10/10: Keeneland (Late P4)

[Kasept]

KEENELAND


6th: MSW, F&M-3+, 6f (P3, P4, Super)

Best Value: #9 Satin Rose 10-1 6th
Most Likely: #10 Antepova 6-1 4th
Exotics: #6 Noon Day 5-1 3rd
Super Add: #1 Talike Me 6-1 2nd


7th: ALW/N1X, F&M-3+, 9f-T (P3, Super)

Best Value: #1 C's Lullaby 15-1 6th
Most Likely: #9 Kin to the Wind 3-1 2nd
Exotics: #10 Bees 4-1 WON
Super Add: #11 Bobby's Babe 9-2 5th

$2 Exacta (10-9) $10.60


8th: OC/N$Y, 3+, 7f (DD, Super)

Best Value: #11 Japengo 15-1 3rd
Most Likely: #5 City Number 5-1 6th
Exotics: #9 Five Star Thief 30-1 WON
Super Add: #3 Big Rushlet 12-1 2nd

$1 Exacta (9-3) $409.30
$1 Trifecta (9-3-11) Paid $4,747.20


9th: S/ALW, 3+, 10f (Super)

Best Value: #3 Public Address 20-1 6th
Most Likely: #5 Gold Commander One 5-1 9th
Exotics: #1 Cane Garden Boy 4-1 WON
Super Add: #7 SCR


@$50 P4 Play:

6: 6-9-10
7: 1-9-10
8: 5-9-11
9: 3-5

3x3x3x2 = $54


Good luck!
Steve

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

jesustapdancing... you had the 9 five star thief at 51-1....oh baby!!!! nice job stevo:D :D

[jtrottier]

Steve had the triple if you boxed all 4. 50 cent trifecta paid $2,373. Way to go Steve. Wish i played it.

[docicu3]

jesustapdancing... you had the 9 five star thief at 51-1....oh baby!!!! nice job stevo:D :D


And his $1 dollar tri box only paid $4752......Byk just being Byk!!

[sumitas]

omg a 51-1 winner Five Star Thief. Kasept that was a nice spot. 9-3-11 tri, pheww; smokin.

[ArlJim78]

i know a guy who had the super for a dime in the 8th race. keyed on the three horse and got lucky with the nine on top.

[sumitas]

i think that paid around $2,700

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

gave out a tri and ext that were huge today.. the horse that won payed 105.00 to win .. a little gratitude would probebly be a nice thing..its a lot of work to put up plays all the time ..and worry that folks are following your selections .....great job steve..

[Cajungator26]

Hell yeah, that's awesome! Great capping, Steve! :cool:

[pointman]

Nice going, Steve. Great call. :)

[pmacdaddy]

Nice one Steve! Those were some very BIG numbers.

[AeWingnut]

gave out a tri and ext that were huge today.. the horse that won payed 105.00 to win .. a little gratitude would probebly be a nice thing..its a lot of work to put up plays all the time ..and worry that folks are following your selections .....great job steve..

I missed it:(

[Zaf]

Steve, You da man !

[Kasept]

Thanks very much all.. It was fun being on the air for the race and I'm particularly pleased that three people I know of used Five Star Thief: Matt for the win; 'Nick in Pittsburgh' boxing the 4 horses for the exacta and 'Larry the Mailman' (in my home town of Manchester, CT) utilizing my 4 and another for a piece of the Superfecta.

I liked the horse a lot when handicapping yesterday and not being as comfortable at KEE as Matt, was unsure how much to really like him at 30-1. City Number looked the 'most likely' at 5-1 and Japengo seemed the "best value" as a win candidate in the final analysis at 15-1. But Five Star Thief had to be used and landed as the Exotics inclusion. Christine Janks' Big Rushlet was very attractive at 12-1 too, so I added him in as the 4th. Got lucky getting the tri among the quartet with Japengo just getting up for third, and Big Rushlet ran big for the place.

Not to belabor the point, but I hope a result like this demonstrates why I structure the plays the way I do. Those that say having 4 horses offered in Selections "don't have an opinion" aren't appreciating the exotics game. I play exactas, tris, P3's-P4's and some supers. I make win-place bets, but not even remotely as often as exotic and multi-race bets.

I'm not looking at the horses specifically to select one single horse as a winner... I look trying to identify the 2-3 horses that appear to have the best shot at winning and seperate them by value, add a horse with an outside chance or marginally likeable chalk, and key the best priced horse with a real win shot or box 3-4 horses. My approach means I do get beat often with chalky results, but has also forged a positive return long term with solid to very large exacta, tri, super and P3-P4 hits.

I'm hardly the most sophisticated bettor/handicapper out there or the most knowledgeable, but when I hit a $721 exacta in 1990 box-wheeling a 16-1 shot with 4 horses on a $16 bet (3rd race on Alabama Day-Keynote Speaker at 27-1 over Balinar at the 16-1), I realized that it was an approach that would cover many, many incorrect views and have stuck with it as my playing method.

Anyway, I greatly appreciate the compliments; was very pleased with the result; and am most satisfied knowing others 'got healthy' with it...

[pointman]

Thanks very much all.. It was fun being on the air for the race and I'm particularly pleased that three people I know of used Five Star Thief: Matt for the win; 'Nick in Pittsburgh' boxing the 4 horses for the exacta and 'Larry the Mailman' (in my home town of Manchester, CT) utilizing my 4 and another for a piece of the Superfecta.

I liked the horse a lot when handicapping yesterday and not being as comfortable at KEE as Matt, was unsure how much to really like him at 30-1. City Number looked the 'most likely' at 5-1 and Japengo seemed the "best value" as a win candidate in the final analysis at 15-1. But Five Star Thief had to be used and landed as the Exotics inclusion. Christine Janks' Big Rushlet was very attractive at 12-1 too, so I added him in as the 4th. Got lucky getting the tri among the quartet with Japengo just getting up for third, and Big Rushlet ran big for the place.

Not to belabor the point, but I hope a result like this demonstrates why I structure the plays the way I do. Those that say having 4 horses offered in Selections "don't have an opinion" aren't appreciating the exotics game. I play exactas, tris, P3's-P4's and some supers. I make win-place bets, but not even remotely as often as exotic and multi-race bets.

I'm not looking at the horses specifically to select one single horse as a winner... I look trying to identify the 2-3 horses that appear to have the best shot at winning and seperate them by value, add a horse with an outside chance or marginally likeable chalk, and key the best priced horse with a real win shot or box 3-4 horses. My approach means I do get beat often with chalky results, but has also forged a positive return long term with solid to very large exacta, tri, super and P3-P4 hits.

I'm hardly the most sophisticated bettor/handicapper out there or the most knowledgeable, but when I hit a $721 exacta in 1990 box-wheeling a 16-1 shot with 4 horses on a $16 bet (3rd race on Alabama Day-Keynote Speaker at 27-1 over Balinar at the 16-1), I realized that it was an approach that would cover many, many incorrect views and have stuck with it as my playing method.

Anyway, I greatly appreciate the compliments; was very pleased with the result; and am most satisfied knowing others 'got healthy' with it...

'Those that say having 4 horses offered in Selections "don't have an opinion"' obviously didn't use your horses. I have learned more about wagering from this board, and in particular Steve, in less than a year than I have in many years following the horses. Never had a signor before this year and have had a few in less than nine months and 2 in 9 days. I still have to learn how to cut more horses down and get my bets down, but I am working on it. Keep doing what you are doing Steve, I for one appreciate it and those that complain obviously don't understand how to make a profit in this game.

[RolloTomasi]

gave out a tri and ext that were huge today.. the horse that won payed 105.00 to win .. a little gratitude would probebly be a nice thing..its a lot of work to put up plays all the time ..and worry that folks are following your selections .....great job steve..

That's freakin' pathetic if somebody on here made money on that 30-1 shot and then didn't even thank the guy for it afterwards.

Who was it, Hooves? Maybe we can PM them.

Come out all you Five Star Thieves!

[AeWingnut]

http://i172.photobucket.com/albums/w3/AeWingnut/8thracepayoff_Oct10.jpg

I was at Keeneland. Saw Hooves selections but didn't find Steve's.

The advantages from a betting stand point
No OTB takeout and you can see the horses in the paddock.

My selecion in the first race looked completely out of sorts so I knew that was a bad bet. Then for the 4th race the #7 Just For Keeps looked great. Most favorites do but it helped me single in an another chalky pick 3 bet.

The disadvantages are (for me) That I narrow the scope a lot before the race so that I don't have to carry PPs around all day. I just have numbers on a piece of paper.

Like Steve I choose 4 horses with 1 or 2 of them keyed. Depending on the field size of course.

Congrats Steve on your big hit. I hope you bet your picks the right way
I would have keyed #11 Japengo 1st and 2nd in the exacta and 3rd in the tri. it's my way over covering. Too cheap to box all of them for a tri. unless it was for .50 cents

Lets hope that today there are more monster payouts.