it, there is something about cali sprinters that drive me nuts. But yeah, he should be a bounce candiate because that is such a huge improvement.
Cannon Shell
10-17-2007, 10:01 PM
How long until we see a -10? The scale is out of hand...
How long until we see a -10? The scale is out of hand...
He scaled back all numbers last year I think so that 7 would have been a 10 if he didn't scale it back. Horses are getting faster though.
Horses don't bounce. Especially off of a 2 month layoff.
So your saying that a huge effort doesn't effect horses?
Cannon Shell
10-17-2007, 10:05 PM
He scaled back all numbers last year I think so that 7 would have been a 10 if he didn't scale it back. Horses are getting faster though.
not that much...
not that much...
Personally, I like his numbers, ALOT. They have made me a better handicapper, just not recently. I do think that some numbers, especially the ones with 4w4w built in can be a little high but I go with them. If anything, they help me eliminate a horse like Tiago, which without TG's is a horse I would 'toss' in but because of TG's I am able to confidently eliminate him, he beats me, he beats me but I doubt it.
I am sure it happens sometimes, I just think it happens more infrequent than sheet users think. I feel like the "bounce" is just another excuse. The horse ran 2 months ago. How much could he be effected now? He's certainly well rested. If he gets beat, it will be because he is not good enough that day. Not because he ran a big race 8 weeks ago.
The horse is gigantic and because of this has problems with the gate and getting out of the gate. He breaks a step slow in a full field, he's probably done. That wouldn't be bouncing, it's racing luck, trip, pace, etc.
I agree that the bounce is overused. Maybe I should use regression instead because no one uses it. But regression is a VERY REAL thing when its comes to patterns, and figuring them out can help you play against a 4/5 horse that looks like he can't lose or toss a 'hot' horse because of his last couple.
Gauchos0522
10-17-2007, 10:21 PM
I am sure it happens sometimes, I just think it happens more infrequent than sheet users think. I feel like the "bounce" is just another excuse. The horse ran 2 months ago. How much could he be effected now? He's certainly well rested. If he gets beat, it will be because he is not good enough that day. Not because he ran a big race 8 weeks ago.
The horse is gigantic and because of this has problems with the gate and getting out of the gate. He breaks a step slow in a full field, he's probably done. That wouldn't be bouncing, it's racing luck, trip, pace, etc.
Couldn't agree more. I've seen more "bounces" happen due to those 2 especially the latter that I find it hard to believe a horse coming off two months rest to be a canidate to run badly because of that previous effort.
Cannon Shell
10-17-2007, 10:36 PM
I asked a guy who uses sheets to claim horses a question last fall when outside horses were winning everything at Keeneland (you couldnt be too wide). What about all the ground lost in these poly races where the inside is horrible and the horses will be getting numbers higher than they should because of the way the track plays? He laughed and said turn the sheet upside down on the poly.
In the Sprint, I agree Baffert's horse put in a monster race last out. However, I think this could possibly be a very different animal going 6 rather than 7. If he walks over the field by open lengths, so be it. Wouldn't be the first time I am wrong at the track, LOL.
I am the first to admit that I am biased, but I am pulling for Smokey Stover.
Eric
King Glorious
10-18-2007, 02:04 PM
Personally, I like his numbers, ALOT. They have made me a better handicapper, just not recently. I do think that some numbers, especially the ones with 4w4w built in can be a little high but I go with them. If anything, they help me eliminate a horse like Tiago, which without TG's is a horse I would 'toss' in but because of TG's I am able to confidently eliminate him, he beats me, he beats me but I doubt it.
Is anyone old enough to remember when people used to watch races and read the form and decide for themselves whether or not they wanted to include a horse in their wagering? Personally, you saw Tiago and you liked him and would have added him but because someone else's analysis tells you not to, you won't now? Sounds like you don't have much confidence in your own ability to decipher what you see.
Is anyone old enough to remember when people used to watch races and read the form and decide for themselves whether or not they wanted to include a horse in their wagering? Personally, you saw Tiago and you liked him and would have added him but because someone else's analysis tells you not to, you won't now? Sounds like you don't have much confidence in your own ability to decipher what you see.
I have plenty of confidence, matter of fact, that is a big flaw in my game because i still haven't hammered the fact in my head that you lose more then you win in this game as far as tickets. And I am not going off someone else's analysis(I refuse to listen to anyone when they give me a horse), I am going off the pattern that I am reading on trusted information, that I have SEEN improve my hits and improve my handicapping. It is no different then trusting what you see in the DRF.
King Glorious
10-18-2007, 02:45 PM
I have plenty of confidence, matter of fact, that is a big flaw in my game because i still haven't hammered the fact in my head that you lose more then you win in this game as far as tickets. And I am not going off someone else's analysis(I refuse to listen to anyone when they give me a horse), I am going off the pattern that I am reading on trusted information, that I have SEEN improve my hits and improve my handicapping. It is no different then trusting what you see in the DRF.
It's very different, unless you are referring to the Beyers. If you are just looking at the racing lines of the horses, you aren't looking at anyone's opinions at all. I complete understand using other sources (Beyers, TG numbers, etc) in addition to your own handicapping but it just seemed a little strange to me to read that there was a horse that you would have played but because someone's system says you shouldn't, you won't. Sticking with Tiago, I wouldn't care if the Beyers said he ran a 135 in the Swaps and a 140 in the Goodwood......I saw those two races. I wouldn't include him under any circumstances whatsoever. Likewise, if I liked him, I wouldn't care if he had earned a 50 and a 60 in his last two.
brianwspencer
10-18-2007, 03:04 PM
Sticking with Tiago, I wouldn't care if the Beyers said he ran a 135 in the Swaps and a 140 in the Goodwood......I saw those two races. I wouldn't include him under any circumstances whatsoever. Likewise, if I liked him, I wouldn't care if he had earned a 50 and a 60 in his last two.
Obviously, your example doesn't work. If he had run a 135 & 140, you'd have seen two very different races.
It really wouldn't matter to you one iota if a horse had run his last two Beyers that suggested he was nearly 20 lengths faster than the rest of the field, or if that same horse was coming into the race running numbers that would get him beat by 20-30 lengths?
You'd stick with the "I like this horse angle?"
And you're criticizing how Scav comes to a decision?
Crikey.
King Glorious
10-18-2007, 03:26 PM
Obviously, your example doesn't work. If he had run a 135 & 140, you'd have seen two very different races.
It really wouldn't matter to you one iota if a horse had run his last two Beyers that suggested he was nearly 20 lengths faster than the rest of the field, or if that same horse was coming into the race running numbers that would get him beat by 20-30 lengths?
You'd stick with the "I like this horse angle?"
And you're criticizing how Scav comes to a decision?
Crikey.
Not criticizing him at all. I'm certainly no better at this than he or anyone else is. Just asking at what point does trusting your own handicapping ability stop and taking the word of someone else's system take over? If Tiago was running off and hiding from fields by 20 lengths and setting track records in the process of earning those 130's, that would be different. But if after watching him struggle to beat Awesome Gem and knowing what Awesome Gem is, if the number came back really high, I would take it with a grain of salt. I'd do the same thing if I watched Curlin beat Lawyer Ron in the JCGC and the number came back with a 105. The numbers are just based on one man's system of how to judge the races. Not saying that the system is good or bad but it shouldn't take the place of your own handicapping. If your handicapping tells you that you like a horse, don't let someone else tell you that you don't.
Look at the Sprint. I love Midnight Lute. Always have. But I don't like him to win the Sprint, even though by the numbers, he far and away towers over the field. I believe that after his 124 figure, the next highest in the field is a 113 from Idiot Proof. That's a huge advantage. But that advantage won't make me take what I've seen with my own eyes and play a horse that I don't like to win the race.
Slewbopper
10-18-2007, 05:48 PM
If BSFs were not part of the PPs, like in the past, Midnight Lute's 124 would really not stick out. That number and Baffert working him in 9 and change wll make him the fave in the Sprint. I am going with the Idiot. Ran a full second faster than Monmouth specialist Joey P did a race earlier on the same card. And since he is a 3 yo, I think he should be improving.
SentToStud
10-18-2007, 06:43 PM
just 3 favorites have won the BC sprint off preps in NY. 15 BCS favorite have prepped at NY. That's 15 of 22, as there were 2 years with no NY prepped horses in the race.
on the other hand, nine BC Sprint winners total have prepped in NY.
If you take a NY chalk in the BC Sprint, you are going to pay a premium.
ArlJim78
10-18-2007, 07:33 PM
If BSFs were not part of the PPs, like in the past, Midnight Lute's 124 would really not stick out. That number and Baffert working him in 9 and change wll make him the fave in the Sprint. I am going with the Idiot. Ran a full second faster than Monmouth specialist Joey P did a race earlier on the same card. And since he is a 3 yo, I think he should be improving.
he may be improving, but the way i look at it is without that one Monmouth race Idiot Proof would not even be considered a contender, so to me there is nothing in the way of confirmation that he is good enough to win this, or that its likely he'll run back to something close to that race. I hate to pick one race out of the PP's and base everything on it, especially a weak looking GR3.
In the Ancient Title Gregs Gold was much the best and Idiot Proof was less than a length in front of Barbeque Eddie, who has only a maiden win to his credit. you may say that he didn't like the cushion track but the fact remains that the beyer from that race was better than all of his dirt beyers save for the Monmouth romp. imo he's not a win candidate.
NoChanceToDance
10-19-2007, 09:23 AM
Everything is fine with Silent Kitty.
There had been rumours that all was not well with him, so i got onto a friend who works in America for Godolphin and he said all is well with him. He sat on him a few days ago and he seemed in very good form with himself.
Having said that, this is what he told me before his last start.
NoChanceToDance
10-19-2007, 01:17 PM
People wanting to bet Discreet Cat for the dirt mile were given a boost today when Godolphin confirmed that Frankie Dettori wouldn't be taking the ride on him.
zippyneedsawin
10-19-2007, 01:24 PM
In the Sprint, I agree Baffert's horse put in a monster race last out. However, I think this could possibly be a very different animal going 6 rather than 7. If he walks over the field by open lengths, so be it. Wouldn't be the first time I am wrong at the track, LOL.
I am the first to admit that I am biased, but I am pulling for Smokey Stover.
Eric
I think you're on to something here. Especially considering his running style. Other horses (near the lead) can hang on for the win at 6 furlongs.. it's the 7th one that costs them against Midnight Lute. I also think his running style isn't the best for the Monmouth track. I'm looking more at Smokey Stover or Greg's Gold.
eajinabi
10-20-2007, 02:17 AM
I am going with the speed of the speed in Mach Ride
robfla
10-20-2007, 03:27 AM
I am going with the speed of the speed in Mach Ride
I dont see any way that Mach Ride makes the early lead in this race. There are at least 4 or 5 other horses way faster early.
- Attila's Storm is ALWAYS sent and might be the first to 3f
- Bordonaro
- Commentator
- Idiot Proof
_ La Traviata
Heck, the whole field might be faster than Mach Ride early. I have seen most of his races, being Calder is my home track, and I realize the addition of blinkers has done wonders, but he is overmatched IMO. Maybe he can pick up the pieces for third or fourth.
2Hot4TV
10-20-2007, 08:48 AM
I will be rooting for Smokey Stover, I like the lighting bolt blaze he has.
geeker2
10-20-2007, 09:28 AM
Bordonaro, Fred Carrillo , Daniel A. Cassella, William Spawr, Fred Carrillo & Daniel A Cassella
They must have relatives in Oceanport...he gets my vote for finishing last.
geeker2
10-20-2007, 09:48 AM
I am going with the speed of the speed in Mach Ride
Mach ride is out of the Sprint..
eajinabi
10-21-2007, 01:43 AM
Mach ride is out of the Sprint..
Damn!
Kasept
10-21-2007, 04:26 AM
http://www.drf.com/news/article/89624.html
Bad hoof.. Tough break for Steve Standridge.
Also.. Gomez gets Midnight Lute; Bravo, Commentator..
Kasept
10-22-2007, 03:32 AM
Baroness Thatcher FM Sprint Keeneland 4 furlongs 46:60
Dream Rush FM Sprint Aqueduct 4 furlongs 47:96
Oprah Winney FM Sprint Aqueduct 5 furlongs 59:45
Jazzy (ARG) FM Sprint Belmont Park 4 furlongs 48:45
Maryfield FM Sprint Hollywood Park 4 furlongs 46:00
Shaggy Mane FM Sprint Hollywood Park 4 furlongs 47:60
Corinthian Dirt Mile Belmont Park 6 furlongs 1.11:75
Wanderin Boy Dirt Mile Saratoga 4 furlongs 46:95
Discreet Cat Dirt Mile Belmont Park 5 furlongs 57:46
High Finance Dirt Mile Aqueduct 4 furlongs 48:65
Greg's Gold Sprint Santa Anita 6 furlongs 1.10:80
Bordonaro Sprint Santa Anita 5 furlongs 58:80
Commentator Sprint/Dirt Mile Saratoga 4 furlongs 46:92
Kelly's Landing Sprint Keeneland 5 furlongs 59:00
Idiot Proof Sprint Monmouth Park 5 furlongs 1.00:80
In Summation Sprint Belmont Park 5 furlongs 1.00:10
Talent Search Sprint Fair Hill 4 furlongs 46:80
The Bid
10-22-2007, 10:02 AM
Only 2 horses can win. Benny the Bull or Smokey Stover
Only 2 horses can win. Benny the Bull or Smokey Stover
While I like both of those horses, if Commentator pops like he does with rest (three -5's off extended rests) he has a hell of a shot.
ArlJim78
10-22-2007, 10:20 PM
While I like both of those horses, if Commentator pops like he does with rest (three -5's off extended rests) he has a hell of a shot.
off the board, this is not the kind of field or distance that he can pop with a negative 5.
the key for commentator is simple, if he can clear off easily at the first call, he's golden. if not, well he's never passed anyone. i don't see him easily clearing off against this field.
docicu3
10-22-2007, 10:34 PM
Who is going to ride Park Avenue Ball in the dirt mile. Is it possible that this may be Joe Bravo's only mount in a BC event all weekend?? Talk about sentimental favorites.....the horse and the jock.....would pay decently if they won the race!!
Hickory Hill Hoff
10-23-2007, 06:58 AM
La Traviata.....connections decided to keep her versus her own sex
good idea.....showdown now between her & Wild Rush, who gets the lead between these two?
whodey17
10-23-2007, 05:13 PM
Shaggy Mane is pretty quick as well. I think a lot depends on the post draw. But personally I don't think Dream Rush is as quick early as the other two. If La Traviata draws outside of Shaggy Mane I think she is long gone.Shaggy Mane definately gets the lead here. I also like the fact that La Traviata has a race over the Monmouth surface. And that race on 8/25 was very very good. However, Dream Rush has two Grade I wins.
The Bid
10-23-2007, 05:27 PM
La Traviata gets a ham sandwich
Commentator couldnt get away from Talent Search with a head start
fpsoxfan
10-23-2007, 06:20 PM
What's the story behind Shaggy Mane? CA invader? Multilpe owners.
stonegossard
10-23-2007, 07:18 PM
As fun as it sounds, I'll have to take a pass.
Why do you even bother with jag offs like this Whodey idiot. Besides being the master of the obvious, he is a Grade I prick.
Anyways....back to the race....Shaggy Mane has zero shot.....Will most likely get cooked with Dream Rush and La Traviata who both are need the lead types..... I think the horses to look at here are Wild Gams....Maryfield...and even Miraculous Miss isnt impossible here if the pace is hot.
Extremely speed favoring track for sprints, yet the field is loaded with early speed types. If pace makes the race,this would bode well for favorite Midnight Lute. However, I don't like the lack of progression that led to Lute's last speed fig. Don't want to cal it a bounce, I just doubt that fig will be replicated. Lute has never run on an off track, and I consider sire Real Quiet to be a non-lover of off tracks
So, I have to take a stand against Midnight Lute, and will side with Commentator,if the track is indeed wet. 3-3 on off tracks is no coincidence, as the horse is sired by Distorted Humor.
The Dirt Mile(on Friday): Wow! Dubai Jinx for Discreet Cat last out or what?
Enough superstition, though, this looks like a bad field and I'll not go against Discreet Cat here. Will investigate the pick 3 and DD that conclude with this race
Filly and Mare Sprint;I'll side with La Traviata. This is the 8th race on Friday, Discreet Cat should dominate the 10th. This makes the 9th race, the Juvenile Turf, a race I can really go deeper in the Pick 3
The Bid
10-25-2007, 12:57 AM
Stone, I think Wild Gam has a huge shot, think she will win, my bet.
stonegossard
10-25-2007, 03:02 PM
Stone, I think Wild Gam has a huge shot, think she will win, my bet.
I agree......but this weather situation is gonna change things.
my miss storm cat
10-26-2007, 12:03 PM
Forefathers scratched.....
http://www.drf.com/news/article/89817.html
jwkniska
10-26-2007, 01:22 PM
with it being sloppy, I'm taking a flier on a 3-3 winner on slop for the Sprint. I'll take Commentator (might not be the best horse, but proven winner on slop).
otisotisotis
10-27-2007, 12:05 AM
greg's gold will man up
all of those long, long layoffs
will doom all the rest!
Some bounce there by Midnight Lute. Bounced right back into the winner's circle.
Yeah, I'll say. You are right about that. Second most impressive performance of the day in my mind. If they keep this horse sound, healthy, etc., who knows. He certainly looks like he has the talent.
Eric
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