Barclay Tagg's comments on NoBiz

[brockguy]

“The problem with the Mile is that even if he wins he won't get the accolades he deserves,” said trainer Barclay Tagg. “English Channel or whoever wins the Breeders' Cup Turf will probably be voted turf champion, and he's not going to be three-year-old champion, so what does he really have to gain by running in the Mile?”

making excuses or does he have valid point..

[philcski]

“The problem with the Mile is that even if he wins he won't get the accolades he deserves,” said trainer Barclay Tagg. “English Channel or whoever wins the Breeders' Cup Turf will probably be voted turf champion, and he's not going to be three-year-old champion, so what does he really have to gain by running in the Mile?”

making excuses or does he have valid point..

does anybody actually care who wins the Eclipse awards? If he wins the BC Mile that's accolades enough!!

The problem is he isn't fast enough to win the BC Mile.

[pmacdaddy]

Thought he looked great Sat, but brushing off the BC Mile seems extreme..

He has not faced G1 company on the Grass yet, correct?

[Coach Pants]

No comment.

[letswastemoney]

He's right. No need for a grueling race if there is nothing on the line. Yeah you can say it's still money to win....but he can pick up some easy money and a graded stakes at Hollywood Park next month.

[Coach Pants]

Actually I do have a comment.

Looking at John Henry's PPs just magnifies how pathetic the owners and trainers of today are. They should be ashamed to call themselves horsemen.

[Indian Charlie]

This is Steve Haskin's take on NoBiz:

The Mile would be a tough spot, with a big field and post positions so important, but one thing is for sure, we haven’t seen an American turf horse with that kind of explosive turn of foot in quite a while.

I guess Kitten's Joy is ancient history.

Is PointGiven1985 ghostwriting for Haskin these days?

[LARHAGE]

This is Steve Haskin's take on NoBiz:

The Mile would be a tough spot, with a big field and post positions so important, but one thing is for sure, we haven’t seen an American turf horse with that kind of explosive turn of foot in quite a while.

I guess Kitten's Joy is ancient history.

I think Shakespeare would crush him as would After Market and Crossing the Line, I don't think he could even beat Out of Control, Tagg is getting a bit ahead of himself if he thinks he had that race in the bag.

[whodey17]

No Biz wouldnt even hit the board in the Mile. I dont mind Tagg skipping the Mile. I think it would be a silly attempt. Like others have said, there are softer spots and plenty of money to earn

[Bobby Fischer]

he isn't a miler

I wouldn't enter someone just for the sake of saying he was running on the big day. Then again my last name isn't Valando or Tagg.


:cool:

[philcski]

Just to put things in perspective, Tagg skipped the Mile with Showing Up off a similar campaign and he would have rated at least TWICE the chance of Nobiz in the Mile.

he isn't a miler

I wouldn't enter someone just for the sake of saying he was running on the big day. Then again my last name isn't Valando or Tagg.


:cool:

Tagg doesn't either. That's one of the many things that makes him a great trainer/horseman.

[ceejay]

“so what does he really have to gain by running in the Mile?”..
$1200000 winners purse

[ateamstupid]

“The problem with the Mile is that even if he wins he won't get the accolades he deserves,” said trainer Barclay Tagg. “English Channel or whoever wins the Breeders' Cup Turf will probably be voted turf champion, and he's not going to be three-year-old champion, so what does he really have to gain by running in the Mile?”

making excuses or does he have valid point..

Tough ****, Barclay. YOU made the decision to run him on dirt half the year as well as the decision to run him against strictly three-year-olds all season, making him all but ineligible for any grass or three-year-old honors. And now instead of going in the BCM, where, with a good showing, he would actually start to deserve and receive some of the "accolades" you think people are denying him, you're going elsewhere. Either run him or don't, but don't make it seem like people are shortchanging the horse.

[Danzig]

i think barclay tagg is underestimating the astuteness of many racing fans, who give most winners their due when they win a big one.

what he meant to say was i'm looking for softer competition than what he would face in the mile, and we will pad his resume and wallet against lesser horses than what he would face at monmouth.

[pweizer]

Does anyone remember who won the Eclipse award last year? It was an unheralded longshot in the MIle named Miesque's Approval. If Nobiz were to win the race and some crazy longshot won the Turf, he absolutely could be named champion. Tagg did the same thing last year with Showing Up. Just baffling.

Paul

[NTamm1215]

While I won't attempt to decipher what exactly Barclay Tagg said or meant because deciphering "trainerspeak" is more difficult than reading Nietzsche, I think the assumptions that Tagg is skipping the Mile because he is afraid of the competition he may face are a tad faulty.

Nobiz beat the hell out of a good group of horses on Saturday, specifically Red Giant who had enjoyed a PERFECT trip. He rolled by RG, and showed a terrific new dimension, which was to rate well off the pace and finish strongly.

Maybe I'm alone in thinking that the Jamaica was a far, far better performance than we had ever seen from Nobiz. That being said, I'm not Barclay Tagg and am also not privy to his thoughts, so I don't know why he's not running in the Mile.

NT

[Kasept]

Tough ****, Barclay. YOU made the decision to run him on dirt half the year as well as the decision to run him against strictly three-year-olds all season, making him all but ineligible for any grass or three-year-old honors. And now instead of going in the BCM, where, with a good showing, he would actually start to deserve and receive some of the "accolades" you think people are denying him, you're going elsewhere. Either run him or don't, but don't make it seem like people are shortchanging the horse.
Joe,

That's not entirely fair to Tagg who received unending meddling from Mrs. Valando who reportedly was driving him nuts. He told Haskin way back that he wanted to get Nobiz on the grass but she insisted on a Classics course. If it's up to Tagg, he'd probably run everything in the barn on the lawn!

[Danzig]

to say however that one is skipping a race because if the horse wins he won't get recognition imo is bullshit. i can think of about a million bucks worth of recognition he'd get. so, it's something else. so, what would that be? probably the same thing that drives many to avoid the top fields, fear of losing. or realizing that altho his horse might win a turf race, that in no way translates to winning a mile race on turf, or a 12f on turf, which isn't fear of losing, but recognizing that the chances of a win are somewhere between slim and no.

[ateamstupid]

Joe,

That's not entirely fair to Tagg who received unending meddling from Mrs. Valando who reportedly was driving him nuts. He told Haskin way back that he wanted to get Nobiz on the grass but she insisted on a Classics course. If it's up to Tagg, he'd probably run everything in the barn on the lawn!

Good to know, but I still think playing the whole "there's nothing to win, because he's underappreciated" spiel is weak. Either go or don't, but don't act like some uncontrollable factor is keeping you out of the race. Also, in regard to his somewhat slighting remark about English Channel, why didn't Tagg put Nobiz in the Hirsch? Surely if NLS beat EC there, he'd have more of a claim for the male turf Eclipse than he does now. Tagg chose to keep him facing three-year-olds and now he's whining about how a horse that was there for the beating might get the Eclipse over him.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

Does anyone remember who won the Eclipse award last year? It was an unheralded longshot in the MIle named Miesque's Approval. If Nobiz were to win the race and some crazy longshot won the Turf, he absolutely could be named champion. Tagg did the same thing last year with Showing Up. Just baffling.

Paul
no way he should have been that long a shot...:D and the horse was a great story ...

[Rileyoriley]

no way he should have been that long a shot...:D and the horse was a great story ...
And a great payoff!:)

[SniperSB23]

I think Miesque's Approval had a better resume going into the BC than Nobiz does. Nobiz should have to win the BC Mile and the Hollywood Derby to get serious consideration.

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

i think hes smart not to run..the euros will most likely bring a ringer..and english channel loves mon.. though i will try to beatem at the windows.e.c

[King Glorious]

This is Steve Haskin's take on NoBiz:

The Mile would be a tough spot, with a big field and post positions so important, but one thing is for sure, we haven’t seen an American turf horse with that kind of explosive turn of foot in quite a while.

I guess Kitten's Joy is ancient history.

Artie Schiller. And Gorella. And Megahertz. And.....well, I think the point is clear.

[MisterB]

Kind of hard to talk sense with a mouth full of owner in it. Tagg has to speak to the uninformed everyday, this day is no different.

[Getaway]

Artie Schiller. And Gorella. And Megahertz. And.....well, I think the point is clear.

Artie Schiller had an excellent turn of foot....but remember his most impressive races were against the 3YO's of 2004 (set the track record in the Jamaica, and looked equally as impressive as Nobiz doing it). He had an excellent 4YO season, but he didn't beat up on the competition like he did as a 3YO. If you throw out his 2004 Breeders cup, where he had a disastrous trip clipping heels and getting stuck behind a wall, he never ran a bad race.

The point I am trying to make is that when you face older horses, it is a whole new ball game. Look at showing up last year in the Man O' War. He ran a good race, but was not ready for that competition. Im sure Tagg feels that he probably won't win the mile, but has a good shot at it next year with a healthy horse, and probably can get an easy GI win at Hollywood just like he did with Showing Up last year.

[parsixfarms]

What happened with Showing Up last year (a horse that I think would have had a huge shot in the Mile) illustrates that you often need to strike while the iron's hot. Tagg said that he didn't want to run a 3YO against his elders and would wait to his 4YO season to take a shot at the BC. Then, Showing Up gets hurt in 2007, and he misses a chance to win a Cup race in both years. It's hard enough getting a horse to a race 12 days from now, let alone 12 months from now.

I also think that at this time of year a good 3YO can certainly beat their elders. In the past few weeks, we've seen it done by Curlin, Hard Spun, Panty Raid and Idiot Proof, and the BC Mile is full of 3YO winners. War Chant, Lure, Six Perfections, Ridgewood Pearl and Miesque (the last three of whom were 3YO fillies) come to mind off the top of my head. I'm not saying that NoBiz is in their league, but the notion that we shouldn't run because he's only a 3YO makes little sense to me. (If he's just ducking the race because he knows his horse would not be competitive there, that's another story, but then don't complain that the horse is underappreciated.)

[philcski]

Artie Schiller had an excellent turn of foot....but remember his most impressive races were against the 3YO's of 2004 (set the track record in the Jamaica, and looked equally as impressive as Nobiz doing it). He had an excellent 4YO season, but he didn't beat up on the competition like he did as a 3YO. If you throw out his 2004 Breeders cup, where he had a disastrous trip clipping heels and getting stuck behind a wall, he never ran a bad race.

The point I am trying to make is that when you face older horses, it is a whole new ball game. Look at showing up last year in the Man O' War. He ran a good race, but was not ready for that competition. Im sure Tagg feels that he probably won't win the mile, but has a good shot at it next year with a healthy horse, and probably can get an easy GI win at Hollywood just like he did with Showing Up last year.

Artie was one of my personal favorites, but man did he have bad luck in photo finishes!

What happened with Showing Up last year (a horse that I think would have had a huge shot in the Mile) illustrates that you often need to strike while the iron's hot. Tagg said that he didn't want to run a 3YO against his elders and would wait to his 4YO season to take a shot at the BC. Then, Showing Up gets hurt in 2007, and he misses a chance to win a Cup race in both years. It's hard enough getting a horse to a race 12 days from now, let alone 12 months from now.

I also think that at this time of year a good 3YO can certainly beat their elders. In the past few weeks, we've seen it done by Curlin, Hard Spun, Panty Raid and Idiot Proof, and the BC Mile is full of 3YO winners. War Chant, Lure, Six Perfections, Ridgewood Pearl and Miesque (the last three of whom were 3YO fillies) come to mind off the top of my head. I'm not saying that NoBiz is in their league, but the notion that we shouldn't run because he's only a 3YO makes little sense to me. (If he's just ducking the race because he knows his horse would not be competitive there, that's another story, but then don't complain that the horse is underappreciated.)

There's about a 0% chance of it happening, but let's cross our fingers that Showing Up comes back from injury 100%. That is one nice horse when right. I don't think people realize how good his Lexington-Derby-Cnl Turf Cup was off of TWO career starts prior.

[SniperSB23]

What happened with Showing Up last year (a horse that I think would have had a huge shot in the Mile) illustrates that you often need to strike while the iron's hot. Tagg said that he didn't want to run a 3YO against his elders and would wait to his 4YO season to take a shot at the BC. Then, Showing Up gets hurt in 2007, and he misses a chance to win a Cup race in both years. It's hard enough getting a horse to a race 12 days from now, let alone 12 months from now.

I also think that at this time of year a good 3YO can certainly beat their elders. In the past few weeks, we've seen it done by Curlin, Hard Spun, Panty Raid and Idiot Proof, and the BC Mile is full of 3YO winners. War Chant, Lure, Six Perfections, Ridgewood Pearl and Miesque (the last three of whom were 3YO fillies) come to mind off the top of my head. I'm not saying that NoBiz is in their league, but the notion that we shouldn't run because he's only a 3YO makes little sense to me. (If he's just ducking the race because he knows his horse would not be competitive there, that's another story, but then don't complain that the horse is underappreciated.)

Three year old turf horse is one of the few cases that it can make some sense to skip the BC since you have the Hollywood Derby as an option. Of course it would be great to see Nobiz go in both but that is a lot to ask under the modern day "fresh horse" training practices.

[KY_Sasquash]

Tagg should run him in the Classic. The horse is coming into his own right now and he'd have a legit shot. He was too immature back in the spring and finally is maturing. If he doesnt run well he can point him towards a turf campaign next year. Winning the Hollywood derby isnt going to do much for his stallion prospects since he's by Albert the Great so missing that race wouldnt be that big of a deal.

[cmorioles]

Hard to take him seriously when he implies English Channel is the most likely winner of the Turf.

[miraja2]

Tagg should run him in the Classic. The horse is coming into his own right now and he'd have a legit shot.
I don't think running him in the classic would make a lot of sense. I don't think he would have a "legit shot."
As for the larger question, Tagg seems to be one of the few trainers that simply refuses to let the stupid Breeders' Cup dictate everything he is going to do with a good horse. For that I applaud him. He didn't send Funny Cide to the Juvy in '02. Showing Up last year. Now Nobiz. Unlike a lot of these other morons that treat the rest of the year like it is only some series of preps for the BC, Tagg seems to view the Breeders' Cup races as just some more G1 races. Frankly, I agree with him.

[KY_Sasquash]

Winning a grade 1 on the turf won't do much for him as a stallion? Why not? He might be maturing, but he is obviously better on the turf.


Because he's by Albert the Great, who's by Go For Gin-not the most fashionable stallion line. If he were by Storm Cat, Street Sense, A.P. Indy, Dynaformer, Gone West etc.....then it would be a big benefit. Same thing is true for Showing Up. Yes he's obviously better on the turf, I agree, but this year's Classic is a great spot for him to take a shot back on the dirt. He'd be 20-1 and would have a great shot. I think thats why Tagg was saying if he wins the BC Mile he still wouldnt be top 3yo maybe hinting to the owner that they should take a chance in the Classic. Winning the Classic would add a alot of appeal to him as a stallion prospect.

[blackthroatedwind]

It's easy to see the appeal of the BC Mile considering both the weak field and NoBiz's terrific performance this weekend, however Tagg is pretty conservative, and considering his success level it seems more than unfair to suggest that any of us know better than he. From a fan's standpoint obviously we wish NoBiz was in the mile but I will defer to the judgement of someone who clearly knows better than any of us.

Running him in the Classic makes little to no sense. He's already proven to be vastly inferior to the competition he would face in that race. Perhaps next year if the handicap division is weak Tagg could conceivably take a shot on the dirt again during the year but my guess is once he races a horse successfully on the grass he is loathe to switch surfaces. Unlike Showing Up, who had feet issues which kept him on the grass, NoBiz could at least physically make the switch. Perhaps Chuck can answer this but it is my understanding that trainers usually don't like moving from one surface to another especially after establishing success on one.

As far as a Grade 1 on the turf increasing his value, well he already has a Grade 1 on the dirt, so I suppose this is possible, but I'm sure he will have ample opportunity to do so in the future without this year's BC Mile. Not only is the Hollywood Derby a Grade 1 but next year may look like a Grade 1 tree of ripe fruits if it's anything like 2007.

[Indian Charlie]

It's easy to see the appeal of the BC Mile considering both the weak field and NoBiz's terrific performance this weekend, however Tagg is pretty conservative, and considering his success level it seems more than unfair to suggest that any of us know better than he. From a fan's standpoint obviously we wish NoBiz was in the mile but I will defer to the judgement of someone who clearly knows better than any of us.

Running him in the Classic makes little to no sense. He's already proven to be vastly inferior to the competition he would face in that race. Perhaps next year if the handicap division is weak Tagg could conceivably take a shot on the dirt again during the year but my guess is once he races a horse successfully on the grass he is loathe to switch surfaces. Unlike Showing Up, who had feet issues which kept him on the grass, NoBiz could at least physically make the switch. Perhaps Chuck can answer this but it is my understanding that trainers usually don't like moving from one surface to another especially after establishing success on one.

As far as a Grade 1 on the turf increasing his value, well he already has a Grade 1 on the dirt, so I suppose this is possible, but I'm sure he will have ample opportunity to do so in the future without this year's BC Mile. Not only is the Hollywood Derby a Grade 1 but next year may look like a Grade 1 tree of ripe fruits if it's anything like 2007.

hey andy, while you are doing that video with drugS, ask him what he thinks about putting slobiz back on the dirt. he'll give you a 2 hour earful why he thinks that he'll be a star when he's moved back to dirt! Seriously!

[blackthroatedwind]

I intend to not give DrugS a lot of rope to hang himself.

[miraja2]

Because he's by Albert the Great, who's by Go For Gin-not the most fashionable stallion line. If he were by Storm Cat, Street Sense, A.P. Indy, Dynaformer, Gone West etc.....then it would be a big benefit.

So you are saying that winning a G1 on turf won't help his value as a stallion BECAUSE he doesn't come from a fashionable sire line? I think you have that completely backwards. If a horse comes from a fashionable stallion line already, doesn't it stand to reason that they would need to prove LESS on the track to be considered a valuable future stallion? Therefore a horse like Nobiz would actually increase more in value by being a G1 winner on dirt and turf than a horse by someone like Storm Cat or AP Indy would for accomplishing that same thing, becasuse their presumed value is already higher (I'm still trying to figure out why you included Street Sense in your original list of fashionable sires).

As a completely different point, I think most people considering the value of a sire are also smart enough to look at the dam-side of the pedigree as well. If people want Storm Cat (I know I wouldn't, but a lot of people seem to disagree) they can find it in Nobiz, since he is out of a Storm Cat mare.

[parsixfarms]

With an under-performing Albert the Great as his sire (and Go For Gin, now only a regional sire in MD, as his grand-sire), no matter how much NoBiz accomplished on the track, I could never see his initial stud fee as being higher than $15,000.

In comparison, Street Sense is a far more accomplished horse, by a sire who's likely to be standing next year for somewhere in the neighborhood of $100,000. That's why he is going to be a hot commodity next year, as will Hard Spun (by Danzig) and Any Given Saturday (by $225K sire, Distorted Humor). Whether they pan out, that's an entirely different question. Just ask the folks who bred to Point Given and Empire Maker at $100K their first seasons at stud.

[miraja2]

With an under-performing Albert the Great as his sire (and Go For Gin, now only a regional sire in MD, as his grand-sire), no matter how much NoBiz accomplished on the track, I could never see his initial stud fee as being higher than $15,000.

In comparison, Street Sense is a far more accomplished horse, by a sire who's likely to be standing next year for somewhere in the neighborhood of $100,000. That's why he is going to be a hot commodity next year, as will Hard Spun (by Danzig) and Any Given Saturday (by $225K sire, Distorted Humor). Whether they pan out, that's an entirely different question. Just ask the folks who bred to Point Given and Empire Maker at $100K their first seasons at stud.
Was anybody suggesting that Nobiz would or should stand for a higher fee than Street Sense? I don't think so. If anybody did they are crazy. KY_Sasquash listed Street Sense in a list with established sires like AP Indy, Dynaformer, and Storm Cat. That didn't make sense to me.

[KY_Sasquash]

So you are saying that winning a G1 on turf won't help his value as a stallion BECAUSE he doesn't come from a fashionable sire line?

No, see parisixfarm's comment. explains it perfectly. obviously another G1 would help his stallion resume, but with his bloodlines he going to have to "move up his mares" before he gets top broodmares. an example would be Dynamformer, he started out at $7,500 and has climbed the ladder to where he is now.

I think you have that completely backwards. If a horse comes from a fashionable stallion line already, doesn't it stand to reason that they would need to prove LESS on the track to be considered a valuable future stallion? Therefore a horse like Nobiz would actually increase more in value by being a G1 winner on dirt and turf than a horse by someone like Storm Cat or AP Indy would for accomplishing that same thing, becasuse their presumed value is already higher (I'm still trying to figure out why you included Street Sense in your original list of fashionable sires).

A G1 winning son of AP Indy, Storm Cat, or Gone West has a higher ceiling for a stud fee than a son of Albert the Great. Nobiz would have to dance every dance and repeatedly win G1's for him to stand above $20k-breeders arent going to pay an unreasonable stud fee on him when they can go to lines from these lines for similar or less fees. Street Sense was a typo. I meant Street Cry.

[KY_Sasquash]

Was anybody suggesting that Nobiz would or should stand for a higher fee than Street Sense? I don't think so. If anybody did they are crazy. KY_Sasquash listed Street Sense in a list with established sires like AP Indy, Dynaformer, and Storm Cat. That didn't make sense to me.


meant street cry. and yes i'd consider street sense a hot line right now since (pun intended) he's producing progeny that are winning on turf,dirt, poly, long, short, filly, colt-he's quite versatile and doesnt seem to have many weaknesses.

[NoLuvForPletch]

No, see parisixfarm's comment. explains it perfectly. obviously another G1 would help his stallion resume, but with his bloodlines he going to have to "move up his mares" before he gets top broodmares. an example would be Dynamformer, he started out at $7,500 and has climbed the ladder to where he is now.

Dynaformer entered stud 17 years ago. I think you'll need to come up with another example. $7,500 was alot of money back then. I don't think you can assume anything nowadays when it comes to stud fees. Especially if NoBiz turns out to be a sound horse that dominates the Turf division for the next year or two.

[KY_Sasquash]

Running him in the Classic makes little to no sense. He's already proven to be vastly inferior to the competition he would face in that race. Perhaps next year if the handicap division is weak Tagg could conceivably take a shot on the dirt again during the year but my guess is once he races a horse successfully on the grass he is loathe to switch surfaces. Unlike Showing Up, who had feet issues which kept him on the grass, NoBiz could at least physically make the switch. Perhaps Chuck can answer this but it is my understanding that trainers usually don't like moving from one surface to another especially after establishing success on one.

Im not saying that he'd be the favorite, but at 20-1 (probably longer on race day) I think he'd have a great shot to hit he board; dont know if he could win, but I'd sure like to see him try. The only bad race that he ran in the spring was in the Derby, which can be excused and he was beaten 4 lengths by Any Given Saturday in the Dwyer. His bloodlines suggest that he's finally maturing and maybe he was too immature in the spring to keep up with the other 3yos(certainly ran that way). Now the tight turns at Monmouth might be to his liking, but I think he'd only have to worry about Street Sense, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, who probably wont like the tight turns too, and Any Given Saturday, who's last race wasnt the most impressive so I dont think its that unrealistic of a spot for him.

[blackthroatedwind]

but I think he'd only have to worry about Street Sense, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, who probably wont like the tight turns too, and Any Given Saturday.


That's it?

[Benevolus]

This is Steve Haskin's take on NoBiz:

The Mile would be a tough spot, with a big field and post positions so important, but one thing is for sure, we haven’t seen an American turf horse with that kind of e turn of foot in quite a while.

I guess Kitten's Joy is ancient history.


Haskin is clueless. Nobiz doesn't even have the most e turn of foot in his own barn. Nobiz is slow. All these writers that hyped Nobiz for some reason earlier in the year are covering their butt. Nobiz is not in the BC Mile because he is not that fast.

[SniperSB23]

That's it?

When you consider 4th place is $250,000 and 5th is still over $100,000 it doesn't sound so daunting.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Haskin is clueless. Nobiz doesn't even have the most e turn of foot in his own barn. Nobiz is slow. All these writers that hyped Nobiz for some reason earlier in the year are covering their butt. Nobiz is not in the BC Mile because he is not that fast.

How much faster than the 34 and 4 he came home in do you want him to run?

[blackthroatedwind]

When you consider 4th place is $250,000 and 5th is still over $100,000 it doesn't sound so daunting.


His owner is worth a zillion dollars. Running him in a tough race like that and hoping for scaps makes no sense whatsoever.

The horse has had a full campaign this year. He should run where he belongs.

[King Glorious]

I don't see anything wrong with an attempt in the Classic. In my opinion, Nobiz looks like a better horse now. He looks more relaxed during his races, which is very important for him. I'm not saying that this will put him in the same class as horses like Curlin, Street Sense, Lawyer Ron and maybe Any Given Saturday but I honestly can't see any of the other probable entrants to the race that I wouldn't say he could compete with. As mentioned, AGS didn't look good at all in his last race, SS doesn't appear to really have improved since the spring and there is no telling how much the JCGC might have taken out of Curlin and/or Lawyer Ron. So going in, he might be the fifth best horse and if his improvement over the second half of the year is not only coincidental with his switch to grass, it's not too hard for me to see a scenario where he could make the super or the tri. If the attempt goes bad, put him back on the grass for next year or wait till all of the big boys from this year are retired and try dirt again later. I don't see where there is a losing side to taking a shot.

[miraja2]

A G1 winning son of AP Indy, Storm Cat, or Gone West has a higher ceiling for a stud fee than a son of Albert the Great. Nobiz would have to dance every dance and repeatedly win G1's for him to stand above $20k-breeders arent going to pay an unreasonable stud fee on him when they can go to lines from these lines for similar or less fees. Street Sense was a typo. I meant Street Cry.
I agree with you about the higher ceiling.
But my point is that if you take a horse like Empire Maker, and ask the question 'would winning a G1 on turf have enhanced his original stud fee,' what is the answer? I don't think it would have made much of a difference because he was a son of a noted sire in Unbridled that had already shown flashes of talent. Therefore his original stud fee was already going to be - as we saw - extremely high.
A horse with a "lesser pedigree" like Nobiz has more to gain by continued on-track performance, because - although his ceiling is unquestionably lower than a horse like Empire Maker - he can only reach that ceiling with sustained on-track performance. He can't simply run eight times, show some talent, and then command top dollar. The only way he will generate any interest at all as a stallion is by demonstrating top on-track performances. I think being a G1 winner on turf would help him on that front.

[Benevolus]

How much faster than the 34 and 4 he came home in do you want him to run?

The Belmont turf is so hard that maidens are running 6f in 108 and change. His race was not that fast and he is still nothing more than a 95-100 beyer horse. The 3yr old turf horses in america are terrible as usual, but Nobiz can't compete with the top turf horses in the world or even america. Horses like Kitten's Joy, Showing Up, and even Kip Deville were much faster 3yr old turf horses. Nobiz is just well placed by a trainer that understands that horse can't compete with the top dirt horses or the top grass horses. He could move up next year, like an After Market did, but if you look at the career of Nobiz, he appears to be no faster today than he was at 2.

[parsixfarms]

Dynaformer entered stud 17 years ago. I think you'll need to come up with another example. $7,500 was alot of money back then. I don't think you can assume anything nowadays when it comes to stud fees. Especially if NoBiz turns out to be a sound horse that dominates the Turf division for the next year or two.

Recent examples are Hall of Fame horses like Holy Bull, Skip Away and Silver Charm. Neither of them was by fashionable sires, so their initial stud fees were relatively modest in comparison to their race track heroics. (I'm not commenting on their success at stud, although in the interest of full disclosure, I do currently have a mare in foal to Holy Bull.)

[Benevolus]

Right now, Nobiz would stand for about $7500. That is it. A son of Albert the Great just won't fetch much. A grade 3 winning son of AP Indy would fetch more than a grade 1 winning son of Albert the Great, especially if he is viewed as a turf sire.

I could see Nobiz in Florida or NY, not KY.

[King Glorious]

People complain about the small fields in the big races these days but then when we have a horse that could likely be one of the five or six best horses in the race, for the $5 million BC Classic, people are saying it's stupid to consider him. So should any horse that's not considered one of those top five or six also be withdrawn from consideration also and just search for an easier spot, maybe the Cigar or the Clark? Yeah, let's leave the Classic with a five horse field because it's no use taking a shot if u aren't one of the top five.

[Cajungator26]

Right now, Nobiz would stand for about $7500. That is it. A son of Albert the Great just won't fetch much. A grade 3 winning son of AP Indy would fetch more than a grade 1 winning son of Albert the Great, especially if he is viewed as a turf sire.

I could see Nobiz in Florida or NY, not KY.

Nobiz has 'nobiz' in KY, is that what you're saying? I kid. :D

[SniperSB23]

His owner is worth a zillion dollars. Running him in a tough race like that and hoping for scaps makes no sense whatsoever.

The horse has had a full campaign this year. He should run where he belongs.

See, that to me just says the opposite. If you don't care about the money then building a stallion resume isn't a big concern so why not take the shot in the BC Classic even at 30/1?

Really, I think it all should come down to two factors. First, do they think he turned the corner in his last race and is now a better horse than he was earlier in the year. And two, do they feel based on the Derby that he isn't going to excel at 10 furlongs on the dirt or do they feel there were other factors that day that accounted for the poor showing. My guess is that they don't think he had an excuse in the Derby and didn't ever want 10 furlongs on the dirt which is why the Classic isn't an option.

[miraja2]

People complain about the small fields in the big races these days but then when we have a horse that could likely be one of the five or six best horses in the race, for the $5 million BC Classic, people are saying it's stupid to consider him. So should any horse that's not considered one of those top five or six also be withdrawn from consideration also and just search for an easier spot, maybe the Cigar or the Clark? Yeah, let's leave the Classic with a five horse field because it's no use taking a shot if u aren't one of the top five.
I think there can be a difference between what we would like to see as fans/horseplayers and what we think the connections should do with their horses.
As a fan (and somebody who plans on playing the BC races) I would like to see full fields for every race. I would love for Nobiz to be in a BC race - especially the classic - because it is more fun to see a race with a big field and because some people would probably be foolish enough to bet some money on him.
The fact that, as a fan, I would like to see him in the race does not mean that I have to think it would be a smart decision on the part of his connections to actually enter him in the race.

[blackthroatedwind]

People complain about the small fields in the big races these days but then when we have a horse that could likely be one of the five or six best horses in the race, for the $5 million BC Classic, people are saying it's stupid to consider him. So should any horse that's not considered one of those top five or six also be withdrawn from consideration also and just search for an easier spot, maybe the Cigar or the Clark? Yeah, let's leave the Classic with a five horse field because it's no use taking a shot if u aren't one of the top five.


It is foolish because there are much better alternatives. If they run in a BC race he clearly should be in the Mile. The BC Turf is probably the second choice. However, Tagg, who is one of the great trainers in the game, has said he is pointing to the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. He isn't leaving this horse in the barn, and never has, but instead has picked one good spot for him after another. Yet, somehow people here apparently know better than he does where and when he should run the horse.

[NoLuvForPletch]

Right now, Nobiz would stand for about $7500. That is it. A son of Albert the Great just won't fetch much. A grade 3 winning son of AP Indy would fetch more than a grade 1 winning son of Albert the Great, especially if he is viewed as a turf sire.

I could see Nobiz in Florida or NY, not KY.

Who care's what you think he would stand for right now? Last time I checked he'll be racing next month. He's a 3 YO for Christmas sake. Not every horse has "has done enough" by the summer of their sophomore season. Everybody screams and cries about horses retiring early (Hard Spun, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, etc...) just let him be and enjoy him. He's run 3 times on turf and has won 2 grade 2's and a grade 3. Maybe he will turn into a nice sound grass horse that we can have around for a few years. You can worry about how much he'll fetch after he accomplishes something worth discussing.


The Belmont turf is so hard that maidens are running 6f in 108 and change. His race was not that fast and he is still nothing more than a 95-100 beyer horse. The 3yr old turf horses in america are terrible as usual, but Nobiz can't compete with the top turf horses in the world or even america. Horses like Kitten's Joy, Showing Up, and even Kip Deville were much faster 3yr old turf horses. Nobiz is just well placed by a trainer that understands that horse can't compete with the top dirt horses or the top grass horses. He could move up next year, like an After Market did, but if you look at the career of Nobiz, he appears to be no faster today than he was at 2.


What is wrong with the 102 beyer he earned under a hand ride on Saturday?

[Benevolus]

Nobiz has 'nobiz' in KY, is that what you're saying? I kid. :D

Exactly. :) With his name maybe they should stand him in CA or NY.

He is a nice horse but all the hype around a horse that is clearly a notch below the top horses is puzzling.

[SniperSB23]

What is wrong with the 102 beyer he earned under a hand ride on Saturday?

Don't get too caught up in the hand ride aspect of a race with extremely fast finishing fractions. The fast final fractions means it was extremely unlikely he would have gone any faster under urging.

[miraja2]

Well in a couple of years we won't have this problem because there will probably be a 9f turf race for 3YOs that will be considered a BC race. Maybe there will even be a special BC race restricted to Albert the Great's offspring.
Once they decide that they need to expand the Breeders Cup to 70 different races contested over an entire week, all of these problems will be eliminated.

[Benevolus]

Who care's what you think he would stand for right now? Last time I checked he'll be racing next month. He's a 3 YO for Christmas sake. Not every has "has done enough" by the summer of their sophomore season. Everybody screams and cries about horses retiring early (Hard Spun, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, etc...) just let him be and enjoy him. He's run 3 times on turf and has won 2 grade 2's and a grade 3. Maybe he will turn into a nice sound grass horse that we can have around for a few years. You can worry about how much he'll fetch after he accomplishes something worth discussing.





What is wrong with the 102 beyer he earned under a hand ride on Saturday?


He is coming back next year in part because he has no choice. There is no way he could fill a book. As for his 102 beyer, it fits perfectly for what he is. A horse that is a notch below the top horses. Combine that with his average pedigree and he is worth little at stud. It is just hilarious how much hype this horse gets. He is the product of a trainer that knows how to place his horses. A solid horse on dirt and turf. Nothing more.

[miraja2]

It is just hilarious how much hype this horse gets. He is the product of a trainer that knows how to place his horses. A solid horse on dirt and turf. Nothing more.
Does he really get a lot of hype? He typically doesn't on this board.

[SniperSB23]

He is coming back next year in part because he has no choice. There is no way he could fill a book. As for his 102 beyer, it fits perfectly for what he is. A horse that is a notch below the top horses. Combine that with his average pedigree and he is worth little at stud. It is just hilarious how much hype this horse gets. He is the product of a trainer that knows how to place his horses. A solid horse on dirt and turf. Nothing more.

I felt the same way until the Jamaica. He showed me there that he may turn out to be a very good horse on the turf. We will have to wait and see.

[King Glorious]

It is foolish because there are much better alternatives. If they run in a BC race he clearly should be in the Mile. The BC Turf is probably the second choice. However, Tagg, who is one of the great trainers in the game, has said he is pointing to the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. He isn't leaving this horse in the barn, and never has, but instead has picked one good spot for him after another. Yet, somehow people here apparently know better than he does where and when he should run the horse.

I'm not saying where he SHOULD run his horse or when. I'm only saying that I don't think the Classic as a thought, is a stupid one. I'm not sure that I believe that the Mile is clearly his best race if he were to be in the BC. The horse has won six stakes in his career and all but one have been at 9f. I'd have more confidence in him competing in the Classic than dropping down to compete in the Mile. Not much more confident but a little more.

Of course, I know that Tagg is much better suited to charting a course for his horse than I am. I'm not stupid. If he feels the Hollywood Derby is the better spot for him, then by all means go there. But I do think that if he's not totally closing the door on the BC, the Classic is worth considering.

[brianwspencer]

People complain about the small fields in the big races these days but then when we have a horse that could likely be one of the five or six best horses in the race, for the $5 million BC Classic, people are saying it's stupid to consider him.

If speed figures mean absolutely anything, then considering him "one of the best five or six horses in the race" would seem to be a magnificient stretch for just about anyone.

On paper, Student Council is only about a length slower than Nobiz on the dirt.

If by "best five or six," you meant "slowest two or three" then yea, I totally agree.

If he went, you could at least hope for a field of eight...that way you couldn't lose on either account.

[NoLuvForPletch]

He is coming back next year in part because he has no choice. There is no way he could fill a book. As for his 102 beyer, it fits perfectly for what he is. A horse that is a notch below the top horses. Combine that with his average pedigree and he is worth little at stud. It is just hilarious how much hype this horse gets. He is the product of a trainer that knows how to place his horses. A solid horse on dirt and turf. Nothing more.

So am I to assume that horses don't mature in your world after 3? How about if he is still learning? Is that a possibility? Castellano had to yank him to the outside pretty hard, what happens when he figures it ALL out and gets there on his own? What has this horse done to make people dislike him so much?

[King Glorious]

If speed figures mean absolutely anything, then considering him "one of the best five or six horses in the race" would seem to be a magnificient stretch for just about anyone.

On paper, Student Council is only about a length slower than Nobiz on the dirt.

If by "best five or six," you meant "slowest two or three" then yea, I totally agree.

If he went, you could at least hope for a field of eight...that way you couldn't lose on either account.

After you get past Curlin, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, Lawyer Ron and Hard Spun, tell me which other horses that are pointed to the race outclass Nobiz from a speed figure perspective?

[Benevolus]

I don't think that Haskin is clueless, and I enjoy his enthusiasm, which comes across so clearly in his writing.

He is wrong in this case -- and you agree -- and I think it would be interesting if "SteveHaskin" explained his comment in this venue.

True. He is not clueless. I should have said he was clueless on this issue. Nobody can take a guy seriously that said what he said about Nobiz. There are horses running today like Crossing the Line and his stablemate Showing Up (both with injuries now) that have much quicker turns of foot. I don't even think he has a quicker turn of foot than horses like Sunriver or After Market. He just ran on a turf course that is currently as hard as concrete.

I still have no idea why guys like Haskin love this horse so much. Must be the free dinners or something he is getting from the guys who stand Albert the Great. LOL. Although those guys do spend quite a bit advertising on the horse, which makes me wonder.

[Benevolus]

After you get past Curlin, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, Lawyer Ron and Hard Spun, tell me which other horses that are pointed to the race outclass Nobiz from a speed figure perspective?

A bunch of horses, many who aren't going because they are too slow. Horses like Fairbanks, Master Command, Grasshopper, Political Force, etc. Nobiz is a 100 beyer type horse. There is nothing special about him on dirt. Maybe he will turn out to be a great turf horse, although doubtful, but he just is not a Breeders Cup Classic horse. I don't even think he could win a race like the Clark.

[brianwspencer]

After you get past Curlin, Street Sense, Any Given Saturday, Lawyer Ron and Hard Spun, tell me which other horses that are pointed to the race outclass Nobiz from a speed figure perspective?

Tiago is faster on paper. Diamond Stripes is faster on paper.

Heck, if Zanjero were to go, he would even be up to giving Nobiz fits in the fight for 8th given his recent form.

Throw in the fact that at a mile and a quarter, Student Council is even arguably faster than Nobiz (considering that Student Council's mile and a quarter numbers of late are essentially within a length to a length and a half of Nobiz's top dirt races at any distance), it looks like you're left with maybe Awesome Gem being slower than Nobiz.

It's a moot point considering that Nobiz is not going, but if he were, at this time it would appear that nearly all of the probables for the race are faster than he is -- especially going a mile and quarter.

That's nine I can count, just off the top of my head.

[Indian Charlie]

the most absurd thing is that there is a thread discussing slobiz that has gone on for at least four pages now.

personally, i think the storm cat filly that won the turf stakes the other day at belmont is more appealing!

[hoovesupsideyourhead]

lest we forget great hunter .bwanna bull,imawildandcrazy guy... wondering boy..who i think would love monmouth

[KY_Sasquash]

It is foolish because there are much better alternatives. If they run in a BC race he clearly should be in the Mile. The BC Turf is probably the second choice. However, Tagg, who is one of the great trainers in the game, has said he is pointing to the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. He isn't leaving this horse in the barn, and never has, but instead has picked one good spot for him after another. Yet, somehow people here apparently know better than he does where and when he should run the horse.

I agree Tagg is a great trainer and nowhere am I telling Tagg how to train his horse. I was merely stating an opinion that as a fan would like to see him run in the Classic. None on the top contenders look like Ghostzapper to me. The race could be run 5 times and there could 5 different winners b/c the top contenders are pretty equal so I dont think it would be the craziest idea.

[brianwspencer]

I agree Tagg is a great trainer and nowhere am I telling Tagg how to train his horse. I was merely stating an opinion that as a fan would like to see him run in the Classic. None on the top contenders look like Ghostzapper to me. The race could be run 5 times and there could 5 different winners b/c the top contenders are pretty equal so I dont think it would be the craziest idea.

But he still wouldn't be one of them.

[King Glorious]

Tiago is faster on paper. Diamond Stripes is faster on paper.

Heck, if Zanjero were to go, he would even be up to giving Nobiz fits in the fight for 8th given his recent form.

Throw in the fact that at a mile and a quarter, Student Council is even arguably faster than Nobiz (considering that Student Council's mile and a quarter numbers of late are essentially within a length to a length and a half of Nobiz's top dirt races at any distance), it looks like you're left with maybe Awesome Gem being slower than Nobiz.

It's a moot point considering that Nobiz is not going, but if he were, at this time it would appear that nearly all of the probables for the race are faster than he is -- especially going a mile and quarter.


That's nine I can count, just off the top of my head.

OK so Diamond Stripes just came up with a 105 while beating Xchanger by less than a length in the Meadowlands Cup. So I guess now Xchanger is faster than Nobiz. Student Council sure did look faster running that 97 figure in Chicago a couple of weeks ago, proving that the slow time and figure of the Pacific Classic wasn't a fluke. Zanjero is faster? How do u say Tiago is faster but maybe Awesome Gem is slower when Awesome Gem just lost by a nose to Tiago? Either u think they are both faster or both maybe slower.

The other poster mentioned Fairbanks, Master Command, Political Force and Grasshopper. Apparently he missed Grasshopper's run in Louisiana. I don't know if the other three are even pointed to the race and even if they are, none of them have ever shown the consistency to make u believe that they are going to throw up their best race. Nobiz might not be the fifth or sixth best horse. But if he's truly improved as a racehorse and it's not just the grass, there is no way that I'd say that those horses that have been named are proven better than him.

Unless they really feel like he doesn't want 10f on dirt and that his improvement is strictly a result of the switch to grass, I don't think taking a shot is a bad idea.

[KY_Sasquash]

But he still wouldn't be one of them.


neither did Volponi, Cat Thief and Arcangues among others

[ateamstupid]

But he still wouldn't be one of them.

Precisely. There's a difference between a race that's wide open due to an abundance of talent and one that's wide open because of a dearth of talent. This year's Classic is the former and Nobiz would be one of the slowest horses in the field because of it.

[brianwspencer]

OK so Diamond Stripes just came up with a 105 while beating Xchanger by less than a length in the Meadowlands Cup. So I guess now Xchanger is faster than Nobiz. Student Council sure did look faster running that 97 figure in Chicago a couple of weeks ago, proving that the slow time and figure of the Pacific Classic wasn't a fluke. Zanjero is faster? How do u say Tiago is faster but maybe Awesome Gem is slower when Awesome Gem just lost by a nose to Tiago? Either u think they are both faster or both maybe slower.

I wasn't as familiar with Awesome Gem's PPs, so I didn't include him -- but I guess you're right. He's probably a faster 10f dirt horse too. Make that ten.

Zanjero is capable of running a figure in the triple digits. Diamond Stripes has run more than one. Nobiz has proven capable of running in the very low 100s on his better days, at his best distances, on dirt.

So really, anyone who can run a figure of 102 on dirt can compete with Nobiz And Student Council has run a 99 and a 97, both at a mile and a quarter, which put him within a few points of Nobiz's better dirt Beyers. I'm hardly saying that Student Council is a legit contender to take the BC Classic, but he just about equally as unlikely as Nobiz would have been.

[Danzig]

i don't think tagg is making a mistake at all. i think nobiz doesn't fit in either turf race, and i see no reason to run him in the classic. he runs better on turf, tagg said he has run down issues when on dirt.

everyone talks about trainers being too ambitious with spotting, or not running often enough. neither apply here.
tagg has a race in mind, at the ideal distance for his horse. what's wrong with that? not all bc races fit all horses, this being one of them.

[Danzig]

I wasn't as familiar with Awesome Gem's PPs, so I didn't include him -- but I guess you're right. He's probably a faster 10f dirt horse too. Make that ten.

Zanjero is capable of running a figure in the triple digits. Diamond Stripes has run more than one. Nobiz has proven capable of running in the very low 100s on his better days, at his best distances, on dirt.

So really, anyone who can run a figure of 102 on dirt can compete with Nobiz And Student Council has run a 99 and a 97, both at a mile and a quarter, which put him within a few points of Nobiz's better dirt Beyers. I'm hardly saying that Student Council is a legit contender to take the BC Classic, but he just about equally as unlikely as Nobiz would have been.


and student council may well go to japan rather than the bc. perhaps they think he has a better shot there.
now if only more people would make these kinds of decisions with their supposed derby horses.

[King Glorious]

I wasn't as familiar with Awesome Gem's PPs, so I didn't include him -- but I guess you're right. He's probably a faster 10f dirt horse too. Make that ten.

Zanjero is capable of running a figure in the triple digits. Diamond Stripes has run more than one. Nobiz has proven capable of running in the very low 100s on his better days, at his best distances, on dirt.

So really, anyone who can run a figure of 102 on dirt can compete with Nobiz And Student Council has run a 99 and a 97, both at a mile and a quarter, which put him within a few points of Nobiz's better dirt Beyers. I'm hardly saying that Student Council is a legit contender to take the BC Classic, but he just about equally as unlikely as Nobiz would have been.

So we are basically agreeing then. You are acknowledging that once you get past what I call the Big Four, Nobiz fits right in with the rest of them. And it's worth keeping in mind that when Nobiz was running his best dirt figures, it was early in the year. I don't think it's too outrageous to think that there is a possibility that he's a better horse now than he was in the spring.

[ateamstupid]

So we are basically agreeing then. You are acknowledging that once you get past what I call the Big Four, Nobiz fits right in with the rest of them. And it's worth keeping in mind that when Nobiz was running his best dirt figures, it was early in the year. I don't think it's too outrageous to think that there is a possibility that he's a better horse now than he was in the spring.

Possibility? Sure. Likely? Nah. We're talking about a horse that has barely developed a step figure-wise throughout his career, and that's exactly what made him somewhat of a bust on the Triple Crown trail. I find it hard to believe that he'd develop more in three months of racing (last on dirt in July, getting smacked by Any Given Saturday) than he did through his first 10.

When you have a valuable and talented, if unspectacular, dirt horse who may turn out to be a super turf runner, "we could possibly be the fifth fastest horse in this race" doesn't seem to me like enough justification for a Classic try.

[SniperSB23]

OK so Diamond Stripes just came up with a 105 while beating Xchanger by less than a length in the Meadowlands Cup. So I guess now Xchanger is faster than Nobiz. Student Council sure did look faster running that 97 figure in Chicago a couple of weeks ago, proving that the slow time and figure of the Pacific Classic wasn't a fluke. Zanjero is faster? How do u say Tiago is faster but maybe Awesome Gem is slower when Awesome Gem just lost by a nose to Tiago? Either u think they are both faster or both maybe slower.

The other poster mentioned Fairbanks, Master Command, Political Force and Grasshopper. Apparently he missed Grasshopper's run in Louisiana. I don't know if the other three are even pointed to the race and even if they are, none of them have ever shown the consistency to make u believe that they are going to throw up their best race. Nobiz might not be the fifth or sixth best horse. But if he's truly improved as a racehorse and it's not just the grass, there is no way that I'd say that those horses that have been named are proven better than him.

Unless they really feel like he doesn't want 10f on dirt and that his improvement is strictly a result of the switch to grass, I don't think taking a shot is a bad idea.

So one 93 Beyer offsets the fact that Grasshopper has two Beyers higher than anything Nobiz has run? What is Nobiz's high Beyer on the dirt, like a 98? So his best day can beat Grasshopper's worst by 3 lengths. Plus Grasshopper has his best figure at 10 furlongs.

[Coach Pants]

This thread is insane. Looney Tunes.

That's all folks.

[brianwspencer]

So we are basically agreeing then. You are acknowledging that once you get past what I call the Big Four, Nobiz fits right in with the rest of them. And it's worth keeping in mind that when Nobiz was running his best dirt figures, it was early in the year. I don't think it's too outrageous to think that there is a possibility that he's a better horse now than he was in the spring.

No, we are not agreeing. Diamond Stripes is faster than Nobiz. Tiago is faster than Nobiz, and by proxy Awesome Gem would be too.

That puts him at least ninth on paper after you get past the obvious five.

So he'd get to scrum with Zanjero and Student Council for the last-place trifecta spots in my hypothetical field.

Sounds like a perfect reason for them to send him to the Classic. He's not even in the same zip code as the types of horses who are going to fight for the win, and is quite arguably, not even a contender for a midpack finish given the likely field.

The horse is exactly as fast on dirt this year as he was in his very first start. Horses like that don't win the BC Classic because they pop some decent race on rock hard turf at Belmont.

You're getting a bit carried away. Diamond Stripes would easily beat him, and that horse's best shot is to fill out the super.

[King Glorious]

Possibility? Sure. Likely? Nah. We're talking about a horse that has barely developed a step figure-wise throughout his career, and that's exactly what made him somewhat of a bust on the Triple Crown trail. I find it hard to believe that he'd develop more in three months of racing (last on dirt in July, getting smacked by Any Given Saturday) than he did through his first 10.

When you have a valuable and talented, if unspectacular, dirt horse who may turn out to be a super turf runner, "we could possibly be the fifth fastest horse in this race" doesn't seem to me like enough justification for a Classic try.

That Nobiz wasn't developing, figure-wise, from his 2yo to his 3yo season was disturbing to me. It made me think that he wasn't going to improve at all and had reached his top level early. But I don't know if it's fair to say that he's not improving anymore based on his recent figures. Turf figures are basically useless. Granted, his last dirt figure in the Dwyer, didn't seem to indicate that he had turned any kind of corner but his last couple make me wonder. Especially this past weekend. He looked like a much better horse than I've ever seen him look. It wasn't the time or the figure but the way he ran. I don't think it would even take much improvement from where he was in the spring to put him right in the picture here and if one or more of the top ones doesn't bring his "A game", who knows? And let's be honest. Nobody is saying that Street Sense and Hard Spun don't belong and their numbers this summer don't suggest they blow Nobiz away. In fact, because SS ran a 108 in the BC Juvenile and a 111 in the Preakness before his last couple, it could also be argued that he hasn't developed either. Only in his case, he was already a little higher than Nobiz. I just don't see any reason why SS can be considered a prime contender while running a 108 in the Travers and Nobiz shouldn't even be considered.

If this was a situation where they were making a decision between the Classic and one of the other BC races, even though I think the Classic attempt would be worth taking, I could understand going in another race. But I'm not sure why running in the Classic, even if he finished dead last, would stop him from maybe becoming, as u put it, a super turf runner.

[King Glorious]

No, we are not agreeing. Diamond Stripes is faster than Nobiz. Tiago is faster than Nobiz, and by proxy Awesome Gem would be too.

That puts him at least ninth on paper after you get past the obvious five.

So he'd get to scrum with Zanjero and Student Council for the last-place trifecta spots in my hypothetical field.

Sounds like a perfect reason for them to send him to the Classic. He's not even in the same zip code as the types of horses who are going to fight for the win, and is quite arguably, not even a contender for a midpack finish given the likely field.

The horse is exactly as fast on dirt this year as he was in his very first start. Horses like that don't win the BC Classic because they pop some decent race on rock hard turf at Belmont.

You're getting a bit carried away. Diamond Stripes would easily beat him, and that horse's best shot is to fill out the super.

You know, I'd bet that prior to this past weekend, you would have told me that Diamond Stripes would easily beat Xchanger too. Yet he was just all out to hold off that one in NJ.

The fact is that all of you that are saying Nobiz would have no shot are basing that on the fact that you believe he's no better now than he's ever been. I don't concede that as the truth. If it is the truth, then you are right. If he has improved from the spring though, his numbers would fit in with the rest of the field. I'm not arguing that he's a threat to win the race. I don't think he is. I think he rates behind the top four. Maybe that alone is reason not to look at the race if they would be going in with their best hope being third or fourth. But when that third or fourth is in the BC Classic, I can live with that.

[brianwspencer]

You know, I'd bet that prior to this past weekend, you would have told me that Diamond Stripes would easily beat Xchanger too. Yet he was just all out to hold off that one in NJ.

The fact is that all of you that are saying Nobiz would have no shot are basing that on the fact that you believe he's no better now than he's ever been. I don't concede that as the truth. If it is the truth, then you are right. If he has improved from the spring though, his numbers would fit in with the rest of the field. I'm not arguing that he's a threat to win the race. I don't think he is. I think he rates behind the top four. Maybe that alone is reason not to look at the race if they would be going in with their best hope being third or fourth. But when that third or fourth is in the BC Classic, I can live with that.

That's fine. We're obviously thinking very differently about things.

By the way, when you now say "top four" which of Street Sense, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, or Any Given Saturday are you insinuating that he is ahead of? Ask pretty much anyone, and he's not even in the same league as those guys.

You think he's fifth or sixth best on paper and capable of bring "third or fourth". I think that's a pipe dream and that he maybe gets the better of Student Council.

Good thing he's not going. It might have been hard for you to look back at this thread after he got abused through furlongs number nine and ten.

[Indian Charlie]

This thread is insane. Looney Tunes.

That's all folks.

amen to that. i thought i was the only one who thought this thread makes no sense.

i've seen some of morty's threads that left me less perplexed!

[ateamstupid]

If this was a situation where they were making a decision between the Classic and one of the other BC races, even though I think the Classic attempt would be worth taking, I could understand going in another race. But I'm not sure why running in the Classic, even if he finished dead last, would stop him from maybe becoming, as u put it, a super turf runner.

I'd say that the Classic would be pretty strenuous and require more rigorous training than perhaps, training up to the Hollywood Derby would. The horse may have finally found his niche, keep him where he's at.

[King Glorious]

That's fine. We're obviously thinking very differently about things.

By the way, when you now say "top four" which of Street Sense, Hard Spun, Lawyer Ron, Curlin, or Any Given Saturday are you insinuating that he is ahead of? Ask pretty much anyone, and he's not even in the same league as those guys.

You think he's fifth or sixth best on paper and capable of bring "third or fourth". I think that's a pipe dream and that he maybe gets the better of Student Council.

Good thing he's not going. It might have been hard for you to look back at this thread after he got abused through furlongs number nine and ten.

Because of the way I think the race will be run, I don't give Hard Spun a shot in hell of doing anything. The others are my top four and frankly, I'm not sold on Street Sense or Any Given Saturday. If they both run their best races, I think they are in the mix. But just as people have been saying about Nobiz, I'm not sure that I see a better SS now than I did at this time last year. His Travers figure wasn't any better than the Juvenile and wasn't as good as his Derby and Preakness. Whereas usually the top 3yo's improve as the year goes on (Curlin, AGS and Hard Spun have), Street Sense has gone the wrong way. With AGS, he improved a ton in winning the Dwyer and the Haskell but I think his last race tempered a lot of the growing enthusiam about him. I feel that if Curlin and Lawyer Ron both run theirs, they are the only two that matter here. And I'm leery of that happening. The JCGC was a very tough race and it wouldn't be surprising to see one of them regress from it. For Lawyer Ron, it was his third straight 114+ race. Can he produce a fourth straight, all in the span of two months, at a distance that's a touch beyond his best, with another quality horse like Hard Spun challenging him up front instead of the pig from the JCGC?

I know all of this has made it seem like I'm sold on Nobiz having a shot to win. I'm not at all. I just am less sold on the quality and strengths of the others than it seems like most people are.

[horseofcourse]

I can't believe the abuse Nobiz takes on these boards. Incredible. This is a darn good horse. I thought he ran his career high dirt Beyer his last time out on dirt losing to AGS or am I missing something?? Wouldn't that show improvement? Turf Beyers are a complete waste of time. I saw a horse running fast at the end of the Jamaica. He's had a very nice year. Nothing else noteworthy here.

[Benevolus]

I can't believe the abuse Nobiz takes on these boards. Incredible. This is a darn good horse. I thought he ran his career high dirt Beyer his last time out on dirt losing to AGS or am I missing something?? Wouldn't that show improvement? Turf Beyers are a complete waste of time. I saw a horse running fast at the end of the Jamaica. He's had a very nice year. Nothing else noteworthy here.

He doesn't get abused, the posters inflate his talent and the rest of the people see the reality of it. He might one day be great, but he has done nothing yet to deserve the praise he gets on boards and in the media. You can't run basically the same figures you ran as a two year old and expect praise. He is a nice horse, nothing more. If he was better, the trainer, who is excellent at knowing what he has and placing it appropriately, would be going to the Breeders Cup. This horse is just too slow. Last years horse, Showing Up, was fast enough, but really a 9f horse, and the BCM and the BCT were just bad fits for him. Tagg knows what he has and he thinks right now the horse is not a BC caliber horse.

[King Glorious]

He doesn't get abused, the posters inflate his talent and the rest of the people see the reality of it. He might one day be great, but he has done nothing yet to deserve the praise he gets on boards and in the media. You can't run basically the same figures you ran as a two year old and expect praise. He is a nice horse, nothing more. If he was better, the trainer, who is excellent at knowing what he has and placing it appropriately, would be going to the Breeders Cup. This horse is just too slow. Last years horse, Showing Up, was fast enough, but really a 9f horse, and the BCM and the BCT were just bad fits for him. Tagg knows what he has and he thinks right now the horse is not a BC caliber horse.

Street Sense in the BC Juvenile-108
Jim Dandy-105
Travers-108
KY Cup Classic-107

Street Sense is doing exactly what you are saying a horse can't do and expect praise. The difference is that his numbers were high enough to start with while Nobiz' weren't. One other difference is that Nobiz, in his last dirt race, ran his career best dirt number and has looked even better in his turf races, suggesting that it's possible that he's turned into a better horse and could even improve that Dwyer figure he got if put back on the dirt. If he could improve it to the area of 107-108, I think that puts him squarely in the picture with horses like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun. Again though, I'm not over inflating his talent. I have thought there was room for growth from him and it seems like he's maybe starting to grow. But my biggest thing is the lack of faith in those he'd be competing against. If it was a field of Ghostzapper, Roses in May, Pleasantly Perfect, etc, several horses that were routinely going in the mid 110's, that would be different. But I wouldn't be scared off by the 103 AGS just ran or the back to back to back 105/108/107 that SS has strung together.

[King Glorious]

Master Command is out.
Zanjero is out.
Grasshopper is out.
Diamond Stripes is likely going to the Dirt Mile.
Political Force is out.
Student Council may run in Japan.

[Benevolus]

Street Sense in the BC Juvenile-108
Jim Dandy-105
Travers-108
KY Cup Classic-107

Street Sense is doing exactly what you are saying a horse can't do and expect praise. The difference is that his numbers were high enough to start with while Nobiz' weren't. One other difference is that Nobiz, in his last dirt race, ran his career best dirt number and has looked even better in his turf races, suggesting that it's possible that he's turned into a better horse and could even improve that Dwyer figure he got if put back on the dirt. If he could improve it to the area of 107-108, I think that puts him squarely in the picture with horses like Street Sense and Any Given Saturday and Hard Spun. Again though, I'm not over inflating his talent. I have thought there was room for growth from him and it seems like he's maybe starting to grow. But my biggest thing is the lack of faith in those he'd be competing against. If it was a field of Ghostzapper, Roses in May, Pleasantly Perfect, etc, several horses that were routinely going in the mid 110's, that would be different. But I wouldn't be scared off by the 103 AGS just ran or the back to back to back 105/108/107 that SS has strung together.


Ok. Nobiz and Street Sense have both basically stayed the same. However the one was fast to begin with. Also, the others have now caught Street Sense and I would be shocked if Street Sense hit the board at Monmouth.

The real question you have to ask yourself is if Nobiz was fast enough to run in the race why wouldn't Tagg run him there? Also, why was the dirt abandoned for the turf. Because he could never be a top caliber dirt horse and they are hoping he can be on the turf, which is still a question, because like he did on the dirt, he beat a bunch of decent horses and we won't know until he actually beats "real" grass horses.

[King Glorious]

Ok. Nobiz and Street Sense have both basically stayed the same. However the one was fast to begin with. Also, the others have now caught Street Sense and I would be shocked if Street Sense hit the board at Monmouth.

The real question you have to ask yourself is if Nobiz was fast enough to run in the race why wouldn't Tagg run him there? Also, why was the dirt abandoned for the turf. Because he could never be a top caliber dirt horse and they are hoping he can be on the turf, which is still a question, because like he did on the dirt, he beat a bunch of decent horses and we won't know until he actually beats "real" grass horses.

Well, I don't know that I'd say that Street Sense was fast. He's obviously been fast enough and he's run some really good races. But the fact that he's still running the same figures now as he was able to run as a 2yo doesn't bode well for him trying to make the leap from a high of 111 up to the range of 114-118 that it's apparently going to take for him to reach the level that Curlin and Lawyer Ron have been running at. It's my belief that, considering that his last race on dirt was his best one, there is more reason to believe that Nobiz is capable of jumping up to the 108 range that it might take to be in the mix for third than SS is of making the leap to the 115 or so it might take to win.

[Benevolus]

Well, I don't know that I'd say that Street Sense was fast. He's obviously been fast enough and he's run some really good races. But the fact that he's still running the same figures now as he was able to run as a 2yo doesn't bode well for him trying to make the leap from a high of 111 up to the range of 114-118 that it's apparently going to take for him to reach the level that Curlin and Lawyer Ron have been running at. It's my belief that, considering that his last race on dirt was his best one, there is more reason to believe that Nobiz is capable of jumping up to the 108 range that it might take to be in the mix for third than SS is of making the leap to the 115 or so it might take to win.

Highly doubtful Nobiz will ever see the dirt again and beyers don't mean too much on grass, just who you beat. Street Sense needs the right setup, but he might get it. A 108-110 might be all that is needed in the Breeders Cup. Lawyer Ron might not fire at 10f and Curlin and Hard Spun don't seem to love Monmouth. Any Given Saturday might fire off the 115 though, especially considering he had the easy last race and he likes Monmouth. Tiago is one to watch though.

Nobiz would not pick up a check in this race. He is likely to win the race at Hollywood Park. That is why he isn't running here.

[King Glorious]

Highly doubtful Nobiz will ever see the dirt again and beyers don't mean too much on grass, just who you beat. Street Sense needs the right setup, but he might get it. A 108-110 might be all that is needed in the Breeders Cup. Lawyer Ron might not fire at 10f and Curlin and Hard Spun don't seem to love Monmouth. Any Given Saturday might fire off the 115 though, especially considering he had the easy last race and he likes Monmouth. Tiago is one to watch though.

Nobiz would not pick up a check in this race. He is likely to win the race at Hollywood Park. That is why he isn't running here.

Street Sense, Hard Spun, AGS, Tiago, Lawyer Ron. All five can't hit the board. Should some of them skip the BC and run in the Cigar or the Clark since they may not hit the board here? U do realize that the horse that u are saying is one to watch (Tiago) just ran 106 and 103.

[King Glorious]

For all of those that said we should defer to Tagg's expertise and that he would skip the BC because the Hollywood Derby was a better spot for his horse, yadda yadda, guess who's entered in the BC Mile? Now, I know that some will say that it probably wasn't his call and the owner wanted it. Could be true. But then who would get the credit if Nobiz happens to win the race? Tagg or the owner?

[hockey2315]

What's your point? Maybe the horse came out of his last race in good order and seems set to move up. . .

[Kasept]

For all of those that said we should defer to Tagg's expertise and that he would skip the BC because the Hollywood Derby was a better spot for his horse, yadda yadda, guess who's entered in the BC Mile? Now, I know that some will say that it probably wasn't his call and the owner wanted it. Could be true. But then who would get the credit if Nobiz happens to win the race? Tagg or the owner?
There's something wrong with him having the option of going in the Mile or the HOL Derby? And if the horse were to win the Mile, Mrs. Valando will have not had much to do with his preparation. If she wanted to go, and Barclay didn't, he'll still do everything possible to get him ready for the best performance possible.

[ArlJim78]

For all of those that said we should defer to Tagg's expertise and that he would skip the BC because the Hollywood Derby was a better spot for his horse, yadda yadda, guess who's entered in the BC Mile? Now, I know that some will say that it probably wasn't his call and the owner wanted it. Could be true. But then who would get the credit if Nobiz happens to win the race? Tagg or the owner?
isn't it possible to defer to Taggs expertise if he instead goes to the BC? deferring to his expertise means just that, whichever way he goes.

[Cannon Shell]

For all of those that said we should defer to Tagg's expertise and that he would skip the BC because the Hollywood Derby was a better spot for his horse, yadda yadda, guess who's entered in the BC Mile? Now, I know that some will say that it probably wasn't his call and the owner wanted it. Could be true. But then who would get the credit if Nobiz happens to win the race? Tagg or the owner?
I would say that Tagg is much more interested in trying to win a race and make money than worry about who gets the credit.

[Linny]

Street Sense, Hard Spun, AGS, Tiago, Lawyer Ron. All five can't hit the board. Should some of them skip the BC and run in the Cigar or the Clark since they may not hit the board here? U do realize that the horse that u are saying is one to watch (Tiago) just ran 106 and 103.

They cant ALL hit the board but any of them could hit the board. That said, why skip a $m race in which you have a decent shot of hitting the board in favor of a $300k race? If the mile on dirt is your thing, there's a $1 on offer the day before the Classic and none of these horses was pre entered. The fact is that very little separates the the BCC runners this year, at least on paper.

As for Nobiz, I hope he runs and does well. He was a live late 2yo and was competitive (if not outstanding) on the Derby trail. He was a decent 2nd to AGS in the Dwyer and has gone 3 for 3 on grass, while showing new maturity. Tagg is not a credit taker. He doesn't care if it was his idea or the owners to run in the BC. He wants to win races and earn money.

Maybe its because the cream of last year is retired (Bernardini) or dead (Barbaro) but the "olders" this year are sure making the 3yo's, both dirt and turf, look pretty good.

[freddymo]

It is foolish because there are much better alternatives. If they run in a BC race he clearly should be in the Mile. The BC Turf is probably the second choice. However, Tagg, who is one of the great trainers in the game, has said he is pointing to the Grade 1 Hollywood Derby. He isn't leaving this horse in the barn, and never has, but instead has picked one good spot for him after another. Yet, somehow people here apparently know better than he does where and when he should run the horse.
Sometimes you are so brilliant

[NoChanceToDance]

So, is he going to run in the mile, or has the pre entry just been made as an alternative for the Hollywood race?

I'd like to see him in the mile. I'd have a fairly large reserved exacta with him and Excellent Art.

[Benevolus]

For all of those that said we should defer to Tagg's expertise and that he would skip the BC because the Hollywood Derby was a better spot for his horse, yadda yadda, guess who's entered in the BC Mile? Now, I know that some will say that it probably wasn't his call and the owner wanted it. Could be true. But then who would get the credit if Nobiz happens to win the race? Tagg or the owner?

He isn't running in the BC Mile. He is just pre-entered. A horse like Obrien's walks faster than Nobiz runs. If you are lucky Nobiz will show up in the BC Mile and you will finally see just how slow he is when he runs against a real grade 1 caliber miler on the turf. Excellent Art would eat him for lunch. Even horses like Kip Deville would laugh at him. He isn't even the fastest miler in his own barn and his barn isn't George Washington and Excellent Art but Showing Up and Nobiz. Showing Up could hold his own if healthy but Nobiz would be lucky to finish within 7 or 8 of the winner.

This was a sporting thing of Tagg to do but I doubt he ever really even considered it.

[The Bid]

I cant take anymore

[King Glorious]

He isn't running in the BC Mile. He is just pre-entered. A horse like Obrien's walks faster than Nobiz runs. If you are lucky Nobiz will show up in the BC Mile and you will finally see just how slow he is when he runs against a real grade 1 caliber miler on the turf. Excellent Art would eat him for lunch. Even horses like Kip Deville would laugh at him. He isn't even the fastest miler in his own barn and his barn isn't George Washington and Excellent Art but Showing Up and Nobiz. Showing Up could hold his own if healthy but Nobiz would be lucky to finish within 7 or 8 of the winner.

This was a sporting thing of Tagg to do but I doubt he ever really even considered it.

I still think he's going to run. O'Brien's horse did handle him and Kip Deville did too. I didn't think that Nobiz ran a bad race though in finishing fourth. I thought he acquitted himself very well.