SA C/O Contest: Cassie, AJ go 5/6!

[Kasept]

Wednesday's carry at Santa Anita looks murderous, but I'm sure the intrepid are ready to take a shot... Pool sure to reach $2.5MM...

Urge those entering to try Crist-style multiple ticket approach to capitalize on the objective of these exersizes: improving our approach to the big P6 pots...

Sunday's Belmont carry was an example of how the A-B-C-X ranking and construction can work. Genuine Devotion (5-2), Melissa Jo (3-1) and Pick Six (6-1) were all horses that in my view were "A's", and the three were "Most Likely" (Melissa & Six) or "Best Value" in the case of Devotion in the Selections.. I didn't care for Sew Slippery (4-1) and Acclimate (3-1), but they obviously could have been an "A" or "B" or many people's plays.

That leaves Shapira (8.50-1) as the lone price in the sequence. Those utilizing a multiple ticket approach might have had the 5 winners as "A" plays on the backup tick, and in all liklihood have included the Mott-Castro runner (Shapira) on that 9th race that featured your "C's".

For those that aren't familiar:


1.) Rank horses in each race:

A=Must use
B=Serious consider
C=Outsider with chance
X=Tossouts


2.) Structure main ticket featuring your A & B horses (Example):

Leg A: AAB
Leg B: AB
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: AB
Leg F: AABB

3x2x1x2x2x4 = 96 x $2 = $192


3.) Structure 6 backups featuring your A's, dropping B's, adding C's:


Backup 1 with Leg A "C's"

Leg A: CC
Leg B: A
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: A
Leg F: AA

2x1x1x2x1x2 = 8 x $2 = $16


Backup 2 with Leg B "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: CCC
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: A
Leg F: AA

2x3x1x2x1x2 = 24 x $2 = $48


Backup 3 with Leg C "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: A
Leg C: CC
Leg D: AA
Leg E: A
Leg F: AA

2x1x2x2x1x2 = 16 x $2 = $32


Backup 4 with Leg D "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: A
Leg C: A
Leg D: CCCC
Leg E: A
Leg F: AA

2x1x1x4x1x2 = 16 x $2 = $32


Backup 5 with Leg E "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: A
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: CC
Leg F: AA

2x1x1x2x2x2 = 16 x $2 = $32


Backup 6 with Leg F "C's"

Leg A: AA
Leg B: A
Leg C: A
Leg D: AA
Leg E: A
Leg F: CCC

2x1x1x2x1x3 = 12 x $2 = $24


Total play:

Main: $192
Back1: $16
Back2: $48
Back3: $32
Back4: $32
Back5: $32
Back6: $24

Total: $376

What you're doing is trying to limit your wasteful combinations. (Wasteful in that every horse you use in a "main" ticket.. that you're putting in that has less than a reasonable win chance.. is driving the cost of the ticket up by the multiples involved.) By placing thos horses in isolated backup tickets, you're maximizing your investment by focusing the "main" ticket on the ones with the best opportunity to win in your opinion. The backups are there to cover you in the isolated case where your opinion is correct in all but one of the races.. as might have been the case Sunday with Shapira had those other five winners been on your "main" play...

(If you have questions, feel free to ask in the Contest thread. I'll try to answer as best I can, and perhaps BTW can jump in as well. Visit the original P6 Symposium Threads in the Hatton Reading Room for expanded discusion of the concept and commentary from Andy..
http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/showthread.php?t=9062)

[TheSpyder]

Steve,

What's are bankroll for the contest? Also, did you see my PM?

Thanks,

Spyder

[Kasept]

Steve, What's are bankroll for the contest? Also, did you see my PM?

Thanks, Spyder
Let's make this another $2,500 bankroll.. It's a very tough sequence... (And I saw PM and will respond.. In short, very cool!)

[Bigsmc]

I'm sure the intrepid are ready to take a shot...



That's me (had to look it up though)...

[zippyneedsawin]

After reading the Crist book (thanks Steve!), he(Crist) makes a very compelling case to use the multi-ticket method. I plan on implementing it in the near future (like maybe this contest), just didn't have time when putting together the Belmont ticket. --Anyone who hasn't read that book should review Kasept's "cliff notes" on the multi-ticket fomulations, it's certainly worthy of consideration and every handicapper should keep an open mind on other wagering ideas.

[pmacdaddy]

With $2,500 a multiple ticket approach is definitely in the cards.


Tried to take multiple ticket approach at BEL, but ultimately opted for a. "cave man" ticket. Very surprising how quick $800 goes when putting an AB ticket together....

[Max Caidy]

Just a thought from a handicapping moron...

As a novice "capper" I steer away from P4 - P6. I read Crist's book and understand the concept. The problem is correctly categorizing the horses into A,B,C,X.

I'm a DT and ATRB addict as I find this to be the best horse racing info available anywhere. I'll continue to read/listen and hopefully be able use this logic in the future.

[Bigsmc]

Just a thought from a handicapping moron...

As a novice "capper" I steer away from P4 - P6. I read Crist's book and understand the concept. The problem is correctly categorizing the horses into A,B,C,X.

I'm a DT and ATRB addict as I find this to be the best horse racing info available anywhere. I'll continue to read/listen and hopefully be able use this logic in the future.

Max C.,

This is the perfect opportunity to give it a whirl. Doesn't cost anything and going through the exercise of categorizing the horses and putting the tickets together can only help you in your future handicapping. It's also a lot of fun.

Spend the mythical $2,500 and you will learn a ton.

Good luck.

[pmacdaddy]

Yeah Max. Don't cost nothin....

Just make sure to check all the winners versus your grades. If any of your X's come in, go back and see if there was something you missed.

Also, don't feel bad using some other people here's picks as a second check after you are done with your initial tickets. . Ofen opens my eyes to an angle I may have missed.

Good Luck!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Well,I think people need to take into account that g d plastic rail is gunna be out tomorrow (in that 5th race.) I think you best not overlook that horse on the rail(Dr Zaentz.) His form and style look a lot like his full sister's form(Mean Heat) before she got on the grass.She showed good turn of foot on the lawn at Del Mar.

22.54, 46.09, 1:10.67, 1:22.71, 1:34.90

This horse has a good tactical move that he showed last time(don't depend on him stopping on turf,)and with those rails out,he may be sprinting for that wire.If he is like his sister,then the others won't be able to make any mistakes.Obviously,the other Heat horse,the Frankel,and the Drysdale,all make sense.I don't see why the Hofmans horse doesn't have a good chance,but he has been lil chilly.I think most people are gunna cut this 1 horse out of their tickets,and I think that is the one thing I wouldn't do.Not with the rails out.I can easily see this horse getting 1st move on the 3 top choices.

[philcski]

Well,I think people need to take into account that g d plastic rail is gunna be out tomorrow (in that 5th race.) I think you best not overlook that horse on the rail(Dr Zaentz.) His form and style look a lot like his full sister's form(Mean Heat) before she got on the grass.She showed good turn of foot on the lawn at Del Mar.

22.54, 46.09, 1:10.67, 1:22.71, 1:34.90

This horse has a good tactical move that he showed last time(don't depend on him stopping on turf,)and with those rails out,he may be sprinting for that wire.If he is like his sister,then the others won't be able to make any mistakes.Obviously,the other Heat horse,the Frankel,and the Drysdale,all make sense.I don't see why the Hofmans horse doesn't have a good chance,but he has been lil chilly.I think most people are gunna cut this 1 horse out of their tickets,and I think that is the one thing I wouldn't do.Not with the rails out.I can easily see this horse getting 1st move on the 3 top choices.

Agree 100%, if you watch the replay of their last (the 1 & 8), the 8 is a toss. The 1 becomes a must use in some fashion. I expect an improved effort out of Frankel's runner + the 5, Dynaformer going sprint to route & turf. I think using the 1,3,5 should be enough.

[ryonker]

Let the games begin......

Oak Tree Race 3-8
2,5,7/1,4,9/1,3,8/2,8,12/4,6,8/1,6,9 $1,458
3,4/4,9/3,8/2,12/4,8/1,6 $128
2,5/2,3,6/3,8/2,12/4,8/1,6 $192
2,5/4,9/5,7/2,12/4,8/1,6 $128
2,5/4,9/3,8/7,10/4,8/1,6 $128
2,5/4,9/3,8/2,12/1,3,7/1,6 $192
2,5/4,9/3,8/2,12/4,8/3,5,10,11 $256
total= $2,482

thanks
Ron

[dylbert]

2,7 // 3,4,9 // 3,8 // 2,7,8,12 // 2,4,7 // 1,5,11

2,4,5 // 4,6,7,9 // 1,7,8 // 2,7,8 // 3,6,7 // 5,11

4,7 // 3,7 // 1,3 // 2,7,12 // 2,4 // 1,11

2 // 4,9 // 8 // ALL // 7 // 5,11

7 // 3 // 3 // ALL // 2,4 // 1

Good Luck to All -- both virtual & real tickets tomorrow!

[declansharbor]

2,4,5,7 // 3,4,7 // 3,8 // 1,3,5,8 // 2,3,7,12 // 4 // 1,3,8

5 // 3,4 // 1,3, // 4,12 // 1,7 // 1

2,5,6 // 1,3,4,7 // 1,7 // 2 // 1 // 3

5 // 1,4,7,10 // 1,2 // 2,6 // 7 // 6

2 // 4 // 1,5,8 // 3,7,8,9 // 5,8 // 1

3,5 // 2,3,4 // 3 // 11 // 1 // 3,7,10

2494 $ total. Best of Luck to those actually playing this c/o.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

In the last race,it's obviously an open race.The only thing I really notice that can help anyone is concerning Foxy Lady.She didn't like the turns at Fairplex,but she ran very well during the other parts of the race.That is a definite 2 turn filly.She seems to like to run on the inside(it's just that she was too dumb to make the 1st 2 turns.The last one,she seemed to do o.k. on.She is better than the 11 length deficit that she lost by.

[3kings]

I'll take a quick stab at this:

R3 2,3,6
R4 3,4,9
R5 1,3,5
R6 2,6,7,10
R7 4,7
R8 1,3,4,5

3X3X3X4X2X4=1064X$2=$2128

Good luck everyone

[golfer]

R 3: 4,5,7

R 4: 2,3,4,9,10

R 5: 2,3,8

R 6: 3,7,8

R 7: 3,4,7

R 8: 1,3,6 (#5 scratched, replacing with #1)
$2430

(also, I like the 6 horse in the 1st race, Extreme Notice)

[Heels1989]

I'll take a quick pick please.;)

Only half kidding. Not much time to take a hard look.

R3 2/4/5/7
R4 2/3/4/9
R5 3/5/7/9
R6 2/12
R7 1/4/7
R8 1/3/5

$2,304

good luck to all

[ArlJim78]

Caspiano is a single for me in the fourth. I just think he is more talented than this bunch and should probably not be running for a tag. in his debut against MSW's he finished well when the winner was Barbeque Eddie who was clear by 4.5 lengths. Barbeque Eddie came back to run third in the Ancient Title! The third place finisher from the debut race, Their He Goes, came back to beat MSW's going down the hill and looking very good. Caspiano went up to Fairplex to break his maiden and was much the best taking pace pressure from 3-4 different horses around both turns and he finished with something in reserve and won easily, two good interim works since that. Like I said he just seems better than your typical N2L group. So....

5 6 7 / 9 / 1 3 5 8 / 2 5 7 8 / 4 6 7 8 / 1 5 6 7 10 11 $2,304
2 / 9 / 1 3 5 8 / 2 5 7 8 / 7 / 1 5 6 7 10 11 $192
$2,496 total

[pmacdaddy]

Key scratched brutalized me... Here is second try.

Main Ticket (A,B)

R3 - 2,4,5,6,7
R4 - 2,3,4
R5 - 1,3,5,7
R6 - 2,3,7,10,12
R7 - 4
R8 - 6,10

$1,200


C Covers

2,5,7 / 2,3,4 / 8 / 2,7,10,12 / 4 / 6,10
$144

2,5,7 / 2,3,4 / 1,3,7 / 8 / 4 / 6,10
$108

2,5,7 / 2,3,4 / 1,3,7 / 2,7,10,12 / 7,8 / 6,10
$864

2,5,7 / 2,3,4 / 1,3,7 / 2 / 4 / 1,3,11
$162

GRAND TOTAL $2,478

[TheSpyder]

2,5/4,3/3,5/6,12/4,6/6,11 $128

4/4,3/3,5/6,12/4,6/6,11 $64

2,5/4,3/7/6,12/4,6/6,11 $64

2,5/4,3/3,5/6,12/4,6/10,12 $128

4/4,3/7/6,12/1,8/10,12 $32

All/all/3/6,12/4/6,10,11,12 $1120 Changes dur to scratches

[Bigsmc]

Main Ticket:

3 - 2,5,7
4 - 2,3,4,9
5 - 3,5,7
6 - 2,8,10,12
7 - 1,3,4,8
8 - 6,10

$2,304

Covers:

4//4,9//3,5//12//1,8//6,10 = $32
2,7//10//3,5//12//1,8//6,10 = $32
2,7//4,9//3,5//3//1,8//6,10 = $64
2,7//4,9//3,5//12//2,6//6,10 = $64

Total: $2,496
GL to all.

[dellinger63]

OK I'll give it a try with the recomended method

Main 2,3,4,5,6/3,7,10/1,3,5,8/2,3/1,3,7,8/1,6 = $1,556

Backup 1/3,10/1,5/2,3/3,7/1,6 = $64

Backup 2,5/1,2,7/1,5/2,3/3,7/1,6 = $192

Backup 2,5/3,10/2/2,3/3,7/1,6 = $$64

Backup 2,5/3,10/1,5/7,8,10/3,7/1,6 = $192

Backup 2,5/3,10/1,5/2,3/2/1,6 = $$64

Backup 2,5/3,10/1,5/2,3/3,7/7,9,10 = $192

Total = $2,224

edited following Caspiano and Terrajaz scratches

[cassie]

3rd 2,4,5,7,
4th 3,9
5th1,3,5
6th 2,3,7,12
7th 1,4,8
8th 1,6,10,11
$2,304

[zippyneedsawin]

2,3,5,7/3,4,6,7,9/3/2,8,12/,1,3,4,6,8/1,5,6,7 = $2,400

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

2/5 with 10/2 with 3/5 with 2/8/9/12 with 6/8/3 with all 1-11 =2,112:eek:

[NTamm1215]

Here's a crack at it:

2,4,5 / 2,3,4 / 1,3 / 2,8,12 / 4,8 / 1,3,11 ($648)

7 / 2,3,4 / 1,3 / 2,8,12 / 4,8 / 1,3,11 ($216)

2,4,5 / 1 / 1,3 / 2,8,12 / 4,8 / 1,3,11 ($216)

2,4,5 / 2,3,4 / 8 / 2,8,12 / 4,8 / 1,3,11 ($324)

2,4,5 / 2,3,4 / 1,3 / 9 / 4,8 / 1,3,11 ($216)

2,4,5 / 2,3,4 / 1,3 / 2,8,12 / 1 / 1,3,11 ($324)

2,4,5 / 2,3,4 / 1,3 / 2,8,12 / 4,8 / 6 ($216)

2,4,5 / 1 / 8 / 2,8,12 / 4,8 / 1,3,11 ($108)

2,4,5 / 1 / 1,3 / 9 / 4,8 / 1,3,11 ($72)

2,4,5 / 2,3,4 / 8 / 9 / 4,8 / 1,3,11 ($108)

Should keep me under the $2,500

Good luck to all!

NT

[ArlJim78]

Caspiano is a single for me in the fourth. I just think he is more talented than this bunch and should probably not be running for a tag. in his debut against MSW's he finished well when the winner was Barbeque Eddie who was clear by 4.5 lengths. Barbeque Eddie came back to run third in the Ancient Title! The third place finisher from the debut race, Their He Goes, came back to beat MSW's going down the hill and looking very good. Caspiano went up to Fairplex to break his maiden and was much the best taking pace pressure from 3-4 different horses around both turns and he finished with something in reserve and won easily, two good interim works since that. Like I said he just seems better than your typical N2L group. So....

5 6 7 / 9 / 1 3 5 8 / 2 5 7 8 / 4 6 7 8 / 1 5 6 7 10 11 $2,304
2 / 9 / 1 3 5 8 / 2 5 7 8 / 7 / 1 5 6 7 10 11 $192
$2,496 total
i'm not surprised at all that they scratched Caspiano, but it blows my tickets out of the water cause he was my single.
here are my revised plays after scratches.

5 7 / 1 2 3 / 1 3 5 8 / 2 7 8 / 4 7 8 / 1 6 7 10 11 $2,160
2 / 1 3 / 1 3 5 8 / 2 5 7 8 / 7 / 1 6 7 10 11 $320
$2,480 total

[Rootdog1]

Race 3
1 Refusal
3 Island Launch
4 Smoocher
7 Dr. Einstein

Race 4
2 Ready Say Go
3 Catch That Thief
4 Shootist
6 Shakin Jake

Race 5
3 Left Unsaid
7 Chevin
8 Guts

Race 6
1 Flying Bearcat
7 Currency Trader
11 McNasty
12 Zayed

Race 7
4 Big Bertha
7 Gothic Beauty
8 Cathrines Hope

Race 8
6 Dances with Tigers
10 Namirah

$2,304

2nd ticket
3)5,7
4)2,6
5)3,8
6)2,7,11
7)7,8
8)6,11
$192

[infield_line]

I know I'm supposed to do multiple tickets, but Steve Martin's Pick 6 Pro came up with 40 separate tickets for these picks so just all together. Under $2,000 bucks is what the program came up with

2,4,5/9,2,7/8,7,1,3/2,12,8/4,3,8/1,3,6



I/L

[Darrrr7]

Here is my ticket:

3rd 2/5/7
4th 2/3/4/7
5th 3/5/7
6th 2/7/11/12
7th 1/3/4/7
8th 6/11

$2304.00

[zippyneedsawin]

2,3,5,7/3,4,6,7,9/3/2,8,12/,1,3,4,6,8/1,5,6,7 = $2,400
ticket change per scratches:


2,3,5,7/3,4,6,7,9/3/2,8,12/1,3,4,8/1,3,6,7,11=$2,400

[Bigsmc]

i'm not surprised at all that they scratched Caspiano, but it blows my tickets out of the water cause he was my single.
here are my revised plays after scratches.

5 7 / 1 2 3 / 1 3 5 8 / 2 7 8 / 4 7 8 / 1 6 7 10 11 $2,160
2 / 1 3 / 1 3 5 8 / 2 5 7 8 / 7 / 1 6 7 10 11 $320
$2,480 total

I was going to single Caspiano on the ticket I was going to play with my money. Now, I have a mess on my hands and not much time to restructure.

[ArlJim78]

I was going to single Caspiano on the ticket I was going to play with my money. Now, I have a mess on my hands and not much time to restructure.
me too, now there will be no pk6 ticket with my money. pk4's and 5's only today.

frankly I was surprised that they would offer up that horse for 25K.

[viscount26]

Okay, here's my stab

2-3-4/2-3-4-8/1-7-8/1-5-7-12/1-3-4/3-10 $2,304

[djw]

I read every day, but never play, so what the heck, I thought I should try and get in with my novice skils:

Ticket #1:
4 5 7
2 3 6
3 7 8
2 3 7 11 12
7 8
1 6 7 11

$2160

Ticket #2
1 4 5
2 6
1 3
1 2
7 8
6 7 11

Can't tell you how interesting it is when there is a great, lively discussion with facts and opinions thrown in. I have learned so much. Hope Sumwon is enjoying her vacation, and that level 2 &3 of the stables bring half as much fun to those of us following in Cyberspace.

Steve,
Thanks for everything you do for those you have met, and those who will probably never cross paths with you, even in scenic Ozone Park or Elmont!!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

all/1,4/1,3/2,8,11/all/1,11=$2,016



real life=$216

Leg 1: 2,5,7
Leg 2: 1,4
Leg 3: 1,3
Leg 4: 2,8,11
Leg 5: 3,4,7
Leg 6: 1

[Scav]

I am only doing this because my friend is bugging me for a DT shirt, after he used to make fun of me constantly for being in an online community.

3: 2,3,4,5,7
4: 1,2,3,4
5: 1,8
6: 2,3,7,8,10,11,12
7: 4,8
8: 3,6

$2,240

[2 Dollar Bill]

Going on the cheap here....lol

race 3....4,5
race 4....3
race 5....5
race 6....7,11
race 7....4,5,7
race 8....6

should be a grand total of $ 24.00

[Coach Pants]

2,5
1,4
3,8
2,7,8,9
1,7
3,10
$256

[PeteMugg]

3: 1,2
4: 3,4,10
5: 1,3,4,7,8
6: 1,2,12
7: 1,4,7
8: 1,6,11

2x3x5x3x3x3x$2= $1620

3: 2,7
4: 4,3,10
5: 3,4,5
6: 1,2,12
7: 1,7
8: 6,7

2x3x3x3x2x2x$2= $432

[TitanSooner]

2,3,4,5,7
1,4
3,7
2,7,8
4
1,6,7

$360

[cal828]

2,5,7/3,4/1,3,7,8/7,9/3,4/1,6,9,12=$796

3/3,4/1,3,7,8/7,9/1,6,9,12=$384

2,5,7/3,4/6/7,9/3,4/1,6,9,12=$96

2,5,7/3,4/1,3,7,8/8/3,4/1,6,9,12=$384

2,5,7/3,4/1,3,7,8/7,9/7/1,5,9,1=$384

2,5,7/3,4/1,3,7,8/7,9/3,4/3=$198

[Kasept]

DH

[PeteMugg]

NICE ... DQ in the 4th cost me the Super. Those never go the other way for me. Good call? Bad call?

[Kasept]

How about that Victor Espinosa? Maybe better to leave things 'Left Unsaid"... but that was pathetic.

[TheSpyder]

The 4...game over

[Scav]

3: 1,2
4: 3,4,10
5: 1,3,4,7,8
6: 1,2,12
7: 1,4,7
8: 1,6,11

2x3x5x3x3x3x$2= $1620

3: 2,7
4: 4,3,10
5: 3,4,5
6: 1,2,12
7: 1,7
8: 6,7

2x3x3x3x2x2x$2= $432

Whoa...hello...the only one alive right now, comedy

[PeteMugg]

no, out in the first leg

[TheSpyder]

The 4 won the third, how's that on alive?

[Scav]

The 4 won the third, how's that on alive?

Oh yeah, I'm an idiot, didn't even look at the other part because of how impossible that horse was....

[SCUDSBROTHER]

F'N PLASTIC RAILS "OUT" GIVE YA NOWHERE TO RUN,AND FAVORS CRAP THAT HANGS AROUND.That's exactly how decent cappers lose...right there.If you take "all," Espinoza would have put in a great ride,and you get the even money.

[Coach Pants]

F'N PLASTIC RAILS "OUT" GIVE YA NOWHERE TO RUN,AND FAVORS CRAP THAT HANGS AROUND.That's exactly how decent cappers lose...right there.If you take "all," Espinoza would have put in a great ride,and you get the even money.
Was that Solis on the 8? He did a good job of blocking the bus driver's son in.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

The only thing unusual about today is that Valdivia actually got a piece of a victory on something decent(before he brought this trash in.)A normal day would be if he ran 2nd with OCEANUS(BY AN INCH AT 5/2,) and then brought this trash in.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Was that Solis on the 8? He did a good job of blocking the bus driver's son in.

NO,NAKATANI did the genocide...thanks so much.Solis got caught doing it in the 4th race,and cost somebody a super.It's not all that difficult(with rails out) to block the chalk in like that.Those temporary rails fck up a race about 50% of the time.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

No reason........zero...why Currency Trader was loose up front.Boys play games.I don't care how old they are.They live to play games.

[Scav]

No reason........zero...why Currency Trader was lose up front.Boys play games.I don't care how old they are.They live to play games.

Back gambling again Scuds?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Back gambling again Scuds?


That's a big "no." This is exactly why I don't like it that much.I played a carryover.Otherwise, I am the strongest of the weak.2 FAKELY run races in a row. "Don't bet if ya don't like the way they do things." -Thank you for whoever said that.McNasty gets up if they show any interest at all in keeping that horse honest up front.Did Zucker hand out stacks of hundreds,or the other 2 guys on speed just all the sudden decide that their need the lead types can make a run from off the pace? Maybe they got a barrel in the jocks room ,and have a drawing to see which speed jock gets a lone lead.You can't cap that.No reason for that horse to be alone.Nobody ever ask me (again)why I am mainly over on the sports thread.This is the reason.The 5th,and 6th today.That is the reason.I want to get beat by better horses(not horses who get artificial man-made breaks that can't be capped for.)From the time the gates opened in that 6th race,it smelled..it stunk...that was not an honest race.They gave Zuckers horse an obvious break in that race. It's crap.

[Kasept]

Foxy Lady (1) a stewards' scratch from the nightcap!

[SCUDSBROTHER]

Foxy Lady (1) a stewards' scratch from the nightcap!

Would have run 2nd by a frito(I know it.)

[Rootdog1]

I like the "Hold That Tiger" offspring Exacta in the 8th

$1 Tri Box 6/10/11/7

[Rootdog1]

I like the "Hold That Tiger" offspring Exacta in the 8th

$1 Tri Box 6/10/11/7

Wooo-Hooo!!!! Only hit of the freakin day

[TitanSooner]

I like the "Hold That Tiger" offspring Exacta in the 8th

$1 Tri Box 6/10/11/7
you're money

[ArlJim78]

Wooo-Hooo!!!! Only hit of the freakin day
i had the same idea, keyed the 10 first and second and landed a small super.
what a brutal day.

[Kasept]

$211,000

[SCUDSBROTHER]

I can see singling the last race,and going all in the 5th(with the rail out....it's a catshit foodfight...farce.)The problem is that you gotta get that 7 horse in the 6th.That's a need the lead horse(if ever there was one,) and it's impossible to predict that lone lead today.It's criminal....Same as a thug shoplifting.

[Kasept]

Congrats to Cassie and ArlJim on 5/6 ticks... Both win t-shirts...

Bonus t-shirt to Pete Mugg as the ONLY player to have the kooky 4 in the 5th race!!

Great effort by all on a murderous series.. Hope those that tried the multi-ticket approach felt it was a worthwhile effort.

Carryover at BEL tomorrow if anyone is hungry for more!

Thanks to all...

[ArlJim78]

Congrats to Cassie and ArlJim on 5/6 ticks...
nope not me, i only had four.

[Kasept]

nope not me, i only had four.
$2 Pick-6

4,5 / 4,9 / 4 / 7 / 8 / 11

5 of 6 $755.00

Jim,

Guess you ammended after the 9 scratched, but the 4 went off favored so the original play as posted pays 5/6...

[philcski]

Congrats to Cassie and ArlJim on 5/6 ticks... Both win t-shirts...

Bonus t-shirt to Pete Mugg as the ONLY player to have the kooky 4 in the 5th race!!

Great effort by all on a murderous series.. Hope those that tried the multi-ticket approach felt it was a worthwhile effort.

Carryover at BEL tomorrow if anyone is hungry for more!

Thanks to all...

Hit 5/6 3 times for real money. Missed the 4... and almost used him. Had I gotten in the jockey's heads and known they would go 1:14 to the 6F... :confused:
Multi ticket approach is the way to go, especially on days like the BC people!!!

[philcski]

Just watched the replay of that race... wish I hadn't. :mad:

[SCUDSBROTHER]

O.K., I am going back to Sports threads etc. Trust me,if you play these things,don't logically cap all 6 races.Cap 4,and figure they are gunna give out an unexpected lone lead,or some other b.s. advantage to whoever they see fit to give it to.You can't cap them all.If you did,then McNasty would be a decent capping pick in that 6th,and he would have won an honestly run race.There is a couple million up for grabs,and if you think they are gunna run all these 6 races honestly,then you will not win. It doesn't work to cap all 6.They read the form,and they gunna do shananigans in usually 2 of the 6 races.Maybe they intend to throw one,and having the rail out on the turf is just asking for crap to come in.You had better think opposite of that form for 2 races,because that's what these jocks are gunna make happen.If there are 3 horses that have speed(and have to get clear to win their races,)then in the 1st quarter mile only one will show speed.In the 2nd quarter mile the other speeds will make it look like they want to pressure it.Now.......STOP!!Watch closely,and see how they get up maybe close,but they never actually get to the horse.They make you think they want to get to that horse...they don't want to get to him.McNasty look like to you he was gunna catch that horse? It's an illusion.The horse who was supposed to win that race won that race.They know that horse will keep running if he clears...They let him clear...voila.....It's not complicated.There is money up for grabs,and they are gunna do opposite of logical capping.One or 2 races are gunna be this way(especially with a big pot.)If you simply remember that the carpet is gunna get pulled out from under people who cap hard,then you will win.They know exactly what the capper thinks should happen,and they are gunna do the opposite(in 1 or 2 legs.) This is real life,and that's what they are doing out there.You have to bet like they think,and the way they think is to do the exact opposite of what that form says(for atleast one of the 6 legs.)

[pmacdaddy]

O.K., I am going back to Sports threads etc. Trust me,if you play these things,don't logically cap all 6 races.Cap 4,and figure they are gunna give out an unexpected lone lead,or some other b.s. advantage to whoever they see fit to give it to.You can't cap them all.If you did,then McNasty would be a decent capping pick in that 6th,and he would have won an honestly run race.There is a couple million up for grabs,and if you think they are gunna run all these 6 races honestly,then you will not win. It doesn't work to cap all 6.They read the form,and they gunna do shananigans in usually 2 of the 6 races.Maybe they intend to throw one,and having the rail out on the turf is just asking for crap to come in.You had better think opposite of that form for 2 races,because that's what these jocks are gunna make happen.If there are 3 horses that have speed(and have to get clear to win their races,)then in the 1st quarter mile only one will show speed.In the 2nd quarter mile the other speeds will make it look like they want to pressure it.Now.......STOP!!Watch closely,and see how they get up maybe close,but they never actually get to the horse.They make you think they want to get to that horse...they don't want to get to him.McNasty look like to you he was gunna catch that horse? It's an illusion.The horse who was supposed to win that race won that race.They know that horse will keep running if he clears...They let him clear...voila.....It's not complicated.There is money up for grabs,and they are gunna do opposite of logical capping.One or 2 races are gunna be this way(especially with a big pot.)If you simply remember that the carpet is gunna get pulled out from under people who cap hard,then you will win.They know exactly what the capper thinks should happen,and they are gunna do the opposite(in 1 or 2 legs.) This is real life,and that's what they are doing out there.You have to bet like they think,and the way they think is to do the exact opposite of what that form says(for atleast one of the 6 legs.)

Are you saying "somebody" fixed the pick6?

[Scav]

Are you saying "somebody" fixed the pick6?

Let Scuds go, it is like when an elephant gets loose from the zoo, don't try and stop him :)

[ArlJim78]

O.K., I am going back to Sports threads etc. Trust me,if you play these things,don't logically cap all 6 races.Cap 4,and figure they are gunna give out an unexpected lone lead,or some other b.s. advantage to whoever they see fit to give it to.You can't cap them all.If you did,then McNasty would be a decent capping pick in that 6th,and he would have won an honestly run race.There is a couple million up for grabs,and if you think they are gunna run all these 6 races honestly,then you will not win. It doesn't work to cap all 6.They read the form,and they gunna do shananigans in usually 2 of the 6 races.Maybe they intend to throw one,and having the rail out on the turf is just asking for crap to come in.You had better think opposite of that form for 2 races,because that's what these jocks are gunna make happen.If there are 3 horses that have speed(and have to get clear to win their races,)then in the 1st quarter mile only one will show speed.In the 2nd quarter mile the other speeds will make it look like they want to pressure it.Now.......STOP!!Watch closely,and see how they get up maybe close,but they never actually get to the horse.They make you think they want to get to that horse...they don't want to get to him.McNasty look like to you he was gunna catch that horse? It's an illusion.The horse who was supposed to win that race won that race.They know that horse will keep running if he clears...They let him clear...voila.....It's not complicated.There is money up for grabs,and they are gunna do opposite of logical capping.One or 2 races are gunna be this way(especially with a big pot.)If you simply remember that the carpet is gunna get pulled out from under people who cap hard,then you will win.They know exactly what the capper thinks should happen,and they are gunna do the opposite(in 1 or 2 legs.) This is real life,and that's what they are doing out there.You have to bet like they think,and the way they think is to do the exact opposite of what that form says(for atleast one of the 6 legs.)who are THEY, and do you think THEY conspired to hit the pk6 and the the reason McNasty didn't win is because he wasn't supposed to? I guess THEY were also so clever that THEY knew Shootist would win by a head and Currency Trader by a neck. what are you smoking?

[SCUDSBROTHER]

who are THEY, and do you think THEY conspired to hit the pk6 and the the reason McNasty didn't win is because he wasn't supposed to? I guess THEY were also so clever that THEY knew Shootist would win by a head and Currency Trader by a neck. what are you smoking?

I have been watching horses for over 25 years,and yes,these jocks throw some races(that 6th race today was a thrown race.) He was the horse they wanted to win the race.The they is the jocks involved with not going with this horse out of the gate.So incredible how people just accept the absurd.There is plenty of speed in the race,and yet this horse gets no pressure at all until after the 1st quarter...none...You want to laugh at me,but the facts are the facts.I laugh at those who think that was a legit run race.You would need to be a true addict to think that was a legit run race.There are atleast 3 horses in there that don't win unless they are very close to the lead.So,when you see only one speed horse show up it's not an accident.It's golden to them.To know who is gunna clear? That's money to them.If you want to continue to believe that there was just one speed horse in that race,then fine,but I doubt you thought that before.You have carved out that new view,because you want to believe it's a fair race.It was a fake race,and if you wanna live in fantasyland,you can.

[2Hot4TV]

QUE????? Boat races everyday at my beloved Santa Anita?

[TitanSooner]

I have been watching horses for over 25 years,and yes,these jocks throw some races(that 6th race today was a thrown race.) He was the horse they wanted to win the race.The they is the jocks involved with not going with this horse out of the gate.So incredible how people just accept the absurd.There is plenty of speed in the race,and yet this horse gets no pressure at all until after the 1st quarter...none...You want to laugh at me,but the facts are the facts.I laugh at those who think that was a legit run race.You would need to be a true addict to think that was a legit run race.There are atleast 3 horses in there that don't win unless they are very close to the lead.So,when you see only one speed horse show up it's not an accident.It's golden to them.To know who is gunna clear? That's money to them.If you want to continue to believe that there was just one speed horse in that race,then fine,but I doubt you thought that before.You have carved out that new view,because you want to believe it's a fair race.It was a fake race,and if you wanna live in fantasyland,you can.

http://i120.photobucket.com/albums/o187/coakes1/PastedImage.jpg

On CJ's numbers, not only did this horse have the high early speed fig, but the top race out for the last 3 races..

Not saying race fixing doesn't happen, I just don't believe it happened here.

[philcski]

I have been watching horses for over 25 years,and yes,these jocks throw some races(that 6th race today was a thrown race.) He was the horse they wanted to win the race.The they is the jocks involved with not going with this horse out of the gate.So incredible how people just accept the absurd.There is plenty of speed in the race,and yet this horse gets no pressure at all until after the 1st quarter...none...You want to laugh at me,but the facts are the facts.I laugh at those who think that was a legit run race.You would need to be a true addict to think that was a legit run race.There are atleast 3 horses in there that don't win unless they are very close to the lead.So,when you see only one speed horse show up it's not an accident.It's golden to them.To know who is gunna clear? That's money to them.If you want to continue to believe that there was just one speed horse in that race,then fine,but I doubt you thought that before.You have carved out that new view,because you want to believe it's a fair race.It was a fake race,and if you wanna live in fantasyland,you can.

The P6 paid FIVE TIMES the parlay value yesterday. Don't you think there would have been more winners if it truly had been rigged?

Currency Trader figured to get the lead as he had much the highest pace figs. I didn't like the horse as he's a confirmed quitter but used him anyways given he might get away with it at every call. Just because there's a lot of 1's in the other horses' running lines doesn't mean they were fast enough to catch him, c'mon, you know that.

[ArlJim78]

I have been watching horses for over 25 years,and yes,these jocks throw some races(that 6th race today was a thrown race.) He was the horse they wanted to win the race.The they is the jocks involved with not going with this horse out of the gate.So incredible how people just accept the absurd.There is plenty of speed in the race,and yet this horse gets no pressure at all until after the 1st quarter...none...You want to laugh at me,but the facts are the facts.I laugh at those who think that was a legit run race.You would need to be a true addict to think that was a legit run race.There are atleast 3 horses in there that don't win unless they are very close to the lead.So,when you see only one speed horse show up it's not an accident.It's golden to them.To know who is gunna clear? That's money to them.If you want to continue to believe that there was just one speed horse in that race,then fine,but I doubt you thought that before.You have carved out that new view,because you want to believe it's a fair race.It was a fake race,and if you wanna live in fantasyland,you can.talk about living in a fantasyland? you throw out statements like "that's money to them", please explain how it money to them.

yes I laugh at you because you have offered no facts. I handicapped that race pretty closely and was on the mark. It is posted in the other thread. No one tipped me off that Currency Trader was the play. I liked the look of his form and speed, and the fact that Baze was riding him instead of the outside horse. I was suspect of the FPX form translating to SA for these cheap horses. its actually way more absurd to accept your idea that it was a thrown race and that people like Migliore participated in it, than it is to accept that it was legit. btw, how many other races were thrown yesterday in your opinion? and even if you are correct that it was thrown, how does throwing one race lead to catching the pick six? how exactly did all the jockeys that supposedly participated in the fix actually make a profit? saying you watched races for 25 years means nothing to me if when you make statements like this. it reminds me of the oldtimers that have been at the track for 50 years and you see them muttering to themselves when they lose talking about crooked jockeys, fixed races, etc. always some big conspiracy is the reason that they lost.
I'm not naive enough to think that cheating is never part of the equation, but to imply that it involves almost the entire jockey colony and that you are so sharp that you can catch it just by observation of the race is preposterous.
reminds me of another poster we have that realized that a buzzer was used by a jockey just by looking at the results chart! we sure have some sharpies on here.

[philcski]

talk about living in a fantasyland? you throw out statements like "that's money to them", please explain how it money to them.

yes I laugh at you because you have offered no facts. I handicapped that race pretty closely and was on the mark. It is posted in the other thread. No one tipped me off that Currency Trader was the play. I liked the look of his form and speed, and the fact that Baze was riding him instead of the outside horse. I was suspect of the FPX form translating to SA for these cheap horses. its actually way more absurd to accept your idea that it was a thrown race and that people like Migliore participated in it, than it is to accept that it was legit. btw, how many other races were thrown yesterday in your opinion? and even if you are correct that it was thrown, how does throwing one race lead to catching the pick six? how exactly did all the jockeys that supposedly participated in the fix actually make a profit? saying you watched races for 25 years means nothing to me if when you make statements like this. it reminds me of the oldtimers that have been at the track for 50 years and you see them muttering to themselves when they lose talking about crooked jockeys, fixed races, etc. always some big conspiracy is the reason that they lost.
I'm not naive enough to think that cheating is never part of the equation, but to imply that it involves almost the entire jockey colony and that you are so sharp that you can catch it just by observation of the race is preposterous.
reminds me of another poster we have that realized that a buzzer was used by a jockey just by looking at the results chart! we sure have some sharpies on here.

People who lose will make every excuse why they did. About the only legitimate rider beef yesterday IMO would be Espinoza on Frankel's in the 5th, he butchered that ride. If you're riding the best horse, don't get trapped on the rail like that trying to save too much ground.

I like Scuds, because he provides a unique approach and isn't afraid to take a shot on a bomb, but this is a little out of hand.

[SCUDSBROTHER]

talk about living in a fantasyland? you throw out statements like "that's money to them", please explain how it money to them.

yes I laugh at you because you have offered no facts. I handicapped that race pretty closely and was on the mark. It is posted in the other thread. No one tipped me off that Currency Trader was the play. I liked the look of his form and speed, and the fact that Baze was riding him instead of the outside horse. I was suspect of the FPX form translating to SA for these cheap horses. its actually way more absurd to accept your idea that it was a thrown race and that people like Migliore participated in it, than it is to accept that it was legit. btw, how many other races were thrown yesterday in your opinion? and even if you are correct that it was thrown, how does throwing one race lead to catching the pick six? how exactly did all the jockeys that supposedly participated in the fix actually make a profit? saying you watched races for 25 years means nothing to me if when you make statements like this. it reminds me of the oldtimers that have been at the track for 50 years and you see them muttering to themselves when they lose talking about crooked jockeys, fixed races, etc. always some big conspiracy is the reason that they lost.
I'm not naive enough to think that cheating is never part of the equation, but to imply that it involves almost the entire jockey colony and that you are so sharp that you can catch it just by observation of the race is preposterous.
reminds me of another poster we have that realized that a buzzer was used by a jockey just by looking at the results chart! we sure have some sharpies on here.

I didn't say Mig was involved.I said it was an illusion to think he was gunna get up when they gave that gift of a clear lead away to Currency Trader.That was the fake race yesterday(the 6th.)This is why they get away with throwing races: people don't(in their heart) want it to be true.I understand that,but the facts are that nobody at all was interested in going with this horse for the 1st quarter mile.This was not a race without early speed.They have to be atleast close up to the front,or they simply don't win races.So,to not be interested in pushing the early pace at all is opposite of these horse's ability. It's ugly,but it was a fake race from the start. Look,you had 3 days to cap that race.If that is the way you thought it was gunna go early on,then you're a genius.Any race that you give a need the lead type an easy lead like that is gunna result in making money(if you know it's gunna be alone like that.) You don't think it's an advantage to know that information? A 6-1 SINGLE? Come on.We would all love that.To me,that's an obviously thrown race,but it's a free country.If you think it was fair,then you have that right.It's not what I saw.I saw a huge edge given out to one particular horse.

[pmacdaddy]

I don't doubt monkey business goes on from time to time. But pick6 has way too many moving parts from a race fixing standpoint.

If you know the absolute result of 1 leg (which is impossible even if you have a few jocks on board) it is still a VERY risky proposition..

If you are going to go that far, you need to cover ALL in the remaining legs. Otherwise the orchestration would be potentially useless (and costly). Assuming 9 horse fields that is $118K in tickets. If things got chalky, you're a loser anyway....

Also, the other folks involved would further dillute the payout. I'm sure the parlay would be no where near 5X.

Maybe with two races fixed the concept would work. But the chance of fixing two races in a 6 race sequence, at a major track, on a high profile CO day, without the cat getting out of the bag, seems remote at best.

[ArlJim78]

I didn't say Mig was involved.I said it was an illusion to think he was gunna get up when they gave that gift of a clear lead away to Currency Trader.That was the fake race yesterday(the 6th.)This is why they get away with throwing races: people don't(in their heart) want it to be true.I understand that,but the facts are that nobody at all was interested in going with this horse for the 1st quarter mile.This was not a race without early speed.They have to be atleast close up to the front,or they simply don't win races.So,to not be interested in pushing the early pace at all is opposite of these horse's ability. It's ugly,but it was a fake race from the start. Look,you had 3 days to cap that race.If that is the way you thought it was gunna go early on,then you're a genius.Any race that you give a need the lead type an easy lead like that is gunna result in making money(if you know it's gunna be alone like that.) You don't think it's an advantage to know that information? A 6-1 SINGLE? Come on.We would all love that.To me,that's an obviously thrown race,but it's a free country.If you think it was fair,then you have that right.It's not what I saw.I saw a huge edge given out to one particular horse.
the horse was only 6:1, you didn't have to be a genius to come up with it. that horse had won before yesterday one third of its races this year (2/6).
even if you did nothing more than look at the last race speed figures for the entire field, that horse stood out. the real handicapping was to pick McNasty, i would have been much happier if he would have got up. he wasn't so obvious, but I thought the 7 was obvious and a rather generous price.

pgm# / bris spd / tg#
1 / 77 / 13
2 / 85 / 10
3 / 77 / 13
4 / 73 / 14
5 / 85 / 6
6 / 79 / 10
7 / 87 / 9
8 / 83 / 9
9 / 66 / 15
10 / 81 / 8
11 / 69 / 15
12 / 84 / 11

the seven had the best last out bris speed and tied for third best last out tg#.

bottom line, it doesn't take a conspiracy to see how this horse wins that race. most often the simplest explanation is the correct one.
how good of a pick six conspiracy is it when you just have a few jockeys hold back and let a horse have an easy lead? is that anything you would invest in? you still have a difficult $2 pick 5 to contend with. if it were me i'd take the sure thing and just put a few thousand to win at six to 1. except I would have to really think about it because how sure is it that a horse like that would win even if he were given and easy lead? as it turns out he barely won.
who was in on the conspiracy anyway. the two rushed up on the rail and denied the seven the ability to cross all the way over, the 2 12 and 8 all sure seemed to be pressing pretty hard, and didn't look at all like they were trying to lose. the 11 certainly didn't. the truth is he wasn't given an easy lead and there is nothing suspicious looking about it. if that was a conspiracy as you alledge it sure was a risky one and poorly executed. the seven finished a neck in front of two horses and one half length in front of a third.